Nor'easter coming Wednesday and Thursday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on November 05, 2012

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An early-season Nor'easter will form off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains of 1 - 2" over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada, and intensify into a medium-strength Nor'easter with a central pressure near 984 mb by Wednesday evening. While the exact track of the storm still has considerable uncertainty, the models are pretty unified on the timing and strength of this storm. A 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 - 45 mph will likely affect portions of the coast from Maryland to Massachusetts. A more westerly track, as currently predicted by our top model, the European ECMWF model, would likely result in the storm's strongest winds affecting the New Jersey coast. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet would likely hit the New Jersey coast, and a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet would likely impact the western end of Long Island Sound. These surges would be accompanied by high, battering waves, capable of causing moderate to locally severe erosion along the coastal areas pounded by Hurricane Sandy last week. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between when the new moon and full moon occur. A more easterly track for the storm, as predicted by the GFS model, would put the Nor'easter's strongest winds along eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, resulting in lower storm surges for New Jersey and New York City. Accompanying the storm will be a swath of 2 - 3" of rain, with the heaviest rains falling over Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit its intensity and snowfall amounts. Snow is not expected in coastal area, but the Nor'easter has the potential to bring more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of New England.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for Wednesday evening, November 7, 2012, from the ECMWF model (left) and GFS model (right). The ECMWF model was run using data from 00Z (7 pm EST) Sunday night, and the GFS model was run using data beginning at 06Z (1 am EST) on Monday. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to extend from coastal Virginia to Massachusetts.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Atlantic City, NJ for Wednesday's Nor'easter, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.3', occurring just after midnight local time on Wednesday night. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 am Thursday morning, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.4' around 1 am Thursday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 5.81' storm surge to Atlantic City, with the highest storm tide reaching 8.9' above MLLW.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting jeffs713:

A magnitude 2.0 can barely be felt by anyone. Heck, a heavy train passing by generates more felt waves.


agreed.
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Quoting txjac:
Can someone answer a question for me? I'm not really proficent at reading the maps that are posted. When Sandy came through I didnt think that it would really impact Ohio beyond rain. As I posted before my brothers house was damaged and he wound up getting a broken leg while trying to secure some trees ...

So I have to ask ...what affects, if any, will this NE do in Ohio?

Thanks for any info


I would say you are gonna get some cold air from this one..JMO
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Quoting skook:

07:18 AM ET
Magnitude-2.0 quake shakes New Jersey

As if they haven't had enough headaches in New Jersey in the past week, this morning they can add earthquake to the list.

The magnitude-2.0 temblor struck at 1:19 a.m. and was centered two miles south-southeast of Ringwood, New Jersey, not far from the border with New York. The depth was 3.1 miles, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Link

A magnitude 2.0 can barely be felt by anyone. Heck, a heavy train passing by generates more felt waves.
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The 12z GFS yet again develops Valerie S of Bermuda and sends her NNE. We should monitor to see if trends continue and if other models begin to develop a storm. I think we still could see at least 1 more storm before the season ends. This is at 228hrs and she is at 1003mb.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Quoting ncstorm:
I dont like the fact that QPF rainfall amount has been trending west with the GFS run for my area..I know the focus is on the NE states but NC doesn't need any rain or wind either..


You are projected to get less than an inch of rain.. not talking a down pour here. North carolina barely got anything from sandy compared to the states north of it.
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Nor'easters always trend west. It's why we usually are predicted to get snow at first but then we get the snow pushed west and we get into the rain area. This happened multiple times last winter, and I see the east bias of the models continuing this winter.
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Can someone answer a question for me? I'm not really proficent at reading the maps that are posted. When Sandy came through I didnt think that it would really impact Ohio beyond rain. As I posted before my brothers house was damaged and he wound up getting a broken leg while trying to secure some trees ...

So I have to ask ...what affects, if any, will this NE do in Ohio?

Thanks for any info
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2538
I dont like the fact that QPF rainfall amount has been trending west with the GFS run for my area..I know the focus is on the NE states but NC doesn't need any rain or wind either..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15662
There also is a threat of severe weather in the deep south today. Large hail and damaging winds look to be the main threat with a chance of a tornado. Not much is happening right now but that should change latter in the day. Check your local NWS office for the latest info and warnings.

Discussion on today's threat.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
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Morning all. Another warm day in the 80s here and warm for much of the south in general. Shorts and tank tops while seeing Christmas commercials on TV. Strange I tell ya. Strange.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


nice LI/LIS map


I love how we were taught so long ago that Long Island was a "big fish" and the forks were the back fins. I mean, it really doesn't look that much like a fish.. but I guess as a kid it kinda did? And it stuck ;)

It's such an interesting area, I think. I've lived here my whole life. And where I live, it's the perfect suburban area. Very close to NYC, like 20 minutes away, and not far from getting into CT, NJ and upstate NY. And 5 miles from the beaches. Our beaches may not be crystal clear.. but they are very nice ;)
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Quoting will40:



further east

I don't see it being further east. The nor'easter is further west in track, it then stalls further west than the 06z, and finally they go on a very similar track afterward.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948


Lousiana:


Arkansas:


East Texas:
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39055
Quoting SyriboTigereyes:

I warned people every day, multiple times a day starting around the 23rd or 24th on Facebook, where I know everyone would see. Some people listened to me and actually thanked me! One girl I went to high school with read all my updates and used them to convince her parents to prepare, and they all were ready. But my sister didn't listen. Her words "Oh it's going to be nothing". Well, she was cold as hell there for 5 days with no power, no food or water to use, and three kids all under 4 years old.

I've been letting people know about this storm since last Wednesday when I first heard about it going on WU at my friends apartment to take a shower while our power was still out. I've been warning that it won't be a Sandy storm, but it will be gross out, and pretty freaking windy. And do we really need that while so many still are without power? While everything is already weakened and/or down from Sandy? I'm preparing for the worst, getting everything together again as if the power will go out for sure. You never know.

Hey, I am surprised our grocery delivery service is running. It's been running since the day after the storm! Amazing. Peapod is very convenient, especially for me being disabled. And I actually got a delivery for today, they are sold out for days and days already. Most people must be doing it because they have no gas of their own, and everyone needs to re-stock their fridge and freezer again. I'm not buying THAT much perishable stuff, because again, I am just going to assume our power will go out again, and that way I won't be surprised when it does ;)


nice LI/LIS map
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Guess sometimes you have to keep your knowledge and knowing of things to yourself, and let everyone around you figure it out themselves.

I warned people every day, multiple times a day starting around the 23rd or 24th on Facebook, where I know everyone would see. Some people listened to me and actually thanked me! One girl I went to high school with read all my updates and used them to convince her parents to prepare, and they all were ready. But my sister didn't listen. Her words "Oh it's going to be nothing". Well, she was cold as hell there for 5 days with no power, no food or water to use, and three kids all under 4 years old.

I've been letting people know about this storm since last Wednesday when I first heard about it going on WU at my friends apartment to take a shower while our power was still out. I've been warning that it won't be a Sandy storm, but it will be gross out, and pretty freaking windy. And do we really need that while so many still are without power? While everything is already weakened and/or down from Sandy? I'm preparing for the worst, getting everything together again as if the power will go out for sure. You never know.

Hey, I am surprised our grocery delivery service is running. It's been running since the day after the storm! Amazing. Peapod is very convenient, especially for me being disabled. And I actually got a delivery for today, they are sold out for days and days already. Most people must be doing it because they have no gas of their own, and everyone needs to re-stock their fridge and freezer again. I'm not buying THAT much perishable stuff, because again, I am just going to assume our power will go out again, and that way I won't be surprised when it does ;)
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Ooo, wow, another Nor'Easter. As we say here on Cape Cod, the previous storms blew the "th" away.

We've had so many of these storms we're used to it, and our landscape / trees have been purged so many times, I'm sorry to say it all seems old hat. I'll be driving my daughter to school in torrential wind swept downpours, it will be bone-chilling damp cold, and it will suck. Any newer trees / branches that didn't get taken down with Sandy will come down with this one. Same drill, different storm.

Instead of them only hitting us it seems we're welcoming the rest of the East Coast to typical New England, especially Cape Cod, weather. It's only nice here 8 weeks of the year, which helps keep the population down. It seems our little micro-climate has expanded for a while. If this pattern stays this way we could definitely get slammed this winter with snow. Didn't get any last year, but there's nothing like a Winter Nor'easter to freeze your butt off.
Member Since: August 15, 2004 Posts: 23 Comments: 392
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Only about 25 miles... not much differences. But I'm on tiny laptop at school so I can't really tell.


It makes a difference on snow for me.
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Quoting VaStormGuy:


06Z


12Z


It's further west.
Only about 25 miles... not much differences. But I'm on tiny laptop at school so I can't really tell.
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Quoting indianrivguy:


I was referring to his avatar :)


lol :)
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Guess sometimes you have to keep your knowledge and knowing of things to yourself, and let everyone around you figure it out themselves.


Well, you can still offer advice, and if people don't like it, that's their thing. At least then you are ethically in the clear. I generally don't offer advice, just information, like: "there will be very high winds tomorrow" or "tides will probably push 3 blocks inland" ...then people can make their own connections or not.
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Quoting Progster:


Models always run on GMT..(UTC).


I was referring to his avatar :)
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further east
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Quoting indianrivguy:


I have to ask bro.. did you lose a bet or something?


Models always run on GMT..(UTC).
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Quoting will40:



it is not further west than 06 run


06Z


12Z


It's further west.
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Quoting VaStormGuy:


12Z GFS is further west, about 50 miles further west on this run.



it is not further west than 06 run
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Quoting will40:
the 12Z GFS is not further west. It doesnt even bring it ashore

It doesn't matter if it makes landfall or not as there would still be impacts. Yes, the 12z is further west than the 06z.
(5000 comment, but who is keeping track)
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Quoting wxchaser97:

The GFS and Euro both give you some snowfall. Even the HPC has the DC area in a slight to moderate chance area of getting 4+ inches of snow.


If that is the case, then I obviously stole it. I think you should get some snow VA.


I would LOVE snow, maybe no school Wednesday!
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Quoting will40:
the 12Z GFS is not further west. It doesnt even bring it ashore


12Z GFS is further west, about 50 miles further west on this run.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Not snow here in the city and immediate area's.We ain't getting no big snow event here.

The GFS and Euro both give you some snowfall. Even the HPC has the DC area in a slight to moderate chance area of getting 4+ inches of snow.

Quoting VaStormGuy:


YEah I know, I was messing with you -__-



There's pretty much no way that we don't see impacts now, and that's not good... so we may as well hope some snow lovers get happy.

If that is the case, then I obviously stole it. I think you should get some snow VA.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
the 12Z GFS is not further west. It doesnt even bring it ashore
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Quoting wxchaser97:
GFS stalls the nor'easter just to the east of NY and NJ. This would have prolonged periods of either rain or snow depending on where you live. This still would mostly only be a hindrance to recovery efforts. Here it is at 72hrs.


This would be just awful.
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GFS stalls the nor'easter just to the east of NJ. This would have prolonged periods of either rain or snow depending on where you live. This still would mostly only be a hindrance to recovery efforts. Here it is at 72hrs.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Quoting wxchaser97:

Yeah if the Euro comes true they would get a good amount of snow. Also you gave me the template instead of me stealing it...


YEah I know, I was messing with you -__-

Quoting wxchaser97:

Good for a snow lover like you, but not for someone who wants little impacts.


There's pretty much no way that we don't see impacts now, and that's not good... so we may as well hope some snow lovers get happy.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Good for a snow lover like you, but not for someone who wants little impacts.
Not snow here in the city and immediate area's.We ain't getting no big snow event here.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17073


GFS and Euro in better agreement, and I'm favoring the Euro solution for the next 24 hours until we get more in range for the short-range models.
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Quoting VaStormGuy:


More in line with the Euro then... That is good!

Good for a snow lover like you, but not for someone who wants little impacts.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Quoting VaStormGuy:


Haven't seen the Euro then... 4-8 inches in the city and more to the west.

Yeah if the Euro comes true they would get a good amount of snow. Also you gave me the template instead of me stealing it...
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Quoting VaStormGuy:


Haven't seen the Euro then... 4-8 inches in the city and more to the west.
Tucker didn't really discuss those rain totals today.He did mention rain.But not to that extreme.They are predicting at least 1-3 inches.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17073
Quoting wxchaser97:
Well, it is further west and a little stronger than the last run. 987mb at 60hrs.


More in line with the Euro then... That is good!
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Well, it is further west and a little stronger than the last run. 987mb at 60hrs.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Oh cool the GFS doesn't run on standard time, it still thinks it is Daylight Savings Time, so we get the updates an hour early on each run.


I have to ask bro.. did you lose a bet or something?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Minimal impacts for my area with this storm.Some rain and wind nothing we're not use to here in D.C. Our local newspaper did say something about possible wet flakes.


Haven't seen the Euro then... 4-8 inches in the city and more to the west.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Guess sometimes you have to keep your knowledge and knowing of things to yourself, and let everyone around you figure it out themselves.
Amen to that. Have people in my life like that, too. Now, if we can be at peace on the battlefield...
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I like the GFS at this time of day, 1000mb at 42hrs. Also if it is 1hr earlier at night I can see more of the run.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Thanks, Dr. Masters!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.