Superstorm Sandy delivers a devastating blow to the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on October 30, 2012

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In a stunning spectacle of atmospheric violence, Superstorm Sandy roared ashore in New Jersey last night with sustained winds of 90 mph and a devastating storm surge that crippled coastal New Jersey and New York. Sandy's record size allowed the historic storm to bring extreme weather to over 100 million Americans, from Chicago to Maine and from Michigan to Florida. Sandy's barometric pressure at landfall was 946 mb, tying the Great Long Island Express Hurricane of 1938 as the most powerful storm ever to hit the Northeast U.S. north of Cape Hatteras, NC. New York City experienced its worst hurricane since its founding in 1624, as Sandy's 9-foot storm surge rode in on top of a high tide to bring water levels to 13.88' at The Battery, smashing the record 11.2' water level recorded during the great hurricane of 1821. Damage from Superstorm Sandy will likely be in the tens of billions, making the storm one of the five most expensive disasters in U.S. history.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Superstorm Sandy taken at 10 am EDT Tuesday, October 30, 2012. Image credit: NASA GSFC.


Figure 2. Sandy's storm surge (green line) at New York City hit 9' near 9 pm EDT, right when water levels due to high tide (blue line.) The total storm tide (red line) reached 13.88 above Mean Lower Low Water, an all-time record for NYC. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 3. Storm surge forced the Delaware River in Philadelphia to a crest of 10.62 feet at 4 a.m. EDT this morning, breaking the previous record of 10.50 feet set Apr. 17, 2011 and Nov. 25, 1950. Image credit: NOAA.

Sandy sets all-time low pressure records
Sandy's impact has been so severe over such a wide area that it is difficult to adequately document the event. I'll start with some of the major cities that set all-time low pressure records during Sandy, with the new record followed by the old record and date of occurrence (thanks go to wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt for putting this list together):

Atlantic City, NJ: 28.01"/948mb 28.37"/961mb 3/6/1932

Philadelphia, PA: 28.12"/953mb 28.43"/963mb 3/13/1993

Harrisburg, PA: 28.46"/964mb 28.62"/969mb 1/3/1913

Scranton, PA: 28.69"/971mb 28.72"/973mb 2/25/1965

Trenton, NJ: 28.31"/958mb 28.43"/963mb 3/13/1993

Baltimore, MD: 28.49"/965mb 28.68"/971mb 3/3/1932

Harrisburg, PA: 28.46"/964mb 28.62"/969mb 1/3/1913

Cities that came close to setting their all-time low pressure record:

Newark, NJ: 28.51"/965mb 28.45"/963 3/13/1993

New York, NY: 28.53"/966mb 28.38"/961mb 3/1/1914

Washington D.C. 28.63"/969mb 28.54/966mb 3/13/1993

Lynchburg, VA: 29.12"/986mb 28.84"/977mb 3/6/1932

Elkins, WV: 29.22"/989mb 28.85"/977mb 2/25/1965

Sandy's snows
Sandy's snows have clobbered the town of Davis, WV with an estimated 26 - 28" of snow. Most of the town is without power, and winds are blowing 20 - 30 mph with 40 mph gusts. Sandy brought the snowiest October day on record to both Elkins, WV (7" of snow) and Bluefield, WV (4.7".)


Video 1. Multiple trees fall during powerful gusts during Superstorm Sandy's landfall in New Jersey Monday evening (warming: foul language.)

There's so much more to say about Sandy--including how the storm may have been influenced by climate change--but I'll save this for later posts, as it's time to get something posted.

Angela Fritz has a 2:30 pm EDT post that discusses the latest on Sandy's impact and forecast.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Sandy (Biskitten)
Amazing waves at high tide and the storm is just beginning here in Seacoast NH!
Hurricane Sandy
Downed Sycamore (deltabird)
Weehawken NJ
Downed Sycamore
Davis, West Virginia - 4 PM (beaudodson)
Snow increasing in intensity.
Davis, West Virginia - 4 PM
Corn Neck Road, Block Island, RI (JudyGray)
Corn Neck Road, Block Island, RI
Harlem, NYC (ArsenalNYC)
Part of the roof of my building ripped off during Hurricane Sandy and landed on two cars across the street
Harlem, NYC

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956. hydrus
3:02 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
Long way out, but interesting...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21498
955. CaicosRetiredSailor
6:52 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting hcubed:


Well, there was this report, maybe this was who he was thinking of:

"...FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: October 26, 2012
CONTACT: Blair FitzGibbon : 202-503-6141 : blair@fitzgibbonmedia.com
Statement by Brad Johnson, campaign manager of Forecast the Facts and ClimateSilence.org:

"If the candidates won't listen to the voters demanding they break their climate silence, maybe they will listen to Mother Nature's October Surprise. We know the candidates will be asked about Hurricane Sandy, and will express their sympathy with those affected. They will rightly applaud the first responders, the compassion of neighbors, and the strength and resolve of the American people. But what their role as national leaders demands that they also do is explain that Hurricane Sandy is a true Frankenstorm, a monster created by man tampering with nature with oil, coal, and gas pollution..."




I am not saying this statement is correct... but at least you should support your position with an honest and accurate quote as seen below:
-------------

Statement on Hurricane Sandy and Climate Silence
Brad Johnson, campaign manager of Forecast the Facts and ClimateSilence.org:

"If the candidates won't listen to the voters demanding they break their climate silence, maybe they will listen to Mother Nature's October Surprise. We know the candidates will be asked about Hurricane Sandy, and will express their sympathy with those affected. They will rightly applaud the first responders, the compassion of neighbors, and the strength and resolve of the American people. But what they should also do, what their role as national leaders demands that they do, is explain why this is happening.

"Hurricane Sandy is a true Frankenstorm, a monster created by man tampering with nature. It is a scientific fact that oil, coal, and gas pollution are fueling freakish climate disasters. Barack Obama and Mitt Romney need to be honest with voters: we have to stop poisoning our weather and start saving our future."


http://forecastthefacts.org/press/releases/2012/1 0/26/statement-hurricane-sandy-and-climate-silence /
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6051
954. CaicosRetiredSailor
6:42 PM GMT on October 31, 2012


MTA photo of post flood debris in South Ferry Subway


The photo below was earlier



http://live.nydailynews.com/Event/Tracking_Hurric ane_Sandy_2?Page=38
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6051
953. hcubed
6:06 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Human activity is not "creating" heat. Human activity is enhancing the greenhouse effect which becomes more efficient at trapping heat energy in the form of longwave radiation. Otherwise, that trapped radiation would have escaped to space. Remember, energy isn't created nor destroyed.

Repeated, once again: There is no way to ever state that a particular weather event is caused by climate change. But saying that today's weather is not affected by climate change is not correct, either. I'm still not sure who TomballTXPride is referring to when he keeps claiming that scientists/bloggers/pro-AGWers/warmistas/whomever blamed Sandy on AGW/CC.


Well, there was this report, maybe this was who he was thinking of:

"...FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: October 26, 2012
CONTACT: Blair FitzGibbon : 202-503-6141 : blair@fitzgibbonmedia.com
Statement by Brad Johnson, campaign manager of Forecast the Facts and ClimateSilence.org:

“If the candidates won’t listen to the voters demanding they break their climate silence, maybe they will listen to Mother Nature’s October Surprise. We know the candidates will be asked about Hurricane Sandy, and will express their sympathy with those affected. They will rightly applaud the first responders, the compassion of neighbors, and the strength and resolve of the American people. But what their role as national leaders demands that they also do is explain that Hurricane Sandy is a true Frankenstorm, a monster created by man tampering with nature with oil, coal, and gas pollution..."
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
952. HurrikanEB
4:41 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting greenengineer:


Water level in NY Harbor is a foot higher than it was 100 years ago. Flooding was unprecedented.

Also to say that nothing is unprecedented except its size is kind of silly. That's the whole point - the size is unprecedented that far north.



I understand what KoritheMan is saying, and i agree that it is very hard to pinpoint global warming/climate change on any one event.

I also understand what he is saying when he says that the size was the only thing unprecedented... the flooding in NY could have happened with a handful of smaller storms of the same intensity had they hit under the right circumstances, and the rainfall wasn't unusual.

That being said, I think that it is interesting that the five largest Atlantic storms have all occurred in the post-1995 active period that we are in. And they have eclipsed the other largest storms by remarkable margins. Furthermore, four of the top five have been in the last 11 years.

We always hear about storms strengthening with climate change, and lasting further north, but I have never before heard anyone bring up the topic of significantly larger storms. I think that is something worth looking into over the next few seasons.

Storm Season Diameter
(mi) (km)
Sandy 2012 945 1,520
Igor 2010 920 1,480
Olga 2001 865 1,390
Lili 1996 805 1,295
Karl 2004 780 1,255

Member Since: May 2, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1340
951. PalmBeachWeather
4:33 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Who said I'm disagreeing with her. LOL
her s a he
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5897
950. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:33 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
949. bappit
4:32 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting presslord:


it's all on our WU blog....Thanks!!

Cool-a-mundo!
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
948. hydrus
4:29 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting MrMixon:
All of you people saying that the lottery is a sound financial investment are wrong.

All of you people saying puppies aren't cute are totally wrong too.

All of you people saying water isn't wet are also wrong.



OK, see how this works? I can come on here and say "all you people saying X are wrong" and I can insert whatever silly thing I want to insert for X even if nobody has actually said it. But, I think most of the adults in the room realize that doing this is intellectually dishonest.

If you're going to claim that "All the people saying X are wrong" your argument will carry more weight if you include actual quotes of people saying X.

Also, I must say the blog has disappointed me the past couple days. I'm used to the usual AGW arguments, but given the destructiveness of this storm I fully expected to see this comment section packed with current information, storm damage reports, photos, videos, radar loops, etc. Sure, some folks have been posting that kind of info, and of course I always expect a stray AGW comment here and there, but I NEVER would've predicted that such a large portion of the comments would be devoted to these arguments. So much for disasters bringing us closer together...


(Some of the pictures coming out of the Northeast look more like post-war images than post-hurricane...)
Good post. With massive devastating storms like Sandy and other similar storms affecting the globe, it was almost inevitable the GW debate would surface here on the good Dr,s blog. I posted my feelings on the subject simply to express my thoughts on posts I have read in the past that did not seem logical. We lost a house to the 1992 December Nor,Easter on the New Jersey Coast, and in no way would diminish the seriousness of situation that millions of folks are experiencing. I now put the GW topic to rest until a later date.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21498
947. nyhurhunter
4:28 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting mikatnight:
I'm beginning to think republikins are in a permanent pissed-off state. From what I gather they hate most of the scientific community, government, stem cell research, women's rights, gay rights, voting rights, immigrants, education, the arts & humanities, PBS, Europe, every major news station (except FOX, which is more of a self-described propaganda station), Hollywood, and any comedian not named Foxworthy or Miller.

Dude, you are the hate monger,and im independant. This is exactly what is wrong with society, people generalize everyone into 2 groups. Not everyone fits in your mold bud. You have absolutely no idead what you are talking about, i am sick of people like you. As for the rest of this garbage being thrown out there about AGW and Sandy, The climate is changing, it has always been changing since it began, and will continue to change long after we die off. How much we have contributed to that change is not known because we only have reliable records going back 30-100 years, which is such a small blip in the timeline of earth you wouldnt even be able to see it. Would it help if we take care of our planet, probably, should we spend all our time and money on this when our economy is tanking, no. We should we be responsible stwards of our planet, absolutely. But we are hooked on oil, and will be for the foreseable future, and almost everyone has a car that creates CO2, even the prius brigade is creating CO2 by just breathing, are you gonna stop breathing too?
Member Since: July 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
946. aprinz1979
4:27 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
No. The climate is changing; warming is both part of that change, and driver for other facets of it. But not all climate changes are due to warming, nor is warming the only sign of change.


Hey Nea,

Could I borrow your Al Gore Costume to go trick or treating tonight?

Regards,
Member Since: October 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
945. presslord
4:27 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting bappit:

I'm kind of Sandy'd out. It is going to be a long slog before the damage is repaired. Any word on what Portlight is up to?


it's all on our WU blog....Thanks!!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
944. bappit
4:23 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting MrMixon:
So much for disasters bringing us closer together...



I'm kind of Sandy'd out. It is going to be a long slog before the damage is repaired. Any word on what Portlight is up to?
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
943. ScottLincoln
4:22 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting ARiot:
The best way to understand it is that a significant amount of energy (heat) is created by human activity related to the release of stored solar energy (in the form of CO2 and other gasses).


Human activity is not "creating" heat. Human activity is enhancing the greenhouse effect which becomes more efficient at trapping heat energy in the form of longwave radiation. Otherwise, that trapped radiation would have escaped to space. Remember, energy isn't created nor destroyed.
Quoting ARiot:

Whoever posted that blaming AGW for Sandy is as silly as denial of AGW was right on point. We may never fully understand how much of Sandy's energy was related to anthropogenic forces.

Repeated, once again: There is no way to ever state that a particular weather event is caused by climate change. But saying that today's weather is not affected by climate change is not correct, either. I'm still not sure who TomballTXPride is referring to when he keeps claiming that scientists/bloggers/pro-AGWers/warmistas/whomever blamed Sandy on AGW/CC.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3216
942. Opensheart
4:18 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
It use to be that the jet stream curved with slight bows north or south. This meant the jet stream could be bending slightly south-east or slightly north-east. But it was aways flowing from west to east.

But now adays the jet stream is making these huge horseshoe shaped loops. Where it can loop all the way around and actually be flowing north-west.

Which is what happened to sandy just before landfall. How else could a hurricane spead up to 30+ MPH in a north-west to west-north-west direction? Hurricanes only move that fast when they are caught by the jet stream. And since when does the jet stream flow backwards?

As the arctic warms, the temperature difference between the artic and here gets to be less. Thus allowing the jet stream to wander north and south in strange ways.

In a related note: The refreezing of the arctic sea ice has been slowing down in the past few days. Oct may end with another record low ice extent for this time of year.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
Member Since: July 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
941. SFLWeatherman
4:15 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
135HR 12Z
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4714
940. ScottLincoln
4:14 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting WXMichael:
I agree. I think the climate has always been changing. The pace is what needs to be focused on.

Depending on the definition, one could probably say that climate is "always changing." But the rate of change, the type of changes, and the magnitude of the changes differ. Also, without the context of a timescale, the statement "always changing" becomes virtually meaningless hyperbole. What is the definition of "change?" Any aspect of climate changed by any miniscule amount? Temperature changed by more than 0.1C? The average Arctic ice cover changed by more than 100,000sq mi?
Without those kinds of objective, quantifiable definitions, it means nothing scientifically.
Quoting WXMichael:

I found myself wondering what AGW stands for: A_______ Global Warming? And what is the difference between that and Climate Change? Thanks!

AGW = anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming

Climate change is a broad, far reaching term that includes all sorts of change from temperature to precipitation to sea surface temperatures to ice volume to jet stream positions, as averaged over a period of at least a couple decades.

Global warming generally refers to the measured increase in near-surface, lower troposphere temperature observed by land-based stations, buoys and other ocean measurements, weather balloons, and satellite-derived estimates. This definition many times includes warming of the oceans and loss of land/sea ice.

Thus, global warming is a type of climate change, but isn't the only climate change we've observed in recent decades. In many applications, however, the terms are used interchangeably, even if not 100% correct to do so.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3216
939. bappit
4:13 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting luvtogolf:


God did not grant me with a very high IQ. I take offense to being called ignorant. Maybe you should go take a class on how to be a better person.

Odd. Nea did not refer to you personally. Why do you take offense to his post?
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
938. sunlinepr
4:13 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9825
937. sunlinepr
4:12 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9825
936. RTSplayer
4:11 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting atris:


Actually not quite ... Climate Change covers any type of change in climate ..whereas Gobal warming is just about the earth warming...


Correct, but to further clarify:

Global Warming refers to the over all average warming on a planetary scale, hence the name. Which means that the planetary average temperature is increasing, and also means, for example, that the total amount of ice is decreasing.

Localized contradictions to the mean global trend do not undermine Global Warming, nor the AGW theory.


"Climate Change" in general just means any significant shift in climate, whether hotter, colder, wetter, drier, whatever.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
935. SherwoodSpirit
4:11 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting mistermizu:
BBC weather blooper: watch this version of the Sandy storm...Link


That's great. hahaha
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 397
934. MrMixon
4:11 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
All of you people saying that the lottery is a sound financial investment are wrong.

All of you people saying puppies aren't cute are totally wrong too.

All of you people saying water isn't wet are also wrong.



OK, see how this works? I can come on here and say "all you people saying X are wrong" and I can insert whatever silly thing I want to insert for X even if nobody has actually said it. But, I think most of the adults in the room realize that doing this is intellectually dishonest.

If you're going to claim that "All the people saying X are wrong" your argument will carry more weight if you include actual quotes of people saying X.

Also, I must say the blog has disappointed me the past couple days. I'm used to the usual AGW arguments, but given the destructiveness of this storm I fully expected to see this comment section packed with current information, storm damage reports, photos, videos, radar loops, etc. Sure, some folks have been posting that kind of info, and of course I always expect a stray AGW comment here and there, but I NEVER would've predicted that such a large portion of the comments would be devoted to these arguments. So much for disasters bringing us closer together...


(Some of the pictures coming out of the Northeast look more like post-war images than post-hurricane...)
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
933. bappit
4:05 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I get what you are saying. However, with regards to the blocking pattern - what about the previous high number of storms that all went out to sea. Isn't it more about timing?

I'm not going to discuss Sandy. If you want to argue with a parenthetical remark, that's your business.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
932. Some1Has2BtheRookie
4:04 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting mistermizu:
BBC weather blooper: watch this version of the Sandy storm...Link


The science is correct. What the BBC needs is someone that knows how to get the graphics correct. Perhaps the graphics designer is from "down under"? None of "our Aussies" would make that mistake, most assuredly.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4749
931. StormPro
4:03 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
I wonder just how many people deny that the Earth is warming because they simply like to argue. One would think that folks who do make comments that global warming doesnt exist would have the I.Q. to realize that it is. They should argue how much humans may or may not be affecting the Earths climate, not whether or not that warming is happening as of now.


I agree...I'm quite sure we have contributed...as have animal flatulance, volcanoes and politicians lol
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 606
927. SeALWx
4:00 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting biff4ugo:
Are any ITCZ disturbances moving north over warm water? Do waves spin off South America some times that turn into tropical storms?
edit.
There are people that still say the sea level isn't rising. Apart from glacial rebound areas like Alaska, places like say Florida, have measured sea level rise for over a century and a half. The debate there is over rate as well, not its existence or direction. But people will still say, I don't believe it.

P.S. I heard 20 billion in damage, 30 billion in business losses. And with reconstruction and its new job creation...a wash on the overall economy.

The Broken Window does not make money growth...
Net Loss, baby! Money don't grow on trees.
Member Since: April 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 196
926. ARiot
3:58 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
The best way to understand it is that a significant amount of energy (heat) is created by human activity related to the release of stored solar energy (in the form of CO2 and other gasses).

This energy (heat) has a measurable impact on a climate that would otherwise be mind-numbingly stable when viewed by a human over their life span. We are a climate forcer. We loaded the climate dice.

Other anthropogenic activity also has impacts on the climate, such as farming, re-routing rivers, building dams, etc. etc. etc. but those forces are less significant in the aggregate, at least based on what we know right now.

Whoever posted that blaming AGW for Sandy is as silly as denial of AGW was right on point. We may never fully understand how much of Sandy's energy was related to anthropogenic forces.
Member Since: June 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 366
925. bappit
3:56 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

The odds of these extreme events are only increasing.

You know that you just agreed with Nea by saying that?
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
924. bappit
3:55 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Once again, those attributing AGW/CC as the sole cause of Sandy are intentionally and repetitively making unscientific judgements. That line of thinking is frivolous, baseless, and has no merit in anything.

I entered your post into the jabberwacky.com chat bot and it replied:

"It's too late to correct it, when you've once said a thing, that fixes it, and you must take the consequences."
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
923. bappit
3:48 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting txag91met:


The atmosphere had perfect conditions for Sandy. The gulf stream was 1-2F warmer than normal. However, the water temps were only near 80F right at the stream, which is barely enough to support a hurricane. So saying that Sandy is a direct result of GW is not correct.



No, you'd have to go through a long recitation of the toe bone is connected to the foot bone, the foot bone is connected to the ankle bone, the ankle bone is connected to the leg bone, the leg bone is connected to the knee bone, the knee bone is connected to the thigh bone, and so on, and so on.

When you get right down to it, it is not worth the breath to do al that. Whether someone can recite it all or not won't change the amount of CO2 we are adding to the atmosphere or the effects it is having.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
922. RainyDaisy
3:46 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting WXMichael:


for whatever reason, i got paranoid to click on a pdf link. lol It's so easy for someone to come on here and post a link to a malware or a trojan infected file and ba-zingo!

Sorry, that was the InfoSec coming out in me.


It pays to be careful, but I am a straight shooter. Go to the legit site rainydaisy.minus.com to view this file and many others like it.
Member Since: August 30, 2012 Posts: 21 Comments: 15
921. bappit
3:42 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting txag91met:

But even if the planet warms some, it doesn't mean that there will be more severe events.

LOL, sorry. The extra energy from more moisture in the atmosphere is one cause of more severe events.

Another cause is the smaller temperature difference between poles and equator leading to a slower jet stream which leads to a more meandering jet stream which causes more blocking patterns which can lead to more persistent drought or rain. With blocking patterns we can expect greater heat where upper level highs set up and remain or greater cold where troughs set up and remain. (Hmmmm, Sandy was kept from going out to sea by a blocking pattern.)

So, actually, emphatically yes. The planet has in fact already warmed some and we should expect more severe events because of that warming. More warming is expected because CO2 is being added to the atmosphere constantly.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
920. WXMichael
3:40 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting RainyDaisy:




See blog entry for animation.


for whatever reason, i got paranoid to click on a pdf link. lol It's so easy for someone to come on here and post a link to a malware or a trojan infected file and ba-zingo!

Sorry, that was the InfoSec coming out in me.
Member Since: January 2, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
919. iahishome
3:39 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
thats a good point, and dont forget folks..the continents ARE moving, which is why we get the earthquakes, north america IS moving towards europe etc


Oh No... part of the "Plate Tectonic Gang". Since you believe faeries are magically moving the giant continents, what else do you believe?

I suppose you'll tell us that the earth rotates around the sun too. And that people have flown across a quarter of a million miles to the moon. If it's even that far, as I have no way of knowing.

(/sarcasm)

I would agree that this seems like an odd place to be if you don't "believe" in AGW.

On another note, I was looking for a video released by NASA or NOAA showing the average temperature over the last 120 or so years of the instrument record, and I couldn't find it.

I wanted to say, that it wasn't the fact that the average temperatures were going up that made me nervous.

What makes me nervous is that the standard deviation (sigma) is going up. For those that understand statistics, you'll know that 99.99% of everything that happens is between plus and minus 5 sigma of the average. As sigma increases, all kinds of rare events become common events, and things that have never happened before start to become rare.

Since I can't find the graph that clearly shows my point, here's a similar one:

Link
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 501
918. icmoore
3:38 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Coast Guard Continues Search For Missing Bounty Captain
ST. PETERSBURG --
A Clearwater Coast Guard crew is part of the search team looking for the captain of the HMS Bounty.

The captain, Robin Walbridge, is from St. Petersburg.

Walbridge has been missing since Monday, when the Bounty sank after being caught in rough wind and waves off the coast of North Carolina caused by Hurricane Sandy.

Fourteen crew members were rescued. One person died, and Walbridge is missing.

"As a C-130 pilot, if we're up there trying to search for a victim in the water, we're looking for any signs of distress, whether it be a flare debris in the water, rafts,(etc.)," said Lt. Drew Sonetirot with the USCG. "We're using equipment like radar to be able to scan the waters."

Coast Guard officials said the crew members were wearing survival suits.

The HMS Bounty was on its way to St. Petersburg and was due to arrive at the Pier on Nov. 10.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
917. FunnelVortex
3:38 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting Progster:




A slowing rossby wave will result in longer persistence of large areas of low shear..under ridges. What does that imply for tropical development...food for thought.


Thats what I said.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
916. RainyDaisy
3:31 PM GMT on October 31, 2012

MercForHire:
Have a question which I SHOULD know the answer to, but don't.

Weather just showed the Jet Stream making a perfect half-circle around Sandy's rear-end (That would be her bottom :) ). So did Sandy PULL the Jet Stream into that arc, or did Sandy slip into an arc which was already there, in effect pulling HER in?




See blog entry for animation.
Member Since: August 30, 2012 Posts: 21 Comments: 15
915. Progster
3:24 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Ugh, the warmists are all over this...


Quoting ScottLincoln:


Research has already suggested the opposite, and shown evidence that it's not just hypothetical or predicted, it may already be happening.
Research has shown that the trough/ridge pattern of the jet stream is amplifying, which slows down larger-scale weather patterns. This means more time in a heat wave favorable pattern, more time in a cold spell favorable pattern, more time in a heavy rain favorable pattern, and so forth.


A slowing rossby wave will result in longer persistence of large areas of low shear..under ridges. What does that imply for tropical development...food for thought.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
914. mikatnight
3:20 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
oh! I got the 911 spot! Do I win a prize or something?

Free whistle?
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
912. biff4ugo
3:18 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Are any ITCZ disturbances moving north over warm water? Do waves spin off South America some times that turn into tropical storms?
edit.
There are people that still say the sea level isn't rising. Apart from glacial rebound areas like Alaska, places like say Florida, have measured sea level rise for over a century and a half. The debate there is over rate as well, not its existence or direction. But people will still say, I don't believe it.

P.S. I heard 20 billion in damage, 30 billion in business losses. And with reconstruction and its new job creation...a wash on the overall economy.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 1588
911. mikatnight
3:17 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
No. The climate is changing; warming is both part of that change, and driver for other facets of it. But not all climate changes are due to warming, nor is warming the only sign of change.
Quoting atris:


Actually not quite ... Climate Change covers any type of change in climate ..whereas Gobal warming is just about the earth warming...


Ok, I know you guys are technically right, but for the most part, I think when people refer to one, they essentially mean the other.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
910. CybrTeddy
3:17 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
FoxNews is now reporting 50 billion in combined economic and damage costs is that accurate


It's very possible it could be 50 billion.

The damage from Hurricane Sandy is absolutely insane, and rising.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24253
907. HopquickSteve
3:14 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
I don't think anyone bothered to read past my first line. :p

I was talking about greenhouse gases increasing our sensitivity to input changes, which is the whole point of AGW, right?

Sigh...
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
906. atris
3:14 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
Quoting mikatnight:
Climate Change & Global Warming = same thing



Actually not quite ... Climate Change covers any type of change in climate ..whereas Gobal warming is just about the earth warming...
Member Since: September 9, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 56

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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