Moderate-strength Nor'easter may hit Sandy-devastated areas Wednesday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:16 PM GMT on November 02, 2012

Share this Blog
44
+

Storm-weary U.S. residents pounded by Superstorm Sandy may have a new storm to contend with next Wednesday: an early-season Nor'easter is expected to impact the mid-Atlantic and New England with strong winds and heavy rain. Our two top models, the European (ECMWF) and GFS (run by the National Weather Service), both predict that an area of low pressure will move off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada. The storm is predicted to intensify into a medium-strength Nor'easter with a central pressure of 992 mb by Wednesday afternoon, when it will be centered a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY. The European model, which did an exemplary job forecasting Hurricane Sandy, predicts a stronger storm that will stay just offshore and bring a 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 - 45 mph to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York on Wednesday morning and afternoon. The GFS model and 06Z NOGAPS model runs from 06Z (2 am EDT) this morning have a weaker storm that is farther offshore, with the main impact of the Nor'easter occurring Wednesday evening in coastal Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Maine. The Nor'easter will likely bring a swath of 2 - 4" of rain to the coast, and the potential for more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of the New England. The storm is still five days away, and five-day forecasts of the path and intensity of Nor'easters usually have large errors. Nevertheless, residents and relief workers in the region hit by Sandy should anticipate the possibility of the arrival on Wednesday of a moderate-strength Nor'easter with heavy rain, accompanied by high winds capable of driving a 1 - 2 foot storm surge with battering waves.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for Wednesday morning, November 7, 2012, from the 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the ECMWF model made on November 2, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (40 - 45 mph) are predicted to extend from coastal Maryland to the east tip of Long Island, NY.


Figure 2. Forecast track error for four of our top models used to predict Hurricane Sandy. The GFS model performed the best for 1 - 3 day forecasts, but the European (ECMWF) model far out-performed all models at longer-range 4 - 5 day forecasts. This may be due to the fact the model was able to successfully predict the timing of the arrival of a trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. that acted to steer Sandy to the north and then northwest. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.


Figure 3. Forecast track error for four of our top models used to predict Hurricane Sandy, for their runs that began at 00Z October 25, 2012. The GFDL and ECMWF models made great forecasts that correctly showed Sandy making landfall in Southern New Jersey in five days. The GFS and HWRF models made good 1 - 3 day forecasts, but failed to anticipate Sandy's northward turn towards the U.S. coast. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Links
Impressive loop of 1-minute visible satellite imagery spanning 6 days of Sandy's life.

A one-day time lapse video from a New York City webcam showing Sandy's impact on the city. It's eerie to see the city suddenly plunged into darkness.

First round of damage assessment aerial imagery collected by NOAA's National Geodetic Survey on Oct. 31 along the New Jersey coast.


Figure 4. Flooding in Haiti from Hurricane Sandy. Image credit: The Lambi Fund of Haiti.

Charities mobilize for Sandy
Sandy's death toll of 98 in the U.S. makes the storm one of the 30 most deadly hurricanes to affect the U.S.. The outpouring of charitable donations in the wake of the terrible storm has been great to see. NBC is hosting a benefit concert at 8 pm tonight (Friday), and the main owners of The Weather Channel have agreed to match donations of up to $1 million to the American Red Cross, with all donations to benefit people in the hard-hit areas of the U.S. To have your donation matched, please visit www.redcross.org/sandy, or text SANDY to 90999. I also recommend my favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org. They are focusing their response efforts exclusively on the post-Sandy needs of people with disabilities.Check out the Portlight blog to see what they're up to.

Sandy's greatest devastation occurred in Haiti, where rains of up to 20 inches in 24 hours unleashed rampaging flood waters that killed at least 54, left 200,000 homeless, wiped out thousand of acres of crops, and killed massive numbers of livestock. For impoverished families in Haiti still struggling to recover from the earthquake in 2010 and Hurricane Isaac in August, Sandy was devastating. These crops are the very essence of rural Haitian’s livelihoods, and there are fears widespread starvation will result. A disaster relief charity in Haiti that I've contributed to for many years, The Lambi Fund of Haiti, is seeking donations to help farmers purchase local seeds so that they can replant their crops in the wake of this latest terrible Haitian catastrophe.

I'll have an update this weekend on the coming Nor'easter.

Jeff Masters

Floods due to Sandy (WunderLecha)
The waters of Sagua la Grande river crossing the National highway in Ranchuelo, Cuba
Floods due to Sandy
Tree damage in Tucker County, W.V. (beaudodson)
Thousands of trees were damaged in West Virginia by the heavy/wet snow. Many were without power for days.
Tree damage in Tucker County, W.V.
Remnants of Sandy (stoneygirl)
These are a few of the incredible clouds associated with Hurricane Sandy. I am blessed because I didn't have any damage. Thank you God. Sending all my thoughts and prayers to NY and NJ where the devastation will take years to recover from.
Remnants of Sandy

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 655 - 605

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

655. washingtonian115
8:55 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
This nor'easter will be what we've been use to for weeks now here.Wind and rain.The wind has been going strong here since Thursday.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17083
654. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
7:38 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
653. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:37 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
could it have a yellow circle at the 8 pm update?


no just an area of showers moving over the region
organization threat low

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54360
652. LargoFl
7:37 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
NO circles there yet.....................CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N82W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N82W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 8N82W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN
78W-84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER N FROM
14N-18N BETWEEN 79W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM BELIZE TO PANAMA. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO N OF 18N
BETWEEN 64W-70W. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E
OF 63W. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N79W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39186
651. LargoFl
7:35 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
whats bad here is that ALOT of people dont have electric or radio's yet and might not know this is coming..possibly..............
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
AFFECT OUR REGION AROUND THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS. THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39186
650. LargoFl
7:32 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Via reuters:

The death toll from the storm rose to at least 110 with nine more deaths reported in New Jersey on Saturday, raising the total in that state to 22. New York revised its total down by one to 40, Reuters reports.

The storm killed 69 in the Caribbean before turning north and hammering the US northeast coast on Monday, ...
my guess is as they go from house to house they will be finding more in the rubble..this is just awful
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39186
649. TropicalAnalystwx13
7:22 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
From Angela:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
648. CaicosRetiredSailor
7:18 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/basic-service s-return-new-york-article-1.1195860


Food was distributed Friday in several badly-battered neighborhoods: Coney Island, the South Shore of Staten Island, Chinatown in lower Manhattan, and the Rockaways. About 290,000 meals and nearly 500,000 bottles of water were handed out Thursday as residents struggled to find those basic necessities.

There were 5,500 people still stranded in 15 city storm shelters. Forty city schools were damaged and unlikely to open Monday.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
647. allancalderini
7:18 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:






Has Grothar seen this first yet?
could it have a yellow circle at the 8 pm update?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4401
646. Civicane49
7:08 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
645. hydrus
7:05 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
644. CaicosRetiredSailor
7:02 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Via reuters:

The death toll from the storm rose to at least 110 with nine more deaths reported in New Jersey on Saturday, raising the total in that state to 22. New York revised its total down by one to 40, Reuters reports.

The storm killed 69 in the Caribbean before turning north and hammering the US northeast coast on Monday, ...
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
643. hydrus
6:59 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Quoting wxgeek723:


Irene and Lee.
Its even worse in three,s -,Bob, Danny and Juan.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
642. hydrus
6:58 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
This is somewhat interesting. Probably will happen if the NAO does go way into the positive.DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 AM CDT SAT NOV 03 2012

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD...SHIFTING FROM AN
ERN TROUGH/WRN RIDGE TO A WRN TROUGH/ERN RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

AN ERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN D4-D5...AND WILL EXIT THE COAST IN THE
D6-D7 TIME FRAME. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY COOL AND STABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.

BY D7 AND D8...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE WRN STATES...AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD. THIS WILL CAUSE WARM HUMID
AIR TO STREAM NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GFS BRINGS THE TROUGH EWD
INTO THE PLAINS ON D8 WITH A DEEP SURFACE LOW...SUGGESTING SEVERE
WEATHER FROM OK INTO SRN MN. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH
FARTHER W. EVEN WITH THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION...INSTABILITY IS LIKELY
TO BE LIMITED.

SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE DENOTED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS ONCE
PREDICTABILITY OF THE TROUGH INCREASES.

..JEWELL.. 11/03/2012
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
641. MAweatherboy1
6:57 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Unfortunately, it's starting to look like this Nor'Easter is going to be the kind of storm that would make national headlines even without much of the East Coast getting devastated by a hurricane less than a week ago... just awful.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7836
640. wxgeek723
6:55 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
When they strike they seem strike in pairs. Frances and Jeanne come to mind.


Irene and Lee.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3588
639. Tazmanian
6:50 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:






Has Grothar seen this first yet?




he seen nothing 1st
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
638. aislinnpaps
6:49 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:






Has Grothar seen this first yet?


Of course he has, but whether he posted it yet, I don't know. *S*
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3145
637. CaicosRetiredSailor
6:46 PM GMT on November 03, 2012






Has Grothar seen this first yet?
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
636. ncstorm
6:45 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
144 hours


168 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
635. hydrus
6:41 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
634. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:40 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54360
633. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:39 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54360
632. pottery
6:39 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Quoting WitsEndNJ:
What is really being ignored in this storm - and Irene as well - is the real source of the massive power outages that are so disruptive, which is all the trees that are falling on the lines. Trees didn't used to fall with regularity on power lines - or people, cars and houses. The winds in both those storms were not extraordinary, nothing that a healthy tree shouldn't be able to withstand, and that includes the snow in West Virginia. Why are they falling now?

The answer is pretty obvious if you trouble to actually LOOK at them. They are all dying. Every species, every age, every location. They have obvious symptoms - broken branches, cankers, splitting bark, holes, thin crowns, early leaf drop, lack of autumn color, yellowing needles, bark covered with lichens and fungus. You can't find a healthy tree anymore.

So the question becomes, why are they dying? Most foresters and scientists will say, climate change and/or invasive pests. But those explanations don't fit the empirical evidence which is that even native pests and diseases have run amock, and even young trees grown and watered and fertilized in nurseries are exhibit the identical symptoms of decline. Even annual, tropical ornamentals in enriched soil in pots that like heat, and aquatic plants in ponds have injured foliage and stunted growth. So what do all of these plants have in common?

The answer is, the composition of the atmosphere. Most people don't realize it, because it's invisible, the the background level of tropospheric ozone is inexorably increasing. Precursors from Asia travel across oceans and continents and the persistent concentration has reached a threshold that is intolerable to the plants that absorb it when they photosynthesize. Agricultural yield and quality are reduced, and especially trees that are exposed to cumulative damage season after season are universally - around the world - in decline.

This process has been well known to foresters and agronomists for decades, and demonstrated in field observation and controlled fumigation experiments. They just don't want to publicize it, or even admit it, because the source is the emissions from industrial civilization itself. They would rather point to drought, insects, fungus and disease EVEN THOUGH it is well known that ozone debilitates plants causing their root systems to shrink as they allocate more energy to repairing damaged foliage, rendering them more vulnerable to drought and wind...AND impinges on their natural immunity to attacks from insects, disease and fungus, which exist precisely to break down dying trees, not destroy healthy trees.

Most of the trees that fell during Sandy were rotted inside. Photos here: http://witsendnj.blogspot.com/

Thank you for that post.
Intriguing stuff, which I will follow-up.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
631. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:37 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54360
630. hydrus
6:35 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Pressure has been lower almost every run.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
629. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:33 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54360
628. ncstorm
6:31 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Euro-120 hours
Winds
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
627. ncstorm
6:29 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
120 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
626. hydrus
6:29 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
12z ECMWF in-line with the 12z GFS and 12z CMC, much stronger.

Talk about making a bad situation much worse.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
625. PalmBeachWeather
6:28 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
When they strike they seem strike in pairs. Frances and Jeanne come to mind.
GT.....I'll never forget those 2 storms
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5888
624. ncstorm
6:23 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
this is the classic noreaster right here..Gulf of mexico and then exiting off the east coast..snow for a lot of folks

96 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
623. TropicalAnalystwx13
6:22 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
12z ECMWF in-line with the 12z GFS and 12z CMC, much stronger.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
622. stormwatcherCI
6:21 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
New Jersey's gas crunch in the wake of Hurricane Sandy has become so severe that state officials are implementing gas rationing for passenger vehicles in the counties hardest hit by the storm
Link
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
621. LurkyMcLurkerson
6:16 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Quoting Manhattancane:


Wasn't that a commercial once? Two plowers race with plows scraping on the asphalt making sparks to pick up one flake.


Ha! If so, I don't remember it, but it's not that far off, especially if it's been a dry winter. My dad and I watch them from the porch sometimes, sipping our coffee and laughing. It's sort of endearing, really, they do need the pay, and hey, the major roads are often super pristine.

But a serious storm is a whole different gig, and I do wish that at least the media would do a way better job of trying to present stuff with that context in mind. It would help a lot of folks figure out what they should actually be expecting -- some inconvenience vs. really dangerous? Day off from school vs. school could flood?

Some local mets do better with that than others, I think, but the big markets and the national press are often so hyped that even the serious forecasts sometimes feel both sensational and low on useful info.
Member Since: August 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 368
620. ncstorm
6:15 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
12z Euro.

72 hours..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
619. WitsEndNJ
6:09 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
What is really being ignored in this storm - and Irene as well - is the real source of the massive power outages that are so disruptive, which is all the trees that are falling on the lines. Trees didn't used to fall with regularity on power lines - or people, cars and houses. The winds in both those storms were not extraordinary, nothing that a healthy tree shouldn't be able to withstand, and that includes the snow in West Virginia. Why are they falling now?

The answer is pretty obvious if you trouble to actually LOOK at them. They are all dying. Every species, every age, every location. They have obvious symptoms - broken branches, cankers, splitting bark, holes, thin crowns, early leaf drop, lack of autumn color, yellowing needles, bark covered with lichens and fungus. You can't find a healthy tree anymore.

So the question becomes, why are they dying? Most foresters and scientists will say, climate change and/or invasive pests. But those explanations don't fit the empirical evidence which is that even native pests and diseases have run amock, and even young trees grown and watered and fertilized in nurseries are exhibit the identical symptoms of decline. Even annual, tropical ornamentals in enriched soil in pots that like heat, and aquatic plants in ponds have injured foliage and stunted growth. So what do all of these plants have in common?

The answer is, the composition of the atmosphere. Most people don't realize it, because it's invisible, the the background level of tropospheric ozone is inexorably increasing. Precursors from Asia travel across oceans and continents and the persistent concentration has reached a threshold that is intolerable to the plants that absorb it when they photosynthesize. Agricultural yield and quality are reduced, and especially trees that are exposed to cumulative damage season after season are universally - around the world - in decline.

This process has been well known to foresters and agronomists for decades, and demonstrated in field observation and controlled fumigation experiments. They just don't want to publicize it, or even admit it, because the source is the emissions from industrial civilization itself. They would rather point to drought, insects, fungus and disease EVEN THOUGH it is well known that ozone debilitates plants causing their root systems to shrink as they allocate more energy to repairing damaged foliage, rendering them more vulnerable to drought and wind...AND impinges on their natural immunity to attacks from insects, disease and fungus, which exist precisely to break down dying trees, not destroy healthy trees.

Most of the trees that fell during Sandy were rotted inside. Photos here: http://witsendnj.blogspot.com/
Member Since: August 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
618. hydrus
6:08 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
The old Euro 120 hour..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
617. hydrus
6:05 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Nope. 12Z CMC really bombs this thing out and brings it even closer to the Northeast Coastline. This setup right here bring a 12 hour period of strong ENE and NE winds into the surge affected areas. Not a good situation if that panned out.

Terribly depressing is an understatement. I hope they can get people to safety before this weather event unfolds, or there may be more fatalities. Reconnecting power to some areas beforehand will aid in this.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
616. GTcooliebai
6:00 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
When they strike they seem strike in pairs. Frances and Jeanne come to mind.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
615. Grothar
6:00 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26477
614. ncstorm
5:56 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
The 12z CMC is starting to trend back west..





Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
613. LargoFl
5:56 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
NWS is doing a great job in getting the word out on this possible nor'easter next week, hope folks are listening...AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF MAINLY DRY BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEVELOPING COASTAL
STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION WITH RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AND
A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39186
612. MAweatherboy1
5:53 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
The disturbance mentioned in the East Pac's TWO has a floater up that labels it as an invest, but there's nothing in the ATCF file or Navy site... strange.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7836
610. MAweatherboy1
5:51 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT NOV 3 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ROSA...LOCATED ABOUT 985 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS
MEXICO.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7836
609. LargoFl
5:51 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Mount Holley NWS for next weeks storm........AFTER THAT, MID LEVEL ENERGY THAT AT INITIALIZATION TIME WAS BEING
KICKED OUT OF A VORTEX SOUTH OF ALASKA (AND IS VISIBLE ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY) IS FORECAST TO BE DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING AND TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY
TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z
ECMWF AND THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS ON THIS. BEYOND THAT, THERE IS
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING TO
OUR NORTH AND THAT THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL FORM A MID LEVEL LOW
THAT CUTS OFF SOMEWHERE AROUND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE
12Z AND 00Z ECMWF MOVE THE SYSTEM IN A TORTUOUSLY SLOW AND
ANNOYINGLY CONSISTENT MANNER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GFS RUNS
SHOW LESS CONSISTENCY: WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF, THE 18Z GFS RUN
WAS FURTHER EAST BUT NOT MUCH FASTER, AND THE 00Z RUN IS FASTER BUT
NOT MUCH FURTHER EAST. ALL FOUR HAVE AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW THAT
DEEPENS TO AROUND 990 MB AT OUR LATITUDE.

WE ARE VERY FAR OUT IN TIME, BUT THAT RIDGING TO THE NORTH GENERALLY
WOULD SUPPORT A SLOWER SOLUTION. OUR PRESENT FORECAST SEEMS LIKE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO OPERATIONAL MODELS AND CAME FROM A
COMBINATION OF THE PREVIOUS 00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WE
PREFER TO SEE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE WE START TO NUDGE THE FORECAST
IN A SPECIFIC DIRECTION, BUT OUR HUNCH AT THIS TIME IS THAT WE WILL
BE SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN A BIT. IF THE FORECAST TRACK DOESN`T
CHANGE SPATIALLY, THIS WOULD HAVE US FORECASTING A RELATIVELY
SLOW-MOVING NOR`EASTER SOMETIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS, TIDAL FLOODING
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW NORTHWEST ARE IN PLAY. REGARDING
THE TIDES, IT WOULD TAKE DEPARTURES OF ALMOST TWO FEET TO START
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AND ALMOST THREE FEET TO WARRANT A COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING. THE LATTER IS NOT OUTSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS POTENT AS SANDY, BUT A 990 MB LOW
MOVING UP NEAR THE COAST WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE SLOWER ECMWF IS TAKING THE SYSTEM AWAY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY, AND
THEN RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39186
608. Manhattancane
5:50 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


My favorite -- not media related, and really just funny -- is when I'm up in ME seeing family in the wintertime, and two snowflakes come down, and within, like, 30 seconds, there are a bazillion pickup trucks with their plows on scraping around everywhere you look. A flake hits the asphalt and it is *plowed*.

To be fair, those folks want to get paid, and I can't blame them, in rural ME -- not much work some places, especially in winter. It still makes me laugh a lot, though.


Wasn't that a commercial once? Two plowers race with plows scraping on the asphalt making sparks to pick up one flake.
Member Since: August 24, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
606. MAweatherboy1
5:48 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
The CMC is the most aggressive model on the Nor'Easter right now. The 12z run today develops a monster storm (962mb!) and sends it up the East Coast and over Cape Cod:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7836

Viewing: 655 - 605

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.