Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Superstorm Sandy intensifying, bringing record storm surges
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:54 PM GMT on October 29, 2012 +63
The final countdown to Hurricane Sandy's arrival has begun, and this extraordinary and historic storm is already causing havoc all along the U.S. coast from North Carolina to Massachusetts. The scale of this massive storm truly earns Sandy the title of "superstorm". Sandy's tropical storm-force winds span an area of ocean 940 miles in diameter, and both North Carolina and the island of Bermuda, 700 miles to the east, are under tropical storm warnings. The region of ocean covered by 12-foot high seas spans an area of ocean an incredible 1560 miles in diameter. Winds near hurricane force are expected to affect waters from Virginia to Massachusetts today. Record storm surge flooding has already occurred in regions along the New Jersey coast this morning, and the highest water levels recorded in over a century of record keeping are expected over much of the New Jersey and New York coasts this evening during the 8 - 9 pm EDT high tide cycle. Sandy brought sustained winds of 60 mph and waves 30 feet high early this morning to the buoy east of Cape Hatteras, NC. A wind gust of 58 mph occurred at New York City's La Guardia Airport at 9:51 am EDT, and a buoy at Robins Reef, NJ recorded sustained winds of 42 mph, gusting to 55 mph. As of 8 am EDT, Sandy has dumped heavy rains of 7.87" at Cape Hatteras, NC; 4.01" at Ocean City, MD; 3.12" at Dover, DE; and 3.22" at Virginia Beach, VA. As of 9 am EDT, peak storm surge values of 5" were observed at Lewes, Delaware, 4.2' at Cape May, NJ, 4' at Atlantic City, NJ, 2.9' at Philadelphia, and 3.9' at New York City.

Latest data from the Hurricane Hunters shows that Sandy is intensifying as its core traverses the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. At 8 am EDT, an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found top winds of 98 mph in the heavy thunderstorms to the southwest of Sandy's center, at a point about 150 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. A dropsonde released in the eye measured a central pressure of 945 mb, but observed winds of 19 knots at the surface, so Sandy is probably a 943 mb hurricane that is very close to Category 2 strength. The Hurricane Hunters did not observe an eyewall, and saw very little temperature difference from inside to outside the eye, so Sandy is not going to be able to undergo rapid intensification. The storm could still see an increase of 5 mph in its winds before landfall tonight between 6 pm - 10 pm EDT, due, in part, to interaction with the low pressure system to its west that is pulling the hurricane towards the coast. The new, higher winds of Sandy don't have a lot of time to pile up additional storm surge water, so the NHC storm surge forecasts will probably not change today. But it is clear that Sandy is not going to pull its punch, and this superstorm is going to deliver a punishing multi-billion dollar blow to a huge area of the Eastern U.S.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Sandy.

Sandy already producing a record storm surge
The National Weather Service in Atlantic City, NJ said that isolated record storm surge flooding already occurred along portions of the New Jersey coast with this morning's 7:30 am EDT high tide cycle. As the tide goes out late this morning and this afternoon, water levels will fall, since the difference in water levels between low tide and high tide is about 5'. However, this evening, as the core of Sandy moves ashore, the storm will carry with it a gigantic bulge of water that will raise waters levels to the highest storm tides ever seen in over a century of record keeping, along much of the coastline of New Jersey and New York. The peak danger will be between 7 pm - 10 pm, when storm surge rides in on top of the high tide. The full moon is today, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month, adding another 2 - 3" to water levels. This morning's 9:30 am EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.9 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was record high: 5.8 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed since 1969, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy's storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' and a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy's storm surge is expected to be 10 - 12' above MLLW. Since a storm tide of 10.5' is needed to flood the subway system, it appears likely that portions of the NYC subway system will flood. The record highest storm tide at The Battery was 10.5', set on September 15, 1960, during Hurricane Donna.


Figure 2. Observed storm tide (red line) and predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at The Battery on the south shore of Manhattan, New York City, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory (green line) and the NYHOPS model from the Stevens Institute of Technology (pink curve), which uses a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows. These models have a storm surge of 5 - 6', which brings the maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--to 11' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.) Irene brought a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to The Battery in 2011. At a storm tide of 10.5', water will likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. The NWS in NYC is predicting a 10 - 12' storm tide at The Battery during tonight's 9 pm high tide cycle.


Figure 3. Observed storm tide (red line) and predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at Atlantic City, New Jersey, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory (green line) and the NYHOPS model from the Stevens Institute of Technology (pink curve), which uses a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows. These models predict a maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--of ' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.) Irene brought a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to The Battery in 2011. At a storm tide of 10.5', water will likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. The NWS in Atlantic City is predicting a 9.5' storm tide for the city during tonight's 8 pm high tide cycle, which would be the highest water levels ever observed in Atlantic City.

Links for Sandy
To find out if you need to evacuate, please contact your local emergency management office. They will have the latest information. People living in New York City can find their evacuation zone here or use this map. FEMA has information on preparing for hurricanes.

People with disabilities and caregivers seeking information on accessible shelter and transportation can contact portlight.org

Atlantic City beach cam

Ocean City, MD webcam

Statue of Liberty cam

An impressive 1-minute resolution satellite loop of Sandy today is at the CSU RAMMB website.

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Late Season Tropical Storms that have affected the U.S. north of Hatteras. He also has a post, Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

Hurricane Sandy info from NASA.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Storm Surge prediction model from the Stevens Institute of Technology, which use a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows.

Research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook for New York City.

Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Hurricane Sandy 1 (gwegret)
Post-Hurricane Sandy waves pound the Deerfield Beach, FL fishing pier!
Hurricane Sandy 1
Hurricane Sandy Long Neck Delaware (mal247)
On Rehoboth Bay
Hurricane Sandy Long Neck Delaware
Categories: Hurricane
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751. 900MB 7:05 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Quoting Hurricane12:


That's scary.


That thing is dangling right across the street from Carnegie Hall!
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 609
752. ScottLincoln 7:02 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Quoting hurricaneman123:


Yea I live there, i don't really know my elevation but the whole place is basically a swamp so i don't think its gonna be too good here, as of now its not that bad, just on and off rain and some wind

Southern or northern portion of town? Are they calling for an evacuation of your area? Don't tie the surge to the rain/wind... it will not necessarily get bad at the same time the wind/rain does.

PM me an address and I can try to help you estimate your elevation.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1583
753. Grothar 7:03 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Quoting weblackey:


Didn't Grothar post a graphic last night showing a wave coming from Africa?

I remember thinking WTF...


I think he also posted a 940-950mb storm striking Ocean County NJ about a week ago. :)

I think I'll take my nap now.
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754. hydrus 7:03 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
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755. TropicTraveler 7:03 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Quoting sar2401:

It's not quite that easy. If you were a serious investor, you'd understand that.


Disasters have many impacts, not the least upon the economy and upon businesses. Many small business never recover from a disaster and close their doors forever. Sorry for your trouble - it is a shame to be hit by this.
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756. redux 7:07 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
im just talking to a rigger, i don't know how you remove that crane. she was saying maybe by helicopter, piece by piece.

but then how do you get another crane up there???
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757. HCW 7:03 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
425,133 people are currently without power
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758. connie1976 7:03 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
New Jersey, Deleware, Maryland & Pennsylvania looks like they are going to be devastated! Praying for all of you all that live there!!
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759. MontanaZephyr 7:04 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Quoting 900MB:

That is the multi-gazzilion $ One 57 building. That crane is 1300 feet above ground. If that thing snaps, something is getting crushed.


There will probably be all sorts of oddity stories like this today. It does look pretty scary! Even if it doesn't come down today, it has to come down sometime. Sheesh.
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760. Grothar 7:04 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Here is the live link to that crane in New York. I hope it works


Link
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761. AstroHurricane001 7:04 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
762. Chicklit 7:04 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
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763. MontanaZephyr 7:05 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Gangs Plan Hurricane Looting Spree Via Twitter
Link
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764. Tropicsweatherpr 7:09 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
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765. Articuno 7:07 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Blog died down?
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766. sonofagunn 7:07 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
I'm worried that many of the sight-seers on piers and atop walls are going to be in for a surprise soon. I've seen videos before of storm surge happening *quickly*, as in all of a sudden one of those waves is a few feet higher than any previous ones - sort of like a tsunami.

When the high tide and wind direction both start stacking on top of each other, the situation could change quickly and people could get trapped or washed away.

I hope I'm overreacting.
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767. pottery 7:07 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Quoting weblackey:


Didn't Grothar post a graphic last night showing a wave coming from Africa?

I remember thinking WTF...

Yeah, there's a wave in the Cen.Atl, and here in Trinidad we are watching it and hoping for some rain !
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708
768. mikatnight 7:07 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Quoting Lonewulf:


They aren't. Profits keep a company afloat, traders trade by betting on those margins. More profitable a company is, the more it's stock goes up, less profitable it goes down. The price of the stock has no bearing on how profitable a company is, rather the exact opposite. Apple ans MS are 2 perfect examples, look at both of their stock prices in 1998, then look at them today.


There are actually two different markets. There is the real one, that depends on selling products or services, and there is the imagined market, where CEO's try to get people to bet on how the future of the company will be. That is the stock market.
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769. HCW 7:07 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
425,133 people are currently without power
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770. JTDailyUpdate 7:10 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
000
WTNT63 KNHC 291855
TCUAT3

HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
300 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...CENTER OF SANDY HEADING TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS EVENING...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 73.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

LATEST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...
AS WELL AS NOAA DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE THAT SANDY
CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY OR CENTRAL DELAWARE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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771. AegirsGal 7:08 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
WCVB has been reporting about 50,000+ out of power in MASS.
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772. pottery 7:09 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


I think he also posted a 940-950mb storm striking Ocean County NJ about a week ago. :)

I think I'll take my nap now.


heheheheheheheh
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773. Hurricane12 7:09 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Quoting 900MB:


That thing is dangling right across the street from Carnegie Hall!


Yeah, I saw it on CNN, and talking about CNN, they have some amazing live footage in Atlantic City, NJ. The winds are extremely rough.
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774. biff4ugo 7:11 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Wow, that crane doesn't look like it will survive landfall, as torn up as it is and 1000 feet up. Get out of it's way sounds like the best safety option.

In my economics class they taught that when you sold something, someone had to buy it. They didn't teach me that a weather blog is where serious investors go to solve trading issues. That is new to me.
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775. snotly 7:10 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Darn you Green Goblin!!!, where is Spider Man?


Quoting Doppler22:
There has been a partial crane collapse in NYC and now the crane is dangling over the streets below!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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776. zawxdsk 7:10 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    


Inland Wind Model for Northeast Region. NWS has forward motion at 28mph on a Cat One storm. Here is your maximum penetration of wind chart.

More Here

Stay safe everyone.
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778. Articuno 7:11 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Quoting hydrus:

Making landfall ATM.
Looking like a west turn too.
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779. Manhattancane 7:11 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Quoting kwgirl:
That is bad, especially if it is salt water. I imagine the river is fresh water, but I wonder how much of the salt water will make it up the river.


150 miles inland there's still tides. The subway flooding water is waaay past being freshwater. (it's a tidal estuary)
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780. Grothar 7:11 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Quoting Articuno:
Blog died down?



Nothing is loading. Remarks are coming on about 4 minutes later
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781. AstroHurricane001 7:11 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    






The balance of the flooded regions will shifts as the storm progresses.
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782. RitaEvac 7:12 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    


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783. Articuno 7:12 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
LOL.

Look at the times of the posts, they are mixed up.
Lag much?
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784. jskweather 7:12 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Quoting ncstorm:
I thought the storm was going to beat high tide because of the forward speed so wouldnt the storm surge be less for NY?


No. When it comes onshore to the Southwest of NYC, the counter clockwise rotation will be pushing water due North right into Long Island and NYC for hours after the eye is onshore. This maximum effect will be right at high tide.

Similarly, Katrina hit east of NOLA and pushed Lake Ponch right into the city from the North due to the huge surge and south blowing winds.

This same thing happened during Ike in 2008. Ike was onshore before the Bolivar Pennisula got innundated to the East of Houston and NE of Galveston.

Thus Sandy coming onshore early and leaving her North blowing winds pushing water toward NYC right at high tide is, IMO, a worst case scenario not a blessing.

I truly hope everyone takes this storm seriously. Prayers and thoughts to those in it's path.
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785. Sfloridacat5 7:12 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
AOL main page has been showing the flooding in Atlantic City.
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786. Tropicsweatherpr 7:13 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
CANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
300 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...CENTER OF SANDY HEADING TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS EVENING...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 73.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

LATEST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...
AS WELL AS NOAA DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE THAT SANDY
CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY OR CENTRAL DELAWARE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8207
787. JTDailyUpdate 7:13 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:



Nothing is loading. Remarks are coming on about 4 minutes later


Grothar what browser are you using
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788. sfranz 7:13 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Well - south-central MA is off the grid. I have to start conserving battery now.

Stay safe and warm, everyone. I'll check in for updates as I can.


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789. charlottefl 7:13 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Not quite at landfall yet, close though...
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790. Chicklit 7:13 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
I'm waiting for one of the reporters standing out in the storm to get sideswiped with a piece of something.
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791. hydrus 7:14 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Quoting Articuno:

Making landfall ATM.
Looking like a west turn too.
If Sandy takes a path W-SW, a may change the situation for quite a lot of people.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14305
792. Neapolitan 7:14 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Quoting Doppler22:
There has been a partial crane collapse in NYC and now the crane is dangling over the streets below!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Please consider adding a few more exclamation marks; 29 of them may not quite convey the sense of excitement you intend it to. ;-)
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793. GBguy88 7:14 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=r obn4

Gust to 66kts, and that's well to the north of the center. Very impressive.
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794. ncstorm 7:15 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
As you can see the winds have not died down even down here..

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795. Methurricanes 7:16 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Quoting HCW:
425,133 people are currently without power
Thte Merrimack Valley is getting it pretty good, and another Band is lining up on I-90 lifting north, but probably a 30min Break between the two.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
796. ILwthrfan 7:16 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
If Sandy takes a path W-SW, a may change the situation for quite a lot of people.


Surge at Delaware bay specifically.... There were a few model runs that had it diving SSW briefly before landfall then lifting NNW inland...
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797. hydrus 7:16 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Quoting Neapolitan:
Please consider adding a few more exclamation marks; 29 of them may not quite convey the sense of excitement you intend it to. ;-)
!...Sorry Nea, 30 is a good round number..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14305
798. Skyepony (Mod) 7:17 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Scores of Twitter users have flooded the social networking site announcing their plans to go on looting sprees once Hurricane Sandy makes landfall, as the New York National Guard announced it would put troops on duty in Long Island to prevent such activity.
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799. Progster 7:17 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Battery park surge now 6 feet. Looks headed for 11 at least...

http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/SSWS/d/index.sh tml?station=N017
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800. RitaEvac 7:17 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
Lady live on tv saying glass breaking in NYC
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801. redux 7:17 PM GMT on October 29, 2012    
still haven't felt very severe winds in Baltimore.

plenty of rain though.
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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