Wednesday's Nor'easter to have lower impact than originally feared

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:11 PM GMT on November 06, 2012

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An early-season Nor'easter is taking shape along the coast of South Carolina today, but is now forecast to be weaker and move farther offshore than originally forecast, resulting in lower impacts to the New Jersey and New York coasts than originally feared. The storm will head north-northeast along the coast on Wednesday, intensifying into a 990 mb Nor'easter, a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY, by Wednesday evening. The storm will likely bring wind gusts up to 50 mph and a storm surge of 2 - 3 feet along the coasts of Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, including New York City. High waves of 10 - 20 feet will ride on top of this surge, and cause moderate beach erosion along much of the coastline damaged by Hurricane Sandy. The greatest flooding will occur during the Wednesday early afternoon high tide cycle, near 1 pm EST. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between the new moon and full moon. The Nor'easter's strongest winds will likely affect eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, where wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible Wednesday evening and Thursday. The storm's heaviest rains will stay offshore, and only Eastern Massachusetts can expect to see more than 1" of rain. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit snowfall amounts to perhaps 1 - 2" along a swath from Northern New Jersey northeastwards, across Western Massachusetts and into Maine. While the storm will slow down recovery efforts from Hurricane Sandy, this is a pretty ordinary Nor'easter of the type the Northeast sees several times per year, and will not cause major damage.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for 1 pm EST Wednesday, November 7, 2012, from the 12Z (7 am EST) run of the GFS model made on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to affect Southern New Jersey, eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts, but miss the areas hardest hit by Sandy--northern New Jersey and the New York City area.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Sandy Hook, NJ for Wednesday's Nor'easter, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.7', occurring Wednesday afternoon. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 pm Wednesday afternoon, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.8' around 1 pm Wednesday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 8.6' storm surge to Sandy Hook before their tide gauge failed, with the storm tide reaching 13.2' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.)

More Sandy links
I gave a TED talk in Bermuda in October 2011, and presented a list of nine potential $100 billion weather disasters that could happen in the next 30 years. Number six on my list was a hurricane hitting New York City. “We really don’t know what climate change is going to do to hurricanes,” I said, “but it makes sense that it’ll probably make the strongest ones stronger.” If you want to see what I had to say about a hurricane hitting New York City, plus the other eight disasters I think have at least a 10% chance of happening in the next 30 years, the 18-minute video is up on the main TED site. (I've since updated my list to twelve potential $100 billion disasters, and plan on running a blog series on the topic in 2013.)

Was Sandy a hurricane at landfall? Lee Grenci, a senior lecturer and forecaster at the Department of Meteorology at Penn State, weighs in on the matter in this guest blog post. He presents evidence that Sandy was not a hurricane at landfall, and was instead a rapidly evolving hybrid storm. Lee , who is a frequent contributor to Weatherwise magazine, will be joining wunderground as a featured blogger in December, and we're looking forward to having his excellent writings!

Be sure to vote today!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting goosegirl1:




There is truth, in that any of these disasters *could* happen- but that web site is actually there to sell disaster bug-out kits and emergency supplies, not supply scientific information. The likelihood of any of these disasters is real, but very small. All life is a risk, just like this:Link
Yes I thought it was a scam site also..but dont like that huge wave coming across from africa after the landslide etc..what a disaster That would be huh..miami..gone
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40806
2 minJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Nam feedback frenzy develops warm core rogue storm within cold overall envelope. Similar to nov 1968 but 150 further east Nasty beast


5 minJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Nam develops almost hurricane like feature in ne coastal waters.. with excessive snow acc forecast S Jersey http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/265924418 461634561/photo/1
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

NAM-WRF 4km says to hell with Nor'easter, goes tropical with near-major hurricane. Unbelievable model run. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/265924562519199 745/photo/1
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
_____________________________

Major Montana snowstorm
CA. Sierra Nevada snow showers



click on the image for a bigger picture...4x bigger to see all details

I'll be working on the Nor'easter in the next hour...it's a hard thing but worth doing for all of you guys.


Thanks Max..I'll be watching for the up-date..
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37 sRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

4-km NAM is off the chain, 972 mb in 18-hours, tight-inner core, near major hurricane force winds. wtf? http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/265922741478232 064
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

RT @accupovick: Buoy 225 miles south of Cape Hatteras reporting pressure at 1009 mb and falling quickly.
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
Quoting LargoFl:
any truth to this?..5 natural disasters headed to the united states........Link




There is truth, in that any of these disasters *could* happen- but that web site is actually there to sell disaster bug-out kits and emergency supplies, not supply scientific information. The likelihood of any of these disasters is real, but very small. All life is a risk, just like this:Link
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AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Accu mets expect 2'- to locally 4' water rise on top of tide level from ~Ocean City, MD, through Atlantic City, NJ. with next storm.
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
_____________________________

Major Montana snowstorm
CA. Sierra Nevada snow showers



click on the image for a bigger picture...4x bigger to see all details

I'll be working on the Nor'easter in the next hour...it's a hard thing but worth doing for all of you guys.
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100 LargoFl: Before, I laughed at this, but after Sandy, I dunno...............
"Researchers at Georgia Tech and at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., have measured a near doubling in the annual number of Category 4 and 5 storms during the past 35 years. And Kerry Emanuel, professor of meteorology at MIT, has found that Atlantic storms today wield twice the destructive force as those in 1970.
"

That's from August(Emanuel) and September(GeorgiaTech&NCAR) of 2005,
about which Dr. Jeff Masters blogged on 27March2006:
However, there is a large amount of uncertainty in the hurricane intensity data used by both papers, and their findings should be considered as preliminary evidence that the global incidence of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes may be increasing. There are good reasons to believe that the actual increase in Category 4 and 5 hurricanes is far lower than the 80% increase found by Webster et al.
I'm sure there's been a considerable amount of further research on the topic in the 7years since those papers were published. Perhaps the latest findings could be addressed by Dr.Masters in a future blog.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting LargoFl:
any truth to this?..5 natural disasters headed to the united states........Link
You are just full of good news today aren't you? LOL I guess I am in the bullseye for four of the disasters. Hurricane, earthquake at the New Madrid or from the east at the Canary Islands, hurricane and now the shut down of the Gulfstream. Life is a risk at best:)
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Quoting ncstorm:
hmm..did the models see two lows moving off the SE coast?



From the HPC Model Discussion:

SYSTEMS MERGING ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
NOR'EASTER MOVING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST
=========================================
PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS COMPROMISE WITH BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE

SINCE LAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FROM A
SOLUTION WHICH SHOWED ONE LARGE, PHASED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
TO A PATTERN SHOWING GREATER SEPARATION ALOFT/MORE STREAMS OF THE
WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, WHICH HAS CAUSED A SURFACE LOW
TRACK WHICH HAS WAVERED FROM FAIRLY OFFSHORE (THEN INTO MAINE) TO
A MORE COASTAL TRACK BACK TO A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK (INCLUDING
MAINE) OVER THE PAST SIX DAYS. BINARY/FUJIWARA INTERACTION IS
PLAYING A LARGE ROLE WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM
WHICH DROPS
CONFIDENCE TO BELOW AVERAGE AS THIS TYPE OF INTERACTION CAN CREATE
MODERATE TO LARGE RUN-TO-RUN AND DAY-TO-DAY DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE UNTIL THE PROCESS IS UNDERWAY.

THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SIMILAR SPREAD WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE 12Z UKMET SHOWING THE QUICKEST/MOST
EASTERLY SOLUTION WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK FOR THIS CYCLONE. THERE IS NO STABLE FEATURE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM TO HELP DETERMINE ITS LATITUDE IN A TELECONNECTION
SENSE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE NORTHERN STREAM LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE. DEPTH-WISE, ITS TRACK NEAR THE GULF STREAM INTO
WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A FAIRLY LOW PRESSURE, ULTIMATELY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 980S HPA (BUT WELL SHY OF SANDY'S VERY LOW
PRESSURE). A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS (WITH A SOMEWHAT
DEEPER CENTRAL PRESSURE) REMAINS THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET WITH
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
I voted for Romney today. I'll probably get banned for 24 hours for saying that.


Nah, but your ball just hooked into the lake :)
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hmm..did the models see two lows moving off the SE coast?

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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
"A giant flood of Arctic meltwater may have triggered an ancient 1,200-year-long chill nicknamed the "Big Freeze," the last major cold age on Earth, a new study finds."

Link

Thought I'd bring this over from the last blog since it was up for only about 3 minutes.


I blame cars and coal plants and CFCs for that.

CFCs were still legal back then.
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4 minJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

If correct, 18z nam run, which has again shifted west is a disaster. 1-2 million people will have power knocked out by snow, coast raked
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
108. 900MB
Snow in NYC? What next! Uggh....

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
347 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2012

VALID 12Z TUE NOV 06 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 08 2012

...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO
THE I-95 CORRIDOR...

...ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AS AN
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE...


A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
AS A BLOCKING RIDGE ANCHORS THE OPEN ATLANTIC...THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GAIN LATITUDE WITH LITTLE SHIFT TO THE
EAST. THE COASTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP WILL DEFINITELY BE A
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND PRODUCER WHILE CHURNING UP THE SEAS.
HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER MAY BE NUDGED OFFSHORE A BIT FURTHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT WHICH WOULD LESSEN THE IMPACTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE SETTING UP TO THE NORTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE...ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL WEDGE ITSELF ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO
BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS FROM DELAWARE UP TO MAINE. THIS
CURRENTLY INCLUDES SOME MAJOR METROPOLITAN CITIES INCLUDING
PHILADELPHIA...NEW YORK CITY...AND BOSTON WHERE A FEW INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. KEEP IN MIND THAT THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
CHANGING WHICH WOULD ULTIMATELY ALTER THE IMPACTS TO THE
NORTHEAST. FOR THE LATEST THOUGHTS ON MODEL GUIDANCE...PLEASE
VISIT THE HPC MODEL DIAGNOSTICS DISCUSSION ON THE HPC WEBSITE
UNDER THE DISCUSSIONS HEADER.

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Nor'easter 2012 Tracker: Winter Storm Expected To Affect New York, New Jersey, New England (MAP)
The Huffington Post | By Andres Jauregui

They got "news" like this no news, lol:
8:32 PM – Today
Storm Remains Nameless
@ TWC_Shawn : The Weather Channel will NOT be naming the #Noreaster at this time.
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Quoting LargoFl:
"The active margin of North America is its western margin, and only the northwestern segment of it currently has the right conditions to produce volcanoes like Mount St. Helens," Tracy said. "The interior of North America and the East coast lie far from any currently active plate boundaries and therefore are not locales where volcanism can occur."

There is evidence from the rocks in Virginia that volcanoes have been here, but not for about 200 million years, he said. Roughly 750 million years ago, rift-related (divergent) volcanoes erupted along the axis of what later became the Appalachians, and one remnant of that volcanic zone, with its volcanic rocks, still can be seen in Virginia at Mount Rogers.
Your not from the DMV area but if you were up here you would know ancient volcanos and mountains use to exist.Their is even evidence of a ancient waterfall here in D.C.
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Thanks Dr. M. I'm glad they got you on a TED talk, and an excellent job on the prognosticating especially what has happened since the talk.
I'm surprised no earthquakes made your top 10 list. Did you leave them out because of your 30 year horizon gave them a lower probability? Otherwise it seemed like you covered all the bases with a fairly positive spin.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 1590
Mount Rogers in Virginia, used to be..a Volcano..........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40806
"The active margin of North America is its western margin, and only the northwestern segment of it currently has the right conditions to produce volcanoes like Mount St. Helens," Tracy said. "The interior of North America and the East coast lie far from any currently active plate boundaries and therefore are not locales where volcanism can occur."

There is evidence from the rocks in Virginia that volcanoes have been here, but not for about 200 million years, he said. Roughly 750 million years ago, rift-related (divergent) volcanoes erupted along the axis of what later became the Appalachians, and one remnant of that volcanic zone, with its volcanic rocks, still can be seen in Virginia at Mount Rogers.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40806
before i laughed at this but after sandy, i dunno...............Researchers at Georgia Tech and at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., have measured a near doubling in the annual number of Category 4 and 5 storms during the past 35 years. And Kerry Emanuel, professor of meteorology at MIT, has found that Atlantic storms today wield twice the destructive force as those in 1970.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40806
Quoting VAstorms:


There are several theories as to the cause of the younger Dryas including, asteroid hit and volcanoes but the draining of Lake Agazziz, a glacial lake, and a shutdown of the conveyer belt in the Atlantic seems to have the best evidence including a water flow path recently discovered. This has little to do with global warming though it might be a precedent for a conveyer shutdown from Greenland ice melt.


Right, that all gels with my understanding of the Younger Dryas too. I was asking why Barkeep1967 dismissed this latest paper as "people putting information into a simulator and coming up with the results they want."

It struck me as anti-science rhetoric - I'm not sure how anyone could "want" a particular causal mechanism for the Younger Dryas. But I'm wondering if I just misunderstood what Barkeep was trying to say...
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any truth to this?..5 natural disasters headed to the united states........Link
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40806
Quoting Grothar:
so even with a slight shift east..Long Island gets blasted again
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40806
would not want to live any where Near here lol........Mount Saint Helens is not a dormant volcano. For 123 years it was thought to be, however a bulge was noticed in the volcano, and evacuation orders took place. 57 people refused to evacuate, one of whom was 83-year-old Harry R. Truman. On Monday 8:32:17 a.m May 18, 1980, the "bulge" fell off, or slid down the mountain, exposing partly melted and gas enriched rock to lower pressure. It exploded with enough fury to send an 80,000 foot high ash column into the sky, depositing ash into 11 states.

At the same time, snow, ice, and several entire glaciers on the volcano melted, forming a series of large lahars (Volcanic mudslides) that reaches as far as the Columbia River, nearly fifty miles (eighty kilometers) to the south. 200 homes, 27 bridges, 15 miles (24 km) of railways and 185 miles (300 km) of highway were destroyed. Currently it is active.

As I learned in my natural disasters class, after a volcano has finished with it's current "explosion", it starts to rebuild itself by excluding a toothpaste consistency glob of Rhyolite. Mount Saint Helens is active in the way that it is rebuilding itself using the "glob", however it is still an Active Volcano.

If it helps any, a Dormant volcano is thought to be a "sleeping" volcano, and is simply one that currently isn't active but is capable of acting. Extinct volcanoes haven't erupted for tens of thousands of years, and aren't expected to erupt again. Mt. St. Helens is an active volcano.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40806
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Guess Nea only got an hour. He's back posting in the previous blog now tying up loose ends...


funny how his time out was shorter than mine......guess bringing up gas prices is a no no...
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1258 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW DURING THIS
TIME. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH OF BALTIMORE CITY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY FOR THE WATERS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40806
Quoting MrMixon:


Healthy skepticism is what drives scientific progress, but I'm wondering why you dismiss their theory without providing a contrasting theory or even laying out a single flaw with their methodology. Do you have your own theory for the cause of the Younger Dryas?


There are several theories as to the cause of the younger Dryas including, asteroid hit and volcanoes but the draining of Lake Agazziz, a glacial lake, and a shutdown of the conveyer belt in the Atlantic seems to have the best evidence including a water flow path recently discovered. This has little to do with global warming though it might be a precedent for a conveyer shutdown from Greenland ice melt.
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COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1243 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

MDZ024-025-VAZ099-100-062145-
/O.CON.KAKQ.CF.A.0003.121107T1400Z-121108T1400Z/
INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
1243 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* TIMING...THE WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE THROUGH
THE THURSDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WITH THE GREATEST
IMPACT AND WATER LEVEL LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TIDE.

* IMPACTS...WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.5 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE...
AND 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MODERATE FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY IN
ACCOMACK AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...AND ALONG THE BAYS AND
INLETS FROM OCEAN CITY TO THE VIRGINIA EASTERN SHORE...WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF EACH HIGH TIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR LATEST STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY.
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Quoting Barkeep1967:
"A giant flood of Arctic meltwater may have triggered an ancient 1,200-year-long chill nicknamed the "Big Freeze," the last major cold age on Earth, a new study finds."

Link

Thought I'd bring this over from the last blog since it was up for only about 3 minutes.



Just a case of people putting information into a simulator and coming up with the results they want. Interesting but probably a giant fiction story.



Better referred to as the younger Dryas.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40806
Quoting FtMyersgal:


We are supposed to have lows in the low 50's for the next few days. Looking forward to that after a very long hot summer
oh yes, its going to feel great..we wait all year for this huh lol
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Quoting Barkeep1967:
"A giant flood of Arctic meltwater may have triggered an ancient 1,200-year-long chill nicknamed the "Big Freeze," the last major cold age on Earth, a new study finds."

Link

Thought I'd bring this over from the last blog since it was up for only about 3 minutes.



Just a case of people putting information into a simulator and coming up with the results they want. Interesting but probably a giant fiction story.


Healthy skepticism is what drives scientific progress, but I'm wondering why you dismiss their theory without providing a contrasting theory or even laying out a single flaw with their methodology. Do you have your own theory for the cause of the Younger Dryas?
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Quoting aspectre:
71 Progster: ...Phasing is therefore associated with powerful storms.

Peak phase-matching, perhaps, as a better choice of wording? That's a question.
Don't know the nuances of meteorological jargon sufficiently well to make an actual correction.


Phasing is shorthand for constructive interference and peak-phase matching sounds more precise as well.
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"A giant flood of Arctic meltwater may have triggered an ancient 1,200-year-long chill nicknamed the "Big Freeze," the last major cold age on Earth, a new study finds."

Link

Thought I'd bring this over from the last blog since it was up for only about 3 minutes.



Just a case of people putting information into a simulator and coming up with the results they want. Interesting but probably a giant fiction story.
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While you are waiting for the outcome of your votings and the Nor'Easter, this might be a worthwhile piece of reading. Interesting angle of view.

NYT, November 6, 2012, 1:12
Why Climate Disasters Might Not Boost Public Engagement on Climate Change
By ANDREW C. REVKIN

Greetings from Germany. I'm already excited to get the news about who has won the elections when I'll wake up tomorrow.
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Quoting aspectre:
71 Progster: ...Phasing is therefore associated with powerful storms.

Peak phase-matching, perhaps, as a better choice of wording? That's a question.
Don't know the nuances of meteorological jargon sufficiently well to make an actual correction.


Thank you also aspectre for your input as well..
We have quality bloggers here..
Thats why I re-new my membership every year...
Ok..I'll say it..WE Rock !!..
(Almost hurt my self..55yrs young..LOL)
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Thanks Dr. Masters!
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Quoting aspectre:
71 Progster: ...Phasing is therefore associated with powerful storms.

Peak phase-matching, perhaps, as a better choice of wording? That's a question.
Don't know the nuances of meteorological jargon sufficiently well to make an actual correction.

Learned it as constructive interference back in the day...
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71 Progster: ...Phasing is therefore associated with powerful storms.

Peak phase-matching, perhaps, as a better choice of wording? That's a question.
Don't know the nuances of meteorological jargon sufficiently well to make an actual correction.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting Progster:



Phasing: the net amplitude caused by two or more waves traversing the same space is the sum of the amplitudes which would have been produced by the individual waves separately.
In weather, we sometimes have a wave associated with the subtropical jet stream that will line up, from south to north, with a wave associated with the Polar jet stream. This can create a big hemispheric wave and transport a lot of energy from the tropics into the mid latitudes and arctic, and can drive very cold air well to the south, creating strong baroclinicity. Phasing is therefore associated with powerful storms.


Thank you Progster,
Put that way and so well explained even I get it..LOL.
Thanks for your time. :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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