Nor'easter coming Wednesday and Thursday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on November 05, 2012

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An early-season Nor'easter will form off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains of 1 - 2" over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada, and intensify into a medium-strength Nor'easter with a central pressure near 984 mb by Wednesday evening. While the exact track of the storm still has considerable uncertainty, the models are pretty unified on the timing and strength of this storm. A 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 - 45 mph will likely affect portions of the coast from Maryland to Massachusetts. A more westerly track, as currently predicted by our top model, the European ECMWF model, would likely result in the storm's strongest winds affecting the New Jersey coast. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet would likely hit the New Jersey coast, and a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet would likely impact the western end of Long Island Sound. These surges would be accompanied by high, battering waves, capable of causing moderate to locally severe erosion along the coastal areas pounded by Hurricane Sandy last week. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between when the new moon and full moon occur. A more easterly track for the storm, as predicted by the GFS model, would put the Nor'easter's strongest winds along eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, resulting in lower storm surges for New Jersey and New York City. Accompanying the storm will be a swath of 2 - 3" of rain, with the heaviest rains falling over Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit its intensity and snowfall amounts. Snow is not expected in coastal area, but the Nor'easter has the potential to bring more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of New England.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for Wednesday evening, November 7, 2012, from the ECMWF model (left) and GFS model (right). The ECMWF model was run using data from 00Z (7 pm EST) Sunday night, and the GFS model was run using data beginning at 06Z (1 am EST) on Monday. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to extend from coastal Virginia to Massachusetts.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Atlantic City, NJ for Wednesday's Nor'easter, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.3', occurring just after midnight local time on Wednesday night. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 am Thursday morning, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.4' around 1 am Thursday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 5.81' storm surge to Atlantic City, with the highest storm tide reaching 8.9' above MLLW.

Jeff Masters

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Does using my breath as a rear flank downdraft over a boiling pot of water and noodles at the proper angle in order to create a tornado simulation make me a complete nerd? I know it sounds crazy, but try it for yourselves. It's most ideal to have noodles boiling in the water as its easier to see the water vapor that way.

Anyways though, of you blow at a proper angle continuously you can create a nice looking tornado simulation over your boiling pot, I was just doing so while boiling noodles for making macaroni and cheese!
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7441
I'm thinking the 2.0 quake could be an artifact of all the tree and damaged power pole removal in the region of the sensor. Is that a possiblility?
I saw there have been tiny nudges across the East over the last week or two.

Also what is with the slightly negavtive storm surge on the graph for yesterday(gold line) but definitly a positive anomaly in the graph (blue or red - green?)
Was there an offshore wind but observations were still above tide by itself? Why?
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1570
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Expect this to keep flip flopping as we continue to near the event and these prediction models do more times than not over-estimate snowfall. Remember very warm ground temperatures and the timing during the day at which the storms arrive will be the two BIGGEST factors in snowfall potential for this storm.

But totals have slightly increased from last model run across NJ NNE. (on the GFS)



SITE LINK


NAM has snow further NNE but along the same axis from North of NYC to Albany NY.


Another fun site and, to note, it has this upcoming noreaster bottoming at 976 mb on its global link.
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Quoting jerseybreakfast:
We just got our power back last night up here in North Jersey and my commute has been a nightmare! Lots of serious damage to rail lines up here. I'm very fortunate that my home and loved ones are okay, though. Also, I work in NYC and I feel very fortunate that my office wasn't affected.

There are many people in NJ who don't even have homes to go to right now, and it looks like more cold nasty weather is on its way. What a mess.

Thanks to everyone who has shared insights and info about storm preparation. I stocked up on everything I could think of, and I managed to get through a cold dark week tolerably well. I'm just hoping I won't need those supplies again this week!
I am glad you made it through okay. And I would not discount the coming Nor'easter. Resupply your supplies. You can always use them during a snowstorm if you don't need them for the up coming one. In Florida we start our emergency kits June 1 and start using them Dec 1 if we have not already. That includes water, food, batteries. I do not stock my fridge during the summer either. And when we know a storm is coming, everything that is frozen gets thawed and cooked. That is what I call living by the calendar. Good Luck to you and everyone else in the NE.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
Relatively significant cold pool aloft moving over Central and north Florida tomorrow. Supposedly the the air mass will be "too cool and dry" for a severe threat. However, I'm not buying that. I've seen much drier and cooler air masses put out severe weather, in fact it takes very little moisture for severe thunderstorms. With that said if there is any tomorrow it must be a result of something else, maybe not sufficient enough shear and lift needed.

I'm not worried about severe weather tomorrow, I just thought it was interesting.
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Quoting LargoFl:
.........................Check This Lobster out..caught off the coast of Mass..this coloration happens once in 50 million lobsters wow
He looks half cooked!
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Here in the Middle Island area of Long Island, we just got our power back late Saturday, but internet/cable is still down. Thanks to all the info folks imparted about the storm on this site, from Dr Masters to Angela to all everyone who posted info: you guys are my main source of detailed info not only about Sandy, but about any weather. Because of your info, we had a generator and plenty of gas for our power outage, as well as all the supplies we needed, and we're set for the upcoming storm. You guys are the best!
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
HURRICANE FACTS...


Does anyone here know what the weight of an average size hurricane could be???

About..... 1,800,000,000 POUNDS!

so more than a duck
(this will come in handy for 20 questions later)
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Interesting...getting closer but trending further north...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
Expect this to keep flip flopping as we continue to near the event and these prediction models do more times than not over-estimate snowfall. Remember very warm ground temperatures and the timing during the day at which the storms arrive will be the two BIGGEST factors in snowfall potential for this storm.

But totals have slightly increased from last model run across NJ NNE. (on the GFS)



SITE LINK


NAM has snow further NNE but along the same axis from North of NYC to Albany NY.
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Quoting WXHAMVA:


Very Interesting ... how many hurricanes does it take to equal the National Debt (1 lb of rain = 1 dollar)(Debt is $16 Trillion). Answer (if my math is good) 888.89 hurricanes.


And if the US get more hurricanes..the debt is higher.
wow near 900 hurricanes!
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These figures come from the LA Times, deaths in each state from Sandy:

New York – 48

New Jersey - 24

Pennsylvania – 14

Maryland – 11

West Virginia – 7

Connecticut – 4

North Carolina – 2

Virginia – 2

New Hampshire - 1

Total: 113
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Quoting jerseybreakfast:
We just got our power back last night up here in North Jersey and my commute has been a nightmare! Lots of serious damage to rail lines up here. I'm very fortunate that my home and loved ones are okay, though. Also, I work in NYC and I feel very fortunate that my office wasn't affected.

There are many people in NJ who don't even have homes to go to right now, and it looks like more cold nasty weather is on its way. What a mess.

Thanks to everyone who has shared insights and info about storm preparation. I stocked up on everything I could think of, and I managed to get through a cold dark week tolerably well. I'm just hoping I won't need those supplies again this week!
glad you came thru it safely
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Not necessarily always true, Jeff. A magnitude 2.0 up there maybe not. But put a magnitude 2.0 anywhere within 100 miles of the Mississippi Delta in the New Madrid Fault Line and folks will feel that one, albeit very slight. That's because the bedrock is more conducive for transferring shock waves. Much more than the California Fault Lines, at least.
I'm not saying people didn't feel it... I'm just saying that anything they might have felt is VERY slight. I seriously doubt it would wake anyone up, either. (the first article I read about it said it woke people up in the headline, but neglected to mention the magnitude)

It seems like a few people in the media were just looking to "make" some news.
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We just got our power back last night up here in North Jersey and my commute has been a nightmare! Lots of serious damage to rail lines up here. I'm very fortunate that my home and loved ones are okay, though. Also, I work in NYC and I feel very fortunate that my office wasn't affected.

There are many people in NJ who don't even have homes to go to right now, and it looks like more cold nasty weather is on its way. What a mess.

Thanks to everyone who has shared insights and info about storm preparation. I stocked up on everything I could think of, and I managed to get through a cold dark week tolerably well. I'm just hoping I won't need those supplies again this week!
Member Since: August 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
.........................Check This Lobster out..caught off the coast of Mass..this coloration happens once in 50 million lobsters wow
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
103. txjac
Quoting WXHAMVA:


Very Interesting ... how many hurricanes does it take to equal the National Debt (1 lb of rain = 1 dollar)(Debt is $16 Trillion). Answer (if my math is good) 888.89 hurricanes.


LOL ...wish I could plus that more than once!

Thanks for the laugh
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.................................Patrap if your Lurking..stay alert over there ok...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


How Much Does A Hurricane Weigh?

the vid also tells you what a white could and a thundercloud weights...crazy!


Very Interesting ... how many hurricanes does it take to equal the National Debt (1 lb of rain = 1 dollar)(Debt is $16 Trillion). Answer (if my math is good) 888.89 hurricanes.
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HIGH RESOLUTION 00TO48 00Z/12Z RUNS ONLY
RUN 12Z HR 48

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS THROUGH AROUND 9 AM OR SO.
MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS WHEN
DRIVING THROUGH AREAS OF FOG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND 3 TO 5
FEET AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. OPERATORS OF SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE
AREA AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST. A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY OFFSHORE OR PERHAPS RIGHT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38500
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Quoting pcola57:
Well off to the commisary..
I hate grocery shopping(just a confession I'd thought I'd share..LOL)
BBL


I hate going to a clothing store...just hate it
I'll rather go to a restaurant or game store..specially in the mall
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Well off to the commisary..
I hate grocery shopping(just a confession I'd thought I'd share..LOL)
BBL
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I know it's a pain to type that long thing...even to copy and paste...

Call me Max...easier


Ok will do Max.. :)
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Quoting VaStormGuy:


That's over 9,000 kilotons!


indeed...that is just for an average size hurricane...how about for Sandy, Igor and Irene???
Over a trillion pounds?
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Quoting pcola57:


Very cool indeed trHUrrIXC5MMX..thanks for that.. :)


I know it's a pain to type that long thing...even to copy and paste...

Call me Max...easier
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I was wrong...it's even MORE....18,000,000,000 lbs


That's over 9,000 kilotons!
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


How Much Does A Hurricane Weigh?

the vid also tells you what a white could and a thundercloud weights...crazy!


Very cool indeed trHUrrIXC5MMX..thanks for that.. :)
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Quoting kwgirl:
Long Island is beautiful. I love the old homes. But as far as beaches go, well, I just never liked getting all full of sand. I prefer our hard coral beaches and warm gin clear waters to your soft sand and ice cold dark water. I guess it is what you get used to.:)


I'll take the soft pink sand and warm turquoise water of Coquina Beach in Bradenton Beach, Florida. Many happy childhood memories.
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I was wrong...it's even MORE....1,800,000,000 lbs
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Dr. Masters thanks for the blog. You should make that chart refresh as the new updates come out each hour. Atlantic Citys is showing a surge nearing 4ft now and a storm tide peaking near major flood stage 8ft. Flooding will make it into coastal towns again
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Quoting pcola57:


LOL..ok I'll bite..
Can you verify it?


How Much Does A Hurricane Weigh?

the vid also tells you what a white could and a thundercloud weights...crazy!
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Right now the forecast for my area on the weekend is upper 50s to low 60s and sunshine. Couldn't ask for any better weather than that this time of year. Christmas lights are going to be put up early as a weekend like that most likely won't happen again this year.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
HURRICANE FACTS...


Does anyone here know what the weight of an average size hurricane could be???

About..... 1,100,000,000 POUNDS!


LOL..ok I'll bite..
Can you verify it?
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Quoting txjac:


We must be related somehow??? LOL.
My brother is the same ...and yes, God love him
Do we all have the same brother?LOL
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
HURRICANE FACTS...


Does anyone here know what the weight of an average size hurricane could be???

About..... 1,800,000,000 POUNDS!
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Quoting Matt1989:

You are projected to get less than an inch of rain.. not talking a down pour here. North carolina barely got anything from sandy compared to the states north of it.


dang..trolls on a monday but in your case anytime I post a comment..okay, thanks for letting me know, I clearly couldnt read that map I posted.

Have a good day everybody else above the bridge..
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Quoting SyriboTigereyes:


I love how we were taught so long ago that Long Island was a "big fish" and the forks were the back fins. I mean, it really doesn't look that much like a fish.. but I guess as a kid it kinda did? And it stuck ;)

It's such an interesting area, I think. I've lived here my whole life. And where I live, it's the perfect suburban area. Very close to NYC, like 20 minutes away, and not far from getting into CT, NJ and upstate NY. And 5 miles from the beaches. Our beaches may not be crystal clear.. but they are very nice ;)
Long Island is beautiful. I love the old homes. But as far as beaches go, well, I just never liked getting all full of sand. I prefer our hard coral beaches and warm gin clear waters to your soft sand and ice cold dark water. I guess it is what you get used to.:)
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
Quoting pcola57:


My brother never listens either..thats why he's always in trouble(not really bad trouble)..God love him.. :)


We must be related somehow??? LOL.
My brother is the same ...and yes, God love him
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Quoting txjac:


Thanks Pcola ...will talk with my brother. I'm here in Texas and I know that he doesnt pay much attention as he should


My brother never listens either..thats why he's always in trouble(not really bad trouble)..God love him.. :)
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Huge pressure gradient there in SE Greenland...what would the winds between that 1033 mb high and the 993 mb low be??

60-80 mph?
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Quoting pcola57:


I would say you are gonna get some cold air from this one..JMO


Thanks Pcola ...will talk with my brother. I'm here in Texas and I know that he doesnt pay much attention as he should
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Quoting jeffs713:

A magnitude 2.0 can barely be felt by anyone. Heck, a heavy train passing by generates more felt waves.


agreed.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.