Superstorm Sandy intensifying, bringing record storm surges

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:54 PM GMT on October 29, 2012

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The final countdown to Hurricane Sandy's arrival has begun, and this extraordinary and historic storm is already causing havoc all along the U.S. coast from North Carolina to Massachusetts. The scale of this massive storm truly earns Sandy the title of "superstorm". Sandy's tropical storm-force winds span an area of ocean 940 miles in diameter, and both North Carolina and the island of Bermuda, 700 miles to the east, are under tropical storm warnings. The region of ocean covered by 12-foot high seas spans an area of ocean an incredible 1560 miles in diameter. Winds near hurricane force are expected to affect waters from Virginia to Massachusetts today. Record storm surge flooding has already occurred in regions along the New Jersey coast this morning, and the highest water levels recorded in over a century of record keeping are expected over much of the New Jersey and New York coasts this evening during the 8 - 9 pm EDT high tide cycle. Sandy brought sustained winds of 60 mph and waves 30 feet high early this morning to the buoy east of Cape Hatteras, NC. A wind gust of 58 mph occurred at New York City's La Guardia Airport at 9:51 am EDT, and a buoy at Robins Reef, NJ recorded sustained winds of 42 mph, gusting to 55 mph. As of 8 am EDT, Sandy has dumped heavy rains of 7.87" at Cape Hatteras, NC; 4.01" at Ocean City, MD; 3.12" at Dover, DE; and 3.22" at Virginia Beach, VA. As of 9 am EDT, peak storm surge values of 5" were observed at Lewes, Delaware, 4.2' at Cape May, NJ, 4' at Atlantic City, NJ, 2.9' at Philadelphia, and 3.9' at New York City.

Latest data from the Hurricane Hunters shows that Sandy is intensifying as its core traverses the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. At 8 am EDT, an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found top winds of 98 mph in the heavy thunderstorms to the southwest of Sandy's center, at a point about 150 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. A dropsonde released in the eye measured a central pressure of 945 mb, but observed winds of 19 knots at the surface, so Sandy is probably a 943 mb hurricane that is very close to Category 2 strength. The Hurricane Hunters did not observe an eyewall, and saw very little temperature difference from inside to outside the eye, so Sandy is not going to be able to undergo rapid intensification. The storm could still see an increase of 5 mph in its winds before landfall tonight between 6 pm - 10 pm EDT, due, in part, to interaction with the low pressure system to its west that is pulling the hurricane towards the coast. The new, higher winds of Sandy don't have a lot of time to pile up additional storm surge water, so the NHC storm surge forecasts will probably not change today. But it is clear that Sandy is not going to pull its punch, and this superstorm is going to deliver a punishing multi-billion dollar blow to a huge area of the Eastern U.S.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Sandy.

Sandy already producing a record storm surge
The National Weather Service in Atlantic City, NJ said that isolated record storm surge flooding already occurred along portions of the New Jersey coast with this morning's 7:30 am EDT high tide cycle. As the tide goes out late this morning and this afternoon, water levels will fall, since the difference in water levels between low tide and high tide is about 5'. However, this evening, as the core of Sandy moves ashore, the storm will carry with it a gigantic bulge of water that will raise waters levels to the highest storm tides ever seen in over a century of record keeping, along much of the coastline of New Jersey and New York. The peak danger will be between 7 pm - 10 pm, when storm surge rides in on top of the high tide. The full moon is today, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month, adding another 2 - 3" to water levels. This morning's 9:30 am EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.9 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was record high: 5.8 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed since 1969, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy's storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' and a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy's storm surge is expected to be 10 - 12' above MLLW. Since a storm tide of 10.5' is needed to flood the subway system, it appears likely that portions of the NYC subway system will flood. The record highest storm tide at The Battery was 10.5', set on September 15, 1960, during Hurricane Donna.


Figure 2. Observed storm tide (red line) and predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at The Battery on the south shore of Manhattan, New York City, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory (green line) and the NYHOPS model from the Stevens Institute of Technology (pink curve), which uses a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows. These models have a storm surge of 5 - 6', which brings the maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--to 11' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.) Irene brought a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to The Battery in 2011. At a storm tide of 10.5', water will likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. The NWS in NYC is predicting a 10 - 12' storm tide at The Battery during tonight's 9 pm high tide cycle.


Figure 3. Observed storm tide (red line) and predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at Atlantic City, New Jersey, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory (green line) and the NYHOPS model from the Stevens Institute of Technology (pink curve), which uses a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows. These models predict a maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--of ' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.) Irene brought a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to The Battery in 2011. At a storm tide of 10.5', water will likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. The NWS in Atlantic City is predicting a 9.5' storm tide for the city during tonight's 8 pm high tide cycle, which would be the highest water levels ever observed in Atlantic City.

Links for Sandy
To find out if you need to evacuate, please contact your local emergency management office. They will have the latest information. People living in New York City can find their evacuation zone here or use this map. FEMA has information on preparing for hurricanes.

People with disabilities and caregivers seeking information on accessible shelter and transportation can contact portlight.org

Atlantic City beach cam

Ocean City, MD webcam

Statue of Liberty cam

An impressive 1-minute resolution satellite loop of Sandy today is at the CSU RAMMB website.

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Late Season Tropical Storms that have affected the U.S. north of Hatteras. He also has a post, Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

Hurricane Sandy info from NASA.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Storm Surge prediction model from the Stevens Institute of Technology, which use a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows.

Research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook for New York City.

Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Sandy 1 (gwegret)
Post-Hurricane Sandy waves pound the Deerfield Beach, FL fishing pier!
Hurricane Sandy 1
Hurricane Sandy Long Neck Delaware (mal247)
On Rehoboth Bay
Hurricane Sandy Long Neck Delaware

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Quoting SSideBrac:


Not at all a blame game - their behaviour and ignorance could very well put Rescuers and 1st Responders lives at risk.
Somehow, the message has to be pushed home to such people.


Only weather nerds really follow the weather, particular commercial interests aside maybe. For most people, keeping up with 'the weather' is about as high priority as keeping up with the Tiawanese Girls' volleyball standings.
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Quoting DrewE:


This poster is about 30 miles north of me, and I am experiencing the exact same conditions. Wind gusts of tropical storm force and becoming more and more common place.


Cool Drew where are you? Southern Chesterfield?
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Quoting tropicfreak:
Here in Richmond VA we've been hammered since this morning. Winds are coming in gusts but not very consistent wind. Having a really heavy rain band bringing TS force gusts. Wish me luck and hope I don't lose power... that will be hard to come by later this evening. Pouring outside though.

Imo, based on it's current trajectory I am saying a landfall in Delaware seems likely. That's not good though, puts me in seeing near hurricane force gusts. Hanging on in here, hope all is well by the end.

Pressure on my weather station has dipped below 29.00 inches, the first time it has ever done so in my nearly 2 years of ownership. Now at 28.97. That's 981 mb if you convert it.

Wish me luck as I'm hanging in there!


Thanks for the update from my birthplace. Stay indoors and stay safe!
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Anyone watching the HH heading into storm? Picked up a low wind spot south west of the center. Similar location to one found by the HH heading home. Can anyone explain what that is and why?
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We are getting pounded here in VB with rain. Think we'll see much wind?
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Quoting oracle28:


Anyone that takes Facebook posts seriously, needs an evaluation.

That's a good point actually. These are friends and family saying this who have been saying it in person as well. I just think its frustrating for those who have lost so much, have lost their lives, etc. And it happens every time there is a storm, anywhere. Not sure why it aggravates me so much.
Member Since: September 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 141
526. DrewE
Quoting tropicfreak:
Here in Richmond VA we've been hammered since this morning. Winds are coming in gusts but not very consistent wind. Having a really heavy rain band bringing TS force gusts. Wish me luck and hope I don't lose power... that will be hard to come by later this evening. Pouring outside though.

Imo, based on it's current trajectory I am saying a landfall in Delaware seems likely. That's not good though, puts me in seeing near hurricane force gusts. Hanging on in here, hope all is well by the end.

Pressure on my weather station has dipped below 29.00 inches, the first time it has ever done so in my nearly 2 years of ownership. Now at 28.97. That's 981 mb if you convert it.

Wish me luck as I'm hanging in there!


This poster is about 30 miles north of me, and I am experiencing the exact same conditions. Wind gusts of tropical storm force and becoming more and more common place.
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
pressure here in nj has dipped to 974mb


I'm at 980 here in B-more
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Surge now 4.66 at the Battery
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 701
Quoting SyriboTigereyes:


A friend sent me this from Levittown. We are "only" getting gusts around 40mph and the trees are already coming up in Nassau County in places. Wow.


My daughter is in Middletown.
How bad is it?
Cheers
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Quoting jerseybreakfast:
It is so strange to be hunkering down for a hurricane in such cool, breezy fall weather. I'm in inland Northern Jersey and doing a LOT of watchful waiting. We've had some rain, but not a torrential amount. The winds have gusting pretty strongly off and on. That's my biggest concern up here.
you will get more once she comes ashore, and maybe even more as she turns northward..stay safe up there
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Quoting wolftribe2009:


it isn't only washington DC. I am hearing people out all along the east coast. The fact that people are allowed in ZONE A In NYC right now is beyond me. I think that is where Jim Cantore told us he was located.
I just hope the death toll isn't high.Could get reaaaaly ugly.I heard about people waiting till the last minute to evacuate but were trapped by rising water.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Sandy is defiantly still tropical, if anything it looks more and more tropical as time goes on.

It's too late for hurricane warnings, but with all the doom and gloom they're promising on the news, I think everyone is treating this with their full attention.

Maybe it's good we "hype".
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2553
Quoting Swede38:
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I'll confirm what Washingtonian is saying, just seen the first reported storm outage in Arlington.
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looks like that center is going to hit the delmar instead of central nj
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It is so strange to be hunkering down for a hurricane in such cool, breezy fall weather. I'm in inland Northern Jersey and doing a LOT of watchful waiting. We've had some rain, but not a torrential amount. The winds have gusting pretty strongly off and on. That's my biggest concern up here.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
People still on the streets in downtown D.C as conditions continue to rapidly deteriorate.Stores starting to close down except for super markets but I expect that to close down in about two hours.People here in D.C think we'll be safe and Sandy will be nothing to worry about.Have they forgotten about Isabel?.


BREAKING:Power beginning to go out in places I probably only have two hours in a half left of it before mine goes out with this high gust.


Washingtonian115, You stay safe and be careful. Look forward to hearing from you when you can if your power goes out. Where saying prayers for ev1 on the East Coast and inland.

sheri
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Local live New York News.



Link
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WAH!
95f at noon here.
Humidity 56%
Heat Index 105F

what happened to the Rainy Season?
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Quoting oddspeed:


From north and east of Toronto, Canada: See that second blue spike up through Lake Ontario with the yellow core? It just threw rain to hit my north-facing windows that are 5 feet under an overhang. Never had that happen before.
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Quoting Methurricanes:
There's a band that right now is just past I-90 that appears to have TS force winds behind (south) of it.

The east/NE side is filling in with some bands, we'll end up getting in on those:



It shows up better on a loop.
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Sandy is defiantly still tropical, if anything it looks more and more tropical as time goes on.

It's too late for hurricane warnings, but with all the doom and gloom they're promising on the news, I think everyone is treating this with their full attention.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24550
I think it interesting that all these people are playing and taking pictures of the waves out at the beaches in the hurricane warning areas. It doesn't look like people are all that afraid of this system.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8958
pressure here in nj has dipped to 974mb
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...SANDY TO BRING NEAR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND FLOOD-PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...

THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE GREATER BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
METROPOLITAN AREAS, INCLUDING THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER, MARYLAND FROM THE WESTERN
SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY TO GARRETT COUNTY, NORTHERN VIRGINIA,
AND EXTREME EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE OBJECTIVE OF THIS STATEMENT IS
TO PROVIDE A SINGLE PRODUCT THAT INTEGRATES THE WARNING PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.

SANDY LOCAL STATEMENTS WILL BE RELEASED EVERY 6 HOURS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AT THE FOLLOWING RELEASE TIMES: 11 PM...5 AM...
11 AM...AND 5 PM.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 37.5N...LONGITUDE 71.5W. THIS WAS ABOUT 315 MILES EAST
OF WASHINGTON DC. SANDY WAS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH...WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 MPH. SANDY IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST EARLY TONIGHT...WITH
A LITTLE STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. SANDY WILL
SEVERELY IMPACT THE REGION WELL BEFORE IT COMES ASHORE.

SUMMARY OF THREATS
------------------
* THE MAIN IMMEDIATE THREATS FOR SANDY WILL BE STRONG WINDS
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES AND POWER/COMMUNICATIONS
OUTAGES...AND HEAVY RAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE
FLOODING OF LOCAL STREAMS AND CREEKS.
* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WHERE 18 TO 24 INCHES ARE FORECAST.
* MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR...STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON ON SMALLER WATERSHEDS WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLOODING ON
THE MAIN-STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE POTOMAC AND THE SHENANDOAH.

CHANGES SINCE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT
----------------------------------
* THE TIMING OF THE PEAK WINDS FROM SANDY ARE NOW EXPECTED FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.
* RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN INCREASED. THE GREATER BALTIMORE
METRO AREA IS NOW FORECAST TO RECEIVE 8 TO 12 INCHES OF
RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
* THE POTOMAC RIVER IS LIKELY TO GO INTO FLOOD STAGE BEGINNING
AROUND WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH WINDS
----------
* WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY TODAY...WITH THE MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS
OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
* GENERALLY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
* HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 AND POSSIBLY 80 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT A REGION LOCATED BETWEEN BEL AIR MD...POINT
LOOKOUT MD...AND HAGERSTOWN MD BETWEEN 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
TUESDAY. THIS INCLUDES THE GREATER BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON
METROPOLITAN AREAS.
* COUPLED WITH HEAVY RAINS FROM SANDY...THE HIGH WINDS WILL RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE.

RAINFALL AND FLOODING
---------------------
* 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL MD
INCLUDING THE BALTIMORE METRO AREA AND ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF
THE BAY.
* 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FREDERICK...
WASHINGTON AND FREDERICKSBURG METRO AREAS.
* 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
VIRGINIA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DC METRO COUNTIES...AS WELL
AS WESTERN MARYLAND WEST OF HANCOCK MD.
* THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXTENSIVE AND DANGEROUS
FLOODING OF LOCAL STREAMS AND CREEKS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND
LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY.

MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING
------------------------
* THE POTOMAC RIVER WILL LIKELY START FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
* THE MONOCACY RIVER IS FORECAST TO FLOOD LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE
TO BE IN MAJOR FLOOD THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. LEVELS FORECAST
HAVE NOT BEEN SEEN SINCE AGNES IN 1972.

COASTAL FLOODING
----------------
* WITH THE FULL MOON ON MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE ALREADY
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. COUNTER TO THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...STRONG NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
TODAY WILL CAUSE A BLOW-OUT TIDE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TODAY. EAST FACING BEACHES
ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC WILL EXPERIENCE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES THAT
WILL GIVE THE APPEARANCE OF TIDAL FLOODING AND RESULT IN SIMILAR
IMPACTS.
* AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY...WATER WILL RETURN BACK
INTO THE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC AND BEGIN TO PILE UP IN THE BAY
NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE TIDAL
POTOMAC AND ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES.
* THE HIGHEST TIDES FOR MOST WILL BE WITH THE HIGH TIDES TUESDAY.

SNOWFALL
--------
* IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS ABOVE 2000 FEET HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED.
* THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND AND HEAVY WET SNOW WILL DOWN TREE
LIMBS AND POWER LINES. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH
VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO IN PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW.
* THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OVER 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE 18 TO
24 INCHES BETWEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* BE PREPARED FOR EXTENDED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.
* IF YOU LIVE NEAR LARGE TREES...REMAIN IN THE LOWER LEVEL OF YOUR
HOME OR SEEK SHELTER ELSEWHERE IF POSSIBLE AND RIDE SANDY OUT.
* REFRAIN FROM ANY UNNECESSARY TRAVEL.
* ENSURE LOOSE ITEMS ON YOUR PROPERTY ARE SECURED.
* IF POWER LINES ARE DOWN...STAY AWAY FROM THEM AND REPORT IT TO YOUR
LOCAL ELECTRICAL UTILITY COMPANY.
* IF YOU SHOULD HAVE EMERGENCY TRAVEL...IF YOU COME UPON FLOODED
ROADWAYS DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SUBMERGED ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND
AND DON`T DROWN.
* IF YOU USE A PORTABLE POWER GENERATOR...PLEASE FOLLOW
MANUFACTURERS INSTRUCTIONS AND ENSURE THAT IT IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED.
* DO NOT USE CHARCOAL GRILLS IN ENCLOSED AREAS.
* MARINERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT THERE IS ENOUGH SLACK LINE IN THEIR
BOAT`S MOORINGS TO ACCEPT A BLOW OUT TIDE TODAY AND HIGH TIDES
TUESDAY.
* PERIODICALLY CHECK ON YOUR ELDERLY NEIGHBORS AND FAMILY MEMBERS
TO ENSURE THEY ARE SAFE.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AT 5 PM EDT
TODAY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$


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Here in Richmond VA we've been hammered since this morning. Winds are coming in gusts but not very consistent wind. Having a really heavy rain band bringing TS force gusts. Wish me luck and hope I don't lose power... that will be hard to come by later this evening. Pouring outside though.

Imo, based on it's current trajectory I am saying a landfall in Delaware seems likely. That's not good though, puts me in seeing near hurricane force gusts. Hanging on in here, hope all is well by the end.

Pressure on my weather station has dipped below 29.00 inches, the first time it has ever done so in my nearly 2 years of ownership. Now at 28.97. That's 981 mb if you convert it.

Wish me luck as I'm hanging in there!
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Quoting breeezee:
looks really disorganized from a true warm core type tropical system,but saying that the pressure at 27.81 in if it was a total warm core system in the gulf we would be looking at winds approaching 150mph


Its not exactly a matter of warm core vs cold core, or east coast vs gulf coast. It's a matter of storm size, and thus, pressure gradient force. A warm-core storm of this size with similar pressure would have similar winds.
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Quoting LargoFl:

Almost looks like its moving due west.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2553
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


That's a photoshopped picture (and badly done, as well). The supercell is a photo taken from the severe outbreak caused by Hurricane Ivan. It is often circulated as "proof" that UFO's are causing an increase in severe weather. It is actually quite a famous photo for that hoax. Loading it up into photoshop and separating the layers, you can see that whoever did this only spent about 10 minutes on it. I'm disappointed.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
People still on the streets in downtown D.C as conditions continue to rapidly deteriorate.Stores starting to close down except for super markets but I expect that to close down in about two hours.People here in D.C think we'll be safe and Sandy will be nothing to worry about.Have they forgotten about Isabel?.


BREAKING:Power beginning to go out in places I probably only have two hours in a half left of it before mine goes out with this high gust.


it isn't only washington DC. I am hearing people out all along the east coast. The fact that people are allowed in ZONE A In NYC right now is beyond me. I think that is where Jim Cantore told us he was located.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752


A friend sent me this from Levittown. We are "only" getting gusts around 40mph and the trees are already coming up in Nassau County in places. Wow.
Member Since: September 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 141
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Quoting HurricaneLovr75:
Winds here in South shore, MA getting much stronger now. Prob up to 35-40 mph
There's a band that right now is just past I-90 that appears to have TS force winds behind (south) of it.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 701
Quoting pottery:
Good to see everyone taking a break from Sandy, to debate a picture....


lol pottery...i know right? how many times do we need to see its a fake...
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497. Skyepony (Mod)
Surge alone at battery Park, not including tide has been coming in over 1 ft higher than forecast.


Surge plus tide has been forecast for 11 ft..add in the error we've been seeing ~12 1/2ft at the Battery is likely..

edited~ I took down the images because the servers it's coming from is overloaded. The pics are at the link though.
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Pressure still dropping in Newport News, VA. Now at 988mb.
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Quoting SyriboTigereyes:
I am getting SO annoyed by certain people on FB with their "Bring it on Sandy, nothing is happening here. This is so boring. This storm is all hype". Are you kidding me? My father just talked to the owner of our boat dock. The water already is up above two cinder blocks high that the boats out of the water are on. They are all on THREE cinder blocks. So tonight, they are going to be floating all over. Into his house, into other boats, into the open water.

Towns are already flooded and she is still not here yet. It's so frustrating. Just like during Irene. "I didn't even lose power, this storm was just hype". Really? Because 500,000 other people on Long Island lost power.. but I guess since you didn't, the storm wasn't a big deal at all. It seems so selfish to think that just because you didn't have damage to your property or power outage, that the storm was "nothing".


Anyone that takes Facebook posts seriously, needs an evaluation.
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Quoting breeezee:
looks really disorganized from a true warm core type tropical system,but saying that the pressure at 27.81 in if it was a total warm core system in the gulf we would be looking at winds approaching 150mph



Yeah, pressure does not match wind speeds for a tropical system.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8958
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In Haverhill, MASS, about 16 miles from the coast and about 60 feet up from the Merrimack River. Out of the 'cone,' and have been experiencing steady 10-12 mph winds with gusts, so far, up to 25-30mph, and constant mist/rain since last night. My father-in-Law has a 'police/fire' scanner, and so far I have heard one report of a downed tree. The forecast for my area is to have direct impact of Sandy tomorrow and Wednesday.
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looks really disorganized from a true warm core type tropical system,but saying that the pressure at 27.81 in if it was a total warm core system in the gulf we would be looking at winds approaching 150mph
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Good to see everyone taking a break from Sandy, to debate a picture....
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
Striking distance:

She'll be on land by 6pm looks to me.
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People still on the streets in downtown D.C as conditions continue to rapidly deteriorate.Stores starting to close down except for super markets but I expect that to close down in about two hours.People here in D.C think we'll be safe and Sandy will be nothing to worry about.Have they forgotten about Isabel?.


BREAKING:Power beginning to go out in places I probably only have two hours in a half left of it before mine goes out with this high gust.
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487. DrewE
Winds really picking up in south central VA. Probably have only gotten an inch or so of rain so far, but sustained winds are and 25+ wind gusts are much more common then 2 hours ago.
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regular updates on Portlight's Sandy response here Link
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Winds here in South shore, MA getting much stronger now. Prob up to 35-40 mph
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Such a difference from Irene with the temperature and the air itself. Pretty cool out, and the air smells like fall and not like the beach.
Member Since: September 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 141
Quoting LostTomorrows:


That's pretty, and pretty terrifying at once.


That's a photoshopped picture (and badly done, as well). The supercell is a photo taken from the severe outbreak caused by Hurricane Ivan. It is often circulated as "proof" that UFO's are causing an increase in severe weather. It is actually quite a famous photo for that hoax. Loading it up into photoshop and separating the layers, you can see that whoever did this only spent about 10 minutes on it. I'm disappointed.
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Quoting presslord:
btw...we're STILL getting serious north wind here in Charleston...which I assume are related to Sandy...been like this since Friday


yep, and wait till we get the back lash winds in a couple days...all that wind that will bring the cold air down from where they are getting blizzard conditions right now
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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