Nor'easter coming Wednesday and Thursday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on November 05, 2012

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An early-season Nor'easter will form off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains of 1 - 2" over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada, and intensify into a medium-strength Nor'easter with a central pressure near 984 mb by Wednesday evening. While the exact track of the storm still has considerable uncertainty, the models are pretty unified on the timing and strength of this storm. A 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 - 45 mph will likely affect portions of the coast from Maryland to Massachusetts. A more westerly track, as currently predicted by our top model, the European ECMWF model, would likely result in the storm's strongest winds affecting the New Jersey coast. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet would likely hit the New Jersey coast, and a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet would likely impact the western end of Long Island Sound. These surges would be accompanied by high, battering waves, capable of causing moderate to locally severe erosion along the coastal areas pounded by Hurricane Sandy last week. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between when the new moon and full moon occur. A more easterly track for the storm, as predicted by the GFS model, would put the Nor'easter's strongest winds along eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, resulting in lower storm surges for New Jersey and New York City. Accompanying the storm will be a swath of 2 - 3" of rain, with the heaviest rains falling over Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit its intensity and snowfall amounts. Snow is not expected in coastal area, but the Nor'easter has the potential to bring more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of New England.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for Wednesday evening, November 7, 2012, from the ECMWF model (left) and GFS model (right). The ECMWF model was run using data from 00Z (7 pm EST) Sunday night, and the GFS model was run using data beginning at 06Z (1 am EST) on Monday. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to extend from coastal Virginia to Massachusetts.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Atlantic City, NJ for Wednesday's Nor'easter, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.3', occurring just after midnight local time on Wednesday night. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 am Thursday morning, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.4' around 1 am Thursday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 5.81' storm surge to Atlantic City, with the highest storm tide reaching 8.9' above MLLW.

Jeff Masters

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I think something is trying to lurk here in the deep south soon as for winter weather. I really hope that we can see a good snow this year, heck i'll take ice also.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Sorry, no link.
Ah, alright
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220. wxmod
Jets changing the weather of the whole planet. MODIS today

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1758

A story in photos:

http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2012/11/hurric ane-sandy-one-week-after-landfall/100399/
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6035
218. wxmod
Filthy air created by filthy shipping, out in the Pacific, will move onshore. Imagine how many tons of asphalt tar a cargo ship has to burn to move their 30 foot diameter propellers. MODIS today

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1758
217. wxmod
Shipping filth, off the west coast in stagnant air, moving onshore. MODIS today

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1758
Quoting TomTaylor:
cool vid, thanks nrt

Also had a question, do you have a link to the presentation where these slide images came which you posted last week?





Sorry, no link.
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215. wxmod
Stratospheric filth (created by jets) off the west coast, moving onshore. MODIS satellite photo

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
cool vid, thanks nrt

Also had a question, do you have a link to the presentation where these slide images came which you posted last week?



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***Roosters were also ok to eat, because you only need one to keep the hens happily laying eggs, but they, too, are tough.***

Just a thought- you don't need a rooster to keep the hens laying. They will do that all on their own with no help from the man :)

What's the snow totals for eastern WV in the storm? Anyone know?
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180 islander101010: Travels throughout remote areas of Latin America, you can actually trade chicken for lobster. In fact, chicken is the more preferred. Why? Not sure but most of it ends up in tourist stomachs.

It ain't that different from the US of a few decades ago.
Long ago, lobsters were so plentiful that Native Americans used them to fertilize their fields and to bait their hooks for fishing. In colonial times, lobsters were considered poverty food. They were harvested from tidal pools and served to children, to prisoners, and to indentured servants, who exchanged their passage to America for seven years of service to their sponsors. In Massachusetts, some of the servants finally rebelled. They had it put into their contracts that they would not be forced to eat lobster more than three times a week.
Back in the presidential election of 1928, candidate Herbert Hoover promised "a chicken in every pot for Sunday dinner"...Back then, chicken was more expensive than pork or beef. Chickens produced eggs. Once you eat the chicken, you lose the eggs. ...At the time, the average worker made about $17 per week...
Only rich people could afford to slaughter a young, tender chicken. Most people waited for the chicken to get old enough to stop laying eggs and then cooked the tough old bird. Roosters were also ok to eat, because you only need one to keep the hens happily laying eggs, but they, too, are tough.
And it ain't all that different from more recent years, eg:
Until the early'70s, what is now sold as cod was considered a trash subspecies tossed back into the ocean as unwanted bycatch.
Until the late'80's or early'90s, salmon eggs were used almost exclusively as bait. Now, it's caviar.
Until the 2000s, glass eel (post-larval, pre-juvenile eel) was plentiful "po' folks food" in France. Due to ever-increasing demand by the Asian market, it's now a hard-to-find and expensive delicacy.
There are many many other examples. Most free-divers useta be able to harvest abalone off the California coast (not that many wanted to). Now only the best of the best and scuba-divers can dive deep enough to reach them. Etc.
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Checking in after a hard day of work..

Anyone see the 12z CMC..





Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15299
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

If ECMWF misses on this Nor'easter, it has much bigger mess for next Monday over Plains. Major mess. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/265575115943706 624/photo/1
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KOTG / GRO - Thanks for answering my question.

I bet the people of the Northeast are even happier than I am it is a 'No.'
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59 sRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Whatever falls either liquid or snow/slop will be heavy -- with temps in the 30s, but low is nudged east, less wind. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/265573201227173 889/photo/1/large
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Quoting WatchingThisOne:


I fear that the master of understatement may be at it again.

Looking forward to that 00Z Euro run.

WTO

edit: make that master of hints


I didn't realize anyone noticed. The 00Z Euro is very interesting.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26143
Quoting Dakster:
Gro - Could this be'Sandy:Reloaded'?


No.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26143
Quoting Grothar:
I think this will be a little worse than they originally thought.



Looks you're right, Gro, unfortunately. Quote from the above linked article:

"As two waves in the atmosphere merge off the Mid-Atlantic coast, one from the north and one from the south, a major Nor%u2019easter will rapidly develop Wednesday. High winds, rough seas, and coastal flooding are a threat from the Delmarva Peninsula into New England - many of the same areas devastated by Superstorm Sandy."
Read more! By Jason Samenow

I'm really sorry for all those poor people already shivering in the cold after Sandy.


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Quoting presslord:
I notice many of you are differentiating between North and South Carolina...you are to be commended...Jeff Masters sets a good example in the first two lines if his entry...


HPC is still a thorn in your side....


A STORM ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE
EASTERN FLORIDA COAST AND BEGIN TO DEEPEN. THE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL
NORTHWARD ... PARALLELING THE EAST COAST NORTHWARD TO OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STORM WILL PRODUCE
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL GULF COAST THAT
WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST ... THEN NORTHWARD ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION
... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ... SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES
... WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST EASTWARD TO FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
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Quoting Dakster:


Yes, of course.

I meant more a storm of similar strength and damage - not name...


lowest dipicted pressure i can find is 973mb in 72 hrs


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Quoting presslord:
I notice many of you are differentiating between North and South Carolina...you are to be commended...


You taught us well :)
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I notice many of you are differentiating between North and South Carolina...you are to be commended...Jeff Masters sets a good example in the first two lines if his entry...
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Quoting Grothar:
I think this will be a little worse than they originally thought.



I fear that the master of understatement may be at it again.

Looking forward to that 00Z Euro run.

WTO

edit: make that master of hints
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there will never be another storm named sandy


Yes, of course.

I meant more a storm of similar strength and damage - not name...

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Capital weather gang: Model backs off Nor%u2019easter snow potential for Washington, D.C.
By Wes Junker

Discussing the models on the Nor'easter in the WP

Edit: And there is already an update:
Storm, flood and high wind watches issued ahead of Nor%u2019easter in Sandy-stricken areas
By Jason Samenow
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Quoting Dakster:
Gro - Could this be'Sandy:Reloaded'?
there will never be another storm named sandy
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Gro - Could this be'Sandy:Reloaded'?
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Quoting Grothar:
I think this will be a little worse than they originally thought.



Why? Is it because JFV is back?
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I think this will be a little worse than they originally thought.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26143
For the first time, in a long time, all of the oceans in the world are tropical cyclone free.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
lol, on Levi's tropical tidbit facebook page, we have JFV and Portlight man, and some others all speaking their minds


JFV?? That takes me back.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26143
As impressive at that disturbance in the NW corner of the US/Canadian border looks at the moment on the satt loops (with all the reds), there is very little happening on the ground as of yet as the radar loops are not showing much........Still an upper level feature for the moment.
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NYC forecast discussion for Wednesday/Wednesday night storm in the New York City Area...

For the Snow lovers...

MODELS BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLN FOR THE STORM. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE/GGEM ARE ALL SIMILAR WITH THE DEVELOPMENTAL STAGES OF THE STORM TIL 00Z THU. SOLNS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFT THE MATURATION OF THE SYSTEM.

THE CONSENSUS IS THAT A MID-UPR 980S LOW WILL DEVELOP ABOUT 150-160 MILES ESE OF CAPE MAY NJ BY 00Z THU. WITH A 1030 OR SO HIGH OVER LABRADOR...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS THEY ADJUST TO THE PRES DURING THE DAY. THESE POWERFUL WINDS WILL LAST THRU THE EVE. THE CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH IN THE CORE OF THESE WINDS. AFT THE DEEPENING PHASE OF THE STORM WED NGT...THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK NEWD BUT WILL REMAIN AN OCCLUDED WIND MACHINE...PRODUCING GUSTS IN THE 40-55 MPH RANGE THRU THU. EXACT PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND DEPTH OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE ACTUAL MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS.

DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE NWRN QUAD OF THE STORM WILL PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE COLDEST SOLN AND IS TRENDING COLDER. THE PRIME CANDIDATE FOR SIG ACCUMS WOULD BE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NJ AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.
THE FCST HAS BEEN TRENDED COOLER. A MIX HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO PORTIONS OF THE CITY AND COASTS...WITH NO ACCUMS...AND LIGHT ACCUMS HAVE BEEN INDICATED ACROSS THE HIGHER INTERIOR SPOTS.

BASED ON HOW THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE...AN EWD TREND IN THE TRACK WOULD RESULT IN MORE SNOW AND LESS WIND.

AS THE STORM DRIFTS PAST AND AWAY THU-THU NGT...PERIODS OF LIGHTER PCPN CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED MDT BANDS IN THIS ACTIVITY...BUT WIDESPREAD MDT-HVY PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. AS MENTIONED ABV...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY AND
DIMINISH THU NGT.

AS ALWAYS...THIS STORM IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY SO CHANGES/UPDATES
CAN BE EXPECTED.

A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR WED-WED NGT.

NO WINTER WEATHER WATCHES ATTM. A SNOW TOTAL GRAPHIC HAS BEEN
POSTED.
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Quoting WunderGirl12:


Aztec -

It is the Nor'easter to be.

WunderGirl12


The main piece of energy, IMO, is currently over southern MO, northern AR.

Link
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Quoting ILwthrfan:


There are two disturbances right now in the middle of the country. One at the US/Canada border and the other is diving down into eastern Texas and Louisiana. These two systems are expected to both intensify some and then potentially phases off the North Carolina shore sometime Wednesday.

What your seeing right now off the coast of South Carolina is a just a very small shortwave...



Digging, digging ...
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Quoting AztecCe:
there is a spin to some clouds off of south carolina. Is this the nor'easter to be?


There are two disturbances right now in the middle of the country. One at the US/Canada border and the other is diving down into eastern Texas and Arkansas. These two systems are expected to both intensify some and then potentially phases off the North Carolina shore sometime Wednesday.

What your seeing right now off the coast of South Carolina is a just a very small shortwave...
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islander10101, maybe because you have to raise chickens, but only have to catch lobster. my relatives in caribbean mexico eat it all the time, and they go for chicken because it's more rare.
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travels throughout remote areas of latin america you can actually trade chicken for lobster in fact chicken is the more preferred. why? not sure but most of it ends up in tourist stomachs.
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Jedkins01: Does using my breath as a rear flank downdraft over a boiling pot of water and noodles at the proper angle in order to create a tornado simulation make me a complete nerd?

Nope, to be nerdish, ya hafta kiss the pot to create a small simulation of a tornado's world of hurt.
To be a complete nerd, your beard hasta be set alight by the burner while you're kissing the pot.
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121 biff4ugo: I'm thinking the 2.0 quake could be an artifact of all the tree and damaged power pole removal in the region of the sensor. Is that a possibility?

The pressure changes on the Earth's crust would be miniscule compared to the changes induced by Sandy's air-pressure and storm surge.
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Quoting Waltanater:
Does it include the debris it is flinging around!? LOL


Probably Not. However, it would be much heavier with the debris. LOL

WunderGirl12
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Quoting LargoFl:
..most likely involves union contracts with that area..and i thought that article was debunked as false


http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/non-union- ala-utility-crews-returns-home-before-getting-chan ce-to-help-restore-power-in-nj/2012/11/02/e9f4ccea -252e-11e2-92f8-7f9c4daf276a_story.html

Sad, very sad. Even if it's a misunderstanding, it's very sad.

There are people on vents and other electrical medical equipment at home, and the power companies are worried about the "proper forms".

This is what society has become, I suppose.
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Quoting AztecCe:
there is a spin to some clouds off of south carolina. Is this the nor'easter to be?


Aztec -

It is the Nor'easter to be.

WunderGirl12
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
HURRICANE FACTS...


Does anyone here know what the weight of an average size hurricane could be???

About..... 1,800,000,000 POUNDS!
Does it include the debris it is flinging around!? LOL
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16trillion divided by 180billion is ~89
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.