Moderate-strength Nor'easter may hit Sandy-devastated areas Wednesday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:16 PM GMT on November 02, 2012

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Storm-weary U.S. residents pounded by Superstorm Sandy may have a new storm to contend with next Wednesday: an early-season Nor'easter is expected to impact the mid-Atlantic and New England with strong winds and heavy rain. Our two top models, the European (ECMWF) and GFS (run by the National Weather Service), both predict that an area of low pressure will move off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada. The storm is predicted to intensify into a medium-strength Nor'easter with a central pressure of 992 mb by Wednesday afternoon, when it will be centered a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY. The European model, which did an exemplary job forecasting Hurricane Sandy, predicts a stronger storm that will stay just offshore and bring a 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 - 45 mph to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York on Wednesday morning and afternoon. The GFS model and 06Z NOGAPS model runs from 06Z (2 am EDT) this morning have a weaker storm that is farther offshore, with the main impact of the Nor'easter occurring Wednesday evening in coastal Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Maine. The Nor'easter will likely bring a swath of 2 - 4" of rain to the coast, and the potential for more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of the New England. The storm is still five days away, and five-day forecasts of the path and intensity of Nor'easters usually have large errors. Nevertheless, residents and relief workers in the region hit by Sandy should anticipate the possibility of the arrival on Wednesday of a moderate-strength Nor'easter with heavy rain, accompanied by high winds capable of driving a 1 - 2 foot storm surge with battering waves.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for Wednesday morning, November 7, 2012, from the 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the ECMWF model made on November 2, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (40 - 45 mph) are predicted to extend from coastal Maryland to the east tip of Long Island, NY.


Figure 2. Forecast track error for four of our top models used to predict Hurricane Sandy. The GFS model performed the best for 1 - 3 day forecasts, but the European (ECMWF) model far out-performed all models at longer-range 4 - 5 day forecasts. This may be due to the fact the model was able to successfully predict the timing of the arrival of a trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. that acted to steer Sandy to the north and then northwest. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.


Figure 3. Forecast track error for four of our top models used to predict Hurricane Sandy, for their runs that began at 00Z October 25, 2012. The GFDL and ECMWF models made great forecasts that correctly showed Sandy making landfall in Southern New Jersey in five days. The GFS and HWRF models made good 1 - 3 day forecasts, but failed to anticipate Sandy's northward turn towards the U.S. coast. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Links
Impressive loop of 1-minute visible satellite imagery spanning 6 days of Sandy's life.

A one-day time lapse video from a New York City webcam showing Sandy's impact on the city. It's eerie to see the city suddenly plunged into darkness.

First round of damage assessment aerial imagery collected by NOAA's National Geodetic Survey on Oct. 31 along the New Jersey coast.


Figure 4. Flooding in Haiti from Hurricane Sandy. Image credit: The Lambi Fund of Haiti.

Charities mobilize for Sandy
Sandy's death toll of 98 in the U.S. makes the storm one of the 30 most deadly hurricanes to affect the U.S.. The outpouring of charitable donations in the wake of the terrible storm has been great to see. NBC is hosting a benefit concert at 8 pm tonight (Friday), and the main owners of The Weather Channel have agreed to match donations of up to $1 million to the American Red Cross, with all donations to benefit people in the hard-hit areas of the U.S. To have your donation matched, please visit www.redcross.org/sandy, or text SANDY to 90999. I also recommend my favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org. They are focusing their response efforts exclusively on the post-Sandy needs of people with disabilities.Check out the Portlight blog to see what they're up to.

Sandy's greatest devastation occurred in Haiti, where rains of up to 20 inches in 24 hours unleashed rampaging flood waters that killed at least 54, left 200,000 homeless, wiped out thousand of acres of crops, and killed massive numbers of livestock. For impoverished families in Haiti still struggling to recover from the earthquake in 2010 and Hurricane Isaac in August, Sandy was devastating. These crops are the very essence of rural Haitian’s livelihoods, and there are fears widespread starvation will result. A disaster relief charity in Haiti that I've contributed to for many years, The Lambi Fund of Haiti, is seeking donations to help farmers purchase local seeds so that they can replant their crops in the wake of this latest terrible Haitian catastrophe.

I'll have an update this weekend on the coming Nor'easter.

Jeff Masters

Floods due to Sandy (WunderLecha)
The waters of Sagua la Grande river crossing the National highway in Ranchuelo, Cuba
Floods due to Sandy
Tree damage in Tucker County, W.V. (beaudodson)
Thousands of trees were damaged in West Virginia by the heavy/wet snow. Many were without power for days.
Tree damage in Tucker County, W.V.
Remnants of Sandy (stoneygirl)
These are a few of the incredible clouds associated with Hurricane Sandy. I am blessed because I didn't have any damage. Thank you God. Sending all my thoughts and prayers to NY and NJ where the devastation will take years to recover from.
Remnants of Sandy

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Washington dc forecast for next week..........A STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE WEEK. GUIDANCE STILL DIVERGES ON SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS
POSSIBLE STORM SYSTEM. TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE JETSTREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OTHER IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...MAY PHASE
TOGETHER TO DEVELOP COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IF
THESE SYSTEMS PHASE TOGETHER QUICK ENOUGH...THEN COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW TO THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME. IF THE SYSTEMS DO NOT PHASE TOGETHER IN TIME...THEN LOW
PRESSURE WILL NOT STRENGTHEN ENOUGH IN TIME TO IMPACT THE
MID-ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUITY
FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
will this be a snow event or a rain event for the E cost?

It will be rain for the coast and quite a ways inland (including all the areas hard hit by Sandy) with snow possible across interior areas, especially higher elevations.
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Quoting hydrus:
ECMWF windmap 120 hours..not good..
its going to be yet another story nasty day up there alright..all the models are showing it
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Quoting Tazmanian:
will this be a snow event or a rain event for the E cost?
I don't know, Taz, because I haven't looked. But if you check the 500 mb map on the models, the 5400 thickness line is kind of considered the dividing line between rain and snow.

On the map hydrus just posted at comment 596, you can see the 5400 line in yellow dipping down, indicating snow (potential) North of that line.
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ECMWF windmap 120 hours..not good..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22727
Looks relatively tranquil today..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22727
Four days have passed since Sandy hit, and survivors pleaded for basic necessities.

"We're freezing. Bottom line is that we're so cold (be)cause we have nothing -- no electricity, no gas," said Staten Island resident Michele Belloli.
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New GFS..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22727
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Most of the sources I've seen now show Hurricane Sandy's damage total will be around $50 billion. After further investigation, this will make it the fifth costliest natural disaster in United States history, and would've made it the second costliest hurricane in USA history.

As I said yesterday afternoon though, the storm will not officially go down as the second costliest hurricane in United States history, as Sandy was not tropical at landfall...it was extratropical.

Obviously that doesn't take away the effects of the storm.

The United States death toll is up to 109 this afternoon, bringing the storm's overall fatality number up to 181. If Sandy would have made landfall as a tropical cyclone, it would currently rank 25th on the list of deadliest United States hurricanes.


Yes it would, and is, as it was still Sandy that caused the damage, regardless of it's status as a post-tropical cyclone.
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I hope this pattern continues through out the winter.It would certainly increase our chances of snow.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17856
im sorry for all the posts but some things need to be told..Two big-hearted firefighters took a break from dousing fires to flip 500 burgers and hot dogs for Far Rockaway residents impacted by the storm.

Kenny Hoch, of Engine 292 and John Basquez, of Engine 324, were temporarily assigned to work in Far Rockaway after Sandy hit.

"When we got here, it looked like a war zone," Hoch said. "It really hit home and put things into persepective."

The two men dug into their pockets and bought over $300 worth of food and drinks, firing up a barbecue grill from 11 a.m. to 6 p.m., on Beach 96th Street and Beach 116th Street.

"We're firemen, we help as many people as we can," Basquez said. "These people really need it."

Local resident Kathleen Byrne also pitched in to help. "Just keeping crowd control," she said.

Meanwhile hungry residents savored the warm meals. "We feel like we are not alone," said Teresa Santos, 39, who weathered out the storm in her apartment.

"This shows there is still hope for us. People have not lost their spirit because these good men are helping us get through these difficult conditions."
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New Jersey's gas crunch in the wake of Hurricane Sandy has become so severe that state officials are implementing gas rationing for passenger vehicles in the counties hardest hit by the storm
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Quoting NJcat3cane:
not a clue if its farther north then AC on the coastline.. it was most likely destroyed
ok thanks
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Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:
Man, it's gonna be cold on a lot of folks who have nothing.

Does anybody know if there's, like, a coat drive or anything? Blankets? I mean, no small number of folks have lost a lot of their stuff, and it's not easy to move those sorts of supplies in very well on this kind of time frame.
im sure the red cross etc is there already along with all the other aid organizations..we must'nt forget to give blood if you can, lots of people up there surely need it
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Most of the sources I've seen now show Hurricane Sandy's damage total will be around $50 billion. After further investigation, this will make it the fifth costliest natural disaster in United States history, and would've made it the second costliest hurricane in USA history.

As I said yesterday afternoon though, the storm will not officially go down as the second costliest hurricane in United States history, as Sandy was not tropical at landfall...it was extratropical.

Obviously that doesn't take away the effects of the storm.

The United States death toll is up to 109 this afternoon, bringing the storm's overall fatality number up to 181. If Sandy would have made landfall as a tropical cyclone, it would currently rank 25th on the list of deadliest United States hurricanes.
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Man, it's gonna be cold on a lot of folks who have nothing.

Does anybody know if there's, like, a coat drive or anything? Blankets? I mean, no small number of folks have lost a lot of their stuff, and it's not easy to move those sorts of supplies in very well on this kind of time frame.
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Quoting LargoFl:
how did cresskill NJ fare in this storm?
not a clue if its farther north then AC on the coastline.. it was most likely destroyed
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Nam at 84 hours.....................
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will this be a snow event or a rain event for the E cost?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting NJcat3cane:
Its bad up here in NJ. I uploaded some pics yesterday from Brigantine NJ i stayed during sandy.. FLooding was bad pics dont do it justice but they show the impacts. Pics are from before the peak AM high tide PM high tide was mich high about 4+ feet everywhere
how did cresskill NJ fare in this storm?
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Its bad up here in NJ. I uploaded some pics yesterday from Brigantine NJ i stayed during sandy.. FLooding was bad pics dont do it justice but they show the impacts. Pics are from before the peak AM high tide PM high tide was mich high about 4+ feet everywhere
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and in the midst of disaster, we have our Hero's who I hope will be recognized for their bravery in the face of extreme danger when this is all over up there.......


Upper East Side Man Hailed as Hero for Saving Taxi Driver from Drowning



Jon Candelaria, 25, waded into chest deep flood waters during Hurricane Sandy to carry a man to safety.


Read more: http://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/manhattan/upper-ea st-side#ixzz2BBF5Zwqf
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Quoting Manhattancane:


I remember how it was for only a few inches of snow. The media really is irresponsible and should only be showing the rational amount of excitement. But it's money.


My favorite -- not media related, and really just funny -- is when I'm up in ME seeing family in the wintertime, and two snowflakes come down, and within, like, 30 seconds, there are a bazillion pickup trucks with their plows on scraping around everywhere you look. A flake hits the asphalt and it is *plowed*.

To be fair, those folks want to get paid, and I can't blame them, in rural ME -- not much work some places, especially in winter. It still makes me laugh a lot, though.
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The GFS is coming into line with the EURO on this one. It has moved significantly closer to the coast than the earlier run.



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Hello guys...nice to be back here but Im leaving soon

Such an argue I had overnight with this guy kinda wore me out
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For those folks in nyc in the midst of that gas shortage,help is one the way according to the ny daily news, the defense dept is send millions of gallons of gas to help ease that shortage...people need that gas for the generators etc..good luck up there folks
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this from the weather channel.............A storm system will develop over the Southeast Tuesday and swing northward just off the East Coast from the Mid-Atlantic through New England in the Wednesday through Thursday time frame. It is still very early in the forecast process to discuss details with high confidence but the general impacts will include another round of brisk winds, rainfall and chilly temperatures for the recovery areas along the coast. For planning purposes at this point I am looking at winds in the 25 to 30 mph range during Wednesday along the New Jersey and New York coast. Early rainfall forecast for the Tuesday through Thursday time frame are in the range of 1 to 2 inches for immediate coastal areas. I caution though that this forecast could change. Farther inland from the Poconos through Catskills and into New England higher elevations could be in line for snowfall. Again it is too early to discuss snowfall amounts with confidence but I can say that the snow will be a wet, heavy variety since temperatures will be near the freezing mark. This will not be a major snow event but depending on the model we could see a few inches of snow. This system will not be anywhere as strong or impactful as Sandy. In simple terms, at this point we do not expect the impacts to "break anything that is not already broken". However the combination of weather impacts will add insult to injury for the recovery process along the East Coast. Secondly, we are still 4 days out from the main impacts and much can still change with the evolution of a system whose ingredients are still off the Pacific Coast. It is imperative therefore to pay close attention to updated forecast as more information becomes available.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Before Irene they had that show about what would happen if a Cat 3 hit NYC. I think they should have done the same for Sandy, or played bits of it on the news, perhaps some people who didn't leave might have. And maybe I'm dreaming. But it breaks my heart to read of deaths that could have been prevented. Inexperience played a huge part in this disaster.
yes it did, i dont think anyone up there ever figured it would be this bad, no one did.
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Before Irene they had that show about what would happen if a Cat 3 hit NYC. I think they should have done the same for Sandy, or played bits of it on the news, perhaps some people who didn't leave might have. And maybe I'm dreaming. But it breaks my heart to read of deaths that could have been prevented. Inexperience played a huge part in this disaster.
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Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


I just hope we all get better at learning from seeing it, instead of everyplace having to go through it before people in other areas really get it.

Here, we aren't near the ocean, but we are protected by shabby levees and are at high risk for catastrophic flooding, and I cannot tell you how many blank stares -- even from generally well-informed people -- I get, when I talk about the flood maps and the timing involved, why folks in some neighborhoods should have a plan and be prepared to have to leave quickly.

"In this neighborhood, you'd have a few hours to get out, and that (hugely populated) neighborhood up there would have ~30 minutes before it was flooded to the rooftops" -- they've never heard such a thing. Public info, but they haven't looked. They blink at me.

"It can't happen here" is a strong human fallacy, and I desperately hope we all get over it without just continuous pain to real people as the only way we learn.


Yeah, that's what I guess I was trying to say earlier. I think maybe we need to start using stronger language, and more graphic maybe even morbid references when it comes to conveying how deadly storm surge is. I get the same response from a lot of people, they've never seen it here therefore "it can't happen here". It can, and eventually it probably will....
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Staten Island - 20 still missing, police sources say.

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/staten_island/ borough_that_nyc_forgot_RFyV3Z55HcTM7iqgcRsWzH
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


I just hope we all get better at learning from seeing it, instead of everyplace having to go through it before people in other areas really get it.

Here, we aren't near the ocean, but we are protected by shabby levees and are at high risk for catastrophic flooding, and I cannot tell you how many blank stares -- even from generally well-informed people -- I get, when I talk about the flood maps and the timing involved, why folks in some neighborhoods should have a plan and be prepared to have to leave quickly.

"In this neighborhood, you'd have a few hours to get out, and that (hugely populated) neighborhood up there would have ~30 minutes before it was flooded to the rooftops" -- they've never heard such a thing. Public info, but they haven't looked. They blink at me.

"It can't happen here" is a strong human fallacy, and I desperately hope we all get over it without just continuous pain to real people as the only way we learn.
yep your 100% right there
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I see that lil blob in the south carribean is still there..
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Quoting LargoFl:
no need now..the whole world just witnessed what storm surge can do..picture after picture, night after night..the horrible truth of what storm surge can do......ME myself..in a hurricane i always..until now..watched for the winds..never the water...from now on i sure will


I just hope we all get better at learning from seeing it, instead of everyplace having to go through it before people in other areas really get it.

Here, we aren't near the ocean, but we are protected by shabby levees and are at high risk for catastrophic flooding, and I cannot tell you how many blank stares -- even from generally well-informed people -- I get, when I talk about the flood maps and the timing involved, why folks in some neighborhoods should have a plan and be prepared to have to leave quickly.

"In this neighborhood, you'd have a few hours to get out, and that (hugely populated) neighborhood up there would have ~30 minutes before it was flooded to the rooftops" -- they've never heard such a thing. Public info, but they haven't looked. They blink at me.

"It can't happen here" is a strong human fallacy, and I desperately hope we all get over it without just continuous pain to real people as the only way we learn.
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Quoting Progster:


For Staten Island, i think it will prove in the post analysis to be a deadly combination of storm surge and windwave/swell that produced the extreme coastal damage on the eastern shore of the Island. Given that NY harbor is open to the east between Sandy Hook and Rockaway point, and that storm surge elevated the bay by 10 or 12 feet, 15-20 feet deep water would have extended to just offshore the "normal" coastline at the height of the storm (and of course much deeper just a little further offshore). Storm significant waves at the NY harbor entrance buoy were 30 ft + at the height of Sandy, and I suspect nearly that height of wave made it more or less intact to the Staten island eastern shore.

NY harbor bathymetry: Link


Well I think some people think I can deal with the rising water, but I think a lot of those same people forget about the large battering waves on top of the surge. That's what does the real damage. Even a well constructed home being hit head on with 20-25 ft waves is not gonna survive. Water weighs ~8 lb per gallon. Just think about the weight of 20-25 feet of water. There aren't many buildings that would even stand a chance against that.
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Quoting charlottefl:


I've known about the surge issue for a long time. As a matter of fact ever since I was a kid I've been telling people how bad surge can be. That's why although I stayed in town during Charley I was in a well constructed building, several miles inland, 4 stories tall. We at least had the ability to be on a higher floor if we needed to be. Had I known it was going to turn so sharply I would have been further inland, but none the less, had we gotten a 20ft surge, I knew we would be ok. Luckily we didn't.
I bet that sure is scary alright..people all over now..have a different prespective on even a cat-1 hurricane..each one is different, each can affect you and yours differently so we must as always..prepare for the worst it can throw at us..and if its less..we came thru it ok...
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Quoting Progster:


For Staten Island, i think it will prove in the post analysis to be a deadly combination of storm surge and windwave/swell that produced the extreme coastal damage on the eastern shore of the Island. Given that NY harbor is open to the east between Sandy Hook and Rockaway point, and that storm surge elevated the bay by 10 or 12 feet, 15-20 feet deep water would have extended to just offshore the "normal" coastline at the height of the storm (and of course much deeper just a little further offshore). Storm significant waves at the NY harbor entrance buoy were 30 ft + at the height of Sandy, and I suspect nearly that height of wave made it more or less intact to the Staten island eastern shore.

NY harbor bathymetry: Link
Thank you for your reply.
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A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO
DIG INTO THE BASE OF EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE SE STATES TUESDAY AND
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
RAPID AND STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST LATE TUESDAY WITH
THE DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING SLOWLY NORTH ALONG OR JUST OFF OF
THE NC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
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Quoting LargoFl:
no need now..the whole world just witnessed what storm surge can do..picture after picture, night after night..the horrible truth of what storm surge can do......ME myself..in a hurricane i always..until now..watched for the winds..never the water...from now on i sure will


I've known about the surge issue for a long time. As a matter of fact ever since I was a kid I've been telling people how bad surge can be. That's why although I stayed in town during Charley I was in a well constructed building, several miles inland, 4 stories tall. We at least had the ability to be on a higher floor if we needed to be. Had I known it was going to turn so sharply I would have been further inland, but none the less, had we gotten a 20ft surge, I knew we would be ok. Luckily we didn't.
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551. LurkyMcLurkerson 4:18 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Thanks for the reply. I can't tell if you agree or disagree with me, but it doesn't matter.

Those who know me well know where my heart lies in the picture of storms and storm surge flooding. I spent seven years off and on creating a means to help the public understand.

What else I have to say about this storm is in my own wu blog.
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:
I guessed about that in my current wunderground blog titled "I didn't expect this." She and many others on Staten Island possibly did not understand what storm surge flooding can do. If they did they'd have left, and failing that, they'd have been on their roofs, not in basements and, in the tragic situation of this mom, trying to drive away from the rushing water. As you may also have read, several others trapped in basements drowned when the surge flood arrived at Staten Island.


For Staten Island, i think it will prove in the post analysis to be a deadly combination of storm surge and windwave/swell that produced the extreme coastal damage on the eastern shore of the Island. Given that NY harbor is open to the east between Sandy Hook and Rockaway point, and that storm surge elevated the bay by 10 or 12 feet, 15-20 feet deep water would have extended to just offshore the "normal" coastline at the height of the storm (and of course much deeper just a little further offshore). Storm significant waves at the NY harbor entrance buoy were 30 ft + at the height of Sandy, and I suspect nearly that height of wave made it more or less intact to the Staten island eastern shore.

NY harbor bathymetry: Link
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Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Yeah, it seems like a whole lot of folks didn't really see what was coming at them. And to be honest, I can't really blame them that much -- they hadn't done this before, it's hard to know what's hype and what isn't, and the immediate effects here were worse than even I was expecting (and I'm no optimist with these things, I tend toward the "assume the worst and prepare for that.")

Most people don't go directly to the NHC. Most people glance at the weather on their local news, and that's about it.

Folks should clearly have evacuated, but they didn't. Their mistake doesn't make the situations they're in now any less heartbreaking.

To some degree, I think that a lot of people are so sort of jaded about the "impending doom" stories smacking at them from the sensationalized teevees constantly that they tend to disbelieve all of it. Add that to our general human tendency to really think "it won't happen to me," or "it's never happened before (so it won't!)" and you wind up with some awful if it really _does_ go nasty. We've all got a lot of learning to do, just in realizing that sometimes, it really _is_ that bad.

And honestly, having been through any number of storms up in NE that really _were_ hypetastic (you'd think the world was going to end because it snowed a few inches,) I can understand where some of it comes from. I've also been through some really nasty ones, or some that genuinely _could_ have been nasty but turned out not so bad (glad for the warnings, either way). But it's hard to tell sometimes, when the news tells you daily that we're all going to die from killer bees and hot dogs and cancer and homicides and tainted drugs and cholesterol and...

I mean, some of the things in it may be serious, but it gets so hard to tell which, without doing some digging.

Regardless, damn, do I feel for the people who misjudged and have lost lives or loved ones, and I wish we could get better at collectively learning these sorts of things without having people experience so much terrible suffering first.


I remember how it was for only a few inches of snow. The media really is irresponsible and should only be showing the rational amount of excitement. But it's money.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

985 is already significant. Very significant. I'm just trying to put my finger around the track now, as it appears more than likely a sub 985MB or even sub 980 MB will move up along the ravaged coastline. I guess one thing to remember with these things are this one is projected to be more of a typical Nor-Easter, so the wind field will not be as concentrated around the center, and very well might extend several hundred miles out. That worries me.

12Z GFS is running now, and we'll see what it'll say in about an half an hour...
the one good thing..so far the models do not have it moving INTO NYC..but passing it closely to the east..IF this changes..those people should be warned soonest huh
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The new GFS for the coming Nor'Easter is in. It's noticeably faster getting the storm in position this run, and shows a worst case scenario track with the center passing just east of the NY/NJ coasts, creating a strong onshore wind and heavy rain:



according to the models, how does wash dc fare in this new storm?
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Quoting charlottefl:
I wish there was a way to help the general public understand just how serious storm surge is, especially along the immediate coastline. I know some people understand and therefore evacuate, but I'm not sure everyone gets the message quite so clearly, just wondering if there is a better way to convey the seriousness of it to the average american...
no need now..the whole world just witnessed what storm surge can do..picture after picture, night after night..the horrible truth of what storm surge can do......ME myself..in a hurricane i always..until now..watched for the winds..never the water...from now on i sure will
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Quoting charlottefl:
Been looking through video clips, this just broke my heart....

Link

Death toll has now risen to 109..
those people never knew what was coming..the storms always keep on going, even when told it was coming IN..they never realized just how Terrible it was going to be...sad to say..this is one of life's Lessons and from now on, they will know what is coming and how to react, just like WE all do along the gulf coasts and prepare for a life changing event
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Potential for snow to impact the mid-Atlantic and Northeast this upcoming week:



Comparison of GFS and Euro models
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Quoting charlottefl:
I wish there was a way to help the general public understand just how serious storm surge is, especially along the immediate coastline. I know some people understand and therefore evacuate, but I'm not sure everyone gets the message quite so clearly, just wondering if there is a better way to convey the seriousness of it to the average american...


Time-lapse photography.
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Quoting charlottefl:
Been looking through video clips, this just broke my heart....

Link

Death toll has now risen to 109..
Horrible...Sick to my stomach.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22727

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron