Wednesday's Nor'easter to have lower impact than originally feared

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:11 PM GMT on November 06, 2012

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An early-season Nor'easter is taking shape along the coast of South Carolina today, but is now forecast to be weaker and move farther offshore than originally forecast, resulting in lower impacts to the New Jersey and New York coasts than originally feared. The storm will head north-northeast along the coast on Wednesday, intensifying into a 990 mb Nor'easter, a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY, by Wednesday evening. The storm will likely bring wind gusts up to 50 mph and a storm surge of 2 - 3 feet along the coasts of Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, including New York City. High waves of 10 - 20 feet will ride on top of this surge, and cause moderate beach erosion along much of the coastline damaged by Hurricane Sandy. The greatest flooding will occur during the Wednesday early afternoon high tide cycle, near 1 pm EST. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between the new moon and full moon. The Nor'easter's strongest winds will likely affect eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, where wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible Wednesday evening and Thursday. The storm's heaviest rains will stay offshore, and only Eastern Massachusetts can expect to see more than 1" of rain. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit snowfall amounts to perhaps 1 - 2" along a swath from Northern New Jersey northeastwards, across Western Massachusetts and into Maine. While the storm will slow down recovery efforts from Hurricane Sandy, this is a pretty ordinary Nor'easter of the type the Northeast sees several times per year, and will not cause major damage.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for 1 pm EST Wednesday, November 7, 2012, from the 12Z (7 am EST) run of the GFS model made on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to affect Southern New Jersey, eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts, but miss the areas hardest hit by Sandy--northern New Jersey and the New York City area.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Sandy Hook, NJ for Wednesday's Nor'easter, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.7', occurring Wednesday afternoon. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 pm Wednesday afternoon, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.8' around 1 pm Wednesday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 8.6' storm surge to Sandy Hook before their tide gauge failed, with the storm tide reaching 13.2' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.)

More Sandy links
I gave a TED talk in Bermuda in October 2011, and presented a list of nine potential $100 billion weather disasters that could happen in the next 30 years. Number six on my list was a hurricane hitting New York City. “We really don’t know what climate change is going to do to hurricanes,” I said, “but it makes sense that it’ll probably make the strongest ones stronger.” If you want to see what I had to say about a hurricane hitting New York City, plus the other eight disasters I think have at least a 10% chance of happening in the next 30 years, the 18-minute video is up on the main TED site. (I've since updated my list to twelve potential $100 billion disasters, and plan on running a blog series on the topic in 2013.)

Was Sandy a hurricane at landfall? Lee Grenci, a senior lecturer and forecaster at the Department of Meteorology at Penn State, weighs in on the matter in this guest blog post. He presents evidence that Sandy was not a hurricane at landfall, and was instead a rapidly evolving hybrid storm. Lee , who is a frequent contributor to Weatherwise magazine, will be joining wunderground as a featured blogger in December, and we're looking forward to having his excellent writings!

Be sure to vote today!

Jeff Masters

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18Z GFS at 204 hours:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
With all the moisture going on in the Atlantic right now, I'm almost expecting Valerie to spin up. A few things have m attention, namely the mass in the far southern Caribbean sea (seems 2005's Beta-like), and the one above PR look most interesting. I know that the Nor'Easter is probably not going to allow for the development of anything around it.
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Five days before Sandy made landfall along the New Jersey coastline, NOAA's National Hurricane Center accurately projected the storm's path. This satellite animation shows Sandy's progress from the southwest Atlantic northward into the Northeast U.S. and how it followed the National Hurricane Center's track issued at 11 a.m. EDT on Thursday, October 25 (Advisory #13). This movie's imagery is from GOES East from October 21, 2012 0345Z through October 31, 2012 1315Z
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Quoting allancalderini:
Coming closer looks like Valerie or William will be our finale.

Slowly approaching the development time, Valerie will be the last imo.

Quoting Civicane49:


So far, the GFS has been consistent in developing the potential tropical cyclone in the eastern Atlantic in the next several days.

It has been very consistent with developing one and it is pretty likely we will see one last storm.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
162. goosegirl1
Quoting:-"Here's another wiki article to fret over: Link"
The answer to this is simple.
1, The crack does exist.
2, It doesn't run the full length of the island.

Villages on the shore of the island are still in the same place relevant to the sea level as they have always been, they are not sinking as would be the case if the land was slipping into the sea.
The crack is static but may widen and may open enough for some of the land to slide into the sea.
If the land slides slowly, possibly no major damage or tsunami will occur.
If it slides quickly:- Run as soon as you hear about the event.Follow the links as the whole thing is subject to great controversy.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I hope Admin is lenient tonight as many will be posting election results.


Election results? Why, has there been an election? I can't say I'd noticed...
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If we're trading pet catastrophe scenarios, I've a soft spot for the 1859 Carrington Event. When it happens again, it'll destroy everything electrical on the hemisphere of the planet facing the sun when it hits: the power grid, cars and trucks, aircraft, computers, everything. Like the other disasters, though, it could happen tonight or it might not happen for five centuries -- we don't have a long enough instrumental record to tell.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

Good luck from the UK to everyone in the NE.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Once again, the GFS develops a storm in the E ATL.
165hrs:


So far, the GFS has been consistent in developing the potential tropical cyclone in the eastern Atlantic in the next several days.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting wxchaser97:
Once again, the GFS develops a storm in the E ATL.
165hrs:
Coming closer looks like Valerie or William will be our finale.
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Once again, the GFS develops a storm in the E ATL.
165hrs:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
I hope Admin is lenient tonight as many will be posting election results.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
_____________________________

Fresh graphic...here ya go..!
Nor'easter

notice the pinkish dash-bordered area...that indicates rain/snow changeover at night..possibly. Click on the image for a bigger/better view.
It's a little difficult to see the overlapping.




click on the image for a bigger picture...4x bigger to see all details

have fun!
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
What always concerns me in these terrible storms is the elderly that have no family, or no family that gives a crap. We always hear about an elderly person that has been forgotten and has been found later that had no food, water, or has passed away from the cold... It always happens.
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Quoting LargoFl:
Yes I thought it was a scam site also..but dont like that huge wave coming across from africa after the landslide etc..what a disaster That would be huh..miami..gone


Here's another wiki article to fret over: Link

The page you originally referenced isn't really a scam, it's just generating income for someone by playing on our fears. Anyone who knows me well, knows I live not at all in fear, but in full knowledge that life as we know it now will end- not if, when. Something will get us sooner or later, and it accomplishes nothing to worry over it as you can't change it anyway. Must be my millenialistic upbringing, maybe :)
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Quoting kwgirl:
What I imagine is the piles of debris being taken by the sea or pushed further inland. Anyone with any type of breach in their roof are going to have problems. I hope everyone forgets their material belongings and go to shelter from the wind, rain and cold. Life is too precious to worry about things!
What always concerns me in these terrible storms is the elderly that have no family, or no family that gives a crap. We always hear about an elderly person that has been forgotten and has been found later that had no food, water, or has passed away from the cold... It always happens.
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Quoting ncstorm:
NAM..
Let me finish your sentence..is on crack.
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Quoting LargoFl:
i forget..in a snowstorm..not the inches dropping but the high winds..is that a blizzard?...............................URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
327 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

...LIGHT SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES...

NJZ002-NYZ067-070430-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0007.121107T1100Z-121108T1100Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-
327 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM
EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM
EST THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW COULD
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO UNDER 1 MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* IMPACTS...A COMBINATION OF SNOW...GUSTY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
AROUND FREEZING COULD MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS COMBINATION ALSO
COULD BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

MALOIT

It's technically not a blizzard since there isn't sustained 35mph winds, but with 50mph gusts it will look like a blizzard anyway. Luckily there is only 1-3" expected to fall or it would be worse.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
When the event actually starts to unfold, people will start panicking and freaking out.

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An interesting topic related to rainfall change.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/asr2002/exec-summary.html
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NAM..
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Can you imagine, battering waves/surge wind and near blizzard like conditions to the Jersey shore
What I imagine is the piles of debris being taken by the sea or pushed further inland. Anyone with any type of breach in their roof are going to have problems. I hope everyone forgets their material belongings and go to shelter from the wind, rain and cold. Life is too precious to worry about things!
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well dinnertime..hate this time change lol..see ya all later
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Flags are flying for a significant event

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Quoting RitaEvac:


Can you imagine, battering waves/surge wind and near blizzard like conditions to the Jersey shore
geez with most of the beaches and dunes gone too
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
i forget..in a snowstorm..not the inches dropping but the high winds..is that a blizzard?...............................URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
327 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

...LIGHT SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES...

NJZ002-NYZ067-070430-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0007.121107T1100Z-121108T1100Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-
327 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM
EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM
EST THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW COULD
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO UNDER 1 MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* IMPACTS...A COMBINATION OF SNOW...GUSTY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
AROUND FREEZING COULD MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS COMBINATION ALSO
COULD BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

MALOIT
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Quoting LargoFl:
gee those poor people up there..saw a report yesterday 48,000 people homeless now after sandy


Can you imagine, battering waves/surge wind and near blizzard like conditions to the Jersey shore
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Don't worry you Jersey victoms can come down here to D.C and ride it out.We have heat and electricity.Hotels are also available.We're inviting you down here.
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Quoting kwgirl:
Not such a disaster IF it stopped there! LOL I figured 9 hours to get to Gainesville from Key West, if I left the minute the quake happened. I still don't think those hills are high enough. Maybe I will just wait it out atop the La Concha and witness the tsunami. It will be the only chance, hopefully, I get to see one in person!
LOL..i'll be fast driving to arizona etc LOL
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Quoting RitaEvac:


Looking like a double whammy, more damage on the way

gee those poor people up there..saw a report yesterday 48,000 people homeless now after sandy
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Quoting LargoFl:
Yes I thought it was a scam site also..but dont like that huge wave coming across from africa after the landslide etc..what a disaster That would be huh..miami..gone
Not such a disaster IF it stopped there! LOL I figured 9 hours to get to Gainesville from Key West, if I left the minute the quake happened. I still don't think those hills are high enough. Maybe I will just wait it out atop the La Concha and witness the tsunami. It will be the only chance, hopefully, I get to see one in person!
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NAEFS model spread at 48 hours........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

For only a week after Sandy, this as a 30-hour forecast is stunning (even if completely botched/wrong). Can't prepare. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/265931204866502 656/photo/1
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Quoting LargoFl:
..we need to watch this one closely, im so afraid people up there will let their guard down with the reports the storm has moved east in the track..until its in maine..dont take your eyes off this one


Looking like a double whammy, more damage on the way

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Quoting VaStormGuy:


That's what the NAM says...
..we need to watch this one closely, im so afraid people up there will let their guard down with the reports the storm has moved east in the track..until its in maine..dont take your eyes off this one
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
GFS shows Nor'easter at 24 hours:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
..would like to see how much stronger she is tomorrow morning and what the models say then
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Quoting plutorising:
are you talking about valerie hitting ny as a warm core hurricane?


That's what the NAM says...
Member Since: October 30, 2012 Posts: 1 Comments: 83
2 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

@ryancduff if it has tropical characteristics -- aka looks like a duck, they would issue advisories. In 18-hours, a 970 mb storm, wow.
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Nam at 45 hours, never budged one inch...........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
are you talking about valerie hitting ny as a warm core hurricane?
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Quoting kwgirl:
You are just full of good news today aren't you? LOL I guess I am in the bullseye for four of the disasters. Hurricane, earthquake at the New Madrid or from the east at the Canary Islands, hurricane and now the shut down of the Gulfstream. Life is a risk at best:)
kw......That would put your eye out kid...... I knew a survivorist(maybe wrong word) years ago.Most paranoid person I ever knew... He was convinced every day was his last day.But. He had so many guns in his house the day he passed away the FBI were called to make sure it was safe to go into his house....Not a way to live life. I try my best to enjoy myself in my mere few years... I'll drink to that.
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COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
413 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY OUT 20 NM OFFSHORE
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND...LONG ISLAND BAYS AND NEW YORK HARBOR

ANZ345-070930-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
413 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...INCREASING
TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. WAVES 2 TO 3 FT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN LATE. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM LATE.
.WED...NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT...BECOMING N 30 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 55 KT. WAVES AROUND 3 FT. RAIN. VSBY 1 TO
3 NM.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 KT. WAVES
AROUND 3 FT. RAIN. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.THU...N WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT...DIMINISHING TO
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WAVES 3 TO
5 FT. SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. WAVES 2 TO 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WAVES AROUND 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. WAVES
AROUND 2 FT IN THE EVENING...THEN 1 FT OR LESS.
.SAT...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING E. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS.
.SUN...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Gulf Stream SSTs are warm still w/colder tropopause aloft. Tropical convection can fire. Mesoscale guidance shows Hurricane Valerie.
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Quoting VaStormGuy:
18Z WRF:



Are the models trying to make this tropical with a warm-core seclusion?
oh boy..not another Sandy like storm
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
...bullseye again

http://weather.unisys.com/nam/nam.php?plot=pres&i nv=0&t=l
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18Z WRF:



Are the models trying to make this tropical with a warm-core seclusion?
Member Since: October 30, 2012 Posts: 1 Comments: 83
Quoting kwgirl:
You are just full of good news today aren't you? LOL I guess I am in the bullseye for four of the disasters. Hurricane, earthquake at the New Madrid or from the east at the Canary Islands, hurricane and now the shut down of the Gulfstream. Life is a risk at best:)
yeah Im in danger also lol..but..when they talk about climate change..NOT global warming..could be one of these disasters Could happen with the changing weather..i do remember something a few years ago..about the gulf stream moving further north in the atlantic.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Whoa... 18Z NAM...

Member Since: October 30, 2012 Posts: 1 Comments: 83
Quoting aspectre:
100 LargoFl: Before, I laughed at this, but after Sandy, I dunno...............
"Researchers at Georgia Tech and at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., have measured a near doubling in the annual number of Category 4 and 5 storms during the past 35 years. And Kerry Emanuel, professor of meteorology at MIT, has found that Atlantic storms today wield twice the destructive force as those in 1970.
"

That's from August(Emanuel) and September(GeorgiaTech&NCAR) of 2005,
about which Dr. Jeff Masters blogged on 27March2006:
However, there is a large amount of uncertainty in the hurricane intensity data used by both papers, and their findings should be considered as preliminary evidence that the global incidence of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes may be increasing. There are good reasons to believe that the actual increase in Category 4 and 5 hurricanes is far lower than the 80% increase found by Webster et al.
I'm sure there's been a considerable amount of further research on the topic in the 7years since those papers were published. Perhaps the latest findings could be addressed by Dr.Masters in a future blog.
That would be great if the Doc did that..somehow a simple cat-1..barely..could grow into such a HUGE monster, even in the cooler waters is a mystery to me.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
NAM is showing 45 knots on the surface on the south Jersey shore and 70 knots at about 1000' altitude.

Most likely winds on the surface will gust to hurricane force winds.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/model s/processing/NAM_218_2012110618_F21_38.0000N_73.50 00W.png
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Quoting goosegirl1:




There is truth, in that any of these disasters *could* happen- but that web site is actually there to sell disaster bug-out kits and emergency supplies, not supply scientific information. The likelihood of any of these disasters is real, but very small. All life is a risk, just like this:Link
Yes I thought it was a scam site also..but dont like that huge wave coming across from africa after the landslide etc..what a disaster That would be huh..miami..gone
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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