Why did Hurricane Sandy take such an unusual track into New Jersey?
We're used to seeing hurricane-battered beaches and flooded cities in Florida, North Carolina, and the Gulf Coast. But to see these images from the Jersey Shore and New York City in the wake of Hurricane Sandy is a shocking experience. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in a portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much, and is too far north. How did this happen? How was a hurricane able to move from southeast to northwest at landfall, so far north, and so late in hurricane season? We expect hurricanes to move from east to west in the tropics, where the prevailing trade winds blow that direction. But the prevailing wind direction reverses at mid-latitudes, flowing predominately west-to-east, due to the spin of the Earth. Hurricanes that penetrate to about Florida's latitude usually get caught up in these westerly winds, and are whisked northeastwards, out to sea. However, the jet stream, that powerful band of upper-atmosphere west-to-east flowing air, has many dips and bulges. These troughs of low pressure and ridges of high pressure allow winds at mid-latitudes to flow more to the north or to the south. Every so often, a trough in the jet stream bends back on itself when encountering a ridge of high pressure stuck in place ahead of it. These "negatively tilted" troughs have winds that flow from southeast to northwest. It is this sort of negatively tilted trough that sucked in Sandy and allowed the hurricane to take such an unusual path into New Jersey.
Figure 1. Inlet section of Atlantic City, N.J., after Hurricane Sandy. Image credit: 6 ABC Action News.
The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 besides Sandy was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. However, the Vagabond Hurricane hit in September, when the jet stream is typically weaker and farther to the north. It is quite extraordinary that Sandy was able to hit New Jersey in late October, when the jet stream is typically stronger and farther south, making recurvature to the northeast much more likely than in September.
Figure 2. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.
The blocking ridge that steered Sandy into New Jersey
A strong ridge of high pressure parked itself over Greenland beginning on October 20, creating a "blocking ridge" that prevented the normal west-to-east flow of winds over Eastern North America. Think of the blocking ridge like a big truck parked over Greenland. Storms approaching from the west (like the fall low pressure system that moved across the U.S. from California to Pennsylvania last week) or from the south (Hurricane Sandy) were blocked from heading to the northeast. Caught in the equivalent of an atmospheric traffic jam, the two storms collided over the Northeast U.S., combined into one, and are now waiting for the truck parked over Greenland to move. The strength of the blocking ridge, as measured by the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), was quite high--about two standard deviations from average, something that occurs approximately 5% of the time. When the NAO is in a strong negative phase, we tend to have blocking ridges over Greenland.
Figure 3. Jet stream winds at a pressure of 300 mb on October 29, 2012, as Hurricane Sandy approached the coast of New Jersey. Note that the wind direction over New Jersey (black arrows) was from the southeast, due to a negatively tilted trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. caused by a strong blocking ridge of high pressure over Greenland. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
Arctic sea ice loss can cause blocking ridges
Blocking ridges occur naturally, but are uncommon over Greenland this time of year. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, blocking near the longitude of Greenland (50°W) only occurs about 2% of the time in the fall. These odds rise to about 6% in winter and spring. As I discussed in an April post, Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns, three studies published in the past year have found that the jet stream has been getting stuck in unusually strong blocking patterns in recent years. These studies found that the recent record decline in Arctic sea ice could be responsible, since this heats up the pole, altering the Equator-to-pole temperature difference, forcing the jet stream to slow down, meander, and get stuck in large loops. The 2012 Arctic sea ice melt season was extreme, with sea ice extent hitting a record lows. Could sea ice loss have contributed to the blocking ridge that steered Sandy into New Jersey? It is possible, but we will need to much more research on the subject before we make such a link, as the studies of sea ice loss on jet stream patterns are so new. The author of one of the new studies, Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers, had this say in a recent post by Andy Revkin in his Dot Earth blog: "While it’s impossible to say how this scenario might have unfolded if sea-ice had been as extensive as it was in the 1980s, the situation at hand is completely consistent with what I’d expect to see happen more often as a result of unabated warming and especially the amplification of that warming in the Arctic."
Jeff Masters
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Southeast Texans heading to East Coast to help
BEAUMONT- By: Kalie Desimone/ KFDM News
50 billion dollars. that's how much some analysts say the superstorm will cost in property damage and lost business. Millions remain without power. Southeast Texans are coming to the rescue to help with the economic recovery and the restoration of power. Entergy trucks loaded with equipment, heading to the East Coast. "Probably a lot of flood waters, down power lines. That's the main reason we are going and trees damage. That's probably the main concern" says Frank Galassi.
Entergy is sending 22 men to Mays Landing New Jersey. An area hit hard by Sandy. "It's supposed to be the biggest storm they've ever had. There is a lot of people still there that did not evacuate which is a big concern as far as us getting around" says Galassi. 40 men with the power company left for the East Coast Saturday morning. The crews are part of a massive restoration effort. But the Entergy team isn't the only crew traveling to New Jersey and New York.
"We are establishing a list so that we can say people in Beaumont, Port Arthur and Orange area want to work" says Jewel Black. Jewel Black is recruiting workers at the Theodore Johns library in Beaumont. "When a natural disaster happens we want to go. We want to help FEMA" says Black. Help that requires a specific skill set. Hazmat clean up and running heavy machinery. "We need operators, we need labors" says Black.
And they need a lot of help. Hundreds of people. "Last night they said we need between 200 to 500 people" says Black. A job people with a special set of skills want and need in Southeast TTexas. Help with the clean up. What people on the east coast desperately need.
If you're interested in signing up with the Vision Builders Staffing Agency to help with natural disasters, you can come to a recruitment event this Saturday from 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. at the L.L. Melton building. You must have a state issued ID card, cell phone and email address. In addition you'll need a 40 hour OSHA EPA hazardous material training certificate and valid passport. There is some other paperwork you'll need as well.
For more information call 1-866-503-3589.
+1 for Sandy...though it's really a negative...JUST SAYIN!!!
I think the NHC is just throwing in the towel after Sandy, but this thing is in a prime environment... just ask Sandy. And recent years have seen at least one storm develop in or even after November, with some seeing storms cross over into November but not form that month... it's become more common place. If we consider all of the above, than 8 of the last 10 years have seen named storms at least at some point after Nov 1.
November is still prime hurricane season...EVERYWHERE!!...I don't get your point!?
Henry
A couple showers with lightening and some stiff breezes in squalls came through earlier.
About time !
Send more !!
I don't get yours either, I never said it wasn't part of the hurricane season, but it's not known to be very active. The Jet Stream is usually too low and cooler SSTs generally pervade. I'm merely pointing out the fact that, as Largo said, the season's not over and that activity in November has been trending upwards lately.
wishcaster
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST PUBLIC
ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF SANDY...LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Not sure why they don't tally the last two columns, so I did; the "Peak Outages Reported in DOE SitReps" column adds up to 8,428,078 customers without power at peak, and 2,178,681 customers for whom power has been restored.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SHELTER IN PLACE WARNING
KENTUCKY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
214 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
KENTUCKY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AND METROSAFE IN LOUISVILLE
KENTUCKY.
LOUISVILLE METROSAFE ASKS THAT PEOPLE LIVING WITHIN A FIVE MILE
RADIUS OF DIXIE HIGHWAY AND KATHERINE STATION ROAD SHELTER IN
PLACE UNTIL THE ALL CLEAR IS GIVEN. AN EXPLOSION OCCURRED EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TRAIN DERAILMENT SITE. TO SHELTER IN
PLACE...CLOSE ALL DOORS AND WINDOWS AND TURN OFF ANY SYSTEM THAT
PULLS IN OUTSIDE AIR. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
Read more: http://www.voxxi.com/storm-damage-hurricane-sandy- clean-up/#ixzz2AuFBwhUL
Here is information about %u201Cshelter in place%u201D
From the National Weather Service: A warning of an event where the public is recommended to shelter in place (go inside, close doors and windows, turn off air conditioning or heating systems, and turn on the radio or TV for more information). Examples include the release of hazardous materials where toxic fumes or radioactivity may affect designated areas.
Sheltering in place can provide some protection against all airborne contaminants, because proper sheltering reduces contact with the contaminated air.
Story: http://www.kltv.com/story/19965147/5-workers-injur ed-in-accident-and-fire-at-train-derailment-site
Sounds like an accident during the cleanup phase.
There is a mandatory evac 1.2 miles around the explosion site beside the warning you posted ..
Climate-Change Denying Senator James Inhofe Wins 2012 Rubber Dodo Award
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.ht ml
Not for all crops. It's been shown that for some crops the net increase in productivity is so high that it can pay for itself in a reasonable amount of time.
Further, eventually as world population continues to swell, priorities will need to be straightened. More food will be needed, regardless of other aspects of economics, and this will mean higher food price, and people will just have to do with less of the luxuries we've had.
We will need enough food to feed another 2 billion people within 2 or 3 decades, and most of that food will come from the Western Hemisphere.
At some point, real economics will outweigh the fake economics we have all lived under for decades, and food prices, and perhaps clothing prices, will become the primary driver of economy.
A recent study has concluded that Bananas will probably become the staple food for everyone........ (BBC news)
I quite enjoy a banana, but as a staple diet I think it lacks a little something. Even with ketchup and mustard.
------
I am not saying this statement below is correct... but at least you should support your position with an honest and accurate quote as seen below:
-------------
Statement on Hurricane Sandy and Climate Silence
Brad Johnson, campaign manager of Forecast the Facts and ClimateSilence.org:
"If the candidates won't listen to the voters demanding they break their climate silence, maybe they will listen to Mother Nature's October Surprise. We know the candidates will be asked about Hurricane Sandy, and will express their sympathy with those affected. They will rightly applaud the first responders, the compassion of neighbors, and the strength and resolve of the American people. But what they should also do, what their role as national leaders demands that they do, is explain why this is happening.
"Hurricane Sandy is a true Frankenstorm, a monster created by man tampering with nature. It is a scientific fact that oil, coal, and gas pollution are fueling freakish climate disasters. Barack Obama and Mitt Romney need to be honest with voters: we have to stop poisoning our weather and start saving our future."
http://forecastthefacts.org/press/releases/2012/1 0/26/statement-hurricane-sandy-and-climate-silence /
Unless that makes city cleanup crews have to clean that up too.
A GOLD MINE !!!!
heheheheh
In my work we've had chemical hazard disaster training and this kind of accident/incident it is important to get the word out for people to stay indoors, turn off air venting systems, and protect yourself from airborne chemicals which can be deadly. Glad to see warnings out for this. Had an incident at a company where I worked where chlorine gas line ruptured and children at a nearby school were harmed and ended up in serious condition in the hospital. If the hazard is near, we were told to use masks, duct tape edges of doors and windows, and seal ourselves inside till the all clear hits.
So, any word on what the problem is there ?
Workers were trying to clear a derailed tanker car full of Butadiene and it ignited and exploded.
Link
It couldn't go to a better dodo. Unless you want to send one to each of the people who sent him back to Washington.
iam watchin WPB there are no threats at this time
i would say so if there was
In answer to your question, possibly because the peak occurred at different times in different states. It appears that MI is still on its way to a peak as there are now 51K more people there w/o power than there were at "the peak". Just guessing though.
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