Wednesday's Nor'easter to have lower impact than originally feared

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:11 PM GMT on November 06, 2012

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An early-season Nor'easter is taking shape along the coast of South Carolina today, but is now forecast to be weaker and move farther offshore than originally forecast, resulting in lower impacts to the New Jersey and New York coasts than originally feared. The storm will head north-northeast along the coast on Wednesday, intensifying into a 990 mb Nor'easter, a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY, by Wednesday evening. The storm will likely bring wind gusts up to 50 mph and a storm surge of 2 - 3 feet along the coasts of Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, including New York City. High waves of 10 - 20 feet will ride on top of this surge, and cause moderate beach erosion along much of the coastline damaged by Hurricane Sandy. The greatest flooding will occur during the Wednesday early afternoon high tide cycle, near 1 pm EST. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between the new moon and full moon. The Nor'easter's strongest winds will likely affect eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, where wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible Wednesday evening and Thursday. The storm's heaviest rains will stay offshore, and only Eastern Massachusetts can expect to see more than 1" of rain. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit snowfall amounts to perhaps 1 - 2" along a swath from Northern New Jersey northeastwards, across Western Massachusetts and into Maine. While the storm will slow down recovery efforts from Hurricane Sandy, this is a pretty ordinary Nor'easter of the type the Northeast sees several times per year, and will not cause major damage.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for 1 pm EST Wednesday, November 7, 2012, from the 12Z (7 am EST) run of the GFS model made on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to affect Southern New Jersey, eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts, but miss the areas hardest hit by Sandy--northern New Jersey and the New York City area.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Sandy Hook, NJ for Wednesday's Nor'easter, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.7', occurring Wednesday afternoon. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 pm Wednesday afternoon, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.8' around 1 pm Wednesday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 8.6' storm surge to Sandy Hook before their tide gauge failed, with the storm tide reaching 13.2' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.)

More Sandy links
I gave a TED talk in Bermuda in October 2011, and presented a list of nine potential $100 billion weather disasters that could happen in the next 30 years. Number six on my list was a hurricane hitting New York City. “We really don’t know what climate change is going to do to hurricanes,” I said, “but it makes sense that it’ll probably make the strongest ones stronger.” If you want to see what I had to say about a hurricane hitting New York City, plus the other eight disasters I think have at least a 10% chance of happening in the next 30 years, the 18-minute video is up on the main TED site. (I've since updated my list to twelve potential $100 billion disasters, and plan on running a blog series on the topic in 2013.)

Was Sandy a hurricane at landfall? Lee Grenci, a senior lecturer and forecaster at the Department of Meteorology at Penn State, weighs in on the matter in this guest blog post. He presents evidence that Sandy was not a hurricane at landfall, and was instead a rapidly evolving hybrid storm. Lee , who is a frequent contributor to Weatherwise magazine, will be joining wunderground as a featured blogger in December, and we're looking forward to having his excellent writings!

Be sure to vote today!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Astrometeor:


based off of data from exit polls and other polls that show romney is safe in SC, unless something interesting happens



I see now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114717
KOTG- What are you posting? I don't understand what that means?

I also thought you were in Canada?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



how can NBC make Romney the winner when it shows that Obama has 75% of the vote


based off of data from exit polls and other polls that show romney is safe in SC, unless something interesting happens
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 95 Comments: 9805
Obama
3
48%/ 1,734,090
Romney
24
51%/ 1,866,117
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This race is going to come down to a few thousand votes. Florida is flip-floppity, Virginia seems to be leaning Romney, less than 5% of the vote is in for both states.


Florida is the state you can wear flip-flops in so that makes sense...
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Quoting SunriseSteeda:


Interesting, I wonder how they can report victories in those two states when votes are not all tallied.


I wasn't doubting you SunriseSteeda,
And I had bad info..I apoligise..



Note to self: I promised to stay out of this and I will..
No more postings!!!!
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Romney wins South Carolina.


no affilation to NC..

President Obama! Four More Years!
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Quoting Tazmanian:



how can NBC make Romney the winner when it shows that Obama has 75% of the vote

It is only like 4% of the vote. Exit polls and other things show Romney winning SC.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Minorities,Women,homosexuals are screwed if Romney wins!!
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


where are you getting your info from?
and indiana is a republican state, so i wouldnt put too much faith in that county always holding true to the election with moving around.

i only see 0.3% of the florida vote in, so where is your info coming from?


Shoot, my wife is still inline waiting to vote. (I voted this morning -- but it still took HOURS to do it)

No way Florida will be in anytime soon. Some heavy populated counties still have voters IN LINE.
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This race is going to come down to a few thousand votes. Florida is flip-floppity, Virginia seems to be leaning Romney, less than 5% of the vote is in for both states.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


North Carolina is to close to call.



how can NBC make Romney the winner when it shows that Obama has 75% of the vote
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114717
Here you can see the shift from 2008 to now and the current results:
Presidential Election Map
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Obama
3
48%/ 1,598,749
Romney
24
51%/ 1,702,517
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Tazmanian:



how you no that it show obama a head in SC do you mean NC?


North Carolina is to close to call.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10972
I don't care who wins, I just hope whoever wins does their damn job and not be a spineless slug
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south carolina to romney.

33-3

still nothing real yet.
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Private jets were streaming into Boston’s Logan International Airport Tuesday afternoon, officials said, as Mitt Romney’s well-heeled supporters arrived for his post-election party in the Seaport District.

Edward Freni, director of aviation for Logan, said an unusually large number of Gulfstream corporate jets were looking to park at the airport by late afternoon on election day. Logan had accommodated 80 of them by 4:30 p.m., roughly double the 40 to 50 it sees on a typical day, he said.

via Boston.com
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Romney wins South Carolina.



how you no that it show obama a head in SC do you mean NC?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114717
Virginia leaning red, but very very early.
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I hope Romney wins.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Romney wins South Carolina.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10972
Quoting allancalderini:
My mom is hoping Romney to win while I am hoping Obama to win.


I would much rather Obama win.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19911
212 Bradenton: This looks like a good opportunity to do some weeding with the handy dandy ignore button. Guess who's first?

ME! ME! ME! Pick me! Pick me!

Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
My mom is hoping Romney to win while I am hoping Obama to win.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4004
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


where are you getting your info from?
and indiana is a republican state, so i wouldnt put too much faith in that county always holding true to the election with moving around.

i only see 0.3% of the florida vote in, so where is your info coming from?

CNN.
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romney 24 obama 3....but we havent seen anything real yet.
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Quoting SunriseSteeda:


Interesting, I wonder how they can report victories in those two states when votes are not all tallied.

The media "declares" based on statistical information. Sometimes they have been wrong. You might recall Florida and the Hanging Chads where the "declareds" went back and forth so fast they became dizzy and collapsed.
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 615
How long before we get the obligatory "I was over browsing the 'Romney Wins' blog and they have a great update on the nor'easter..." post? Oops.
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Romney wins West Virginia.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10972
Quoting pcola57:


I see (popular vote counted)only 5% reported so far in Kentucky and less than 1% in Vermont..
Electorial votes are 8 in Kentucky(Romney) and 3 Vermont(Obama)


Note to self: I promised to stay out of this and I will..
No more postings!!!!


Interesting, I wonder how they can report victories in those two states when votes are not all tallied.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Obama
3
47%/ 1,047,837
Romney
19
52%/ 1,157,940
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
5% of the vote is in in the state of Florida. 50% Obama, 50% Romney.

There is a small county in Indiana that typically decides the election...whatever color it becomes is who becomes the president.

The county was blue but has now turned red...maybe a sign?


where are you getting your info from?
and indiana is a republican state, so i wouldnt put too much faith in that county always holding true to the election with moving around.

i only see 0.3% of the florida vote in, so where is your info coming from?
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204 WunderBlogAdmin: ...the Admins will allow discussion of election results this evening...
The 1st Sign of the Apocalypse.

...Please keep it civil and don't let the discussion descend into personal attacks.

Oh, sure... take all the fun outta it
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Kennedy v. Nixon.


I'll get Kennedy's father right on it!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10972
Quoting Grothar:


Who's running again?



Who was the consumer advocate guy who ran a while ago?! Nader was it?! I thought he'd be ACE!!! Totally FOR the peoples' best interest. And why he'd never get enough support...most big business surely against him!!
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Quoting Grothar:


Who's running again?


As Obama reminded us at the Al Smith Dinner, Paul Ryan is running, and we've only been running for 2hrs and 50something minutes
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Quoting Grothar:


Who's running again?


Did you vote for Roseanne?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10972
Google Politics & Elections
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Kennedy v. Nixon, it's pretty close so far.
LOL, good one!
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Quoting WunderBlogAdmin:
As an Election Day present and in recognition of the fact that no one can talk about anything else today the Admins will allow discussion of election results this evening.

Please keep it civil and don't let the discussion descend into personal attacks.


Hmmm, so says Vader!! yeah, you're to be trusted!!! haha

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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
I'm running...

How far are you running and how fast?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
5% of the vote is in in the state of Florida. 50% Obama, 50% Romney.

There is a small county in Indiana that typically decides the election...whatever color it becomes is who becomes the president.

The county was blue but has now turned red...maybe a sign?
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Quoting Grothar:


Who's running again?


Kennedy v. Nixon.
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Quoting Grothar:


Who's running again?


I think they have stopped.
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 615
I'm running...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
While I do not like either candidates, I believe Romney would preform better than Obama. If Romney does not win Ohio or Virginia, however, he will probably not become president.


I agree...actually if he wins Virginia and loses Ohio I think he still loses.
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Quoting SunriseSteeda:
Well, two states in the books already (Kentucky & Vermont).

Mittney leads 8-3. And leads popular vote 183k - 103k.


So, how about this wonderful weather?


I see (popular vote counted)only 5% reported so far in Kentucky and less than 1% in Vermont..
Electorial votes are 8 in Kentucky(Romney) and 3 Vermont(Obama)


Note to self: I promised to stay out of this and I will..
No more postings!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
bummer, i guess this isn't a place to visit to avoid the undue stress of 24hr news mentality election sport updates. with a post like that from admin, i wonder if they can switch the 'ignore' button to a 'view only' button for the night, and i'll just keep Grothar on it ;)
edit: and my vote was cast by 8am, i'd just rather wait till tomorrow to find out.. or whenever the law suits end
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


From Dr. Ricky Rood's blog today



eehh, I still say the superstorm was more luck, since it could have happened at any time, all the old mets said they had talked about it happening for a long time, but the timing just never lined up.
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Who's running again?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25352

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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