Moderate-strength Nor'easter may hit Sandy-devastated areas Wednesday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:16 PM GMT on November 02, 2012

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Storm-weary U.S. residents pounded by Superstorm Sandy may have a new storm to contend with next Wednesday: an early-season Nor'easter is expected to impact the mid-Atlantic and New England with strong winds and heavy rain. Our two top models, the European (ECMWF) and GFS (run by the National Weather Service), both predict that an area of low pressure will move off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada. The storm is predicted to intensify into a medium-strength Nor'easter with a central pressure of 992 mb by Wednesday afternoon, when it will be centered a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY. The European model, which did an exemplary job forecasting Hurricane Sandy, predicts a stronger storm that will stay just offshore and bring a 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 - 45 mph to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York on Wednesday morning and afternoon. The GFS model and 06Z NOGAPS model runs from 06Z (2 am EDT) this morning have a weaker storm that is farther offshore, with the main impact of the Nor'easter occurring Wednesday evening in coastal Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Maine. The Nor'easter will likely bring a swath of 2 - 4" of rain to the coast, and the potential for more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of the New England. The storm is still five days away, and five-day forecasts of the path and intensity of Nor'easters usually have large errors. Nevertheless, residents and relief workers in the region hit by Sandy should anticipate the possibility of the arrival on Wednesday of a moderate-strength Nor'easter with heavy rain, accompanied by high winds capable of driving a 1 - 2 foot storm surge with battering waves.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for Wednesday morning, November 7, 2012, from the 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the ECMWF model made on November 2, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (40 - 45 mph) are predicted to extend from coastal Maryland to the east tip of Long Island, NY.


Figure 2. Forecast track error for four of our top models used to predict Hurricane Sandy. The GFS model performed the best for 1 - 3 day forecasts, but the European (ECMWF) model far out-performed all models at longer-range 4 - 5 day forecasts. This may be due to the fact the model was able to successfully predict the timing of the arrival of a trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. that acted to steer Sandy to the north and then northwest. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.


Figure 3. Forecast track error for four of our top models used to predict Hurricane Sandy, for their runs that began at 00Z October 25, 2012. The GFDL and ECMWF models made great forecasts that correctly showed Sandy making landfall in Southern New Jersey in five days. The GFS and HWRF models made good 1 - 3 day forecasts, but failed to anticipate Sandy's northward turn towards the U.S. coast. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Links
Impressive loop of 1-minute visible satellite imagery spanning 6 days of Sandy's life.

A one-day time lapse video from a New York City webcam showing Sandy's impact on the city. It's eerie to see the city suddenly plunged into darkness.

First round of damage assessment aerial imagery collected by NOAA's National Geodetic Survey on Oct. 31 along the New Jersey coast.


Figure 4. Flooding in Haiti from Hurricane Sandy. Image credit: The Lambi Fund of Haiti.

Charities mobilize for Sandy
Sandy's death toll of 98 in the U.S. makes the storm one of the 30 most deadly hurricanes to affect the U.S.. The outpouring of charitable donations in the wake of the terrible storm has been great to see. NBC is hosting a benefit concert at 8 pm tonight (Friday), and the main owners of The Weather Channel have agreed to match donations of up to $1 million to the American Red Cross, with all donations to benefit people in the hard-hit areas of the U.S. To have your donation matched, please visit www.redcross.org/sandy, or text SANDY to 90999. I also recommend my favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org. They are focusing their response efforts exclusively on the post-Sandy needs of people with disabilities.Check out the Portlight blog to see what they're up to.

Sandy's greatest devastation occurred in Haiti, where rains of up to 20 inches in 24 hours unleashed rampaging flood waters that killed at least 54, left 200,000 homeless, wiped out thousand of acres of crops, and killed massive numbers of livestock. For impoverished families in Haiti still struggling to recover from the earthquake in 2010 and Hurricane Isaac in August, Sandy was devastating. These crops are the very essence of rural Haitian’s livelihoods, and there are fears widespread starvation will result. A disaster relief charity in Haiti that I've contributed to for many years, The Lambi Fund of Haiti, is seeking donations to help farmers purchase local seeds so that they can replant their crops in the wake of this latest terrible Haitian catastrophe.

I'll have an update this weekend on the coming Nor'easter.

Jeff Masters

Floods due to Sandy (WunderLecha)
The waters of Sagua la Grande river crossing the National highway in Ranchuelo, Cuba
Floods due to Sandy
Tree damage in Tucker County, W.V. (beaudodson)
Thousands of trees were damaged in West Virginia by the heavy/wet snow. Many were without power for days.
Tree damage in Tucker County, W.V.
Remnants of Sandy (stoneygirl)
These are a few of the incredible clouds associated with Hurricane Sandy. I am blessed because I didn't have any damage. Thank you God. Sending all my thoughts and prayers to NY and NJ where the devastation will take years to recover from.
Remnants of Sandy

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Thanks for the update Dr Jeff.
LOL, perhaps Morris Bender could provide us his model track error comparison graphic for TS Debby and Hurricane Isaac among several other storms, might not look so stellar for the ECMWF... ;)

Quoting sar2401:

Let's hope the GFS is more right than the ECMWF this time.


Will just have to watch the trends with lastest cycle runs. Dr Jeff mentioned the 06Z runs (and as we're seeing with newest 12Z GFS)... however, what wasn't mentioned was the Nov 2 0Z GFS 10 meter wind forecast for 5.5 days out, same Nov 7 12Z morning as the ECMWF he depicted, in a fair comparison, was a near identical match showing same sharp bands wrapping around the N side of the low -----



Nov 2 2012 0Z GFS forecast for Nov 7 2012 12Z, 10 meter wind / knots, courtesy NCEP / NOAA / NOMADS.
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Quoting entrelac:
They didn't turn help away!

That info came from Decatur Utilities (see post above).


And read it...they left because they wouldn't agree to Union Rules...extortion in the face of disaster....
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Quoting entrelac:

Have you heard anything about local storm refugees (for lack of a better term) being bumped from hotels for runners?

I haven't seen any official debunking on this but it's a story that's gaining traction through blog postings.
If the refugees are staying in rooms that have already been reserved, then yes, they will be asked to leave. Everyone knows that how it works. That said, I would think the hotels would send the refugees to a hotel that had availability.
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Quoting entrelac:

Have you heard anything about local storm refugees (for lack of a better term) being bumped from hotels for runners?

I haven't seen any official debunking on this but it's a story that's gaining traction through blog postings.


I saw someone suggesting that while I was researching to be certain I had the right idea about what was going on with the Marathon, but I haven't seen anything either way. It might be that the hotels had excess capacity used for shelters that they now need to clear out so they can host people with reservations, but I don't know.

I can't find any sign that they are kicking people out. Some hotels are trying to figure out how to make room for everyone, including those who have already made reservations, but that's not the same as booting out local storm refugees - it's just not leaving travelers stranded. The refugees do have emergency shelters still available to them, and have an easier time finding alternate shelter than the people who have already bought tickets and are already coming.

That said, the difficulties with hotel rooms do provide the only decent reason I've heard to cancel the marathon. Refugees spending money on the hotel rooms will help to make up for some of the economic impact.
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Quoting kwgirl:
Unions are about protecting the jobs for their members. That is their job. Ridiculous during an emergency. Here in South Florida we don't turn any help away.
They didn't turn help away!

That info came from Decatur Utilities (see post above).
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Quoting captainktainer:


Only the Decatur Utilities people were asked to affiliate with a union, for two good reasons. One, they needed a central authority to report to and to handle any workman's comp. Two, because the systems are different and they need liaisons to explain and monitor the differences. Throwing random crews willy-nilly, hither and yon won't help. This is merely one of a thousand reasons not to get information from the Daily Caller.

As for the marathon, the generators are privately owned and not at the command of the city. Bloomberg doesn't get a say in how they're used, and they're not the kind of generators you can just pick up, move quickly, and then set up someplace else. Furthermore, when the race kicks off Sunday, we're going to have a surplus of police and other infrastructural employees - they're already reassigning police from parts of the city that have been restored to clear congested streets like Coney Island Avenue, and when that's done there will be plenty available for the marathon. We have an excess capacity of police officers. It isn't as big a deal as people are making it out to be. Personally, I don't care about the marathon, but there is the point that tens of thousands of people are coming or are already here, and turning them down would be a serious blow to the city's reputation and economy.

You have to affiliate with a union to work mutual aid? Who runs the utilities up there, the unions or management? There is no difference between power systems, especially at the distribution level, in New Jersey compared to Alabama. None. There should be liaisons already in place, and Power Control, not unions, should be coordinating dispatch of crews. I worked with Pacific Gas and Electric for many years, and these kind of issues never came up when we dispatched or requested mutual aid. None of those crews just decided to jump in trucks and drive up there. They were requested through the mutual aid system.

There's going to be an excess number of police officers, firefighters, medics, and ambulances available? The folks on Staten Island seem to disagree. The generators are truck mounted and can be moved anywhere. If it were not for the marathon, do you think the city might be able to rent them instead and use them for temporary power facilities where they are needed? The mayor, if he chose to, could simply requisition those generators as part of his powers under a declared state of emergency. Not running a race that could be rescheduled would be a serious blow to the city's reputation and economy? Did NYC cancel any events after 9/11? The race is going to be run through Staten Island? Yep, great idea.

I guarantee you this race will be canceled before the end of the day. The backlash against running this race is already building, and New Yorkers are not known for being demure when they are cranked off.
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Re: The Marathon

Angry doesn't begin to describe the stuff I've read. I've even read more than a handful of calls for riots at the finish line.

I don't think that will actually happen but it's a sign of the frustration storm victims are feeling right now and the Marathon has given them something to focus, and possibly vent, that frustration on.

It should have been postponed.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting LargoFl:
maybe not if its a safety issue
Unions are about protecting the jobs for their members. That is their job. Ridiculous during an emergency. Here in South Florida we don't turn any help away.
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A Perfect MEME Storm
...Easy Outrage


via theatlanticwire.com

ALEXANDER ABAD-SANTOS 1:14 PM ET

Plenty of people are unhappy with New York City's decision to give the marathon a green light while New Yorkers are still reeling from the effects of Sandy. That's a logical thought process. But what's also important to remember is this isn't a battle of good versus evil. 

At the heart of this story are people in Rockaway, Queens and Staten Island who desperately need all the help they can get. What started as the initial complaints of those residents slowly turning into  an angry meme complete with villains, heroes, martyrs, and victims, complete with Tumblrs, online petitions garnering thousands of signatures to call off the race, angry tweets, and Facebook pages for every kind of protest. 

What we have to remember here is that no one is trying to actively hurt anyone and it isn't a matter of good guys and bad guys (which it seems to be escalating into). Let us explain:

"The Villains"

Who Are They: The New York Road Runners, Mayor Bloomberg, ING

What They Did: They went ahead with the decision to give the marathon a green light. They then defended their decision to give the marathon the green light yesterday. And with more people growing unhappy by the moment, they thought that announcing a $1 million donation to the Sandy relief effort yesterday would temper some of the anger. They were pretty wrong. 

Why They Did It: Money. That's the driving factor here. Cancel the marathon and you lose out on the $350 million boost it provides New York businesses. And you could argue that bump could be used for good and to help the victims of Sandy, as Road Runner Chief Executive Mary Wittenberg did yesterday. "This isn’t about running, this is about helping the city ... We’re dedicating this race to the lives that were lost and helping the city recover. We want to raise money and awareness," she said. 
...

The Situation They're In: There are good intentions here. And that $1 million donation is more than what some New York organizations have come up with (it's double the donation from the Yankees, for example). And who knows what kind of money can go to Sandy when it's eventually raised, but the optics don't favor these guys who made this decision even though Mayor Bloomberg has repeatedly said and promised resources were not being diverted from victims. In hindsight, postponing the race might have been a better decision if cancelation wasn't an option.
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Quoting entrelac:

Have you heard anything about local storm refugees (for lack of a better term) being bumped from hotels for runners?

I haven't seen any official debunking on this but it's a story that's gaining traction through blog postings.


Havent read anything necessarily "debunking" the claim and I have heard it on other media as well. I have a feeling, however, that many cases of "being bumped" out of a hotel room due to the marathon has to do with reservations.

Reservations for marathon runners and spectators were probably in place far before reservations made by storm-displaced folks. As such, the storm-displaced folks wouldn't be able to extend their stays longer. Not necessarily agreeing with the situation as a whole working out that way but I'd bet it isn't quite as sinister as it is being made out to be, I doubt many hotel managers are telling people "get out, I want to make space for possible marathon reservations."
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Quoting FtMyersgal:


The Huffington post is reporting that a Staten Island hotel owner is refusing to kick out refugees for runners that had reservations

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/02/richard- nicotra-staten-island-hotel-owner-evict-hurricane- nyc-marathon_n_2064799.html


Thanks!
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October was an unusually dry month in Georgia, and a small area in central GA received no rain at all.
I probably only got about an inch if that much.




AVERAGE STREAM LEVELS FOR THE PAST 7 DAYS RANGED FROM AS LOW AS 1 PERCENT ON MUCH OF THE FLINT...OCMULGEE AND OCONEE RIVERS IN CENTRAL GEORGIA...TO AS HIGH AS 65 PERCENT ON THE CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER IN ATLANTA DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL OR LACK THEREOF.

Atlanta has fallen 13 inches behind on rainfall for the year, about 25%. Another year with no hurricane passing through GA means the drought stayed steady or slightly worsened....fortunately its fall and stuff are dying now.


...THE LONG TERM DROUGHT REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...

THE SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT REMAINED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. A WEAK
EL NINO PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COOL SEASON. THE DROUGHT
IMPACTS REMAIN THE SAME OR ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING WORSE FOR LAKES
AND PONDS. MANY STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
GEORGIA...REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL TO SOME RECORD LOWS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE DROUGHT IMPACTS WILL BE MASKED IN MANY AREAS DUE TO
VEGETATION BECOMING DORMANT AND LOWER EVAPORATION RATES DUE TO THE
COOL SEASON.

A FEW DAYS OF SPOTTY RAIN BROUGHT NO RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT STRICKEN
AREAS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. IT WAS A VERY DRY PERIOD DURING
THE PAST 14 DAYS WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING NO RAINFALL. A FEW AREAS
IN NORTH GEORGIA RECEIVED FROM LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH TO
NEAR A HALF INCH.

THE RAINFALL DEFICITS BECAME WORSE AND SOIL MOISTURE DECLINED IN THE
PAST TWO WEEKS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT AREA REMAINED THE SAME OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
CEDARTOWN TO CANTON TO ATLANTA TO ATHENS TO WASHINGTON. THE LONG
TERM DROUGHT AREA

We were 2 inches low in October, and 5 inches behind since September.
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Quoting entrelac:

Have you heard anything about local storm refugees (for lack of a better term) being bumped from hotels for runners?

I haven't seen any official debunking on this but it's a story that's gaining traction through blog postings.


The Huffington post is reporting that a Staten Island hotel owner is refusing to kick out refugees for runners that had reservations

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/02/richard- nicotra-staten-island-hotel-owner-evict-hurricane- nyc-marathon_n_2064799.html
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Thanks Dr. Masters.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
40. Skyepony (Mod)
Thanks for the update.. Poor Haiti. The rain came heavy in the worst spot.

The damage assessment aerial imagery updates each evening as they dump the day's pics in. Yesterday they did Sandy Hook among others. Ties here to that Navesink Lighthouse. The grass around it is green. Looks to have escaped flood. There is many houses in that area that are gone though..carried away in the surge. Many of the roads out there look impassable & a lot of standing water still.

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Quoting captainktainer:


Only the Decatur Utilities people were asked to affiliate with a union, for two good reasons. One, they needed a central authority to report to and to handle any workman's comp. Two, because the systems are different and they need liaisons to explain and monitor the differences. Throwing random crews willy-nilly, hither and yon won't help. This is merely one of a thousand reasons not to get information from the Daily Caller.

As for the marathon, the generators are privately owned and not at the command of the city. Bloomberg doesn't get a say in how they're used, and they're not the kind of generators you can just pick up, move quickly, and then set up someplace else. Furthermore, when the race kicks off Sunday, we're going to have a surplus of police and other infrastructural employees - they're already reassigning police from parts of the city that have been restored to clear congested streets like Coney Island Avenue, and when that's done there will be plenty available for the marathon. We have an excess capacity of police officers. It isn't as big a deal as people are making it out to be. Personally, I don't care about the marathon, but there is the point that tens of thousands of people are coming or are already here, and turning them down would be a serious blow to the city's reputation and economy.

Have you heard anything about local storm refugees (for lack of a better term) being bumped from hotels for runners?

I haven't seen any official debunking on this but it's a story that's gaining traction through blog postings.
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Sandy death toll rises to at least 102

Last updated Fri 2 Nov 2012
Hurricane Sandy USA


At least 102 people in the US and Canada have died as a result of Hurricane Sandy, according to figures released on Friday.

In New York City, 40 people have been found dead, with half of the fatalities being on Staten Island. Officials in New Jersey said that the death toll in the state had reached 13, while 14 deaths were reported in Pennsylvania.

The storm also killed at least 69 people in the Caribbean, including at least 54 in Haiti and 11 in Cuba, before hitting the US coast on Monday, authorities said.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5997
Thanks Dr. Masters for your up-date,
Glad to see some factual info on Haitian losses..
I don't know if they will ever re-bound from the earthquake and tropical waves and storms that hit them yearly..
I wish someone would truly give us how many relief boots are on the ground and what goals have been achieved there and what are the plans by the Haitian
Government..
As far as models are concerned,they are sure getting better than they were 5yrs. ago..
Thanks again Dr. Masters
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......outside of a local flare up in the tropics, I think Florida's hurricane season is over for the most part,front after cold front comes down now...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37044
T-Mobile retail locations? Nice link. Yep, that's de-bunked...
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Quoting LargoFl:
supposed to be a weaker system, hope its not too bad for you folks,guess you know this time of year the storms do come with the changing of the seasons


Oh,yeah,we know that,comes with the territory,but Sandy equaled 3 nor'easters,was hoping Mother Nature had filled her quota with that one storm,guess not.
Maybe making up for our incredibly warm fall and winter seasons last year.
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Thanks Dr Masters...

The long range GFS is still funny, well assuming it wont pan out:

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Quoting sar2401:
The decision is run the NYC Marathon is more than idiotic. It's grossly irresponsible. Any idea how many police officers and first responders are normally assigned to this event? The numbers are usually between 700-800. There are also thousands of volunteers needed to run this event, people that could be better used to help in recovery eforts. The mayor even has two large, truck mounted generators standing by, doing nothing, to provide power for the race, instead of using these in places like Staten Island, where search and rescue teams are still pulling bodies out of homes. New York may be tough as nails, but they also need to direct resources to the areas of greatest need...and it ain't for running a marathon.

In other news, non-union utility crews are being turned awyu from working in Seaside NJ, one of the hardest hit sections of the NJ coast. The IBEW controls all utility work in NJ, and they are apparently more concerned about union jobs rules than restoring power. Several of the crews are from my state, Alabama. They drove all night and day to get there, only to be told they "weren't needed". All this with another storm approaching next week.

At some point, it becomes hard to be sympathetic to places that make dumb decisions and act like it's busines as usual. I do feel sorry for the citizens who are affected by these kind of things. I'm hoping they will protest loudly and get things back on track.

Not Union? Go Away


Only the Decatur Utilities people were asked to affiliate with a union, for two good reasons. One, they needed a central authority to report to and to handle any workman's comp. Two, because the systems are different and they need liaisons to explain and monitor the differences. Throwing random crews willy-nilly, hither and yon won't help. This is merely one of a thousand reasons not to get information from the Daily Caller.

As for the marathon, the generators are privately owned and not at the command of the city. Bloomberg doesn't get a say in how they're used, and they're not the kind of generators you can just pick up, move quickly, and then set up someplace else. Furthermore, when the race kicks off Sunday, we're going to have a surplus of police and other infrastructural employees - they're already reassigning police from parts of the city that have been restored to clear congested streets like Coney Island Avenue, and when that's done there will be plenty available for the marathon. We have an excess capacity of police officers. It isn't as big a deal as people are making it out to be. Personally, I don't care about the marathon, but there is the point that tens of thousands of people are coming or are already here, and turning them down would be a serious blow to the city's reputation and economy.
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my vote would have been to postpone this election but..................Military trucks to serve as polling places in NJ
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37044
scanners ny regions

Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37044
Quoting seer2012:
It was still a IBEW hinderence issue,wasn't it?For the IBEW not to forgoe their restrictions during an emergency is absurd.
maybe not if its a safety issue
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37044
Quoting NEwxguy:
Im already tired of the fall/winter season and we're only half way through fall.Another danger of the coming nor'easter is all the trees that were cracked or weakened by Sandy may come down depending on how strong the winds get.
supposed to be a weaker system, hope its not too bad for you folks,guess you know this time of year the storms do come with the changing of the seasons
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37044
Quoting entrelac:

That non-union story has been debunked by Decatur Utilities.

Decatur, Ala. --

Decatur Utilities sent a 6-man crew to the Northeast Wednesday, October 31, bound for Seaside Heights, NJ to assist with power restoration. Communications with Seaside Heights was poor due to lack of cell phone service in the area. Upon arriving at a staging area in Virginia, crews were held in place pending clarification of documents received from IBEW that implied a requirement of our employees to agree to union affiliation while working in the New York and New Jersey areas. It was and remains our understanding that agreeing to those requirements was a condition of being allowed to work in those areas. As we waited for clarification, we became aware that Seaside Heights had received the assitance they needed from other sources. To be clear, at no time were our crews "turned away" from the utility in Seaside Heights.

In connection with state and regional public power associations, Decatur Utilities attempted to contact other areas that needed assistance. However, based on the uncertainty of union requirements that we could not agree to and the uncertainty of whether a resolution could be reached, we ultimately made the decision to return them to Decatur after being stalled in the Virginia area most of the day on Thursday.



It was still a IBEW hinderence issue,wasn't it?For the IBEW not to forgoe their restrictions during an emergency is absurd.
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Thank you for the new blog Dr. Masters
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354 floridaT: ...how can 1 gallon of gas put 20 pounds in the air when 1 gallon doesn't weigh near that. Does 2 molecules of oxygen add that much?

Yep. Gasoline is a mixture of various compounds of hydrocarbons containing between four and twelve carbon atoms. So pret much hafta "spherical cow" the calculations to:
8 carbons with 2 hydrogens apiece plus 2 hydrogen endcaps; ie pretend that a gasoline blend has an average composition of 8 carbon atoms plus (8times2 plus 2) 18 hydrogen.

Hydrogen atoms weigh 1 unit apiece, and carbon atoms weighs 12 units apiece, so gasoline contains 18 mass-units of hydrogen and (8times12 or) 96 mass units of carbon, for a total of 114 mass-units.
96 divided by 114 is ~0.86, so ~86% of the weight of a gallon of gasoline is carbon
A gallon of gasoline has a weight of about 75% of that of water, so
the weight of carbon in a gallon of gasoline is ~75% times ~%86, or ~64% that of a gallon of water.
Water weighs 8.35 pounds per gallon, so
the weight of carbon in a gallon of gasoline is ~0.64 times 8.35 pounds, or ~5.35pounds*.

Carbon dioxide is 1 atom of carbon to 2 atoms of oxygen.
Carbon has 12 mass-units while oxygen has 16.
CO2 has a weight of 12 plus 16 plus 16 mass-units,
ie CO2 has 44 total mass-units for every 12 mass-units of carbon it contains.
44 divided by 12 is 3.66, and 3.66 times the 5.35 pounds of carbon in 1 gallon of gasoline equals
19.6 pounds of CO2 produced for every gallon of gasoline burned*, which rounds to 20pounds.

* Remember this is a "spherical cow": ie gasoline's real carbon-to-hydrogen ratio has been replaced by a simplifying assumption. If I'd assumed that the "average gasoline molecule" had 9 carbon atoms (or fewer hydrogens per carbon), the amount of C02 produced would have been greater.
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Quoting sar2401:
The decision is run the NYC Marathon is more than idiotic. It's grossly irresponsible. Any idea how many police officers and first responders are normally assigned to this event? The numbers are usually between 700-800. There are also thousands of volunteers needed to run this event, people that could be better used to help in recovery eforts. The mayor even has two large, truck mounted generators standing by, doing nothing, to provide power for the race, instead of using these in places like Staten Island, where search and rescue teams are still pulling bodies out of homes. New York may be tough as nails, but they also need to direct resources to the areas of greatest need...and it ain't for running a marathon.

In other news, non-union utility crews are being turned away from working in Seaside NJ, one of the hardest hit sections of the NJ coast. The IBEW controls all utility work in NJ, and they are apparently more concerned about union jobs rules than restoring power. Several of the crews are from my state, Alabama. They drove all night and day to get there, only to be told they "weren't needed". All this with another storm approaching next week.

At some point, it becomes hard to be sympathetic to places that make dumb decisions and act like it's business as usual. I do feel sorry for the citizens who are affected by these kind of things. I'm hoping they will protest loudly and get things back on track.

Not Union? Go Away




Excellent post...Thanks
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Quoting sar2401:

Let's hope the GFS is more right than the ECMWF this time.


either way..NC will still get it..Coastal NC doesn't need any more wind or rain either..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14602
Quoting sar2401:
The decision is run the NYC Marathon is more than idiotic. It's grossly irresponsible. Any idea how many police officers and first responders are normally assigned to this event? The numbers are usually between 700-800. There are also thousands of volunteers needed to run this event, people that could be better used to help in recovery eforts. The mayor even has two large, truck mounted generators standing by, doing nothing, to provide power for the race, instead of using these in places like Staten Island, where search and rescue teams are still pulling bodies out of homes. New York may be tough as nails, but they also need to direct resources to the areas of greatest need...and it ain't for running a marathon.

In other news, non-union utility crews are being turned away from working in Seaside NJ, one of the hardest hit sections of the NJ coast. The IBEW controls all utility work in NJ, and they are apparently more concerned about union jobs rules than restoring power. Several of the crews are from my state, Alabama. They drove all night and day to get there, only to be told they "weren't needed". All this with another storm approaching next week.

At some point, it becomes hard to be sympathetic to places that make dumb decisions and act like it's business as usual. I do feel sorry for the citizens who are affected by these kind of things. I'm hoping they will protest loudly and get things back on track.

Not Union? Go Away
You need to catch up; that whole story about non-union utility workers being turned away is untrue--at least according to those non-union utilities.
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Thanks Jeff...
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Quoting sar2401:


In other news, non-union utility crews are being turned away from working in Seaside NJ, one of the hardest hit sections of the NJ coast. The IBEW controls all utility work in NJ, and they are apparently more concerned about union jobs rules than restoring power. Several of the crews are from my state, Alabama. They drove all night and day to get there, only to be told they "weren't needed". All this with another storm approaching next week.

At some point, it becomes hard to be sympathetic to places that make dumb decisions and act like it's busines as usual. I do feel sorry for the citizens who are affected by these kind of things. I'm hoping they will protest loudly and get things back on track.

Not Union? Go Away

That non-union story has been debunked by Decatur Utilities.

Decatur, Ala. --

Decatur Utilities sent a 6-man crew to the Northeast Wednesday, October 31, bound for Seaside Heights, NJ to assist with power restoration. Communications with Seaside Heights was poor due to lack of cell phone service in the area. Upon arriving at a staging area in Virginia, crews were held in place pending clarification of documents received from IBEW that implied a requirement of our employees to agree to union affiliation while working in the New York and New Jersey areas. It was and remains our understanding that agreeing to those requirements was a condition of being allowed to work in those areas. As we waited for clarification, we became aware that Seaside Heights had received the assitance they needed from other sources. To be clear, at no time were our crews "turned away" from the utility in Seaside Heights.

In connection with state and regional public power associations, Decatur Utilities attempted to contact other areas that needed assistance. However, based on the uncertainty of union requirements that we could not agree to and the uncertainty of whether a resolution could be reached, we ultimately made the decision to return them to Decatur after being stalled in the Virginia area most of the day on Thursday.



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Quoting ncstorm:
12z GFS

114 hours


132 hours


156 hours

Let's hope the GFS is more right than the ECMWF this time.
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Thank you Dr. Masters
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5822
The decision is run the NYC Marathon is more than idiotic. It's grossly irresponsible. Any idea how many police officers and first responders are normally assigned to this event? The numbers are usually between 700-800. There are also thousands of volunteers needed to run this event, people that could be better used to help in recovery eforts. The mayor even has two large, truck mounted generators standing by, doing nothing, to provide power for the race, instead of using these in places like Staten Island, where search and rescue teams are still pulling bodies out of homes. New York may be tough as nails, but they also need to direct resources to the areas of greatest need...and it ain't for running a marathon.

In other news, non-union utility crews are being turned away from working in Seaside NJ, one of the hardest hit sections of the NJ coast. The IBEW controls all utility work in NJ, and they are apparently more concerned about union jobs rules than restoring power. Several of the crews are from my state, Alabama. They drove all night and day to get there, only to be told they "weren't needed". All this with another storm approaching next week.

At some point, it becomes hard to be sympathetic to places that make dumb decisions and act like it's business as usual. I do feel sorry for the citizens who are affected by these kind of things. I'm hoping they will protest loudly and get things back on track.

Not Union? Go Away
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Im already tired of the fall/winter season and we're only half way through fall.Another danger of the coming nor'easter is all the trees that were cracked or weakened by Sandy may come down depending on how strong the winds get.
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New York, a city of 8 million, is reeling after the largest tropical system measured in the Atlantic inundated transit tunnels and parts of all five boroughs. The storm killed at least 92 people in the U.S., including 39 New Yorkers, and knocked out power to as many as 8.5 million homes and businesses along the East Coast. About 4.8 million customers remained without power yesterday, from South Carolina to Maine and as far west as Michigan.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37044
12z GFS

114 hours


132 hours


156 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14602
In about 2 days we began dealing with this one 3 years ago..
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Con Edison Sees Full Manhattan Power Restored Tomorrow
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37044
what IF..sandys surge came south, to washington dc?....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37044
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
NE US..."No rest for the weary"
yes and the coming storm will stop or really hamper the restoration of power efforts going on now..geez
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37044
NE US..."No rest for the weary"
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37044
Quoting KarenRei:


1. Nuclear has low *marginal* costs, but extremely high capital and decommissioning costs. People like to pretend that the reason that no nuclear power plants were built for over two decades in the US is because of some sort of environmental regulations, when the reality is, there was just no investment money. Even the current wave of "next gen" reactors designed to reduce costs has slowed down a lot.

2. You are completely wrong about solar. First off, you act like all solar is PV. The large scale solar plants are solar thermal. Solar thermal is nearly grid cost-competitive in the desert southwest of the US, and the price keeps going down. PV panels have been plunging in price, to the point that now for home installations the cost of installing the panels is more than the panels themselves. But PV is still more expensive, whether on the residential scale or grid scale, than solar thermal.

Good post..I believe nuclear fusion reactors will be capable of supplying some areas of the world with power sooner than anticipated. My thinking is that in the meantime, going with alternatives other than oil would be a wise choice for the U.S. There is a decent percentage of the world taking a turn in this direction now, and we will fall behind in technologies that supply cheaper, cleaner and more efficient energy the longer we depend on mass quantities of oil.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20536
Thanks Doc..Hope the forecast storm is not to strong. Sandy did stir things up a bit.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20536

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.