Why did Hurricane Sandy take such an unusual track into New Jersey?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:33 PM GMT on October 31, 2012

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We're used to seeing hurricane-battered beaches and flooded cities in Florida, North Carolina, and the Gulf Coast. But to see these images from the Jersey Shore and New York City in the wake of Hurricane Sandy is a shocking experience. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in a portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much, and is too far north. How did this happen? How was a hurricane able to move from southeast to northwest at landfall, so far north, and so late in hurricane season? We expect hurricanes to move from east to west in the tropics, where the prevailing trade winds blow that direction. But the prevailing wind direction reverses at mid-latitudes, flowing predominately west-to-east, due to the spin of the Earth. Hurricanes that penetrate to about Florida's latitude usually get caught up in these westerly winds, and are whisked northeastwards, out to sea. However, the jet stream, that powerful band of upper-atmosphere west-to-east flowing air, has many dips and bulges. These troughs of low pressure and ridges of high pressure allow winds at mid-latitudes to flow more to the north or to the south. Every so often, a trough in the jet stream bends back on itself when encountering a ridge of high pressure stuck in place ahead of it. These "negatively tilted" troughs have winds that flow from southeast to northwest. It is this sort of negatively tilted trough that sucked in Sandy and allowed the hurricane to take such an unusual path into New Jersey.


Figure 1. Inlet section of Atlantic City, N.J., after Hurricane Sandy. Image credit: 6 ABC Action News.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 besides Sandy was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. However, the Vagabond Hurricane hit in September, when the jet stream is typically weaker and farther to the north. It is quite extraordinary that Sandy was able to hit New Jersey in late October, when the jet stream is typically stronger and farther south, making recurvature to the northeast much more likely than in September.


Figure 2. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

The blocking ridge that steered Sandy into New Jersey
A strong ridge of high pressure parked itself over Greenland beginning on October 20, creating a "blocking ridge" that prevented the normal west-to-east flow of winds over Eastern North America. Think of the blocking ridge like a big truck parked over Greenland. Storms approaching from the west (like the fall low pressure system that moved across the U.S. from California to Pennsylvania last week) or from the south (Hurricane Sandy) were blocked from heading to the northeast. Caught in the equivalent of an atmospheric traffic jam, the two storms collided over the Northeast U.S., combined into one, and are now waiting for the truck parked over Greenland to move. The strength of the blocking ridge, as measured by the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), was quite high--about two standard deviations from average, something that occurs approximately 5% of the time. When the NAO is in a strong negative phase, we tend to have blocking ridges over Greenland.


Figure 3. Jet stream winds at a pressure of 300 mb on October 29, 2012, as Hurricane Sandy approached the coast of New Jersey. Note that the wind direction over New Jersey (black arrows) was from the southeast, due to a negatively tilted trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. caused by a strong blocking ridge of high pressure over Greenland. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Arctic sea ice loss can cause blocking ridges
Blocking ridges occur naturally, but are uncommon over Greenland this time of year. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, blocking near the longitude of Greenland (50°W) only occurs about 2% of the time in the fall. These odds rise to about 6% in winter and spring. As I discussed in an April post, Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns, three studies published in the past year have found that the jet stream has been getting stuck in unusually strong blocking patterns in recent years. These studies found that the recent record decline in Arctic sea ice could be responsible, since this heats up the pole, altering the Equator-to-pole temperature difference, forcing the jet stream to slow down, meander, and get stuck in large loops. The 2012 Arctic sea ice melt season was extreme, with sea ice extent hitting a record lows. Could sea ice loss have contributed to the blocking ridge that steered Sandy into New Jersey? It is possible, but we will need to much more research on the subject before we make such a link, as the studies of sea ice loss on jet stream patterns are so new. The author of one of the new studies, Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers, had this say in a recent post by Andy Revkin in his Dot Earth blog: "While it’s impossible to say how this scenario might have unfolded if sea-ice had been as extensive as it was in the 1980s, the situation at hand is completely consistent with what I’d expect to see happen more often as a result of unabated warming and especially the amplification of that warming in the Arctic."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


You mean Ike in 2008
Yep. My brain was on Issac from reading another post. I knew it was wrong when I typed it. lol
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Is there a chance of Valerie or even William forming before and after the season ends? This could go into the Greek Alphabets.
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Quoting biff4ugo:
The next big question for hurricane survivors...Yes saltwater is bad on wiring but does salt water kill black mold?

Will colder northern temperatures help keep mold growth down?

Seriously, this is a hurricane related question.

Black Mold will still develop with salt water - it isn't terribly sensitive to salt. As for temps - it may actually increase it... outside, there will be much less black mold growth. But inside, it will go crazy, due to ideal growing conditions 24/7 (since doors and windows stay closed when it is cold outside).
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Quoting jskweather:


Having gone through Isaac in 2008, i can tell you that neither I, my family or any of our neighbors or anyone I met gave two craps about the WHY of Isaac's strengths, size or reason for it's path. We care about cleaning up, staying alive, talking to insurance adjusters.

So maybe in about 6-12 months the people being affected by Sandy will care about Sea Ice, but right now. No.


You mean Ike in 2008 or Isaac 2012.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting sonofagunn:


They probably care a lot about any and all factors that may lead to more storms in their region. More so than ever.


Having gone through Ike in 2008, i can tell you that neither I, my family or any of our neighbors or anyone I met gave two craps about the WHY of Isaac's strengths, size or reason for it's path. We care about cleaning up, staying alive, talking to insurance adjusters.

So maybe in about 6-12 months the people being affected by Sandy will care about Sea Ice, but right now. No.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
If we get Valerie...here is my thinking on how this season is going to end....

Alberto...60 mph...no change
Beryl....70 mph...could be 75 mph (low chance)
Chris... up to 80 mph...and lasted longer as a hurricane than what it actually did
Debby...60 mph...no change
Ernesto...up to 100-110 mph..intensified quickly right before landfall (eye developed)
Florence ...60 mph...the final TCR was already given.
Gordon...up to 115-120 mph...intensifies further for a longer time. The first major storm
Helene...probably became a storm as it was by the Lesser Antilles...no change in GOM.
Isaac...up to 85 mph..or no change.
Joyce...45 mph...no change
Kirk...105 mph...no change
Leslie...up to 80 mph...
Michael...up to 120-125...Idk why it stopped intensifying after reaching 115 mph...
Nadine...no comment about this one...
Oscar...50 mph...no change
Patty...45 mph..no change
Rafael...possibly to 100 mph...but may not be possible tough.
SANDY...115-120 MPH MAJOR DEVASTATING STORM...became major before hitting Cuba
Tony...50 mph...no change

that's how I see it guys...comments?


I made that type of comment many blogs ago, and your thinking is about the same as mine.
Why no comment on Nadine? Haha.
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Quoting JeffMasters:
Lost power at my house in Michigan this morning due to high winds from Sandy; 120,000 customers have lost power in MI so far from the storm. The scale of this storm is unbelievable.

Jeff Masters


I was told by the police to evacuate after they came to know on my door.
I left CT and now I'm MA. I watched the news yesterday and they said all that area has many trees down and it would take weeks to get the power back. I really hope nothing happened to my house. I can't go back because the roads are blocked around there
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting whitewabit:
Winds here in central Illinois (Peoria) have been 5-10 mph all morning .. Not getting the winds that are to the north ..


Well here in Decatur we are getting Northwest winds..



And so is Peoria currently...



Yesterday was extemely breezy in my area out of the north, I think there may have been an extreme gradient. The entire state of Indiana was under a wind advisory yesterday. So just being two counties away...
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1535
57. whitewabit (Mod)
Winds here in central Illinois (Peoria) have been 5-10 mph all morning .. Not getting the winds that are to the north ..
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The next big question for hurricane survivors...Yes saltwater is bad on wiring but does salt water kill black mold?

Will colder northern temperatures help keep mold growth down?

Seriously, this is a hurricane related question.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If we get Valerie...here is my thinking on how this season is going to end....

Alberto...60 mph...no change
Beryl....70 mph...could be 75 mph (low chance)
Chris... up to 80 mph...and lasted longer as a hurricane than what it actually did
Debby...60 mph...no change
Ernesto...up to 100-110 mph..intensified quickly right before landfall (eye developed)
Florence ...60 mph...the final TCR was already given.
Gordon...up to 115-120 mph...intensifies further for a longer time. The first major storm
Helene...probably became a storm as it was by the Lesser Antilles...no change in GOM.
Isaac...up to 85 mph..or no change.
Joyce...45 mph...no change
Kirk...105 mph...no change
Leslie...up to 80 mph...
Michael...up to 120-125...Idk why it stopped intensifying after reaching 115 mph...
Nadine...no comment about this one...
Oscar...50 mph...no change
Patty...45 mph..no change
Rafael...possibly to 100 mph...but may not be possible tough.
SANDY...115-120 MPH MAJOR DEVASTATING STORM...became major before hitting Cuba
Tony...50 mph...no change

that's how I see it guys...comments?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting JeffMasters:
Lost power at my house in Michigan this morning due to high winds from Sandy; 120,000 customers have lost power in MI so far from the storm. The scale of this storm is unbelievable.

Jeff Masters


In eastern Illinois we had consistent winds yesterday at an easy 20-30 knots from north to south. Made driving really annoying on east/west roads. Even today we are still getting good winds from the Northwest.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1535
I'm in MD, and we're very concerned. Thanks to Dr. Masters' blog, I learned about the interaction of climate change with both tropical and non-tropical weather. Because of the higher likelihood of heavy precipitation events and storms, due the warmer water and other GW effects, I outfitted our house for generator power. I figured the enhanced likelihood of both tropical storms (although I presumed that early-season July and August storms would be the problem, not late October!) and also heavier-precip winter storms would justify the cost.

My prep paid off during Snowmageddon, this summer's derecho, Irene, and now Sandy.

Fortunately, our house is on high ground, so we're resistant to freshwater flooding and well above the current surge zone. However, if global warming accelerates to an extreme pace and there is dramatic melting of terrestrial ice and a sea-level rise of more than 5 meters (I don't think it will in my lifetime, but the way things are going you never know) we could have oceanfront property!

I'd rather not take that chance, however, so we've mostly converted our day-to-day transport to person powered (bikes). We still have a car for long trips and hauling big items, but bike commuting is the easiest way I know to make a big difference in CO2 emissions. And I follow blogs like Dr. Masters to keep up with the science best I can, despite the distractions from commenters who either can't comprehend or do not care to deal with the climate changes taking place and their causes.


I can understand the fear here. When we endured the 2004 and 2005 seasons there was real fear that we were going to have recurring issues with hurricanes year after year. And the funny thing was, that didn't happen. It has been 7 years now with only near misses.

I am in full agreement that climate change is at work here but the reality seams to be that these events are chance happenings and you could have had a near miss in New Jersey just the same. The best course is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. And don't add undue risk.
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51. JeffMasters (Admin)
Lost power at my house in Michigan this morning due to high winds from Sandy; 120,000 customers have lost power in MI so far from the storm. The scale of this storm is unbelievable.

Jeff Masters
Quoting ncstorm:
BWI,

If you were face to face with someone who just lost their house and all their belongings and you proceed to tell them that the reason they are homeless that Artic Sea Ice destroyed their homes, I'm sure that conversation will be brief..My point was the immediate focus for those who are dealing with harsh conditions from Sandy is not climate change but helping those who need it..monetary donations and volunteering are very much the priority than GW or AGW discussion..



Right at the moment, I do agree that the priority is on helping people deal with their immediate and desperate needs. The people hit by this are real, and their immediate needs are real, and they need all sorts of support _now_ to be safe and start to get their lives back in order.

But in a longer term sense, and in the bigger picture, people will almost certainly care if this is becoming something we can expect to experience more often, as the ice really goes and as we start to see more and more impacts overall from the climate going wonky.
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Quoting ncstorm:
I wonder if people in NY, MD, VA, PA, DC, NC, CT and NJ who have lost property and family members and currently without power care about the Artic Sea Ice?


The short term concerns of those hit hard by Sandy will be the essentials of survival and clean up.

Longer term I would expect them to look for answers as to why such an unprecedented storm occurred, and whether this could ever be expected again.

In that context, the issue of global climate change is hard to ignore. No country has put more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than the US, and probably no country has done more to undermine global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions than the US.

It is not good science to say that global climate change caused Sandy (because there are too many variables to allow one to say that with certainty), but it is quite reasonable to say that a storm like Sandy is consistent with what we can expect to see more of as the global climate continues to warm.

It is heartbreaking to see the death and destruction that Sandy wrought along the US East Coast. But these sort of scenes are playing out with increasing frequency all over the globe. When they happen far away (eg. in the Maldives) we pay them little heed. When they happen here, they demand our attention.

Modern human civilization is extraordinarily vulnerable to the effects of global climate change. Sandy is a wake up call for us all.
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Michelle Fantus
@MichelleFantus

@nydailynews here's a shot of traffic on the Queensboro Bridge right now

pic.twitter.com/CE3tMOnM

7:54am Wed Oct 31

By: Michelle Fantus @MichelleFantus

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Quoting txjac:
I know that it is nothing in comparison to what is going on on the east coast ...but my brother in Ohio has lost part of the roof on the back porch of his house and two trees in the yard. One of the trees fell on him as he and his sons were trying to brace it ...luckiy he only suffered a broken leg.

It has been raining in his portion of Ohio for days on end and is still raining there ..when Sandy's bands came through he had high wind gusts ...thats what got the trees and the roof.

My sincerest, positive thoughts and prayers to ever affected by this monstrous storm!

Jo
Good afternoon all. I am sorry to hear about your brother's misfortune but I am gald he is still alive. That is what counts in the end. You can rebuild, replace, move or whatever as long as you are alive.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
BWI,

If you were face to face with someone who just lost their house and all their belongings and you proceed to tell them that the reason they are homeless that Artic Sea Ice destroyed their homes, I'm sure that conversation will be brief..My point was the immediate focus for those who are dealing with harsh conditions from Sandy is not climate change but helping those who need it..monetary donations and volunteering are very much the priority

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16039
Quoting ncstorm:
I wonder if people in NY, MD, VA, PA, DC, NC, CT and NJ who have lost property and family members and currently without power care about the Artic Sea Ice?


If it increased their chances of a hurricane hitting them in October, I have a feeling they might just be interested. But maybe that's just me.
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
The truth is, meteorology is in uncharted territory right now, and this will be even truer in the months to come.

I don't need science to tell me that we're in trouble. My sixth sense already tells me that. I need science to tell THEM, that a lot of people are going to die if we don't do something very fast. We don't need to scare everyone by saying it's probably too late, but at least we might have time to make some plans for moving our crop lands if we start thinking about where the moisture will go as the planet heats up.

This whole argument that we can become self-sufficient on fossil fuels in the U.S. is suicide, but we're still debating it. This storm was a slam in the face from a higher power to anyone paying close attention, but you won't hear that from the preachers or the scientists, which means there's only one voice we should be listening to, and her fist is about to pound U.S. into oblivion.

Here's my crystal ball. The deserts will bloom, but the soil will prove insufficient to provide adequate harvests without a lot more planning. We need to look quickly and carefully at where it was wet, when it was dry, and vice-verse.

We need meteorology to speculate on where we'll be able to grow our food, now. That's the real forecast we'll need.





The thing is, I'm not personally confident that anywhere will be stable enough or predictable enough for quite a while. It's going to take a long time for the climate to find some kind of a new "equilibrium." And until then, in a sort of "big picture" sense, I strongly suspect we're looking at totally destabilized patterns _everywhere_ -- wild swings between drought and flood and heat and freezing cold, etc.

Which makes farming _anywhere_ really difficult. Agriculture depends on knowing the seasonal patterns relatively well, knowing roughly what to predict -- maybe you have a bad year here and there, but overall you can count on a relatively stable set of shifts. If there _isn't_ a really stable pattern, how do you farm?
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Quoting txjac:
I know that it is nothing in comparison to what is going on on the east coast ...but my brother in Ohio has lost part of the roof on the back porch of his house and two trees in the yard. One of the trees fell on him as he and his sons were trying to brace it ...luckiy he only suffered a broken leg.

It has been raining in his portion of Ohio for days on end and is still raining there ..when Sandy's bands came through he had high wind gusts ...thats what got the trees and the roof.

My sincerest, positive thoughts and prayers to ever affected by this monstrous storm!

Jo


The breadth and scale of this thing is really jaw-dropping. Some of the damage into Ohio is really pretty bad -- I mean, the east coast is a huge disaster in scale, but each of the impacts elsewhere is also major to the people going through it and dealing with damage to property and sometimes also to life and limb.

Glad he's basically ok, though a broken leg is nothing to sneeze at, either. Good thoughts his way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The truth is, meteorology is in uncharted territory right now, and this will be even truer in the months to come.

I don't need science to tell me that we're in trouble. My sixth sense already tells me that. I need science to tell THEM, that a lot of people are going to die if we don't do something very fast. We don't need to scare everyone by saying it's probably too late, but at least we might have time to make some plans for moving our crop lands if we start thinking about where the moisture will go as the planet heats up.

This whole argument that we can become self-sufficient on fossil fuels in the U.S. is suicide, but we're still debating it. This storm was a slam in the face from a higher power to anyone paying close attention, but you won't hear that from the preachers or the scientists, which means there's only one voice we should be listening to, and her fist is about to pound U.S. into oblivion.

Here's my crystal ball. The deserts will bloom, but the soil will prove insufficient to provide adequate harvests without a lot more planning. We need to look quickly and carefully at where it was wet, when it was dry, and vice-verse.

We need meteorology to speculate on where we'll be able to grow our food, now. That's the real forecast we'll need.



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41. bwi
Quoting ncstorm:
I wonder if people in NY, MD, VA, PA, DC, NC, CT and NJ who have lost property and family members and currently without power care about the Artic Sea Ice?


I'm in MD, and we're very concerned. Thanks to Dr. Masters' blog, I learned about the interaction of climate change with both tropical and non-tropical weather. Because of the higher likelihood of heavy precipitation events and storms, due the warmer water and other GW effects, I outfitted our house for generator power. I figured the enhanced likelihood of both tropical storms (although I presumed that early-season July and August storms would be the problem, not late October!) and also heavier-precip winter storms would justify the cost.

My prep paid off during Snowmageddon, this summer's derecho, Irene, and now Sandy.

Fortunately, our house is on high ground, so we're resistant to freshwater flooding and well above the current surge zone. However, if global warming accelerates to an extreme pace and there is dramatic melting of terrestrial ice and a sea-level rise of more than 5 meters (I don't think it will in my lifetime, but the way things are going you never know) we could have oceanfront property!

I'd rather not take that chance, however, so we've mostly converted our day-to-day transport to person powered (bikes). We still have a car for long trips and hauling big items, but bike commuting is the easiest way I know to make a big difference in CO2 emissions. And I follow blogs like Dr. Masters to keep up with the science best I can, despite the distractions from commenters who either can't comprehend or do not care to deal with the climate changes taking place and their causes.
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I know that it is nothing in comparison to what is going on on the east coast ...but my brother in Ohio has lost part of the roof on the back porch of his house and two trees in the yard. One of the trees fell on him as he and his sons were trying to brace it ...luckiy he only suffered a broken leg.

It has been raining in his portion of Ohio for days on end and is still raining there ..when Sandy's bands came through he had high wind gusts ...thats what got the trees and the roof.

My sincerest, positive thoughts and prayers to ever affected by this monstrous storm!

Jo
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I think we will finish the list, Valerie south of the Azores and William in the SW Caribbean.
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Quoting FatPenguin:



And we're quietly having one of the busiest 2 and 3 year periods on record.

YR/TS/H/Major
2012 19/10/1
2011 19/7/4
2010 19/12/5

57 named storms in the last 3 years.



Unbelievable, and hopefully over soon. We could all use a bit of quiet after the last few years in the tropics.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
12z GFS is on again with a SW Caribbean development in long range. I would like to see the king of the models (ECMWF) that nailed Sandy starting to show it and if that happens,then is game on.



That could be the one Sandy drew up from S America that escaped her inflow and is meandering in the central Caribbean. That one's been relatively persistent. And I still think that eastern Atlantic wave bears watching.
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Quoting goosegirl1:


They are dealing with the immediate need right now. But later, I'd think most of them would like to know "why", or at least I would. Maybe there is no answer.

It is breaking my heart, seeing the pictures coming out of NJ and NY. I know the east coast beaches well, I have my whole like in the midatlantic, and I just can't get my mind around this. It will never be the same.


I really hope your family comes out okay in this..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16039
Quoting CybrTeddy:
For what it's worth, 2012 has the exact same ACE score as 2011, 121 points.



And we're quietly having one of the busiest 2 and 3 year periods on record.

YR/TS/H/Major
2012 19/10/1
2011 19/7/4
2010 19/12/5

57 named storms in the last 3 years.
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34. 7544

so our next invest if we get one will be back to 90L? correct tia




















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Quoting ncstorm:


maybe..but Im thinking most people are caring about heat, food, clothing, shelter, insurance premiums, loss of employment, funeral expenses, hospital bills, loss of transporation than some ice thousands of miles away from them..


They are dealing with the immediate need right now. But later, I'd think most of them would like to know "why", or at least I would. Maybe there is no answer.

It is breaking my heart, seeing the pictures coming out of NJ and NY. I know the east coast beaches well, I have my whole life in the mid atlantic, and I just can't get my mind around this. It will never be the same.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
12z GFS is on again with a SW Caribbean development in long range. I would like to see the king of the models (ECMWF) that nailed Sandy starting to show it and if that happens,then is game on.

Give ECMWF a break! It has been working very hard lately...let another model take over! ECMWF is officially on vacation.

LOL.
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The GFS and the ECMWF are both showing development south of the Azores by 168 hours or so.
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HOBOKEN, N.J. New Jersey National Guard trucks are evacuating the city of Hoboken and delivering ready-to-eat meals to thousands who have been stranded in their homes by floodwaters from Superstorm Sandy.

About half the city remains flooded two days after the storm made landfall. Live wires dangled in floodwaters that Mayor Dawn Zimmer said were rapidly mixing with sewage.

With streets resembling lakes, thousands are still holed up in their brownstones, condos, and other housing in the mile-square city across the Hudson River from Manhattan.

On Sunday Zimmer ordered an evacuation of basement and street-level units. Payloaders have been used to get people out for medical emergencies, but the mayor's spokesman, Juan Melli, says the streets are so narrow they can get stuck, CBS Station WCBS reports.

The city is asking people with generators and boats to bring them to city hall, which is on dry ground and powered by a backup generator.





"We will make it through this together," said Zimmer. "All our emergency personnel and volunteers have been working so hard under the most extreme circumstances to keep our community safe."
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Quoting goosegirl1:



According to the Dr.'s entry, they should. This is coming from WV, with a state trooper brother on active duty and a sister with 4 little boys coping without electricity in a blizzard. Bet they care, too.


maybe..but Im thinking most people are caring about heat, food, clothing, shelter, insurance premiums, loss of employment, funeral expenses, hospital bills, loss of transporation than some ice thousands of miles away from them..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16039
What are the "odds" that with additional Arctic sea ice melt, a blocking high will get "pinned" to the Greenland cold pole?
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12z GFS is on again with a SW Caribbean development in long range. I would like to see the king of the models (ECMWF) that nailed Sandy starting to show it and if that happens,then is game on.

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Quoting FunnelVortex:
Is there chance of another development this year?


Yes, the ECMWF is hinting at our next named storm south of the Azores. My thinking is the final total will be 20-10-2, with Sandy being added as a major hurricane post season.
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Is there chance of another development this year?
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Thanks Dr. Masters it makes sense that the loss of Arctic Sea Ice would cause a blocking ridge as the warm sst anomalies extends all the way into the North Atlantic which causes evaporation and rising air. With a ridge over the North Atlantic usually means a trough along the East Coast, so it is like a funnel for storms to go through. If that becomes the new norm. the East Coast could see more storms in the future.
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Quoting ncstorm:
I wonder if people in NY, MD, VA, PA, DC, NC, CT and NJ who have lost property and family members and currently without power care about the Artic Sea Ice?
Quoting ncstorm:
I wonder if people in NY, MD, VA, PA, DC, NC, CT and NJ who have lost property and family members and currently without power care about the Artic Sea Ice?



According to the Dr.'s entry, they should. This is coming from WV, with a state trooper brother on active duty and a sister with 4 little boys coping without electricity in a blizzard. Bet they care, too.
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Quoting ncstorm:
I wonder if people in NY, MD, VA, PA, DC, NC, CT and NJ who have lost property and family members and currently without power care about the Artic Sea Ice?


I'm sure they're focused on other more immediate things at the moment, like staying warm or figuring out what to do with their flood damage. But if this pattern (or something like it) is becoming a regular or semi-regular climate feature for now, given that the sea ice is not going to be getting stronger anytime soon, those dealing with the impacts most directly probably do care, yes. Probably more than anybody.
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Signal to noise ratio is pretty sucky around these parts lately.
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Incredible aerial footage of Hurricane Sandy damage to Seaside Heights, N.J. ... a beachfront amusement park destroyed, a new inlet cut right through a neighborhood. These homes were not built on stilts like most barrier island buildings are in more hurricane-prone areas.
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Thanks Dr. Masters for explaining the forces that were in play during Hurricaine Sandy's life as a tropical then post tropical storm..
As you say she has turned into a low pressure system stuck until the high blocking system moves..
At least thats what I understand from your post today..
Thanks again for your update and taking extra time in your explanation today for people like "me" to get a grip on understand the weather set-up with Hurricaine Sandy..
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For what it's worth, 2012 has the exact same ACE score as 2011, 121 points.
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www.bloom berg.com

Hoboken

Wearing a New York Giants sweatshirt and shorts, Kevin McGowan waded into water 3-feet deep outside his second-floor condo in Hoboken, New Jersey, carrying a portable crib and high chair for his two daughters still inside.

His family has been without power and hot water for two days after superstorm Sandy flooded the square-mile city of 50,000 across the Hudson River from Manhattan. National Guard troops arrived to evacuate thousands still stuck in their homes, and the city’s New Jersey Transit hub remained shut.

“I had to walk up in the gasoline and water basically to get out,” said McGowan, 38, who works for Citigroup Inc. (C) in Manhattan. ...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.