Why did Hurricane Sandy take such an unusual track into New Jersey?
We're used to seeing hurricane-battered beaches and flooded cities in Florida, North Carolina, and the Gulf Coast. But to see these images from the Jersey Shore and New York City in the wake of Hurricane Sandy is a shocking experience. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in a portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much, and is too far north. How did this happen? How was a hurricane able to move from southeast to northwest at landfall, so far north, and so late in hurricane season? We expect hurricanes to move from east to west in the tropics, where the prevailing trade winds blow that direction. But the prevailing wind direction reverses at mid-latitudes, flowing predominately west-to-east, due to the spin of the Earth. Hurricanes that penetrate to about Florida's latitude usually get caught up in these westerly winds, and are whisked northeastwards, out to sea. However, the jet stream, that powerful band of upper-atmosphere west-to-east flowing air, has many dips and bulges. These troughs of low pressure and ridges of high pressure allow winds at mid-latitudes to flow more to the north or to the south. Every so often, a trough in the jet stream bends back on itself when encountering a ridge of high pressure stuck in place ahead of it. These "negatively tilted" troughs have winds that flow from southeast to northwest. It is this sort of negatively tilted trough that sucked in Sandy and allowed the hurricane to take such an unusual path into New Jersey.
Figure 1. Inlet section of Atlantic City, N.J., after Hurricane Sandy. Image credit: 6 ABC Action News.
The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 besides Sandy was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. However, the Vagabond Hurricane hit in September, when the jet stream is typically weaker and farther to the north. It is quite extraordinary that Sandy was able to hit New Jersey in late October, when the jet stream is typically stronger and farther south, making recurvature to the northeast much more likely than in September.
Figure 2. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.
The blocking ridge that steered Sandy into New Jersey
A strong ridge of high pressure parked itself over Greenland beginning on October 20, creating a "blocking ridge" that prevented the normal west-to-east flow of winds over Eastern North America. Think of the blocking ridge like a big truck parked over Greenland. Storms approaching from the west (like the fall low pressure system that moved across the U.S. from California to Pennsylvania last week) or from the south (Hurricane Sandy) were blocked from heading to the northeast. Caught in the equivalent of an atmospheric traffic jam, the two storms collided over the Northeast U.S., combined into one, and are now waiting for the truck parked over Greenland to move. The strength of the blocking ridge, as measured by the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), was quite high--about two standard deviations from average, something that occurs approximately 5% of the time. When the NAO is in a strong negative phase, we tend to have blocking ridges over Greenland.
Figure 3. Jet stream winds at a pressure of 300 mb on October 29, 2012, as Hurricane Sandy approached the coast of New Jersey. Note that the wind direction over New Jersey (black arrows) was from the southeast, due to a negatively tilted trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. caused by a strong blocking ridge of high pressure over Greenland. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
Arctic sea ice loss can cause blocking ridges
Blocking ridges occur naturally, but are uncommon over Greenland this time of year. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, blocking near the longitude of Greenland (50°W) only occurs about 2% of the time in the fall. These odds rise to about 6% in winter and spring. As I discussed in an April post, Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns, three studies published in the past year have found that the jet stream has been getting stuck in unusually strong blocking patterns in recent years. These studies found that the recent record decline in Arctic sea ice could be responsible, since this heats up the pole, altering the Equator-to-pole temperature difference, forcing the jet stream to slow down, meander, and get stuck in large loops. The 2012 Arctic sea ice melt season was extreme, with sea ice extent hitting a record lows. Could sea ice loss have contributed to the blocking ridge that steered Sandy into New Jersey? It is possible, but we will need to much more research on the subject before we make such a link, as the studies of sea ice loss on jet stream patterns are so new. The author of one of the new studies, Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers, had this say in a recent post by Andy Revkin in his Dot Earth blog: "While it’s impossible to say how this scenario might have unfolded if sea-ice had been as extensive as it was in the 1980s, the situation at hand is completely consistent with what I’d expect to see happen more often as a result of unabated warming and especially the amplification of that warming in the Arctic."
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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GREAT TO HEAR FROM YOU!
Hang in there...
If the GFS start to get consistency, then it could very well happen. The season is not over yet.
Besides people's lush over-watered lawns, a lot of trees along rivers, streams and ponds come down for the same reason.
So is Wall Street .
There other specialized root systems, such as mangrove, Australian pine (it is actually an oak/hickory) and cypress that have shallow roots because they evolved where there is no oxygen below the surface.
Mayor to mandate car passenger minimums in Manhattan
By JENNIFER FERMINO and SALLY GOLDENBERG
Last Updated: 5:57 PM, October 31, 2012
Posted: 2:09 PM, October 31, 2012
Cars with less than three passengers will be virtually barred from entering Manhattan, Mayor Bloomberg announced today, in a desperate bid to relief gridlocked city streets.
This post-Hurricane Sandy rule will be enforced from 6 a.m. to midnight tomorrow and Friday.
"To reduce the number of cars coming into Manhattan, however, we have to take some steps. The streets just cannot handle the number of cars that have tried to come in," the mayor said today.
"I know it is inconvenient for a lot of people. But the bottom line is the streets can only handle so much."
The restrictions will be enforced on all Manhattan -bound bridges and tunnels --
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER NILAM (BOB02-2012)
23:30 PM IST October 31 2012
=============================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, the cyclonic storm moved northwestward and weakened into a deep depression. Deep Depression, Former Nilam now lays over northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining areas of Rayalaseema and interior Karnataka or near 13.5N 78.5E. The system is likely to move west northwestward and weaken further into a depression during the next 12 hours
MANTOLOKING, N.J. (AP) — New Jersey's delicate barrier islands, long and slender strips of land cherished by generations of sunbathing vacationers and full-time residents alike, are a hazardous wasteland of badly eroded shore, ruined beachfront homes, flooded streets and damaged utilities.
The full extent of the devastation on the island that hosts MTV's "Jersey Shore" came into sharper focus Wednesday, and it wasn't a pretty sight. Signs of the good life that had defined wealthy enclaves like Bayhead and Mantoloking lie scattered and broken: $3,000 barbecue grills buried beneath the sand and hot tubs cracked and filled with seawater.
Nearly all the homes were seriously damaged, and many were destroyed — no trace of them left.
"This," said Harry Typaldos, who owns the Grenville Inn in Mantoloking, "I just can't comprehend."
Would probably be similar to Ida or Paloma. We'll see what happens, as much as the horrors that have unfolded in the North-east after Hurricane Sandy continues to dawn on us, the season continues..
I guess Harry never pays attention when a strong hurricane makes landfall in the southern US or elsewhere in the world for that matter.
Finally got to give you a like! 8-)
Crews will "have to construct another crane on top of it in order to take down this one," the mayor told reporters.
"There was enormous torque when the crane fell over and the fact that those connectors have withstood the pressure just testifies to how well they were put in and how stable that tower is," Bloomberg said.
It would be nice if Euro starts to show it to get a better consensus.
and here we go..its seems valerie and william dont want to miss a thing...
This is beyond the ECMWF's time.
Robert Romiti, a graphic designer, told NBC News he had walked from South Street in Lower Manhattan in search of electricity to charge his iPhone. He finally found an improvised charging station at the corner of 36th Street and Fifth Avenue, about three miles from his apartment, where a condominium tower had put out several surge protectors for passers-by. About 20 people were huddled around it. Romiti said a similar improvised power station six blocks south was fully occupied.
At the main branch of the Montclair Public Library, where a line formed before its 10 a.m. opening, several hundred people were using every available outlet to charge computers and cellphones, with some sprawled on floors near electrical plugs. Library staffers opened an auditorium, additional conference rooms and arranged for a branch building to open Wednesday to accommodate townspeople without electricity.
“We’re trying our best to serve the public the best we can,” said library supervisor Dawn Quinn.
NBCNews.com
Anyone is NJ - Call for assistance: I've had no power since Mon night. We've been using a generator for my respirator and the boiler. Will run out of fuel tomorrow and there doesn't seem to be any in the area. My brother has tried many gas stations today!
If anyone in N or Central Jersey can get cans of gas please do so! I live in Maplewood, but someone in my family could pick it up from you if necessary. I don't have Internet or phone access but can sometimes receive text messages at 973-763-7059. You can also email my aunt, who can try to reach me, at ehnissen@gmail.com. Please repost.
And as cool as it's been to see this list long smash its ridiculous curse, enough is enough. :/
Just for you then, we will have a few more storms in the Atlantic and EPAC... Seriously though, I do think we will have at least 1 more storm.
agreed i hope so also.
s that a joke? I would be helping out with relief efforts for my city and, when I wanted to do something for myself, run amok. Strangely, I still remember how to live without electricity. Unless those people are all there because it's absolutely necessary for work, then it's kind of sad, and not in an actually sad way.
That being said, reading of the extensive damage in places really sells the terrifying scope of how much damage can be wrought by hurricanes. People and communities these days tend to think they are invulnerable, and it often leads to rude wake-up calls when mother Nature comes to break down your door.
No one is invulnerable. That's why it's called hurricane season, guys.
The U.S. Department of Energy said about 26% of the Northeast's fuel-making capacity, nearly all in the area affected by Sandy, remained off line. Two refineries, Phillips 66's PSX -0.72% Linden, N.J. refinery, and Hess Corp.'s HES -1.84% facility in Port Reading, N.J., which together produce about 308,000 barrels a day, were completely shut down. Facilities with a processing capacity of 862,200 barrels a day, or about 74% of the region's total, were operating at reduced rates, according to the department.
Kyle Cooper, a managing partner at Houston's IAF Energy Advisors, said once power is restored, refineries could be running within a day or two, barring unforeseen problems.
Even so, given the size of the storm and the extent of flooding, Mr. Cooper said issues could surface that might delay the starting and repair process. "The littlest bit of saltwater in the wrong place, when you flip the switch you'll have a short," he said.
via WSJ.com
“They are the largest centrifugal pumps there are in the country,” branch manager Mike Zudycki said. “They are usually used for industrial applications.”
Zudycki said he believes these units are destined specifically for flooded transportation hubs. His store has helped the corps with several emergency disaster relief efforts, most recently last year with the Missouri River flooding of Omaha, Neb.
The company already had some pumps available in the New York City area, Zudycki said, and it transported other units from various other branches.
That the pumps are diesel is essential, with electricity out in much of the areas hardest hit.
via heraldnewssuntimes.com
As always you are a wealth of information. I always enjoy reading your posts regarding the vegation and habitat of Florida.
This really is amazing and tells alot about how we live our lives. Makes you wonder what would happen if someone was able to hack into the grid.
The Coast Guard Captain of the Port has authorized the Port of Long Island Sound to resume operations as of 4 p.m., yesterday.
The COTP is working closely with the port industry, NOAA, Army Corps of Engineers, and Connecticut and New York state agencies to minimize risk as the port returns to normalcy.
via maritime-executive.com
After Ike, diesel started running in short supply in Houston after day 6. More and more fuel was going to FEMA to support their efforts and less to the local distributors. I hope all of these folks do not run into the same issue.
I think this incident will put a huge strain on the economy and puts us one step further to a depression. The world economy is in a very fragil state and all eyes are on us right now and how we are doing. There is alot of fear out there about the world economy and this just creates even more.
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