Nor'easter coming Wednesday and Thursday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on November 05, 2012

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An early-season Nor'easter will form off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains of 1 - 2" over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada, and intensify into a medium-strength Nor'easter with a central pressure near 984 mb by Wednesday evening. While the exact track of the storm still has considerable uncertainty, the models are pretty unified on the timing and strength of this storm. A 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 - 45 mph will likely affect portions of the coast from Maryland to Massachusetts. A more westerly track, as currently predicted by our top model, the European ECMWF model, would likely result in the storm's strongest winds affecting the New Jersey coast. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet would likely hit the New Jersey coast, and a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet would likely impact the western end of Long Island Sound. These surges would be accompanied by high, battering waves, capable of causing moderate to locally severe erosion along the coastal areas pounded by Hurricane Sandy last week. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between when the new moon and full moon occur. A more easterly track for the storm, as predicted by the GFS model, would put the Nor'easter's strongest winds along eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, resulting in lower storm surges for New Jersey and New York City. Accompanying the storm will be a swath of 2 - 3" of rain, with the heaviest rains falling over Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit its intensity and snowfall amounts. Snow is not expected in coastal area, but the Nor'easter has the potential to bring more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of New England.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for Wednesday evening, November 7, 2012, from the ECMWF model (left) and GFS model (right). The ECMWF model was run using data from 00Z (7 pm EST) Sunday night, and the GFS model was run using data beginning at 06Z (1 am EST) on Monday. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to extend from coastal Virginia to Massachusetts.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Atlantic City, NJ for Wednesday's Nor'easter, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.3', occurring just after midnight local time on Wednesday night. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 am Thursday morning, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.4' around 1 am Thursday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 5.81' storm surge to Atlantic City, with the highest storm tide reaching 8.9' above MLLW.

Jeff Masters

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Post 419, as Yogi said, "It ain't over till it's over"!
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Good morning everyone and happy election day. I see the GFS developed Valerie again in the E ATL. The CMC and NOGAPS also show a storm and the Euro has shown it before. Sorry I posted 3 images at once.
06z at 162hrs:


00Z CMC at 144hrs:


00Z NOGAPS at 144hrs:

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Quoting islander101010:
glad to hear the northeaster is forecast to be further offshore than before. those people can use a break


Really? Is it? Because it still looks like it's going to slam me here in old Cape Cod.
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Quoting tc1120:


Yea Long Beach is basically in the same state as Fire Island and Rockaway, except that we've been able to get relief efforts into our town and they are still having troulbe, especially fire island. Almost every house in Long Beach is badly damaged or gone. Most cars destroyed.
Good morning all. My heart bleeds for the victims of Sandy. I have been somewhat in that position and emphatize with your plight. God bless you all! Keep the faith, hope and especially your patience.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
Quoting Inyo:
The only chemicals emitted by planes that influence the weather are greenhouse gases.

Why are people so willing to get riled up about obviously irrational and fake conspiracy theories, while ignoring the real conspiracies that have been documented? (pressuring scientists to change results to hide evidence of global warming, etc)
Sort of mind-boggling, isn't it? Some will readily cling to the belief that a worldwide consortium of thousands of climate scientists is somehow stealthily working in long secret to falsify and manipulate data to falsely "prove" global warming for the sole purpose of gaining thousands of dollars in government research grants. Yet those same people just as readily dismiss even the possibility that entities currently making hundreds of billions of dollars in profit would try to maintain the fossil fuel-only paradigm through lies and deception.

Critical thinking skills are, sadly, lacking--as we'll no doubt see evidenced in state after state today...
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Quoting tc1120:


Yea Long Beach is basically in the same state as Fire Island and Rockaway, except that we've been able to get relief efforts into our town and they are still having troulbe, especially fire island. Almost every house in Long Beach is badly damaged or gone. Most cars destroyed.


What part of Long Beach was the worst damage?
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around here e cen fl. since there are so many oldtimers its best to do stuff around 1 to 2 pm they are napping then. getting alittle brown rain is welcomed
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
good morning largo. Are you hearing any boomers over there?
I was at my polling place when it started to rain, feels refreshing, and I bet the grass loves it.
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Hopefully most of the heavy rain will stay off NJ
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glad to hear the northeaster is forecast to be further offshore than before. those people can use a break
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Another line of thunderstorms over the gulf collapses as usual before hitting the coast, even with stronger dynamical support...

It's strange, after having so much rain for a long time, it's getting quite dry here, my lawn is completely brown. Then again, it is November, it has been quite cool and dry overall.


NOSTORMINFLORIDA's Tampa Shields.
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Low Temps in the NE will be near freezing on Thursday
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Quoting Grothar:


Don't know about Lido Beach. The Rockaways got hit badly as did Lindenhurst. Fire Island is breached in a number of places. Most of the beach is gone, up to the road. Most of the homes were destroyed or badly damaged.


Yea Long Beach is basically in the same state as Fire Island and Rockaway, except that we've been able to get relief efforts into our town and they are still having troulbe, especially fire island. Almost every house in Long Beach is badly damaged or gone. Most cars destroyed.
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Another line of thunderstorms over the gulf collapses as usual before hitting the coast, even with stronger dynamical support...

It's strange, after having so much rain for a long time, it's getting quite dry here, my lawn is completely brown. Then again, it is November, it has been quite cool and dry overall.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7434
I am thankful the NorEaster does not have 800 miles of strait line tropical storm force winds across the Atlantic before it reaches the previously affected folks from Sandy, this time.
I hope people are safe, repares are not compromised, and that there isn't a 3rd storm like Frances,Ivan, and Jeanne.

U.S. citizens vote'um if you got'um.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1569
Inyo, strictly speaking, that is not true.
Contrails nucleate clouds causing precipitation of ice crystals and rain. They change the reflective properties of clouds that alters the incoming solar radiation, heat budget, and rainfall patterns in areas. It is not the same as adding x more amount of gasoline exhaust on the ground. Jet exhaust is not just greenhouse gas to the climate. The location in the atmosphere is notably different.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1569
.....................good snow storm up north huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
.....................gee NY and the northeast..get prepared...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
26 on the back porch this morning with such a thick frost I thought we might have had "a dusting."

Voted a week ago in old Virginny. I was very glad to get it over with in this crazy election. If you haven't done it yet, go tell 'em "The people still get a say!"
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
good morning largo. Are you hearing any boomers over there?
oh yes was really booming out in the gulf a lil while ago..guess this is going to be going on for awhile..some real good rain coming down
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
Quoting LargoFl:
Storms coming in,finally getting some good rain......
good morning largo. Are you hearing any boomers over there?
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
voted.. you should too..

USA USA USA !!!
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Storms coming in,finally getting some good rain......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
394. Inyo
The only chemicals emitted by planes that influence the weather are greenhouse gases.

Why are people so willing to get riled up about obviously irrational and fake conspiracy theories, while ignoring the real conspiracies that have been documented? (pressuring scientists to change results to hide evidence of global warming, etc)
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Happy Election Day!...Off to Vote...Have a good day everyone!

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Quoting indianrivguy:
;

Mornin' folks!


link doesn't work for me...


Try this:

Link

Good read!
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Good morning. Could be a severe weather event this weekend:

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Nasty nor’easter set to hit NYC in 2 days - more flooding, power outages may be in store

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com#ixzz2BR9SJFOr
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
453 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

...DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ069>075-078> 081-176>179-
062200-
/O.CON.KOKX.HW.A.0004.121107T1100Z-121108T1100Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-
SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
453 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...LONG ISLAND AND NEW
YORK CITY.

* HAZARDS...DAMAGING WINDS.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES...AS WELL AS MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

...A STRONG COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OFF THE
VIRGINIA CAPES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD TO THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY.

DEZ002>004-NJZ012>014-020>027-062200-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.A.0002.121107T1600Z-121108T1300Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
338 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* LOCATION...COASTAL AREAS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND ALONG
DELAWARE BAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MODERATE FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WATER
LEVELS MAY NOT RECEDE MUCH BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH TIDES.

* AT SANDY HOOK... NEW JERSEY (SANDY HOOK BAY) HIGH TIDE OCCURS
AT 118 PM WEDNESDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.5 TO
8.0 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 212
AM THURSDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 8.0 FEET ABOVE
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT SEASIDE HEIGHTS... NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS
AT 1248 PM WEDNESDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL 7.0 TO 7.5
FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 142 AM
THURSDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5 FEET ABOVE
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT ATLANTIC CITY... NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS
AT 101 PM WEDNESDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5
FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 157 AM
THURSDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5 FEET ABOVE
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT CAPE MAY... NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 135
PM WEDNESDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 8.0 TO 8.5 FEET
ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 231 AM
THURSDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 8.0 FEET ABOVE
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT BREAKWATER HARBOR... DELAWARE (DELAWARE BAY) HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 221 PM WEDNESDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR
7.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 302
AM THURSDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.0 TO 7.5 FEET
ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT REHOBOTH BEACH... DELAWARE (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT
133 PM WEDNESDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5 FEET
ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 207 AM
THURSDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.0 TO 7.5 FEET
ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* HIGH TIDE ON THE BACK BAYS... ALONG DELAWARE BAY AND ALONG
RARITAN BAY OCCURS LATER THAN THE HIGH TIDE ON THE OCEANFRONT.

* SEAS...WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE ALONG THE COAST ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE. WAVE HEIGHTS ON
DELAWARE BAY SHOULD BE IN THE 2 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.

* IMPACTS...NUMEROUS ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD AND ADDITIONAL MINOR TO
MODERATE PROPERTY DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE. THE ELEVATED TIDES WILL
HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON RECOVERY EFFORTS. THE TIDES AND THE
WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH
EROSION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION
TO UPDATED FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. FOLLOW THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
7-day for the Tampa Bay area..cooler this week............
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GFS at 48 hours..................................
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Nam model at 42 hours......................
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Good Morning Folks!..hope I get some rain today........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38407
Quoting Guysgal:
"An age of rising seas and monster storms". Great NYT article on Brian Norcross. Link
;

Mornin' folks!


link doesn't work for me...
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"An age of rising seas and monster storms". Great NYT article on Brian Norcross. Link
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you'd think there'd be corroboration somewhere. i'm a conspiracy theorist from way back, and think this chemtrails thing is like the nigerian scam letters - they only want you if you're gullible enough to believe obvious mallarkey.
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Quoting plutorising:


the problem is that you offer no proof that they're man made.


Wouldn't people notice an abnormally large amount of jet patrols anyway?
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Quoting wxmod:


There is absolutly no 'spam' in the satellite photos I post. What seems to be the problem with posting satellite photos of man made weather that may be altering storms around the world, including Sandy and the noreaster this blog is about today. There's absolutely no "conspiracy idiot spam". Just good ol Houston conservative style satellite photos.


the problem is that you offer no proof that they're man made.
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Quoting RainyDaisy:


Another look at the pre-nor'easter cyclonics on my blog.
What is the point of all these lines?
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good morning, it's raining in the atlanta area, has been for hours, a soft drenching rain. lovely, we haven't gotten rain for awhile. good luck to everybody points north.
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Quoting HouGalv08:
Change of subject, somewhat. Need any ones thought/ideas on a problem that's got me stumped. I've gotten all the hurricane shutters designed and together for the next big blow here in Houston, except for the two front windows of the house.



i have some hard areas to protect and opted for Armor Screen. I have been very happy with it. it is worth a look.
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Quoting billburke:
Yow, is accuweather hysteria oriented? They are now saying possible peak gusts of 60-70 in a large muti state area. Including nyc, long island and new jersey areas hard hit last week.


You decide.


Wednesday
rain Rain. Windy. Near steady temperature in the lower 40s. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph...increasing to 60 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Wednesday Night
nt_snow Rain in the evening...then rain and snow after midnight. Little or no snow accumulation. Very windy with lows in the mid 30s. North winds 25 to 35 mph...diminishing to 20 to 25 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 65 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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