Sandy moving ashore, bringing record storm surge flooding

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:40 PM GMT on October 29, 2012

Share this Blog
47
+

Hurricane Sandy is making its final approach, and will be ashore near the Delaware/new Jersey border early this evening. The scale of this massive storm truly earns Sandy the title of "superstorm", and no storm since at least 1988 has struck the U.S. with a wider area of tropical storm-force winds. High wind warnings are posted from Northern Michigan to Lake Okeechobee, Florida, and from Chicago to Maine. All-time low pressure records have been set at Atlantic City, NJ, Philadelphia, PA, and Wilmington Delaware. The rain is coming down in sheets along the east coast, where heavy rain stretches from Virginia to Pennsylvania and New York. Virginia Beach, VA has seen 9.26", Dover, DE has seen 6.36" and Ocean City, MD has seen 6.31". Some of the heaviest rain, apart from close to the center, is actually on the far western side, where a strong band of precipitation has set up running north to south from Erie, PA south to Pittsburgh, PA. This strong band of rain is moving west into Ohio. Wind gusts have been peaking above 80 mph in New York, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts this afternoon. The strongest gusts we've seen today include 86 mph at Westerly, RI, 84 mph on Plum Island, NY, and 83 mph on Cuttyhunk Island, MA. Sustained winds speeds of 40+ mph stretch from Delaware to Rhode island, with the strongest sustained wind closest to the center of circulation in Lewes, DE. All of this strong, onshore wind has been pushing huge amounts of water toward the shore, where it has nothing to do but pile up over land. As of 5pm EDT, here are the highest storm surges seen:

Kings Point, NY: 7.85 ft
Sandy Hook, NJ: 7.55 ft
Bridgeport, CT: 7.3 ft
New Haven, CT: 6.82 ft
The Battery, NY: 6.7 ft
New London, CT: 5.76 ft
Atlantic City, NJ: 5.69 ft
Lewes, DE: 4.46 ft

We just added live tide gauge heights on our wundermap, so you can follow the changes in surge as Sandy roars ashore.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Sandy taken at 2:20 pm EDT Monday, October 29, 2012. At the time, Sandy was a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Sandy bringing high winds all the way to Chicago
The scope of this storm is truly astonishing. As Sandy combines with the fall low pressure system over the Northeast U.S., its circulation will intensify, and winds over the Great Lakes will increase. Storm warnings are posted for Tuesday on Lake Michigan near Chicago, where sustained 55 - 60 mph winds and waves of 20 - 25 feet are expected. Storm warnings are posted on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, and high winds from Sandy blowing off of Lake Erie caused damage to signs in Port Clinton, Ohio this afternoon. Check out this webcam view of a very angry Lake Erie. High wind warnings extend from northern Michigan to Central Florida.

Sandy's storm tide peaking early this evening
Storm surge should peak between 7 - 8 pm, and high tide will peak a little later, 8 - 9 pm, depending upon location. The storm tide--how high the water gets above some reference point, commonly chosen to be the average of the daily lowest low tide of the month (Mean Lower Low Water, MLLW) is what we use to discuss how bad storm surge flooding is. The storm tide is the combination of the storm surge and the tide. At Sandy Hook, NJ, the storm tide has reached 10.11', and is still rising. This breaks the old record set by Hurricane Donna in 1960, and the Nor'easter of Dec 11th, 1992. As of 6 pm EDT, the storm tide at The Battery in New York City was 10.1'. The record is 10.5', set during Hurricane Donna of 1960. That also happens to be the level the Lower Manhattan subway system will flood, unless the defenses have been improved since last year's Hurricane Irene. High tide is at 8:53 pm. The rise in surge has slowed down, but the surge may not be slowing down fast enough to avoid record flooding in New York City.

Links for Sandy
An impressive 1-minute resolution satellite loop of Sandy today is at the CSU RAMMB website.

Hurricane Sandy info from NASA.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

Storm Surge prediction model from the Stevens Institute of Technology, which use a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows.

Research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook for New York City.

I have to cut this post a bit short due to the many media interviews I'm involved with, but will be back in the morning with much more.

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1875 - 1825

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38Blog Index

1875. connie1976
7:43 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Can anyone tell me how bad Long Island is and when do you think they will have power again? Thanks all!
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
1874. HopquickSteve
5:21 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
The NHC needs to rethink how they name the warnings. TBH, the distinction between warm and cold core storms is meaningless to the lay person.

Once we replace Saffir-Simpson, it should be a no brainer to use the same scale for any ocean to land event, Nor'easter or Hurricane.

So instead of saying Hurricane Watch or Warning, or Gale/Wind etc. The main category classification should be based on surge anyways, but that's a different discussion.
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
1873. leftlink
4:00 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
moved.
Member Since: December 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 134
1872. RTSplayer
3:40 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

What I don't understand is why some experts always change their mind with each ebb and flow in the wake of these disasters. I am certainly not refuting the theory that CC could have played some role or contributed in ways to these monster storms, but to change you predictions with the tides is unscientific. I don't understand why at first it was "there will be many more hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin" followed by "there will be fewer storms but with much greater intensity" followed again by "there will be storms that will impact regions not normally accustomed to seeing storms" Make up you mind and don't just make the rules as you go along. The theory supposedly has been around now for 100 years. Well then, plenty of time to make predictions and stick to them, don't you think?


the theory has been around, but understanding every detail or consequence of the "basic concept" of a theory is not very easy.

Take the theory of Relativity, for example, the concept that light's speed never changes isn't so hard, the math to describe the effects of it, and then TEST the theory, now that's complicated.

Take a look at SST anomalies from yesterday when the storm was offshore and near peak intensity.



Widespread pocket of 1C above average, with a sliver of 2C to 3C above average temperatures.

What's the rule on convection? 4.5% convection increase per degree temperature increase?


Forecasting the number and intensity of storms is pretty weird.

I forecasted 15 to 16 named storms and I forget how many majors, and I assumed it would be a "front heavy" season. This is 18.

My number came from simply taking 1/2 and 2/3rds of the average neutral year and adding 1/2 and 1/3rd of the average el nino year to each number respectively, but even that is just a statistical/climatological approach. i.e. forecasting what climatology does in a year where el nino should start at half or 2/3rds of the season.

It ended up being a bit low for named systems, and a total bust on SS wind scale majors, but not so big a bust on "storm surge major equivalents".


So over all, "scientific," but very little skill, yet I beat the guys with super computers using only a few minutes worth of thought, yet even my number was too low by 20% (so far).

Other times I've been totally and ridiculously wrong, even when I could likewise make a rational argument why it should have worked.

so I hope that demonstrates how different and difficult this field of meteorology and climatology really is when the real number of storms ended up being nearly twice the best scientific forecast, and 20% above my "pieced climatology" forecast.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1871. BmtJedi
3:40 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:
Well, I'm kinda glad I forgot about this storm and quit following it. I knew it was coming in as a big one, but I had other things on my mind.


All I have to say about NHC if they didn't issue a hurricane warning, is that there needs to be an alternative definition of a "hurricane" if the classical definition doesn't fit, but everyone knows the storm is functionally equivalent to a hurricane.

Not issuing an official hurricane warning or equivalent for a storm like this just seems unprofessional, and there will probably be a congressional hearing about it, because some Governor, Mayor, or Senator is going to have a fit, and rightfully so.




I agree with you, but here are some thoughts. There will be vocal comments no matter what decision the NWS makes. Any direction they go, they'll be criticized. In cases like this, especially for a governmental body, they are going to follow their documented protocol. They made the decision to follow their guidelines and allow local weather services to manage the alerts. It wasn't a bad idea. Most people pay more attention to local services than the NWS. I'm neither agreeing nor disagreeing with them, but what can you do when you know any decision is going to be looked at negatively.
Member Since: October 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
1870. indianrivguy
3:38 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


I've been posting that for two days, but with all the excitement, no one noticed. Yo pa kwe sa-a.


snort... "I" watch, you were first ... again...
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2587
1869. tiggeriffic
3:38 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
wow...global warming still? How about millions without power...and will be for days on end...how bout global warming will cease for the next few days or possibly weeks since no one has any power...how about cow farts emit co2 as well and methane causes global warming...as long as population rises there will be emissions to the ozone regardless of what we do...more people, more methane gases from people and the animals we consume, the more electricity we use, regardless of whether it is renewable or fossil...no offense but I do NOT want a nuke plant anywhere near me, and since i am in a city we dont have the space for wind...that knocks us down to just a few options...i want safe power...i conserve where i can, hang out laundry,car pool,etc, however, arguing the semantics of what caused this storm is futile...it went against every law of physics there is as far as a hurricane goes and I lived through Hugo, i lived through the not having power for days/weeks/and longer in some of our areas...half of the reason that we know how strong storms are now...WE HAVE A SCALE!!! Before satelites, computers, etc...there was no way to gauge a storm except by guessing by the amount of damage...100 years ago, people on one coast would not have know about the other coast and what happened for days if not weeks and there would have been no pictures to look at..in fact...small islands getting hit would have gone unnoticed unless a ship was in the area...now...it is instant gratification so there is a place to put the blame...lets be realistic...it isnt just the emissions that is doing all of this...it is a way of life and technology that permits us to see it all now at an instant...not just global warming
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
1868. goosegirl1
3:34 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Yay, I'm back! It was a wild night, I spent a lot of time listening to the roof creak and struggle with the wind, but we came through with roof intact. Power went off about 9 pm but was back on at 10:45 this morning. Right now, we are 80 miles due south of Sandy and still getting wind and what I like to call "the spit of demons", rain, snow and sleet flying along at 30 MPH. It's 35 degrees, roads are treacherous due to downed trees and small stream flooding and the worst flooding is yet to come as all the water finally runs into the Potomac. Locally there are a few flood warnings on Patterson's Creek, and the Potomac is expected to flood from Harper's Ferry to DC. All in all, things have been worse, and I hope they get better and the flooding is minor.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1238
1867. Neapolitan
3:34 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Quoting yoboi:


wow comparing tropical cyclones with asprins to gw; you sure cleared the confusion....
Thanks! That's what I do best.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13626
1865. Waltanater
3:32 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
from what i understand, it was a power transformer that blew up and the sparks etc..in that wind blew onto several house roofs and started the fires, dont think any building code could have prevented that IF..thats what did start those fires..in that wind, flames jumping from house to house..gee, im sure fire inspectors etc will be working for months, trying to find out the cause or causes..real bad time for those families that have to come back to find their house in ruins
Yeah, you (& Neo) are absolutely right. I read "fire" right after I posted...so my bad. Disregard. When I read it, I was thinking regular storm damage from wind, etc. for some reason.
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
1864. Skyepony (Mod)
3:31 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Quoting Wiiilbur:


I'm confused about all the folks who are crying about hurricane warnings not being posted. Doesn't a hurricane warning indicate that hurricane conditions (sustained wind speed > 74 mph) are expected? Since that is a pretty rigid criteria and those conditions didn't happen, why were they wrong? Perhaps they should have issued a "really scary storm" warning.


Really scarey storm warnings were issued. Hurricane winds were expected & did happen. Note it was a smaller area than the area affected by snow.

WIND GUSTS
---------------

ISLIP NY 90 MPH
2 N TOMPKINSVILLE NJ 90 MPH
SURF CITY NJ 89 MPH
TUCKERTON NJ 88 MPH
1 N MONTCLAIR NJ 88 MPH
MADISON CT 85 MPH
PLUM ISLAND NY 84 MPH
CUTTYHUNK MA 83 MPH
DENNISVILLE 81 MPH
SANDY HOOK NJ 81 MPH
WELLFLEET MA 81 MPH
JFK NY 79 MPH
NEWARK NJ 78 MPH
ATLANTIC CITY NJ 77 MPH
GROTON CT 76 MPH
HARVEY CEDARS NJ 75 MPH
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 196 Comments: 38769
1863. Dsntslp
3:30 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I have a question...with the onset of lower than normal temperatures here in south Florida for 3 days(lows in the 40's and 50's) wouldn't that help to cool the Atlantic and speed up a possible end of this years hurricane season? It seems to me it would, but I've been wrong a couple of other times in the past.
Bump.

Good question.
I have no answer but I am curious to hear the input of others so I am bumping it up for you. :)
Member Since: August 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 70
1862. weblackey
3:29 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


I've been posting that for two days, but with all the excitement, no one noticed. Yo pa kwe sa-a.


Hey, I noticed!

*now really back to lurking
Member Since: April 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
1861. Skyepony (Mod)
3:28 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
We would be ridiculing the NHC for issuing a Hurricane Warning when post-tropical Sandy dropped this much snow. Hurricanes don't cause snow. People were warned hurricane winds were coming & thankfully others were told to prepare for snow..cause it fell plentifully..one place more than 2ft!
SNOWFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 11 AM EDT

..KENTUCKY...
LYNCH 3S 12.0
ELKO 1NW 9.0
BENHAM 3S 6.0

...MARYLAND...
REDHOUSE 26.0
GARRETT 26.0
DEEP CREEK LAKE 20.0
OAKLAND 12.0

...NORTH CAROLINA...
BAKERSVILLE 6N 8.0
FAUST 4NW 6.0
LANSING 6NW 5.0
CRESTON 4.0

...PENNSYLVANIA...
CHAMPION 4SE 13.0
MOUNT DAVIS 9.0
LAUREL SUMMIT 6.0

...VIRGINIA...
TAZEWELL 1E 5.0
CLINTWOOD 2WSW 4.0
BURKES GARDEN 3.0

...WEST VIRGINIA...
DAVIS 23.0
BAYARD 19.0
TERRA ALTA 1N 18.0
WEBSTER SPINGS 17.0
FAYETTEVILLE 11E 15.0
SHADY SPRING 14.0
MORGANTOWN 3SE 12.0
SNOWSHOE 1S 11.0
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 196 Comments: 38769
1859. yoboi
3:27 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
I didn't start here until November of 2009, so you're obviously confused.

Climate scientists are uncertain of the precise link between GW and tropical cyclones. In some ways, those cyclones should be made stronger; in others, less so. But just because they're uncertain about the exact connection between the two doesn't in any way mean they're uncertain that there is a connection; after all, medical scientists are still unsure of the exact mechanism by which aspirin works, but they're absolutely certain that it does work.

Try not to confuse the two...


wow comparing tropical cyclones with asprins to gw; you sure cleared the confusion....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2441
1858. Neapolitan
3:27 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Quoting oracle28:


Drought-caused by global warming
Storms-caused by global warming
Ice melt-caused by global warming
Floods-caused by global warming
Blizzards-caused by global warming
Not "caused"; that's a weak, lame, and highly overused straw man argument. But by its very definition, GW certainly plays a part in all of those.

(Although I should note: elementary school physics teaches us that warmer temperatures do, indeed, melt ice.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13626
1857. aspectre
3:26 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for PostTropicalStormSandy @ 30Oct.12pm
38.3n73.1w 39.5n74.5w 40.3n76.3w has been re-evaluated&altered
38.3n73.0w 39.5n74.5w 39.9n76.4w 40.0n77.9w are now the most recent positions
PIT-Pittsburgh :: 8PN0-Chambersberg :: 9W8-Brogue :: AIY-AtlanticCity

Click this link to the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map with more info
And the previous mapping for comparison
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1856. weblackey
3:26 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
It's tragically unfortunate that climate change has been politicized in the first place. All we should be considering is the data and what it tells us... the science.

That science is pointing to more of what we've been experiencing recently. No matter what party/religion/sports team/beer you prefer... climate change is happening and we can't at this point stop what we've started, but we can still help mitigate its effects on our society.

This is entirely appropriate for a weather site. Sandy is the topic here, but what helps generate events like Sandy is pertinent as well. We can walk and chew gum at the same time, we can help those in need right now, and discuss what happened and why as well.

*Back to lurking
Member Since: April 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
1855. airChrist
3:25 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
I don't get the bashing of the NHC. First of all, they had Sandy dead-to-rights for days. And everyone I know was well aware of what was predicted. Maybe they shouldn't have worried about semantics at the last minute. But if you honestly didn't know about the danger than you are stupid, stubborn or both.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 88
1854. Neapolitan
3:24 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Quoting yoboi:


you said the same thing after 2005 season with majors hitting every yr that did not pan out....
I didn't start here until November of 2009, so you're obviously confused.

Climate scientists are uncertain of the precise link between GW and tropical cyclones. In some ways, those cyclones should be made stronger; in others, less so. But just because they're uncertain about the exact connection between the two doesn't in any way mean they're uncertain that there is a connection; after all, medical scientists are still unsure of the exact mechanism by which aspirin works, but they're absolutely certain that it does work.

Try not to confuse the two...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13626
1853. presslord
3:23 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
This is from a friend of mine...and is just one example of why your support of Portlight matters so much to so many. We're getting someone over there.

Can any New Yorkers help out Nick _______ & Alejandra ________??? Nick is on a vent, and they have no power in lower manhattan -

"Hello. Thanks everyone, for thinking of us. We, like many, finally lost power. Ventilator battery charging via FDNY generator going as planned but needs someone to take batteries up/down 12 flights. If anyone has any leads on portable power/charging/generator options, pl
ease advise. We have phones and feeding pump, suction machine, oxygen concentrator & wheelchair that could use power. We'll probably need some food soon. This could go on a while, so ANY help appreciated.

(Evacuating to hospital is very risky for us & esp. Nick, won't be considered unless all else fails, so please don't suggest it.) --"
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
1852. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:23 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1851. KarenRei
3:22 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
I don't understand why at first it was "there will be many more hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin" followed by "there will be fewer storms but with much greater intensity" followed again by "there will be storms that will impact regions not normally accustomed to seeing storms" Make up you mind.


Because science is just one person who keeps changing his mind and uses one single approach?

Modeling hurricane genesis rates in the Atlantic Basin is one of the most difficult things you can do. As you may have noticed, the number of hurricanes annually in the Atlantic ranges from zero to 15 and fluctuates wildly from year to year. As you may also have noticed, hurricane formation and development is a very nuanced, sensitive issue and the models for doing so are still evolving. Different people use different approaches at different point in time and try to reach conclusions.

The key thing is, that not only is there is a good deal of uncertainty, but it is *known* that there is said uncertainty in the results. Here's what Dr. Masters summed up once upon a time:

What does the IPCC say about stronger hurricanes?

The IPCC did a good job with their treatment of how global warming is affecting hurricanes. Here's their carefully worded statement on the observed changes:

There is observational evidence for an increase of intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea surface temperatures. There are also suggestions of increased intense tropical cyclone activity in some other regions where concerns over data quality are greater. Multi-decadal variability and the quality of the tropical cyclone records prior to routine satellite observations in about 1970 complicate the detection of long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity. There is no clear trend in the annual numbers of tropical cyclones.

Later in the report, there is a table that shows that there has likely (>66% chance) been an increase in strong hurricanes since 1970 in some regions. It isn't mentioned, but the Atlantic is the region where this increase has been most notable. Also in that table is the assertion that it is more likely than not (>50% chance) that there has been a human contribution to this trend. This statement was leaked to the press yesterday, and resulted in speculation that the IPCC concluded that stronger hurricanes like Katrina were due to human-caused global warming. However, there is a footnote on the table, which wasn't part of yesterday's leaked press reports: "Magnitude of anthropogenic contributions not assessed. Attribution for these phenomena based on expert judgment rather than formal attribution studies."

In other words, the link between stronger hurricanes and global warming is a theory (expert judgment) and is not a conclusion of the IPCC. It is reasonable to theorize that some human contribution is responsible for the increase in strong hurricanes in the Atlantic since 1970, since this increase does correlate so well with the observed increase in sea surface temperatures. However, as mentioned in the earlier paragraph, it is difficult to make a strong statement saying that global warming is responsible for stronger hurricanes, due to the high natural variability of these storms and the poor observational record: "multi-decadal variability and the quality of the tropical cyclone records prior to routine satellite observations in about 1970 complicate the detection of long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity." The IPCC table is confusing, and I believe it was a mistake to assign a probability of how likely a human contribution to hurricane intensity has been. There is not enough good science to make a sound judgment, and this section of the table should have been left blank.

Finally, the IPCC projection for how climate change will affect hurricanes in the future is pretty non-controversial, since they don't attach any numbers saying how large these effects will be


This is a *very* different statement from the IPCC's statements about other aspects of the climate system - ocean acidification, historic surface temperatures, future surface temperature trends, causes, etc. The various lines of data and approaches for modeling are in general much better understood and in accordance than tropical cyclone genesis, and yield a much higher confidence interval.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 940
1850. Skyepony (Mod)
3:22 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL182012
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD WHILE
WEAKENING ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 78.4W
ABOUT 120 MILES...190 KM...ESE OF PITTSBURGH PENNSYLVANIA.
ABOUT 145 MILES...235KM...W OF PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...72 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.0 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ALONG THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. STORM
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COAST...FROM VIRGINIA TO MASSACHUSETTS. STORM WARNINGS ARE ALSO
IN EFFECT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

FLOOD AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES.

BLIZZARD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR EXTREME WESTERN MARYLAND
AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE...EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND
EXTREME WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H. SANDY HAS
SLOWED IN FORWARD MOTION AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD
TAKE A TURN TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE WILL
MOVE INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...72 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.0 INCHES.


HAZARDS
-------
WIND...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

STORM SURGE...EVEN THOUGH WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEEN
SUBSIDING...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE COULD
STILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS APPROACHING HIGH TIDE. THE
WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE...

PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DELAWARE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE JERSEY SHORE...1 TO 3 FT
NEW YORK NORTHWARD TO MASSACHUSETTS...1 TO 2 FT

DUE TO STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES IS POSSIBLE.

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
THE SURGE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST EXPOSED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BRINGING STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FROM
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ACROSS DELAWARE...MARYLAND...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNT OF 2 TO 5 INCHES LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN MAINE.

SNOWFALL...SNOWFALL STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO FAR WESTERN MARYLAND. SNOWFALL
STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY...IN THE
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 196 Comments: 38769
1849. Eng1n3rd
3:20 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Quoting Methurricanes:
Cleveland has 30moh winds 40mpoh gusts right off the lake.

What part of Cleveland are you looking at, winds seem to be picking up on the West side
Member Since: August 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
1848. ILwthrfan
3:20 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Quoting oracle28:


When literally every weather event is linked to global warming, how could anyone argue against it?

Global warming is the new religion.


Religion is based on faith, Global warming is based on physics, chemistry, and statistics...
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1535
1846. WeatherNerdPR
3:19 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
A flooded underground parking lot in NYC, a few blocks south of Wall Street.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1841. Eng1n3rd
3:18 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Quoting TheThinker:
The March Storm of 1962

We get it, you're obsessed with linking these storms. Please stop posting the same thing over and over and over.
Member Since: August 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
1838. Opensheart
3:17 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
I believe, based on what I’ve been learning from http://neven1.typepad.com/ that Sandy’s path was a direct traceable result of global warming. So much ice melted in the arctic that the ‘cold pole’ the center of coldness in the arctic shifted at least temporarily, from the remaining ice cap to Greenland. Greenland is or at least was the coldest spot left. This shifted the arctic high from the North Pole to Greenland and extended out into the North Atlantic. This created the blocking high people talk about.

At the same time, as the arctic melts the temperature gradient between the mid-latitudes and the arctic is reduced, or gets flatter. [That’s my own un-scientific term ] The reason I say flatter is because it helps explain the next illustration.

When a river is flowing down a steep or moderate gradient, it flows faster and tries to flow straighter. But when the land flattens out the river tends to wander. It starts creating these large loops back and forth.

So switching back to the atmosphere. As the temperature gradient gets flatter between the arctic and mid-latitudes, the jet stream starts to wander. It creates these big loops where it can scoop way down south and back up north, almost doubling back on itself.

And part of what made Sandy such a perfect storm is that the jet stream formed one of these loops just in the right spot so that it could grab Sandy and pull it back into shore. I believe the jet stream was actually curing back to the north-east at this point, almost doubling back on the point where it turned south.

So from that prospective both the blocking high and the kink in the jet stream where a result of a warming arctic which is the place that is showing global warming the most.

Hence I do believe global warming is driving the climate changes we continue to see. Humans are such creatures of habit, that they often respond with such anger, hatred, resistance, denial to changes forced upon them. I wish we could grow past such reactions and into more positive responses.


Member Since: July 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
1837. RTSplayer
3:17 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Well, I'm kinda glad I forgot about this storm and quit following it. I knew it was coming in as a big one, but I had other things on my mind.


All I have to say about NHC if they didn't issue a hurricane warning, is that there needs to be an alternative definition of a "hurricane" if the classical definition doesn't fit, but everyone knows the storm is functionally equivalent to a hurricane.

Not issuing an official hurricane warning or equivalent for a storm like this just seems unprofessional, and there will probably be a congressional hearing about it, because some Governor, Mayor, or Senator is going to have a fit, and rightfully so.


This will be the second time this year (Isaac) where the NHC botched the degree of necessary warning in the PUBLIC MIND due to following too-narrow technicalities of man-made classification systems.

This was not a scientific or forecasting problem, it was a technicality. "Well, technically it's not a hurricane, so let's not give a warning..."


Wow. Their job is to save life and property, which I'm not blaming any deaths on them yet, but the average person who doesn't follow weather all the time NEEDS a specific degree of warning that is appropriate, regardless of the "technicalities" of storm type definitions.

Named system
Cat 1 winds, nearly cat 2 winds.
Cat 3 pressure
Cat 3 surge

Not a hurricane...Just wow...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1836. oracle28
3:17 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Quoting KarenRei:


Still waiting for an *actual* rebuttal to anything I wrote.

* AGW models generally predict increased snowfall at mid and high latitudes
* Warmer air holds more moisture than colder air
* A warmer modeled planet holds significantly more atmospheric moisture
* Air in the atmosphere circulates between warm areas and cold areas
* Water vapor tends to precipitate out when it cools.
* The highest odds of snowfall are just *above* freezing

Got anything? Anything? Bueller?


When literally every weather event is linked to global warming, how could anyone argue against it?

Global warming is the new religion.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
1834. ncstorm
3:16 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
A quick update: the "I demand everyone stop talking about global warming and start talking about Sandy" comments are now outnumbering GW-related comments by 2-to-1, and Sandy-related comments by nearly 3-to-1. ;-)

Seriously, guys, if you care to talk about Sandy, please do so. No one is preventing you from doing just that. And if others discussing GW in the context of Sandy bothers you, please put them on ignore. That would be much better and far more effective than posting endless off-topic comments complaining about them and demanding they stop.

Thanks!


Dear Nea,

Dont you think right now the most important issue is Sandy and recovery efforts? You have posted off topic comments as well telling people to stop complaining..lets just all get along until Sandy has passed..Im sure you dont want people to put you on ignore because no one will be able to see your graphs, links, etc..if you want people to become aware of climate change or GW, pick your battles and dont alienate them..its a trying time right now with so much sadness for our friends in the Northeast.

Sincerely,
NCSTORM
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16083
1833. Methurricanes
3:16 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Cleveland has 30moh winds 40mpoh gusts right off the lake.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 701
1832. MonsterTrough
3:15 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
my ignore list is HUGE after the last 4 days.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 78
1831. TheThinker
3:15 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
The March Storm of 1962
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
1829. mehmattski
3:13 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Quoting zoomiami:


Really like all the links you have put up today. Where are you located?


I'm in Durham, NC. Originally from Sussex County, NJ, so I'm familiar with all the local stations in the NYC area. I recommend NJ.com for info on what's going on in New Jersey, it's an aggregator of newspaper sites from around the state. Happy to contribute to documenting the effects of Sandy!
Member Since: August 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
1828. hamlinij
3:13 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
It will be interesting to see possible revisions to how hurricanes are categorized in the future.

I don't look down upon the NHC - they did an absolutely terrific job of forecasting an utterly bizarre storm from the very beginning, and worked to prepare everyone for what they expected.

However, we've seen a trend with borderline hurricanes (in terms of wind speed) become huge storms. While they are not prototypical powerhouse hurricanes in terms of wind speed and vertical stacking, they have caused major damage and ultimately loss of life due to people judging them based on the "Category 1" moniker.

Again, I still feel like the NHC did a great job of telling people what to expect from the storm, so a lot of that responsiblity lies with the people and elected officials, but it will be interesting to see if this changes in the future to take more things into account.

Would be interested to see a Dr. Masters post on this for sure, or anyone else's opinions.
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
1827. WeatherNerdPR
3:13 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD WHILE
WEAKENING ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 78.4W
ABOUT 120 MILES...190 KM...ESE OF PITTSBURGH PENNSYLVANIA.
ABOUT 145 MILES...235KM...W OF PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...72 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.0 INCHES
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1826. Skyepony (Mod)
3:13 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
Quoting Methurricanes:
Can anyone find a water level gauge on Lake Erie?


WUndermap is a great place to find that. Here is the only one in red.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 196 Comments: 38769

Viewing: 1875 - 1825

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
43 °F
Overcast