Moderate-strength Nor'easter may hit Sandy-devastated areas Wednesday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:16 PM GMT on November 02, 2012

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Storm-weary U.S. residents pounded by Superstorm Sandy may have a new storm to contend with next Wednesday: an early-season Nor'easter is expected to impact the mid-Atlantic and New England with strong winds and heavy rain. Our two top models, the European (ECMWF) and GFS (run by the National Weather Service), both predict that an area of low pressure will move off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada. The storm is predicted to intensify into a medium-strength Nor'easter with a central pressure of 992 mb by Wednesday afternoon, when it will be centered a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY. The European model, which did an exemplary job forecasting Hurricane Sandy, predicts a stronger storm that will stay just offshore and bring a 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 - 45 mph to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York on Wednesday morning and afternoon. The GFS model and 06Z NOGAPS model runs from 06Z (2 am EDT) this morning have a weaker storm that is farther offshore, with the main impact of the Nor'easter occurring Wednesday evening in coastal Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Maine. The Nor'easter will likely bring a swath of 2 - 4" of rain to the coast, and the potential for more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of the New England. The storm is still five days away, and five-day forecasts of the path and intensity of Nor'easters usually have large errors. Nevertheless, residents and relief workers in the region hit by Sandy should anticipate the possibility of the arrival on Wednesday of a moderate-strength Nor'easter with heavy rain, accompanied by high winds capable of driving a 1 - 2 foot storm surge with battering waves.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for Wednesday morning, November 7, 2012, from the 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the ECMWF model made on November 2, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (40 - 45 mph) are predicted to extend from coastal Maryland to the east tip of Long Island, NY.


Figure 2. Forecast track error for four of our top models used to predict Hurricane Sandy. The GFS model performed the best for 1 - 3 day forecasts, but the European (ECMWF) model far out-performed all models at longer-range 4 - 5 day forecasts. This may be due to the fact the model was able to successfully predict the timing of the arrival of a trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. that acted to steer Sandy to the north and then northwest. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.


Figure 3. Forecast track error for four of our top models used to predict Hurricane Sandy, for their runs that began at 00Z October 25, 2012. The GFDL and ECMWF models made great forecasts that correctly showed Sandy making landfall in Southern New Jersey in five days. The GFS and HWRF models made good 1 - 3 day forecasts, but failed to anticipate Sandy's northward turn towards the U.S. coast. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Links
Impressive loop of 1-minute visible satellite imagery spanning 6 days of Sandy's life.

A one-day time lapse video from a New York City webcam showing Sandy's impact on the city. It's eerie to see the city suddenly plunged into darkness.

First round of damage assessment aerial imagery collected by NOAA's National Geodetic Survey on Oct. 31 along the New Jersey coast.


Figure 4. Flooding in Haiti from Hurricane Sandy. Image credit: The Lambi Fund of Haiti.

Charities mobilize for Sandy
Sandy's death toll of 98 in the U.S. makes the storm one of the 30 most deadly hurricanes to affect the U.S.. The outpouring of charitable donations in the wake of the terrible storm has been great to see. NBC is hosting a benefit concert at 8 pm tonight (Friday), and the main owners of The Weather Channel have agreed to match donations of up to $1 million to the American Red Cross, with all donations to benefit people in the hard-hit areas of the U.S. To have your donation matched, please visit www.redcross.org/sandy, or text SANDY to 90999. I also recommend my favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org. They are focusing their response efforts exclusively on the post-Sandy needs of people with disabilities.Check out the Portlight blog to see what they're up to.

Sandy's greatest devastation occurred in Haiti, where rains of up to 20 inches in 24 hours unleashed rampaging flood waters that killed at least 54, left 200,000 homeless, wiped out thousand of acres of crops, and killed massive numbers of livestock. For impoverished families in Haiti still struggling to recover from the earthquake in 2010 and Hurricane Isaac in August, Sandy was devastating. These crops are the very essence of rural Haitian’s livelihoods, and there are fears widespread starvation will result. A disaster relief charity in Haiti that I've contributed to for many years, The Lambi Fund of Haiti, is seeking donations to help farmers purchase local seeds so that they can replant their crops in the wake of this latest terrible Haitian catastrophe.

I'll have an update this weekend on the coming Nor'easter.

Jeff Masters

Floods due to Sandy (WunderLecha)
The waters of Sagua la Grande river crossing the National highway in Ranchuelo, Cuba
Floods due to Sandy
Tree damage in Tucker County, W.V. (beaudodson)
Thousands of trees were damaged in West Virginia by the heavy/wet snow. Many were without power for days.
Tree damage in Tucker County, W.V.
Remnants of Sandy (stoneygirl)
These are a few of the incredible clouds associated with Hurricane Sandy. I am blessed because I didn't have any damage. Thank you God. Sending all my thoughts and prayers to NY and NJ where the devastation will take years to recover from.
Remnants of Sandy

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105. yoboi
Quoting StormPro:


And read it...they left because they wouldn't agree to Union Rules...extortion in the face of disaster....



is there a climate change union????
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I live on the skirt of. Barnegat about 3 blocks from the Bay. I can see the lighthouse from my window that is how close i am. We werevery scared to see just how fast the water came up on us...only in minutes. Thankfully we missed indoor flooding by 5". Homes along the lagoons have scum lines on the outside that show slab homes had at least 3ft of water. I am here using my cell to hear what everyone has to say about this possible storm on Wednesday. People are depending on this site and mainly this blog so we can prepare for more. Please post info on this possible storm often as we here are counting on those with the resources. Thank you all for being our eyes and ears out there.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
Utility workers pelted with eggs after Bridgeport, Conn. mayor blasts provider


You know my thinking on this is as a business decision..

"if you don't want me to fix the power,I'm gonna look at this situation, and after we,of course, restore your power,I am gonna sell your service demands and grids to a different electric company.
Ungrateful people usually get what they deserve in the end"

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Quoting katrinaeyewall:


All Southern Utility Workers are not non-union nor unsafe. Please refrain from generalizing.



It was trolling.
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Quoting arnoldk:
Theres another isue that needs to be told here. I am retred from line work and was nearly always with unionized shops in one way or another. I worked for utilities and for private companies. I can tell you one VERY importat issue we ocasionally had with non union and almost always deep southern utility workers. There work habit were unsafe as compared to our standards. Now this may draw fire, but I personally witnesed death and injury because of this exact thing.I saw inexperienced people attempt to do hazardous work and get injured. Also many standard prcatise accepted by southern utility workers authority just aren't aceptable practise in union work. I could relate many specifics, but for lack of space here I won't. We were forced by state regulation to entertain these workers and bids because of right to work laws. This proved to be very costly for some individuals that actually wound up dead because of ineperience and or knowledge of procedure. There are standards for build and with a few men from a local shop being involved, the problems of different voltages or system choices can be resolved. BUT providing people who had little or NO experience and calling them line hands or helpers is nothing but a recipe for disaster. Union line workers must go through rigorous training and testing long before they are set out to a job. Andif you don't have the propercredentials when arriving for work, you will not go to work. Period. This is built in for everyones safety. Because of the inherent dangers associated with this kindof work, other hands working "down line" from you have to depend on his "brother" to do the right thing at the right time and to ask if he doesn't.And rarely, but ocaisonally accidents still happen even among members. But I personally was aware of and orwitnessed so many accidents by non union people that many of us including myself refused to work with these people.It is Nothing Personal and NOTHING MONEY or POLITICAL, just plenty on safety of everyone. High voltage isunforgiving and everyone has to know their job or others can and will be hurt or killed.


All Southern Utility Workers are not non-union nor unsafe. Please refrain from generalizing.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
Utility workers pelted with eggs after Bridgeport, Conn. mayor blasts provider


Unbelievable! I can understand the people's fustration. As all Floridians will remember 2004 we were under hurricane watches and warnings from the beginning of August thru the end of September. I lost power for 10 days twice during that stretch so believe me when I say I get their fustration. But I can not make excuses for the threats to workers who were there to help fix the power issues. Shame on them!
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Hotel won't displace evacuees

Richard Nicotra, who owns the Hilton Garden Inn in Bloomfield, said those who have been displaced by the hurricane can stay as long as necessary. Marathon runners are unhappy that he will not honor their reservations, but Nicotra said he will not ask the evacuees to leave.

“How do I tell people that have no place to go, that have no home, that have no heat, that you have to leave because I need to make room for somebody that wants to run the marathon,” Nicotra said. “I can’t do that.”

Mary Wittenberg, president of the New York Road Runners, agreed with Nicotra that the evacuees need to come first.

“The marathoners will find a way,” Wittenberg said. “They’re deciding they want to be here to be part of helping this city move on.”

The Road Runners — which sponsors the marathon every year — said it would donate $1 million to the Hurricane Sandy Relief Fund.

Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5996
Theres another isue that needs to be told here. I am retred from line work and was nearly always with unionized shops in one way or another. I worked for utilities and for private companies. I can tell you one VERY importat issue we ocasionally had with non union and almost always deep southern utility workers. There work habit were unsafe as compared to our standards. Now this may draw fire, but I personally witnesed death and injury because of this exact thing.I saw inexperienced people attempt to do hazardous work and get injured. Also many standard prcatise accepted by southern utility workers authority just aren't aceptable practise in union work. I could relate many specifics, but for lack of space here I won't. We were forced by state regulation to entertain these workers and bids because of right to work laws. This proved to be very costly for some individuals that actually wound up dead because of ineperience and or knowledge of procedure. There are standards for build and with a few men from a local shop being involved, the problems of different voltages or system choices can be resolved. BUT providing people who had little or NO experience and calling them line hands or helpers is nothing but a recipe for disaster. Union line workers must go through rigorous training and testing long before they are set out to a job. Andif you don't have the propercredentials when arriving for work, you will not go to work. Period. This is built in for everyones safety. Because of the inherent dangers associated with this kindof work, other hands working "down line" from you have to depend on his "brother" to do the right thing at the right time and to ask if he doesn't.And rarely, but ocaisonally accidents still happen even among members. But I personally was aware of and orwitnessed so many accidents by non union people that many of us including myself refused to work with these people.It is Nothing Personal and NOTHING MONEY or POLITICAL, just plenty on safety of everyone. High voltage isunforgiving and everyone has to know their job or others can and will be hurt or killed.
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Quoting Minnemike:
news comprehension has become tantamount to ones belief system.. and the stories about the Union biz clearly illustrates this.
and something tells me no matter which 'belief system' anyone here possesses, they too will see this relationship between political leanings and what is believed to have 'actually happened'.

Or you see the story based on experience in the electric utility industry and the history of trying to work with unions in that industry. Take your pick.
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Quoting ncstorm:


I think the Mayer said it was needed for "Normalcy"..there is also a psychological stress as well as physical hardship with going through a disaster..I can see both sides to it but I think the "Normalcy" aspect of it outweighs my cons right now..as long as its not pulling resources away from the recovery effort then Im all for it..
Good post. There may even be other positives from having the race continue, but like you said, as long as it doest take away from recovery efforts...We do not want any terrorist activity slipping through the cracks because of this either.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20501



Temporary generator powered ATM's at Union Square
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5996
Quoting jeffs713:

And if you read the story, you will see that the mayor was the one that ignited everything. Also, it is routine for utilities to work down the line from the largest lines to the smallest ones (so they can restore the most power to the most people faster). Wealthy neighborhoods tend to have buried power lines that aren't damaged in storms, while poorer neighborhoods tend to have aboveground lines that are very vulnerable.

Also, what good will it do to fix a power line going to a house, if the power line doesn't have any electricity going through it due to a downed line further up?

I live in a new middle class neighborhood, and we are served exclusively on underground lines. We also happen to be on the same distribution line as the local hospital. I'm willing to bet that my subdivision that has houses ranging from 100-150k will get its power MUCH earlier than the subdivision down the street that isn't on the same grid, but has houses in excess of 500k.

Correct, although underground lines that have been hit with salt water will take even longer to restore if the transformers suffered significant damage. What people don't understand is that power has to be restored in a certain order, from distribution substations on down to individual drops. Since the grid in the Northeast is so old, there are many overlapping distribution subs that feed lines quite far away. If you don't restore in the correct order, energizing the lines will just cause a short and the whole grid sction trips off line again. In your case, as long as your lines are being fed from the same sub as the hospital, you will get power back first. There's a strict hierarchy of what gets restored first, and it's not based on location. Any public safety facilities, like hospitals and 911 dispatch facilities, will get power back first. If you happen to be on the same line, you're lucky. If not, you wait. Restoring power after such a major hit to the system is an excruciating long and complex task.
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Quoting ncstorm:
12z Euro running 120 hours

Is that tropical?
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I think when it's all said and done Snay's death toll will be somewhere in the 200's
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16406
Quoting ncstorm:


"Comedy is simply a funny way of being serious"

sometimes you have to find humor in chaos to cope with it.I personally didnt see any offense to your pic..
I agree ncstorm. I remember after Andrew, we here in the Keys were in shock. I think it was a kind of survivors guilt. Anyway, I picked up the Miami Herald and read Dave Barry's account of sheltering during Andrew. I loved the part when he said the dog started farting. I think that woke me up, just laughing at that mental picture. Laughter is the best medicine. And when the survivors of Sandy can do that, then they are finally healing.
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Thanks Doc .

The piece on the model errors was extremely interesting . The Euro finally can be forgiven for its Debby error as it changed shortly after the storm formed as the GFS got a fully formed hurricane, track pretty much wrong .

Guess that means none of the models always gets it right and the human mind interpreting these models is always an important factor for the NHC forecast.
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Staten Island Ferry running again as of noon today

http://live.nydailynews.com/Event/Tracking_Hurric ane_Sandy_2




Staten Island Ferry running again as of noon today

http://live.nydailynews.com/Event/Tracking_Hurric ane_Sandy_2
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5996
Quoting ncstorm:


"Comedy is simply a funny way of being serious"

sometimes you have to find humor in chaos to cope with it.I personally didnt see any offense to your pic..

Me either. It was a humorous take on a very poor decision. Some people have no sense of humor...or irony.
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Quoting percylives:


Good description but why assume anything other than 8 carbons? Octane has 8 carbons and the octane number of gasoline blends is the percentage of octane in that particular blend and the lowest blend, regular, is 87% while the highest, premium is in the 91-93 % range.

Octane isn't a percentage - there are gasolines out there with octane ratings above 100.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:


True, but I understand Taz's point, and I don't need the picture to illustrate the purpose of the post anyway...

You do have to truly wonder the reasoning behind to continue the race, especially when dead bodies are still be pulled out of ruble. Any sports event should be put on hold until certain issues are resolved. Too many things need to be taken care of first and before recreation events take place. I understand people want to relax, have something to take their mind of what has just happened, or to even bring a city together. I get that, but people are still missing, and others are in very dire needs. I'm sure most on here feel the same way too...


I think the Mayer said it was needed for "Normalcy"..there is also a psychological stress as well as physical hardship with going through a disaster..I can see both sides to it but I think the "Normalcy" aspect of it outweighs my cons right now..as long as its not pulling resources away from the recovery effort then Im all for it..
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
Utility workers pelted with eggs after Bridgeport, Conn. mayor blasts provider

And if you read the story, you will see that the mayor was the one that ignited everything. Also, it is routine for utilities to work down the line from the largest lines to the smallest ones (so they can restore the most power to the most people faster). Wealthy neighborhoods tend to have buried power lines that aren't damaged in storms, while poorer neighborhoods tend to have aboveground lines that are very vulnerable.

Also, what good will it do to fix a power line going to a house, if the power line doesn't have any electricity going through it due to a downed line further up?

I live in a new middle class neighborhood, and we are served exclusively on underground lines. We also happen to be on the same distribution line as the local hospital. I'm willing to bet that my subdivision that has houses ranging from 100-150k will get its power MUCH earlier than the subdivision down the street that isn't on the same grid, but has houses in excess of 500k.
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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


I think you just answered your own question Wash.
Now that I've re-read it I did!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16406
Quoting entrelac:
Exactly.

And, when the original news station, WAFF, that put the story out there has started to walk it back it means it's bunk or a vast union led conspiracy. Take your pick.
news comprehension has become tantamount to ones belief system.. and the stories about the Union biz clearly illustrates this.
and something tells me no matter which 'belief system' anyone here possesses, they too will see this relationship between political leanings and what is believed to have 'actually happened'.
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Quoting captainktainer:


As for the marathon, the generators are privately owned and not at the command of the city. Bloomberg doesn't get a say in how they're used, and they're not the kind of generators you can just pick up, move quickly, and then set up someplace else. Furthermore, when the race kicks off Sunday, we're going to have a surplus of police and other infrastructural employees - they're already reassigning police from parts of the city that have been restored to clear congested streets like Coney Island Avenue, and when that's done there will be plenty available for the marathon. We have an excess capacity of police officers. It isn't as big a deal as people are making it out to be. Personally, I don't care about the marathon, but there is the point that tens of thousands of people are coming or are already here, and turning them down would be a serious blow to the city's reputation and economy.


Don't agree. IMO it is a serious blow to the city's reputation that the marathon will be held. If I am informed correctly the route of the race leads through several heavily damaged areas of the town.

I also wonder how all those starters will reach the starting points on Staten Island. The marathon just hampers relief.

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12z Euro running 120 hours

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Quoting ncstorm:


"Comedy is simply a funny way of being serious"

sometimes you have to find humor in chaos to cope with it.I personally didnt see any offense to your pic..


True, but I understand Taz's point, and I don't need the picture to illustrate the purpose of the post anyway...

You do have to truly wonder at the reasoning behind to continue a marathon race, especially when dead bodies are still be pulled out of rubble. Any sports event should be put on hold until certain issues are resolved. Too many things need to be taken care of first and before recreation events take place. I understand people want to relax, have something to take their mind of what has just happened, or to even bring a city together. I get that, but people are still missing, and others are in very dire needs. I'm sure most on here feel the same way too...
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Good afternoon.

In all fairness Doc if it wasn't for what Sandy did to the northeast would you really be blogging about this upcoming nor'easter?.I'm curious this nor'easter will undoubtfully hault rescue search and crews with releif efforts as well.


I think you just answered your own question Wash.
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Good afternoon.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16406
Quoting aspectre:
354 floridaT: ...how can 1 gallon of gas put 20 pounds in the air when 1 gallon doesn't weigh near that. Does 2 molecules of oxygen add that much?

Yep. Gasoline is a mixture of various compounds of hydrocarbons containing between four and twelve carbon atoms. So pret much hafta "spherical cow" the calculations to:
8 carbons with 2 hydrogens apiece plus 2 hydrogen endcaps; ie pretend that a gasoline blend has an average compostion of 8 carbon atoms plus (8times2 plus 2) 18 hydrogen.

Hydrogen atoms weigh 1 unit apiece, and carbon atoms weighs 12 units apiece, so gasoline contains 18 mass-units of hydrogen and (8times12 or) 96 mass units of carbon, for a total of 114 mass-units.
96 divided by 114 is ~0.86, so ~86% of the weight of a gallon of gasoline is carbon
A gallon of gasoline has a weight of about 75% of that of water, so
the weight of carbon in a gallon of gasoline is ~75% times ~%86, or ~64% that of a gallon of water.
Water weighs 8.35 pounds per gallon, so
the weight of carbon in a gallon of gasoline is ~0.64 times 8.35 pounds, or ~5.35pounds*.

Carbon dioxide is 1 atom of carbon to 2 atoms of oxygen.
Carbon has 12 mass-units while oxygen has 16.
CO2 has a weight of 12 plus 16 plus 16 mass-units,
ie CO2 has 44 total mass-units for every 12 mass-units of carbon it contains.
44 divided by 12 is 3.66. So 3.66 times the 5.35 pounds of carbon in 1 gallon of gasoline equals
19.6 pounds of CO2 produced for every gallon of gasoline burned*, which rounds to 20pounds.

* Remember this is a "spherical cow": ie gasoline's real carbon-to-hydrogen ratio has been replaced by a simplifying assumption. ie If I'd assumed that the "average gasoline molecule" had 9 carbon atoms (or fewer hydrogens per carbon), the amount of C02 produced would have been greater.


Good description but why assume anything other than 8 carbons? Octane has 8 carbons and the octane number of gasoline blends is the percentage of octane in that particular blend and the lowest blend, regular, is 87% while the highest, premium is in the 91-93 % range.
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Quoting ARiot:


The AL.com story has legs, but is one source who now can't be reached who made the "turned away by union" claim.

One source who backs off his hyperbolic claims when challenged isn't journalism worth reading.
Exactly.

And, when the original news station, WAFF, that put the story out there has started to walk it back it means it's bunk or a vast union led conspiracy. Take your pick.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:


My intention was not to poke fun at any of the destruction that has occurred at New York, connection to the photo was to the poor decision, in my opinion, to continue with a race in which demands resources that of which need to be directed elsewhere.

I meant no disrespect Taz, it shall be removed...


"Comedy is simply a funny way of being serious"

sometimes you have to find humor in chaos to cope with it.I personally didnt see any offense to your pic..
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EVACUATION IMMEDIATE

KENTUCKY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
953 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
KENTUCKY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AND METROSAFE IN LOUISVILLE
KENTUCKY.

KENTUCKY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AND LOUISVILLE METROSAFE ASK
THAT PEOPLE LIVING WITHIN A 1.2 MILE RADIUS OF DIXIE HIGHWAY AND
KATHERINE STATION ROAD CONTINUE THE EVACUATION UNTIL THE ALL CLEAR
IS GIVEN. THIS EVACUATION INCLUDES MOST LOCATIONS IN THE TOWN OF
WEST POINT KENTUCKY AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON
COUNTY...WESTERN BULLITT COUNTY...AND NORTHERN HARDIN COUNTY. AN
EXPLOSION OCCURRED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THE TRAIN DERAILMENT
SITE AND A FIRE CONTINUES TO BURN.

SHELTERS HAVE BEEN ESTABLISHED AT MULDRAUGH ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
LOCATED AT 202 WENDELL STREET IN MEADE COUNTY AND AT STUART MIDDLE SCHOOL
LOCATED AT 4601 VALLEY STATION ROAD IN JEFFERSON COUNTY. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...GO TO WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE AND CLICK ON
THE TOP NEWS ARTICLE.

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114717
Pretty ironic, pretty funny - Ark damaged by flooding

By The Phytophactor on 11/02/2012 09:22:00 AM

Production of a new movie "Noah" (I always hear "This is the Lord, Noah!" spoken in Bill Cosby's voice.) was halted in Oyster Bay, NY, because of, yes, you guessed it, flooding! Apparently their 405 foot long Ark replica (how big is that in cubits?), just like the one not found over and over again on Mt. Ararat, isn't very sea worthy....
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5996
Quoting Tazmanian:



this is not the time for jokes any one posting off topic photos at a time like this will be reported and I don't fine it funny there been hvy too svere damg in the back E and you guys have too be posting thing like Godzilla wish have noting to do with sandy and now is not the time to be posting funny things about new York adims I like that Godzilla photo re move


My intention was not to poke fun at any of the destruction that has occurred at New York, connection to the photo was to the poor decision, in my opinion, to continue with a race in which demands resources that of which need to be directed elsewhere.

I meant no disrespect Taz, it shall be removed...
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Quoting StormPro:
HUNTSVILLE, Alabama - Representatives with Huntsville Utilities and Joe Wheeler Cooperative, two area utilities mentioned in media reports claiming their crews were not allowed to help with storm aid in New Jersey because they were non-union, said this morning the story is untrue.The general manager of the other department mentioned, Decatur Utilities, has since verified claims that his workers were asked to affiliate with a union.



Read...


The AL.com story has legs, but is one source who now can't be reached who made the "turned away by union" claim.

One source who backs off his hyperbolic claims when challenged isn't journalism worth reading.
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Quoting StormPro:



Case in point...there are crews that have Mutual aide agreements, which by the way are 99.9% of the time executed long before a disaster hits, that are heading home...I guess all is well up there and they don't need my help or money huh? I live in south Louisiana, work in the disaster recovery industry and see this crap every time there is a disaster in the unionized northeast..I am speaking from experience, not a watered down newstory. I have friends in Springfield, New Jersey and I got my info from them
That may be but I don't know you, your background or your friends. To me, you are someone posting on the internet.

I'm going to take my news from official press releases and on record interviews.

There's been enough rumor mongering in this storm (that lying Twitter user who started the rumor of the flooding of the NYSE and that ConEd was shutting down power ahead of surge) I'd rather not see more get started that causes ill-will towards the people working their tails off to get people back to "normal".
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
Wow....Having this race at this time is inexcusable...

CNN article LINK direct quote....

""I think it's the perfect time to have it," said Wilson, who runs Bar East on First Avenue in Manhattan, which gets a front-row seat to the race every year. "I don't think the timing could have been better."






this is not the time for jokes any one posting off topic photos at a time like this will be reported and I don't fine it funny there been hvy too svere damg in the back E and you guys have too be posting thing like Godzilla wish have noting to do with sandy and now is not the time to be posting funny things about new York adims I like that Godzilla photo re move
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114717
Holding the NYC Marathon this soon after Sandy'ster?

Yet, I remember so many outsiders heavily criticizing New Orleans for going forward with Mardi Gras more than 6 months later, after Katrina.

Sheeessssshhhhhh....
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HUNTSVILLE, Alabama - Representatives with Huntsville Utilities and Joe Wheeler Cooperative, two area utilities mentioned in media reports claiming their crews were not allowed to help with storm aid in New Jersey because they were non-union, said this morning the story is untrue.The general manager of the other department mentioned, Decatur Utilities, has since verified claims that his workers were asked to affiliate with a union.



Read...
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Quoting entrelac:

But both JCP&L and the electrical worker's union in NJ have said this isn't the case. News reports have the union explicitly saying that they did not object to non-union crews.

The person with Decatur Utilities that originally made that statement has suddenly become unavailable for comment at the national news level, too, so maybe there's some miscommunication going on that is getting sorted out.

The bottom line is that the crews being turned away because they are non-union is false and has been soundly debunked.

I guess you must have lots of experience with electrical utilities and working with the IBEW. If so, I defer to your judgement. If not, you're being hoodwinked.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
Utility workers pelted with eggs after Bridgeport, Conn. mayor blasts provider

The people who did this in Bridgeport are despicable. Of course, there's no further assistance needed to restore power, so the folks may get a little unhappy when they are still without power next week at this time.
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I'm glad to see that story totally debunked. Thanks entrelac. It would be a sin if unions got in the way of recovery. And it goes to show you how wild rumors can start and spread during a crisis. Our own small utility sent 7 linemen and 3 bucket trucks up to Delaware. By the time they got to Homestead, they were called back as not needed. And it was explained on the radio about mutual aid agreements between associations and utility companies. I guess in South Florida with all the hurricanes we've had to recover from, it is almost a normal site to see strange utility companies. This disaster allows us to repay the kindness. Peace everyone.
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Survived Hugo. Didn't have power for FIVE weeks (got power back 2 days before Halloween 1989). In Charleston, we helped each other out. Made a an ice run to Beaufort and brought back a carload of ice for me AND my neighbors. Must say that cold beer NEVER tasted so good!

This should be an object lesson for anyone else on the East Coast that hasn't been hit by a storm in a while. ALWAYS expect the WORST...and plan accordingly. If you're going to leave, leave early. If you're going to ride it out, better have provisions for at least two weeks and have a canoe or rowboat if you have any chance of getting flooded. Get your car to higher ground. I had my Camaro stashed in my company's parking garage during Hugo. Car never got wet, much less get any damage.

Thoughts and prayers for you poor souls up in NJ/NY.
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Quoting entrelac:


No, it's not extortion and more people on the AL end of this mess are talking.



Kelly Kazek | kkazek@al.com By Kelly Kazek | kkazek@al.com
on November 02, 2012 at 8:57 AM, updated November 02, 2012 at 11:36 AM
Email | Print
Huntsville Utilities Huntsville Utilities crews during tornado recovery. (The Huntsville Times/Bob Gathany)

HUNTSVILLE, Alabama - Representatives with Huntsville Utilities and Joe Wheeler Cooperative, two area utilities mentioned in media reports claiming their crews were not allowed to help with storm aid in New Jersey because they were non-union, said this morning the story is untrue.

The general manager of the other department mentioned, Decatur Utilities, has since verified claims that his workers were asked to affiliate with a union.

See story here.

Bill Yell, spokesman for Huntsville Utilities, said nine of his employees are currently helping with recovery from Hurricane Sandy and had no union-related issues.

"That's a rumor," he said. "We are starting work this morning with Long Island Power Authority. We were headed to a New Jersey utility but they had all the crews they could handle."

A spokeswoman for Joe Wheeler Electrical Membership Cooperative said the crews from Trinity also are assisting with storm recovery and, in fact, are unionized.

"It is not true for us," she said. "I don't know how we got lumped in there (in that report). We sent eight guys to Maryland, not New Jersey. They have been there since before the storm but they've finished work and are headed home this morning."

The crews from Joe Wheeler EMC went to Denton, Md., in anticipation of the storm and worked with Choptank Electrical Cooperative.

Yell and Phillips said they have been inundated with calls from national media outlets in the wake of the report, including Fox News and CNN, and several newspapers in New Jersey.

Yell said going to assist with utilities recovery is not as simple as sending donated goods and requires a lot of coordination.

"We were not turned away," he said. "It's a lot more complicated than that. One of the problems is whenever this kind of thing happens people call and ask, 'Are you going to send crews out?' but it's not a situation where everybody jumps in truck and heads up there. You have to work through trade associations. You have mutual-aid agreements and you've got to find a system that needs you and is able to take you."

He said some systems don't use the same voltage and may have different configurations. "You don't just go up there and say, 'Hey, we're here. We're going to start putting up poles for you."


Because of the storm and snow, it took two days for his crews to arrive in New Jersey, where they learned they were not needed. The American Public Power Association then coordinated with the Long Island system and the Huntsville crews arrived there this morning, Yell said.

"We've been through enough of these situations," he said. "We know how these things work."



Case in point...there are crews that have Mutual aide agreements, which by the way are 99.9% of the time executed long before a disaster hits, that are heading home...I guess all is well up there and they don't need my help or money huh? I live in south Louisiana, work in the disaster recovery industry and see this crap every time there is a disaster in the unionized northeast..I am speaking from experience, not a watered down newstory. I have friends in Springfield, New Jersey and I got my info from them
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Quoting sar2401:

Great job of trying to smooth the troubled waters by Decatur, but the story still remains. Union affiliation was the issue that stalled the crew in Virginia, and they are now headed back to Alabama instead of helping to restore power in the affected areas. If you can't read between the lines on this, you've never worked with the IBEW.

But both JCP&L and the electrical worker's union in NJ have said this isn't the case. News reports have the union explicitly saying that they did not object to non-union crews.

The person with Decatur Utilities that originally made that statement has suddenly become unavailable for comment at the national news level, too, so maybe there's some miscommunication going on that is getting sorted out.

The bottom line is that the crews being turned away because they are non-union is false and has been soundly debunked.
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Quoting entrelac:


No, it's not extortion and more people on the AL end of this mess are talking.



Kelly Kazek | kkazek@al.com By Kelly Kazek | kkazek@al.com
on November 02, 2012 at 8:57 AM, updated November 02, 2012 at 11:36 AM
Email | Print
Huntsville Utilities Huntsville Utilities crews during tornado recovery. (The Huntsville Times/Bob Gathany)

HUNTSVILLE, Alabama - Representatives with Huntsville Utilities and Joe Wheeler Cooperative, two area utilities mentioned in media reports claiming their crews were not allowed to help with storm aid in New Jersey because they were non-union, said this morning the story is untrue.

The general manager of the other department mentioned, Decatur Utilities, has since verified claims that his workers were asked to affiliate with a union.

See story here.

Bill Yell, spokesman for Huntsville Utilities, said nine of his employees are currently helping with recovery from Hurricane Sandy and had no union-related issues.

"That's a rumor," he said. "We are starting work this morning with Long Island Power Authority. We were headed to a New Jersey utility but they had all the crews they could handle."

A spokeswoman for Joe Wheeler Electrical Membership Cooperative said the crews from Trinity also are assisting with storm recovery and, in fact, are unionized.

"It is not true for us," she said. "I don't know how we got lumped in there (in that report). We sent eight guys to Maryland, not New Jersey. They have been there since before the storm but they've finished work and are headed home this morning."

The crews from Joe Wheeler EMC went to Denton, Md., in anticipation of the storm and worked with Choptank Electrical Cooperative.

Yell and Phillips said they have been inundated with calls from national media outlets in the wake of the report, including Fox News and CNN, and several newspapers in New Jersey.

Yell said going to assist with utilities recovery is not as simple as sending donated goods and requires a lot of coordination.

"We were not turned away," he said. "It's a lot more complicated than that. One of the problems is whenever this kind of thing happens people call and ask, 'Are you going to send crews out?' but it's not a situation where everybody jumps in truck and heads up there. You have to work through trade associations. You have mutual-aid agreements and you've got to find a system that needs you and is able to take you."

He said some systems don't use the same voltage and may have different configurations. "You don't just go up there and say, 'Hey, we're here. We're going to start putting up poles for you."


Because of the storm and snow, it took two days for his crews to arrive in New Jersey, where they learned they were not needed. The American Public Power Association then coordinated with the Long Island system and the Huntsville crews arrived there this morning, Yell said.

"We've been through enough of these situations," he said. "We know how these things work."

Again, the issue is with Decatur Power, a non-union company. The other two companies mentioned are union, so no problems there. No matter how many press releases that get issued saying there were no union issues, there were. I expect companies with union crews to minimize these problems as much as possible in the press. Vinny and the boys at the IBEW wouldn't be happy if they didn't. :)
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Quoting StormPro:


And read it...they left because they wouldn't agree to Union Rules...extortion in the face of disaster....


No, it's not extortion and more people on the AL end of this mess are talking.


Kelly Kazek | kkazek@al.com By Kelly Kazek | kkazek@al.com
on November 02, 2012 at 8:57 AM, updated November 02, 2012 at 11:36 AM
Email | Print
Huntsville Utilities Huntsville Utilities crews during tornado recovery. (The Huntsville Times/Bob Gathany)

HUNTSVILLE, Alabama - Representatives with Huntsville Utilities and Joe Wheeler Cooperative, two area utilities mentioned in media reports claiming their crews were not allowed to help with storm aid in New Jersey because they were non-union, said this morning the story is untrue.

The general manager of the other department mentioned, Decatur Utilities, has since verified claims that his workers were asked to affiliate with a union.

See story here.

Bill Yell, spokesman for Huntsville Utilities, said nine of his employees are currently helping with recovery from Hurricane Sandy and had no union-related issues.

"That's a rumor," he said. "We are starting work this morning with Long Island Power Authority. We were headed to a New Jersey utility but they had all the crews they could handle."

A spokeswoman for Joe Wheeler Electrical Membership Cooperative said the crews from Trinity also are assisting with storm recovery and, in fact, are unionized.

"It is not true for us," she said. "I don't know how we got lumped in there (in that report). We sent eight guys to Maryland, not New Jersey. They have been there since before the storm but they've finished work and are headed home this morning."

The crews from Joe Wheeler EMC went to Denton, Md., in anticipation of the storm and worked with Choptank Electrical Cooperative.

Yell and Phillips said they have been inundated with calls from national media outlets in the wake of the report, including Fox News and CNN, and several newspapers in New Jersey.

Yell said going to assist with utilities recovery is not as simple as sending donated goods and requires a lot of coordination.

"We were not turned away," he said. "It's a lot more complicated than that. One of the problems is whenever this kind of thing happens people call and ask, 'Are you going to send crews out?' but it's not a situation where everybody jumps in truck and heads up there. You have to work through trade associations. You have mutual-aid agreements and you've got to find a system that needs you and is able to take you."

He said some systems don't use the same voltage and may have different configurations. "You don't just go up there and say, 'Hey, we're here. We're going to start putting up poles for you."


Because of the storm and snow, it took two days for his crews to arrive in New Jersey, where they learned they were not needed. The American Public Power Association then coordinated with the Long Island system and the Huntsville crews arrived there this morning, Yell said.

"We've been through enough of these situations," he said. "We know how these things work."
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Quoting entrelac:

That non-union story has been debunked by Decatur Utilities.


Decatur, Ala. --

Decatur Utilities sent a 6-man crew to the Northeast Wednesday, October 31, bound for Seaside Heights, NJ to assist with power restoration. Communications with Seaside Heights was poor due to lack of cell phone service in the area. Upon arriving at a staging area in Virginia, crews were held in place pending clarification of documents received from IBEW that implied a requirement of our employees to agree to union affiliation while working in the New York and New Jersey areas. It was and remains our understanding that agreeing to those requirements was a condition of being allowed to work in those areas. As we waited for clarification, we became aware that Seaside Heights had received the assitance they needed from other sources. To be clear, at no time were our crews "turned away" from the utility in Seaside Heights.

In connection with state and regional public power associations, Decatur Utilities attempted to contact other areas that needed assistance. However, based on the uncertainty of union requirements that we could not agree to and the uncertainty of whether a resolution could be reached, we ultimately made the decision to return them to Decatur after being stalled in the Virginia area most of the day on Thursday.




Great job of trying to smooth the troubled waters by Decatur, but the story still remains. Union affiliation was the issue that stalled the crew in Virginia, and they are now headed back to Alabama instead of helping to restore power in the affected areas. If you can't read between the lines on this, you've never worked with the IBEW.
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Thanks for the update Dr Jeff.
LOL, perhaps Morris Bender could provide us his model track error comparison graphic for TS Debby and Hurricane Isaac among several other storms, might not look so stellar for the ECMWF... ;)

Quoting sar2401:

Let's hope the GFS is more right than the ECMWF this time.


Will just have to watch the trends with lastest cycle runs. Dr Jeff mentioned the 06Z runs (and as we're seeing with newest 12Z GFS)... however, what wasn't mentioned was the Nov 2 0Z GFS 10 meter wind forecast for 5.5 days out, same Nov 7 12Z morning as the ECMWF he depicted, in a fair comparison, was a near identical match showing same sharp bands wrapping around the N side of the low -----



Nov 2 2012 0Z GFS forecast for Nov 7 2012 12Z, 10 meter wind / knots, courtesy NCEP / NOAA / NOMADS.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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