Wednesday's Nor'easter to have lower impact than originally feared

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:11 PM GMT on November 06, 2012

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An early-season Nor'easter is taking shape along the coast of South Carolina today, but is now forecast to be weaker and move farther offshore than originally forecast, resulting in lower impacts to the New Jersey and New York coasts than originally feared. The storm will head north-northeast along the coast on Wednesday, intensifying into a 990 mb Nor'easter, a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY, by Wednesday evening. The storm will likely bring wind gusts up to 50 mph and a storm surge of 2 - 3 feet along the coasts of Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, including New York City. High waves of 10 - 20 feet will ride on top of this surge, and cause moderate beach erosion along much of the coastline damaged by Hurricane Sandy. The greatest flooding will occur during the Wednesday early afternoon high tide cycle, near 1 pm EST. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between the new moon and full moon. The Nor'easter's strongest winds will likely affect eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, where wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible Wednesday evening and Thursday. The storm's heaviest rains will stay offshore, and only Eastern Massachusetts can expect to see more than 1" of rain. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit snowfall amounts to perhaps 1 - 2" along a swath from Northern New Jersey northeastwards, across Western Massachusetts and into Maine. While the storm will slow down recovery efforts from Hurricane Sandy, this is a pretty ordinary Nor'easter of the type the Northeast sees several times per year, and will not cause major damage.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for 1 pm EST Wednesday, November 7, 2012, from the 12Z (7 am EST) run of the GFS model made on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to affect Southern New Jersey, eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts, but miss the areas hardest hit by Sandy--northern New Jersey and the New York City area.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Sandy Hook, NJ for Wednesday's Nor'easter, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.7', occurring Wednesday afternoon. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 pm Wednesday afternoon, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.8' around 1 pm Wednesday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 8.6' storm surge to Sandy Hook before their tide gauge failed, with the storm tide reaching 13.2' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.)

More Sandy links
I gave a TED talk in Bermuda in October 2011, and presented a list of nine potential $100 billion weather disasters that could happen in the next 30 years. Number six on my list was a hurricane hitting New York City. “We really don’t know what climate change is going to do to hurricanes,” I said, “but it makes sense that it’ll probably make the strongest ones stronger.” If you want to see what I had to say about a hurricane hitting New York City, plus the other eight disasters I think have at least a 10% chance of happening in the next 30 years, the 18-minute video is up on the main TED site. (I've since updated my list to twelve potential $100 billion disasters, and plan on running a blog series on the topic in 2013.)

Was Sandy a hurricane at landfall? Lee Grenci, a senior lecturer and forecaster at the Department of Meteorology at Penn State, weighs in on the matter in this guest blog post. He presents evidence that Sandy was not a hurricane at landfall, and was instead a rapidly evolving hybrid storm. Lee , who is a frequent contributor to Weatherwise magazine, will be joining wunderground as a featured blogger in December, and we're looking forward to having his excellent writings!

Be sure to vote today!

Jeff Masters

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Romney now slightly up in FL, also with a slight lead in NC, if he loses either of those he's done. I think he'll probably take both of them though.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8033
Quoting Neapolitan:
Obama is now projected to win Michigan (among many other states), the state where Romney was born and raised.

That's gonna leave an even bigger mark.

Hehe, we're just about the bluest state in the union up here, no surprise Obama won MA. MI is definitely more interesting though, that was supposed to be closer.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8033
Um, Hello? Anyone have any updates on the storm heading my way? lol...
Long Island NY?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Results Presidential Race

Romney
153
51%/ 13,561,445


Obama
123
48%/ 12,703,153

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
Quoting Bluestorm5:
It's expected though...

It wasn't totally expected, it was pretty close.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Republicans have kept control of the House. Unfortunately that means another couple years of gridlock if the democrats keep the Senate, which they probably will. We just need one party in control of the House, Senate, and White House and something would get done...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8033
Quoting Tazmanian:
things are not looking good for Obama
It's still very, very close race. All of states that have turn red or blue is expected.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8074
Quoting Tazmanian:
things are not looking good for Obama


How do you figure? He's currently leading in a couple of "battleground" states. Several states which are pretty much guaranteed to go democrat (such as CA) aren't even done voting yet.

So far, there hasn't been any major deviations from what has been expected.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Obama is now projected to win Michigan, the state where Romney was born and raised.

That's gonna leave an even bigger mark.
It's expected though...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8074
416. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting Tazmanian:
things are not looking good for Obama


Still early Taz .. the states are going as expected so far ..
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Quoting Slamguitar:


The only one that's winning right now is Prop 1.

It says it is tied on WXYZ.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting Neapolitan:
Wow, Obama is projected to take Massachusetts--the state for which Romney was governor, and where he has lived for 40 years.

That's gonna leave a mark...
Obama is now projected to win Michigan (among many other states), the state where Romney was born and raised.

That's gonna leave an even bigger mark.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13796
MSNBC...Wisconsin runs out of ballots at polling locations.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11538
Results Presidential Race

Romney
153
51%/ 12,901,843

Obama
123
48%/ 12,072,839

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
Link

Oooo, pretty colors.
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things are not looking good for Obama
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting wxchaser97:

Well, my channel 7(WXYZ Detroit) shows 5 of the 6 proposals failing.


The only one that's winning right now is Prop 1.
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CNN projects Obama gets my home state(MI).
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
By Miranda Leitsinger, NBC News

BREEZY POINT, N.Y., Updated at 8:00 p.m. ET -- Many people living in communities devastated by Superstorm Sandy broke off from their cleanups to vote Tuesday in the presidential election, with some casting their ballots by flashlight, in tents or mobile vans. Some voters faced long lines, while others experienced glitches with New Jersey’s email voting system

Election officials in New Jersey and New York made special provisions for voters whose homes were damaged or destroyed after Sandy pounded the Northeast, leaving many homeless and without gas to fuel their cars, and polling stations without power. Some 630,000 people and businesses in the two states, the bulk in New Jersey, still don’t have electricity, according to officials and The Associated Press.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Results Presidential Race

Romney
153
51%/ 12,580,239

Obama
123
48%/ 11,759,906

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
Obama takes the mitten.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
404. MahFL
No one ever said getting a degree would guarantee you a good job.
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Quoting Slamguitar:
Looks like I voted for all the losing ballot proposals in Michigan.

No one wants a better clean energy powered state.


Well, my channel 7(WXYZ Detroit) shows 5 of the 6 proposals failing.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Blue to left is Vigo County, IN. Wrong only 2x since 1880s. @BarackObama wins by 162 votes.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
To all the college kids voting today for Obama. Have fun flipping burgers because that is what the majority of you will be doing when you graduate.


To all Middle schoolers planning to go to college when you graduate, guess what you wont be going if Romney wins, so thank goodness the burger flipping jobs will be there:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Results Presidential Race

Romney
88
51%/ 11,529,856

Obama
78
48%/ 10,731,367

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
Quoting Slamguitar:


Sooo, is that good or bad news if I'm getting a bachelors of science in hamburger patty flipping mechanics?

More competition?


Made me laugh.
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 616
Quoting clwstmchasr:
To all the college kids voting today for Obama. Have fun flipping burgers because that is what the majority of you will be doing when you graduate.


Sooo, is that good or bad news if I'm getting a bachelors of science in hamburger patty flipping mechanics?

More competition?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


just reporting whats come out lol.

I know..LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Results Presidential Race

Romney
88
51%/ 11,224,371

Obama
78
47%/ 10,366,019

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984

President (Florida totals)

President

2,182 of 6,153 (35 %) Precincts Reporting

Barack Obama

2,612,182

51 %

Mitt Romney

2,502,046

49 %

Gary Johnson

24,230

0 %

Jill Stein

5,117

0 %

Roseanne Barr

4,590

0 %

Tom Stevens

2,313

0 %
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11538
Quoting pcola57:


8 county's in the NW panhandle haven't even reported yet..just sayin'.. :)


just reporting whats come out lol.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
50% 49% obama winning.

in florida.


8 county's in the NW panhandle haven't even reported yet..just sayin'.. :)
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50% Obama, 49% Romney in Florida according to CNN.

I think Romney may just squeak out. This is crucial to his path to 270.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32807
Florida is wicked close. Romney needs that one. I personally think Obama edges out Romney but it'll be real close.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8033
Looks like I voted for all the losing ballot proposals in Michigan.

No one wants a better clean energy powered state.

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50% 49% obama winning.

in florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Results Presidential Race

Romney
88
51%/ 10,762,629

Obama
78
47%/ 9,928,825

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
romney82 obama64

per CNN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Results Presidential Race

Romney
88
52%/ 9,761,998
Obama
78
47%/ 8,912,248


CBS
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
At 59% in FL

51obama
49romney
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there are still people waiting in line to vote for many states..final poll results wont be tally until well after 11 tonight..hope you got the coffee brewing because this will be an all nighter..
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Obama up 51-48 now in florida.
approaching 60% now.


That is a surprise.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11538
Obama up 51-48 now in florida.
approaching 60% now.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Obama winning cities in Ohio, but Romney most of everywhere outside of them.
But its leaning to obama with the cities.


It's like watching the Super Bowl...Cheering for your favorite team.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11538
Obama winning cities in Ohio, but Romney most of everywhere outside of them.
But its leaning to obama with the cities.
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Quoting Bielle:

What is this you keep quoting: popular vote? What is your source?


He will not his source. It is a dark secret that only the keeper knows.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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