Superstorm Sandy delivers a devastating blow to the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:23 PM GMT on October 30, 2012

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In a stunning spectacle of atmospheric violence, Superstorm Sandy roared ashore in New Jersey last night with sustained winds of 90 mph and a devastating storm surge that crippled coastal New Jersey and New York. Sandy's record size allowed the historic storm to bring extreme weather to over 100 million Americans, from Chicago to Maine and from Michigan to Florida. Sandy's barometric pressure at landfall was 946 mb, tying the Great Long Island Express Hurricane of 1938 as the most powerful storm ever to hit the Northeast U.S. north of Cape Hatteras, NC. New York City experienced its worst hurricane since its founding in 1624, as Sandy's 9-foot storm surge rode in on top of a high tide to bring water levels to 13.88' at The Battery, smashing the record 11.2' water level recorded during the great hurricane of 1821. Damage from Superstorm Sandy will likely be in the tens of billions, making the storm one of the five most expensive disasters in U.S. history.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Superstorm Sandy taken at 10 am EDT Tuesday, October 30, 2012. Image credit: NASA GSFC.


Figure 2. Sandy's storm surge (green line) at New York City hit 9' near 9 pm EDT, right when water levels due to high tide (blue line.) The total storm tide (red line) reached 13.88 above Mean Lower Low Water, an all-time record for NYC. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 3. Storm surge forced the Delaware River in Philadelphia to a crest of 10.62 feet at 4 a.m. EDT this morning, breaking the previous record of 10.50 feet set Apr. 17, 2011 and Nov. 25, 1950. Image credit: NOAA.

Sandy sets all-time low pressure records
Sandy's impact has been so severe over such a wide area that it is difficult to adequately document the event. I'll start with some of the major cities that set all-time low pressure records during Sandy, with the new record followed by the old record and date of occurrence (thanks go to wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt for putting this list together):

Atlantic City, NJ: 28.01"/948mb 28.37"/961mb 3/6/1932

Philadelphia, PA: 28.12"/953mb 28.43"/963mb 3/13/1993

Harrisburg, PA: 28.46"/964mb 28.62"/969mb 1/3/1913

Scranton, PA: 28.69"/971mb 28.72"/973mb 2/25/1965

Trenton, NJ: 28.31"/958mb 28.43"/963mb 3/13/1993

Baltimore, MD: 28.49"/965mb 28.68"/971mb 3/3/1932

Harrisburg, PA: 28.46"/964mb 28.62"/969mb 1/3/1913

Cities that came close to setting their all-time low pressure record:

Newark, NJ: 28.51"/965mb 28.45"/963 3/13/1993

New York, NY: 28.53"/966mb 28.38"/961mb 3/1/1914

Washington D.C. 28.63"/969mb 28.54/966mb 3/13/1993

Lynchburg, VA: 29.12"/986mb 28.84"/977mb 3/6/1932

Elkins, WV: 29.22"/989mb 28.85"/977mb 2/25/1965

Sandy's snows
Sandy's snows have clobbered the town of Davis, WV with an estimated 26 - 28" of snow. Most of the town is without power, and winds are blowing 20 - 30 mph with 40 mph gusts. Sandy brought the snowiest October day on record to both Elkins, WV (7" of snow) and Bluefield, WV (4.7".)


Video 1. Multiple trees fall during powerful gusts during Superstorm Sandy's landfall in New Jersey Monday evening (warming: foul language.)

There's so much more to say about Sandy--including how the storm may have been influenced by climate change--but I'll save this for later posts, as it's time to get something posted.

Angela Fritz has a 2:30 pm EDT post that discusses the latest on Sandy's impact and forecast.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Sandy (Biskitten)
Amazing waves at high tide and the storm is just beginning here in Seacoast NH!
Hurricane Sandy
Downed Sycamore (deltabird)
Weehawken NJ
Downed Sycamore
Davis, West Virginia - 4 PM (beaudodson)
Snow increasing in intensity.
Davis, West Virginia - 4 PM
Corn Neck Road, Block Island, RI (JudyGray)
Corn Neck Road, Block Island, RI
Harlem, NYC (ArsenalNYC)
Part of the roof of my building ripped off during Hurricane Sandy and landed on two cars across the street
Harlem, NYC

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Hey all! I wrote the Long Island power company to find out when they think that power will be back up and running in most neighborhoods and they told me a minimum of 10 days. If it takes that long for them to fix the power, then do you think most of the houses have hurricane damage? Thanks all!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting imipak:
A bit of good news -- the 20 fishermen stranded on Portsmouth Island made it!
http://www.witn.com/home/headlines/Stranded-Fishe rmen-Waiting-On-Ferry-176344431.html

Have to admit I'm surprised. Must have been quite a night...


Thanks, very good news indeed!
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554. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
2:30 AM IST October 31 2012
=========================================

Cyclone Warning For North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

Orange Message


At 21:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam remained practically stationary and lays centered near 10.0N 82.0E or 400 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 180 km north northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to move north northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore near Chennai between 12:00 PM UTC, October 31st.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of Nalim is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection lies over Sri Lanka, Gulf of Mannar, Palk Strait, Tamil Nadu, adjoining Rayalseema, southwest adjoining west central Bay of Bengal between 7.5N to 13.5N west of 84.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots gusting up to 50 knots. The central pressure of Nalim is estimated at around 996 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the cyclone.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is >80 kj/cm2 around the system center. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. An anticyclonic circulation lies over west central Bay of Bengal (northeast of system center). The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15º n. The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity remained same during past six hours and the vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is 5-10 knots around system center. 24 hours wind shear tendency shows decreasing trend of the order of 10 knots over west central Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
9 HRS: 11.5N 80.8E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 13.0N 79.8E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
39 HRS: 15.3N 78.3E - Low Pressure Area
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Quoting stormchaser19:






The map shows the 10-year average (2000–2009) global mean temperature anomaly relative to the 1951–1980 mean. The largest temperature increases are in the Arctic and the Antarctic Peninsula.



Global-average Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies


Well i don't want say nothing, the images speak for themselves!!!


You're right. They do show a good short term trend. Curious though that during the hight of the industrial revolution around the turn of the century, when there was massive air pollution, even greater than today, the temps were lower... As they say.. Just sayin.
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A bit of good news -- the 20 fishermen stranded on Portsmouth Island made it!
http://www.witn.com/home/headlines/Stranded-Fishe rmen-Waiting-On-Ferry-176344431.html

Have to admit I'm surprised. Must have been quite a night...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



you sould no where the whit house is its in DC and am this wounder if there been any damg too the whit house or if evere thing made it out ok


wow, that one gave me a headache trying to read it. lol ;)
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550. NJ2S
Quoting Articuno:

Looks photoshopped O_o

they showed this picture on TWC
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In Other Non-Weather Related News:
Disney Buys Lucasfilm; Eyes Release Of 'Star Wars: Episode 7' For 2015

Link
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Scientists reject Sandy/Climate Link



October 30 04:46 PM

by Joe D'Aleo

Was goping to do this myself, but Marc Morano beat me to the punch. Ryan gets a few mentions.

Scientists reject Sandy/Climate Link -- Warmists Go Full 'Tabloid Climatology' & Claim Sandy Speaks! -- Round Up of Hurricane Sandy Reactions

Climate Depot's Marc Morano: 'These new 'Tabloid Climatology' claims by activists attempting to link any weather event to man-made global warming is disgusting. The 'new normal' for climate activists is their ever shifting claims as they morph the entire AGW argument to focus on extreme weather. They are exploiting any weather event to promote their religious like cause and a storm like Sandy is shamelessly used to gin up fear'

Tuesday, October 30, 2012By Marc Morano – Climate Depot


For continuous updates on Hurricane articles see here.

NOAA's Martin Hoerling rejects 'Frankenstorm' climate link: 'This is not some spell conjured upon us by great external forces....unless you believe in the monster flicks of Universal Studios fame!' -- Meteorologist Hoerling of NOAA: 'The immediate cause is most likely little more than the coincidental alignment of a tropical storm with an extratropical storm. Both frequent W. Atlantic in Oct....nothing unusual with that'

Martin Hoerling of NOAA on Sandy: 'As to underlying causes, neither the frequency of tropical or extratropical cyclones over N. Atlantic are projected to appreciably change due to climate change' -- U.S. Govt Scientist Hoerling: 'Nor have there been indications of a change in their statistical behavior over this region in recent decades'

Frankenscience: 'Sandy doesn't tell us anything about climate change' -- Prof. Pielke Jr.: 'We've done long-term trends with respect to hurricane damage in the United States, and it's very safe to say that regardless of how [Sandy] plays out, there's a century-long time series with no trend in it — and that's in damage, the number of landfalls, or the intensity of storms at landfall. So, if you are looking for signals of long-term climate change, focusing in on any one storm is the wrong way to go about it to begin with'

Sandy caused by global warming? 'The science of climate change & hurricanes does not support this conclusion' -- It's 'just not supported by science at this time' -- Houston Chronicle's Science guy Eric Berger: '...it is a big stretch to go from there to blaming Sandy on climate change. It's a stretch that is just not supported by science at this time'

Climatologist Dr. Patrick Michaels on Sandy: 'It's also consistent with a planet with colder temperatures as well as one with warmer ones' -- Michaels: 'More important, events like this are inevitable on a planet that has an ocean with the geography of the Atlantic (meaning a Gulf Stream-like feature), a large north-south continent on its western margin without a transverse mountain range to inhibit the merger of tropical warmth with polar cold, and four seasons in the temperate latitudes'

German Meteorological Expert Says: 'No Evidence Showing Link Between Storms And Global Warming' -- Meteorologist Dr. Karsten Brandt: 'Brandt said that by looking back at the global data available over the last decades, there's 'no indication or evidence showing there's been an increase in storm activity. The data don't show it.' He added: 'Luckily we don't need to worry much about increasing storms in the future'

Prof. Roger Pielke Jr.: 'Remarkably, the U.S. is currently experiencing the longest-ever recorded period with no strikes of a Category 3 or stronger hurricane'

Hurricane Expert Chris Landsea: Any connection between AGW & hurricanes is 'almost certainly undetectable' -- '...and that this view is not particularly controversial among tropical cyclone climatologists. He concluded that hurricanes should not be the 'poster' representing a human influence on climate...Chris responded that asserting such a connection can be easily shown to be incorrect and thus risks some of the trust that the public has in scientists to play things straight'

Prof. Judith Curry on Sandy: 'Kevin Trenberth frequently says that global warming is affecting all of weather' -- Curry: 'Trenberth s probably right, but apart from the relative magnitude of the effect, this begs the question as to whether the effect is good or bad; arguably in terms of Atlantic hurricanes, the warming is resulting in fewer U.S. landfalls'

Talking Hurricane! Sandy Speaks: 'I am part of new normal' -- Warmists claim Sandy says: 'All U can be sure of is that the climate of past 20 & more centuries is gone'

Climate Depot Response: 'You can be sure that the 'Tabloid Climatologists' will pervert science and try to claim Sandy as some sort of 'proof' of man-made global warming. The 'new normal' for climate activists is their ever shifting claims as they morph the entire AGW argument to focus on extreme weather.'

Bad weather shuts down climatology vigil -- Sandy disrupts climate vigil in Boston: 'A storm many environmentalists see as linked to climate change has forced the end of a climate vigil in Boston'

Sandy called a 'climate twister'

Huh? Writing checks causes hurricanes! Warmist Bill McKibben: 'Chevron made largest political contribution ever last week, NYC swamped by largest storm this week. Pretty much a straight line, no?'

Climate Depot Response: 'McKibben and other warmists are practicing a form of witchcraft. They are attempting to convince the public that check writing, SUVs and home energy use are causing bad weather. They are exploiting any weather event to promote their religious like cause and a storm like Sandy is shamelessly used to gin up fear.'

Gore blames carbon dioxide for Sandy: 'Dirty energy makes dirty weather' -- Gore's Statement on Hurricane Sandy: 'Hurricane Sandy is a disturbing sign of things to come. We must heed this warning and act quickly to solve the climate crisis. Dirty energy makes dirty weather'

Warmists Bill McKibben & Joe Romm schlepping for Tabloid Climatology interviews: 'Even in midst of hurricanes, these people don't give up trying to tie weather to climate. It's shameless desperation'

'Blaming Sandy on greedy & industrious is just as mad as blaming it on gays' -- 'It's about doing that very Medieval thing of finding someone or something to blame for scary natural occurrences' -- Brendan O'Neill in UK Telegraph: 'After every natural disaster that occurs these days, we do two things. First, we guffaw or shake our heads in stern disapproval at those religious freaks who blame said disaster on mankind's sin. And second, we nod in vigorous agreement with those eco-experts who blame said disaster on man-made climate change'

Time Mag's Bryan Walsh: 'Sandy kills at least 16 people in the U.S. so far. For comparison, 117 Americans killed every day in cars' -- Update: Sandy's U.S. Death Toll Climbs To Over 30

Prof. Pielke Jr. on damage estimates: 'The current estimates of $20 billion would place Sandy at #17 all time out of 242 loss-producing storms 1900 to present (in the top 10%)' -- 'If the damage gets to $30 billion it would crack the top 10 and (top 5%). Right now it seems unlikely that Sandy will climb any higher on the table'

Meghan McCain (daughter of Sen. McCain) to GOP after Sandy: Do you still doubt climate change? '“So are we still going to go with climate change not being real fellow republicans?'

Climate Depot Response to Meghan McCain: 'Yes, we are still disputing man-made climate fears despite your inane tweets'

The Hill Newspaper: A '2012 study by UN's IPCC on extreme weather & climate change...finds that researchers currently have 'low confidence' in tying cyclone activity in recent decades to climate change'

Meteorologist Ryan Maue: 'Meghan McCain never demonstrated acumen necessary to understand hurricane/climate science. Nor did her dad'

Warmist Chris Mooney: 'Did Climate Change Supersize Hurricane Sandy?' -- 'This will be perceived as a climate-change-related event by much of the public' -- Mooney: 'Weird, extreme weather makes people worry, makes them think the world is changing. They aren't wrong about that'

Climate Depot Response: 'The public is much more intelligent than Mooney believes. Since ancient times, mankind has always worried about extreme weather. These new 'Tabloid Climatology' claims by climate activists attempting to link any weather event to man-made global warming is disgusting'

A Modest Hurricane Proposal for Honoring Climate Change Deniers -- 'Because the odds of extreme weather conditions have increased due to man-made climate change' -- 'The explosion of climate-change deniers has given us a wealth of names to choose from. No more Dorians and Humbertos! Bring on Hurricane Lungren and Tropical Storm Milloy'

'The New Normal – Everything Is The Worst Ever': 'The gubermint tells us Irene, Isaac & Sandy are the worst storms ever. The 2012 drought was worst ever. 2012 is the hottest year ever' -- 'These claims are all completely true, assuming that time began two years ago and you have the IQ of a turnip'

Good news for warmists?: Some people in the New York area face 168 straight involuntary Earth Hours -- Sandy leaves 'Millions Without Power Across Tri-State Area'

Climate Depot Background information:

HURRICANES/TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY

Teetering near historic lows:

'A new research study shows that overall global tropical cyclone activity has decreased to historically low levels during the past 5 years'

New paper finds global cyclones have reached a historical low: Geophysical Research Letters: 'Since 2006, global tropical cyclone ACE (cyclone energy) has decreased dramatically...' '...to the lowest levels since the late 1970s. Additionally, the global frequency of tropical cyclones has reached a historical low'

World Meteorological Organization study: 'We cannot at this time conclusively identify anthropogenic signals in past tropical cyclone data' – 'Landfalling tropical storm and hurricane activity in the US shows no long-term increase'

U.S. sees 2,232nd consecutive days without being hit by major hurricane – 'shatters' previous streak set in 1906 – Prof. Pielke Jr.: 'Since there won't be any intense hurricanes before next summer, the record will be shattered, with the days between intense hurricane landfalls likely to exceed 2,500 days'

Hurricanes Becoming Much Less Frequent In Florida: 'By June,2012 it will have been almost 7 years without a hurricane strike in Florida -the longest period on record' - 'Since 1950,hurricane strikes in Florida have been coming progressively further apart'

When it comes to hurricanes, climate change effects may be 'a wash' - 'A new report on extreme weather from UN IPCC, released last month, suggests that for hurricanes at least, the effects of global warming remain uncertain and likely so incremental that it might be difficult to even measure them' ... That's kind of a wash in my book,' said Chris Landsea'

The Decline In Major Hurricanes: 'The most active period for major hurricanes in the US was 1931-1960' -- 'The frequency of major hurricanes is now about half what it was 60 years ago. The most intense hurricane to ever hit the US occurred in 1935'

Hurricane Facts: 'According to NOAA, they have been on decline in US since the beginning of records in 19th century. The worst decade for major (category 3,4,5) hurricanes was 1940s' -- 'There has only been one US hurricane strike in last 1,130 days. 7,000 days have passed since a cat 5 hit US. In 1886, US was hit by 7 hurricanes...It has been over 6 years since a major one hit US. Deadliest hurricane to hit US happened in 1900. Florida hurricanes are in sharp decline. Florida has averaged nearly one per year since 1850. It has been over 6 years since Fla. was hit – the longest hurricane free period in that state.'

New Tropical Cyclone Research From China Reveals Major IPCC Prediction Fail

Third Quietest Hurricane Period On Record In The US: 'US hurricane strikes have been on the decline since NOAA started measuring them before the Civil War' -- 'Over the last six years, there have been officially six hurricane strikes in the US, the third quietest period on record. Six out of the seven quietest periods have been since 1975'

NOAA : 'No trend toward more frequent or stronger hurricanes': 'Links these cycles of busy & quiet hurricane period in 20th Century to natural changes in Atlantic Ocean temps'








The map shows the 10-year average (2000–2009) global mean temperature anomaly relative to the 1951–1980 mean. The largest temperature increases are in the Arctic and the Antarctic Peninsula.



Global-average Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies


Well i don't want say nothing, the images speak for themselves!!!
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Apparently just for kicks and attention, a fellow--@ComfortablySmug--spent much of last evening manufacturing rumors on Twitter (such as the one about the NY Stock Exchange being under three feet of water). He was outed today--he's an NYC-based hedge-fund analyst who also manages Republican Christopher R. Wight's campaign for the House of Representatives--and is now being rightly pilloried on the internet. Sort of a very pathetic, very high-visibility troll, in other words.


What's really scary is that, in addition to being a real slimeball liar, he had people listening to him like he was a journalist. From the linked story:

Even without a verified identity, Comfortably Smug built an impressive list of over 6,000 followers, some of whom work for outlets like Reuters, NPR, and The Daily Beast.

This is how we're getting news now - from anonymous liars who make things up, especially if it might help their hedge fund or candidate. I realize that getting the "BREAKING" news is all important now, but having reporters from Reuters and NPR picking up this guy's lies and broadcasting them as truth...I don't know what else to say, except maybe turning off your Twitter account isn't a bad idea.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17453
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Climate Change and Sandy talk coming up on MSNBC's Hardball. (Rerun from 5:00 p.m. broadcast)


Ugghhh... Thanks for the warning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Climate Change and Sandy talk coming up on MSNBC's Hardball. (Rerun from 5:00 p.m. broadcast)
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Thanks sar2401 - I am so amateur that I don't know how to post you properly - but thanks for your support on my comment. I'm one of those folks who rely on Wunderblog as an amateur - but not all of us are tin-hat HAARP devotees; just trying to find out what's happening, trying to reckon with a learning curve of scientific diagrams, but evading the crazy MSM weather/sensational news.
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DC and MD are fine, just some trees down and power out.
Unfortunately 1 fatality, though. Someone was killed when a tree came through the roof down in Pasadena, MD.

Annapolis and the Inner Harbor of Baltimore still seeing some flooding though, with high tide coming and the South winds piling everything up.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




oh said I was being mean


He said I was being mean - or at least I thought it was directed at me...

I was just pulling your leg for some levity on the blog.
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Quoting Dakster:


Ohh you mean where the president is... The White House.

I think if there was any damage we would all know about it by now.


But how we're the rest? I imaging there are no frauds on the other side either...
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Scientists reject Sandy/Climate Link



my comment;

yep thats right nothing to see here move along


moo moo moo moo



faster and faster we go
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Quoting Tazmanian:



you sould no where the whit house is its in DC and am this wounder if there been any damg too the whit house or if evere thing made it out ok


DC came out fine. I have friends in the area and they were spared the worst of it.
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Quoting LostTomorrows:


I'm sure he's aware of that, but Washington DC was affected as well, Virginia and Maryland both were hard-hit too. Don't be mean.




oh said I was being mean
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537. redux
nice wall of text.

i scanned until i saw the discredited/fake Dr Patrick Michaels then i stopped reading.

fyi, this guy basically frauded Virginia tax payers out of hundreds of thousands of dollars by pretending to be a state climatologist for Virginia.

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Quoting Tazmanian:



you sould no where the whit house is its in DC and am this wounder if there been any damg too the whit house or if evere thing made it out ok


Ohh you mean where the president is... The White House.

I think if there was any damage we would all know about it by now.
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Quoting Dakster:
Taz - Where is the Whit House in New York so I can look it up for you?


I'm sure he's aware of that, but Washington DC was affected as well, Virginia and Maryland both were hard-hit too. Don't be mean.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 617
now for some in new

Japanese airport closed after WWII bomb found


Link
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Quoting Dakster:
Taz - Where is the Whit House in New York so I can look it up for you?



you sould no where the whit house is its in DC and am this wounder if there been any damg too the whit house or if evere thing made it out ok
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Quoting mobiledoom:


The "news" is placating nonsense. A study was conducted after Irene almost flooded the tunnels which is easily available. Estimate was at least 4 weeks and 55 billion just to refurbish subways due mostly to the fact that electronics and steel don't mix well with salt water. Duh. NYC is just a small percentage of the affected area, at least geographically speaking, and then there's all the business lost, so it seems reasonable to extrapolate or guesstimate the losses into the hundreds of billions, which we don't have and will have to borrow. How about it gutting what was left of the economy?






You're probably right about the losses although the hundreds of billions is doubtful. And for the rest of the working stiffs and business owners in the rest of America, I doubt this will gut the economy... WE make up he rest and NYC is not the entire economy.
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Taz - Where is the Whit House in New York so I can look it up for you?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Scientists reject Sandy/Climate Link



October 30 04:46 PM

by Joe D'Aleo

Was goping to do this myself, but Marc Morano beat me to the punch. Ryan gets a few mentions.

Scientists reject Sandy/Climate Link -- Warmists Go Full 'Tabloid Climatology' & Claim Sandy Speaks! -- Round Up of Hurricane Sandy Reactions

Climate Depot's Marc Morano: 'These new 'Tabloid Climatology' claims by activists attempting to link any weather event to man-made global warming is disgusting. The 'new normal' for climate activists is their ever shifting claims as they morph the entire AGW argument to focus on extreme weather. They are exploiting any weather event to promote their religious like cause and a storm like Sandy is shamelessly used to gin up fear'

Tuesday, October 30, 2012By Marc Morano – Climate Depot


For continuous updates on Hurricane articles see here.

NOAA's Martin Hoerling rejects 'Frankenstorm' climate link: 'This is not some spell conjured upon us by great external forces....unless you believe in the monster flicks of Universal Studios fame!' -- Meteorologist Hoerling of NOAA: 'The immediate cause is most likely little more than the coincidental alignment of a tropical storm with an extratropical storm. Both frequent W. Atlantic in Oct....nothing unusual with that'

Martin Hoerling of NOAA on Sandy: 'As to underlying causes, neither the frequency of tropical or extratropical cyclones over N. Atlantic are projected to appreciably change due to climate change' -- U.S. Govt Scientist Hoerling: 'Nor have there been indications of a change in their statistical behavior over this region in recent decades'

Frankenscience: 'Sandy doesn't tell us anything about climate change' -- Prof. Pielke Jr.: 'We've done long-term trends with respect to hurricane damage in the United States, and it's very safe to say that regardless of how [Sandy] plays out, there's a century-long time series with no trend in it — and that's in damage, the number of landfalls, or the intensity of storms at landfall. So, if you are looking for signals of long-term climate change, focusing in on any one storm is the wrong way to go about it to begin with'

Sandy caused by global warming? 'The science of climate change & hurricanes does not support this conclusion' -- It's 'just not supported by science at this time' -- Houston Chronicle's Science guy Eric Berger: '...it is a big stretch to go from there to blaming Sandy on climate change. It's a stretch that is just not supported by science at this time'

Climatologist Dr. Patrick Michaels on Sandy: 'It's also consistent with a planet with colder temperatures as well as one with warmer ones' -- Michaels: 'More important, events like this are inevitable on a planet that has an ocean with the geography of the Atlantic (meaning a Gulf Stream-like feature), a large north-south continent on its western margin without a transverse mountain range to inhibit the merger of tropical warmth with polar cold, and four seasons in the temperate latitudes'

German Meteorological Expert Says: 'No Evidence Showing Link Between Storms And Global Warming' -- Meteorologist Dr. Karsten Brandt: 'Brandt said that by looking back at the global data available over the last decades, there's 'no indication or evidence showing there's been an increase in storm activity. The data don't show it.' He added: 'Luckily we don't need to worry much about increasing storms in the future'

Prof. Roger Pielke Jr.: 'Remarkably, the U.S. is currently experiencing the longest-ever recorded period with no strikes of a Category 3 or stronger hurricane'

Hurricane Expert Chris Landsea: Any connection between AGW & hurricanes is 'almost certainly undetectable' -- '...and that this view is not particularly controversial among tropical cyclone climatologists. He concluded that hurricanes should not be the 'poster' representing a human influence on climate...Chris responded that asserting such a connection can be easily shown to be incorrect and thus risks some of the trust that the public has in scientists to play things straight'

Prof. Judith Curry on Sandy: 'Kevin Trenberth frequently says that global warming is affecting all of weather' -- Curry: 'Trenberth s probably right, but apart from the relative magnitude of the effect, this begs the question as to whether the effect is good or bad; arguably in terms of Atlantic hurricanes, the warming is resulting in fewer U.S. landfalls'

Talking Hurricane! Sandy Speaks: 'I am part of new normal' -- Warmists claim Sandy says: 'All U can be sure of is that the climate of past 20 & more centuries is gone'

Climate Depot Response: 'You can be sure that the 'Tabloid Climatologists' will pervert science and try to claim Sandy as some sort of 'proof' of man-made global warming. The 'new normal' for climate activists is their ever shifting claims as they morph the entire AGW argument to focus on extreme weather.'

Bad weather shuts down climatology vigil -- Sandy disrupts climate vigil in Boston: 'A storm many environmentalists see as linked to climate change has forced the end of a climate vigil in Boston'

Sandy called a 'climate twister'

Huh? Writing checks causes hurricanes! Warmist Bill McKibben: 'Chevron made largest political contribution ever last week, NYC swamped by largest storm this week. Pretty much a straight line, no?'

Climate Depot Response: 'McKibben and other warmists are practicing a form of witchcraft. They are attempting to convince the public that check writing, SUVs and home energy use are causing bad weather. They are exploiting any weather event to promote their religious like cause and a storm like Sandy is shamelessly used to gin up fear.'

Gore blames carbon dioxide for Sandy: 'Dirty energy makes dirty weather' -- Gore's Statement on Hurricane Sandy: 'Hurricane Sandy is a disturbing sign of things to come. We must heed this warning and act quickly to solve the climate crisis. Dirty energy makes dirty weather'

Warmists Bill McKibben & Joe Romm schlepping for Tabloid Climatology interviews: 'Even in midst of hurricanes, these people don't give up trying to tie weather to climate. It's shameless desperation'

'Blaming Sandy on greedy & industrious is just as mad as blaming it on gays' -- 'It's about doing that very Medieval thing of finding someone or something to blame for scary natural occurrences' -- Brendan O'Neill in UK Telegraph: 'After every natural disaster that occurs these days, we do two things. First, we guffaw or shake our heads in stern disapproval at those religious freaks who blame said disaster on mankind's sin. And second, we nod in vigorous agreement with those eco-experts who blame said disaster on man-made climate change'

Time Mag's Bryan Walsh: 'Sandy kills at least 16 people in the U.S. so far. For comparison, 117 Americans killed every day in cars' -- Update: Sandy's U.S. Death Toll Climbs To Over 30

Prof. Pielke Jr. on damage estimates: 'The current estimates of $20 billion would place Sandy at #17 all time out of 242 loss-producing storms 1900 to present (in the top 10%)' -- 'If the damage gets to $30 billion it would crack the top 10 and (top 5%). Right now it seems unlikely that Sandy will climb any higher on the table'

Meghan McCain (daughter of Sen. McCain) to GOP after Sandy: Do you still doubt climate change? '“So are we still going to go with climate change not being real fellow republicans?'

Climate Depot Response to Meghan McCain: 'Yes, we are still disputing man-made climate fears despite your inane tweets'

The Hill Newspaper: A '2012 study by UN's IPCC on extreme weather & climate change...finds that researchers currently have 'low confidence' in tying cyclone activity in recent decades to climate change'

Meteorologist Ryan Maue: 'Meghan McCain never demonstrated acumen necessary to understand hurricane/climate science. Nor did her dad'

Warmist Chris Mooney: 'Did Climate Change Supersize Hurricane Sandy?' -- 'This will be perceived as a climate-change-related event by much of the public' -- Mooney: 'Weird, extreme weather makes people worry, makes them think the world is changing. They aren't wrong about that'

Climate Depot Response: 'The public is much more intelligent than Mooney believes. Since ancient times, mankind has always worried about extreme weather. These new 'Tabloid Climatology' claims by climate activists attempting to link any weather event to man-made global warming is disgusting'

A Modest Hurricane Proposal for Honoring Climate Change Deniers -- 'Because the odds of extreme weather conditions have increased due to man-made climate change' -- 'The explosion of climate-change deniers has given us a wealth of names to choose from. No more Dorians and Humbertos! Bring on Hurricane Lungren and Tropical Storm Milloy'

'The New Normal – Everything Is The Worst Ever': 'The gubermint tells us Irene, Isaac & Sandy are the worst storms ever. The 2012 drought was worst ever. 2012 is the hottest year ever' -- 'These claims are all completely true, assuming that time began two years ago and you have the IQ of a turnip'

Good news for warmists?: Some people in the New York area face 168 straight involuntary Earth Hours -- Sandy leaves 'Millions Without Power Across Tri-State Area'

Climate Depot Background information:

HURRICANES/TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY

Teetering near historic lows:

'A new research study shows that overall global tropical cyclone activity has decreased to historically low levels during the past 5 years'

New paper finds global cyclones have reached a historical low: Geophysical Research Letters: 'Since 2006, global tropical cyclone ACE (cyclone energy) has decreased dramatically...' '...to the lowest levels since the late 1970s. Additionally, the global frequency of tropical cyclones has reached a historical low'

World Meteorological Organization study: 'We cannot at this time conclusively identify anthropogenic signals in past tropical cyclone data' – 'Landfalling tropical storm and hurricane activity in the US shows no long-term increase'

U.S. sees 2,232nd consecutive days without being hit by major hurricane – 'shatters' previous streak set in 1906 – Prof. Pielke Jr.: 'Since there won't be any intense hurricanes before next summer, the record will be shattered, with the days between intense hurricane landfalls likely to exceed 2,500 days'

Hurricanes Becoming Much Less Frequent In Florida: 'By June,2012 it will have been almost 7 years without a hurricane strike in Florida -the longest period on record' - 'Since 1950,hurricane strikes in Florida have been coming progressively further apart'

When it comes to hurricanes, climate change effects may be 'a wash' - 'A new report on extreme weather from UN IPCC, released last month, suggests that for hurricanes at least, the effects of global warming remain uncertain and likely so incremental that it might be difficult to even measure them' ... That's kind of a wash in my book,' said Chris Landsea'

The Decline In Major Hurricanes: 'The most active period for major hurricanes in the US was 1931-1960' -- 'The frequency of major hurricanes is now about half what it was 60 years ago. The most intense hurricane to ever hit the US occurred in 1935'

Hurricane Facts: 'According to NOAA, they have been on decline in US since the beginning of records in 19th century. The worst decade for major (category 3,4,5) hurricanes was 1940s' -- 'There has only been one US hurricane strike in last 1,130 days. 7,000 days have passed since a cat 5 hit US. In 1886, US was hit by 7 hurricanes...It has been over 6 years since a major one hit US. Deadliest hurricane to hit US happened in 1900. Florida hurricanes are in sharp decline. Florida has averaged nearly one per year since 1850. It has been over 6 years since Fla. was hit – the longest hurricane free period in that state.'

New Tropical Cyclone Research From China Reveals Major IPCC Prediction Fail

Third Quietest Hurricane Period On Record In The US: 'US hurricane strikes have been on the decline since NOAA started measuring them before the Civil War' -- 'Over the last six years, there have been officially six hurricane strikes in the US, the third quietest period on record. Six out of the seven quietest periods have been since 1975'

NOAA : 'No trend toward more frequent or stronger hurricanes': 'Links these cycles of busy & quiet hurricane period in 20th Century to natural changes in Atlantic Ocean temps'


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I think time square got vary luckey it could have been a lot wores in time square in new York any way any damg reports from time square? what about the whit house how did that make it
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Quoting Dakster:


Even worse and this happened in Florida.

Fire/Rescue responded to an accident with serious injuries - about 2 miles up the road there was another accident that caused a power pole to fall across the roadway and live wires were laying across that white line on the side of the road. When the fireman stepped on the white line he became the ground strap and was killed/electrocuted...

Now throw salt water in the mix -- not good....

P.S. That is why all new roads have a break in the white line every 1/4 - 1/2 mile. Those lines are put down with hot metal on the road. Ever wonder why they do not fade/chip/peel nearly as fast as the pain in your driveway?


Thermoplastic.. it goes down HOT and melts into the asphalt/concrete thus giving it good grippage.
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For those of you who have Direct TV, check channels 346-350. Earlier today they had coverage of this event from many different cities and stations. Very interesting to watch - not often us in Cali can see other areas newscasts. Prayers and hope from us here in Los Angeles to those impacted.
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I don't see a lot of members of this blog since early yesterday....Probably are without power
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525. vanwx
I and most us here would like to salute and thank the Geeks at WU who made a near flawless journey through the cyber storm of the last few days. Cheers to you guys.
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Most of the NYC skyline still black. Good webcam to check out looking across the harbor from staten island...

Link
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Quoting Articuno:

It was a crappy ride but R.I.P (didn't ride it but based on the POV videos it was horrible.)


They can always rename it the rust bucket...
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Quoting sar2401:

Ah, I get it now. It's not the houses close to the bridge, it's the ones that are one street back. Sorry I was so confused. It appears that several have collapsed and at least two seem to be missing most of the structure. I guess they must have been unlucky enough to be in the peak flow area of the surge. Thanks for staying with me on this one. Indeed, it looks like a long hard winter there. The storm surge there looks like it was much worse than even the most pessimistic predictions. :(
Well, it's crazy to see the same thing repeated all up and down the NJ coast.

I think if I'd labeled the initial images clearer, some confusion could have been spared. Sorry about that.
Member Since: March 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 316
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Jet Star roller coaster hanging into the Atlantic Ocean in NJ


It was a crappy ride but R.I.P (didn't ride it but based on the POV videos it was horrible.)
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2556
Quoting floridaT:
many are not aware a downed power line could be a block away, you step in water the line is in zap


Even worse and this happened in Florida.

Fire/Rescue responded to an accident with serious injuries - about 2 miles up the road there was another accident that caused a power pole to fall across the roadway and live wires were laying across that white line on the side of the road. When the fireman stepped on the white line he became the ground strap and was killed/electrocuted...

Now throw salt water in the mix -- not good....

P.S. That is why all new roads have a break in the white line every 1/4 - 1/2 mile. Those lines are put down with hot metal on the road. Ever wonder why they do not fade/chip/peel nearly as fast as the pain in your driveway?
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Quoting EricSpittle:
That is why I didn't spend a second of this storm on Twitter, much more intelligent people here.
Apparently just for kicks and attention, a fellow--@ComfortablySmug--spent much of last evening manufacturing rumors on Twitter (such as the one about the NY Stock Exchange being under three feet of water). He was outed today--he's an NYC-based hedge-fund analyst who also manages Republican Christopher R. Wight's campaign for the House of Representatives--and is now being rightly pilloried on the internet. Sort of a very pathetic, very high-visibility troll, in other words.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
Miami NWS Disco

A SPOKE OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH
SANDY IS LIKELY TO BREAK OFF AND MOVE SOUTHWARD...ARRIVING IN
SOUTH FLORIDA BY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BRIEF INCREASE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MEASURABLE
RAIN CHANCES ARE AS YET SLIGHT.
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517. wxmod
USA wind map. Put it in motion here:http://hint.fm/wind/

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Quoting dogsgomoo:
As it is the only bridge there. Yes. That is the one the photos were taken from, facing towards the ocean. I don't understand. The post-storm images are the ones I previously posted. The ones you said that it is unlikely for a structure to be standing if others around it are gone. I guess, if you would like to count the missing structures you could zoom into Google street view and place yourself on the bridge then stroll the streets. Sometimes understanding involves a bit of leg work. Especially in the digital age.

This is another post-storm photo of the area form the Normandy Beach Facebook page. (Which is public btw, in case you want to take a look.)


Not sure what else to show you. But imagery aside. This is going to be a very long and difficult winter for many people.

Ah, I get it now. It's not the houses close to the bridge, it's the ones that are one street back. Sorry I was so confused. It appears that several have collapsed and at least two seem to be missing most of the structure. I guess they must have been unlucky enough to be in the peak flow area of the surge. Thanks for staying with me on this one. Indeed, it looks like a long hard winter there. The storm surge there looks like it was much worse than even the most pessimistic predictions. :(
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17453
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hearing on the news that they're expecting Sandy's damage totals to pass 20 billion, and will probably be on pair with Ike.


The "news" is placating nonsense. A study was conducted after Irene almost flooded the tunnels which is easily available. Estimate was at least 4 weeks and 55 billion just to refurbish subways due mostly to the fact that electronics and steel don't mix well with salt water. Duh. NYC is just a small percentage of the affected area, at least geographically speaking, and then there's all the business lost, so it seems reasonable to extrapolate or guesstimate the losses into the hundreds of billions, which we don't have and will have to borrow. How about it gutting what was left of the economy?




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514. vanwx
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Bloomberg said in his last presser something about putting a crane on the "roof.".

edit: to lower the dangling boom, not the counterweight, is my understanding


There's always more than one way of doing things.
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Meanwhile in the EPAC, Rosa is strengthening:

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Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Bloomberg said in his last presser something about putting a crane on the "roof.".

edit: to lower the dangling boom, not the counterweight, is my understanding

That's also a possibility, and one I had thought of. A properly braced and located jib crane could retrieve the boom so it could be dismantled and lowered more quickly and cheaply than jacking up a sister crane. My concern was what condition the roof is in and if it's structurally capable of supporting such a crane. I'm sure there are lots of engineers and steel workers looking at all the possibilities.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17453
Quoting sar2401:

Sorry, I'm not trying to be difficult, nor do I think you were trying to fool anyone. I see the google image of what I guess was the area before the storm. Is Herbert St. the bridge the pictures were taken from? Is there a post storm google image I'm missing? I'm having a hard time matching up what was shown from the bridge with any missing structures on the google earth image.
As it is the only bridge there. Yes. That is the one the photos were taken from, facing towards the ocean. I don't understand. The post-storm images are the ones I previously posted. The ones you said that it is unlikely for a structure to be standing if others around it are gone. I guess, if you would like to count the missing structures you could zoom into Google street view and place yourself on the bridge then stroll the streets. Sometimes understanding involves a bit of leg work. Especially in the digital age.

This is another post-storm photo of the area from the Normandy Beach Facebook page. (Which is public btw, in case you want to take a look.)


Not sure what else to show you. But imagery aside. This is going to be a very long and difficult winter for many people.
Member Since: March 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 316
510. vanwx
Quoting sar2401:

OK, but that last view is too close to show the fate of the other houses in the area. It also seems odd that the storm would have taken down all those other houses while that one totally exposed structure is still standing with apparently very little damage. If you can find some pictures that show the area where the other houses are gone, that would be much more informative.


It's not so rare at all. My father was a disaster relief organizer for 35 yrs. The house could have been built to a more up-to-date code or by an owner/carpenter. The last renovation I built I'm sure was the only one with hurricane ties in the roof and earth quake walls.It's hard to get people to invest in protection when they're stressed by construction expenses. Ask Trump. That Trump tower is going to need a new crane anyway.
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Quoting wxmod:
MODIS satellite photo today.



Both peninsulas of Michigan are missing according to that sat photo. And New Jersey think they got it bad!!!!
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Quoting falloch:
Just venting here as a complete amateur weather watcher - but after nearly two weeks of going to NOAA's website that was easy to access, all of a sudden I'm instructed to go to other sites, that don't show up very well, and make me hunt for specific geographical areas, while there's still a big stonking drama-queen of a storm (no, no longer a hurricane) stomping all over the eastern half of North America. This blog has been a lifesaver - as I watch from Scotland as my family and friends in NY, MA, PA, and ME are 'challenged', but just pissed that NOAA's hurricane website is easy to see, but once it's no longer a hurricane, you need to start hunting, which I don't think is fair, since the leftover weather from Sandy is still horrendous, and it's important to try and get info.

ALL PRAISE to Prof Masters and the wonderful Wunderblog - you've gotten me through a number of storms that might affect my family members that I've needed to view from far away. But your efforts for Sandy have been outstanding, and no doubt will continue to be so.

Yes, that transition from tropical cyclone to non-tropical was very confusing to a lot of users. I thought the NHC was going to post updates on the storm until winds dropped below tropical storm strength, but it seems like there are some clear lines of responsibility that the local NWS offices felt belong to them, and the NHC shouldn't keep posting updates. Maybe this will prompt the NWS to think about the idea of a single site resource to track serious storms over land rather than have to hunt through each individual NWS site for details. Once it devolves to individual NWS offices, you are trapped with some offices that do really good updates and others that are marginal at best. Don't know what the answer is but I clearly see it as a problem.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17453
507. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
23:30 PM IST October 30 2012
=========================================

Cyclone Warning For North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

Orange Message

At 18:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam moved northward and lays centered near 10.0N 82.0E or about 400 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 180 km north northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The cyclone is likely to move north northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Predesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore near Chennai around 12:00 PM UTC, October 31st.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of Nilam is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection lies over Sri Lanka, Gulf of Mannar, Comorin, Palk Strait, Tamil Nadu, adjoining Rayalseema, southwest adjoining west central Bay of Bengal between 7.0N to 11.5N west of 83.0E.

3 minute sustained winds of the cyclone is 40 knots gusting up to 50 knots. The central pressure of the system is 996 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the cyclone.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is >80 kj/cm2 around the system center. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. An anticyclonic circulation lies over west central Bay of Bengal (northeast of system center). The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15.0N. The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity remained same during past six hours and the vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is 5-10 knots around system center. 24 hours wind shear tendency shows decreasing trend of the order of 10 knots over west central Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 11.5N 80.8E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 13.0N 79.8E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
30 HRS: 13.8N 79.3E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
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Jet Star roller coaster hanging into the Atlantic Ocean in NJ

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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