Wednesday's Nor'easter to have lower impact than originally feared

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:11 PM GMT on November 06, 2012

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An early-season Nor'easter is taking shape along the coast of South Carolina today, but is now forecast to be weaker and move farther offshore than originally forecast, resulting in lower impacts to the New Jersey and New York coasts than originally feared. The storm will head north-northeast along the coast on Wednesday, intensifying into a 990 mb Nor'easter, a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY, by Wednesday evening. The storm will likely bring wind gusts up to 50 mph and a storm surge of 2 - 3 feet along the coasts of Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, including New York City. High waves of 10 - 20 feet will ride on top of this surge, and cause moderate beach erosion along much of the coastline damaged by Hurricane Sandy. The greatest flooding will occur during the Wednesday early afternoon high tide cycle, near 1 pm EST. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between the new moon and full moon. The Nor'easter's strongest winds will likely affect eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, where wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible Wednesday evening and Thursday. The storm's heaviest rains will stay offshore, and only Eastern Massachusetts can expect to see more than 1" of rain. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit snowfall amounts to perhaps 1 - 2" along a swath from Northern New Jersey northeastwards, across Western Massachusetts and into Maine. While the storm will slow down recovery efforts from Hurricane Sandy, this is a pretty ordinary Nor'easter of the type the Northeast sees several times per year, and will not cause major damage.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for 1 pm EST Wednesday, November 7, 2012, from the 12Z (7 am EST) run of the GFS model made on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to affect Southern New Jersey, eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts, but miss the areas hardest hit by Sandy--northern New Jersey and the New York City area.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Sandy Hook, NJ for Wednesday's Nor'easter, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.7', occurring Wednesday afternoon. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 pm Wednesday afternoon, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.8' around 1 pm Wednesday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 8.6' storm surge to Sandy Hook before their tide gauge failed, with the storm tide reaching 13.2' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.)

More Sandy links
I gave a TED talk in Bermuda in October 2011, and presented a list of nine potential $100 billion weather disasters that could happen in the next 30 years. Number six on my list was a hurricane hitting New York City. “We really don’t know what climate change is going to do to hurricanes,” I said, “but it makes sense that it’ll probably make the strongest ones stronger.” If you want to see what I had to say about a hurricane hitting New York City, plus the other eight disasters I think have at least a 10% chance of happening in the next 30 years, the 18-minute video is up on the main TED site. (I've since updated my list to twelve potential $100 billion disasters, and plan on running a blog series on the topic in 2013.)

Was Sandy a hurricane at landfall? Lee Grenci, a senior lecturer and forecaster at the Department of Meteorology at Penn State, weighs in on the matter in this guest blog post. He presents evidence that Sandy was not a hurricane at landfall, and was instead a rapidly evolving hybrid storm. Lee , who is a frequent contributor to Weatherwise magazine, will be joining wunderground as a featured blogger in December, and we're looking forward to having his excellent writings!

Be sure to vote today!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


that was expected.
I'm sure it was. But it means something that the people who know him best have rejected him in the majority. As with so much else tonight, I guess we'll see...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13470
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nothing unexpected. Romney's home or not, Maine has always been strongly democrat.



Maine?
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Quoting ncstorm:


I wasnt starting anything..CNN has been showing Obama leading..I just assume he was watching another channel..


its mixing it up still.
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Jeff Masters for President
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Romney
82
51%/ 4,052,444

Obama
64
48%/ 3,755,476


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Neapolitan:
Wow, Obama is projected to take Massachusetts--the state for which Romney was governor, and where he has lived for 40 years.

That's gonna leave a mark...

Nothing unexpected. Romney's home or not, Massachusetts has always been strongly democrat.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Wow, Obama is projected to take Massachusetts--the state for which Romney was governor, and where he has lived for 40 years.

That's gonna leave a mark...


that was expected.
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NBC says Romney took MS AL TN
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114772
Wow, Obama is projected to take Massachusetts--the state for which Romney was governor, and where he has lived for 40 years.

That's gonna leave a mark...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13470
CRS - I will be passed out drunk in about 5 minutes if I use those rules.

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Romney
82
51%/ 3,665,418

Obama
64
48%/ 3,513,758



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
NBC says Romney now up too 82
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114772
Obama 64-40 Romney as of right now.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Virginia leaning red, but very very early.
I'm pretty sure each state is purple, from fuchsia to deep periwinkle and all shades in between. Each a blend of red, white and blue.
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Miami-Dade has at least posted the early and absentee ballot results collected so far. (You could drop off an absentee ballot as late as 7pm tonight-so more may be counted as the night rolls on)

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... a game for people intending to imbibe during the election, ...here are some suggestions:

— When the Large Electronic Map doesn’t do what the person using the Large Electronic Map wanted it to do.

— When there’s a hologram.

— When someone “calls” a state, maybe.

— When you are pretty sure there’s a hologram and everyone around you is trying to take your beverage away.

— Whenever you are surprised by the number of decimal places in a random statistic.

— Whenever there’s a pause in the coverage and you can see the anchor wondering what life is going to be like without these people to comment on.

— Whenever the anchors on a theoretically balanced network appear dejected or elated.

from ComPost @ Washington Post

: )
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


lets try our best not to start anything tonight.


I wasnt starting anything..CNN has been showing Obama leading..I just assume he was watching another channel..
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82 Romney...64 Obama
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11005
Will a Third party compete with the big 2. Maybe oneday.
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CNN PROJECTS: Obama will win Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maine (three out of four electoral votes), Maryland, Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Romney will win Oklahoma.

they are projecting 78 obama 71romney now on fox.
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64 (Obama)-40 (Romney) now.
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Romney
33
51%/ 3,191,684

Obama
3
48%/ 3,034,673
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
romney pulling closer in NC now.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
NBC says Romney too GA and is up too 49


You can count on Romney for GA.
The most democratic area is prob the downtown atlanta area.
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Quoting ncstorm:


He must be watching Fox..


lets try our best not to start anything tonight.
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AND they took off my favorite shows to televise the election. Can you imagine that?
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NBC says Romney too GA and is up too 49
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114772
I would love to see Rice. Both Obama and Romney scare the crap out of me. I hate being lied to, and I hate some of the things Romney has said. No win situation for me.
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Quoting Dakster:


CNN says Obama is winning Florida. Granted not by much...


Offically...Fla. polls close at 8:00 p.m.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11005
Quoting ncstorm:


He must be watching Fox..


LOL...
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Obama
3
49%/ 2,794,421

Romney
33
50%/ 2,887,753
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
FL and NH turnign Democrat for now, and VA turning Republican....still very early to call a winner, and will likely come back to near even in some of these.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
SarcasticRover @SarcasticRover 14m

REMINDER: The 2016 Presidential Race begins TOMORROW,
so everyone back in your idealogical trenches and hold fast.



I would love to see Christie vs. Hillary!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11005
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11005
SarcasticRover @SarcasticRover 14m

REMINDER: The 2016 Presidential Race begins TOMORROW,
so everyone back in your idealogical trenches and hold fast.

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Quoting Dakster:


CNN says Obama is winning Florida. Granted not by much...


He must be watching Fox..
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Quoting Dakster:


CNN says Obama is winning Florida. Granted not by much...

Yeah, it keeps flipping.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Romney leading in FL, OH, and VA. Still room to change.


CNN says Obama is winning Florida. Granted not by much...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I would much rather Obama win.


why? just curious.
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Quoting WunderBlogAdmin:
As an Election Day present and in recognition of the fact that no one can talk about anything else today the Admins will allow discussion of election results this evening.

Please keep it civil and don't let the discussion descend into personal attacks.
You don't say? Well, alrighty then. (stretches arms...cracks knuckles...takes a deep breath...grins...begins typing...)

So far as climate change--one of the most important issues of our time (in fact, of all time)--is concerned, not a single Presidential candidate has done anywhere near enough. But that doesn't mean the two primary Presidential candidates are equal in how they view the problem. In fact, one has openly ridiculed both climate science and climate scientists, while the other has shown at least a modicum of support for them. One has promised to strip federal funding for alternative energy while continuing to massively subsidize Big Oil companies, while the other has vowed to end those fossil fuel subsidies. One believes that corporations are people and that regulating business is wrong, while the other knows what history has taught: regulations are the only way to put the brakes on runaway greed.

Bottom line: there is a huge difference between the candidates. We can only hope that voters who care about the planet they leave for their children and grandchildren pick(ed) wisely...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13470
285. txjac
Quoting Dakster:


Early voting in your neck of the woods?


Yep, and it appears that many took advantage of it. I'm in Houston Texas
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Romney leading in FL, OH, and VA. Still room to change.
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Ohio exit polls going to obama right now.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I just thought it was funny they asked a GOP source this question:


7:44 PMAri Fleischer @AriFleischer
My GOP Ohio source say D turnout in Dem Cuyahoga Co precincts is low and R turnout in R districts there is high.
If that is true it is bad for Obama, that county usually decides Ohio
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Quoting txjac:


I thought that I would be facing a line as well so I left work early ...there was only ONE person ahead of me ...maybe the people in my area dont vote?


Early voting in your neck of the woods?
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I just thought it was funny they asked a GOP source this question:


7:44 PMAri Fleischer @AriFleischer
My GOP Ohio source say D turnout in Dem Cuyahoga Co precincts is low and R turnout in R districts there is high.
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Quoting pcola57:


I wasn't doubting you SunriseSteeda,
And I had bad info..I apoligise..



Note to self: I promised to stay out of this and I will..
No more postings!!!!


Watch pcola post every now and then with the same reminder at the bottom....lol
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The NAM and its derivatives sure are interesting this evening...
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277. txjac
Quoting Dakster:


Shoot, my wife is still inline waiting to vote. (I voted this morning -- but it still took HOURS to do it)

No way Florida will be in anytime soon. Some heavy populated counties still have voters IN LINE.


I thought that I would be facing a line as well so I left work early ...there was only ONE person ahead of me ...maybe the people in my area dont vote?
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Right now...Romney 33....Obama 3
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11005
Quoting Astrometeor:


based off of data from exit polls and other polls that show romney is safe in SC, unless something interesting happens



I see now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114772

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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