Nor'easter coming Wednesday and Thursday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on November 05, 2012

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An early-season Nor'easter will form off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains of 1 - 2" over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada, and intensify into a medium-strength Nor'easter with a central pressure near 984 mb by Wednesday evening. While the exact track of the storm still has considerable uncertainty, the models are pretty unified on the timing and strength of this storm. A 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 - 45 mph will likely affect portions of the coast from Maryland to Massachusetts. A more westerly track, as currently predicted by our top model, the European ECMWF model, would likely result in the storm's strongest winds affecting the New Jersey coast. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet would likely hit the New Jersey coast, and a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet would likely impact the western end of Long Island Sound. These surges would be accompanied by high, battering waves, capable of causing moderate to locally severe erosion along the coastal areas pounded by Hurricane Sandy last week. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between when the new moon and full moon occur. A more easterly track for the storm, as predicted by the GFS model, would put the Nor'easter's strongest winds along eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, resulting in lower storm surges for New Jersey and New York City. Accompanying the storm will be a swath of 2 - 3" of rain, with the heaviest rains falling over Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit its intensity and snowfall amounts. Snow is not expected in coastal area, but the Nor'easter has the potential to bring more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of New England.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for Wednesday evening, November 7, 2012, from the ECMWF model (left) and GFS model (right). The ECMWF model was run using data from 00Z (7 pm EST) Sunday night, and the GFS model was run using data beginning at 06Z (1 am EST) on Monday. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to extend from coastal Virginia to Massachusetts.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Atlantic City, NJ for Wednesday's Nor'easter, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.3', occurring just after midnight local time on Wednesday night. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 am Thursday morning, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.4' around 1 am Thursday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 5.81' storm surge to Atlantic City, with the highest storm tide reaching 8.9' above MLLW.

Jeff Masters

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522. wxchaser97
1:02 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7959
521. GeorgiaStormz
4:52 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
No, he didn't. A single comment was deleted due to an overabundance of down votes by hypersensitive types. It happens...How much you wanna put down? ;-)



wow.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
520. wxchaser97
4:41 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting StormPro:


Have you seen one this morning that is related to weather or science? No...so just stop, vote your convictions and .....

I was just saying that some political comments are allowed, geez.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7959
519. wxchaser97
4:40 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
no your wrong, according to the NWS, gusts up to 65 mph will bring down power lines and weakened tree's, minor to moderate coastal flooding and even more beach erosion..dont let the people up there let their guard down..Listen folks to your NWS..the only TRUE voice out there..prepare and stay safe......not like last time

Ok, Dr. Masters did just say this will be a pretty normal Nor'easter and it won't cause major damage.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7959
518. Neapolitan
4:31 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
I think Nea just got a little unexpected vacation.
No, he didn't. A single comment was deleted due to an overabundance of down votes by hypersensitive types. It happens...
Quoting washingtonian115:
.But I bet the ban is in affect for 24 hours.
How much you wanna put down? ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13611
517. eyeofbetsy
4:23 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting FatPenguin:
For those asking what % of global warming is AGW...

By definition, it is the warming caused by burning fossil fuels over the last 200+ years in addition to expected warming. We're coming out of an Ice Age and a long-term (1,000s of years) warming trend was already happening.

Not sure of specific percentage of AGW vs "normal warming" for last 200 years, but it's significant, especially the last few decades.


And what percentage does the changing magnectic field contribute to warming if at all? We can't answer those questions because it's complicated folks. The politicos have already declared that Sandy is proof that AGW is real. The argument should be simply to do what we can to make the air we breath cleaner and that's gonna happen thru technology.
Member Since: July 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 49
516. percylives
4:16 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting Midnight092289:
I have been lurking on this blog since '05, and I will use my first post to call out Mr. Intelligent from Naples:

I appreciate all the climate change research you present, and you usually do it with an objective tone. But have you done any research on this "critical thinking" you speak of? I think you might be surprised by which political party has the higher IQ; and for that matter also gives more money and time to charitable causes, produces more, has more humility (clearly evidenced here), and is generally happier. Look it up. The liberals have convinced the world that they have the market cornered on goodness, but it is actually deceit in which they are masterful.

I do love Dr. Master's blog, your contributions usually, and I hope I don't get blocked or ignored (although I am capableof going another 7 years without posting). I promise to talk about the weather in the future, I am just hypersensitive today, as it seems you are.


Midnight, are you in the Green Party? You sound Green with the higher IQ, charitable causes, humility, etc, etc. If you are, I share your frustration. But we do what we can.

Now back to the climate where Mr. Intelligent is a fabulous asset to this blog.

Good luck New Jersey and New York in the coming storm.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 99
515. Luisport
4:15 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Actually GFS full-sfc pressure fields show 983 mb for minimum -- nestled near the coast w/strong winds. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/265849117069160 448
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
514. Luisport
4:14 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
2 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Canadian RGEM drops Nor'easter low to 979 mb suggesting tight inner-core that e.g. GFS may not resolve. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/265848615715614 722/photo/1
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
513. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:11 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
512. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:10 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
511. Progster
4:10 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
They did put showers and some wind in the forecast and nothing else.

I see Nea went off the brink today.All I have to say is that who ever floats your boat the most you vote for and you shouldn't have anyone(especially on this blog) influence your decision.Either than that no more politics from me and vote wisely.


Its waaaaay too early to start backing off on the potential impacts of this storm. Because the trough is elongated from the center to the ENE, onshore wave and surge are going to be serious for the coast from NJ north due to fetch, the instability of the airmass N of the centre (NE winds moving over relatively warm SSTs) and relatively slow storm movement after Thursday morning.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a little wet snow in DC :)
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
509. ChillinInTheKeys
4:07 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
"A giant flood of Arctic meltwater may have triggered an ancient 1,200-year-long chill nicknamed the "Big Freeze," the last major cold age on Earth, a new study finds."

Link
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 695
508. washingtonian115
4:07 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
The admin had finally gotten tired of the sarcasm.I said that sarcasm was going to be a big part of his downfall before people bashed me and left their usual insulting post.I'm not going to say I told you so.But I bet the ban is in affect for 24 hours.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17485
507. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:05 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
505. Skyepony (Mod)
4:05 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
South Korea was forced to shut down two nuclear reactors on Monday to replace components that had not been properly vetted, a minister said, warning of "unprecedented" power shortages to follow. Knowledge Economy Minister Hong Suk-Woo said the "non-core" components posed no safety threat and were unrelated to a string of systems malfunctions at reactors this year that triggered calls for a safety review. The two affected units at the Yeonggwang nuclear complex may remain offline until early January, as engineers replace more than 5,000 fuses, cooling fans and other parts for which suppliers had provided faked quality certificates. "Comprehensive safety check-ups are necessary at these two reactors where the uncertified parts were used extensively," Hong said. "It's inevitable that we will experience unprecedented power shortage during the coming winter with the two reactors shut," he added.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38684
504. FatPenguin
4:01 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
For those asking what % of global warming is AGW...

By definition, it is the warming caused by burning fossil fuels over the last 200+ years in addition to expected warming. We're coming out of an Ice Age and a long-term (1,000s of years) warming trend was already happening.

Not sure of specific percentage of AGW vs "normal warming" for last 200 years, but it's significant, especially the last few decades.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
502. GeorgiaStormz
3:58 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:


What did Nea do? I missed it


He made a comment about how all these bad things were true about Obama, all the conspiracies about him ever brought up, and to remember them when you go to vote.
His usual sarcasm.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
499. Skyepony (Mod)
3:56 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38684
498. ChillinInTheKeys
3:54 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:


What did Nea do? I missed it


See post 443 or 445.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 695
497. icmoore
3:54 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
496. RitaEvac
3:53 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
They did put showers and some wind in the forecast and nothing else.

I see Nea went off the brink today.All I have to say is that who ever floats your boat the most you vote for and you shouldn't have anyone(especially on this blog) influence your decision.Either than that no more politics from me and vote wisely.


What did Nea do? I missed it
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
495. ChillinInTheKeys
3:52 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
I think he meant to drop the A from AGW.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 695
494. GeorgiaStormz
3:51 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Wow my response to Nea got me my 3rd or 4th removed comment ever......admin really onto this election talk today.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
492. percylives
3:48 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting clwstmchasr:


What percentage of AGW are as a result of man versus natural causes?


Is that a trick question? I hope so.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 99
491. plutorising
3:48 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
i thought the post was funny. as was the exlurker who called him mr intelligent. but today's not the day, i agree. put it on facebook.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 80
490. wxchaser97
3:47 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


and the other 364 days?

We have weather... I can't think of anything else really for the politics though.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7959
489. ChillinInTheKeys
3:46 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


and the other 364 days?


Should be weather or other interesting things that effect it. 730 days. We get to skip next year.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 695
488. ncstorm
3:44 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Well it is election day, and we have weather.


and the other 364 days?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
487. ChillinInTheKeys
3:43 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
Weather and Politics..yeah I can see how they are related..NOT!

Have a great day everyone!



Well it is election day, and we have weather.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 695
486. Luisport
3:42 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
http://imgur.com/YaMWu
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
485. wxchaser97
3:42 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting MississippiWx:
Wow. Nea got banned, eh?

He is certainly one of the more intelligent bloggers here, but his view on politics/AGW certainly is suffocating at times. By the way, vote as you choose, people. You are not less educated than everyone else because of who you believe is the best candidate.

Anyway, there is a huge storm coming for the NE again. Should probably stay on track before I join Nea in WU jail. Good day, everyone.

Its you, yes Nea did... No one should be able to change your opinion on voting.
Anyway a nor'easter will be headed to the Mid Atlantic/NE. Also I strongly believe we will see one more storm before the season ends.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7959
484. MississippiWx
3:38 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Wow. Nea got banned, eh?

He is certainly one of the more intelligent bloggers here, but his view on politics/AGW certainly is suffocating at times. By the way, vote as you choose, people. You are not less educated than everyone else because of who you believe is the best candidate.

Anyway, there is a huge storm coming for the NE again. Should probably stay on track before I join Nea in WU jail. Good day, everyone.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
483. LargoFl
3:37 PM GMT on November 06, 2012

Already ravaged by Sandy, the Jersey Shore is on track to get exactly what it doesn't need: another siege of powerful, sand-removing onshore winds, perhaps gusting to 65 m.p.h.

A potent, winterlike storm - perhaps strong enough to generate snow in the immediate Philadelphia area - is almost certain to punish the region from Wednesday into Thursday, meteorologists are warning.

With high-wind and coastal-flood watches in effect, the likely upshot of what the National Weather Service is calling "a particularly dangerous situation" will be additional trauma for a region still picking up the millions of pieces from Sandy's destruction.

Although storm surges and wave heights would not be in a league with Sandy's, in Shore towns where dunes have been leveled, the storm is expected to set off fresh flooding.

Major coastal flooding again is possible, and moderate coastal flooding is likely, said Gary Szatkowski, meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly.

The coastal storm expected to form Tuesday and intensify Wednesday would be a traditional nor'easter - named for the strong winds from the northeast that such storms generate - and not a "hybrid" like Sandy, born in the tropics and powered up in the mid-Atlantic.

Although the storm would not pack Sandy's unique powers, the wave attacks will last substantially longer, perhaps through three high tides, said Jon Miller, director of the Center
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40993
482. washingtonian115
3:37 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
well I hope this turns out right..would be great if this coming storm moved way out in the Atlantic..but they say something is blocking it from doing so..
They did put showers and some wind in the forecast and nothing else.

I see Nea went off the brink today.All I have to say is that who ever floats your boat the most you vote for and you shouldn't have anyone(especially on this blog) influence your decision.Either than that no more politics from me and vote wisely.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17485
480. ncstorm
3:33 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Weather and Politics..yeah I can see how they are related..NOT!

Have a great day everyone!

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
479. LargoFl
3:31 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40993
478. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:29 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Our local mets still think we won't see much out of this.

And you probably won't in Washington, but it'll be much worse for areas farther north, unfortunately.

Mandatory evacuations are once again going up for the New Jersey coastline.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
477. ILwthrfan
3:28 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
GFS wind swath in knots for the nor'easter. It's 925mb so it should be a little less at the surface but dang..



Watching the system right now on satelitte has me concerned it has a vigorous look to it.

Also the system that is to phase with that system in Georgia is looking a bit stronger than what models predicted.

Wouldn't surprise me if we do end up with a sub 980mb Nor'easter, although chances could be this passes a little further south than first thought too. Going to be a squeeze play. 100 miles will mean a world of difference in the weather you get from this system.



Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1535
476. LargoFl
3:27 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40993
475. LargoFl
3:26 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Our local mets still think we won't see much out of this.
well I hope this turns out right..would be great if this coming storm moved way out in the Atlantic..but they say something is blocking it from doing so..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40993
474. washingtonian115
3:23 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Our local mets still think we won't see much out of this.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17485
473. TropicTraveler
3:22 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting JerseyShoreGirl:
My home passed inspection so we finally just got power. So many did not and they are tired, cold, and worried about flooding again. I am here to see what this Nor'easter has in store for us. I worry about flooding here on the Barnegat Bay? I live by the bay at the mouth of the Inlet, and we have nothing protecting us anymore. I hear the wind gusts are estimated up to 60 mph, which we are usually ready for and can handle, but things are not normal by any means! Anyone believe we will see significant higher gusts?

Due to the coming storm tomorrow we are seeing mandatory evacuations in some waterfront communities, but nothing said for my area yet.

Keeping fingers crossed for everyone out there. I was able to see the damage last night on the news and I am just in shock. My heart goes out to everyone!

I will frequent this board for more information, but wanted to say thank you to everyone for being VERY HELPFUL as some posts gave us excellent forecasts. I am amazed at how accurate some of you have been with predicting Sandy, and now this Nor'eastern.


Great Post! Stay safe in the storm.
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 927
472. LargoFl
3:22 PM GMT on November 06, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
GFS wind swath in knots for the nor'easter. It's 925mb so it should be a little less at the surface but dang..

..gee in the same area as sandy was
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40993

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.