Superstorm Sandy intensifying, bringing record storm surges

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:54 PM GMT on October 29, 2012

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The final countdown to Hurricane Sandy's arrival has begun, and this extraordinary and historic storm is already causing havoc all along the U.S. coast from North Carolina to Massachusetts. The scale of this massive storm truly earns Sandy the title of "superstorm". Sandy's tropical storm-force winds span an area of ocean 940 miles in diameter, and both North Carolina and the island of Bermuda, 700 miles to the east, are under tropical storm warnings. The region of ocean covered by 12-foot high seas spans an area of ocean an incredible 1560 miles in diameter. Winds near hurricane force are expected to affect waters from Virginia to Massachusetts today. Record storm surge flooding has already occurred in regions along the New Jersey coast this morning, and the highest water levels recorded in over a century of record keeping are expected over much of the New Jersey and New York coasts this evening during the 8 - 9 pm EDT high tide cycle. Sandy brought sustained winds of 60 mph and waves 30 feet high early this morning to the buoy east of Cape Hatteras, NC. A wind gust of 58 mph occurred at New York City's La Guardia Airport at 9:51 am EDT, and a buoy at Robins Reef, NJ recorded sustained winds of 42 mph, gusting to 55 mph. As of 8 am EDT, Sandy has dumped heavy rains of 7.87" at Cape Hatteras, NC; 4.01" at Ocean City, MD; 3.12" at Dover, DE; and 3.22" at Virginia Beach, VA. As of 9 am EDT, peak storm surge values of 5" were observed at Lewes, Delaware, 4.2' at Cape May, NJ, 4' at Atlantic City, NJ, 2.9' at Philadelphia, and 3.9' at New York City.

Latest data from the Hurricane Hunters shows that Sandy is intensifying as its core traverses the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. At 8 am EDT, an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found top winds of 98 mph in the heavy thunderstorms to the southwest of Sandy's center, at a point about 150 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. A dropsonde released in the eye measured a central pressure of 945 mb, but observed winds of 19 knots at the surface, so Sandy is probably a 943 mb hurricane that is very close to Category 2 strength. The Hurricane Hunters did not observe an eyewall, and saw very little temperature difference from inside to outside the eye, so Sandy is not going to be able to undergo rapid intensification. The storm could still see an increase of 5 mph in its winds before landfall tonight between 6 pm - 10 pm EDT, due, in part, to interaction with the low pressure system to its west that is pulling the hurricane towards the coast. The new, higher winds of Sandy don't have a lot of time to pile up additional storm surge water, so the NHC storm surge forecasts will probably not change today. But it is clear that Sandy is not going to pull its punch, and this superstorm is going to deliver a punishing multi-billion dollar blow to a huge area of the Eastern U.S.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Sandy.

Sandy already producing a record storm surge
The National Weather Service in Atlantic City, NJ said that isolated record storm surge flooding already occurred along portions of the New Jersey coast with this morning's 7:30 am EDT high tide cycle. As the tide goes out late this morning and this afternoon, water levels will fall, since the difference in water levels between low tide and high tide is about 5'. However, this evening, as the core of Sandy moves ashore, the storm will carry with it a gigantic bulge of water that will raise waters levels to the highest storm tides ever seen in over a century of record keeping, along much of the coastline of New Jersey and New York. The peak danger will be between 7 pm - 10 pm, when storm surge rides in on top of the high tide. The full moon is today, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month, adding another 2 - 3" to water levels. This morning's 9:30 am EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.9 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was record high: 5.8 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed since 1969, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy's storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' and a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy's storm surge is expected to be 10 - 12' above MLLW. Since a storm tide of 10.5' is needed to flood the subway system, it appears likely that portions of the NYC subway system will flood. The record highest storm tide at The Battery was 10.5', set on September 15, 1960, during Hurricane Donna.


Figure 2. Observed storm tide (red line) and predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at The Battery on the south shore of Manhattan, New York City, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory (green line) and the NYHOPS model from the Stevens Institute of Technology (pink curve), which uses a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows. These models have a storm surge of 5 - 6', which brings the maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--to 11' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.) Irene brought a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to The Battery in 2011. At a storm tide of 10.5', water will likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. The NWS in NYC is predicting a 10 - 12' storm tide at The Battery during tonight's 9 pm high tide cycle.


Figure 3. Observed storm tide (red line) and predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at Atlantic City, New Jersey, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory (green line) and the NYHOPS model from the Stevens Institute of Technology (pink curve), which uses a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows. These models predict a maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--of ' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.) Irene brought a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to The Battery in 2011. At a storm tide of 10.5', water will likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. The NWS in Atlantic City is predicting a 9.5' storm tide for the city during tonight's 8 pm high tide cycle, which would be the highest water levels ever observed in Atlantic City.

Links for Sandy
To find out if you need to evacuate, please contact your local emergency management office. They will have the latest information. People living in New York City can find their evacuation zone here or use this map. FEMA has information on preparing for hurricanes.

People with disabilities and caregivers seeking information on accessible shelter and transportation can contact portlight.org

Atlantic City beach cam

Ocean City, MD webcam

Statue of Liberty cam

An impressive 1-minute resolution satellite loop of Sandy today is at the CSU RAMMB website.

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Late Season Tropical Storms that have affected the U.S. north of Hatteras. He also has a post, Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

Hurricane Sandy info from NASA.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Storm Surge prediction model from the Stevens Institute of Technology, which use a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows.

Research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook for New York City.

Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Sandy 1 (gwegret)
Post-Hurricane Sandy waves pound the Deerfield Beach, FL fishing pier!
Hurricane Sandy 1
Hurricane Sandy Long Neck Delaware (mal247)
On Rehoboth Bay
Hurricane Sandy Long Neck Delaware

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In case anyone is still confused here is the CORRECT 5 pm information from the public advisory, as opposed to the forecast discussion.


Hurricane SANDY Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

US Watch/Warning

000
WTNT33 KNHC 292058
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...SANDY MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.8N 74.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Holy moley, hurricane force winds are about to be over the D.C Metro Area! It's only a matter of time now before the power goes out.
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Quoting goalexgo:
It is an old advisory. It is certainly not moving NNW. It is moving due west.



Its the official 5 pm discussion. Go read it yourself on the website if you don't believe me.


As for the direction they apparently got that and quite bit else wrong, which is why I posted the updated public advisory which has the correct information.

Not sure why they messed up the discussion. Maybe they'll fix it.
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Quoting MontanaZephyr:
How long will the gazebo top last...?

Link


If you hadn't said it was a gazebo top, I'd never have known what I was looking at. I'm guessing there's a pier under all that water?
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1128. acl8610
Quoting LesBonsTemps:


11' is a done deal, extrapolating data. 12' is more likely.

i very much agree with that
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Battery now at 8.2'
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Quoting DataNerd:


That is the 5 pm advisory. They probably saw no need to write much else into it.
It is an old advisory. It is certainly not moving NNW. It is moving due west.
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1124. Gaara
Sustained winds REALLY picking up here in Milford. Expecting power loss within an hour or two.
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omg, why are there always idiots in the streets dancing during these storms? just seen it on CNN behind Ali whatever his name is in Atlantic city!
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Battery at 8.2
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Landfall expected by 6PM, at Cape May
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Quoting centex:
Where is cantori when we need him?


doing push ups
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Link


Updated Wind Graphic.
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1118. Msdrown
TWC just reported fallen/damaged sky crane in NYC.

All of guys please stay safe. It's times like this when I pray and you guys are in mine.
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1117. seataka
Quoting MZT:
Go browsing the weather observations around the country and it's amazing how far west Sandy is affecting weather patterns. Even Alabama and Michigan make mention of high winds in the discussion. This is what EPIC means.


A storm affecting the weather from maine, to bermuda, to alabama and chicago.. amazing!

I'm 60 miles SE of Augusta, near Savannah River here. Last three days have been the breeziest of the season, and we got below 40 degrees last night, which was not expected for a few more weeks here, which means some of our seed crops have to be taken in a few weeks early as the plants start to fall over in the high 30's.

Did note quite an oddity 3 days ago, there were two big circles around the moon, one normal, concentric with the moon circle, but a 2nd circle which was offset to the north half the diameter of the normal looking big 1st ring around the moon.I called the wife and kids out to look, I'm 62 and I've never seen anything like that, neither had anyone else here. There was nothing visible in the center of the 2nd circle.

And thank you folks for the extremely illuminating postings. Ya'll stay safe.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They changed the times and advisory number, but that discussion is from 11am.


That is the 5 pm advisory. They probably saw no need to write much else into it.
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Recon/ NHC confirming

Sandy remains a tropical cyclone


Won't transition till landfall. It certainly tried to.
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Quoting DataNerd:
1. Hurricane Central@twc_hurricaneWater to roofs of cars in Riverhead, Long Island. #Sandy


2. NHC 5 pm advisory

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

SANDY IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER...WITH BOTH AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
AND VARIOUS MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATING A 20 N MI DIAMETER
EYE HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 94 KT IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT...AND
SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WINDS OF 80-83 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT MORE THAN 90 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE
AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN A
LITTLE...TO ABOUT 943 MB. BASED ON THE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT.

RECONNAISSANCE CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT SANDY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR ABOUT
330/16 KT. THE LATEST RECON FIXES HAVE BEEN FALLING ON THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK...AND SO HAVE THE LATEST 12Z NHC FORECAST MODELS.
THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY PREVIOUS TRACK
OR REASONING ARE REQUIRED. SANDY IS NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE AXIS
OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE
HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON. LANDFALL ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
EVENING...AT WHICH TIME A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED.
AFTER MOVING INLAND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. BY 48 HOURS...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND
LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCN.

SANDY IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING A NARROW RIDGE OF WARM SSTS AROUND
27C...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF STREAM. THIS EXTRA
LOW-LEVEL HEAT INPUT HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT INCREASE
IN CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE. HOWEVER...SANDY WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULFSTREAM WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS...WHICH
WILL BRING A HALT TO ANY SIGNIFICANT INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
OVERALL INTENSITY OR THE SIZE OF THE EXTREMELY LARGE WIND FIELD
THAT IS NOW MORE THAN 1000 N MI IN DIAMETER. AT THE MOMENT...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT WELL-DEFINED WARM AND COLD FRONTS LIE
VERY NEAR THE CENTER OF SANDY...AND THE COMBINATION OF COLDER OCEAN
WATER AND NEARBY FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE REACHES
THE COAST. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE
OVERALL IMPACTS FROM WINDS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE... AND FLOODING RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DANGEROUS
WEATHER SYSTEM. BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER LANDFALL.

INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE CENTER OR THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SINCE STRONG WINDS COVER AN AREA
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ACROSS...AND THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL NOT
NECESSARILY BE NEAR THE CENTER...ESPECIALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE
CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 38.8N 74.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 39.8N 76.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 30/1800Z 40.4N 78.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 31/0600Z 41.3N 78.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/1800Z 42.8N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 01/1800Z 45.1N 75.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1800Z 46.3N 72.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1800Z 47.5N 65.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

NNNN

They changed the times and advisory number, but that discussion is from 11am.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This no longer tropical, no rain around this thing anywhere out there

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1112. centex
Quoting Dakster:
The battery broke 8'...

Where is cantori when we need him?
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Public

TNT33 KNHC 292058
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...SANDY MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.8N 74.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HOWEVER...THERE ARE NON-TROPICAL HIGH-WIND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST
BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. THIS
INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF
THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER
WEATHER RADARS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 38.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST.
SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/H.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY COAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHORTLY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SANDY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
485 MILES...780 KM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
OCCURRING FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LONG ISLAND AND LONG
ISLAND SOUND...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY...
DELAWARE...AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND INCLUDING ALL OF THE
CHESAPEAKE AND DELAWARE BAYS. HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATORS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. A HAM RADIO OPERATOR
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 64 MPH...103 KM/H...WITH GUST
TO 86 MPH...138 KM/H IN WESTERLY RHODE ISLAND...AND ANOTHER HAM
RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 76 MPH...122 KM/H IN
BARNSTABLE MASSACHUSETTS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM THE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD
TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO SPREAD OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE REACHED THE
SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...FROM CONNECTICUT SOUTHWARD TO NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF
HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...3 TO 5 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES
OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE
BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AT 700 AND 900 PM EDT...AND
WHEN LANDFALL OCCURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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1110. acl8610
Still Tropical....
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 292058
TCDAT3

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

SANDY IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER...WITH BOTH AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
AND VARIOUS MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATING A 20 N MI DIAMETER
EYE HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 94 KT IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT...AND
SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WINDS OF 80-83 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT MORE THAN 90 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE
AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN A
LITTLE...TO ABOUT 943 MB. BASED ON THE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT.

RECONNAISSANCE CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT SANDY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR ABOUT
330/16 KT. THE LATEST RECON FIXES HAVE BEEN FALLING ON THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK...AND SO HAVE THE LATEST 12Z NHC FORECAST MODELS.
THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY PREVIOUS TRACK
OR REASONING ARE REQUIRED. SANDY IS NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE AXIS
OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE
HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON. LANDFALL ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
EVENING...AT WHICH TIME A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED.
AFTER MOVING INLAND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. BY 48 HOURS...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND
LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCN.

SANDY IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING A NARROW RIDGE OF WARM SSTS AROUND
27C...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF STREAM. THIS EXTRA
LOW-LEVEL HEAT INPUT HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT INCREASE
IN CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE. HOWEVER...SANDY WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULFSTREAM WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS...WHICH
WILL BRING A HALT TO ANY SIGNIFICANT INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
OVERALL INTENSITY OR THE SIZE OF THE EXTREMELY LARGE WIND FIELD
THAT IS NOW MORE THAN 1000 N MI IN DIAMETER. AT THE MOMENT...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT WELL-DEFINED WARM AND COLD FRONTS LIE
VERY NEAR THE CENTER OF SANDY...AND THE COMBINATION OF COLDER OCEAN
WATER AND NEARBY FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE REACHES
THE COAST. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE
OVERALL IMPACTS FROM WINDS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE... AND FLOODING RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DANGEROUS
WEATHER SYSTEM. BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER LANDFALL.

INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE CENTER OR THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SINCE STRONG WINDS COVER AN AREA
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ACROSS...AND THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL NOT
NECESSARILY BE NEAR THE CENTER...ESPECIALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE
CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 38.8N 74.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 39.8N 76.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 30/1800Z 40.4N 78.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 31/0600Z 41.3N 78.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/1800Z 42.8N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 01/1800Z 45.1N 75.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1800Z 46.3N 72.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1800Z 47.5N 65.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Quoting Dakster:
The battery has already hit 8' earlier today... Currently 7.75 FT and pressure down to 967.0 MB.

This could be the push to 11'... hopefully not... Hopefully an early arrival means it beats high tide.



11' is a done deal, extrapolating data. 12' is more likely.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9706
1106. Dakster
The battery broke 8'...

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1105. zawxdsk
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
As reported by TWC.
Radar shows the transformation of the storm (non tropical). You can see a frontal boundry (separating tropical air from cold air) formation on radar along the coast.


Definitely agreed. In fact if you take a look at the surface obs below, you could draw a big time back door warm front from Cape May, NJ to Harrisburg and Williamsport, PA up to the west of Syracuse, NY and extending up to across Lake Ontario curving up into Quebec.

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Sandy is still a hurricane.
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1. Hurricane Central@twc_hurricaneWater to roofs of cars in Riverhead, Long Island. #Sandy


2. NHC 5 pm advisory

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

SANDY IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER...WITH BOTH AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
AND VARIOUS MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATING A 20 N MI DIAMETER
EYE HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 94 KT IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT...AND
SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WINDS OF 80-83 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT MORE THAN 90 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE
AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN A
LITTLE...TO ABOUT 943 MB. BASED ON THE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT.

RECONNAISSANCE CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT SANDY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR ABOUT
330/16 KT. THE LATEST RECON FIXES HAVE BEEN FALLING ON THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK...AND SO HAVE THE LATEST 12Z NHC FORECAST MODELS.
THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY PREVIOUS TRACK
OR REASONING ARE REQUIRED. SANDY IS NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE AXIS
OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE
HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON. LANDFALL ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
EVENING...AT WHICH TIME A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED.
AFTER MOVING INLAND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. BY 48 HOURS...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND
LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCN.

SANDY IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING A NARROW RIDGE OF WARM SSTS AROUND
27C...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF STREAM. THIS EXTRA
LOW-LEVEL HEAT INPUT HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT INCREASE
IN CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE. HOWEVER...SANDY WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULFSTREAM WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS...WHICH
WILL BRING A HALT TO ANY SIGNIFICANT INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
OVERALL INTENSITY OR THE SIZE OF THE EXTREMELY LARGE WIND FIELD
THAT IS NOW MORE THAN 1000 N MI IN DIAMETER. AT THE MOMENT...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT WELL-DEFINED WARM AND COLD FRONTS LIE
VERY NEAR THE CENTER OF SANDY...AND THE COMBINATION OF COLDER OCEAN
WATER AND NEARBY FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE REACHES
THE COAST. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE
OVERALL IMPACTS FROM WINDS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE... AND FLOODING RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DANGEROUS
WEATHER SYSTEM. BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER LANDFALL.

INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE CENTER OR THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SINCE STRONG WINDS COVER AN AREA
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ACROSS...AND THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL NOT
NECESSARILY BE NEAR THE CENTER...ESPECIALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE
CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 38.8N 74.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 39.8N 76.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 30/1800Z 40.4N 78.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 31/0600Z 41.3N 78.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/1800Z 42.8N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 01/1800Z 45.1N 75.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1800Z 46.3N 72.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1800Z 47.5N 65.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

NNNN
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1102. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
18L/PTH/S/CXX
...LANDFALL...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


For the semi-ignorant amongst us, is this showing the storm's center now very close to moving ashore if not actually in the process?
Member Since: September 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
Berm breach on Long Beach, water beginning to start flooding the town, still 2 hours to high tide..
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Quoting MontanaZephyr:
How long will the gazebo top last...?

Link


Hah I've been watching this one all day and half an hour ago it lost it's white sideboards. I'm waiting for the roof to go.
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1098. Dakster
Quoting DataNerd:



Can you link me to where you guys are getting this live gauge data?


Yes.

http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/

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1097. ncstorm
Quoting Kristina40:


It is NOT landfall of Sandy. What part of "it won't be ashore for 3-5 hours" is so difficult to understand for some people?


LOL..the 4pm discussion from the NHC..sandy was 55 miles from land and going 28 mph..she would have to stop and sit there doing loops for 4 hours and then come in as you stated..okay, im really leaving..hoping for the best for those in the path of Sandy!

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.6N 74.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14567
Should have our final pre landfall vortex data message shortly.

Looks landfall is going to be around 4:30 or 5 central time.
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Water rising fairly quickly in Central LI.
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Remember to add movement speed to sustained wind speed to calculate potential for gusts
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Quoting Kristina40:


It is NOT landfall of Sandy. What part of "it won't be ashore for 3-5 hours" is so difficult to understand for some people?


TWC just showed the tropical center (if the storm had an eye) is currently moving on shore near Deleware Bay.
He just showed how its clear now off shore.

But the storm is huge and the broad circulation will bring storm surge to N.Y this evening because of the change of wind direction (not the center moving on shore) to onshore.
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NY constructin crane collapse / hanging in 75mph wind.... Apartments already sold up to 90million each....

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9706
To clear up some misonceptions:

Despite the current appearance of the storm Recon still indicates it is a warm core system with a well defined center.



In case anyone was confused on that.
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Quoting MZT:Hopefully this event will NOT be topped in our lifetimes.


Last year Irene now Sandy the following year. With climate change you will get more of the bad stuff.
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Hey, if she's moving faster, great. Anything short of the worst is just fine, but what anyone with some sense and background knows is the period of time between now and 6 am is going to be horrendous for a 600 mile section of the coast and inland.

Just was out trying to work on my drainage ditch pipe. I give up, too much wind ooming up. Never seen this much water on my property in Frederick County, MD. Wind is getting cranked and will hear trees go down all night long. In the dark.
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New wind report:

"Hurricane Central@twc_hurricaneRT @mchesterfield26: Plum Island, NY....gust to 84MPH..... #Sandy"
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How long will the gazebo top last...?

Link
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The upper level energy looks like it is really getting to the CDO thing now. When that comes down, I have no idea what will happen, but there is a good chance that it might not be good...

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
Quoting Velocity23:


Thats just down the beach from my beach house. It's called "Margaritaville". This isn't the first time they lost their pool...



What's up with the stairs to nowhere in the background just behind broken pool pic? Is there a missing house?
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Water rising faster.






Can you link me to where you guys are getting this live gauge data?
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NY Battery now at 7.91'
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1082. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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