Moderate-strength Nor'easter may hit Sandy-devastated areas Wednesday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:16 PM GMT on November 02, 2012

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Storm-weary U.S. residents pounded by Superstorm Sandy may have a new storm to contend with next Wednesday: an early-season Nor'easter is expected to impact the mid-Atlantic and New England with strong winds and heavy rain. Our two top models, the European (ECMWF) and GFS (run by the National Weather Service), both predict that an area of low pressure will move off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada. The storm is predicted to intensify into a medium-strength Nor'easter with a central pressure of 992 mb by Wednesday afternoon, when it will be centered a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY. The European model, which did an exemplary job forecasting Hurricane Sandy, predicts a stronger storm that will stay just offshore and bring a 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 - 45 mph to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York on Wednesday morning and afternoon. The GFS model and 06Z NOGAPS model runs from 06Z (2 am EDT) this morning have a weaker storm that is farther offshore, with the main impact of the Nor'easter occurring Wednesday evening in coastal Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Maine. The Nor'easter will likely bring a swath of 2 - 4" of rain to the coast, and the potential for more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of the New England. The storm is still five days away, and five-day forecasts of the path and intensity of Nor'easters usually have large errors. Nevertheless, residents and relief workers in the region hit by Sandy should anticipate the possibility of the arrival on Wednesday of a moderate-strength Nor'easter with heavy rain, accompanied by high winds capable of driving a 1 - 2 foot storm surge with battering waves.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for Wednesday morning, November 7, 2012, from the 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the ECMWF model made on November 2, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (40 - 45 mph) are predicted to extend from coastal Maryland to the east tip of Long Island, NY.


Figure 2. Forecast track error for four of our top models used to predict Hurricane Sandy. The GFS model performed the best for 1 - 3 day forecasts, but the European (ECMWF) model far out-performed all models at longer-range 4 - 5 day forecasts. This may be due to the fact the model was able to successfully predict the timing of the arrival of a trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. that acted to steer Sandy to the north and then northwest. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.


Figure 3. Forecast track error for four of our top models used to predict Hurricane Sandy, for their runs that began at 00Z October 25, 2012. The GFDL and ECMWF models made great forecasts that correctly showed Sandy making landfall in Southern New Jersey in five days. The GFS and HWRF models made good 1 - 3 day forecasts, but failed to anticipate Sandy's northward turn towards the U.S. coast. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Links
Impressive loop of 1-minute visible satellite imagery spanning 6 days of Sandy's life.

A one-day time lapse video from a New York City webcam showing Sandy's impact on the city. It's eerie to see the city suddenly plunged into darkness.

First round of damage assessment aerial imagery collected by NOAA's National Geodetic Survey on Oct. 31 along the New Jersey coast.


Figure 4. Flooding in Haiti from Hurricane Sandy. Image credit: The Lambi Fund of Haiti.

Charities mobilize for Sandy
Sandy's death toll of 98 in the U.S. makes the storm one of the 30 most deadly hurricanes to affect the U.S.. The outpouring of charitable donations in the wake of the terrible storm has been great to see. NBC is hosting a benefit concert at 8 pm tonight (Friday), and the main owners of The Weather Channel have agreed to match donations of up to $1 million to the American Red Cross, with all donations to benefit people in the hard-hit areas of the U.S. To have your donation matched, please visit www.redcross.org/sandy, or text SANDY to 90999. I also recommend my favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org. They are focusing their response efforts exclusively on the post-Sandy needs of people with disabilities.Check out the Portlight blog to see what they're up to.

Sandy's greatest devastation occurred in Haiti, where rains of up to 20 inches in 24 hours unleashed rampaging flood waters that killed at least 54, left 200,000 homeless, wiped out thousand of acres of crops, and killed massive numbers of livestock. For impoverished families in Haiti still struggling to recover from the earthquake in 2010 and Hurricane Isaac in August, Sandy was devastating. These crops are the very essence of rural Haitian’s livelihoods, and there are fears widespread starvation will result. A disaster relief charity in Haiti that I've contributed to for many years, The Lambi Fund of Haiti, is seeking donations to help farmers purchase local seeds so that they can replant their crops in the wake of this latest terrible Haitian catastrophe.

I'll have an update this weekend on the coming Nor'easter.

Jeff Masters

Floods due to Sandy (WunderLecha)
The waters of Sagua la Grande river crossing the National highway in Ranchuelo, Cuba
Floods due to Sandy
Tree damage in Tucker County, W.V. (beaudodson)
Thousands of trees were damaged in West Virginia by the heavy/wet snow. Many were without power for days.
Tree damage in Tucker County, W.V.
Remnants of Sandy (stoneygirl)
These are a few of the incredible clouds associated with Hurricane Sandy. I am blessed because I didn't have any damage. Thank you God. Sending all my thoughts and prayers to NY and NJ where the devastation will take years to recover from.
Remnants of Sandy

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Quoting charlottefl:
Been looking through video clips, this just broke my heart....

Link

Death toll has now risen to 109..
Horrible...Sick to my stomach.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 24766

I can't believe they're using this tunnel today, they readied a thousands of feet long, 100 feet under the river tunnel in 3 days (3 days ago shown).

The "Nov 3[rd] am" subway map

This is just steps from the Wall Street Bull statue. Nevertheless, this station will not be stopped at.
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'Sons of Anarchy' star: Storm aftermath 'a lot worse than how it's being portrayed by media'Link
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Rosa's not giving up. All the thunderstorms she formed yesterday got blown away or dissipated last night, but she's somehow formed a few more over her center. They're already getting pushed away though, there's a ton of shear where she is right now.

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Quoting Barefootontherocks:
I guessed about that in my current wunderground blog titled "I didn't expect this." She and many others on Staten Island possibly did not understand what storm surge flooding can do. If they did they'd have left, and failing that, they'd have been on their roofs, not in basements and, in the tragic situation of this mom, trying to drive away from the rushing water. As you may also have read, several others trapped in basements drowned when the surge flood arrived at Staten Island.


Yeah, it seems like a whole lot of folks didn't really see what was coming at them. And to be honest, I can't really blame them that much -- they hadn't done this before, it's hard to know what's hype and what isn't, and the immediate effects here were worse than even I was expecting (and I'm no optimist with these things, I tend toward the "assume the worst and prepare for that.")

Most people don't go directly to the NHC. Most people glance at the weather on their local news, and that's about it.

Folks should clearly have evacuated, but they didn't. Their mistake doesn't make the situations they're in now any less heartbreaking.

To some degree, I think that a lot of people are so sort of jaded about the "impending doom" stories smacking at them from the sensationalized teevees constantly that they tend to disbelieve all of it. Add that to our general human tendency to really think "it won't happen to me," or "it's never happened before (so it won't!)" and you wind up with some awful if it really _does_ go nasty. We've all got a lot of learning to do, just in realizing that sometimes, it really _is_ that bad.

And honestly, having been through any number of storms up in NE that really _were_ hypetastic (you'd think the world was going to end because it snowed a few inches,) I can understand where some of it comes from. I've also been through some really nasty ones, or some that genuinely _could_ have been nasty but turned out not so bad (glad for the warnings, either way). But it's hard to tell sometimes, when the news tells you daily that we're all going to die from killer bees and hot dogs and cancer and homicides and tainted drugs and cholesterol and...

I mean, some of the things in it may be serious, but it gets so hard to tell which, without doing some digging.

Regardless, damn, do I feel for the people who misjudged and have lost lives or loved ones, and I wish we could get better at collectively learning these sorts of things without having people experience so much terrible suffering first.
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The new GFS for the coming Nor'Easter is in. It's noticeably faster getting the storm in position this run, and shows a worst case scenario track with the center passing just east of the NY/NJ coasts, creating a strong onshore wind and heavy rain:



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its safe too say hurricane season has come too a closes


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Quoting 7544:
nice blob shaping up down in the caribiean are we on a blob alert yet ?



no
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546. 7544
nice blob shaping up down in the caribiean are we on a blob alert yet ?
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Quoting charlottefl:
I wish there was a way to help the general public understand just how serious storm surge is, especially along the immediate coastline. I know some people understand and therefore evacuate, but I'm not sure everyone gets the message quite so clearly, just wondering if there is a better way to convey the seriousness of it to the average american...
There is. It's a great movie script I wrote. Family-oriented and takes ya time traveling to the mother of all storm surge knowledge - the 1900 Great Galveston Storm. Anyone who saw the movie would understand. Trouble is, no one's come along who has the $150 million it would take to make the film. lol
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Quoting charlottefl:
I wish there was a way to help the general public understand just how serious storm surge is, especially along the immediate coastline. I know some people understand and therefore evacuate, but I'm not sure everyone gets the message quite so clearly, just wondering if there is a better way to convey the seriousness of it to the average american...
You're so right. There always seems to be a number of folks who don't understand the threat with a storm surge. What the media has repeated for many years is, "Hide from the wind, but run from the water".
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Read the story about the Staten Island mother whose house had rising water and she tried to escape with her two young boys and they were pulled from her arms. After searching frantically, she sheltered on the porch of an empty house all through Sandy. The mother in me cries for her, but also wonders why the hell she hadn't left.
I guessed about that in my current wunderground blog titled "I didn't expect this." She and many others on Staten Island possibly did not understand what storm surge flooding can do. If they did they'd have left, and failing that, they'd have been on their roofs, not in basements and, in the tragic situation of this mom, trying to drive away from the rushing water. As you may also have read, several others trapped in basements drowned when the surge flood arrived at Staten Island.
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I wish there was a way to help the general public understand just how serious storm surge is, especially along the immediate coastline. I know some people understand and therefore evacuate, but I'm not sure everyone gets the message quite so clearly, just wondering if there is a better way to convey the seriousness of it to the average american...
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from our NWS, Wilmington, NC-they going with the Euro along with the HPC

HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD HELPS CREATE CONDITIONS
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG FRONT STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUE INTO WED.
HOWEVER DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE COMPLICATES TIMING
AND RAINFALL/WIND POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SLOWER...SHOWING
A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A DEEPER LOW OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. 00Z GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DELAYS SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF
THE LOW UNTIL IT IS OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/NJ COAST. PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND HPC RELIED ON THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT. AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS APPEAR TO BE SPLIT BETWEEN
THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL COME TOGETHER PERFECTLY AS FAR AS STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS CONCERNED. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A DECENT
TEMP GRADIENT WITH THE GULF STREAM ADDING ABUNDANT MOISTURE WHILE
ENHANCING TEMP CONTRAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. ALOFT STRONG MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE END RESULT IS A SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE
LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH STRONG WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LATER WED AND WED NIGHT THE NOR EASTER WILL BE
MOVING NORTH...REPLACED BY DEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE AND MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVE OVERHEAD.
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Been looking through video clips, this just broke my heart....

Link

Death toll has now risen to 109..
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This is an old run, but worth showing.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 24766
Yesterday Models called for a 990 or 992 Low. Today we are down the the 980 range. I hope the trend does not continue otherwise they will end up with a 965 low that will cause huge problems
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

It's coming. The models actually show the energy for this eventual nor'easter at 500 mb breaking off from the low that is currently in the Gulf of Alaska.

Link
I see your 500mb ECMWF and raise you a 06GFS Sea level pressure. And this is non-tropical along the east coast?

Java animation from FSU. Click FWD button to activate.
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979 LOW about 60 miles off Jersey Coast will be very damaging. If this pans out I expect 50mph winds with 60mph gusts. Considering all the dunes are gone flooding will occur again. Power outages are likely.
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Quoting Grothar:


I've already been making my calls up there. I am afraid that if the Jet stream stays in this pattern, there may be more.
I agree. Storms will probably increase in size and intensity due to the seasonal shift.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 24766
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1031 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012

NYZ072-032015-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
1031 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE MORNING.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
.TUESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...RAIN LIKELY. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE
OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. BREEZY WITH LOWS AROUND 40. CHANCE
OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

$$
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Quoting Grothar:


I've already been making my calls up there. I am afraid that if the Jet stream stays in this pattern, there may be more.
MORNING GUYS, Just called my aunt in CONN and told her what might be coming again..all i heard was groans and a oh no..folks up in the northeast just cant get over what hit them and more coming just adds to the misery
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Quoting hydrus:
Mornin ancient one. Seems the people hit by Sandy will have to deal with a storm while trying to recover.


I've already been making my calls up there. I am afraid that if the Jet stream stays in this pattern, there may be more.
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ATTENTION-IMPORTANT MESSAGE FOR ALL HIT BY SANDY......THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE CENTERS
FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION (CDC):

IN THE WAKE OF SANDY...IT IS IMPORTANT FOR CITIZENS TO REMEMBER
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE AND HEALTH AND THAT
OF YOUR FAMILY:

* DRINK CLEAN...SAFE WATER AND EAT SAFE...UNCONTAMINATED FOOD

* KEEP GENERATORS OUTSIDE AT LEAST 25 FT FROM DOORS...WINDOWS AND
VENTS

* DO NOT GRILL INSIDE YOUR HOME...THE FUMES CAN KILL

* NEVER TOUCH A DOWNED POWER LINE OR ANYTHING TOUCHING ONE

* USE 1 CUP OF BLEACH FOR EACH GALLON OF WATER TO REMOVE MOLD

* NEVER MIX BLEACH AND AMMONIA...THE FUMES CAN KILL

* WASHING YOUR HANDS PREVENTS ILLNESS

* SEEK HELP IF HAVING TROUBLE COPING

FOR MORE LIFE SAVING HEALTH RELATED INFORMATION CALL THE CDC AT
800-232-4636...TTY 888-232-6348. HTTP://EMERGENCY.CDC.GOV/DISASTERS/
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:0
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Oh lordy, not again. All of the models show a nor'easter with sub 980mb pressure approaching New York City. Fortunately, it will be no where near as intense as Hurricane Sandy was, but it does nothing but exacerbate the situation.

In other news, the cost from Hurricane Sandy appears to be climbing further, over 50 billion. That makes Sandy the 2nd most destructive hurricane to hit the United States by a substantial margin over Hurricanes Ike and Andrew. The death toll in the United States is up to 109.
I swear every time there is a meteorological record I believe will stay on the books for a week gets broken or smashed..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 24766
Quoting Grothar:
The FIM winds in kts.


Mornin ancient one. Seems the people hit by Sandy will have to deal with a storm while trying to recover.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 24766
Read the story about the Staten Island mother whose house had rising water and she tried to escape with her two young boys and they were pulled from her arms. After searching frantically, she sheltered on the porch of an empty house all through Sandy. The mother in me cries for her, but also wonders why the hell she hadn't left.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

It's coming. The models actually show the energy for this eventual nor'easter at 500 mb breaking off from the low that is currently in the Gulf of Alaska.

Link
gee those poor people up there
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Quoting Grothar:
ECMWF 126 HOURS

and think about this, most without power are the area's where the lines are above ground..now any that are fixed..might come DOWN again in this next storm..geez
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I would guess that the next storm will be a major concern for folks hit by Sandy..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 24766
The FIM winds in kts.


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Oh lordy, not again. All of the models show a nor'easter with sub 980mb pressure approaching New York City. Fortunately, it will be no where near as intense as Hurricane Sandy was, but it does nothing but exacerbate the situation.

In other news, the cost from Hurricane Sandy appears to be climbing further, over 50 billion. That makes Sandy the 2nd most destructive hurricane to hit the United States by a substantial margin over Hurricanes Ike and Andrew. The death toll in the United States is up to 109.
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ECMWF 126 HOURS

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Good morning. Unfortunately it looks like a fairly bad Nor'Easter coming up for areas hit by Sandy. It certainly won't be anything close to as bad as Sandy, but it looks like a stronger than average East Coast storm.

GFS:



Euro:

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Quoting 1900hurricane:

It's coming. The models actually show the energy for this eventual nor'easter at 500 mb breaking off from the low that is currently in the Gulf of Alaska.

Link

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Quoting LargoFl:
still no sign of that coming nor'easter storm the models are predicting.................................

It's coming. The models actually show the energy for this eventual nor'easter at 500 mb breaking off from the low that is currently in the Gulf of Alaska.

Link
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Ask any statistician and I'm sure they would agree with me. Same with Ike: for all intents and purposes, it was a Category 3 hurricane; the radar and satellite presentation definitely supported it. Officially, however, the storm went down in the record books as a Category 2.

Again, I get what you're saying, but facts are facts, and statistics are amongst facts.


Personally, I would say that the Heart goes out of Science the instant that the scientist values his figures and theories more than the reality that they are meant to model.

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Good morning everyone, I have a great weather start to a four day weekend. Rosa is not in good shape at all. There is very little convection near the center due to high wind shear. This should be one of Rosa's last days.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Atlantic TWO out already...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 030523
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

Slow day at the office?
Hopefully slow till next season,, even though sometimes mother natures is able to "hide' little surprises...
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GEFS model spread in 90 hours...............
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Folks in the coastal Carolina's may want to be watching your local warnings in about 84 hours....GFS at 87 hours
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SANDY'S AFTERMATH: LIVE UPDATES HERE - Power back in most of Manhattan by Saturday, but outer boroughs are being left in the dark - and plunging into chaos

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news#ixzz2BANy29zm
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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