Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Thank you Dr. Masters....Such a sad situation in the Northeast

Thanks Doc

Thank you Dr. Masters! :-)

WunderGirl12

Thanks Dr.

I'd love to know how much energy that Sandy burned overall.

Just this alone is an incredible amount!!!

"Diameter of ocean with 12' seas at landfall: 1500 miles"

Thanks Dr.

901. hydrus 7:21 PM GMT on November 01, 2012 +0

Quoting sar2401:

I don't know about on the ball, but 27 years of law enforcement and search and rescue work did teach me a few things. :) I know for sure what doesn't work, and having us going out and arresting people doesn't work. I'm not sure why turning off utilities is such a hard concept to understand. It just takes some pre-planning on the part of utilities and emergency management. We got really good at this in California during the days of rolling blackouts, so it's not technically all that difficult.

I like the idea of shutting off utilities. By now most people living on the coast and other regions subject to natural disasters must realize that there are certain consequences for living where they do. If danger is imminent, cutting utilities not only protects expensive and vital equipment, but makes some people realize how serious the danger could be( they loose money when killing the power ). I been through many storms, the power is usually lost anyway, and could be restored to folks quicker if it was shut off in the first place.... Just my harmless opinion.

Quoting TomballTXPride:
That 55 billion number is grossly underdone. Unfortunately, it'll be much more by the time the dust settles.

Possibly....We shall see

Hurricane Sandy did a lot of damage to the NE. It is kind of sad to hear about all of the damage.

WunderGirl12

P.S. I wrote a blog comparing Hurricane Sandy and Hurricane Irene. Check it out! Comments appreciated.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/WunderGirl12/com ment.html?entrynum=1

Hurricane Sandy

Wow, when you lay down the facts like that, it really makes one realize the scope of just how ferocious this storm really was. There are some things that I was not yet aware of, like the amount of snow, or the fact that there are still many that are missing in various countries.

Sandy sets a precedent for sure.

I wonder what's in store for the remainder of hurricane season? If it's over, it certainly went out with a bigger bang than any other season from what I can remember, but there are a few areas of interest out there, including in the central Caribbean and two out in the open Atlantic.

thanks doc
sandy will be something of intense debate
for a bit i reckon

By Miguel Llanos, NBC News

Hundreds of thousands of people in New York City, Long Island and New Jersey may not have their power return for up to 10 more days, officials warned Thursday. Meanwhile, weather forecasters said a winter storm could hit the Northeast next week.

In New York City,  the utility ConEd said the 228,000 customers in Manhattan still without power should have it back by Saturday, but that would leave more than 400,000 elsewhere potentially in the dark beyond Saturday.

Follow @NBCNewsUS

Absolutely astounding numbers, and very sobering ones.

I did just notice that the government of Jamaica is estimating eventual damages to that island of about $5 billion, roughly 300 times more than the smallish $16.5 million shown in the Wikipedia graph. I'll go make, or at least suggest, the change. (Jamaica Information Service)

Anyway, a bone for the numerologists among us to gnaw on. I'm not one, but couldn't help but notice the following in the above list:

9.45: in feet, Sandy's maximum storm surge at Bergen Point, NJ
945: in millibars, Sandy's minimum pressure at Atlantic City, NJ
945: in miles, Sandy's diameter of tropical storm-force winds at landfall

guess we will never know her landfall windspeed in s e cuba the few photos that were released showed shredded trees so im guessing 110-115 she was a tight system then

That death toll continues to unfortunately rise in the U.S and other countries are still missing people.

The irony is the fact that up until Sandy all the female storms were a complete utter joke.Sad situation all around.

Thanks Jeff. Amazing numbers...

12z Euro

Quoting LostTomorrows:
Wow, when you lay down the facts like that, it really makes one realize the scope of just how ferocious this storm really was. There are some things that I was not yet aware of, like the amount of snow, or the fact that there are still many that are missing in various countries.

Sandy sets a precedent for sure.

I wonder what's in store for the remainder of hurricane season? If it's over, it certainly went out with a bigger bang than any other season from what I can remember, but there are a few areas of interest out there, including in the central Caribbean and two out in the open Atlantic.

I think we may see a longer season past November

Quoting Neapolitan:
Absolutely astounding numbers, and very sobering ones.

I did just notice that the government of Jamaica is estimating eventual damages to that island of about $5 billion, roughly 300 times more than the smallish $16.5 million shown in the Wikipedia graph. I'll go make, or at least suggest, the change. (Jamaica Information Service)

Anyway, a bone for the numerologists among us to gnaw on. I'm not one, but couldn't help but notice the following in the above list:

9.45: in feet, Sandy's maximum storm surge at Bergen Point, NJ
945: in millibars, Sandy's minimum pressure at Atlantic City, NJ
945: in miles, Sandy's diameter of tropical storm-force winds at landfall

Wow so Sandy had about ~75% the diameter of Tropical Cyclone Tip which was 1,350 miles wide.

12z CMC

Quoting ncstorm:
12z Euro

wow 982 mb is not a weak storm at all....

Quoting ILwthrfan:


wow 982 mb is not a weak storm at all....

I just posted the CMC as well..this doesnt look good..

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
By Miguel Llanos, NBC News

Hundreds of thousands of people in New York City, Long Island and New Jersey may not have their power return for up to 10 more days, officials warned Thursday. Meanwhile, weather forecasters said a winter storm could hit the Northeast next week.

In New York City,  the utility ConEd said the 228,000 customers in Manhattan still without power should have it back by Saturday, but that would leave more than 400,000 elsewhere potentially in the dark beyond Saturday.

Follow @NBCNewsUS

vortex sigs indicate something dropping down from western lakes cen plains to gulf coast n fla then up and out over ne they got seven days to get things in some what of an order

What Those Who Understand Atmospheric Physics Are Talking About After Sandy

Posted by Dan Satterfield

Asking if Hurricane Sandy was caused by climate change is like asking someone at the South Pole which way is north. This kind of storm could almost certainly form in a world where the CO2 levels have been unchanging and Arctic sea ice levels were stable. That said, anyone who claims Sandy was, or was not, caused by the changing climate just doesn’t get it.

If it seems like extreme storms are increasing over the Northeast USA, then you are right. The climate extremes index by the NOAA NCDC agrees.

It may be possible with some attribution and detection studies to say something about how much more likely it was for this storm to have occurred but that is for the future, and it will not be easy. So, what can we say about Sandy that is scientifically accurate??

Plenty.

1. The oceans are over a degree celsius warmer than they were a century ago ,and we had record warm oceans (2-3 degrees C above normal!) off the East Coast for most of the last several months.

2. The planet is a degree celsius warmer than it was a century ago, and this means the atmosphere on the whole is holding 5-7% more water vapor than it was 80 odd years ago.

3. Sea level has risen at least a foot over the past century, and along the coast of Delaware and Virginia, the sinking shorelines mean the water level is over 18 inches higher than even 60 years ago. Ask someone in Jersey who has a foot of water in their house if it would have been better if the water was 18 inches lower.

What we CAN say is this:

If a storm exactly like Sandy were to have hit in October of 1912, it would have been less wet with a storm surge that was lower. We can also say that a storm exactly like Sandy 90 years from now will be much wetter with water levels at least 24 inches higher. (The Mid-Atlantic coast is sinking at the rate of a foot a century, and the sea is rising at the same rate already. That’s two feet if nothing changes! The best science says the sea alone will rise 36 inches over the next century as the planet warms and the oceans expand.)

What meteorologists like myself, and climate researchers are talking about is the huge blocking high over Greenland. October or November hurricanes recurve into the Atlantic because of a much stronger fall jet stream, but the Greenland block turned Sandy into the coast. The track of Sandy was very RARE. Nearly unheard of actually, especially for this time of year. Dr. Jeff Masters has an excellent post about the Greenland block and how rare it is this time of year. Finish this post then read his.

Could the loss of Arctic sea ice be a factor in that big Greenland high pressure system. Dr. Jennifer Francis has research that says yes. (Andy Revkin at Dot Earth has a good post about this as well here.) Would the high have developed anyhow? Perhaps, but it would seem ridiculous to assume that the amazing loss of Arctic Ice would have little effect on the atmosphere over the Northern Hemisphere. That claim would be an extraordinary supposition that goes against the laws of physics and would require some profound evidence. The shoe is on the other foot now I think.

Rising sea levels and a warming planet are sneaking up on us little by little, but it will not be perceived that way. Instead, it will be realized in sudden and catastrophic events like floods, hurricanes and heat waves and droughts.

As I write this, 63 million people across 7 states are still in the dark…

Source

Quoting LostTomorrows:
Wow, when you lay down the facts like that, it really makes one realize the scope of just how ferocious this storm really was. There are some things that I was not yet aware of, like the amount of snow, or the fact that there are still many that are missing in various countries.

Sandy sets a precedent for sure.

I wonder what's in store for the remainder of hurricane season? If it's over, it certainly went out with a bigger bang than any other season from what I can remember, but there are a few areas of interest out there, including in the central Caribbean and two out in the open Atlantic.

LostTomorrows,

I think that the hurricane season may in fact extend past November, due to the three areas of interest that you mentioned. However, I sure hope that the hurricane season does end with just Sandy because we don't need another disaster in the U.S. (And because I live in Florida, I have a high probability of being hit by a hurricane.)

WunderGirl12

Quoting ncstorm:
12z Euro

Are we really doing round 2 again?.

We better get snow out of this pattern.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Absolutely astounding numbers, and very sobering ones.

I did just notice that the government of Jamaica is estimating eventual damages to that island of about $5 billion, roughly 300 times more than the smallish $16.5 million shown in the Wikipedia graph. I'll go make, or at least suggest, the change. (Jamaica Information Service)

Anyway, a bone for the numerologists among us to gnaw on. I'm not one, but couldn't help but notice the following in the above list:

9.45: in feet, Sandy's maximum storm surge at Bergen Point, NJ
945: in millibars, Sandy's minimum pressure at Atlantic City, NJ
945: in miles, Sandy's diameter of tropical storm-force winds at landfall

Thanks JP.........Very scary numbers

Quoting hydrus:

901. hydrus 7:21 PM GMT on November 01, 2012 +0

Quoting sar2401:

I don't know about on the ball, but 27 years of law enforcement and search and rescue work did teach me a few things. :) I know for sure what doesn't work, and having us going out and arresting people doesn't work. I'm not sure why turning off utilities is such a hard concept to understand. It just takes some pre-planning on the part of utilities and emergency management. We got really good at this in California during the days of rolling blackouts, so it's not technically all that difficult.

I like the idea of shutting off utilities. By now most people living on the coast and other regions subject to natural disasters must realize that there are certain consequences for living where they do. If danger is imminent, cutting utilities not only protects expensive and vital equipment, but makes some people realize how serious the danger could be( they loose money when killing the power ). I been through many storms, the power is usually lost anyway, and could be restored to folks quicker if it was shut off in the first place.... Just my harmless opinion.

Cutting off utilities would have spared the neighborhood in Queens from losing 100+ houses.

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Thanks JP.........Very scary numbers

Sorry

Quoting washingtonian115:
Are we really doing round 2 again?.

We better get snow out of this pattern.

It looks like it unfortunately..I think the cold air will be in place on the coast for snow

Quoting ncstorm:


It looks like it unfortunately..I think the cold air will be in place on the coast for snow

Something to watch

The scale is staggering: Superstorm Sandy flooded New York City’s network of underground and vehicular tunnels with up to 400 million gallons of water. On Thursday, the U.S. military began to bring some of its heavy equipment into place – from generators to powerful water pumps to trucks flown from across the country. But, as the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers emphasized to Danger Room, they’re just getting started with the cleanup.

The work for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in Manhattan starts at the Brooklyn Battery Tunnel, the major underwater thoroughfare for cars passing between Brooklyn and Manhattan. Corps crews assembled at South Ferry, near the Manhattan entrance to the tunnel, have begun receiving power generators and other preliminary equipment by barge from the Navy, ahead of the high-head submersible pumps or centrifugal pumps necessary to start drainage. Task number one is to clear out the underpass to the tunnel, a task that the Corps’ Jim Pogue estimates will take about 24 hours, coming from two different sites. The expected extraction: 10 million gallons.

The crews have limited access to the submerged tunnels: there’s “only one way in and one way out,” Pogue tells Danger Room. Worse, it’s a moving target. As the water recedes, “you’re chasing it down the tunnel so the pumps have to be continuously repositioned.”


via www.wired.com/dangerroom

Quoting ncstorm:


It looks like it unfortunately..I think the cold air will be in place on the coast for snow

I would like to see a few flakes here in D.C all though the chances of that happening are slim.

I'm not to sure why people are getting on me saying "Peoplr cared about where you were and you slam them".Never asked anyone to care and I'm sure most of them would have loved to see me gone.I'll e-mail you ncstorm.

Thank you Dr Masters. I hope I'm wrong but I thing $55 Bil is light

modified to correct typo

Speaking of electrical outages, a garbage truck just pulled out of a neighboring parking lot with a Dumpster raised, pulling down the line and the power pole to which it was attached. Power in the entire neighborhood is gone, and now the police have asked us to evacuate, as the truck is on fire. Very inconvenient. And that's just a single pole in a single neighborhood; I can't help but think how bad it is for folks in the Northeast facing tens of thousands of similar situations, and for far longer a period of time than this one little neighborhood will.

FWIW, it should be Hurricane Sandy, not just Superstorm Sandy, to avoid confusion.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Absolutely astounding numbers, and very sobering ones.

I did just notice that the government of Jamaica is estimating eventual damages to that island of about $5 billion, roughly 300 times more than the smallish $16.5 million shown in the Wikipedia graph. I'll go make, or at least suggest, the change. (Jamaica Information Service)

Anyway, a bone for the numerologists among us to gnaw on. I'm not one, but couldn't help but notice the following in the above list:

9.45: in feet, Sandy's maximum storm surge at Bergen Point, NJ
945: in millibars, Sandy's minimum pressure at Atlantic City, NJ
945: in miles, Sandy's diameter of tropical storm-force winds at landfall

From Wiki:

In number theory, an abundant number or excessive number is a number for which the sum of its proper divisors is greater than the number itself. 12 is the first abundant number. Its proper divisors are 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6 for a total of 16. The amount by which the sum exceeds the number is the abundance. 12 has an abundance of 4, for example.

The smallest odd abundant number is 945.

Hope that helps.

Quoting FtMyersgal:
Thank you Dr Masters. I hope I'm wrong but I thing $55 Mil is light

It's with a "B" gal

Quoting Neapolitan:
Anyway, a bone for the numerologists among us to gnaw on. I'm not one, but couldn't help but notice the following in the above list:

9.45: in feet, Sandy's maximum storm surge at Bergen Point, NJ
945: in millibars, Sandy's minimum pressure at Atlantic City, NJ
945: in miles, Sandy's diameter of tropical storm-force winds at landfall

Ah ha! If you take that number (945) and subtract a number created from the first three integers arranged in descending order (i.e. 3, 2, 1 or 321) and then if you subtract the resulting number (624) from 666 you get... 42! Which we all know is the answer to Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything.

So, (keeping in mind that humor is an effective antidote for stress*), this storm was clearly planned out.




*The sole purpose of my posting this is to illicit one or two chuckles.

EDIT - Holy mackerel... I just noticed this ended up being comment 42. Now I'm scared...

EDIT #2 - You people rock! I'm just getting ready to leave work for the day and this comment about the number 42, which is comment number 42, officially has 42 pluses. I'm sure somebody is gonna plus this up to 43 at some point and mess up this lovely symmetry, but for now y'all have made my evening. If you like symmetry and want to show your support without messing it up, please just plus my next comment down. Speaking of which, my comment count for the day is officially 666 (a number included in my calculations above). With this numerological nexus I will be walking out of my office with a smile on my obsessive-compulsive face (and my tongue planted firmly in my cheek, because I know this is all purely arbitrary...). Thanks, friends!

Quoting FtMyersgal:
Thank you Dr Masters. I hope I'm wrong but I thing $55 Mil is light

And I have a picture gal

Quoting MrMixon:


Ah ha! If you take that number (945) and subtract a number created from the first three integers arranged in descending order (i.e. 3, 2, 1 or 321) and then if you subtract the resulting number (624) from 666 you get... 42! Which we all know is the answer to Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything.

So, (keeping in mind that humor is an effective antidote for stress*), this storm was clearly planned out.




*The sole purpose of my posting this is to illicit one or two chuckles.

I am glad you explained that. It was going over this blonde's head!:)

Quoting washingtonian115:
I would like to see a few flakes here in D.C all though the chances of that happening are slim.

I'm not to sure why people are getting on me saying "Peoplr cared about where you were and you slam them".Never asked anyone to care and I'm sure most of them would have loved to see me gone.I'll e-mail you ncstorm.

Dont worry about it Wash! I always get "told off" but I dont let it bother me..continue posting and be you!

In the wake of this Catastrophy that had its effect in the eastern U.S. we share the pain and struggles of our brothers and sister that are suffering. But at least we know that there is hope, since there lots of resourses,to recuperate. But a few hundred miles to the south-east of Florida exist the most unfortunate, country in our hemisphere. The poorest one as well. But also it seems that mother nature has something against them, no other place in America has suffered as much as Haiti, ....just saying , REMEMBER HAITI !!!

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
It's with a "B" gal

My bad. $55Bil is still light IMO

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
And I have a picture gal

Very nice! :)

Quoting kwgirl:
I am glad you explained that. It was going over this blonde's head!:)

I just dyed my hair blonde last week, You should have asked me a week ago and I would have got it..........Dammit Jim

Quoting Neapolitan:
Speaking of electrical outages, a garbage truck just pulled out of a neighboring parking lot with the Dumpster raised, pulling down the line and the power pole to which it was attached. Power in the entire neigbhorhood is gone, and now they have us evacuating as the truck is on fire. Very inconvenient. And that's just a single pole in a single neighborhood. I can't help but think how bad it is for folks in the Northeast ffacing tens of thousands of similar situations.

FPL?

Quoting FtMyersgal:


My bad. $55Bil is still light IMO

I agree with you and have been thinking that all along once I saw the subways flooded. That in itself is major. They are not just going to dry everything off and run the trains. Then talk about restoring the Jersey shore, or even just hardening it against rising seas. Major money and time. 10 years for Jersey. I am not too up on subways and what is actually down there and the type of work it will take, but 1 year would be my guess, saying they have to rip out and replace. One good thing ( you must always look on the bright side of life, ta da, ta da da da da da!) is that there will be plenty of work to do. This will get people working.