Wednesday's Nor'easter to have lower impact than originally feared

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:11 PM GMT on November 06, 2012

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An early-season Nor'easter is taking shape along the coast of South Carolina today, but is now forecast to be weaker and move farther offshore than originally forecast, resulting in lower impacts to the New Jersey and New York coasts than originally feared. The storm will head north-northeast along the coast on Wednesday, intensifying into a 990 mb Nor'easter, a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY, by Wednesday evening. The storm will likely bring wind gusts up to 50 mph and a storm surge of 2 - 3 feet along the coasts of Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, including New York City. High waves of 10 - 20 feet will ride on top of this surge, and cause moderate beach erosion along much of the coastline damaged by Hurricane Sandy. The greatest flooding will occur during the Wednesday early afternoon high tide cycle, near 1 pm EST. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between the new moon and full moon. The Nor'easter's strongest winds will likely affect eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, where wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible Wednesday evening and Thursday. The storm's heaviest rains will stay offshore, and only Eastern Massachusetts can expect to see more than 1" of rain. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit snowfall amounts to perhaps 1 - 2" along a swath from Northern New Jersey northeastwards, across Western Massachusetts and into Maine. While the storm will slow down recovery efforts from Hurricane Sandy, this is a pretty ordinary Nor'easter of the type the Northeast sees several times per year, and will not cause major damage.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for 1 pm EST Wednesday, November 7, 2012, from the 12Z (7 am EST) run of the GFS model made on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to affect Southern New Jersey, eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts, but miss the areas hardest hit by Sandy--northern New Jersey and the New York City area.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Sandy Hook, NJ for Wednesday's Nor'easter, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.7', occurring Wednesday afternoon. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 pm Wednesday afternoon, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.8' around 1 pm Wednesday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 8.6' storm surge to Sandy Hook before their tide gauge failed, with the storm tide reaching 13.2' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.)

More Sandy links
I gave a TED talk in Bermuda in October 2011, and presented a list of nine potential $100 billion weather disasters that could happen in the next 30 years. Number six on my list was a hurricane hitting New York City. “We really don’t know what climate change is going to do to hurricanes,” I said, “but it makes sense that it’ll probably make the strongest ones stronger.” If you want to see what I had to say about a hurricane hitting New York City, plus the other eight disasters I think have at least a 10% chance of happening in the next 30 years, the 18-minute video is up on the main TED site. (I've since updated my list to twelve potential $100 billion disasters, and plan on running a blog series on the topic in 2013.)

Was Sandy a hurricane at landfall? Lee Grenci, a senior lecturer and forecaster at the Department of Meteorology at Penn State, weighs in on the matter in this guest blog post. He presents evidence that Sandy was not a hurricane at landfall, and was instead a rapidly evolving hybrid storm. Lee , who is a frequent contributor to Weatherwise magazine, will be joining wunderground as a featured blogger in December, and we're looking forward to having his excellent writings!

Be sure to vote today!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Bielle:

What is this you keep quoting: popular vote? What is your source?


He will not his source. It is a dark secret that only the keeper knows.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
gah...Florida keeps flip-flopping.


You are too young to remember the 2000 election. The only time the Supreme Court elected a President.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10969
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
gah...Florida keeps flip-flopping.


its a pancake
its flip floppity,

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
gah...Florida keeps flip-flopping.

Like a pancake...
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
gah...Florida keeps flip-flopping.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Results Presidential Race

Romney
88
52%/ 8,261,202
Obama
78
47%/ 7,529,074
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Romney
82
52%/ 6,626,413
Obama
78
47%/ 6,052,588


What is this you keep quoting: popular vote? What is your source?
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 615
Romney wins Arkansas...WWE star Linda McMahon loses.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10969
Obama 78 Romney 76 on ABC

romney 88 obama 78 on fox, they gave some southern votes out already that are a given.
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Romney projected to get AR and TN.
per CNN
64-73
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Pennsylvania barely any reporting yet....But i really think obama will win.
But we need a shocker in every election, pennsylvania could be it.
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Quoting Articuno:
Oh god the irony rofl.

I thought we never wanted politics on here xD


Once every four years is not a bad thing.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10969
Results Presidential Race

Romney
82
52%/ 7,082,483
Obama
78
47%/ 6,459,733
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Oh god the irony rofl.

I thought we never wanted politics on here xD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Romney leading popular vote so far by up to 5% but losing electoral college still
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Current state of the map...

Obama is currently leading in Ohio, but Romney has turned some counties which may work in his favor.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm anticipating the election results almost as much as I am the 00Z model runs!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
Mitt Romney
Republican Party
Vote%: 51.77%
Votes: 5,260,766
40

Barack Obama
Democratic Party
Vote%: 47.21%
Votes: 4,797,772
64

Trending Obama: CO, IA, MI, NV, NH, OH, PA, VA, WI
Trending Romney: FL, NC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Romney
82
52%/ 6,626,413
Obama
78
47%/ 6,052,588

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
How's the weather?
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CNN Senior Congressional Producer Ted Barrett

(CNN) - Maine elected former Gov. Angus King to the Senate Tuesday, CNN projected.

King, an independent, steadfastly has refused to say if he will organize with Democrats or Republicans when he gets to Washington, meaning if the Senate is narrowly divided after Tuesday's election, he could determine which party gets majority control.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good night, bloggers. Think purple.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Romney
82
52%/ 6,147,304
Obama
64
47%/ 5,609,892
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
(CNN) - CNN has projected Democratic Governor Jack Markell will be serving a second term as governor of Delaware, beating his Republican opponent Jeff Cragg.

Delaware has become an increasingly reliable Democratic state and with the defeat of former Rep. Mike Castle in the 2010 U.S. Senate primary, the state now has no Republicans in statewide elected office. Cragg, a small business owner from Wilmington was unlikely to change the GOP's fortunes, especially in a presidential election year with Vice President Joe Biden, a Delaware native, on the Democratic ticket.
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:
I don't like Obama or Romney, I extremely dislike Romney but i dislike Obama aswell.

I was left in a pickle therefore i decided to sit this election out.



Many other choices on the ballot - not that they had a chance. Did you at least vote for any of the other 10 pages of stuff on the ballot?
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Quoting Dakster:


Now that would be interesting. Going to a three party system..


I sure hope so!

Quoting txjac:


I liked Gary Johnson ..truly wish that we had that third party!


He is the third party right now.
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Here is a nice interactive map you can use.

Link

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25308
I don't like Obama or Romney, I extremely dislike Romney but i dislike Obama aswell.

I was left in a pickle therefore i decided to sit this election out.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Romney
82
52%/ 5,689,566
Obama
64
47%/ 5,184,619

CBS
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
346. txjac
Quoting VaStormGuy:


Gary Johnson of the Libertarian party has a chance at getting 5% of the vote today, which will give them major party status.


I liked Gary Johnson ..truly wish that we had that third party!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VaStormGuy:


Gary Johnson of the Libertarian party has a chance at getting 5% of the vote today, which will give them major party status.


Now that would be interesting. Going to a three party system..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Per CNN btw,

Ohio - 13%

57%obama
42%romney
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Will a Third party compete with the big 2. Maybe oneday.


Gary Johnson of the Libertarian party has a chance at getting 5% of the vote today, which will give them major party status.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
342. txjac
Wall Street Journal

Obama - 64
Romney - 40
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CNN 64 - 56
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
56% reported florida per cnn

48%obama
51%romney

here we go again, i wonder what effects independents will hve.
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79 - 82 - Fox News.
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CNN finally gave GA to romney!

Woohoo!
not unexpected lol.
So romney here we only got paul ryan here once.
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64-56 according to CNN.
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Thanks TAZ...

Funny, FOX has an article about us Floridians braving the Tropical heat for hours to vote.

Personally, I am more impressed with the New Yorkers and New Jersians that had to tread water for hours to vote. And those that braved snow or very cold conditions to vote.
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CBS just showed Romney ahead in NC. And 82 Romney, 64 Obama but Maybe I got the red and blue and purple mixed up.

Maine elected an independent to US Senate. He will replace the lady Senator who retired. Out of being exasperated at legislators not being able to cooperate according to a TV interview I saw Sunday.
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Jeff Masters and vice president Jim Cantore

Vs.

Joe Bastardi and vice president Al Roker


Vote?
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FL and NC going to romney by a small margin so far, still a small amount of the vote in.
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225 Grothar: Who's running again?

Yep, goes straight into politics after the end of every Season.
Someday, the St. Louis Wolves are gonna need a new first baseman.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Romney
82
52%/ 4,684,680

Obama
64
47%/ 4,216,230


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
As of 8:05pm ET, NBC News declares

Barack Obama the projected winner in DC, IL, RI, MA, MD, ME, DE, and CT.

Mitt Romney the projected the projected winner in AL, GA, MS, TN, and OK. #NBCPolitics
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5995
Romney winning popular vote so far, losing electoral college, that could end up being the story.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:
Every major news outlet has a different count. If you post your 'count' can you post your 'source'? or am I asking too much now.

Obama V Romney

64 - 40 CNN

79 - 71 FOX


NBC has 82-64
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114707
Quoting Grothar:



Maine?

I meant Massachusetts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Every major news outlet has a different count. If you post your 'count' can you post your 'source'? or am I asking too much now.

Obama V Romney

64 - 40 CNN

79 - 71 FOX
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


that was expected.
I'm sure it was. But it means something that the people who know him best have rejected him in the majority. As with so much else tonight, I guess we'll see...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13455

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.