Nor'easter coming Wednesday and Thursday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on November 05, 2012

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An early-season Nor'easter will form off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains of 1 - 2" over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada, and intensify into a medium-strength Nor'easter with a central pressure near 984 mb by Wednesday evening. While the exact track of the storm still has considerable uncertainty, the models are pretty unified on the timing and strength of this storm. A 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 - 45 mph will likely affect portions of the coast from Maryland to Massachusetts. A more westerly track, as currently predicted by our top model, the European ECMWF model, would likely result in the storm's strongest winds affecting the New Jersey coast. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet would likely hit the New Jersey coast, and a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet would likely impact the western end of Long Island Sound. These surges would be accompanied by high, battering waves, capable of causing moderate to locally severe erosion along the coastal areas pounded by Hurricane Sandy last week. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between when the new moon and full moon occur. A more easterly track for the storm, as predicted by the GFS model, would put the Nor'easter's strongest winds along eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, resulting in lower storm surges for New Jersey and New York City. Accompanying the storm will be a swath of 2 - 3" of rain, with the heaviest rains falling over Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit its intensity and snowfall amounts. Snow is not expected in coastal area, but the Nor'easter has the potential to bring more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of New England.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for Wednesday evening, November 7, 2012, from the ECMWF model (left) and GFS model (right). The ECMWF model was run using data from 00Z (7 pm EST) Sunday night, and the GFS model was run using data beginning at 06Z (1 am EST) on Monday. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to extend from coastal Virginia to Massachusetts.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Atlantic City, NJ for Wednesday's Nor'easter, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.3', occurring just after midnight local time on Wednesday night. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 am Thursday morning, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.4' around 1 am Thursday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 5.81' storm surge to Atlantic City, with the highest storm tide reaching 8.9' above MLLW.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
100 knots of windshear.



Strong storms moving into the Gulf:

Never seen windshear that strong.
Quoting wxchaser97:
So the GFS is a little farther east this run, 78hrs. Now time to wait and see if we get tropical development.
I am waiting to see if we get Valerie on this run.
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Hi everybody,

I was wondering how bad the storm surge potential is on the south shore of Long Island for this upcoming nor'easter if it goes more west? I know it all depends on the track.

I am from Long Beach and I must say that our town is not ready for another storm. We still don't have power, so the wind really isn't an issue in terms of losing power. We aren't expected to have power for roughly a month. Still no clean water or sewage. I just want to get a more clear grip on the situation so I can relay the information since most people don't have access to internet. I see that the waves are going to be 11ft @ 12 seconds. That's not good if its going to be accompanied by a storm surge of any magnitude, considering our dunes are gone, our beach is now flat, and the boardwalk is missing in numerous spots.

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GFS at 96 hours:

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Quoting RetiredChiefP:


"When 900 years old you reach, look as good, you will not, hmmmm?". Yoda.


On face good wrinkle cream to put.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
So the GFS is a little farther east this run, 78hrs. Now time to wait and see if we get tropical development.
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00Z GFS 72 hours:

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GFS at 54 hours:

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Quoting Grothar:


I just want to make it to 950.


"When 900 years old you reach, look as good, you will not, hmmmm?". Yoda.
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00Z GFS 48 hours:

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GFS at 36hrs, east it goes.
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Quoting AGWcreationists:
My vast experience is six years of dealing with conspiracy mongers on another website. You all have the same pattern. Namely, your lack of ability to connect observable phenomenon to any actual viable theory. All the while loudly bleating that such inability is somehow proof of what you are claiming as some kind of evidence that the government or "shills" such as myself are conclusive proof that you are correct.
And now, to reduce the noise on this fine site, I will say no more in this exchange. I have had my say, if contrail conspiracy mongering is allowed here, so be it.
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WunderBlogs - Dr. Masters' Blog Content Rules
Due to the high amount of traffic that Dr. Masters' blog receives, a special community standard has been established for the blog. The following list comprises the "Rules of the Road" for Dr. Masters' blog.

...

3. No monomania.


monomania (mn-mn-, -mny)
n.
1. Pathological obsession with one idea or subject.
2. Intent concentration on or exaggerated enthusiasm for a single subject or idea.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6048
100 knots of windshear.



Strong storms moving into the Gulf:

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WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
_____________________________

West US major for Montana.
Moderate snow in the Sierra Nevada

I'll do a graphic for the US East coast storm tomorrow morning...
by the way...a high wind watch is if effect for all NJ/NYC,LI/CT coastal areas
calling for wing gusts up to 70 MPH!.. Sandy was at 80 MPH!..very close


click on the pic for a bigger image...4x as big so you can see all details...don't be afraid

hope you enjoy it...as I do but it takes me more than an hour to do... :)
who knows when we have Athena???
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Quoting wxmod:


Please, by all means, lay out the truth for me. I need your vast experience. Thanks so much.
Oh, by the way, that was a satellite PHOTO. Tell NASA to take the satellites out of the sky if you can't handle it. I just posted satellite photos. Why on Earth is that "Uninformed noise."???
My vast experience is six years of dealing with conspiracy mongers on another website. You all have the same pattern. Namely, your lack of ability to connect observable phenomenon to any actual viable theory. All the while loudly bleating that such inability is somehow proof of what you are claiming as some kind of evidence that the government or "shills" such as myself are conclusive proof that you are correct.
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NOAA seems confident of lots of areas getting 60 mph gusts. That usually equals power loss from trees. ugh. I'm in the Hartford Ct area.
ps, long clouds are for heat retention. A good thing considering slowing/changing ocean currents.
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303. MTWX
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


hopefully but after this week warmer weather is the trent for at least 14 day according to the outlook and models, but then its only nov 5th, i hope that changes after that...i would love some snow!


I wouldn't mine seeing some snow again either! One of the things I really miss from Montana... I've only seen it stick here in Mississippi 4 times in the 9 years I've been here...
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302. wxmod
Quoting AGWcreationists:
I'm sorry, I have dealt with the conspiracy zoids elsewhere. You are noise. Uninformed noise.


Please, by all means, lay out the truth for me. I need your vast experience. Thanks so much.
Oh, by the way, that was a satellite PHOTO. Tell NASA to take the satellites out of the sky if you can't handle it. I just posted satellite photos. Why on Earth is that "Uninformed noise."???
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1763
Quoting wxchaser97:

Personally, I wouldn't mind a big winter this year to make up from last year. It hurt not making any money from snow removal.
My cousin who does snow removal would agree with you.As someone who take transit to work and then walks two miles to get to my job, I actually LIKED last winter. Your mileage will vary.
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Impressive Season and we might not be done just yet.



Probably been posted already, but ACE is up to 121. I also think Gordon, Kirk, and Sandy will be bumped up to major hurricane status in the postseason analysis.
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Quoting MTWX:
Nor'easter on the East Coast and a large winter storm in the Rockies into the weekend...

Starting to think this winter is going to compensate for our lack of winter last year...

Personally, I wouldn't mind a big winter this year to make up from last year. It hurt not making any money from snow removal.
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Quoting MTWX:
Nor'easter on the East Coast and a large winter storm in the Rockies into the weekend...

Starting to think this winter is going to compensate for our lack of winter last year...


hopefully but after this week warmer weather is the trent for at least 14 day according to the outlook and models, but then its only nov 5th, i hope that changes after that...i would love some snow!
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
For Christs sake people can we just learn to get along? If you don't like what someone posts then just ignore them. It's like Kindergarten in here sometimes.
I come here to read educated discourse. Contrails are idiocy.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
When times get tough, just use the ignore and "-" and "!" buttons.

Anyway, DC and surrounding areas look to get a couple inches of snow. Areas to the NNE could get even higher amounts. It should be pretty interesting snow wise for some.


I know... So excited!
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295. MTWX
Nor'easter on the East Coast and a large winter storm in the Rockies into the weekend...

Starting to think this winter is going to compensate for our lack of winter last year...
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The 00Z GFS is getting ready to begin. I am hoping for further east and Valerie in the open Atlantic.
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Great looks like some rain and thunderstorms moving into the area in the morning just in time for when I go vote.

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ENERGY November 5, 2012, 6:11 PM

How Natural Gas Kept Some Spots Bright and Warm as Sandy Blasted New York City
By ANDREW C. REVKIN

...there's a reliable energy grid in much of the region - composed of natural gas lines - that parallels the one using wires to carry electricity. This separate energy system allows businesses to produce electricity themselves in small, highly efficient gas-powered generators at their facilities (and cut urban air pollution and greenhouse gases at the same time). This gas grid helped at least two large energy users - New York University and Co-op City (a vast high-rise housing complex in the Bronx) - stay warm and bright because, to a significant extent, they can generate their own electricity and heat.

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/05/how- natural-gas-kept-some-spots-bright-and-warm-as-san dy-blasted-new-york/
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6048
Quoting wxmod:


There is absolutly no 'spam' in the satellite photos I post. What seems to be the problem with posting satellite photos of man made weather that may be altering storms around the world, including Sandy and the noreaster this blog is about today. There's absolutely no "conspiracy idiot spam". Just good ol Houston conservative style satellite photos.
I'm sorry, I have dealt with the conspiracy zoids elsewhere. You are noise. Uninformed noise.
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Quoting VaStormGuy:


We don't have moderators, that's the problem... And I agree with you fully.
Uh, you do have moderators, I just had a comment removed. I really have to wonder about moderators who allow contrail spam while removing a very mild slam against a conspiracy spammer. I would hope the moderators would self-examine their policies here.
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For Christs sake people can we just learn to get along? If you don't like what someone posts then just ignore them. It's like Kindergarten in here sometimes.
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When times get tough, just use the ignore and "-" and "!" buttons.

Anyway, DC and surrounding areas look to get a couple inches of snow. Areas to the NNE could get even higher amounts. It should be pretty interesting snow wise for some.
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*****LIVE NOW*****



Talking about Hurricane Sandy.
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286. wxmod
Quoting AGWcreationists:
Seriously, moderators, I am a moderator at another site. Why do you let this clown spam this contrail idiocy when a major storm is forecast over the next few days and those of us who frequent this site for educated forecasting analysis from the commentors have no interest in seeing this conspiracy idiot spam?


There is absolutly no 'spam' in the satellite photos I post. What seems to be the problem with posting satellite photos of man made weather that may be altering storms around the world, including Sandy and the noreaster this blog is about today. There's absolutely no "conspiracy idiot spam". Just good ol Houston conservative style satellite photos.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1763
Quoting longislander102:
***crying** at the thought of another storm here on Long Island, New York.

I second that emotion.
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Quoting VaStormGuy:
After using the ignore feature, the blog became suddenly free of wacky conspiracies!




in tell they Quote them
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Quoting wxmod:
So when do you suppose the United Nations will call so called contrails and ship trails a geoengineering project? What, does the weather community have to make a press release, or is the satellite photo obvious enough.

Will you quit spamming us?
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After using the ignore feature, the blog became suddenly free of wacky conspiracies!
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Quoting AGWcreationists:
Seriously, moderators, I am a moderator at another site. Why do you let this clown spam this contrail idiocy when a major storm is forecast over the next few days and those of us who frequent this site for educated forecasting analysis from the commentors have no interest in seeing this conspiracy idiot spam?


We don't have moderators, that's the problem... And I agree with you fully.
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Link

sorry here is the link
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Link

link is 48 hours snowfall chances, chances are up around the D.C. metro area, and north of New York City..its only for 1-2 inches
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Quoting wxmod:
So when do you suppose the United Nations will call so called contrails and ship trails a geoengineering project? What, does the weather community have to make a press release, or is the satellite photo obvious enough.

Seriously, moderators, I am a moderator at another site. Why do you let this clown spam this contrail idiocy when a major storm is forecast over the next few days and those of us who frequent this site for educated forecasting analysis from the commentors have no interest in seeing this conspiracy idiot spam?
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Quoting wxmod:
So when do you suppose the United Nations will call so called contrails and ship trails a geoengineering project? What, does the weather community have to make a press release, or is the satellite photo obvious enough.



We just had one major weather disaster. We could be facing another. Could you PLEASE take your contrail conspiracy crap elsewhere?
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Quoting wxmod:
So when do you suppose the United Nations will call so called contrails and ship trails a geoengineering project? What, does the weather community have to make a press release, or is the satellite photo obvious enough.


I understand there's a Tinfoil Hat Convention coming up soon, co-located with a Star Trek shindig. Maybe that would be the time to announce such an amazing thing.
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Quoting HouGalv08:
Change of subject, somewhat. Need any ones thought/ideas on a problem that's got me stumped. I've gotten all the hurricane shutters designed and together for the next big blow here in Houston, except for the two front windows of the house. The windows are about 4 feet by 4 feet and surrounded by decorative brick flush with window edge that I cannot drill through. No "internal" edge where I could use a Plylox clip, as I will use for the other windows. How can I cover or protect these windows from projectiles or wind pressure? I think projectiles are the larger concern due to all the trees in the vicinity. Any and all ideas appreciated!

Masonry screws and a good drill. (18v)
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Quoting Katelynn:
Hey Everyone - been lurking in the background since Sandy. Wanted to thank everyone for their great reporting . . .
It's the Sandy before and after photos from abc.net.au - just scroll over each photo for the NOAA aftermath shots

Before and After Photos - Sandy - Google Maps/NOAA

If anyone on a coastline doesn't yet get-it, just share that link with them!





Those are Amazing shots, Katelynn. Thanks for the post!
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Link Climate Central Home Page
This site was in Doc's blog about a week ago.

LinkWV Loop Eastern US
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW PROGRESSING E-SE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS.
CURRENTLY A LINGERING SLOW-MOVING AND NEARLY STALLED COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION WESTWARD TO 27N90W. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AND DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SE CONUS.
WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE FORECAST N OF 26N BY LATE TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATES A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET LIES ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHICH IS RESULTING IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 27N82W TO 22N98W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AREA OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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