Why did Hurricane Sandy take such an unusual track into New Jersey?
We're used to seeing hurricane-battered beaches and flooded cities in Florida, North Carolina, and the Gulf Coast. But to see these images from the Jersey Shore and New York City in the wake of Hurricane Sandy is a shocking experience. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in a portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much, and is too far north. How did this happen? How was a hurricane able to move from southeast to northwest at landfall, so far north, and so late in hurricane season? We expect hurricanes to move from east to west in the tropics, where the prevailing trade winds blow that direction. But the prevailing wind direction reverses at mid-latitudes, flowing predominately west-to-east, due to the spin of the Earth. Hurricanes that penetrate to about Florida's latitude usually get caught up in these westerly winds, and are whisked northeastwards, out to sea. However, the jet stream, that powerful band of upper-atmosphere west-to-east flowing air, has many dips and bulges. These troughs of low pressure and ridges of high pressure allow winds at mid-latitudes to flow more to the north or to the south. Every so often, a trough in the jet stream bends back on itself when encountering a ridge of high pressure stuck in place ahead of it. These "negatively tilted" troughs have winds that flow from southeast to northwest. It is this sort of negatively tilted trough that sucked in Sandy and allowed the hurricane to take such an unusual path into New Jersey.
Figure 1. Inlet section of Atlantic City, N.J., after Hurricane Sandy. Image credit: 6 ABC Action News.
The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 besides Sandy was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. However, the Vagabond Hurricane hit in September, when the jet stream is typically weaker and farther to the north. It is quite extraordinary that Sandy was able to hit New Jersey in late October, when the jet stream is typically stronger and farther south, making recurvature to the northeast much more likely than in September.
Figure 2. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.
The blocking ridge that steered Sandy into New Jersey
A strong ridge of high pressure parked itself over Greenland beginning on October 20, creating a "blocking ridge" that prevented the normal west-to-east flow of winds over Eastern North America. Think of the blocking ridge like a big truck parked over Greenland. Storms approaching from the west (like the fall low pressure system that moved across the U.S. from California to Pennsylvania last week) or from the south (Hurricane Sandy) were blocked from heading to the northeast. Caught in the equivalent of an atmospheric traffic jam, the two storms collided over the Northeast U.S., combined into one, and are now waiting for the truck parked over Greenland to move. The strength of the blocking ridge, as measured by the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), was quite high--about two standard deviations from average, something that occurs approximately 5% of the time. When the NAO is in a strong negative phase, we tend to have blocking ridges over Greenland.
Figure 3. Jet stream winds at a pressure of 300 mb on October 29, 2012, as Hurricane Sandy approached the coast of New Jersey. Note that the wind direction over New Jersey (black arrows) was from the southeast, due to a negatively tilted trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. caused by a strong blocking ridge of high pressure over Greenland. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
Arctic sea ice loss can cause blocking ridges
Blocking ridges occur naturally, but are uncommon over Greenland this time of year. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, blocking near the longitude of Greenland (50°W) only occurs about 2% of the time in the fall. These odds rise to about 6% in winter and spring. As I discussed in an April post, Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns, three studies published in the past year have found that the jet stream has been getting stuck in unusually strong blocking patterns in recent years. These studies found that the recent record decline in Arctic sea ice could be responsible, since this heats up the pole, altering the Equator-to-pole temperature difference, forcing the jet stream to slow down, meander, and get stuck in large loops. The 2012 Arctic sea ice melt season was extreme, with sea ice extent hitting a record lows. Could sea ice loss have contributed to the blocking ridge that steered Sandy into New Jersey? It is possible, but we will need to much more research on the subject before we make such a link, as the studies of sea ice loss on jet stream patterns are so new. The author of one of the new studies, Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers, had this say in a recent post by Andy Revkin in his Dot Earth blog: "While it’s impossible to say how this scenario might have unfolded if sea-ice had been as extensive as it was in the 1980s, the situation at hand is completely consistent with what I’d expect to see happen more often as a result of unabated warming and especially the amplification of that warming in the Arctic."
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Would it be possible to create a Galveston like infrastructure along those coastal areas?
If they can get insurance at a reasonable price, many will rebuild. I expect that insurance companies will make the cost of insurance for beachfront property unaffordable, so many homes will not be rebuilt.
Not as bad as it seems. We exceeded the 'G' storm in every instance except 1982 and 1994. The real trouble began when we tried to eclipse Isaac, lol.
You can support Portlight, the Red Cross, Salvation Army...you name it...with a couple of mouse clicks while blogging here. I fail to see your point.
I don't know about elsewhere, but in Florida -well at least my policy - the deductible is triggered as soon as the storm is named, whether it is a tropical storm or a cat 5. Which is why I said wow!
That didn't help them much....
Quality over quantity, my friends.
the problem in the mid atlantic is that they havent been hit in so long by something this extreme, but the beach has been slowly eaten away by noreasters and tropical storms over time, and they keep trying to add rocks or sand that make unprotective weak dunes, if you have ever been to a beach like rehobeth, deleware, or seaside, nj you know the ocean was already coming up under the docks and right up to the dune line or steps of houses, it really doesnt take a sandy like storm to cause this type of destruction up there, areas of N.C. Florida and the gulf can take a much larger hit than sandy and recover rather well due to that fact we frequently get hit by such storms and rebuild stronger and stronger every time. In the mid atlantic they have just been building and building with the same codes and on the same sands whithout doing much replenishing or beafing up protection at the rate of building homes and businesses. Well Monday it caught up with them. The only way to rebuild is to rebuild it 10 times stronger but theres always the chance it could happen again and maybe even stronger.
Then Shawn need to do fact checking. Interviewing a civilian about what they think might happen, along with unattributed "law enforcement sources" is not news - it's speculation, and speculation of the worst kind.
Holy ****.
Watch the video. The news reporters were talking to a civilian, and they talked to law enforcement officials to confirm what she was saying.
There are two immediate issues I see from looking at the pictures:
1. Homes were built directly on the beach
2. Many of the homes were not elevated with flow-through support structures.
The state and local governments can mandate set backs from the beach and elevation of existing or new housing. It wouldn't have taken a storm the size of Sandy to cause catastrophic destruction - it's just that Sandy's size and energy made it much worse
This aerial photo shows burned-out homes in the Breezy Point section of the Queens borough New York after a fire on Tuesday, Oct. 30, 2012. The tiny beachfront neighborhood told to evacuate before Sandy hit New York burned down as it was inundated by floodwaters, transforming a quaint corner of the Rockaways into a smoke-filled debris field. (AP Photo/Mike Groll)
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN
No, that's not what the reporter said. He stated he talked to unnamed "law enforcement officials" that agreed with the civilian. These officials had no more knowledge of how many people may or may not have persished in those homes than the civilian. I've done flood rescue before, and this kind of thing is total speculation. I've been at scenes that didn't look bad and found far more bodies than in neighborhoods that were completely underwater. Let the SAR teams do their jobs and we'll soon enough know the truth. This kind of speculation only serves to make the waiting worse for relatives and friends of people who may be missing in that area.
True....
Seems like the only solution to secure your family in such an event, is to make reservations in advance, securring the best you can your property... then get all your personal papers, and leave and drive away, staying in a motel or guesthouse in another state.... Then come back when the situation eases.... My sister left NOLA 3 days before Katrina, driving with all the family to Memphis and staying in a Holyday Inn.... Then they came back one week later....
Imagine 2,000 homes like this on fire, all at or about the same time, with 100 mph winds and temperatures of 100 degrees. That was the Oakland Hills Firestorm of 1991. As bad as this was, "Wow!" doesn't come close to describing that one.
That's one of the reasons I live in my motorhome. If things get bad, I just unhook and drive my house away. If you want to live near the beach, it's really not a bad idea.
As I said, the police also have no idea how many people are still in those homes. They shouldn't be talking to reporters about this either. We will all know how many people have been found once the SAR teams complete their work. Speculating about how many might be found serves no useful purpose, and has a lot of negative side effects.
Not everyone can afford a motorhome....
When will enough be enough?
Compared to a beach home? A motorhome is pretty cheap by comparison. Heck, compared to a lot of new cars, a motorhome a few years old and in good shape is cheap. Most motorhomes are not the $500,000 palaces on wheels many people think of when they hear the word.
I suppose if you're in the 65-85 year-old range, you will stay with the home you've paid on all your life. When elderly, it might be hard to operate a motor home - if you could afford it. The poor aren't always who you think they are....
I don't know. When Katrina hit us in the South, I remember an awful lot of posts about how we rednecks had it coming to us because (choose your reason)....There was also a lot of political posturing on both sides about what or what wasn't being done to help. It seems to be part of the human condition that some take peverse delight in the suffering of others...until it happens to them.
I'm 66, and sold my paid for home that I worked for all my life, bought my motorhome, and enjoy traveling the country. The "elderly" are not always as helpless or as poor as you think they are either. :)
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
DEPRESSION, FORMER NILAM (BOB02-2012)
5:30 AM IST November 1 2012
=============================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over northern Tamil Nadu and neighborhood moved northwestward and weakened into a depression over Rayalaseema and adjoining area of southern interior Karnataka. Depression, Former Nilam lay centered near 14.0N 77.5E, or a bout 75 km south of Anantapur. The system is likely to move west northwestwards and weaken further into a low pressure area during the next 12 hours.
My mother as an example - while in her sixties, she and a friend considered selling what they owned outright and buying a motor home. By the time my mom was 70 she had had a number of strokes and didn't really know where she lived at all. Could she have operated a motor home at that point? I'm just saying take everything under consideration. We sometimes don't take into account what will happen when we age.
https://www.citizensfla.com/about/CitizensAssessm ents.cfm
Last year citizens assessed my car ins 3% boat ins 3% home owners 3% All three are assessed against my property tax. Only because it is a state agency can the levy an assessment on the auto and boat on my POPERTY tax. This means if I don't pay it they won't cancel my insurance with allstate as I paid that. They will just take my house for not paying my property tax.
A scam a private company could never get away with.
Everyone in the state with any kind of insurance is assessed something by citizens and the amount is totally up to them (to a point)
You know what? I had never considered that before, but quite surprisingly, it appears this list comes out on top. 66 storms to the other list's 61, and 33 hurricanes relative to 28.
In terms of big storms though, the 2009 list comes out on top.
I have such a great knowledge I had to stop and do math just to figure that out. :/
But thanks for the compliment. Kinda makes me feel all warm inside. *strokes e-d**k*
True, and, if that time comes for me, I have insurance and enough money in the bank from the sale of my home to pay for my care. My motorhome, which is a 1995 Safari Trek, cost me $38,000 in 2005. It's worth about $20,000 now, but still serves as a nice home for me. The good thing about a paid for house is that you can manage the money you get from the sale, plus your SS check, and have a reasonable income to live off of each month. I will admit I was lucky selling at the top of the market, but it can still be done.
To younger people who want to live a comfortable life in retirement, one bit of advice - GET OUT OF DEBT. You really don't need all that stuff you buy with money you don't have. Learn to live debt free and you will be as close to rich as you need to be by the time you're 60.
Nothing wrong with a little laughter on your birthday. :)
Yes, it was.... got one from Galveston.... Wikipedia... Thanks
Is it raining this year?
Looks like a little bull shark.
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