Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Superstorm Sandy intensifying, bringing record storm surges

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:54 PM GMT on October 29, 2012

+63

The final countdown to Hurricane Sandy's arrival has begun, and this extraordinary and historic storm is already causing havoc all along the U.S. coast from North Carolina to Massachusetts. The scale of this massive storm truly earns Sandy the title of "superstorm". Sandy's tropical storm-force winds span an area of ocean 940 miles in diameter, and both North Carolina and the island of Bermuda, 700 miles to the east, are under tropical storm warnings. The region of ocean covered by 12-foot high seas spans an area of ocean an incredible 1560 miles in diameter. Winds near hurricane force are expected to affect waters from Virginia to Massachusetts today. Record storm surge flooding has already occurred in regions along the New Jersey coast this morning, and the highest water levels recorded in over a century of record keeping are expected over much of the New Jersey and New York coasts this evening during the 8 - 9 pm EDT high tide cycle. Sandy brought sustained winds of 60 mph and waves 30 feet high early this morning to the buoy east of Cape Hatteras, NC. A wind gust of 58 mph occurred at New York City's La Guardia Airport at 9:51 am EDT, and a buoy at Robins Reef, NJ recorded sustained winds of 42 mph, gusting to 55 mph. As of 8 am EDT, Sandy has dumped heavy rains of 7.87" at Cape Hatteras, NC; 4.01" at Ocean City, MD; 3.12" at Dover, DE; and 3.22" at Virginia Beach, VA. As of 9 am EDT, peak storm surge values of 5" were observed at Lewes, Delaware, 4.2' at Cape May, NJ, 4' at Atlantic City, NJ, 2.9' at Philadelphia, and 3.9' at New York City.

Latest data from the Hurricane Hunters shows that Sandy is intensifying as its core traverses the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. At 8 am EDT, an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found top winds of 98 mph in the heavy thunderstorms to the southwest of Sandy's center, at a point about 150 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. A dropsonde released in the eye measured a central pressure of 945 mb, but observed winds of 19 knots at the surface, so Sandy is probably a 943 mb hurricane that is very close to Category 2 strength. The Hurricane Hunters did not observe an eyewall, and saw very little temperature difference from inside to outside the eye, so Sandy is not going to be able to undergo rapid intensification. The storm could still see an increase of 5 mph in its winds before landfall tonight between 6 pm - 10 pm EDT, due, in part, to interaction with the low pressure system to its west that is pulling the hurricane towards the coast. The new, higher winds of Sandy don't have a lot of time to pile up additional storm surge water, so the NHC storm surge forecasts will probably not change today. But it is clear that Sandy is not going to pull its punch, and this superstorm is going to deliver a punishing multi-billion dollar blow to a huge area of the Eastern U.S.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Sandy.

Sandy already producing a record storm surge
The National Weather Service in Atlantic City, NJ said that isolated record storm surge flooding already occurred along portions of the New Jersey coast with this morning's 7:30 am EDT high tide cycle. As the tide goes out late this morning and this afternoon, water levels will fall, since the difference in water levels between low tide and high tide is about 5'. However, this evening, as the core of Sandy moves ashore, the storm will carry with it a gigantic bulge of water that will raise waters levels to the highest storm tides ever seen in over a century of record keeping, along much of the coastline of New Jersey and New York. The peak danger will be between 7 pm - 10 pm, when storm surge rides in on top of the high tide. The full moon is today, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month, adding another 2 - 3" to water levels. This morning's 9:30 am EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.9 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was record high: 5.8 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed since 1969, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy's storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' and a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy's storm surge is expected to be 10 - 12' above MLLW. Since a storm tide of 10.5' is needed to flood the subway system, it appears likely that portions of the NYC subway system will flood. The record highest storm tide at The Battery was 10.5', set on September 15, 1960, during Hurricane Donna.

Figure 2. Observed storm tide (red line) and predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at The Battery on the south shore of Manhattan, New York City, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory (green line) and the NYHOPS model from the Stevens Institute of Technology (pink curve), which uses a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows. These models have a storm surge of 5 - 6', which brings the maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--to 11' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.) Irene brought a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to The Battery in 2011. At a storm tide of 10.5', water will likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. The NWS in NYC is predicting a 10 - 12' storm tide at The Battery during tonight's 9 pm high tide cycle.

Figure 3. Observed storm tide (red line) and predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at Atlantic City, New Jersey, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory (green line) and the NYHOPS model from the Stevens Institute of Technology (pink curve), which uses a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows. These models predict a maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--of ' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.) Irene brought a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to The Battery in 2011. At a storm tide of 10.5', water will likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. The NWS in Atlantic City is predicting a 9.5' storm tide for the city during tonight's 8 pm high tide cycle, which would be the highest water levels ever observed in Atlantic City.

Links for Sandy
To find out if you need to evacuate, please contact your local emergency management office. They will have the latest information. People living in New York City can find their evacuation zone here or use this map. FEMA has information on preparing for hurricanes.

People with disabilities and caregivers seeking information on accessible shelter and transportation can contact portlight.org

Atlantic City beach cam

Ocean City, MD webcam

Statue of Liberty cam

An impressive 1-minute resolution satellite loop of Sandy today is at the CSU RAMMB website.

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Late Season Tropical Storms that have affected the U.S. north of Hatteras. He also has a post, Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

Hurricane Sandy info from NASA.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Storm Surge prediction model from the Stevens Institute of Technology, which use a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows.

Research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook for New York City.

Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Sandy 1 (gwegret)

Post-Hurricane Sandy waves pound the Deerfield Beach, FL fishing pier!

Hurricane Sandy Long Neck Delaware (mal247)

On Rehoboth Bay

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501. SyriboTigereyes 5:41 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
A friend sent me this from Levittown. We are "only" getting gusts around 40mph and the trees are already coming up in Nassau County in places. Wow. Member Since: September 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 131

502. wolftribe2009 5:41 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115: People still on the streets in downtown D.C as conditions continue to rapidly deteriorate.Stores starting to close down except for super markets but I expect that to close down in about two hours.People here in D.C think we'll be safe and Sandy will be nothing to worry about.Have they forgotten about Isabel?. BREAKING:Power beginning to go out in places I probably only have two hours in a half left of it before mine goes out with this high gust. it isn't only washington DC. I am hearing people out all along the east coast. The fact that people are allowed in ZONE A In NYC right now is beyond me. I think that is where Jim Cantore told us he was located. Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752

503. Swede38 5:41 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy: That's a photoshopped picture (and badly done, as well). The supercell is a photo taken from the severe outbreak caused by Hurricane Ivan. It is often circulated as "proof" that UFO's are causing an increase in severe weather. It is actually quite a famous photo for that hoax. Loading it up into photoshop and separating the layers, you can see that whoever did this only spent about 10 minutes on it. I'm disappointed. Member Since: August 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22

504. Articuno 5:42 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting LargoFl: Almost looks like its moving due west. Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

505. ScottLincoln 5:42 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting breeezee: looks really disorganized from a true warm core type tropical system,but saying that the pressure at 27.81 in if it was a total warm core system in the gulf we would be looking at winds approaching 150mph Its not exactly a matter of warm core vs cold core, or east coast vs gulf coast. It's a matter of storm size, and thus, pressure gradient force. A warm-core storm of this size with similar pressure would have similar winds. Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1592

506. tropicfreak 5:42 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Here in Richmond VA we've been hammered since this morning. Winds are coming in gusts but not very consistent wind. Having a really heavy rain band bringing TS force gusts. Wish me luck and hope I don't lose power... that will be hard to come by later this evening. Pouring outside though. Imo, based on it's current trajectory I am saying a landfall in Delaware seems likely. That's not good though, puts me in seeing near hurricane force gusts. Hanging on in here, hope all is well by the end. Pressure on my weather station has dipped below 29.00 inches, the first time it has ever done so in my nearly 2 years of ownership. Now at 28.97. That's 981 mb if you convert it. Wish me luck as I'm hanging in there! Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

507. LargoFl 5:42 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
...SANDY TO BRING NEAR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND FLOOD-PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE GREATER BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREAS, INCLUDING THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER, MARYLAND FROM THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY TO GARRETT COUNTY, NORTHERN VIRGINIA, AND EXTREME EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE OBJECTIVE OF THIS STATEMENT IS TO PROVIDE A SINGLE PRODUCT THAT INTEGRATES THE WARNING PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE. SANDY LOCAL STATEMENTS WILL BE RELEASED EVERY 6 HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AT THE FOLLOWING RELEASE TIMES: 11 PM...5 AM... 11 AM...AND 5 PM. AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.5N...LONGITUDE 71.5W. THIS WAS ABOUT 315 MILES EAST OF WASHINGTON DC. SANDY WAS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 MPH. SANDY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST EARLY TONIGHT...WITH A LITTLE STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. SANDY WILL SEVERELY IMPACT THE REGION WELL BEFORE IT COMES ASHORE. SUMMARY OF THREATS ------------------ * THE MAIN IMMEDIATE THREATS FOR SANDY WILL BE STRONG WINDS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES AND POWER/COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES...AND HEAVY RAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE FLOODING OF LOCAL STREAMS AND CREEKS. * BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WHERE 18 TO 24 INCHES ARE FORECAST. * MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR...STARTING THIS AFTERNOON ON SMALLER WATERSHEDS WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLOODING ON THE MAIN-STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE POTOMAC AND THE SHENANDOAH. CHANGES SINCE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ---------------------------------- * THE TIMING OF THE PEAK WINDS FROM SANDY ARE NOW EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. * RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN INCREASED. THE GREATER BALTIMORE METRO AREA IS NOW FORECAST TO RECEIVE 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. * THE POTOMAC RIVER IS LIKELY TO GO INTO FLOOD STAGE BEGINNING AROUND WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH WINDS ---------- * WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY TODAY...WITH THE MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * GENERALLY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. * HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 70 AND POSSIBLY 80 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT A REGION LOCATED BETWEEN BEL AIR MD...POINT LOOKOUT MD...AND HAGERSTOWN MD BETWEEN 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM TUESDAY. THIS INCLUDES THE GREATER BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREAS. * COUPLED WITH HEAVY RAINS FROM SANDY...THE HIGH WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE. RAINFALL AND FLOODING --------------------- * 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL MD INCLUDING THE BALTIMORE METRO AREA AND ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF THE BAY. * 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FREDERICK... WASHINGTON AND FREDERICKSBURG METRO AREAS. * 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DC METRO COUNTIES...AS WELL AS WESTERN MARYLAND WEST OF HANCOCK MD. * THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXTENSIVE AND DANGEROUS FLOODING OF LOCAL STREAMS AND CREEKS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY. MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING ------------------------ * THE POTOMAC RIVER WILL LIKELY START FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. * THE MONOCACY RIVER IS FORECAST TO FLOOD LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE TO BE IN MAJOR FLOOD THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. LEVELS FORECAST HAVE NOT BEEN SEEN SINCE AGNES IN 1972. COASTAL FLOODING ---------------- * WITH THE FULL MOON ON MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE ALREADY HIGHER THAN NORMAL. COUNTER TO THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...STRONG NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL CAUSE A BLOW-OUT TIDE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TODAY. EAST FACING BEACHES ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC WILL EXPERIENCE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES THAT WILL GIVE THE APPEARANCE OF TIDAL FLOODING AND RESULT IN SIMILAR IMPACTS. * AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY...WATER WILL RETURN BACK INTO THE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC AND BEGIN TO PILE UP IN THE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES. * THE HIGHEST TIDES FOR MOST WILL BE WITH THE HIGH TIDES TUESDAY. SNOWFALL -------- * IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS ABOVE 2000 FEET HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED. * THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND AND HEAVY WET SNOW WILL DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO IN PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW. * THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OVER 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE 18 TO 24 INCHES BETWEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * BE PREPARED FOR EXTENDED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES. * IF YOU LIVE NEAR LARGE TREES...REMAIN IN THE LOWER LEVEL OF YOUR HOME OR SEEK SHELTER ELSEWHERE IF POSSIBLE AND RIDE SANDY OUT. * REFRAIN FROM ANY UNNECESSARY TRAVEL. * ENSURE LOOSE ITEMS ON YOUR PROPERTY ARE SECURED. * IF POWER LINES ARE DOWN...STAY AWAY FROM THEM AND REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL ELECTRICAL UTILITY COMPANY. * IF YOU SHOULD HAVE EMERGENCY TRAVEL...IF YOU COME UPON FLOODED ROADWAYS DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SUBMERGED ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND AND DON`T DROWN. * IF YOU USE A PORTABLE POWER GENERATOR...PLEASE FOLLOW MANUFACTURERS INSTRUCTIONS AND ENSURE THAT IT IS PROPERLY VENTILATED. * DO NOT USE CHARCOAL GRILLS IN ENCLOSED AREAS. * MARINERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT THERE IS ENOUGH SLACK LINE IN THEIR BOAT`S MOORINGS TO ACCEPT A BLOW OUT TIDE TODAY AND HIGH TIDES TUESDAY. * PERIODICALLY CHECK ON YOUR ELDERLY NEIGHBORS AND FAMILY MEMBERS TO ENSURE THEY ARE SAFE. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION... PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. && .NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AT 5 PM EDT TODAY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$ Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

508. wunderweatherman123 5:42 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
pressure here in nj has dipped to 974mb Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 833

509. Sfloridacat5 5:42 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
I think it interesting that all these people are playing and taking pictures of the waves out at the beaches in the hurricane warning areas. It doesn't look like people are all that afraid of this system. Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2027

510. CybrTeddy 5:42 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Sandy is defiantly still tropical, if anything it looks more and more tropical as time goes on. It's too late for hurricane warnings, but with all the doom and gloom they're promising on the news, I think everyone is treating this with their full attention. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20262

511. MAweatherboy1 5:42 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting Methurricanes: There's a band that right now is just past I-90 that appears to have TS force winds behind (south) of it. The east/NE side is filling in with some bands, we'll end up getting in on those: It shows up better on a loop. Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6373

512. Bielle 5:42 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting oddspeed: From north and east of Toronto, Canada: See that second blue spike up through Lake Ontario with the yellow core? It just threw rain to hit my north-facing windows that are 5 feet under an overhang. Never had that happen before. Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600

513. pottery 5:43 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
WAH! 95f at noon here. Humidity 56% Heat Index 105F what happened to the Rainy Season? Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

514. Grothar 5:43 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Local live New York News. Link Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19550

515. catastropheadjuster 5:43 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115: People still on the streets in downtown D.C as conditions continue to rapidly deteriorate.Stores starting to close down except for super markets but I expect that to close down in about two hours.People here in D.C think we'll be safe and Sandy will be nothing to worry about.Have they forgotten about Isabel?. BREAKING:Power beginning to go out in places I probably only have two hours in a half left of it before mine goes out with this high gust. Washingtonian115, You stay safe and be careful. Look forward to hearing from you when you can if your power goes out. Where saying prayers for ev1 on the East Coast and inland. sheri Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3556

516. jerseybreakfast 5:43 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
It is so strange to be hunkering down for a hurricane in such cool, breezy fall weather. I'm in inland Northern Jersey and doing a LOT of watchful waiting. We've had some rain, but not a torrential amount. The winds have gusting pretty strongly off and on. That's my biggest concern up here. Member Since: August 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 17

517. LargoFl 5:44 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
looks like that center is going to hit the delmar instead of central nj Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

518. aspiring2012 5:44 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
I'll confirm what Washingtonian is saying, just seen the first reported storm outage in Arlington. Member Since: August 5, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 37

519. Swede38 5:44 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting Swede38: Member Since: August 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22

520. Articuno 5:44 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy: Sandy is defiantly still tropical, if anything it looks more and more tropical as time goes on. It's too late for hurricane warnings, but with all the doom and gloom they're promising on the news, I think everyone is treating this with their full attention. Maybe it's good we "hype". Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

521. washingtonian115 5:45 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting wolftribe2009: it isn't only washington DC. I am hearing people out all along the east coast. The fact that people are allowed in ZONE A In NYC right now is beyond me. I think that is where Jim Cantore told us he was located. I just hope the death toll isn't high.Could get reaaaaly ugly.I heard about people waiting till the last minute to evacuate but were trapped by rising water. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10667

522. LargoFl 5:45 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting jerseybreakfast: It is so strange to be hunkering down for a hurricane in such cool, breezy fall weather. I'm in inland Northern Jersey and doing a LOT of watchful waiting. We've had some rain, but not a torrential amount. The winds have gusting pretty strongly off and on. That's my biggest concern up here. you will get more once she comes ashore, and maybe even more as she turns northward..stay safe up there Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

523. Swede38 5:45 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting SyriboTigereyes: A friend sent me this from Levittown. We are "only" getting gusts around 40mph and the trees are already coming up in Nassau County in places. Wow. My daughter is in Middletown. How bad is it? Cheers Member Since: August 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22

524. Methurricanes 5:45 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Surge now 4.66 at the Battery Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 528

525. BaltOCane 5:45 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting wunderweatherman123: pressure here in nj has dipped to 974mb I'm at 980 here in B-more Member Since: May 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 411

526. DrewE 5:45 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting tropicfreak: Here in Richmond VA we've been hammered since this morning. Winds are coming in gusts but not very consistent wind. Having a really heavy rain band bringing TS force gusts. Wish me luck and hope I don't lose power... that will be hard to come by later this evening. Pouring outside though. Imo, based on it's current trajectory I am saying a landfall in Delaware seems likely. That's not good though, puts me in seeing near hurricane force gusts. Hanging on in here, hope all is well by the end. Pressure on my weather station has dipped below 29.00 inches, the first time it has ever done so in my nearly 2 years of ownership. Now at 28.97. That's 981 mb if you convert it. Wish me luck as I'm hanging in there! This poster is about 30 miles north of me, and I am experiencing the exact same conditions. Wind gusts of tropical storm force and becoming more and more common place. Member Since: October 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 45

527. SyriboTigereyes 5:46 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting oracle28: Anyone that takes Facebook posts seriously, needs an evaluation. That's a good point actually. These are friends and family saying this who have been saying it in person as well. I just think its frustrating for those who have lost so much, have lost their lives, etc. And it happens every time there is a storm, anywhere. Not sure why it aggravates me so much. Member Since: September 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 131

528. VaBeachSurfer 5:46 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
We are getting pounded here in VB with rain. Think we'll see much wind? Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 19

529. awagner94 5:46 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Anyone watching the HH heading into storm? Picked up a low wind spot south west of the center. Similar location to one found by the HH heading home. Can anyone explain what that is and why? Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8

530. CarolinaHurricanes87 5:46 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting tropicfreak: Here in Richmond VA we've been hammered since this morning. Winds are coming in gusts but not very consistent wind. Having a really heavy rain band bringing TS force gusts. Wish me luck and hope I don't lose power... that will be hard to come by later this evening. Pouring outside though. Imo, based on it's current trajectory I am saying a landfall in Delaware seems likely. That's not good though, puts me in seeing near hurricane force gusts. Hanging on in here, hope all is well by the end. Pressure on my weather station has dipped below 29.00 inches, the first time it has ever done so in my nearly 2 years of ownership. Now at 28.97. That's 981 mb if you convert it. Wish me luck as I'm hanging in there! Thanks for the update from my birthplace. Stay indoors and stay safe! Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 468

531. tropicfreak 5:47 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting DrewE: This poster is about 30 miles north of me, and I am experiencing the exact same conditions. Wind gusts of tropical storm force and becoming more and more common place. Cool Drew where are you? Southern Chesterfield? Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

532. MontanaZephyr 5:47 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting SSideBrac: Not at all a blame game - their behaviour and ignorance could very well put Rescuers and 1st Responders lives at risk. Somehow, the message has to be pushed home to such people. Only weather nerds really follow the weather, particular commercial interests aside maybe. For most people, keeping up with 'the weather' is about as high priority as keeping up with the Tiawanese Girls' volleyball standings. Member Since: May 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 427

533. Kumo 5:47 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting CloudGatherer: That pic of the Tomb of the Unknowns is from September. This is what it looks like today. Aye, rain or shine they'll be out there. Many thanks to The Old Guard for what they sacrifice for our Army and our Nation. Member Since: August 3, 2012 Posts: 2 Comments: 50

534. kwgirl 5:47 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting jeffs713: Ok... it was a typo. But still... you shouldn't be taking anything into a hurricane if you could avoid it. Especially not a sailboat. Most large ships set sail in a storm to ride it out at sea rather than be pushed against the dock. Maybe that is why "The Bounty" sailed. Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1530

535. CarolinaHurricanes87 5:48 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
I really hope people who needed to do so evacuated.... Katrina was bad enough, but water rescues in WAY colder water and air temps may not be able to happen quickly enough to save lives. Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 468

536. SyriboTigereyes 5:48 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting Swede38: My daughter is in Middletown. How bad is it? Cheers Wind is picking up now, shaking our little old house a bit and rattling the windows. The wild birds are still out on the feeders in our yard though ;) Member Since: September 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 131

537. klaatuborada 5:49 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Winds are really picking up. It's hard to believe this storm is so far away. Lights flickering, UPS battery backups beeping. When the power goes out I'm unplugging everything to keep the battery backups charged, so we can keep the phones and maybe even a computer going. I've got my own portable wi-fi. Good luck everybody. I'm going to power down to keep my electronics safe. Member Since: August 15, 2004 Posts: 23 Comments: 380

538. Sfloridacat5 5:49 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
I still say the East side of Sandy is basically rain free. Radar shows very little precipitation on the East side of the center. Center is only a few hours from landall. Sandy is really moving quickly now. Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2027

539. yonzabam 5:50 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Professor Mark Saunders, Department of Space and Climate Physics at University College London, describes the two most unusual features of Hurricane Sandy: its track direction and curvature, and its relative strength. Track direction and curvature. From a location well offshore at a latitude of 35°-40°N the storm turns to the northwestward to strike the US mid-Atlantic coast. There is no precedent in hurricane records extending back to 1851 of a storm at this latitude taking this path. All historical hurricanes located well offshore at this latitude have followed the jet stream and tracked in a direction between north and east. Relative strength. Its strength for a hurricane striking the US mid-Atlantic coast in late October. Sandy's central pressure is currently forecast to be 945-950mb at landfall late on Monday. A pressure this low would exceed the previous record low pressure of 955mb for a hurricane landfall in this region at this time of year. It would also be close to the record low pressure of 946mb for any hurricane landfall north of Cape Hatteras; this record-holder being the 'New England' hurricane which occurred in September 1938. Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1734

540. LargoFl 5:51 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
.THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR CALVERT...ANNE ARUNDEL AND EASTERN ST. MARYS COUNTIES... AT 1213 PM EDT...MARYLAND ROUTE 450 WAS REPORTED TO BE FLOODED EAST OF CROFTON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED WEST OF THE BAYSHORE COMMUNITIES...BUT ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOOD WARNING MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED OR RE-ISSUED LATER. A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED. STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY. DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426

541. JTDailyUpdate 5:51 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting SyriboTigereyes: A friend sent me this from Levittown. We are "only" getting gusts around 40mph and the trees are already coming up in Nassau County in places. Wow. Same here in Levittown, PA Member Since: August 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 246

542. Skyepony (Mod) 5:52 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 972mb (28.70 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 15.0°C (59.0°F) 13.4°C (56.1°F) 275° (from the W) 57 knots (66 mph) 1000mb -237m (-778 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 925mb 420m (1,378 ft) 10.4°C (50.7°F) 10.0°C (50.0°F) 275° (from the W) 81 knots (93 mph) 850mb 1,119m (3,671 ft) 5.8°C (42.4°F) 4.2°C (39.6°F) 275° (from the W) 81 knots (93 mph) 700mb 2,694m (8,839 ft) 1.8°C (35.2°F) 1.2°C (34.2°F) 325° (from the NW) 40 knots (46 mph) Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 17:08Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in maximum wind band. Splash Location: 36.9N 73.67W Splash Time: 17:12Z Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29358

543. CarolinaHurricanes87 5:52 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting Sfloridacat5: I still say the East side of Sandy is basically rain free. Radar shows very little precipitation on the East side of the center. Center is only a few hours from landall. Sandy is really moving quickly now. I think you are right about parts of Sandy lacking rain. Could be very interesting that whoever gets the largest storm surge may not see a whole lot in terms of rain. The good news is Sandy is going to make landfall much earlier than expected and avoid high tide Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 468

544. yonzabam 5:52 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting SyriboTigereyes: A friend sent me this from Levittown. We are "only" getting gusts around 40mph and the trees are already coming up in Nassau County in places. Wow. Surprised to see so many green leaves on the tree. If that's typical, there will probably be record numbers of downed trees. Here in Scotland, the trees have shed their leaves. Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1734

545. pottery 5:52 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting MontanaZephyr: Only weather nerds really follow the weather, particular commercial interests aside maybe. For most people, keeping up with 'the weather' is about as high priority as keeping up with the Tiawanese Girls' volleyball standings. I thought I was the only one wot did that. :):)) Re: the Bounty. They lost power and in a ship like that in those conditions, you are gone..... Had the engine kept running they would probably been fine. Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

546. Articuno 5:53 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
I think we will be spared of this storm. Imagine if there was actually another side to the storm? Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

547. DrewE 5:53 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting tropicfreak: Cool Drew where are you? Southern Chesterfield? Yes sir! Are you on the south side? I hate to be the a negative nancy, but the chances of us losing power are getting higher and higher as this is progressing. Check this out. It's an outage map from Dominion Power. Link Member Since: October 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 45

548. leftlink 5:53 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Despite all the reports in the media about flooding, the biggest surge won't happen until the next tide cycle. Well, that tide cycle is starting right now in eastern Long Island due to extreme wind offshore. In New London CT, the low tide appears to be happening 3 hours or more earlier than normal. Which means that there could be a 9 hour tidal rise, peaking around 11pm: Member Since: December 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 100

549. Tropicsweatherpr 5:54 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting Articuno: I think we will be spared of this storm. Imagine if there was actually another side to the storm? Where are you located? Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8235

550. sfranz 5:54 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
The winds are creating an "instant autumn" in south-central MA. Tree branches should be next. Last night my yard was totally cleaned up. Member Since: September 4, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 149

551. washingtonian115 5:55 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting Articuno: I think we will be spared of this storm. Imagine if there was actually another side to the storm? Where you live?.Because my lights are beginning to flicker just a little from some of these strong gust. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10667

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