Moderate-strength Nor'easter may hit Sandy-devastated areas Wednesday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:16 PM GMT on November 02, 2012

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Storm-weary U.S. residents pounded by Superstorm Sandy may have a new storm to contend with next Wednesday: an early-season Nor'easter is expected to impact the mid-Atlantic and New England with strong winds and heavy rain. Our two top models, the European (ECMWF) and GFS (run by the National Weather Service), both predict that an area of low pressure will move off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada. The storm is predicted to intensify into a medium-strength Nor'easter with a central pressure of 992 mb by Wednesday afternoon, when it will be centered a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY. The European model, which did an exemplary job forecasting Hurricane Sandy, predicts a stronger storm that will stay just offshore and bring a 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 - 45 mph to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York on Wednesday morning and afternoon. The GFS model and 06Z NOGAPS model runs from 06Z (2 am EDT) this morning have a weaker storm that is farther offshore, with the main impact of the Nor'easter occurring Wednesday evening in coastal Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Maine. The Nor'easter will likely bring a swath of 2 - 4" of rain to the coast, and the potential for more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of the New England. The storm is still five days away, and five-day forecasts of the path and intensity of Nor'easters usually have large errors. Nevertheless, residents and relief workers in the region hit by Sandy should anticipate the possibility of the arrival on Wednesday of a moderate-strength Nor'easter with heavy rain, accompanied by high winds capable of driving a 1 - 2 foot storm surge with battering waves.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for Wednesday morning, November 7, 2012, from the 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the ECMWF model made on November 2, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (40 - 45 mph) are predicted to extend from coastal Maryland to the east tip of Long Island, NY.


Figure 2. Forecast track error for four of our top models used to predict Hurricane Sandy. The GFS model performed the best for 1 - 3 day forecasts, but the European (ECMWF) model far out-performed all models at longer-range 4 - 5 day forecasts. This may be due to the fact the model was able to successfully predict the timing of the arrival of a trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. that acted to steer Sandy to the north and then northwest. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.


Figure 3. Forecast track error for four of our top models used to predict Hurricane Sandy, for their runs that began at 00Z October 25, 2012. The GFDL and ECMWF models made great forecasts that correctly showed Sandy making landfall in Southern New Jersey in five days. The GFS and HWRF models made good 1 - 3 day forecasts, but failed to anticipate Sandy's northward turn towards the U.S. coast. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Links
Impressive loop of 1-minute visible satellite imagery spanning 6 days of Sandy's life.

A one-day time lapse video from a New York City webcam showing Sandy's impact on the city. It's eerie to see the city suddenly plunged into darkness.

First round of damage assessment aerial imagery collected by NOAA's National Geodetic Survey on Oct. 31 along the New Jersey coast.


Figure 4. Flooding in Haiti from Hurricane Sandy. Image credit: The Lambi Fund of Haiti.

Charities mobilize for Sandy
Sandy's death toll of 98 in the U.S. makes the storm one of the 30 most deadly hurricanes to affect the U.S.. The outpouring of charitable donations in the wake of the terrible storm has been great to see. NBC is hosting a benefit concert at 8 pm tonight (Friday), and the main owners of The Weather Channel have agreed to match donations of up to $1 million to the American Red Cross, with all donations to benefit people in the hard-hit areas of the U.S. To have your donation matched, please visit www.redcross.org/sandy, or text SANDY to 90999. I also recommend my favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org. They are focusing their response efforts exclusively on the post-Sandy needs of people with disabilities.Check out the Portlight blog to see what they're up to.

Sandy's greatest devastation occurred in Haiti, where rains of up to 20 inches in 24 hours unleashed rampaging flood waters that killed at least 54, left 200,000 homeless, wiped out thousand of acres of crops, and killed massive numbers of livestock. For impoverished families in Haiti still struggling to recover from the earthquake in 2010 and Hurricane Isaac in August, Sandy was devastating. These crops are the very essence of rural Haitian’s livelihoods, and there are fears widespread starvation will result. A disaster relief charity in Haiti that I've contributed to for many years, The Lambi Fund of Haiti, is seeking donations to help farmers purchase local seeds so that they can replant their crops in the wake of this latest terrible Haitian catastrophe.

I'll have an update this weekend on the coming Nor'easter.

Jeff Masters

Floods due to Sandy (WunderLecha)
The waters of Sagua la Grande river crossing the National highway in Ranchuelo, Cuba
Floods due to Sandy
Tree damage in Tucker County, W.V. (beaudodson)
Thousands of trees were damaged in West Virginia by the heavy/wet snow. Many were without power for days.
Tree damage in Tucker County, W.V.
Remnants of Sandy (stoneygirl)
These are a few of the incredible clouds associated with Hurricane Sandy. I am blessed because I didn't have any damage. Thank you God. Sending all my thoughts and prayers to NY and NJ where the devastation will take years to recover from.
Remnants of Sandy

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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Brigantine NJ
yes.. that entire north end was under 5 feet plus of water
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Brigantine NJ
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
Quoting pottery:
I've been thinking about the re-classification comments here over the past few days.

How about staying with the Shafir-Simpson 1-5 scale, but adding a 1-5 "destructive Potential" scale to that.

So, Storm Sandy...
Hurricane Cat. I
Destructive Potential 5 (or whatever)

I think the message would sink in....


I actually think there has been an effort (clunky at best) to give people a warning as to what kind of "destructive" capability a particular storm will have. For Sandy, the info was out there that the rain and wind damage would be minimal but that the surge damage would be high. I think they pretty much nailed it. Only problem is, few paid notice.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


so let me get this
you are located
in that picture
that TropicalAnalystwx13
posted of before and after
with a repaired brige
and full power restoration
and parents have already got food in
and your internet is up and running
is that correct
that picture is a town farther to my north who got it much much worse then brigantine even though the north end of brigantine is pretty much destroyed too just not to that extreme
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


so let me get this
you are located
in that picture
that TropicalAnalystwx13
posted of before and after
with a repaired brige
and full power restoration
and parents have already got food in
and your internet is up and running
is that correct
noooooooo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting EricGreen:
Dr. Masters wrote:

"The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada."

Sad to say, physics tells us that it's impossible to "pull" with a fluid, especially air. What happens is that the pressure differences push the air from higher to lower areas of pressure. The pressure is the result of gravity, which does "pull" the air to the surface. The densest air, usually the coldest, is pulled to the bottom of the atmosphere and during winter, the cold air masses flow toward the tropics from the Arctic, completing the circulation loop of warm air flowing toward the pole(s).

Sure, it's easiest to say to the average science idiot that that cold air is being "pulled", but that isn't the proper cause-and-effect relationship. Lots of "meteorologist" of the TV sort say this crap all the time, but it isn't correct and some college level texts miss the distinction as well. I would think that Dr. Masters would do better, but I suppose not, especially as he now works for the Weather Channel. The distinction may be very important when discussing climate change, as one result of a warmer Earth may be an increase in the strength of the tropic to pole circulation in Winter, thus more cold air flow on the return side of the loop.


Let's compare:

Dr. Masters: one succinct explanation that made even an "average science idiot" like me understand what may happen.

You: 8 sentences (two of them run-on, thus confusing to sort out through the mass of commas) in 2 paragraph...explaining the EXACT SAME THING. Your post even mentions the "pull" of cold air.

Love the slight of "working for TWC" too...how adult of you. I have respected Dr. Masters and his unofficial crew of bloggers for years. I find your condescending comments quite insulting.
Member Since: September 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
Quoting NJcat3cane:
nah they opened the bridge back up.. my family came back with more food and water and all that.. power was restored today thats why im back posting what actaully happened here.. clean up started yesterday and i got most of it done today.. other places in Brigantine it will take months to finish..on the main road theres like 3 feet of sand and that goes for many blocks all directions..i think most if not all the island has power back now


so let me get this
you are located
in that picture
that TropicalAnalystwx13
posted of before and after
with a repaired brige
and full power restoration
and parents have already got food in
and your internet is up and running
is that correct
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54338
I've been thinking about the re-classification comments here over the past few days.

How about staying with the Shafir-Simpson 1-5 scale, but adding a 1-5 "destructive Potential" scale to that.

So, Storm Sandy...
Hurricane Cat. I
Destructive Potential 5 (or whatever)

I think the message would sink in....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sar.. The wind gauge i ended up getting with your help haha did pretty good.. water didnt affect it and it held up good
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
why would planners allow zoning for homes there in the first place clear it turn it into a nice coastal wet land for wildlife and natural processes
u right about that KEEP! makes some since!
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Are you on the mainland now?
nah they opened the bridge back up.. my family came back with more food and water and all that.. power was restored today thats why im back posting what actaully happened here.. clean up started yesterday and i got most of it done today.. other places in Brigantine it will take months to finish..on the main road theres like 3 feet of sand and that goes for many blocks all directions..i think most if not all the island has power back now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
why would planners allow zoning for homes there in the first place clear it turn it into a nice coastal wet land for wildlife and natural processes

You're assuming there are planners and they actually enforce any regulations, if there are any. From what I've seen of the average construction of those beachfront homes, they were disasters waiting to happen.
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This is really nitpicky, but I'd like to suggest that Figures 2 and 3 for future storms use the same color for the same model. Anyway, my thoughts are with everyone who was affected by this. Living on the Gulf Coast, I know that disasters like this can tear people apart, but they can also bring communities together in unexpected ways.
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Quoting NJcat3cane:

Imagine what that kind of force does to the human body. It's not a pretty sight.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
why would planners allow zoning for homes there in the first place clear it turn it into a nice coastal wet land for wildlife and natural processes
Im sure in the next years to come they will fill that back in with sand and build more houses on it...
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Quoting lordhuracan01:
lordhuracan01
This is me, cleaning the damage from SANDY....




My home and my nephew and his old car...


Looks awful. Where are you located?
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Quoting NJcat3cane:
Our seawall here has thick steel railings now aftwe sandy parts of them are snapped in two and bent at near 90* angles..i can only imagine those force that took to bend and bend those railings


Are you on the mainland now?
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
Quoting NJcat3cane:
Our seawall here has thick steel railings now after sandy parts of them are snapped in two and bent at near 90* angles..i can only imagine the force that took to break and bend those railings
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Quoting mlkushner:


That's the bridge that connects the mainland to the barrier island, in Mantaloking (where 528 meets Rt 35).

Oh, man, now I really see the damage we were discussing the other day. It's way worse than I thought. :(
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Quoting bigwes6844:
thats just sickening!
why would planners allow zoning for homes there in the first place clear it turn it into a nice coastal wet land for wildlife and natural processes
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54338
Our seawall here has thick steel railings now aftwe sandy parts of them are snapped in two and bent at near 90* angles..i can only imagine those force that took to bend and bend those railings
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NJcat3cane:
ill be alright no one died here luckily we will rebuild better and stronger then before and move on.. Assuming another super storm doesnt barrel ashore in south jersey i should make it to 30 ha.

Ah, the optimism of youth. I was like that once, until I had a couple of near death experiences. :)
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


LIGHTS!

East of Spring/Broadway.

Cue the gridlock just around the block. :)
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Quoting sar2401:

Yep, you saw it go down, no doubt about it. If you're in your mid-20's, good luck. I hope you make it to 30.
ill be alright no one died here luckily we will rebuild better and stronger then before and move on.. Assuming another super storm doesnt barrel ashore in south jersey i should make it to 30 ha.
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Quoting Manhattancane:
Day zero subway map (thursday)

today

Do you have a link? Those maps are too small to show any detail of what's working and what isn't.
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LIGHTS!

East of Spring/Broadway.

http://live.nydailynews.com/Event/Tracking_Hurric ane_Sandy_2
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
Quoting NJcat3cane:
LBI? that happened in 62 there too


That's the bridge that connects the mainland to the barrier island, in Mantaloking (where 528 meets Rt 35).
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lordhuracan01
This is me, cleaning the damage from SANDY....




My home and my nephew and his old car...

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I agree the people who stayed are fools and i wasent asking to be rescued cuz i made the choice to say..the people who did get rescued are the ones who should have made the better choice.. they didnt belive forcast since irene was so weak here last year
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Man...


thats just sickening!
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Quoting NJcat3cane:
Mid 20's Parents didnt really have uch say. They wanted me to leave but i wasent missing this storm..been on this island my entire life and was staying to see it go down

Yep, you saw it go down, no doubt about it. If you're in your mid-20's, good luck. I hope you make it to 30.
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Quoting NJcat3cane:
Ehh i stayed with two friends who had no idea what was about to happen. i had a good idea it was gonna flood bad cuz it has before just not to bad since the perfect storm. But truthfully i could never imagine it being as bad as it was. would i stay next time? yes but should anyone else? hell no..the coast guard rescuses were amazing to see happen on my own street TWICE!. I had a plan though if the water got any higher.. my boat is tied up next to my house and if water started pouring into the house fast we were going threw my window right into the boat below..at the highest point of the water the boat was floating but never poured into the house since im raised about 5 feet off the ground luckily but the surrounding houses arent raised up at all and those were the rescuses and the destroyed houses

You ever been in a little boat with a storm surge and hurricane winds? It's no fun, no matter how much you like weather. Those Coast Guard rescues were for people who refused to leave, putting the rescurer's lives at risk. If you stay again, you may survive, but the person rescuing you might die...or you both might die. You need to rethink this and grow up some. Nothing is worth your own life, let alone possibly taking others with you.
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Mid 20's Parents didnt really have much say. They wanted me to leave but i wasent missing this storm..been on this island my entire life and was staying to see it go down
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Quoting sar2401:

Look, I helped you find a hand-held anemometer but I didn't think you'd be this foolish in how you used it. When you're under a mandatory evacuation order, do it! I can't believe your parents would have let you stay behind to see a hurricane at landfall. That might have been the last thing you ever saw.
Mid 20's Parents didnt really have uch say. They wanted me to leave but i wasent missing this storm..been on this island my entire life and was staying to see it go down
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Man...


LBI? that happened in 62 there too
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Man...




Sucks to be the person who's house is in the new inlet.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Man...



Oh my, that's terrible.
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Quoting NJcat3cane:
ya all thats correct.. i live on that really small island. We were under mandatory evac and my family and everyone left.. i stayed cuz i like weather and hurricanes and to see the storm in landfall..on the Google map imagine 5+ feet of water covering the entire north end,the golf course end, and thats what happen during sandy

Look, I helped you find a hand-held anemometer but I didn't think you'd be this foolish in how you used it. When you're under a mandatory evacuation order, do it! I can't believe your parents would have let you stay behind to see a hurricane at landfall. That might have been the last thing you ever saw.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



wow... I do too but that's life threatening... did you know the possible deadly consequences?
Ehh i stayed with two friends who had no idea what was about to happen. i had a good idea it was gonna flood bad cuz it has before just not to bad since the perfect storm. But truthfully i could never imagine it being as bad as it was. would i stay next time? yes but should anyone else? hell no..the coast guard rescuses were amazing to see happen on my own street TWICE!. I had a plan though if the water got any higher.. my boat is tied up next to my house and if water started pouring into the house fast we were going threw my window right into the boat below..at the highest point of the water the boat was floating but never poured into the house since im raised about 5 feet off the ground luckily but the surrounding houses arent raised up at all and those were the rescuses and the destroyed houses
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Man...


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gfs 18z hr 126



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54338
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Cheer for those awesome 3 models...
BRAVO!!!


Technically it's two models.

Black represents actual track. :P
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Quoting NJcat3cane:
ya all thats correct.. i live on that really small island. We were under mandatory evac and my family and everyone left.. i stayed cuz i like weather and hurricanes and to see the storm in landfall..on the Google map imagine 5 feet of water covering the entire north end,the golf course end, and thats what happen during sandy



wow... I do too but that's life threatening... did you know the possible deadly consequences?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Grothar:






you seen nothing 1st
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Had to google map Brigantine, NJ. Looks like this place lies on a barrier island that at its widest point (the golf course) is, barely, if even, a mile wide. Were you under a mandatory evacuation order? If so, what made you and/or your family stay instead of leave?
ya all thats correct.. i live on that really small island. We were under mandatory evac and my family and everyone left.. i stayed cuz i like weather and hurricanes and to see the storm in landfall..on the Google map imagine 5+ feet of water covering the entire north end,the golf course end, and thats what happen during sandy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Cheer for those awesome 3 models...
BRAVO!!!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting sar2401:

We can start with Mayor Bloomberg and work our way down from there. :)



Our electric crews from the south at least know to shut the power off when flood waters are coming in so nothing starts to burn.
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Quoting NJcat3cane:
If anyone saw that picture of the shark that was said to be swimming in the streets of Brigantine Beach NJ..Its FAKE ha..A friend of mine knows the dude who made it.. hes a computer nerd who has to much time on his hands


That image and dozens of others have been debunked or verified by Snopes.
Here's an article with a bunch of them: Link
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 397
Quoting NJcat3cane:
During the low tide i was able to wade threw chest deep water onto the golf course well inland in briganine nj thats near my house.. was clocking sustained 40 mph winds with peak gust at 52.2mph..this was a solid 6 hours before landfall happened though here.. im a positive i could have recored 74 mph wind gust but by the time wind got stronger as the storm got closer the water was way to deep to walk anywhere i had to tread back to my house before it got head high.
Had to google map Brigantine, NJ. Looks like this place lies on a barrier island that at its widest point (the golf course) is, barely, if even, a mile wide. Were you under a mandatory evacuation order? If so, what made you and/or your family stay instead of leave?
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18714

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.