Why did Hurricane Sandy take such an unusual track into New Jersey?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:33 PM GMT on October 31, 2012

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We're used to seeing hurricane-battered beaches and flooded cities in Florida, North Carolina, and the Gulf Coast. But to see these images from the Jersey Shore and New York City in the wake of Hurricane Sandy is a shocking experience. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in a portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much, and is too far north. How did this happen? How was a hurricane able to move from southeast to northwest at landfall, so far north, and so late in hurricane season? We expect hurricanes to move from east to west in the tropics, where the prevailing trade winds blow that direction. But the prevailing wind direction reverses at mid-latitudes, flowing predominately west-to-east, due to the spin of the Earth. Hurricanes that penetrate to about Florida's latitude usually get caught up in these westerly winds, and are whisked northeastwards, out to sea. However, the jet stream, that powerful band of upper-atmosphere west-to-east flowing air, has many dips and bulges. These troughs of low pressure and ridges of high pressure allow winds at mid-latitudes to flow more to the north or to the south. Every so often, a trough in the jet stream bends back on itself when encountering a ridge of high pressure stuck in place ahead of it. These "negatively tilted" troughs have winds that flow from southeast to northwest. It is this sort of negatively tilted trough that sucked in Sandy and allowed the hurricane to take such an unusual path into New Jersey.


Figure 1. Inlet section of Atlantic City, N.J., after Hurricane Sandy. Image credit: 6 ABC Action News.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 besides Sandy was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. However, the Vagabond Hurricane hit in September, when the jet stream is typically weaker and farther to the north. It is quite extraordinary that Sandy was able to hit New Jersey in late October, when the jet stream is typically stronger and farther south, making recurvature to the northeast much more likely than in September.


Figure 2. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

The blocking ridge that steered Sandy into New Jersey
A strong ridge of high pressure parked itself over Greenland beginning on October 20, creating a "blocking ridge" that prevented the normal west-to-east flow of winds over Eastern North America. Think of the blocking ridge like a big truck parked over Greenland. Storms approaching from the west (like the fall low pressure system that moved across the U.S. from California to Pennsylvania last week) or from the south (Hurricane Sandy) were blocked from heading to the northeast. Caught in the equivalent of an atmospheric traffic jam, the two storms collided over the Northeast U.S., combined into one, and are now waiting for the truck parked over Greenland to move. The strength of the blocking ridge, as measured by the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), was quite high--about two standard deviations from average, something that occurs approximately 5% of the time. When the NAO is in a strong negative phase, we tend to have blocking ridges over Greenland.


Figure 3. Jet stream winds at a pressure of 300 mb on October 29, 2012, as Hurricane Sandy approached the coast of New Jersey. Note that the wind direction over New Jersey (black arrows) was from the southeast, due to a negatively tilted trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. caused by a strong blocking ridge of high pressure over Greenland. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Arctic sea ice loss can cause blocking ridges
Blocking ridges occur naturally, but are uncommon over Greenland this time of year. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, blocking near the longitude of Greenland (50°W) only occurs about 2% of the time in the fall. These odds rise to about 6% in winter and spring. As I discussed in an April post, Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns, three studies published in the past year have found that the jet stream has been getting stuck in unusually strong blocking patterns in recent years. These studies found that the recent record decline in Arctic sea ice could be responsible, since this heats up the pole, altering the Equator-to-pole temperature difference, forcing the jet stream to slow down, meander, and get stuck in large loops. The 2012 Arctic sea ice melt season was extreme, with sea ice extent hitting a record lows. Could sea ice loss have contributed to the blocking ridge that steered Sandy into New Jersey? It is possible, but we will need to much more research on the subject before we make such a link, as the studies of sea ice loss on jet stream patterns are so new. The author of one of the new studies, Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers, had this say in a recent post by Andy Revkin in his Dot Earth blog: "While it’s impossible to say how this scenario might have unfolded if sea-ice had been as extensive as it was in the 1980s, the situation at hand is completely consistent with what I’d expect to see happen more often as a result of unabated warming and especially the amplification of that warming in the Arctic."

Jeff Masters

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7-day for the Tampa Bay area.................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41002
Why are people still b****'in about the NHC's decision?.I'm really annoyed get over it all ready that was days ago and Sandy has moved on.
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Quoting LostTomorrows:


I made that type of comment many blogs ago, and your thinking is about the same as mine.
Why no comment on Nadine? Haha.


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I don't see what the discussion about the NHC choices was.
Things were set into motion that could not be undone.

They made a decision. The warnings about the system were still disseminated, and frankly, its a coin toss as to whether hurricane warnings or high wind warnings were necessary....but either way, does it really matter?
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15 UTC map of October 1954 showing Hurricane Hazel and the meteorological set-up.
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Quoting zschmiez:


Can you point to a source that indicates 1-min sustained winds over land of 74 mph? I've seen plenty of GUSTS over 74, but as we all know, gusts do not a hurricane make.

But it does sound like TS warning should have been in place. would anyone have complained if they "made-up" a post-tropical storm warning on the spot???
it was NOT even a tropical storm..it was a cold noreaster, very strong and powerful yes..but NOT..tropical in nature..why keep going on this
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41002
anyway..a few showers might be headed our way..good.....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41002
IF..you did not prepare, if you didnt leave when asked, its NOT the NHC's fault period..for days and days the NHC said..a very dangerous storm was coming and even some here said it was all hype huh...well BOOM came the wake up call..next time..listen and prepare..simple as that like we do here along the gulf coast..if your a mile or more away from the water..its not far enough..leave..no more needs to be said..it is UP to EACH person..to make his/her own choices in a situation like this..not the NHC or the government..its up to YOU every time
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41002
Quoting Autistic2:
This is for GRO in post 391

https://www.citizensfla.com/about/CitizensAssessm ents.cfm

Last year citizens assessed my car ins 3% boat ins 3% home owners 3% All three are assessed against my property tax. Only because it is a state agency can the levy an assessment on the auto and boat on my POPERTY tax. This means if I don't pay it they won't cancel my insurance with allstate as I paid that. They will just take my house for not paying my property tax.

A scam a private company could never get away with.

Everyone in the state with any kind of insurance is assessed something by citizens and the amount is totally up to them (to a point)


Autistic, first, thank you for the link. It was interesting. However, if you read the article carefully, it is an assessment which clearly states the different assessments which may be levied if there is a deficit. It is a common practice with all insurance companies.

This is something which will affect us all on this blog. Almost all insured people in the state of Florida are still currently paying and assessment charge for the hurricanes in 2005 on their policies, regardless of who underwrites them.

I am not an insurance expert, but it is quite conceivable that people in other states NOT in the areas of the NE, may be assessed a surcharge for the deficits in the disaster areas. If anyone in Florida looks at their policies closely, the section of "Mandatory Additional charges", includes 2005 Catastrophic Emergency Assessment 2007 Guarantee
Assessment and a number of others.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I can give you SFMR readings that occurred as the storm made landfall, as we can't expect there to be data for the storm over the entire area. A lot of them may have lost power, for example.
I was wondering how many structures with anemometers went down before the actual landfall of Sandy. ..Would have been nice to have those readings..
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Quoting biff4ugo:
Do NorEasters make landfall days after the weather has arrived? What did people think was comming ashore, a double-spiral shaped gust front?

If you didn't post a hurricane warning on the gulf coast because it was extratropical, we would be confused by a strong wind advisory. Is the same true for an area that hasn't lived through a hurricane that has not been over land for several days?

90mph wind and life threatening/record breaking/subway flooding storm surge warnings sounds very comprehensible to me.

I saw maps showing areas that should expect storm surge. Were those not shown on local news stations?

P.S. I know that I and my family have been spoiled for years since we get info from here that is hot off the press 24/7 in the comments section. I don't know what other people see or don't see.


A lot of people don't watch the weather until AFTER they learn something is happening. This was supposedly a contributing factor to Katrina's loss of life and other issues*.

You have to remember people on this blog follow storms when they are nothing more than a ghost in the global model's 14 day forecast, so they know "something" is happened in the middle of Africa days or even a week before it hits water.

Not all people don't do that. If they're at a party or a sporting event when the warning is given, you might not actually learn about it until 8 to 12 or more hours later, because you might go straight home and go to sleep, for example, without checking the news or weather.

I figure this really only covers a couple percent of people, but it only takes less than one percent to explain all of Katrina's casualties.



I think in the case of levees and sea walls, including the ones Sandy has broken, the public needs to be aware that these safety structures are not "infallible". they are designed as a best effort or at least a decent effort to protect life and property, but I think everyone should leave anyway, even if the levee or sea wall is supposedly coded for the type of storm that is coming, because you just never know what might happen.


If everyone leaves NOLA by August 28, then Katrina's total death toll would have been around 400, instead of nearly 2000.


Now you can't do anything with people who don't listen. That's part of our "rights" in this country. You have a "right" to be irresponsible and get yourself killed, if that's what you choose, but you don't have a right to be irresponsible and get your children killed, for example, and that should be put forward as an enforcement mechanism for mandatory evacuations. So to me, it should be illegal for adults to stay behind with their children, but if a man wants to stay behind to protect his property from potential looters, fine, but they should be legally required to send the children away with the wife or some other relative.

The point of all of this is that some problems in human decision making can't be legislated away, even when the "ideal" seems straightforward.


I figure most of the deaths directly caused by Sandy were avoidable, except perhaps any heart attacks caused by elevated stress. Most of the "secondary deaths' caused during preparations and cleanup are also avoidable.

People without professional logging or tree care experience should not try to cut down partially felled trees, because they don't know what they're doing. The tree can kick back, roll, or other effects and either fall on them, or the saw kicks back and cuts them, etc. It's just not worth it, and yet this same drama gets played out over and over every time a major storm hits. Often these post-storm cleanup accidents actually cause more injuries and deaths than the storm itself, in spite of safety warnings.
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Things are progressing. Shock, denial, anger, whining ...
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6100
As a layperson in the NE, I can't see what could possibly have been done differently or better if we had received full-on hurricane warnings.

First, many around here (I'm in MA) regard hurricanes as something of a joke, because so many dire predictions have fizzled out. The worst effects of Irene in New England came from rainfall, and Sandy was known not to be much of a rainmaker in the Northeast. So hurricane warnings would have been met with a few eye-rolls.

Second, most people expect hurricanes to have fairly tight windfields. Upon learning Sandy would land in NJ rather than CT or Long Island, many people assumed we would receive almost nothing of note. The local mets really had to strain their voices to convince people that this was not a normal, tight hurricane.

All that said, despite the hype and warnings I still believe that it was hard to understand what we were in for. I saw very different windspeed predictions on the local news vs. here in the commnts vs. an interactive tool on the Boston Globe's website that promised no more than 30 mph winds per the NWS in my town. The windspeed probability cone also understated the damage. Part of the problem is that there was no similar storm in recent memory that anybody could compare Sandy to, so it was hard to visualize its strength. However, I'd also say that the TV mets spent an awful lot of airtime harping on the meteorological uniqueness of the storm, and some of that time would probably had better been spent giving more specific examples of potential threats by locality.

Nobody I know expected to turn on the TV and see photos of Katrina-like destruction on the Jersey Shore, and I don't think a simple Cat 1 Hurricane warning would have cured that.
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Quoting Econundertow:


I thought it was very strange the NHC would indicated a hurricane over NJ/Delaware/S. Pennsylvania and not have any hurricane/tropical storm warnings anywhere but Cape Hatteras and Bermuda.

I don't think there was any ulterior motives but I did think it was unusual and still do.
not strange at all, the H over land in white, meaning non tropical..all NON tropical storms are handled by the NWS
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41002
Quoting zschmiez:


Can you point to a source that indicates 1-min sustained winds over land of 74 mph? I've seen plenty of GUSTS over 74, but as we all know, gusts do not a hurricane make.

But it does sound like TS warning should have been in place. would anyone have complained if they "made-up" a post-tropical storm warning on the spot???


I can give you SFMR readings that occurred as the storm made landfall, as we can't expect there to be data for the storm over the entire area. A lot of them may have lost power, for example.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24488
Whoever was responsible for that bad judgement within NOAA should resign as well.

Consider the public confusion that would have occurred if widespread east coast hurricane/tropical storm watches or warnings were issued and then got canceled because Sandy transitioned earlier than it did. No question NOAA/NWS made the right call.
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Unusual, yes. Was an unusual storm.

NHC explained over and over in their storm discussions that they were not issuing tropical watches and warnings, that local NWS offices would (add: issue appropriate warnings). On Sunday (maybe Saturday) right at the top of their main Sandy page, NHC linked to the Eastern Region NWS in big red letters that indicated watches and warnings could be found at the link. Anyone savvy enough to seek out the NHC site for info could not have missed it. If anything, perhaps sites like this one that regurgitate the NHC cone could have done a better job of indicating why the warning stopped at NC and where further warnings could be found.
your 100% right on this, it was the NWS that should and would give out the warnings, saw the message numerous times before sandy hit
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41002
Quoting CybrTeddy:
No hurricane warning was needed because it wasn't expected to be a hurricane at landfall. This was accurate. However, hurricane force winds were experienced by many people before it made landfall and while it was tropical.



Can you point to a source that indicates 1-min sustained winds over land of 74 mph? I've seen plenty of GUSTS over 74, but as we all know, gusts do not a hurricane make.

But it does sound like TS warning should have been in place. would anyone have complained if they "made-up" a post-tropical storm warning on the spot???
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648. DFWjc
Quoting Chucktown:


Just like in the movie Billy Madison, we are all dumber now from watching that video link. I would like to know what she is smoking however.


Agreed, I know I don't know half as much as some of the people on here, but come on, even just by listening to her it's just another scare tactic.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


I don't remember them calling it a Superstorm until after landfall. The media (TWC, CNN) were calling a hurricane.
That is correct. The min. it came on shore they started calling it a superstorm.
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Arctic sea ice fluctuations are not drastic enough to cause that kind of anomaly in the jet stream. Further, the Arctic sea ice goes above and below average, depending on your snapshot and what climatologists you are going to pay attention to. Man-made global warming is a media-created, political agenda-driven falsehood.

Meteorologists can't even get forecasts accurate most of the time without having to change them within a 24-hour period even with all the technology we have today, much less make claims of global warming cycles being man-made as opposed to natural, and be accurate. The most accurate tool we have is the satellite, and they did not really ramp up for climate study until 1979. What did we use for data before then? Not much, and much of it was subjective observation, not raw data.

Thanks for allowing me my viewpoint.

stratcat
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LOLOLOLOL

GFS blizzard for central US:

A foot of snow:


And a cold front that clases with 50-70F air and no instability to produce:


Rain rain rain.
Gotta love these funny long range GFS runs.
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Morning Hydrus, was reading about that earlier today actually. Hazel does remind me of Sandy.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24488
I think the NHC should have continued issuing warning, originally Sandy was supposed to transition but it should have been evident as it was turning back towards the coast that she might not. Besides the NHC wind field while Sandy was still a tropical cyclone showed large swaths of coastline under tropical storm force winds, but despite ts force winds from a tropical cyclone they didn't issue a warning? Also why did they have to hand over the warnings could they have doubled up? When there is a strong thunderstorm approaching I usually see a list of several types of watches and warnings that I assume the public doesn't look at too closely. So when the worst storm to hit the US since Ike is barreling towards NYC why not add Hurricane Warning to the list of other warnings? maybe that would have helped the message get across. I think its ridiculous that they just assumed it would be extropical at the time and therefore wasn't their division.
My two cents, feel free to disagree
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Quoting Econundertow:


I thought it was very strange the NHC would indicated a hurricane over NJ/Delaware/S. Pennsylvania and not have any hurricane/tropical storm warnings anywhere but Cape Hatteras and Bermuda.

I don't think there was any ulterior motives but I did think it was unusual and still do.
Unusual, yes. Was an unusual storm.

NHC explained over and over in their storm discussions that they were not issuing tropical watches and warnings, that local NWS offices would (add: issue appropriate warnings). On Sunday (maybe Saturday) right at the top of their main Sandy page, NHC linked to the Eastern Region NWS in big red letters that indicated watches and warnings could be found at the link. Anyone savvy enough to seek out the NHC site for info could not have missed it. If anything, perhaps sites like this one that regurgitate the NHC cone could have done a better job of indicating why the warning stopped at NC and where further warnings could be found.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
No hurricane warning was needed because it wasn't expected to be a hurricane at landfall. This was accurate. However, hurricane force winds were experienced by many people before it made landfall and while it was tropical.

It matters little though, because the message was communicated the same, and the media helped hype it up. One of the rare times an event almost lives up to media hype.
Mornin Ted...Nothin like a huge Nor,Easter grabbing and slamming a large hurricane into the coast. Whether it was tropical or not damage was done. Sandy reminded me of Hurricane Hazel in 1954..If anyone has time to read about this monster that killed over a 1000 people from the Caribbean to Canada.. here is the link..Link
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Quoting DFWjc:
So this guy I work with has been going on an on about a lady who posted a youtube video about chemtrails and chembombs that made Hurricane Sandy go North as supposed to curving out to sea. I told him he's nuts but he linked me to it Link Could someone please explain what these are, I told him there's no was anyone can move a system as big as Sandy was. TIA


Just like in the movie Billy Madison, we are all dumber now from watching that video link. I would like to know what she is smoking however.
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It's that time of year again. sigh.

That time when the GFS trolls GA with long range snow forecasts that will never materialize, and consistently does so all winter.
If Georgian's believed the November to February GFS outputs, snow would always be 2 weeks away.....sigh.
All winter last year we were predicted to get snow withing 3 weeks and we never got a flake.
It will NEVER snow before Christmas.

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Quoting DFWjc:
So this guy I work with has been going on an on about a lady who posted a youtube video about chemtrails and chembombs that made Hurricane Sandy go North as supposed to curving out to sea. I told him he's nuts but he linked me to it Link Could someone please explain what these are, I told him there's no was anyone can move a system as big as Sandy was. TIA

It is tin foil hat conspiracy theory territory. Don't try to understand it, because it doesn't make any logical sense.
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GFS showing a small amount of snow with this in the NE, nothing noteworthy at this time, note the blocking high above it, but no low to pull it in so it goes out to sea quickly


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or a fish caster?
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Quoting islander101010:
there was plenty warning gave by nhc people bloomberg included just did not believe it would occur. seems like we have had a few storms of recent irene isacc and now sandy the have deep low pressure yet lacked the winds. might need to revamp how these storms are measured.
so bloomberg is a downcaster?
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Quoting Matthias1967:


Actually he should resign for misjudgement.

---

The problem with the NOAA was that they bent the rules. Tropical storm warnings are announced when tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours. Well, according to their own rules NHC should have put the whole coast from North Carolina up to Massachusetts under a tropcial storm warning on last Saturday when the storm definitely still was a hurricane. The same for hurrciane warnings. They didn't. Sandy still was full tropical when tropical storm winds reached the coast. When the radius of maximum winds reached the New Jersey and Long Island coasts Sandy was still classified full tropical. While they got predictions of intensity, track, storm surge, and other hazards pretty exactly their forecasting philosophy was big fail.

According to their pamphlet (the PDF mentioned earlier on this blog) they did this for not confusing the public when tropical storm warnings/hurricane warnings would've ceased after et transition but still nor'easter/blizzard conditions would've continued for a long time (which in the area proper btw did not happen because Sandy absorbed much of the other systems, blizzard conditions f.ex. happened only in parts of the Appalachians which anyways would't have been under hurricane/tropical storm warnings). Putting up graphics with a tropcial storm warning at the coast of North Carolina but lacking warnings for the coast north of that while Sandy was smacking down on the coast as a hurricane was a really bad, bad solution. People are looking on graphics, they're not reading advisories – some are not able to read or they don't understand terminology. Within this blog readers mostly understand the difference between hurricane winds and hurricane-force winds, the general public does not know about the difference, nor they understand the why.

Whoever was responsible for that bad judgement within NOAA should resign as well.


NHC did not bend their rules, it is up to the discretion of the Hurricane Specialist:

"If tropical storm force winds directly associated with a tropical cyclone are expected to affect an area for which a gale warning is already in place, a tropical storm warning may be issued, replacing the gale warning, at the discretion of the hurricane specialist after coordinating with the impacted WFO(s)."

1.1.3.3
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Do NorEasters make landfall days after the weather has arrived? What did people think was comming ashore, a double-spiral shaped gust front?

If you didn't post a hurricane warning on the gulf coast because it was extratropical, we would be confused by a strong wind advisory. Is the same true for an area that hasn't lived through a hurricane that has not been over land for several days?

90mph wind and life threatening/record breaking/subway flooding storm surge warnings sounds very comprehensible to me.

I saw maps showing areas that should expect storm surge. Were those not shown on local news stations?

P.S. I know that I and my family have been spoiled for years since we get info from here that is hot off the press 24/7 in the comments section. I don't know what other people see or don't see.
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Quoting StormPro:


Hey Washi...I haven't been on much ..busy at work. Glad to see you here
Hey stormpro I haven't been on much either because since Sandy has moved out of the pIcture the blog has gone down hill.I've also had to do some clean up around my house.
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I thought it was very strange the NHC would indicated a hurricane over NJ/Delaware/S. Pennsylvania and not have any hurricane/tropical storm warnings anywhere but Cape Hatteras and Bermuda.

I don't think there was any ulterior motives but I did think it was unusual and still do.
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First off, my heart goes out to the millions affected by this storm, and I love you, Governor Christie!

Quoting guygee:
Fact- the last vortex message still showed a deep warm core.

I am sure there will be another time to discuss this but I gotta go now.
The last vortex message I saw showed no temp difference inside and outside a N/A eye.

Skye,
I agree with you. I don't see how NWS could have put this any better. Perhaps local media did not pick up and disseminate. This was issued by Mt Holly, NJ office on Sunday at 2:?? pm EDT.

SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS FLOODING.

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

SOME IMPORTANT NOTES...

1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO.

2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO IT AGAIN.

3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE.

4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS ZERO FATALITIES.

5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE!

No doubt all this will be looked at. From the TV interviews I've seen, some of the public and perhaps private sector business and institutions just did not believe anything like this could happen. Kinda the same thing that studies of survivors in Joplin and Alabama 2011 tornadoes found. People just don't want to believe it can happen to them. Not knocking that point of view. It's very human and, in a way, optimistic. Because of this aspect, I don't think calling it a hurricane would have made any difference.

There will be those who (maybe already but I have not seen it) criticize the surge forecast forecast for NY and NJ even though it could not have been much better. Just boils down to people not wanting to believe it's gonna happen to them.
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Quoting Skyepony:


Fact~ It had completely been front smacked by landfall..it was certainly frontal in nature by that point (pointed that out with phase diagram at the time) or it wouldn't have been snowing. I would fully agree if the front hadn't been pulled it to it by that point. We have to consider the whole huge storm, not just the center.


Fact - The snow was a result of the cold air and would have occured whether or not this storm was tropical or not. Proves neither your nor his point.
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627. DFWjc
So this guy I work with has been going on an on about a lady who posted a youtube video about chemtrails and chembombs that made Hurricane Sandy go North as supposed to curving out to sea. I told him he's nuts but he linked me to it Link Could someone please explain what these are, I told him there's no was anyone can move a system as big as Sandy was. TIA
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The Barometer Bob Show for November 1, 2012.
This weeks show will be massive with a review of Hurricane/Superstorm/Frankenstorm Sandy. The guest will be Rick Schwartz, author of Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States.
We will discuss "Hurricane" Sandy and it's impact on the Mid Atlantic and New England. Could this storm have been better warned? Are we more responsible for the safety of lives then history or records? Listen Live and Please share your views in StormChat.

The Barometer Bob Show airs live every Thursday night at 8PM/ET.

With your host, Robert Brookens, the Barometer Bob Show has been a weekly weather related Internet program since May of 2001. It is the only weather related Internet broadcast that has been the recipient of a number of awards and recognition's.

There have been many notable guests (including Dr Masters), and topics over the years. So join us every Thursday night at 8PM/ET on the Weather Radio Broadcast Network.



Good night all.
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Quoting guygee:
I watched closely and posted graphics as Sandy passed over the Gulf Stream for the last time, with a deep warm core and convection strengthening directly over the center. That was fully tropical intensification near the center. The NHC should have never declared her extratropical so close to landfall in the first place, because she was obviously still some kind of hybrid storm. On top of that you are absolutely correct in your observation that there should have been TS and Hurricane watches and warnings all the way up the east coast as per the NHC's own policies.
I agree with you that the storm was tropical but they made their decision on how it would be handled long before. Their forecast was for it to transition long before landfall. What if they would have posted those watches and warnings and the storm did transition and follow their forecast? Would they then pull them down? Would that not give people a false sense of being in the clear? They explained their reasoning and made a decission and stuck with it. They also where all over the media explaining the probable impacts of the storm and the fact that that there will be surge and lots of it no matter how the storm will be classified. Seems like a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation.
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624. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting guygee:
Fact- the last vortex message still showed a deep warm core.

I am sure there will be another time to discuss this but I gotta go now.


Fact~ It had completely been front smacked by landfall..it was certainly frontal in nature by that point (pointed that out with phase diagram at the time) or it wouldn't have been snowing. I would fully agree if the front hadn't been pulled it to it by that point. We have to consider the whole huge storm, not just the center.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it was post tropical guygee it was a cane on approach transistion occur just prior to landfall and as landfall occur after landfall it was a deep nor'easter type event with heavy rain snow surge the surge came after inland crossing occur as the sea tried to follow the storm
Fact- the last vortex message still showed a deep warm core.

I am sure there will be another time to discuss this but I gotta go now.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3174
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I like it, too. At least at the others places I blog, there is usually two sides of the story, both sides bringing commentary in and then allowing users to decide for themselves upon what to believe. Not here. Here, one is ostracized for allowing anything to be introduced into the equation that doesn't suggest man is solely changing the climate. Oh well. Just an observation.
Science isn't a matter of opinion or belief. It's not like religion, where people can hear "both sides" and then make up their minds based on what they think works best for them. No, science is based on empirical research--and that research quite clearly demonstrates both that the climate is rapidly changing and that it's doing so primarily (if not mostly) because of our burning of fossil fuels. No one is "ostracized" here for implying otherwise, but they are repeatedly challenged to provide scientific evidence to support the things they say, and they are often ridiculed for repeatedly failing to provide it.

There may be "two sides" to the climate change issue--but, scientifically-speaking, only one of those sides is correct. The other side is just talking nonsense.

(NOTE: I am not saying there are no honest skeptics--but those honest skeptics only disagree about the amount of warming, not whether it's happening.)
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Snndy's death toll is almost 100.So far it stands at 70 and let's hope that doesn't go up.In total Sandy has already killed 130 people.


Hey Washi...I haven't been on much ..busy at work. Glad to see you here
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Quoting Skyepony:
I still back the NHC decision. No hurricane Warning was needed because Hurricanes don't contain snow & snow was falling at landfall in parts of the W & SW of the storm. We've seen winter storms get over the gulf stream & briefly go warm core but while they are producing snow on the farther reaches they are still a winter storm...we don't suddenly call them a hurricane.

The fact it was snowing at landfall should rightly save alot of people from paying hurricane deductibles.

Anyone making a claim should review their policy & note all expenses. I've been reimbursed for things as petty as food spoilage & a computer power supply.
I don't think that is in the definition of "hurricane", Skye: "A hurricane must not cause snow". I have never heard of that one. A quick google brings up things like Snow Hurricane of 1804. Sure, a late season hurricane coming up the east coast can cause snow on its fringes and still be a tropical system out at sea.

But you are right at least people up north won't be paying those hurricane deductibles. Good for them. I am out.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3174
Quoting guygee:
I guess if the NHC pronounces a storm 'extra-tropical', then it is de facto extra-tropical regardless of the scientific data. End of story.
I am done.
it was post tropical guygee it was a cane on approach transistion occur just prior to landfall and as landfall occur after landfall it was a deep nor'easter type event with heavy rain snow surge the surge came after inland crossing occur as the sea tried to follow the storm inland
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Quoting Skyepony:
I still back the NHC decision. No hurricane Warning was needed because Hurricanes don't contain snow & snow was falling at landfall in parts of the W & SW of the storm. We've seen winter storms get over the gulf stream & briefly go warm core but while they are producing snow on the farther reaches they are still a winter storm...we don't suddenly call them a hurricane.

The fact it was snowing at landfall should rightly save alot of people from paying hurricane deductibles.

Anyone making a claim should review their policy & note all expenses. I've been reimbursed for things as petty as food spoilage & a computer power supply.


So the Great White Hurricane was really what?

Lots of hurricanes have snow.


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Oil spill off storm-battered New York: Shell
AFP
November 02, 2012 12:28AM

US oil company Shell has confirmed superstorm Sandy triggered an oil spill in the waters off New York City, without specifying an amount, saying clean up efforts were underway.

A news report said 300,00 gallons of diesel fuel spilled.

"At least two diesel storage tanks were damaged and an unknown quantity of product was released," the company said in a statement.

The storage tanks were at a Sewaren, New Jersey refinery part-owned by Shell and run by Motiva.

"No injuries have occurred and there has been no further product released since the initial event."

"Previously deployed booms are continuing to skim released product in the Woodbridge creek adjacent to the site. Motiva and public emergency responders are onsite assessing the situation."

CNN reported that some 300,000 gallons of diesel fuel had spilled, saying the US Coast Guard was overseeing the cleanup effort.

The Coast Guard was not immediately available for comment.

The massive storm carved a path of devastation across the US northeast on Monday and Tuesday, flooding lower Manhattan and much of the New Jersey coastline and leaving millions without electricity across several states.
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No hurricane warning was needed because it wasn't expected to be a hurricane at landfall. This was accurate. However, hurricane force winds were experienced by many people before it made landfall and while it was tropical.

It matters little though, because the message was communicated the same, and the media helped hype it up. One of the rare times an event almost lives up to media hype.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24488

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.