A moderate-strength Nor'easter on Wednesday looking increasingly likely

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:38 PM GMT on November 03, 2012

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Storm-weary U.S. residents pounded by Superstorm Sandy may have a new storm to contend with on Wednesday: an early-season Nor'easter is expected to impact the mid-Atlantic and New England with strong winds and heavy rain. Our two top models, the European (ECMWF) and GFS (run by the U.S. National Weather Service), are now in agreement on both the track and intensity of the storm. The storm will move off the coast of South Carolina/Georgia on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains of 2 - 3" over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada, intensifying into a medium-strength Nor'easter with a central pressure of 984 mb by Wednesday evening. The European model, which did an exemplary job forecasting Hurricane Sandy, is slower, predicting the Nor'easter's highest winds will begin affecting New Jersey on Wednesday night. The GFS model is about 12 hours faster, predicting the strongest winds will arrive on Wednesday morning. A 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 - 45 mph will likely affect the coast from Maryland to Massachusetts, accompanied by a swath of 2 - 3" of rain. The heaviest rains will likely fall over Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The storm also has the potential to bring more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of New England. The storm is still four days away, and four-day forecasts of the path and intensity of Nor'easters usually have large errors. Nevertheless, residents and relief workers in the region hit by Sandy should anticipate the possibility of the arrival on Wednesday of a moderate-strength Nor'easter with heavy rain, accompanied by high winds capable of driving a 1 - 2 foot storm surge with battering waves. The surge and waves will potentially cause moderate to severe erosion on New Jersey coast, where Hurricane Sandy pulverized the protective beach dunes.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for Thursday morning, November 8, 2012, from the ECMWF model (left) and predicted wind speed for 2 pm EST on Wednesday, November 7, from the GFS model (right). Both models runs were done beginning at 12Z (8 am EDT) on November 3, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to extend from coastal Virginia to Massachusetts. The GFS model brings the Nor'easter to a point off the New Jersey coast about 12 hours faster than the ECMWF model.


Figure 2. Forecast track error for four of our top models used to predict Hurricane Sandy. The GFS model performed the best for 1 - 3 day forecasts, but the European (ECMWF) model far out-performed all models at longer-range 4 - 5 day forecasts. This may be due to the fact the model was able to successfully predict the timing of the arrival of a trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. that acted to steer Sandy to the north and then northwest. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Charities mobilize for Sandy
Sandy's death toll of 109 in the U.S. makes it the 25th deadliest hurricane in U.S. history, and the 2nd deadliest since 1972, when Hurricane Agnes killed 122 in the Northeast U.S. The main owners of The Weather Channel have agreed to match donations of up to $1 million to the American Red Cross, with all donations to benefit people in the hard-hit areas of the U.S. To have your donation matched, please visit www.redcross.org/sandy, or text SANDY to 90999. I also recommend my favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org. They are focusing their response efforts exclusively on the post-Sandy needs of people with disabilities.Check out the Portlight blog to see what they're up to. Sandy's greatest devastation occurred in Haiti, where rains of up to 20 inches in 24 hours unleashed rampaging flood waters that killed at least 54, left 200,000 homeless, wiped out thousand of acres of crops, and killed massive numbers of livestock. For impoverished families in Haiti still struggling to recover from the earthquake in 2010 and Hurricane Isaac in August, Sandy was devastating. These crops are the very essence of rural Haitian’s livelihoods, and there are fears widespread starvation will result. A disaster relief charity in Haiti that I've contributed to for many years, The Lambi Fund of Haiti, is seeking donations to help farmers purchase local seeds so that they can replant their crops in the wake of this latest terrible Haitian catastrophe.

I'll have an update Monday, unless there's some major change in the model forecasts for the coming Nor'easter.

Jeff Masters

Coast guard Rescue in Brigantine NJ during SAndy (NJcat3cane)
Coast guard rescue on my block during sandys AM high tide
Coast guard Rescue in Brigantine NJ during SAndy
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596. FlyingScotsman
3:33 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
well i totally disagree with you on this, as for those stupid people staying..until just the night before the storm hit, the mayor and govt were refusing to order evacuations..the people seeing this, thought the govt knew better and stayed..HAD the nyc govt ordered the evacuations days in advance, the loss of life would have been lessened..anyone who has lived or worked in the 5 boro's knows full well just how long it would take to evac everyone in the danger area..days in fact..people ..dont rely on them..you see the nws warning..YOU need to prepare and evacuate if necessary until its safe to return..as for bloomberg,its up to the people up there to decide come election day, its not for us to say..he is their mayor


I hear ya, and I do think Bloomberg screwed up royally. My point is that "seeing the NWS warning" is listening to *authorities,* not relying on oneself. Perhaps we're talking past each other. What worried me is people who ignored what the NHC and the NWS were saying and said, "Well, based on my own personal experience, I don't think it's going to be so bad, so I'm staying." In my mind, that attitude is partly unavoidable, but is exacerbated by people like Rush Limbaugh (after Isaac) suggesting that the NHC manufactured forecasts for political reasons. People out there just don't trust people like the NHC or other authorities (Govs. Cuomo, Christie, and Malloy were all excellent) when they issue warnings, and that's why I thought your language of "don't rely on authority, rely on yourself" was counterproductive.

But if all you meant was, "If the Mayor tells you it's going to be alright, don't take his word for it, but listen to the official warnings yourself and act accordingly," then I'm not disagreeing.
Member Since: September 1, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 216
595. indianrivguy
3:30 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:
I told my cousin in NJ about the storm Thursday Oct. 25th and she didn't seem to think it would be bad, was hoping it would just peter out and not be a problem. But I knew all too well that this was going to be a problem for them but I didn't give all the details because the average people don't understand and will look at us as doomcasters. Kept her updated that Monday morning about hearing 125mph gust on a buoy SE of Long Island and that it was bombing out as it's coming ashore. And texted her updates of what I was hearing in NYC, tunnels, damage ongoing while she was out of electricity not knowing what was going on.

Think their ticked off at me because I aint heard a word from her, and I know their fine because I see her on facebook and read everything about what they went thru.


wellll, you can pick your dog, your cat, your house, your car and your friends. You can even pick your nose, but you cannot pick your relatives...
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2556
594. pcola57
3:27 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:






your late with Rosa it became post TROPICAL on sunday so that been posted 100s of times now


Just woke up Taz..
So I posted something others have posted..
I can post what I want..
And you are singling me out because of what?
Did you try and "punk out" the other 99 posters?
I think not..
You got this "thing" whenever you see my pcola57 handle..
Don't worry about responding..
I have you on iggy now..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6838
593. Bluestorm5
3:27 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:






your late with Rosa it became post TROPICAL on sunday so that been posted 100s of times now

Don't be so rude, Taz :\ I thought this information was useful since I haven't been on here in few days. I was wondering how Rosa have been doing.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8027
592. indianrivguy
3:26 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
I just saw an interesting interview with two coastal engineers. They were warning about the uncontrolled moving of the sand in the coastal cities back towards the ocean. If it is not done properly, they can make the erosion even worse by placing the sand in the wrong place. To summarize what they said, it is because of the currents moving North and South and East and west along the coasts. If they pile too much sand in one particular place, it would cause a large pile up of water and would increase the erosion to the south of it. I know that in South Florida, they are very careful how they build the jetties because of this very fact. Interesting the things we do not think about. I wonder if anyone can find a link on this?


Here in Florida, with a north to south longshore current on the east coast, the south side beaches of all the inlets recede. I think Palm Beach County has the best idea so far. They collect the sand on the north beach and then pump it underneath the inlet and release it on the southern beach. This mitigates the amount of very expensive dredging needed to maintain the inlets, and some of the beach "re nourishment" on the south side.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2556
591. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:26 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
590. RitaEvac
3:25 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
I told my cousin in NJ about the storm Thursday Oct. 25th and she didn't seem to think it would be bad, was hoping it would just peter out and not be a problem. But I knew all too well that this was going to be a problem for them but I didn't give all the details because the average people don't understand and will look at us as doomcasters. Kept her updated that Monday morning about hearing 125mph gust on a buoy SE of Long Island and that it was bombing out as it's coming ashore. And texted her updates of what I was hearing in NYC, tunnels, damage ongoing while she was out of electricity not knowing what was going on.

Think their ticked off at me because I aint heard a word from her, and I know their fine because I see her on facebook and read everything about what they went thru.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
589. RitaEvac
3:11 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting indianrivguy:


This was an issue after Andrew. The streets were dry by evening the day of landfall. Andrew was small, fast and relatively dry across south Florida. But the thousands of breached roofs then had to endure several weeks of tropical wave and trof issues that then caused everyone to also lose contents and interiors. Missing shingles turned into 100% loss of contents.


So more damage is on the way for them up there, and they don't have a clue apparently.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
588. Grothar
3:10 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
I just saw an interesting interview with two coastal engineers. They were warning about the uncontrolled moving of the sand in the coastal cities back towards the ocean. If it is not done properly, they can make the erosion even worse by placing the sand in the wrong place. To summarize what they said, it is because of the currents moving North and South and East and west along the coasts. If they pile too much sand in one particular place, it would cause a large pile up of water and would increase the erosion to the south of it. I know that in South Florida, they are very careful how they build the jetties because of this very fact. Interesting the things we do not think about. I wonder if anyone can find a link on this?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26426
587. indianrivguy
3:08 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting aspectre:
415 weatherh98: Hurricane and Massive winter storm within a 2 week span. good luck up there!
417 wxgeek723: Oh please it isn't massive.

The upcoming Nor'easter doesn't hafta be anywhere near Sandy's size to cause massive damage.
What are now reparable homes and businesses could become totally unsalvageable after a smaller storm due to the pre-existing Sandy-induced undermining and other structual weakening.


This was an issue after Andrew. The streets were dry by evening the day of landfall. Andrew was small, fast and relatively dry across south Florida. But the thousands of breached roofs then had to endure several weeks of tropical wave and trof issues that then caused everyone to also lose contents and interiors. Missing shingles turned into 100% loss of contents.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2556
586. Tazmanian
3:02 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting pcola57:
G'morning all,
Rosa not going to make it another day I'm afraid..

ZCZC MIATCMEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012
2100 UTC SUN NOV 04 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 121.5W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 121.5W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 121.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 12.9N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.2N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.4N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.5N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 121.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON ROSA
. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





And some of our "L"'s energy moving through the mid-west headed towards East coast waters..












your late with Rosa it became post TROPICAL on sunday so that been posted 100s of times now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115256
585. RitaEvac
3:00 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Jersey is currently getting punished with all the bad behaviour from the show "Jersey Shore" had brought on.


Jersey Shore is gone....literally
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
584. washingtonian115
2:57 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
LargoFl is a man?.Very strange as I thought that was a female?.Oh Lordy our imaginations can really fly sometimes.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17073
583. washingtonian115
2:52 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting Autistic2:


Does mother nature have anothe name that is three letters long and starts with G?

Forget all that luck stough and be blessed!
Jersey is currently getting punished with all the bad behaviour from the show "Jersey Shore" had brought on.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17073
582. kwgirl
2:52 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting goosegirl1:



Sorry to comment again- the route you map does not follow I64 at all, it follows I68 from Morgantown to Hancock MD then merges to I70. Do not use this route if there is any chance of snow- it it notorious for dangerous winter conditions. This is the reason I didn't advise it to begin with. I68 was closed from Cumberland MD to Morgantown WV for 3 days following the blizzard last week.

Don't know why I'm worrying, hopefully the adjuster is well on his way and has a safe trip. Have a nice Monday everyone!
Good morning all. If she is coming from Mobile, she should take the southern route across I10, to get closer to the coast and avoid the mountains. It might be longer but it would be safer.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
581. goosegirl1
2:48 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting MsZola:


If you're worried about encountering storm conditions during the drive, I think the sooner you leave, the better.

That being said, you also might look into an alternate route--use I79 instead of I81, and then I64. That will keep you further inland and if the weather turns bad you will be traveling towards it rather than having it form up around you.

Here's a google map, just used Mobile AL to Trenton NJ for demo puroises and dragged the route onto I79.

I79 route



Sorry to comment again- the route you map does not follow I64 at all, it follows I68 from Morgantown to Hancock MD then merges to I70. Do not use this route if there is any chance of snow- it it notorious for dangerous winter conditions. This is the reason I didn't advise it to begin with. I68 was closed from Cumberland MD to Morgantown WV for 3 days following the blizzard last week.

Don't know why I'm worrying, hopefully the adjuster is well on his way and has a safe trip. Have a nice Monday everyone!
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
580. Autistic2
2:41 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting slinkyredfoot:
Its funny, but i would have guessed(bet the farm in fact) that "LargoFl" was a woman. yet hes a Man. odd....


Dont know why but I alway thought female also....
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 470
579. Autistic2
2:37 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting NJcat3cane:
I dont know what us in Jersey did to Mother Nature but it seems like we pissed her off BIG time and shes trying to whipe us off the map completely. At this rate its almost a lock that theres gonna be atleast one or two more coastal storms this winter and even if they are weak its just gonna keep taking beach away more and more until the next big one. East coast hurricanes seems to hit in bunches threwout a couple year span. I wouldent be surprised if another one hit next year.. Make it three years in a row if that happened.. Been in Boths Irene and Sandys Eye now.


Does mother nature have anothe name that is three letters long and starts with G?

Forget all that luck stough and be blessed!
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 470
578. overwash12
2:37 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
It's a brutal Monday morning for the 776,830 customers in New Jersey who woke up, yet again, in cold homes, without power.

That's the bad news. The good news is that since Hurricane Sandy barreled through the state nearly a week ago, nearly 2 million of the 2.7 million customers who lost power in the storm have had their electricity restored, utility officials said this morning.
I have a feeling they will make it! The Eskimo women suck the snot out the little ones noses to make them feel better.LOL
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
577. Grothar
2:36 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26426
576. Grothar
2:35 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
ECMWF MODEL


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26426
575. goosegirl1
2:35 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting MsZola:


If you're worried about encountering storm conditions during the drive, I think the sooner you leave, the better.

That being said, you also might look into an alternate route--use I79 instead of I81, and then I64. That will keep you further inland and if the weather turns bad you will be traveling towards it rather than having it form up around you.

Here's a google map, just used Mobile AL to Trenton NJ for demo puroises and dragged the route onto I79.

I79 route



Not meaning any disrespect, but I live in this area- do not use I79 or 64. I64 was closed for part of the storm, and I79 will cross some of the highest terrain in WV and put you at risk of getting stuck in central WV in a blizzard. I81 crosses high terrain as well, but after you leave WV and get to the interchange with I70 you are out of the woods, as far as mountains go.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
574. LargoFl
2:27 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
It's a brutal Monday morning for the 776,830 customers in New Jersey who woke up, yet again, in cold homes, without power.

That's the bad news. The good news is that since Hurricane Sandy barreled through the state nearly a week ago, nearly 2 million of the 2.7 million customers who lost power in the storm have had their electricity restored, utility officials said this morning.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39057
573. LargoFl
2:23 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Snow prediction Map..good thru sat the 10th.......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39057
572. wxchaser97
2:22 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
HPC now giving the NE and Mid Atlantic a chance of 4 inches of snow in some areas.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
571. LargoFl
2:21 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting ARiot:
Had some freezing fog in the TN Valley earlier today. Didn't hear of any slick spots on main roads.

Also Trees
When the long-term recovery activity starts, I hope they can begin to replant trees in the impacted areas of the NE with a nod to future climate considerations. Lots of the "downed tree" photos indicate poor choices on both species and location. That's a mistake easily avoided down the line when replanting.
good thought there alright
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39057
570. LargoFl
2:20 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39057
569. ILwthrfan
2:20 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Caught this on my way to work this morning...not bad for a Monday I say......

Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1526
568. ARiot
2:20 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Had some freezing fog in the TN Valley earlier today. Didn't hear of any slick spots on main roads.

Also Trees
When the long-term recovery activity starts, I hope they can begin to replant trees in the impacted areas of the NE with a nod to future climate considerations. Lots of the "downed tree" photos indicate poor choices on both species and location. That's a mistake easily avoided down the line when replanting.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 366
567. washingtonian115
2:19 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
I've been predicting now that December is when we here in the mid-Atlantic(particularly the D.C metro area) could see our first snow.With the pattern shaping up looks possible and I hope...It appears Sandy has made some sort of weekness in the atmosphere for more storms to follow suite.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17073
566. LargoFl
2:16 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
..A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS BY LATE TUESDAY...

...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL BE COMMONPLACE TO COMMENCE THE WEEK...


A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE FEATURED TO BEGIN THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A STRONG
TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EASTWARD. ACROSS THE
LATTER LOCATION...THE LEAD DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PUSHING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT
TOWARD THE EAST WHILE CARVING OUT A FAIRLY POTENT TROUGH. EARLY
ON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND TOWARD THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
U.S. AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS. SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY EVEN BECOME LOCALLY
SEVERE FROM THE WESTERN GULF REGION OFF TOWARD THE
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. THEREAFTER...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FORCED NORTHWARD ALONG THE GULF STREAM WHERE IT POTENTIALLY WILL
INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. A BLOCKING RIDGE
ANCHORING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO EJECT INTO THE OPEN OCEAN. THE COMPLEX INTERACTION
EXPECTED CURRENTLY SUPPORTS A PHASING WHICH WOULD ULTIMATELY LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST A DEEPENING OF THIS SURFACE LOW WHILE
RISING UP THE COAST WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COASTLINE BY LATE TUESDAY BEFORE THE IMPACTS SPREAD NORTHWARD.

THE COUNTERPART WITHIN THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REGIME WILL
SUPPORT ABUNDANT WARMTH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AS A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. SINKING MOTION WITHIN THIS AIR
COLUMN SHOULD EASILY RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH LOWER
90S IN THE DESERTS TO START THE WEEK. ADDITIONALLY...LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP THE MARINE LAYER/THICK STRATUS OUT OVER
THE COASTAL PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD ULTIMATELY ALLOW COASTAL LOCALES
TO WARM READILY INTO THE 70S AND EVEN LOWER 80S. LOOKING TO THE
NORTH...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK
DOWN AS A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE TRACKS TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT OVER
WASHINGTON BY EARLY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT ELECTION DAY.

ELSEWHERE...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
BE A MAJOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCER GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...IT SHOULD ALLOW AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW TO FALL OVER
SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND DOWN INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. FURTHER...THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO PLAY A KEY
ROLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM ALONG THE EAST
COAST LATER IN THE WEEK.


RUBIN-OSTER
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39057
565. KarenRei
2:16 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Salter's contraption works differently that cyclonebueter's. Salter wants to use wave action to force warm sea surface water to lower depths, while CB's device uses the movement of the Gulf Stream.


I'm personally kind of fond of the idea of using a large vortex generator (a stout, open-topped cylindrical tower with angled inlets containing fans to start the process; once the process gets going they could actually generate power). It could be used to create competing centers of circulation or to try to constrain an existing COC to a given location. Not to mention producing electricity at the same time.

Vortex generators have been demonstrated at smaller scales; they can create a vortex that extends to orders of magnitude taller than the tower itself. Germany under the Nazis even weaponized one (although it proved to be quite ineffective as an anti-aircraft weapon, although a variant saw limited use as a flame thrower near the end of the war) The key here is that one for hurricane control would need to be kilometers across, and floating.

Quoting Neapolitan:
"Salter...has also developed the idea of using hundreds of ships spraying very fine seawater droplets high into the sky to reflect sunlight and thus counter global warming."

Hmmm...that sounds a little like eating more to lose weight, or driving faster to save gas. How "hundreds of ships" burning fossil fuels to both move themselves around and drive their high-pressure seawater pumps could "counter global warming" escapes me at the moment... ;-)


It's masking, not countering the cause. The problem of course being the problem keeps getting worse while you mask it and you keep having to do more and more to hide it. And if your system ever for some reason breaks down, what you've been making suddenly appears all at once (an excess of water vapor leaves the atmosphere quite fast!). And anything to reduce sunlight is at *best* a partial and potentially problematic "solution". It does nothing to prevent ocean acidification and one would expect ecological repercussions of reduced sunlight (such as reduced photosynthesis). To say nothing of if the whole process goes all wrong (water vapor is kind of dangerous to use because while clouds increase reflection, water vapor is a greenhouse gas, and it's very hard to model the behavior of atmospheric water vapor)
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 940
564. Grothar
2:14 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26426
563. LargoFl
2:14 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
ODIN..here is the inland virginia warnings..HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
426 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012

NCZ003-004-019-020-VAZ022-032-033-043-045-046-060 930-
SURRY-STOKES-WILKES-YADKIN-ROANOKE-PATRICK-FRANKL IN-HENRY-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-
426 AM EST MON NOV 5 2012

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

FROST ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39057
562. LargoFl
2:10 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
A STRONG COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINS WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39057
561. wxchaser97
2:09 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting VaStormGuy:


Dude, you totally stole the template I posted on chat one time on the second map :P but it's cool, I agree a lot with your forecast

Dude, you totally gave me that template or else I wouldn't use it.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
560. MsZola
2:06 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting odinslightning:
hey guys i have a few questions for you. I am being deployed for Hurricane Sandy (as many of you know I am a catastrophe property field adjuster)....

1st question....What does it look like for the Nor'Easter coming this week? I haven't left for NJ yet but I have been told to get up there as soon as possible....However with this incoming storm I fear getting on the highway and being trapped in the Virginia Mountains in a blizzard without a hotel room....


Thanks in advance for any info you have. I need as much info as possible before I get out of here....Down here in Mobile it looks like the Nor'Easter is setting up as it is very cold, rainy, and it looks like the low pressure is gaining water and energy....Got darker and darker all day with more and more rain.....


If you're worried about encountering storm conditions during the drive, I think the sooner you leave, the better.

That being said, you also might look into an alternate route--use I79 instead of I81, and then I64. That will keep you further inland and if the weather turns bad you will be traveling towards it rather than having it form up around you.

Here's a google map, just used Mobile AL to Trenton NJ for demo purposes and dragged the route onto I79.

I79 route
Member Since: July 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 35
559. LargoFl
2:05 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
For West Palm Beach...

guess the front will reach way down to you folks this time huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39057
558. LargoFl
2:05 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting FlyingScotsman:


On the contrary, I beg to differ. While in some areas the post-storm response has been poor, and I think Bloomberg in particular has been terrible, it's precisely refusal to trust authorities and insistence on relying on oneself (the American way!) that has made this such a serious tragedy. Every reliable forecast and every important authority said, "This is gonna be the big one, get out of there!" and yet tens of thousands of people stayed in mandatory evacuation zones because they decided they knew better. Most of them got lucky%u2014though they endangered the lives of courageous first responders%u2014but a few dozen paid for it with their lives. I'm sorry, but this is not a time for the standard American anti-government rant. That will just lead to more lives being lost in the future.
well i totally disagree with you on this, as for those stupid people staying..until just the night before the storm hit, the mayor and govt were refusing to order evacuations..the people seeing this, thought the govt knew better and stayed..HAD the nyc govt ordered the evacuations days in advance, the loss of life would have been lessened..anyone who has lived or worked in the 5 boro's knows full well just how long it would take to evac everyone in the danger area..days in fact..people ..dont rely on them..you see the nws warning..YOU need to prepare and evacuate if necessary until its safe to return..as for bloomberg,its up to the people up there to decide come election day, its not for us to say..he is their mayor
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39057
557. pcola57
2:04 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
G'morning all,
Rosa not going to make it another day I'm afraid..

ZCZC MIATCMEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012
2100 UTC SUN NOV 04 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 121.5W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 121.5W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 121.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 12.9N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.2N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.4N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.5N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 121.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON ROSA
. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





And some of our "L"'s energy moving through the mid-west headed towards East coast waters..






Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6838
556. GeoffreyWPB
1:43 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
For West Palm Beach...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11257
555. aspectre
1:39 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
554. longislander102
1:36 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting NJcat3cane:
O no! GFS stalls this out in a loop almost back to the coast nearing a SOuth/Central Jersey landfall.. 988MB but is bad


No, no, no....please stop. I am opting out of the next storm (from Massapequa, NY, south shore).

Electricity back Saturday night, no damage to my house.
Member Since: August 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 145
553. FtMyersgal
1:26 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
On top of the damage and destruction from Sandy, and the upcoming Nor'Easter, I read Parts of New Jersey experienced a 2.0 magnitude earthquake:
Link
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1219
552. Neapolitan
1:14 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting pottery:

That idea has been around this blog for years, courtesy of blogger "Cyclone Buster" who most people dismissed as being crazy.
He's been talking about his 'tunnels' for ages.
It's a good concept though....
Salter's contraption works differently that cyclonebueter's. Salter wants to use wave action to force warm sea surface water to lower depths, while CB's device uses the movement of the Gulf Stream. But there are a number of major hurdles to clear for either idea to be made feasible. There's the astronomical cost of researching, developing, testing, building, deploying, and maintaining the hundreds or thousands or even tens of thousands of these devices needed to cool the surfave enough to make a difference (and while the Salter device looks to be many times cheaper, far more of them would be required). And there are also environmental problems, such as the danger of massive, uncontrollable, self-sustaining phytoplankton blooms.

"Salter...has also developed the idea of using hundreds of ships spraying very fine seawater droplets high into the sky to reflect sunlight and thus counter global warming."

Hmmm...that sounds a little like eating more to lose weight, or driving faster to save gas. How "hundreds of ships" burning fossil fuels to both move themselves around and drive their high-pressure seawater pumps could "counter global warming" escapes me at the moment... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
551. FLWeatherFreak91
1:07 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting FlyingScotsman:


On the contrary, I beg to differ. While in some areas the post-storm response has been poor, and I think Bloomberg in particular has been terrible, it's precisely refusal to trust authorities and insistence on relying on oneself (the American way!) that has made this such a serious tragedy. Every reliable forecast and every important authority said, "This is gonna be the big one, get out of there!" and yet tens of thousands of people stayed in mandatory evacuation zones because they decided they knew better. Most of them got lucky—though they endangered the lives of courageous first responders—but a few dozen paid for it with their lives. I'm sorry, but this is not a time for the standard American anti-government rant. That will just lead to more lives being lost in the future.
We are responsible for ourselves. Leaders can suggest what one should do in a storm, but it comes down to the individual to decide what action should be taken to protect himself. Yes we do have some stupid people who stayed through the storm but they shouldn't have been expecting any help from first responders since they were clearly warned.

I really take offense to your comment. What is this negative blabber about the American way? Personal responsibility and keeping a critical eye on the government is what made this country so great.

Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3623
550. MahFL
1:04 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting beell:
One of the lessons learned in SE Texas as far as storm prep goes; Keep your gas tank full. Fill up often if possible-well in advance of an approaching storm.

By placing a high pre-storm demand on fuel inventories a few more days to "top off" the tanks of fuel retailers through the "normal" supply chain is secured.

It will not eliminate the problem of post-storm fuel shortages-especially in areas already running short, but it does make a difference.


Part of the problem in NJ was the mass transit was down, so people who normally did not use thier cars to get to work etc did so.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3539
549. pottery
12:52 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting FlyingScotsman:


On the contrary, I beg to differ. While in some areas the post-storm response has been poor, and I think Bloomberg in particular has been terrible, it's precisely refusal to trust authorities and insistence on relying on oneself (the American way!) that has made this such a serious tragedy. Every reliable forecast and every important authority said, "This is gonna be the big one, get out of there!" and yet tens of thousands of people stayed in mandatory evacuation zones because they decided they knew better. Most of them got lucky—though they endangered the lives of courageous first responders—but a few dozen paid for it with their lives. I'm sorry, but this is not a time for the standard American anti-government rant. That will just lead to more lives being lost in the future.

Largo has a point though.
There were (and probably always will be) conflicting reports of the coming dangers.
It really IS time that persons become responsible enough to look after themselves.
The Information was available, and the warnings were pretty clear.
Bloomberg was irresponsible and people took a cue from him. Instead of the NHC and other Professionals in the know.

People need to make decisions based on their own assessment of information provided by the RELEVANT authorities.
Unfortunately, too many folks are unable to accept responsibility for themselves and depend on State, Others, "Them", and so on.

It's a serious problem- our hesitation to fend for ourselves.
And it's not 'normal' behaviour, is it.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24373
548. FlyingScotsman
12:38 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
this disaster really needs to teach the every day working person..Take care of YOURself..do not rely on these people to aid and protect you and your family..no better lesson could be learned from all this...


On the contrary, I beg to differ. While in some areas the post-storm response has been poor, and I think Bloomberg in particular has been terrible, it's precisely refusal to trust authorities and insistence on relying on oneself (the American way!) that has made this such a serious tragedy. Every reliable forecast and every important authority said, "This is gonna be the big one, get out of there!" and yet tens of thousands of people stayed in mandatory evacuation zones because they decided they knew better. Most of them got lucky—though they endangered the lives of courageous first responders—but a few dozen paid for it with their lives. I'm sorry, but this is not a time for the standard American anti-government rant. That will just lead to more lives being lost in the future.
Member Since: September 1, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 216
547. LargoFl
12:36 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39057
546. beell
12:35 PM GMT on November 05, 2012
One of the lessons learned in SE Texas as far as storm prep goes; Keep your gas tank full. Fill up often if possible-well in advance of an approaching storm.

By placing a high pre-storm demand on fuel inventories a few more days to "top off" the tanks of fuel retailers through the "normal" supply chain is secured.

It will not eliminate the problem of post-storm fuel shortages-especially in areas already running short, but it does make a difference.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16718

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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