Nor'easter coming Wednesday and Thursday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on November 05, 2012

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An early-season Nor'easter will form off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains of 1 - 2" over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada, and intensify into a medium-strength Nor'easter with a central pressure near 984 mb by Wednesday evening. While the exact track of the storm still has considerable uncertainty, the models are pretty unified on the timing and strength of this storm. A 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 - 45 mph will likely affect portions of the coast from Maryland to Massachusetts. A more westerly track, as currently predicted by our top model, the European ECMWF model, would likely result in the storm's strongest winds affecting the New Jersey coast. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet would likely hit the New Jersey coast, and a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet would likely impact the western end of Long Island Sound. These surges would be accompanied by high, battering waves, capable of causing moderate to locally severe erosion along the coastal areas pounded by Hurricane Sandy last week. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between when the new moon and full moon occur. A more easterly track for the storm, as predicted by the GFS model, would put the Nor'easter's strongest winds along eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, resulting in lower storm surges for New Jersey and New York City. Accompanying the storm will be a swath of 2 - 3" of rain, with the heaviest rains falling over Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit its intensity and snowfall amounts. Snow is not expected in coastal area, but the Nor'easter has the potential to bring more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of New England.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for Wednesday evening, November 7, 2012, from the ECMWF model (left) and GFS model (right). The ECMWF model was run using data from 00Z (7 pm EST) Sunday night, and the GFS model was run using data beginning at 06Z (1 am EST) on Monday. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to extend from coastal Virginia to Massachusetts.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Atlantic City, NJ for Wednesday's Nor'easter, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.3', occurring just after midnight local time on Wednesday night. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 am Thursday morning, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.4' around 1 am Thursday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 5.81' storm surge to Atlantic City, with the highest storm tide reaching 8.9' above MLLW.

Jeff Masters

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16trillion divided by 180billion is ~89
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The Nws Storm Prediction Center Has Issued A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch For Portions Of

Southwest Louisiana
Southeast Texas
Coastal Waters

Effective This Monday Afternoon And Evening From 210 PM Until 900
Pm CST.

Hail To 2 Inches In Diameter... Thunderstorm Wind Gusts To 70
Mph... And Dangerous Lightning Are Possible In These Areas.

Discussion... Thunderstorms Are Expected To Develop This Afternoon
Along/Ahead Of An Approaching Cold Front Over Southeast TX And
Southwest LA. The Air Mass In This Region Has Heated/Destabilized
With Mucape Values Over 2000 J/Kg. Despite Relatively Weak Low
Level Winds... Favorable Deep Layer Shear And Mid Level Lapse Rates
Will Promote The Risk Of Hail And Damaging Winds In The Strongest
Cells.


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Quoting LargoFl:


Largo, are you pointing out the area in the Western Caribbean?
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Now they're changing it out now while storms are firing


Just went outside here in Austin. Warm and clear but you can see some very tall cumulus far to the south starting to pop up. Doesn't look all that impressive on radar just yet although decent looking at visual.
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Quoting LargoFl:
..most likely involves union contracts with that area..and i thought that article was debunked as false

Part of the news was false and part of it was true. Decatur Utilities from Alabama was held in Virginia and then told they couldn't work in NJ unless the "affiliated" with the IBEW. Decatur is a non-union company, and affiliating with the IBEW gives them a foot in the door when it comes to organizing, so Decatur wouldn't agree. The two crews are now back in Alabama. Unfortunately, the IBEW controls 100% of utility line work in NJ, and they didn't bend the rules until the story became national news. A few other non-union crews are in NJ now that the IBEW relented. In a mutual aid callout, union affiliation should not be an issue, and the mutual aid agreements state that to be the case. I believe this was some shop stewards that were actin on their own, and things changed once the Edison Electric Institute (which adminsters the electric utility mutual aid program) and FEMA had a talk with the "boys" in NJ. This was still an unfortunate incident, but it shows how things fall apart when there's not a good command and control structure in place.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46658
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46658
lol, on Levi's tropical tidbit facebook page, we have JFV and Portlight man, and some others all speaking their minds
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...BOTH INSTABILITY AND LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE QUITE LIMITED...THEREFORE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE SYSTEM LIKELY NOT AFFECTING OUR REGION
UNTIL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
OR TONIGHT.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46658
Rita..3pm to 8pm CST...........................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46658
Quoting txjac:


I was wondering the same thing


Now they're changing it out now while storms are firing
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Quoting VaStormGuy:


Haven't seen the Euro then... 4-8 inches in the city and more to the west.



Not what I wanted to hear! Oh, well, we did fine during Sandy, this should be a walk in the cold, snowy park. How much snow to the west? I know people keep posting the euro, but I have a hard time seeing all the little numbers.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
For an area that is in slight risk for storms wth are all stations in clear air mode for right now?
rita i think they are for after 3pm cdt til evening
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46658
Quoting LargoFl:
.........................Check This Lobster out..caught off the coast of Mass..this coloration happens once in 50 million lobsters wow
I've had chocolate dipped strawberries before.. but never lobster!
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Quoting RitaEvac:
There was your raindrops in Buda

img style="width: 500px; max-width: 501px;" src="http://radblast-mi-real.wunderground.com/cgi- bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=EWX&brand=wui& ;num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&s cale=0.215& It developed over my house, sure could use the rain here but at least temp is dropping below 90, LOL. Lightning and Thunder southeast of here, waiting on fall to begin here, tired of 90 degrees with humidity and lows near 70. Deer hunting season has started here, it should be at least cool, it seldom gets cold here. Not sure why I own 1 jacket. :)
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there is a spin to some clouds off of south carolina. Is this the nor'easter to be?
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154. txjac
Quoting RitaEvac:
For an area that is in slight risk for storms wth are all stations in clear air mode for right now?


I was wondering the same thing
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Quoting skook:

07:18 AM ET
Magnitude-2.0 quake shakes New Jersey

As if they haven't had enough headaches in New Jersey in the past week, this morning they can add earthquake to the list.

The magnitude-2.0 temblor struck at 1:19 a.m. and was centered two miles south-southeast of Ringwood, New Jersey, not far from the border with New York. The depth was 3.1 miles, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Link

Excellent! Our first catch of the day!
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Quoting indianrivguy:


wellll, you can pick your dog, your cat, your house, your car and your friends. You can even pick your nose, but you cannot pick your relatives... :)



You can also pick your STORM NAMES!
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For an area that is in slight risk for storms wth are all stations in clear air mode for right now?
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Does using my breath as a rear flank downdraft over a boiling pot of water and noodles at the proper angle in order to create a tornado simulation make me a complete nerd? I know it sounds crazy, but try it for yourselves. It's most ideal to have noodles boiling in the water as its easier to see the water vapor that way.

Anyways though, of you blow at a proper angle continuously you can create a nice looking tornado simulation over your boiling pot, I was just doing so while boiling noodles for making macaroni and cheese!


Yes a mac-n-cheesoscale discussion. :)
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Cumulus is really building up here in TX City, rather widespread too.
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There was your raindrops in Buda

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Quoting biff4ugo:
Last question of the day from me,
How does a set of radars measure currents that the hurricane is scrambling? Are these air currents and not water currents? If they are water currents, that would be very cool data to animate.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coastal_ocean_dynami cs_applications_radar
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
That area is well east of me, it is just Hot and Dry here again, no decent rain in Austin since Sept 29th. I am just south of Austin, large raindrops falling here currently, looks like a developing storm just south of Austin.


Drying up here in SE TX, received 0.32" yesterday morning, not gonna help anything with that meager kind of rain. Everything is turning brown and it's not because of fall either it's because of drought, and lakes/ponds are down 2-3 ft.
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY AND TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST AND BECOME AN
EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM. IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
COAST...CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA COULD SEE A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
INTO THURSDAY. RAIN COULD ALSO MIX WITH THE SNOW ESPECIALLY AT THE
START OF THE STORM.

THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW MUCH
SNOW WILL FALL OR WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK PRIMARILY EAST OF I-81 AND ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. THE GREATEST SNOWFALLS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. IF
YOU ARE PLANNING TRAVEL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK OR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...YOU SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WINTER STORM WATCHES
OR ADVISORIES.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46658
Quoting LargoFl:
yes they have warnings out for you guys, new orleans area also..tomorrow it may be MY turn for the severe stuff, we'll see as that low and trough gets over my area
That area is well east of me, it is just Hot and Dry here again, no decent rain in Austin since Sept 29th. I am just south of Austin, large raindrops falling here currently, looks like a developing storm just south of Austin.
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..........just look what sandy did up in NJ..even created an inlet like we have here at johns pass..also created by a hurricane years ago
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46658
Last question of the day from me,
How does a set of radars measure currents that the hurricane is scrambling? Are these air currents and not water currents? If they are water currents, that would be very cool data to animate.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Owwwwwwww.


Assisted setting up some of the monitors while in Americorp out of the Forsythe Refuge. This could be just the start of a very rough season for the Jersey Shore. With Sandy, many seawalls were breached and will not be repaired for some time. Even a 'moderate' northeaster might do almost as much damage as the previous hurricane in coastal areas :P. A quote from my Physical Geology Prof. M. Hozik from the first day of class "If you take one thing away from this course remember this - never buy a house on a flood-plain. It's not if, just when." Kudos..!
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Almost 90 here with high humidity at Noon, I would not be surprised if Severe Storms develop in East and Southeast Texas into La.
yes they have warnings out for you guys, new orleans area also..tomorrow it may be MY turn for the severe stuff, we'll see as that low and trough gets over my area
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46658
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Science 2 November 2012:
Vol. 338 no. 6107 pp. 589-590
DOI: 10.1126/science.338.6107.589

NEWS & ANALYSIS
SCIENCE AND THE LAW

Convictions Leave Italy's Civil Protection in Chaos
Edwin Cartlidge*

Following the convictions of six scientists and a government official for advice they gave ahead of the deadly earthquake in L'Aquila in 2009, the president and several members of the National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks have resigned. Now, as Italy is flooded with outside protests to the convictions, it is left without experts to advise it on natural hazards.





Man is slowly headed for it's own destruction, punish those who are knowing and you will reap your own destruction.

Now they are on their own
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46658
Quoting LargoFl:
Almost 90 here with high humidity at Noon, I would not be surprised if Severe Storms develop in East and Southeast Texas into La.
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Quoting oracle28:
Question, can someone explain to me why non-union employees from power companies are not allowed to assist in the Sandy recovery?
..most likely involves union contracts with that area..and i thought that article was debunked as false
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46658
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Science 2 November 2012:
Vol. 338 no. 6107 pp. 589-590
DOI: 10.1126/science.338.6107.589

NEWS & ANALYSIS
SCIENCE AND THE LAW

Convictions Leave Italy's Civil Protection in Chaos
Edwin Cartlidge*

Following the convictions of six scientists and a government official for advice they gave ahead of the deadly earthquake in L'Aquila in 2009, the president and several members of the National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks have resigned. Now, as Italy is flooded with outside protests to the convictions, it is left without experts to advise it on natural hazards.





oh oh....oops
so sad... but I can't do anything about it
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Does using my breath as a rear flank downdraft over a boiling pot of water and noodles at the proper angle in order to create a tornado simulation make me a complete nerd? I know it sounds crazy, but try it for yourselves. It's most ideal to have noodles boiling in the water as its easier to see the water vapor that way.

Anyways though, of you blow at a proper angle continuously you can create a nice looking tornado simulation over your boiling pot, I was just doing so while boiling noodles for making macaroni and cheese!


Yes, yes it does. What is the correct angle or do you just adjust till it works?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Science 2 November 2012:
Vol. 338 no. 6107 pp. 589-590
DOI: 10.1126/science.338.6107.589

NEWS & ANALYSIS
SCIENCE AND THE LAW

Convictions Leave Italy's Civil Protection in Chaos
Edwin Cartlidge*

Following the convictions of six scientists and a government official for advice they gave ahead of the deadly earthquake in L'Aquila in 2009, the president and several members of the National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks have resigned. Now, as Italy is flooded with outside protests to the convictions, it is left without experts to advise it on natural hazards.



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Quoting LargoFl:
.........................Check This Lobster out..caught off the coast of Mass..this coloration happens once in 50 million lobsters wow


...election poll lobster...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:
Does using my breath as a rear flank downdraft over a boiling pot of water and noodles at the proper angle in order to create a tornado simulation make me a complete nerd? I know it sounds crazy, but try it for yourselves. It's most ideal to have noodles boiling in the water as its easier to see the water vapor that way.

Anyways though, of you blow at a proper angle continuously you can create a nice looking tornado simulation over your boiling pot, I was just doing so while boiling noodles for making macaroni and cheese!
my new best friend
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3641
Quoting oracle28:
Question, can someone explain to me why non-union employees from power companies are not allowed to assist in the Sandy recovery?
because big government is a fail.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3641
Quoting sunlinepr:
There's the piece of energy that will become the nor'easter coming down out of Canada on the backside of the trough!
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3641
Question, can someone explain to me why non-union employees from power companies are not allowed to assist in the Sandy recovery?
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Sandy Knocks Out Big Chunk of U.S. Research Radar Network

by David Malakoff on 2 November 2012, 1:37 PM

Calm before the storm. This high-frequency radar instrument is part of a 28-site network along the U.S. Atlantic coast that was hit hard by Sandy.
Credit: Rutgers University/Institute of Marine and Coastal Studies
U.S. coastal scientists are reporting that superstorm Sandy knocked out more than one-half of a high-frequency radar network that measures shifting Atlantic Ocean currents just offshore.

The 28-site radar network stretches 1200 kilometers from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, to Cape Cod, Massachusetts. But only 11 sites were still transmitting data after the storm made landfall on Monday night, according to physical oceanographer Scott Glenn of the Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey. The network, run by a coalition of universities and U.S. government agencies, began operating in the late 1990s and is now part of one of the most comprehensive coastal monitoring systems in the world.

It's not clear how many of the 17 silent sites were destroyed by high winds and floodwaters, Glenn says, and how many stopped communicating but continued to collect data. But he's prepared for the worst: "We've seen some pictures of where our radar sites should be, and there is nothing but sand."

However, there's also a silver lining. Glenn says the radars did "great work" before succumbing, providing an unprecedented look at how Sandy scrambled offshore currents as it blasted ashore. Such information should be useful for improving computer models used to forecast storm impacts in coastal areas.


Owwwwwwww.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Interesting...getting closer but trending further north...


You can see the cyclonic spin and negatively-tilted shortwave on satellite! Incredible.
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Quoting LargoFl:
.........................Check This Lobster out..caught off the coast of Mass..this coloration happens once in 50 million lobsters wow



Gee ... seems like just yesterday. How do we know this?
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Sandy Knocks Out Big Chunk of U.S. Research Radar Network

by David Malakoff on 2 November 2012, 1:37 PM

Calm before the storm. This high-frequency radar instrument is part of a 28-site network along the U.S. Atlantic coast that was hit hard by Sandy.
Credit: Rutgers University/Institute of Marine and Coastal Studies
U.S. coastal scientists are reporting that superstorm Sandy knocked out more than one-half of a high-frequency radar network that measures shifting Atlantic Ocean currents just offshore.

The 28-site radar network stretches 1200 kilometers from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, to Cape Cod, Massachusetts. But only 11 sites were still transmitting data after the storm made landfall on Monday night, according to physical oceanographer Scott Glenn of the Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey. The network, run by a coalition of universities and U.S. government agencies, began operating in the late 1990s and is now part of one of the most comprehensive coastal monitoring systems in the world.

It's not clear how many of the 17 silent sites were destroyed by high winds and floodwaters, Glenn says, and how many stopped communicating but continued to collect data. But he's prepared for the worst: "We've seen some pictures of where our radar sites should be, and there is nothing but sand."

However, there's also a silver lining. Glenn says the radars did "great work" before succumbing, providing an unprecedented look at how Sandy scrambled offshore currents as it blasted ashore. Such information should be useful for improving computer models used to forecast storm impacts in coastal areas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does using my breath as a rear flank downdraft over a boiling pot of water and noodles at the proper angle in order to create a tornado simulation make me a complete nerd? I know it sounds crazy, but try it for yourselves. It's most ideal to have noodles boiling in the water as its easier to see the water vapor that way.

Anyways though, of you blow at a proper angle continuously you can create a nice looking tornado simulation over your boiling pot, I was just doing so while boiling noodles for making macaroni and cheese!
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8720

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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