Why did Hurricane Sandy take such an unusual track into New Jersey?
We're used to seeing hurricane-battered beaches and flooded cities in Florida, North Carolina, and the Gulf Coast. But to see these images from the Jersey Shore and New York City in the wake of Hurricane Sandy is a shocking experience. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in a portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much, and is too far north. How did this happen? How was a hurricane able to move from southeast to northwest at landfall, so far north, and so late in hurricane season? We expect hurricanes to move from east to west in the tropics, where the prevailing trade winds blow that direction. But the prevailing wind direction reverses at mid-latitudes, flowing predominately west-to-east, due to the spin of the Earth. Hurricanes that penetrate to about Florida's latitude usually get caught up in these westerly winds, and are whisked northeastwards, out to sea. However, the jet stream, that powerful band of upper-atmosphere west-to-east flowing air, has many dips and bulges. These troughs of low pressure and ridges of high pressure allow winds at mid-latitudes to flow more to the north or to the south. Every so often, a trough in the jet stream bends back on itself when encountering a ridge of high pressure stuck in place ahead of it. These "negatively tilted" troughs have winds that flow from southeast to northwest. It is this sort of negatively tilted trough that sucked in Sandy and allowed the hurricane to take such an unusual path into New Jersey.
Figure 1. Inlet section of Atlantic City, N.J., after Hurricane Sandy. Image credit: 6 ABC Action News.
The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 besides Sandy was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. However, the Vagabond Hurricane hit in September, when the jet stream is typically weaker and farther to the north. It is quite extraordinary that Sandy was able to hit New Jersey in late October, when the jet stream is typically stronger and farther south, making recurvature to the northeast much more likely than in September.
Figure 2. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.
The blocking ridge that steered Sandy into New Jersey
A strong ridge of high pressure parked itself over Greenland beginning on October 20, creating a "blocking ridge" that prevented the normal west-to-east flow of winds over Eastern North America. Think of the blocking ridge like a big truck parked over Greenland. Storms approaching from the west (like the fall low pressure system that moved across the U.S. from California to Pennsylvania last week) or from the south (Hurricane Sandy) were blocked from heading to the northeast. Caught in the equivalent of an atmospheric traffic jam, the two storms collided over the Northeast U.S., combined into one, and are now waiting for the truck parked over Greenland to move. The strength of the blocking ridge, as measured by the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), was quite high--about two standard deviations from average, something that occurs approximately 5% of the time. When the NAO is in a strong negative phase, we tend to have blocking ridges over Greenland.
Figure 3. Jet stream winds at a pressure of 300 mb on October 29, 2012, as Hurricane Sandy approached the coast of New Jersey. Note that the wind direction over New Jersey (black arrows) was from the southeast, due to a negatively tilted trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. caused by a strong blocking ridge of high pressure over Greenland. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
Arctic sea ice loss can cause blocking ridges
Blocking ridges occur naturally, but are uncommon over Greenland this time of year. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, blocking near the longitude of Greenland (50°W) only occurs about 2% of the time in the fall. These odds rise to about 6% in winter and spring. As I discussed in an April post, Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns, three studies published in the past year have found that the jet stream has been getting stuck in unusually strong blocking patterns in recent years. These studies found that the recent record decline in Arctic sea ice could be responsible, since this heats up the pole, altering the Equator-to-pole temperature difference, forcing the jet stream to slow down, meander, and get stuck in large loops. The 2012 Arctic sea ice melt season was extreme, with sea ice extent hitting a record lows. Could sea ice loss have contributed to the blocking ridge that steered Sandy into New Jersey? It is possible, but we will need to much more research on the subject before we make such a link, as the studies of sea ice loss on jet stream patterns are so new. The author of one of the new studies, Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers, had this say in a recent post by Andy Revkin in his Dot Earth blog: "While it’s impossible to say how this scenario might have unfolded if sea-ice had been as extensive as it was in the 1980s, the situation at hand is completely consistent with what I’d expect to see happen more often as a result of unabated warming and especially the amplification of that warming in the Arctic."
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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5:55 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Jeff Masters
My prep paid off during Snowmageddon, this summer's derecho, Irene, and now Sandy.
Fortunately, our house is on high ground, so we're resistant to freshwater flooding and well above the current surge zone. However, if global warming accelerates to an extreme pace and there is dramatic melting of terrestrial ice and a sea-level rise of more than 5 meters (I don't think it will in my lifetime, but the way things are going you never know) we could have oceanfront property!
I'd rather not take that chance, however, so we've mostly converted our day-to-day transport to person powered (bikes). We still have a car for long trips and hauling big items, but bike commuting is the easiest way I know to make a big difference in CO2 emissions. And I follow blogs like Dr. Masters to keep up with the science best I can, despite the distractions from commenters who either can't comprehend or do not care to deal with the climate changes taking place and their causes.
I can understand the fear here. When we endured the 2004 and 2005 seasons there was real fear that we were going to have recurring issues with hurricanes year after year. And the funny thing was, that didn't happen. It has been 7 years now with only near misses.
I am in full agreement that climate change is at work here but the reality seams to be that these events are chance happenings and you could have had a near miss in New Jersey just the same. The best course is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. And don't add undue risk.
In eastern Illinois we had consistent winds yesterday at an easy 20-30 knots from north to south. Made driving really annoying on east/west roads. Even today we are still getting good winds from the Northwest.
Alberto...60 mph...no change
Beryl....70 mph...could be 75 mph (low chance)
Chris... up to 80 mph...and lasted longer as a hurricane than what it actually did
Debby...60 mph...no change
Ernesto...up to 100-110 mph..intensified quickly right before landfall (eye developed)
Florence ...60 mph...the final TCR was already given.
Gordon...up to 115-120 mph...intensifies further for a longer time. The first major storm
Helene...probably became a storm as it was by the Lesser Antilles...no change in GOM.
Isaac...up to 85 mph..or no change.
Joyce...45 mph...no change
Kirk...105 mph...no change
Leslie...up to 80 mph...
Michael...up to 120-125...Idk why it stopped intensifying after reaching 115 mph...
Nadine...no comment about this one...
Oscar...50 mph...no change
Patty...45 mph..no change
Rafael...possibly to 100 mph...but may not be possible tough.
SANDY...115-120 MPH MAJOR DEVASTATING STORM...became major before hitting Cuba
Tony...50 mph...no change
that's how I see it guys...comments?
Will colder northern temperatures help keep mold growth down?
Seriously, this is a hurricane related question.
Well here in Decatur we are getting Northwest winds..
And so is Peoria currently...
Yesterday was extemely breezy in my area out of the north, I think there may have been an extreme gradient. The entire state of Indiana was under a wind advisory yesterday. So just being two counties away...
I was told by the police to evacuate after they came to know on my door.
I left CT and now I'm MA. I watched the news yesterday and they said all that area has many trees down and it would take weeks to get the power back. I really hope nothing happened to my house. I can't go back because the roads are blocked around there
I made that type of comment many blogs ago, and your thinking is about the same as mine.
Why no comment on Nadine? Haha.
Having gone through Ike in 2008, i can tell you that neither I, my family or any of our neighbors or anyone I met gave two craps about the WHY of Isaac's strengths, size or reason for it's path. We care about cleaning up, staying alive, talking to insurance adjusters.
So maybe in about 6-12 months the people being affected by Sandy will care about Sea Ice, but right now. No.
You mean Ike in 2008 or Isaac 2012.
Black Mold will still develop with salt water - it isn't terribly sensitive to salt. As for temps - it may actually increase it... outside, there will be much less black mold growth. But inside, it will go crazy, due to ideal growing conditions 24/7 (since doors and windows stay closed when it is cold outside).
This sort of imagery is just more evidence that serious consideration needs to be given by governments and businesses, top to bottom, about how zoning laws and insurance companies are managed.
This is only the beginning. The real affects of AGW don't start to kick in until at least the first complete summer Arctic Sea Ice meltdown happens.
This agrees somewhat with my intuitive belief that the effects will be bigger storm in more locations more often, but not only that, "retrograde" storm tracks compared to climatology norms should become more common. We had many storms this year which broke some sort of climatology norm: direction of track, intensity at lattitude, absurd storm surges compared to SS wind intensity due to "very large, very low pressure category 1 storms".
I'm thinking this could become literally "normal" for a strong TS or large category 1 storm to hit the Jersey shore region as AGW goes forward, because of the persistent hot pockets in SST just off shore, combined with the blocking patterns.
Another interesting thing about both Sandy and Irene is they were "slow movers" compared to climatological norms for the effected regions. Historically storms are moving 25, 30, even 40 mph as they pass New England. Both Sandy and Irene just clunked along at 10 to 15mph for most of their track, which can lead to much higher wave setups, much higher precipitation, and more more prolonged winds.
I am also interested in why the consensus landfall intensity forecast was so poor for Sandy. At 2.5 to 3 days, Sandy had been forecast to landfall as a 60mph storm. Based on Kinetic Energy, a 90mph storm is 225% as energetic as a 60mph storm of the same size. So the error in terms of kinetic energy was about 125% of the forecast value!
The models, when adjusted for initialization errors, generally did very well on other storms, including Isaac.
Why was it so bad for Sandy? The hot pocket in the SST (compared to average,) was there, but other storms passed hot pockets this year and did not intensify so rapidly, or even at all. I figure the cold upper air in October has something to do with this, since Wilma did something similar.
Perhaps October storms don't follow the same rules as August and September storms. There seems to be a lot more uncertainty in every aspect of intensity and track.
Carl Parker on TWC stated that there may be several scientific papers written about the various events involving this storm, because it is so unique.
>>>>>>EPIC DEVASTATION!!!<<<<<<<<
lol...relax
And remember, nobody ever said that Sandy was directly caused by man - except maybe this guy:
"...FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: October 26, 2012
CONTACT: Blair FitzGibbon : 202-503-6141 : blair@fitzgibbonmedia.com
Statement by Brad Johnson, campaign manager of Forecast the Facts and ClimateSilence.org:
“If the candidates won’t listen to the voters demanding they break their climate silence, maybe they will listen to Mother Nature’s October Surprise. We know the candidates will be asked about Hurricane Sandy, and will express their sympathy with those affected. They will rightly applaud the first responders, the compassion of neighbors, and the strength and resolve of the American people. But what their role as national leaders demands that they also do is explain that Hurricane Sandy is a true Frankenstorm, a monster created by man tampering with nature with oil, coal, and gas pollution..."
I once posted here something here about Hurricane Gustav but I unintentionally put data about Wilma instead...I don't know why I did that... t's alright
See 15 hours of Sandy approach and landfall at my blog entry. Provides alternate insight of her unusual track.
Start growing crops in barn-sized greenhouses with controled conditions, problem solved.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pliocene_climate
If we don't get our act together the outcome could be MUCH more ugly. Think ocean anoxic event.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anoxic_event
Either way, as the decades roll on more and more of the coast is going to become uninhabitable.
Hurricane Sandy:
DTE Energy prepares to send workers to help restore power on East Coast
By BEN FREED Business Reporter 9 Comments
Posted on Mon, Oct 29, 2012 : 5:51 p.m.
DTE Energy has released 100 contract linemen to potentially be sent to the East Coast to help regional energy carriers regain power in the aftermath of hurricane Sandy this week, a company spokesman said.
The move comes as Sandy is moving toward land and could impact Southeast Michigan as well. A National Weather Service issued a wind advisory Monday that warning area residents that gusts could reach up to 50 mph Monday afternoon, strong enough to cause power outages.
DTE spokesman Alejandro Bodipo-Memba said the company’s first responsibility is to consumers here in Michigan, and that the company is still attempting to forecast the local need for linemen against the needs in East Coast states....
Yep. Mold is a bigger problem in a lot of cold places in the _winter_, in my experience, because everything is shut so airtight to keep the heat in. Especially in newer homes with super efficient windows etc. They're warmer, but the houses don't really breathe as easily.
I had power issues yesterday at my house. DTE reported 40,000-45,000 people still out this morning. Sandy was truly one big storm.
If only it were that easy. The size and number of greenhouses we'd need (never mind the energy required to keep them climate-controlled) makes that solution financially impractical:
Texas is heading for hell come next year if we don't start getting rains this upcoming winter/spring.
And they'd need to be really big to fit combine harvesters inside them.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
20:30 PM IST October 31 2012
=========================================
At 15:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam moved northwestward and now lays centered near 13.0N 79.5E, about 60 km west of Chennai, India. The system is likely to move further northwestward and weaken into a deep depression.
Shhhh that's the one I've been watching.
CNN
[Updated 2:41 p.m.] An update to the evacuation at New York City's Bellevue Hospital: The number of remaining patients who will be evacuated is about 700, and the process could take two days, a source familiar with the evacuation plan told CNN. Many critically ill patients were evacuated earlier.
The hospital's generators are on the 13th floor, but the pumps that supply oil to the generators are in the basement under 8 feet of water, the source said.
[Updated 2:12 p.m.] New York City's Bellevue Hospital will evacuate the remaining 500 patients inside, according to an e-mail from a hospital group sent to New York-area hospitals. Many critically ill patients were already evacuated, but about 500 remained. Ambulances are lined up outside the hospital in preparation, CNN's Dr. Sanjay Gupta reports.
[Updated 1:43 p.m.] The city of Long Beach, New York, says residents should evacuate if they have not already done so and not return until services such as water, sewer and power have been restored. Buses will go through neighborhoods to pick up residents and take them to shelters, according to the city's Facebook page.
A curfew will be in effect from 7 p.m. Wednesday to 6 a.m. Thursday.
Oh, good! I read that so I'm not on the list :)
Seriously, the news out Hoboken and Battery Park is almost too much to believe. I have been to the Jersey Shore a few times, and I cannot recognize familier neighborhoods or even understand the scope of the damage yet. And the fact the storm was bad all the way inland to Ohio is probably the most boggling yet. If you aren't safe from tropical weather in Ohio, where can you go? I suppose by then the storm was post tropical, but still...
Was much windier yesterday then it is today as you said.. and yes its a cold north wind blowing ..
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