Wednesday's Nor'easter to have lower impact than originally feared

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:11 PM GMT on November 06, 2012

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An early-season Nor'easter is taking shape along the coast of South Carolina today, but is now forecast to be weaker and move farther offshore than originally forecast, resulting in lower impacts to the New Jersey and New York coasts than originally feared. The storm will head north-northeast along the coast on Wednesday, intensifying into a 990 mb Nor'easter, a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY, by Wednesday evening. The storm will likely bring wind gusts up to 50 mph and a storm surge of 2 - 3 feet along the coasts of Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, including New York City. High waves of 10 - 20 feet will ride on top of this surge, and cause moderate beach erosion along much of the coastline damaged by Hurricane Sandy. The greatest flooding will occur during the Wednesday early afternoon high tide cycle, near 1 pm EST. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between the new moon and full moon. The Nor'easter's strongest winds will likely affect eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, where wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible Wednesday evening and Thursday. The storm's heaviest rains will stay offshore, and only Eastern Massachusetts can expect to see more than 1" of rain. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit snowfall amounts to perhaps 1 - 2" along a swath from Northern New Jersey northeastwards, across Western Massachusetts and into Maine. While the storm will slow down recovery efforts from Hurricane Sandy, this is a pretty ordinary Nor'easter of the type the Northeast sees several times per year, and will not cause major damage.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for 1 pm EST Wednesday, November 7, 2012, from the 12Z (7 am EST) run of the GFS model made on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to affect Southern New Jersey, eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts, but miss the areas hardest hit by Sandy--northern New Jersey and the New York City area.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Sandy Hook, NJ for Wednesday's Nor'easter, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.7', occurring Wednesday afternoon. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 pm Wednesday afternoon, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.8' around 1 pm Wednesday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 8.6' storm surge to Sandy Hook before their tide gauge failed, with the storm tide reaching 13.2' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.)

More Sandy links
I gave a TED talk in Bermuda in October 2011, and presented a list of nine potential $100 billion weather disasters that could happen in the next 30 years. Number six on my list was a hurricane hitting New York City. “We really don’t know what climate change is going to do to hurricanes,” I said, “but it makes sense that it’ll probably make the strongest ones stronger.” If you want to see what I had to say about a hurricane hitting New York City, plus the other eight disasters I think have at least a 10% chance of happening in the next 30 years, the 18-minute video is up on the main TED site. (I've since updated my list to twelve potential $100 billion disasters, and plan on running a blog series on the topic in 2013.)

Was Sandy a hurricane at landfall? Lee Grenci, a senior lecturer and forecaster at the Department of Meteorology at Penn State, weighs in on the matter in this guest blog post. He presents evidence that Sandy was not a hurricane at landfall, and was instead a rapidly evolving hybrid storm. Lee , who is a frequent contributor to Weatherwise magazine, will be joining wunderground as a featured blogger in December, and we're looking forward to having his excellent writings!

Be sure to vote today!

Jeff Masters

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Who's running again?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27067
And so it begins with the political discussion...
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7971
Quoting VAstorms:


I have a hard time assuming what others are saying. Not sure what the point was in the first place.


Well, I know we're better off if we avoid assuming anything about what people are saying... but I find it's really hard sometimes not to make an assumption out of myself. Regardless, I suspect Barkeep won't be returning to explain him/herself so this one may be a mystery for the ages...
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Well, two states in the books already (Kentucky & Vermont).

Mittney leads 8-3. And leads popular vote 183k - 103k.


So, how about this wonderful weather?
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Romney get Indiana and Kentucky and Obama get Vermont according to NBC News.
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While I do not like either candidates, I believe Romney would preform better than Obama. If Romney does not win Ohio or Virginia, however, he will probably not become president.
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Quoting pcola57:


Well,
Now that admin. has opened the floodgates,I'm gonna sit back and watch this.. :)


I certainly plan to check in from time to time. Nothing like a horse race to bring out the drama -and the adrenaline.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167


From Dr. Ricky Rood's blog today
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Quoting WunderBlogAdmin:
As an Election Day present and in recognition of the fact that no one can talk about anything else today the Admins will allow discussion of election results this evening.

Please keep it civil and don't let the discussion descend into personal attacks.


Well,
Now that admin. has opened the floodgates,I'm gonna sit back and watch this..
Could get interesting.. :)
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Quoting Bradenton:


This looks like a good opportunity to do some weeding with the handy dandy ignore button.

Guess who's first?


That wasnt an attack,or anything, i just revealed who i was supporting.
Way to overuse that ignore button, not sure why you used it. Well you also cant read this, lol.
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Starting around 6 P.M. EST or so, the main page and Senate pages will switch to blank maps that will be updated throughout the evening as election results come in. But be aware that very early reports can be confusing. If Austin happens to report first, Texas might be dark blue for a little while. If problems in New York City due to the storm delay reporting until after upstate districts report, New York might be dark red for a while. But it will be interesting to see the colors spread out from east to west as the results come in. Come back tonight.





thanks admin no comments or opinions from me just simple results


thanks again admin
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55503
I would like to advise against making an appearance in chat. For your possible safety.
It's become quite disturbing what goes on in there, with a hacker showing up.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


ROMNEY/RYAN!


This looks like a good opportunity to do some weeding with the handy dandy ignore button.

Guess who's first?
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Quoting MrMixon:


Right, that all gels with my understanding of the Younger Dryas too. I was asking why Barkeep1967 dismissed this latest paper as "people putting information into a simulator and coming up with the results they want."

It struck me as anti-science rhetoric - I'm not sure how anyone could "want" a particular causal mechanism for the Younger Dryas. But I'm wondering if I just misunderstood what Barkeep was trying to say...


I have a hard time assuming what others are saying. Not sure what the point was in the first place.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


ROMNEY/RYAN!


You make a convincing argument...

:P

PS - There's still time to vote, people! Quit reading this blog and go vote (if you haven't already).
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Quoting WunderBlogAdmin:
As an Election Day present and in recognition of the fact that no one can talk about anything else today the Admins will allow discussion of election results this evening.

Please keep it civil and don't let the discussion descend into personal attacks.


ROMNEY/RYAN!
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i'll be back later to see how bad it got with the political discussions.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
Quoting WunderBlogAdmin:
As an Election Day present and in recognition of the fact that no one can talk about anything else today the Admins will allow discussion of election results this evening.

Please keep it civil and don't let the discussion descend into personal attacks.


Well then:


(for the Futurama fans in the blog...)
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Jeff Masters has written about the possible catastrophe caused by a solar flare:

We have the very real possibility that a geomagnetic storms of an intensity that has happened before--and will happen again--could knock out the power to tens of millions of Americans for multiple years. The electrical grids in Europe and northern Asia have similar vulnerabilities, so a huge, years-long global emergency affecting hundreds of millions of people and costing many trillions of dollars might result from a repeat of the 1859 or 1921 geomagnetic storms.


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comm ent.html?entrynum=1206
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27067
204. WunderBlogAdmin (Admin)
As an Election Day present and in recognition of the fact that no one can talk about anything else today the Admins will allow discussion of election results this evening.

Please keep it civil and don't let the discussion descend into personal attacks.
Quoting sar2401:

To my knowledge, there isn't one credible contigency plan, outside the military, that has been developed to address this issue.


A UK Parliamentary Committee did a report on various risks to national security (broadly defined) that at least considered it: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/ cmselect/cmdfence/1925/192504.htm
Their recommendation was (words to the effect of) "further research is indicated"...

I guess space weather's off-topic for WU, though :>
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Miami NWS Disco

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE QUICKLY
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WHILE DEEPENING. A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND DEEPEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER
AIR TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND NEAR NAPLES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST LIKELY IT WILL BE A
STRATUS DECK. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE
LOWER 70S...AND SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND THE LOW TO MID
50S ELSEWHERE...OR ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.



I guess the snuggies come out this week.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27067
Sorry to be off-topic but I thought this was interesting.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27067
Miami NWS Disco

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE QUICKLY
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WHILE DEEPENING. A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND DEEPEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER
AIR TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND NEAR NAPLES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...BUT MOST LIKELY IT WILL BE A
STRATUS DECK. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE
LOWER 70S...AND SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND THE LOW TO MID
50S ELSEWHERE...OR ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11512
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27067
198. MTWX
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


sorry..it's hard calculating such places but I knew I was off


Quite fine! At least you try! Most think people still ride around in covered wagons and have no electricity up there any way ;)
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
Quoting MTWX:


Nice representation! (even though Helena is about 200 miles north of where you put it ;))



sorry..it's hard calculating such places but I knew I was off
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196. MTWX
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
_____________________________

Major Montana snowstorm
CA. Sierra Nevada snow showers



click on the image for a bigger picture...4x bigger to see all details

I'll be working on the Nor'easter in the next hour...it's a hard thing but worth doing for all of you guys.


Nice representation! (even though Helena is about 200 miles north of where you put it ;))

Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Soo sad... its now 5:44 PM and it's completely dark outside...since 30 mins ago
Can't do anything fun anymore.

well here I am


Oh sunset here is at 4:30 and I love it! in summer it's at like 10pm and I hate it LOL

Had the first snows on the mtns of Snowdonia over the weekend. Headed up north for my daughters birthday to see the Blackpool illuminations and could see it in the Lake District to the north of there. so headed up there too. Too high up still, but sure looks purdy!

About the Atlantic tsunami scenario...I reckon really, most coastlines are at some risk as most coastlines will be open to something from a fault far at sea. Hard to live much of anywhere without some risk.

Someone on my FB sent something through about some projected solar storms for Jan that are supposed to be real bad...so imipak might see it LOL I hope not, but never know what that Sun will do
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Quoting imipak:
If we're trading pet catastrophe scenarios, I've a soft spot for the 1859 Carrington Event. When it happens again, it'll destroy everything electrical on the hemisphere of the planet facing the sun when it hits: the power grid, cars and trucks, aircraft, computers, everything. Like the other disasters, though, it could happen tonight or it might not happen for five centuries -- we don't have a long enough instrumental record to tell.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

Good luck from the UK to everyone in the NE.

It won't destroy everything electrical, but it will damage or destroy anything that's solid state or depends on wires, which will act as antennas. Virtually everything, from the cars we drive to ATM's to GPS systems are totally reliant on solid state control systems. Even many of the older transformers, which are pretty much immune to electromagnetic pulse (EMP) damage are now being switched to digital control, and they won't function after a big EMP hit. One of the reasons why many amatuer radio stations still contain a few older vacuum tube receivers and transmitters is that they will still work after an EMP hit. The military and some commercial airlines have hardened systems against EMP, but a repeat of the Carrington event would, without a doubt, be the biggest economic and societial catastrophe ever to hit the modern world. If you think it's tough explaining things like storm surge to the average person, try talking about EMP damage. Their eyes glaze over in about 10 seconds. :) Yet, it's not a matter of if, but when. To my knowledge, there isn't one credible contigency plan, outside the military, that has been developed to address this issue.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


I got a one hour ban today for saying that I voted and who I voted for.


Sorry to hear that. Same thing happened to me last week. But the people elected on the Federal level will have a say as to funding of the NHC, NASA, FEMA and many things related to weather.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11512
Quoting wxchaser97:

Slowly approaching the development time, Valerie will be the last imo.


It has been very consistent with developing one and it is pretty likely we will see one last storm.
I hope its William would be cool to exhaust this list that is consider the least active of all.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Unelss the nor'easter becomes a tropical cyclone. =P
I really doubt it but who knows.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
TWC.com Athena or not? Which storm Montana snowstorm or Nor'easter?


The latest computer models continue to show a significant coastal storm with strong winds, rain, and high surf affecting coastal sections. Some additional power outages and flooding of low-lying coastal sections from the Delmarva to New England – including those now exposed because of Sandy’s damage – is still expected, with the peak storm effects late tomorrow.

Accumulating snow is expected at higher elevations from Pennsylvania to Maine, with peak depths in the 3 to 6 inch range.

In between the coast and the high terrain, rain and snow, briefly switching to all snow, is expected. Since it’s still early November, the streets and highways are still fairly warm, so significant accumulation and travel problems in the big cities are not expected, however.

There is the possibility that cold air might penetrate farther into the storm than is current forecast, so some of the expected rain/snow area becomes all snow – which would be heavy and wet. We will be ready to name the storm to raise awareness if that is imminent or is happening and will update everyone if that takes place.

There is another system we are monitoring coming to the northern Rockies. If that system has a significant impact on the U.S., as opposed to being mostly in Canada, we will name that. There’s no question about the amount of snow and wind with that one, just where it will affect. Stay tuned
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Quoting goosegirl1:



Well, I'll be OK at 200 miles inland and 1700 feet elevation. I won't really have to run, but I may have to make room on my little mountain ridge for the rest of you :)

Welcome to the dont get flooded club.
I'm 2000 feet up and 60 miles inland in a village that's been here for 2000 years, so things look safe here as well. We have plenty of empty houses and some still have their roofs, most of the village population moved to the coast a while ago looking for their fortunes, bit like reverse lemmings if the mountain should divide in two.

Is there a projected path for that North Atlantic storm yet or is it still at pressure map stages?
Some good info on here tonight considering the distractions elsewhere.
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Quoting goosegirl1:




There is truth, in that any of these disasters *could* happen- but that web site is actually there to sell disaster bug-out kits and emergency supplies, not supply scientific information. The likelihood of any of these disasters is real, but very small. All life is a risk, just like this:Link


Yeah, it's a bit like Coast to Coast 'earth change' scenarios.

Though admittedly, when I bought the house I was living in in Washington, i did check the flood plain maps, geological maps (for earthquake shaking intensity) and pyroclastic flow maps, and bought a house that was on a hill of solid rock in Tacoma LOL reckoned better safe than sorry. Was tempting as out by Puyallup had much nicer houses on big land for much less price...but couldn't do it :P
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Soo sad... its now 5:44 PM and it's completely dark outside...since 30 mins ago
Can't do anything fun anymore.

well here I am
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Quoting pcola57:


Thanks Max and well done!!
Once I hit enlarge the pinkish dash-boarderline showed quite nicely..
Turned out very well!!


thanks for your feedback Pcola57 :)
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Quoting AussieStorm:
What do you call a bear with no teeth? A gummy bear.


Drinking tonight Aussie?
Just kidding..LOL.. :)
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Quoting ncstorm:
NAM..


DAM!
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
What do you call a bear with no teeth? A gummy bear.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
_____________________________

Fresh graphic...here ya go..!
Nor'easter

notice the pinkish dash-bordered area...that indicates rain/snow changeover at night..possibly. Click on the image for a bigger/better view.
It's a little difficult to see the overlapping.




click on the image for a bigger picture...4x bigger to see all details

have fun!


Thanks Max and well done!!
Once I hit enlarge the pinkish dash-boarderline showed quite nicely..
Turned out very well!!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Unelss the nor'easter becomes a tropical cyclone. =P


Considering how fast it's forecast to spin up, and the moisture and above-average SSTs all over the place, I wouldn't be shocked. Hasn't the CMC hinted at the plausibility already?
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Quoting LostTomorrows:
With all the moisture going on in the Atlantic right now, I'm almost expecting Valerie to spin up. A few things have m attention, namely the mass in the far southern Caribbean sea (seems 2005's Beta-like), and the one above PR look most interesting. I know that the Nor'Easter is probably not going to allow for the development of anything around it.

Unelss the nor'easter becomes a tropical cyclone. =P
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GFS forecasts it to dissipate in the middle Atlantic by 216 hours.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting PlazaRed:
162. goosegirl1
Quoting:-"Here's another wiki article to fret over: Link"
The answer to this is simple.
1, The crack does exist.
2, It doesn't run the full length of the island.

Villages on the shore of the island are still in the same place relevant to the sea level as they have always been, they are not sinking as would be the case if the land was slipping into the sea.
The crack is static but may widen and may open enough for some of the land to slide into the sea.
If the land slides slowly, possibly no major damage or tsunami will occur.
If it slides quickly:- Run as soon as you hear about the event.Follow the links as the whole thing is subject to great controversy.



Well, I'll be OK at 200 miles inland and 1700 feet elevation. I won't really have to run, but I may have to make room on my little mountain ridge for the rest of you :)
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18Z GFS at 204 hours:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.