Superstorm Sandy intensifying, bringing record storm surges

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:54 PM GMT on October 29, 2012

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The final countdown to Hurricane Sandy's arrival has begun, and this extraordinary and historic storm is already causing havoc all along the U.S. coast from North Carolina to Massachusetts. The scale of this massive storm truly earns Sandy the title of "superstorm". Sandy's tropical storm-force winds span an area of ocean 940 miles in diameter, and both North Carolina and the island of Bermuda, 700 miles to the east, are under tropical storm warnings. The region of ocean covered by 12-foot high seas spans an area of ocean an incredible 1560 miles in diameter. Winds near hurricane force are expected to affect waters from Virginia to Massachusetts today. Record storm surge flooding has already occurred in regions along the New Jersey coast this morning, and the highest water levels recorded in over a century of record keeping are expected over much of the New Jersey and New York coasts this evening during the 8 - 9 pm EDT high tide cycle. Sandy brought sustained winds of 60 mph and waves 30 feet high early this morning to the buoy east of Cape Hatteras, NC. A wind gust of 58 mph occurred at New York City's La Guardia Airport at 9:51 am EDT, and a buoy at Robins Reef, NJ recorded sustained winds of 42 mph, gusting to 55 mph. As of 8 am EDT, Sandy has dumped heavy rains of 7.87" at Cape Hatteras, NC; 4.01" at Ocean City, MD; 3.12" at Dover, DE; and 3.22" at Virginia Beach, VA. As of 9 am EDT, peak storm surge values of 5" were observed at Lewes, Delaware, 4.2' at Cape May, NJ, 4' at Atlantic City, NJ, 2.9' at Philadelphia, and 3.9' at New York City.

Latest data from the Hurricane Hunters shows that Sandy is intensifying as its core traverses the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. At 8 am EDT, an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found top winds of 98 mph in the heavy thunderstorms to the southwest of Sandy's center, at a point about 150 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. A dropsonde released in the eye measured a central pressure of 945 mb, but observed winds of 19 knots at the surface, so Sandy is probably a 943 mb hurricane that is very close to Category 2 strength. The Hurricane Hunters did not observe an eyewall, and saw very little temperature difference from inside to outside the eye, so Sandy is not going to be able to undergo rapid intensification. The storm could still see an increase of 5 mph in its winds before landfall tonight between 6 pm - 10 pm EDT, due, in part, to interaction with the low pressure system to its west that is pulling the hurricane towards the coast. The new, higher winds of Sandy don't have a lot of time to pile up additional storm surge water, so the NHC storm surge forecasts will probably not change today. But it is clear that Sandy is not going to pull its punch, and this superstorm is going to deliver a punishing multi-billion dollar blow to a huge area of the Eastern U.S.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Sandy.

Sandy already producing a record storm surge
The National Weather Service in Atlantic City, NJ said that isolated record storm surge flooding already occurred along portions of the New Jersey coast with this morning's 7:30 am EDT high tide cycle. As the tide goes out late this morning and this afternoon, water levels will fall, since the difference in water levels between low tide and high tide is about 5'. However, this evening, as the core of Sandy moves ashore, the storm will carry with it a gigantic bulge of water that will raise waters levels to the highest storm tides ever seen in over a century of record keeping, along much of the coastline of New Jersey and New York. The peak danger will be between 7 pm - 10 pm, when storm surge rides in on top of the high tide. The full moon is today, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month, adding another 2 - 3" to water levels. This morning's 9:30 am EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.9 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was record high: 5.8 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed since 1969, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy's storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' and a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy's storm surge is expected to be 10 - 12' above MLLW. Since a storm tide of 10.5' is needed to flood the subway system, it appears likely that portions of the NYC subway system will flood. The record highest storm tide at The Battery was 10.5', set on September 15, 1960, during Hurricane Donna.


Figure 2. Observed storm tide (red line) and predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at The Battery on the south shore of Manhattan, New York City, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory (green line) and the NYHOPS model from the Stevens Institute of Technology (pink curve), which uses a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows. These models have a storm surge of 5 - 6', which brings the maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--to 11' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.) Irene brought a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to The Battery in 2011. At a storm tide of 10.5', water will likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. The NWS in NYC is predicting a 10 - 12' storm tide at The Battery during tonight's 9 pm high tide cycle.


Figure 3. Observed storm tide (red line) and predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at Atlantic City, New Jersey, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory (green line) and the NYHOPS model from the Stevens Institute of Technology (pink curve), which uses a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows. These models predict a maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--of ' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.) Irene brought a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to The Battery in 2011. At a storm tide of 10.5', water will likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. The NWS in Atlantic City is predicting a 9.5' storm tide for the city during tonight's 8 pm high tide cycle, which would be the highest water levels ever observed in Atlantic City.

Links for Sandy
To find out if you need to evacuate, please contact your local emergency management office. They will have the latest information. People living in New York City can find their evacuation zone here or use this map. FEMA has information on preparing for hurricanes.

People with disabilities and caregivers seeking information on accessible shelter and transportation can contact portlight.org

Atlantic City beach cam

Ocean City, MD webcam

Statue of Liberty cam

An impressive 1-minute resolution satellite loop of Sandy today is at the CSU RAMMB website.

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Late Season Tropical Storms that have affected the U.S. north of Hatteras. He also has a post, Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

Hurricane Sandy info from NASA.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Storm Surge prediction model from the Stevens Institute of Technology, which use a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows.

Research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook for New York City.

Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Sandy 1 (gwegret)
Post-Hurricane Sandy waves pound the Deerfield Beach, FL fishing pier!
Hurricane Sandy 1
Hurricane Sandy Long Neck Delaware (mal247)
On Rehoboth Bay
Hurricane Sandy Long Neck Delaware

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1082. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Having some issues with the SFMR. Showing basically 67 mph constant but surface reports and doppler shows 90.

Time: 20:36:00Z
Coordinates: 38.2N 74.2833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.1 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,057 meters (~ 3,468 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 958.9 mb (~ 28.32 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 290° at 79 knots (From the WNW at ~ 90.8 mph)
Air Temp: 4.3°C (~ 39.7°F)
Dew Pt: 1.9°C (~ 35.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 81 knots (~ 93.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 59 knots (~ 67.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 6 mm/hr (~ 0.24 in/hr)


Rain messing with it probably.
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Water rising faster.



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God dang though......116 mph flight level winds on the last pass. Wow is all I can say.


When it really starts mixing with that front more over land more of that is going to mix down. Mainly in the form of gusts however, sustained will drop but these gusts could get up into the 110's. Yikes.
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1078. help4u
Alot of mis-information put out on this blog by experts today,say one thing then change it a couple hours later.
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1077. Dakster
The battery has already hit 8' earlier today... Currently 7.75 FT and pressure down to 967.0 MB.

This could be the push to 11'... hopefully not... Hopefully an early arrival means it beats high tide.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


The surge is the main case, and the wind issue will only be shortened by a few hours. That's still enough to do damage.



Without a doubt but I did want to clarify what Angela was saying a second ago.
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A tidal surge is now entering the mouth new york harbor, coming into Sandy Hook. It was just low tide but the tide is now at the level of the last high tide, and it will reach record levels in the next 90 minutes:

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo =phi&gage=sdhn4

Mirror:

http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plotcomp.shtml?st ation_info=8531680+Sandy+Hook,+NJ+&flag=0
Member Since: December 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 134
Quoting acl8610:

The hurricane center is/was only part of a larger circulation now, the strongest winds are quickly spreading out, hence the water in long island sound is rising quickly, windows breaking in Mass from the winds, etc; the circulation is spreading out super quickly, heck even the winds in Ohio are increasing...




Conditions in eastern WV have gotten a little worse. We have gotten 2.5 inches of rain already, and supposed to turn to snow overnight and back to rain tomorrow. Wind is not bad yet, 10 mph gusting to 20-25 so no problem with that yet. I am currently 180 miles west of Ocean City so we have not even started getting the worse of this. There is a flood warning already issued. And, it is a balmy 38 degrees out there to blow around that cold rain. Nasty afternoon!
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Beach berms being breached on long island currently..
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Plane is heading into the coc again:

20:42:30Z 38.450N 74.267W 843.4 mb
(~ 24.91 inHg) 1,017 meters
(~ 3,337 feet) 952.1 mb
(~ 28.12 inHg) - From 321° at 61 knots
(From the NW at ~ 70.1 mph)



I am thinking our central pressure is up to 942
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Meanwhile 500 miles north, officials are urging evacuations east of Route 1 in Wells, Maine.
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Quoting DataNerd:



Again please read the NHC update I posted not once but twice.


Speed change will not really affect the surge scenario at this point but it may reduce other effects.


The surge is the main case, and the wind issue will only be shortened by a few hours. That's still enough to do damage.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24484
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Please, look at post 1043. That's for New York City, the red is the observed, the black is the forecast. The observed has been dead on with the forecast, and how high is the forecast predicted to go? Above 11 feet. That is not going to change, the storm is generating tropical storm force winds for hundreds of miles, and that's going to stay like that for over a day. Why? This thing is absolutely massive.



Again please read the NHC update I posted not once but twice.


Speed change will not really affect the surge scenario at this point but it may reduce other effects.
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Well, Sandy Hook, New Jersey will definitely receive a new meaning after the storm.
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1065. ncstorm
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Please, look at post 1043. That's for New York City, the red is the observed, the black is the forecast. The observed has been dead on with the forecast, and how high is the forecast predicted to go? Above 11 feet. That is not going to change, the storm is generating tropical storm force winds for hundreds of miles, and that's going to stay like that for over a day. Why? This thing is absolutely massive.


I really hope you are wrong Teddy:)..Im out till later..
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Sounds pretty bad for a clear non-event for you guys like some are saying! In all seriousness though, please keep safe.
PSE&G at 4pm has 12,000 outages in Bergen County, and 15,000 outages in Passaic. As I was saying, we are doing pretty well here in North Jersey. The projection was for 640,000 outages in this region.
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As reported by TWC.
Radar shows the transformation of the storm (non tropical). You can see a frontal boundry (separating tropical air from cold air) formation on radar along the coast.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8232
Current Live recon data:

20:28:00Z 37.833N 74.283W 843.4 mb
(~ 24.91 inHg) 1,113 meters
(~ 3,652 feet) 966.3 mb
(~ 28.53 inHg) - From 273° at 83 knots
(From the W at ~ 95.4 mph) 2.3°C
(~ 36.1°F) 0.2°C
(~ 32.4°F) 85 knots
(~ 97.7 mph) 65 knots
(~ 74.8 mph) 4 mm/hr
(~ 0.16 in/hr) 63.5 knots (~ 73.0 mph)
Tropical Storm 76.5%
20:28:30Z 37.867N 74.283W 843.3 mb
(~ 24.90 inHg) 1,111 meters
(~ 3,645 feet) 965.8 mb
(~ 28.52 inHg) - From 274° at 84 knots
(From the W at ~ 96.6 mph) 2.3°C
(~ 36.1°F) -0.2°C
(~ 31.6°F) 86 knots
(~ 98.9 mph) 63 knots
(~ 72.4 mph) 4 mm/hr
(~ 0.16 in/hr) 61.5 knots (~ 70.8 mph)
Tropical Storm 73.3%
20:29:00Z 37.883N 74.283W 843.0 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,108 meters
(~ 3,635 feet) 965.5 mb
(~ 28.51 inHg) - From 275° at 82 knots
(From the W at ~ 94.3 mph) 2.2°C
(~ 36.0°F) -0.2°C
(~ 31.6°F) 84 knots
(~ 96.6 mph) 61 knots
(~ 70.1 mph) 6 mm/hr
(~ 0.24 in/hr) 59.5 knots (~ 68.5 mph)
Tropical Storm 72.6%
20:29:30Z 37.900N 74.283W 842.4 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,111 meters
(~ 3,645 feet) 964.9 mb
(~ 28.49 inHg) - From 277° at 79 knots
(From the W at ~ 90.8 mph) 2.2°C
(~ 36.0°F) 0.2°C
(~ 32.4°F) 84 knots
(~ 96.6 mph) 62 knots
(~ 71.3 mph) 6 mm/hr
(~ 0.24 in/hr) 58.3 knots (~ 67.1 mph)
Tropical Storm 73.8%
20:30:00Z 37.933N 74.283W 843.2 mb
(~ 24.90 inHg) 1,100 meters
(~ 3,609 feet) 964.7 mb
(~ 28.49 inHg) - From 277° at 84 knots
(From the W at ~ 96.6 mph) 1.0°C*
(~ 33.8°F*) 1.0°C*
(~ 33.8°F*) 87 knots
(~ 100.0 mph) 62 knots
(~ 71.3 mph) 5 mm/hr
(~ 0.20 in/hr) 59.9 knots (~ 68.8 mph)
Tropical Storm 71.3%
20:30:30Z 37.950N 74.283W 841.9 mb
(~ 24.86 inHg) 1,107 meters
(~ 3,632 feet) 964.3 mb
(~ 28.48 inHg) - From 275° at 80 knots
(From the W at ~ 92.0 mph) 1.7°C
(~ 35.1°F) 1.6°C
(~ 34.9°F) 84 knots
(~ 96.6 mph) 60 knots
(~ 69.0 mph) 5 mm/hr
(~ 0.20 in/hr) 57.1 knots (~ 65.7 mph)
Tropical Storm 71.4%
20:31:00Z 37.967N 74.283W 843.0 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,098 meters
(~ 3,602 feet) 963.9 mb
(~ 28.46 inHg) - From 278° at 80 knots
(From the W at ~ 92.0 mph) 1.9°C
(~ 35.4°F) 1.6°C
(~ 34.9°F) 81 knots
(~ 93.1 mph) 61 knots
(~ 70.1 mph) 7 mm/hr
(~ 0.28 in/hr) 60.2 knots (~ 69.3 mph)
Tropical Storm 75.3%
20:31:30Z 38.000N 74.283W 842.2 mb
(~ 24.87 inHg) 1,100 meters
(~ 3,609 feet) 963.6 mb
(~ 28.46 inHg) - From 278° at 80 knots
(From the W at ~ 92.0 mph) 1.9°C
(~ 35.4°F) 1.5°C
(~ 34.7°F) 82 knots
(~ 94.3 mph) 63 knots
(~ 72.4 mph) 6 mm/hr
(~ 0.24 in/hr) 61.5 knots (~ 70.7 mph)
Tropical Storm 76.8%
20:32:00Z 38.017N 74.283W 842.9 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,088 meters
(~ 3,570 feet) 963.1 mb
(~ 28.44 inHg) - From 280° at 78 knots
(From the W at ~ 89.7 mph) 2.2°C
(~ 36.0°F) 1.7°C
(~ 35.1°F) 81 knots
(~ 93.1 mph) 61 knots
(~ 70.1 mph) 6 mm/hr
(~ 0.24 in/hr) 58.7 knots (~ 67.6 mph)
Tropical Storm 75.3%
20:32:30Z 38.050N 74.283W 842.6 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,092 meters
(~ 3,583 feet) 962.6 mb
(~ 28.43 inHg) - From 282° at 80 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 92.0 mph) 2.3°C
(~ 36.1°F) 1.2°C
(~ 34.2°F) 81 knots
(~ 93.1 mph) 61 knots
(~ 70.1 mph) 6 mm/hr
(~ 0.24 in/hr) 60.2 knots (~ 69.3 mph)
Tropical Storm 75.3%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
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Here in Ontario, we are under wind warnings, and this update from the Canadian Hurricane Center:

Rain directly related to post-tropical Sandy will begin to affect Southern Ontario later this afternoon with the heaviest bands reaching the province this evening and overnight into Tuesday. Latest indications are that general amounts of 20 to 40 millimetres are forecast with locally higher amounts in excess of 50 millimetres (2 inches) possible.

The Ontario storm prediction centre has issued wind warnings for adjacent areas of the St Lawrence Valley as well as other parts of Southern Ontario
for high wind gusts beginning later tonight and continuing on Tuesday.

Northerly winds are increasing over Southern Ontario. These Winds will continue to increase this evening and gusts to 90 km/h or higher are likely especially along Western Lake Ontario and the
Niagara Escarpment as well as areas adjacent to Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. These wind gusts have the potential to cause broken tree limbs or in some cases uprooted trees which may result in
Downed utility lines. Residual falling leaves can also obstruct storm water drainage systems along roadways particularly in urban areas. This combined with heavy rainfall could increase the risk of
flooding in some areas.

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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Al Roker on the beach (standing on the dunes) at Point Pleasant N.J. during landfall of Sandy. You wouldn't try that during a strong hurricane or you'd be killed.


It is NOT landfall of Sandy. What part of "it won't be ashore for 3-5 hours" is so difficult to understand for some people?
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Watch this page.

http://tidesonline.noaa.gov/plotcomp.shtml?statio n_info=8518750+The+Battery,+NY

This will tell us whether the expected surge is affected by the slightly faster landfall of Sandy. I think most of us are really hoping it does not continue up to the levels expected, but we'll just have to wait and see. As with Irene, if this turns out to have been less damage than expected, I will celebrate, not complain about the preparation.
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Quoting ncstorm:


because this was not expected..TWC even said that..she wasnt supposed to make landfall until later tonight..thats good because she wont come in at the peak of high tide..yes, there will be flooding and surge but not as much as predicted..even Dr. Masters went down on his percentage with the flooding of the NY subways..


Please, look at post 1043. That's for New York City, the red is the observed, the black is the forecast. The observed has been dead on with the forecast, and how high is the forecast predicted to go? Above 11 feet. That is not going to change, the storm is generating tropical storm force winds for hundreds of miles, and that's going to stay like that for over a day. Why? This thing is absolutely massive. I'm not trying to be aggressive, but this is a serious situation that is evolving. People are looking at the news right now and thinking 'the worst has clearly hit us, the storm has made landfall, we're in the clear!', when clearly the situation couldn't be far more different.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24484
Quoting RitaEvac:


That's probably what'll happen....then they will get blown away when they go on as business as usual. Only way man will learn.


I keep thinking about falling glass - I've seen a whole lot of high rise buildings with their windows blown out after storms, and east coast big cities, NYC especially, is vulnerable to the winds. I wouldn't want to be under one of those buildings whent he windows go.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


This is expected, at least if you're looking at the storm surge forecasts. Even when this hurricane goes inland, there will be 50kt winds still pushing into NY, causing surge. The storm surge forecast has been dead on accurate so far, and the surge is now starting to increase. There is no reason, absolutely none, to think that won't continue to be the case.


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You guys act like Sandy moving in three hours earlier makes such a big difference? Uh hello..? Remember the storm has a 1000-mile wind field? The storm will be pushing water into the Northeast coastline through tomorrow afternoon.


Quoted for accurate, sensible information. For anyone that may be influenced by misguided comments that tell you Sandy has already delivered her biggest blow...please read comments like these. The worst is yet to come. Sandy's storm surge hasn't even began to reach that point. High tide is just hours away, near hurricane force winds will occur throughout this period and beyond, and additional baroclinic energy injected into the storm due to extratropical transition and a mid level jet maximum will allow her to cause extreme damage through wind and water through tonight and tomorrow.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I have no idea why she would say that.



Because this just came out:


000
WTNT63 KNHC 291956
TCUAT3

HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
400 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...CENTER OF SANDY MOVING TOWARD CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS EVENING...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.6N 74.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

LATEST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...
AS WELL AS NOAA DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE THAT SANDY
IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY OR CENTRAL DELAWARE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Read my recon data as well.
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1054. MZT
Outermost cirrus from this storm are pushing into Wisconsin and Illinois. Unreal!
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WOW insane wind gust just now!! I've never felt anything like that before, aside from around 4AM during Irene when I thought our house would blow away. Wow!
Member Since: September 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 141
Al Roker on the beach (standing on the dunes) at Point Pleasant N.J. during landfall of Sandy. You wouldn't try that during a strong hurricane or you'd be killed.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8232
New Recon Vortex Data, winds are up again 101kt flight level!!

roduct: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 19:46Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 24
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 19:17:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 38°29'N 73°45'W (38.4833N 73.75W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 71 miles (115 km) to the SSE (149°) from Atlantic City, NJ, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 870m (2,854ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 77 nautical miles (89 statute miles) to the NNW (348°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 59° at 101kts (From the ENE at ~ 116.2mph)Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 59° at 101kts (From the ENE at ~ 116.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 75 nautical miles (86 statute miles) to the NNW (348°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 941mb (27.79 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 101kts (~ 116.2mph) in the north quadrant at 18:54:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
FIXED NEAR TIP OF CONVECTIVE FEATURE




Sfmr lower but we already are seeing 80 mph wind reports so it hardly matters.
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1050. ncstorm
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I have no idea why she would say that.


because this was not expected..TWC even said that..she wasnt supposed to make landfall until later tonight..thats good because she wont come in at the peak of high tide..yes, there will be flooding and surge but not as much as predicted..even Dr. Masters went down on his percentage with the flooding of the NY subways..
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Going Up.


Forecasted to peak above 11 feet, and the observed has been 100% dead on with the forecast line. Yet some people are treating it like we're in the worst right now. The worst has yet to come with this one.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24484
1047. ncstorm
Quoting Lonewulf:


Angela Fritz Angela Fritz ‏@WunderAngela

Sandy is approaching the coast much faster than expected. This is actually a good thing for a lot of people along the eastern seaboard.

That's why some people think it makes a difference.


exactly..
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1046. jt2
Battery Park Water Level Link http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plotcomp.shtml?sta tion_info=8518750+The+Battery%2C+NY#

7.45 and rising. Tops over at 8 right @ 10 the subways become jeapardy ?
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Quoting leftlink:


The reason the power is still on here in MA is the Halloween snowstorm last year that removed half of the branches from most of the leafy trees. Rain bands here in northern MA have only started in the 90 minutes.
From 3-4, Northern MA got slammed, a band is located just north of Boston, which caused a 62mph Gust in Boston
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 701
Quoting Lonewulf:


Angela Fritz Angela Fritz ‏@WunderAngela

Sandy is approaching the coast much faster than expected. This is actually a good thing for a lot of people along the eastern seaboard.

That's why some people think it makes a difference.

I have no idea why she would say that.
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Going Up.
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Updated wind radii graphic

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Big waves right now... and howling winds.

And I'm way up here in Halifax!

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1039. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting DataNerd:




A lot more than that I would say. We still have to deal with all the effects of this thing in the coming days, and the fact that rain will continue for two or three days.


the effects and there results
will take days before we truly know
damage is being done and water still yet to rise
as the water tries to follow the storm inland

be wed before we get a real full account of whats been done


1015. Kristina40 8:28 PM GMT on October 29, 2012 +0
Close of the season? Doesn't the season run til the end of November?



in my opinion yeah its pretty much done

this one has change up the atomsphere big time
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1038. acl8610
Quoting acl8610:

The hurricane center is/was only part of a larger circulation now, the strongest winds are quickly spreading out, hence the water in long island sound is rising quickly, windows breaking in Mass from the winds, etc; the circulation is spreading out super quickly, heck even the winds in Ohio are increasing...
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National Hurricane Center pre 5 pm Advisory package

WTNT63 KNHC 291956
TCUAT3

HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
400 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...CENTER OF SANDY MOVING TOWARD CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS EVENING...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.6N 74.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

LATEST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...
AS WELL AS NOAA DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE THAT SANDY
IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY OR CENTRAL DELAWARE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS.
THAT SANDY
IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY OR CENTRAL DELAWARE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You guys act like Sandy moving in three hours earlier makes such a big difference? Uh hello..? Remember the storm has a 1000-mile wind field? The storm will be pushing water into the Northeast coastline through tomorrow afternoon.


Angela Fritz Angela Fritz ‏@WunderAngela

Sandy is approaching the coast much faster than expected. This is actually a good thing for a lot of people along the eastern seaboard.

That's why some people think it makes a difference.
Member Since: September 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
1035. Dakster
Quoting wilsongti45:
Its a galaxy 3s. Cool feature


Sure sounds like it. Thanks.
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1034. acl8610
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Huh? This is expected, you're looking at this hurricane as being confined to one area, when clearly it's not. Even when this hurricane goes inland, there will be 50kt winds still pushing into NY, causing surge. The storm surge forecast has been dead on accurate so far, and the surge is now starting to increase. There is no reason, absolutely none, to think that won't continue to be the case.

The hurricane center is/was only part of a larger circulation now, the strongest winds are quickly spreading out, hence the water in long island sound is rising quickly, windows breaking in Mass from the winds, etc; the circulation is spreading out super quickly, heck even the winds in Ohio are increasing...
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1033. MZT
Go browsing the weather observations around the country and it's amazing how far west Sandy is affecting weather patterns. Even Alabama and Michigan make mention of high winds in the discussion. This is what EPIC means.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Winds continue to be the big story up here, only picked up a little over an inch of rain, but wind gusts over 60mph have knocked out power to tens of thousands up here... not me yet though :)


The reason the power is still on here in MA is the Halloween snowstorm last year that removed half of the branches from most of the leafy trees. Rain bands here in northern MA have only started in the 90 minutes.
Member Since: December 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 134

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.