Why did Hurricane Sandy take such an unusual track into New Jersey?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:33 PM GMT on October 31, 2012

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We're used to seeing hurricane-battered beaches and flooded cities in Florida, North Carolina, and the Gulf Coast. But to see these images from the Jersey Shore and New York City in the wake of Hurricane Sandy is a shocking experience. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in a portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much, and is too far north. How did this happen? How was a hurricane able to move from southeast to northwest at landfall, so far north, and so late in hurricane season? We expect hurricanes to move from east to west in the tropics, where the prevailing trade winds blow that direction. But the prevailing wind direction reverses at mid-latitudes, flowing predominately west-to-east, due to the spin of the Earth. Hurricanes that penetrate to about Florida's latitude usually get caught up in these westerly winds, and are whisked northeastwards, out to sea. However, the jet stream, that powerful band of upper-atmosphere west-to-east flowing air, has many dips and bulges. These troughs of low pressure and ridges of high pressure allow winds at mid-latitudes to flow more to the north or to the south. Every so often, a trough in the jet stream bends back on itself when encountering a ridge of high pressure stuck in place ahead of it. These "negatively tilted" troughs have winds that flow from southeast to northwest. It is this sort of negatively tilted trough that sucked in Sandy and allowed the hurricane to take such an unusual path into New Jersey.


Figure 1. Inlet section of Atlantic City, N.J., after Hurricane Sandy. Image credit: 6 ABC Action News.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 besides Sandy was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. However, the Vagabond Hurricane hit in September, when the jet stream is typically weaker and farther to the north. It is quite extraordinary that Sandy was able to hit New Jersey in late October, when the jet stream is typically stronger and farther south, making recurvature to the northeast much more likely than in September.


Figure 2. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

The blocking ridge that steered Sandy into New Jersey
A strong ridge of high pressure parked itself over Greenland beginning on October 20, creating a "blocking ridge" that prevented the normal west-to-east flow of winds over Eastern North America. Think of the blocking ridge like a big truck parked over Greenland. Storms approaching from the west (like the fall low pressure system that moved across the U.S. from California to Pennsylvania last week) or from the south (Hurricane Sandy) were blocked from heading to the northeast. Caught in the equivalent of an atmospheric traffic jam, the two storms collided over the Northeast U.S., combined into one, and are now waiting for the truck parked over Greenland to move. The strength of the blocking ridge, as measured by the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), was quite high--about two standard deviations from average, something that occurs approximately 5% of the time. When the NAO is in a strong negative phase, we tend to have blocking ridges over Greenland.


Figure 3. Jet stream winds at a pressure of 300 mb on October 29, 2012, as Hurricane Sandy approached the coast of New Jersey. Note that the wind direction over New Jersey (black arrows) was from the southeast, due to a negatively tilted trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. caused by a strong blocking ridge of high pressure over Greenland. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Arctic sea ice loss can cause blocking ridges
Blocking ridges occur naturally, but are uncommon over Greenland this time of year. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, blocking near the longitude of Greenland (50°W) only occurs about 2% of the time in the fall. These odds rise to about 6% in winter and spring. As I discussed in an April post, Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns, three studies published in the past year have found that the jet stream has been getting stuck in unusually strong blocking patterns in recent years. These studies found that the recent record decline in Arctic sea ice could be responsible, since this heats up the pole, altering the Equator-to-pole temperature difference, forcing the jet stream to slow down, meander, and get stuck in large loops. The 2012 Arctic sea ice melt season was extreme, with sea ice extent hitting a record lows. Could sea ice loss have contributed to the blocking ridge that steered Sandy into New Jersey? It is possible, but we will need to much more research on the subject before we make such a link, as the studies of sea ice loss on jet stream patterns are so new. The author of one of the new studies, Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers, had this say in a recent post by Andy Revkin in his Dot Earth blog: "While it’s impossible to say how this scenario might have unfolded if sea-ice had been as extensive as it was in the 1980s, the situation at hand is completely consistent with what I’d expect to see happen more often as a result of unabated warming and especially the amplification of that warming in the Arctic."

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25321
415. redux
Quoting txag91met:
Link analogs for Sandy (today).

1991, 2010, 2003, 1996, 1955, 1985.

Large blocks have happened before. I like the the theory, but I am not so sure about it.


you do realize that of the 6 years listed, 5 have been in the past 27 years, and the 6th one occurred 30 years before 1985?

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Quoting guygee:
Also some kinds of apples need to be cross-fertilized by other types, and other kinds not so much.

But goosegirl is correct that the kinds of apples they sell in grocery stores even in Florida need a lot of chill hours. I do not think Florida is producing apples and at the commercial level, at least not yet

Goosegirl stated, "But they all need a cold, dormant period to produce fruit. Florida's climate doesn't allow for that." This is not correct for ALL varieties. For the "grocery store type, yes, but not for the varieties The U of F have worked with. They went through a lot of research to find the right varieties and the right rootstock to allow for these trees to produce with the extremely low chill in Central and more so in South Florida.

You mean cross pollinated :)

Yes, the "northern" variety apples are not what is grown in Florida (best Fla varieties are the TropicSweet, Anna and Golden Dorsett) and not really grown on a true commercial level however there are some u-pick apple orchards in Florida. One of the main reasons commercial orchards are not established is due to the timing of the harvest in Florida, there are too many varieties/quantity coming out of the Northeast and Pacific NW that Florida could not compete.

Now peaches are a different story. There are commercial peach orchards in Florida (though not as many as in Georgia and South Carolina) and a Florida tree ripened, fresh picked peach is as good as and for the most part better than a Georgia peach. Florida grown peaches can even be found in Publix at times.
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Good night guys!

From CNN

[Updated 10:32 p.m.]– New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo declares a transportation emergency Wednesday and authorizes the Department of Transportation to waive fares through Friday as an inducement to get people to take mass transit.

[Updated 8:52 p.m.] The following video shows some of the devastation in and around Seaside Heights, New Jersey, a city known in part for hosting several seasons of MTV's "Jersey Shore." A roller coaster is in the ocean, and house after house is destroyed.

The mayor of the barrier island community says residents will be shocked by the destruction when they're able to get back there.

[Updated 8:33 p.m.] The number of U.S. deaths believed to be linked to Sandy has risen to at least 56, according to a CNN tally. That's 28 in New York; nine in Pennsylvania; six in New Jersey; five in West Virginia; two in Maryland; two in Connecticut; two in Virginia; one in North Carolina; and one on the HMS Bounty in the Atlantic.

One death in Canada and 67 in the Caribbean also are attributed to Sandy. So, CNN's total death toll for Sandy is at least 124.

[Updated 7:33 p.m.] About 5.5 million customers remain without power in 15 states and the District of Columbia, according to a CNN tally. That number dropped by about 400,000 in six hours.

[Updated 7:08 p.m.] Some details on why New York's Bellevue Hospital – one of the nation's largest hospitals – is being evacuated: The building lost regular electricity service during the storm, and backup generators have been providing power since then. But people have been having to carry fuel up 13 flights of stairs because the fuel pumps that normally supply the generators are in the basement, and the basement is flooded, a source told CNN.

Officials decided Wednesday that the fuel pumps aren't salvageable. "What they realize is that their emergency generators are not continuing to work well," said Dr. Sanjay Gupta, CNN's chief medical correspondent, who was reporting from outside the hospital Wednesday.

So, rather than continuing under these conditions, with regular power service not expected soon, officials decided to evacuate the remaining 700 patients. The most critically ill patients were evacuated earlier.

The evacuation process could take a couple days.

[Updated 6:35 p.m.] Metro Transit Authority chairman Joe Lhota talks about what it will take to get the New York City subway system running. Parts of it – north of Manhattan's 34th Street – are expected to be running Thursday.
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Quoting LargoFl:
well I know..who DID get that flooding forecast right..days in advance too..........crown weather and i posted it too...
Other mets where talking about NYC flooding on this board including myself, days in advance.

I even sent an email to CNN warning them on Friday.
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Quoting trey33:


I hope you are wrong too, but have a strong feeling you are right. I only wish we had federal reserves to tap to fund some of the city/county damages that you know they don't have the funds to fix. Going back to Andrew - my only frame of reference - the SBA gave loans to those who needed to rebuild, it took time but it was fixed. The federal budget was balanced back in 1994, not like today. Not sure China can loan us much more. I wouldn't.


side note: my job was cut as part of the 94 federal budget ...not very happy.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 499
Link analogs for 7 days out.

1991, 2010, 2003, 1996, 1955, 1985.

Large blocks have happened before. I like the the theory, but I am not so sure about it. Strong -NAO signatures have happened in late October, early November. It was just a "perfect setup"...1 in 200 or 300 shot for Sandy.
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Quoting ge2655:
I’m afraid it is going to get very ugly in many areas of the northeast very soon. There are too many people that have become ‘dependant’ on ‘receiving’ and not earning. When the ‘entitlement’ faucet does not flow at a normal rate, patience will not be practiced and the ‘have-nots’ may begin to prey on the ‘haves’. God, I hope I’m wrong but I just have a bad feeling about this.

-Gary


I hope you are wrong too, but have a strong feeling you are right. I only wish we had federal reserves to tap to fund some of the city/county damages that you know they don't have the funds to fix. Going back to Andrew - my only frame of reference - the SBA gave loans to those who needed to rebuild, it took time but it was fixed. The federal budget was balanced back in 1994, not like today. Not sure China can loan us much more. I wouldn't.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 499
What is the curse supposedly associated with the 2012 list of recycled names dating back to 1982? I'm just curious.

In other news, I'm from Rhode Island and Sandy did minor amounts of damage to my town of Cranston. The western half of the city is without power currently and could be for the coming days, as National Grid restores it. Providence and Kent Counties were not hit particularly hard by Sandy. Washington, Bristol, and Newport counties however have been severely damaged in parts. The town of Westerly and Narragansett in particular were hard hit by Sandy's massive storm surge. Many homes and businesses in these towns were completely destroyed. The recovery effort is going to take a long time; but New Englanders and the people of the North East are resilient folks and we shall persevere! My thoughts and prayers go out to all of the victims and their families of this catastrophic storm.
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:


we are not in the 80's when people actually took care of themselves. obama is president, get with the times dont you know govt hand outs are the only way some people live now? people think they are entitled to everything now when in fact they arent for anything....ROMNEY 2012!


It must be nice.
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Quoting ge2655:
I’m afraid it is going to get very ugly in many areas of the northeast very soon. There are too many people that have become ‘dependant’ on ‘receiving’ and not earning. When the ‘entitlement’ faucet does not flow at a normal rate, patience will not be practiced and the ‘have-nots’ may begin to prey on the ‘haves’. God, I hope I’m wrong but I just have a bad feeling about this.

-Gary
Bring back the jobs from China that our billionaires sent over there and those people will work their way back up. The greedy elites took all of the productivity gains that were created by the people and ripped-off the savings for themselves.
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TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012
800 PM PDT WED OCT 31 2012

A 0145Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF ROSA IS STILL DISPLACED
TO THE WEST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION BY ABOUT 10 KNOTS OF WESTERLY
SHEAR. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 3.5/55
KT FROM TAFB AND 3.0/45 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT. ROSA SHOULD BE PEAKING IN
INTENSITY SOON AS THE SHEAR ALREADY APPEARS TO BE RESTRICTING
OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR
INCREASING TO OVER 20 KT BY 12 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
GRADUAL WEAKENING. DECAY TO REMNANT LOW STATUS IS FORECAST BY 96
HOURS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES EVEN MORE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/02. A SLOW WESTWARD OR WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
ROSA IS SITUATED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A BROAD
FLAT TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH. THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS QUITE LARGE AFTER THAT TIME. THE GFS AND HWRF SHOW ROSA
MOVING EASTWARD AND THEN TURNING NORTHWARD AS THE CYCLONE COMES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL LOW THAT FORMS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THE ECMWF
SHOWS A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS ROSA INTERACTS WITH
A WEAKER POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH...ENDING UP ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE GFS AT DAY 5. GIVEN THAT THE GFS/HWRF SOLUTION
STILL APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION. THE NEW NHC TRACK LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN...BUT IS
A BIT SLOWER THAN...A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
AT DAYS 4 AND 5. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
IS LOWER THAN NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 14.1N 118.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 14.1N 118.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 14.1N 118.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 14.0N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 13.9N 119.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 14.0N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 14.5N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0000Z 16.0N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:


the govt will pay for it anyways i dont know what you all are talking about!
No. This is not true, it was never true. I lived in NE Ohio in the early 1980's and an F-5 tornado came through very close to my in-laws house. The next neighborhood over was totally destroyed...every house had severe damage, most with no roofs and half the walls left. I helped some guy pull his washer and dryer out of his basement, his house was opened up like a tin can.

The point is that it was an old neighborhood and most everyone had paid off their house and dropped their insurance. They lost everything. Yeah, maybe the government gave them food stamps, but I sure as hell know for a fact they did not get their houses and property back.
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I’m afraid it is going to get very ugly in many areas of the northeast very soon. There are too many people that have become ‘dependant’ on ‘receiving’ and not earning. When the ‘entitlement’ faucet does not flow at a normal rate, patience will not be practiced and the ‘have-nots’ may begin to prey on the ‘haves’. God, I hope I’m wrong but I just have a bad feeling about this.

-Gary
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Quoting ktymisty:


Not a personal attack or anything, but have you read the broken window falacy? Here's a short summary

TLDR: Economics is not a short term subject. The effort you are seeing and the work you are seeing in the clean up is hiding the loss of work you can't see and never will...
But on the other hand, the ongoing work does mean that there is some activity in the economy. It may not be growing, but it's not inactive either.

Not that I know anything about economics.

Quoting clark1mt:


I don't think this storm will have a resounding economic impact any more than any other single storm. As others have said, by and large, Sandy didn't fundamentally alter anything from an economic standpoint. Aside from the two-day closure of the stock markets (which is hardly unprecedented), and except for the people who directly felt the storm, it was business as usual for the rest of the country. There isn't a financial panic or any run on banks or anything that was triggered by this storm. At worst, Sandy would accelerate by a few months what was already going to happen.

If Katrina didn't throw the world into a depression by itself, neither will Sandy.

(First time commenter)
Welcome to the blog... good start!

Quoting guygee:
Sandy really slowed down over the upper Bahamas, although she was not as strong as she got farther north that must have been kind of nerve-wracking. Is it that the folk in the Bahamas are just better prepared or that Sandy was so much stronger farther north?

(I'm guessing a little of both)
We got some serious damage here, especially considering that in the Northern Bahamas Sandy [1] did not make a direct landfall [2] had been downgraded to a Cat 1. In the Central Bahamas, there was considerable wind damage, but nothing compared to the surge damage in vulnerable areas as lots of beachfront roads were torn away and homes in lowlying areas were flooded. IMO that fast forward speed in the Central Bahamas kept things from being worse here; it prolly helped at the Jersey shore, too.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012
800 PM PDT WED OCT 31 2012

...ROSA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 118.1W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
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TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012
0300 UTC THU NOV 01 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 118.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 118.1W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 118.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.1N 118.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.1N 118.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.0N 118.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.9N 119.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.0N 119.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 14.5N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 16.0N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 118.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Quoting sfranz:
>
Guess he'll have to live with that call.



Him and all too many others... 8-(
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Quoting hunkerdown:

Wrong....as guygee stated, the University of Florida has developed low chill apples, along with low chill peaches, plums and pears, all that will successfully fruit in SOUTH FLORIDA.
Also some kinds of apples need to be cross-fertilized by other types, and other kinds not so much.

But goosegirl is correct that the kinds of apples they sell in grocery stores even in Florida need a lot of chill hours. I do not think Florida is producing apples and at the commercial level, at least not yet
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Quoting guygee:
Good point, but I don't think that will be as true for New Jersey. Those folks are in big trouble compared to people in Manhattan.


Listening to CNBC today, the insurance companies have kept a lot of cash (nothing to invest in lately because interest rates so low) so those who are well insured should have ready access. However, those who chose to go bare (especially small businesses because of the recession) and other homeowners are in a lot of trouble.

I remember Andrew, and the SBA setting up outside tables to issue grants and loans to those who needed it. That was during a recession too, but am guessing that is no longer available???
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 499
Don't believe I've seen this posted yet. Grim situation still unfolding:

https://twitter.com/TWC_Shawn/status/263809298969 288705

Grim news from WNBC-TV, rescuers going door-to-door on Staten Island finding a lot of people who drowned inside their homes #Sandy
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Quoting guygee:
Good point, but I don't think that will be as true for New Jersey. Those folks are in big trouble compared to people in Manhattan.


the govt will pay for it anyways i dont know what you all are talking about!
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 570
Quoting Chicklit:

Also New York is not the south. There is a lot of money there. So rebuilding is not such a challenge due to lack of revenues.
Good point, but I don't think that will be as true for New Jersey. Those folks are in big trouble compared to people in Manhattan.
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Quoting guygee:


(I'm guessing a little of both)


Yes, the Bahamas get hit on a regular basis. Probably more prepared.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 499
Quoting Autistic2:
Let me assume Climate change is occurring, ice is melting and ocean levels are rising.

Fact, I live in fl and 3 % of my homeowners insurance goes to a company called Citizens ins. This is simply the state of Fl. They own Citizens and they ONLY insure people that cannot get insurance elsewhere, (read waterfront, river, stream, beach). This ins is provided to them at about 60% of retail rate. Most (not all) of these homes are multimillion dollar homes.

The state and county have issued a one time beach refurbishment fee on everyone’s property tax in the county. They have issued this one time fee eleven times in 3 years. No we have not had one hurricane in that time. Just a few good nor’easters. They put it on the property tax so if you don’t pay you loose your property. This beach refurbishment is for the STATED purpose of protecting the beachfront property owners.

Now under my assumption that sea levels will continue to rise, when will we stop people from building on the beach on a barrier island or flood plain? (never) I can hear people now screaming about their “rights” to build there and yet me and people like me keep paying to protect their houses.

If sea levels are truly rising we are going to HAVE to change where and how we build and how we insure those buildings. We will no longer be able to maintain places directly exposed to the oceans or ocean front but below sea level. We may have been able to maintain those places in the past at quite some cost (usually born by the many for the few) but as more and more places become endangered by raising ocean levels…..


Do you have a link to a source that shows others are paying 3% into Citizen's Insurance? All I know is that we are now paying double the amount to Citizen's as we were to our private company just 3 years ago. Where do you see it it 60% of the retail rate?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25321
Quoting goosegirl1:
I asked the gardening hubby about apples- some varieties are pollen sterile, and need another variety of apples around to pollinate and fruit. Others are just fine on their own. But they all need a cold, dormant period to produce fruit. Florida's climate doesn't allow for that.

Wrong....as guygee stated, the University of Florida has developed low chill apples, along with low chill peaches, plums and pears, all that will successfully fruit in SOUTH FLORIDA.
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Quoting Astrometeor:


Don't worry, H. Sandy won't have any chance of sending us into recession/depression. It just won't have that big of an impact on our economy, what truly runs whether or not we are in a depression is the stock-market, and that is back open, so no loss there. Some analysts even think there might be an economic GAIN from Sandy as people are put to work and money is spent to recover-a fresh injection of money flow.

Also New York is not the south. There is a lot of money there. So rebuilding is not such a challenge due to lack of revenues.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

...I was talking about the fact that, in 1997, they accurately predicted the track and name of the storm to affect the Northeast.

And they called for a 10-15' storm surge too.

Coincidence or very good forecasting?




Spooky! O.o
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
AccuWeather Article.....+100 (thumbs up)

No Hurricane Warning for What Could Be the Most Expensive Storm in History

Hurricane Sandy may turn out to be the most expensive storm to hit the U.S.(east coast) -- causing damage to 15 states and power outages to over 8 million people -- yet the National Hurricane Center did not issue hurricane warnings north of North Carolina.
Dead horse. Warnings were issued. There were no hurricane warnings because it wasn't a hurricane anymore.
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Quoting cyclonekid:
That's bologna. There wasn't a Hurricane Sandy in 1997. That year didn't even get past the "G" name. :P

...I was talking about the fact that, in 1997, they accurately predicted the track and name of the storm to affect the Northeast.

And they called for a 10-15' storm surge too.

Coincidence or very good forecasting?
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Quoting Autistic2:
[...]
Now under my assumption that sea levels will continue to rise, when will we stop people from building on the beach on a barrier island or flood plain? [...].
I do not know about the "building" part, but fewer and fewer people will live on barrier islands as the cost of insurance continues to skyrocket.

I live on a barrier island, but not in a flood zone. Supposedly my neighborhood will not flood from surge unless we get hit head-on by a CAT 5. But I am already paying more for insurance than I am paying on principal, interest and taxes combined...a lot more.

I am seriously thinking about buying elsewhere and just walking away from this place unless I can get my insurance costs down.

There are quite a few vacant homes beach-side right now, and I am expecting the number to keep going up until this place is swallowed by the sea.
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Tropical Storm Rosa:

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Quoting LargoFl:
THIS IS ONE TERRIBLE SITUATION UP THERE
And this is just the internet situation that's terrible... talk about tip of the iceberg...

:o(
Quoting LostTomorrows:


s that a joke? I would be helping out with relief efforts for my city and, when I wanted to do something for myself, run amok. Strangely, I still remember how to live without electricity. Unless those people are all there because it's absolutely necessary for work, then it's kind of sad, and not in an actually sad way.

That being said, reading of the extensive damage in places really sells the terrifying scope of how much damage can be wrought by hurricanes. People and communities these days tend to think they are invulnerable, and it often leads to rude wake-up calls when mother Nature comes to break down your door.
I think the walking for a charge suggests how desperate people are for information about what's happening elsewhere. I can really relate, since I ended up disconnected from the outside here for almost 24 hours during Sandy's passage. One is very much aware that the world is going on around you - but you are deaf and blind. It's quite frustrating even if you aren't an information junkie.
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well this is it for me folks..have a great night everyone..stay safe out there.................
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Quoting Civicane49:
doesnt look like anything could survive in the gulf right now huh
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Quoting BtnTx:
or GW Bush
LOL remember the dollar a gallon for gas he added on..thru the economy into a tailspin..every single thing you buy..moves by truck several times..each time that extra gets tacked onto the price
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Quoting sfranz:
Sorry I'm typing on an iPad and it keeps doing something wonky with the quoting when I try to fix a typo.
even computers are having lil troubles since the storm, i know the centers in virginia got hit like apple etc...I got google and its hard to copy a long list of words like the NHC discussion etc..hope they clear this up sometime soon
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Just fry the hell out of the things... lol

Evening all... unfortunately no plantains are frying here tonight. BUT if you are frying them, it's a good idea not to let the oil get too hot. They will swinge [get carbonized] without being done inside.

I'm still looking at the masses of damage Sandy has done. I'm still amazed at the scope of it...

Sandy really slowed down over the upper Bahamas, although she was not as strong as she got farther north that must have been kind of nerve-wracking. Is it that the folk in the Bahamas are just better prepared or that Sandy was so much stronger farther north?

(I'm guessing a little of both)
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Quoting airmet3:
In the whole scheme of things, this is almost a non issue. It would not have changed the damage or the power outages. It seems that coastal evacuations largely occurred due to the job the NWS and local media did. Most deaths were inland, due to falling trees and not due to surge related flooding sweeping folks away.I don't think anything would have changed if hurricane warnings were raised, because folks would have said "its only a cat 1".

Regardless, NOAA will review the scenario and will make the changes they feel are necessary.

Perhaps the psychologists on board can chime in.


we also have inland hurricane and tropical storm advisories...if necessary
I need a very good and clear explanation from them to put this off.

That's how I bring things to an end
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well I know..who DID get that flooding forecast right..days in advance too..........crown weather and i posted it too...
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Sorry I'm typing on an iPad and it keeps doing something wonky with the quoting when I try to fix a typo.
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372. BtnTx
Quoting whipster:
Jeeze no matter what happens EVER, it is caused by AGW. Give me a break.
or GW Bush
Member Since: October 12, 2001 Posts: 20 Comments: 890
Let me assume Climate change is occurring, ice is melting and ocean levels are rising.

Fact, I live in fl and 3 % of my homeowners insurance goes to a company called Citizens ins. This is simply the state of Fl. They own Citizens and they ONLY insure people that cannot get insurance elsewhere, (read waterfront, river, stream, beach). This ins is provided to them at about 60% of retail rate. Most (not all) of these homes are multimillion dollar homes.

The state and county have issued a one time beach refurbishment fee on everyone’s property tax in the county. They have issued this one time fee eleven times in 3 years. No we have not had one hurricane in that time. Just a few good nor’easters. They put it on the property tax so if you don’t pay you loose your property. This beach refurbishment is for the STATED purpose of protecting the beachfront property owners.

Now under my assumption that sea levels will continue to rise, when will we stop people from building on the beach on a barrier island or flood plain? (never) I can hear people now screaming about their “rights” to build there and yet me and people like me keep paying to protect their houses.

If sea levels are truly rising we are going to HAVE to change where and how we build and how we insure those buildings. We will no longer be able to maintain places directly exposed to the oceans or ocean front but below sea level. We may have been able to maintain those places in the past at quite some cost (usually born by the many for the few) but as more and more places become endangered by raising ocean levels…..
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 455
If the media wasnt calling it a hurricane when it was a hurricane, how can you solely blame the NHC for not issuing Hurricane warnings?..seems to me you should look at the media..More people watched nationwide TV and their local weather which was advertised as "Superstorm Sandy" and not Hurricane Sandy...NHC did their jobs..warnings were out there and the media provided their own coverage with scenes from Day After Tomorrow..maybe people saw that and couldn't take it seriously?..If anyone should have been calling it a hurricane, it should have been the media as most people go there for their information and not the NHC..sad but true..
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Sorry - duplicate.
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:


yeah a cat 1 combined with a noreaster, but a purely tropical cat 1 would have not done nearly as much damage as this did. If it would have made landfall in North Carolina as is were when it was approaching the N.C. coast we would have had all power back on and forgot about sandy by now.
yeah i agree on that..this was a special storm..they said it way beforehand..it was something new, even trying to come up with a new kind of name for something like this..
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There are two parts to the job: forecast and communicate. An error on either side has bad consequences.

There were two tricky issues on the communication side. The hurricane, when it was a hurricane, had a surge much more dangerous than a Cat 1 storm. Comparing it to a Nor'Easter has the risk of people thinking itvwas like storms they see every year, which this one wasn't.

I don't think it matters if it was NWS or NHC that got those two points across. The only question is we're the warnings reaching the right people at the right time in a way they could understand.

If not, then the warning system needs revision and review.


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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