Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Superstorm Sandy intensifying, bringing record storm surges

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:54 PM GMT on October 29, 2012

+63

The final countdown to Hurricane Sandy's arrival has begun, and this extraordinary and historic storm is already causing havoc all along the U.S. coast from North Carolina to Massachusetts. The scale of this massive storm truly earns Sandy the title of "superstorm". Sandy's tropical storm-force winds span an area of ocean 940 miles in diameter, and both North Carolina and the island of Bermuda, 700 miles to the east, are under tropical storm warnings. The region of ocean covered by 12-foot high seas spans an area of ocean an incredible 1560 miles in diameter. Winds near hurricane force are expected to affect waters from Virginia to Massachusetts today. Record storm surge flooding has already occurred in regions along the New Jersey coast this morning, and the highest water levels recorded in over a century of record keeping are expected over much of the New Jersey and New York coasts this evening during the 8 - 9 pm EDT high tide cycle. Sandy brought sustained winds of 60 mph and waves 30 feet high early this morning to the buoy east of Cape Hatteras, NC. A wind gust of 58 mph occurred at New York City's La Guardia Airport at 9:51 am EDT, and a buoy at Robins Reef, NJ recorded sustained winds of 42 mph, gusting to 55 mph. As of 8 am EDT, Sandy has dumped heavy rains of 7.87" at Cape Hatteras, NC; 4.01" at Ocean City, MD; 3.12" at Dover, DE; and 3.22" at Virginia Beach, VA. As of 9 am EDT, peak storm surge values of 5" were observed at Lewes, Delaware, 4.2' at Cape May, NJ, 4' at Atlantic City, NJ, 2.9' at Philadelphia, and 3.9' at New York City.

Latest data from the Hurricane Hunters shows that Sandy is intensifying as its core traverses the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. At 8 am EDT, an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found top winds of 98 mph in the heavy thunderstorms to the southwest of Sandy's center, at a point about 150 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. A dropsonde released in the eye measured a central pressure of 945 mb, but observed winds of 19 knots at the surface, so Sandy is probably a 943 mb hurricane that is very close to Category 2 strength. The Hurricane Hunters did not observe an eyewall, and saw very little temperature difference from inside to outside the eye, so Sandy is not going to be able to undergo rapid intensification. The storm could still see an increase of 5 mph in its winds before landfall tonight between 6 pm - 10 pm EDT, due, in part, to interaction with the low pressure system to its west that is pulling the hurricane towards the coast. The new, higher winds of Sandy don't have a lot of time to pile up additional storm surge water, so the NHC storm surge forecasts will probably not change today. But it is clear that Sandy is not going to pull its punch, and this superstorm is going to deliver a punishing multi-billion dollar blow to a huge area of the Eastern U.S.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Sandy.

Sandy already producing a record storm surge
The National Weather Service in Atlantic City, NJ said that isolated record storm surge flooding already occurred along portions of the New Jersey coast with this morning's 7:30 am EDT high tide cycle. As the tide goes out late this morning and this afternoon, water levels will fall, since the difference in water levels between low tide and high tide is about 5'. However, this evening, as the core of Sandy moves ashore, the storm will carry with it a gigantic bulge of water that will raise waters levels to the highest storm tides ever seen in over a century of record keeping, along much of the coastline of New Jersey and New York. The peak danger will be between 7 pm - 10 pm, when storm surge rides in on top of the high tide. The full moon is today, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month, adding another 2 - 3" to water levels. This morning's 9:30 am EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.9 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was record high: 5.8 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed since 1969, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy's storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' and a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy's storm surge is expected to be 10 - 12' above MLLW. Since a storm tide of 10.5' is needed to flood the subway system, it appears likely that portions of the NYC subway system will flood. The record highest storm tide at The Battery was 10.5', set on September 15, 1960, during Hurricane Donna.

Figure 2. Observed storm tide (red line) and predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at The Battery on the south shore of Manhattan, New York City, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory (green line) and the NYHOPS model from the Stevens Institute of Technology (pink curve), which uses a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows. These models have a storm surge of 5 - 6', which brings the maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--to 11' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.) Irene brought a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to The Battery in 2011. At a storm tide of 10.5', water will likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. The NWS in NYC is predicting a 10 - 12' storm tide at The Battery during tonight's 9 pm high tide cycle.

Figure 3. Observed storm tide (red line) and predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at Atlantic City, New Jersey, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory (green line) and the NYHOPS model from the Stevens Institute of Technology (pink curve), which uses a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows. These models predict a maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--of ' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.) Irene brought a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to The Battery in 2011. At a storm tide of 10.5', water will likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. The NWS in Atlantic City is predicting a 9.5' storm tide for the city during tonight's 8 pm high tide cycle, which would be the highest water levels ever observed in Atlantic City.

Links for Sandy
To find out if you need to evacuate, please contact your local emergency management office. They will have the latest information. People living in New York City can find their evacuation zone here or use this map. FEMA has information on preparing for hurricanes.

People with disabilities and caregivers seeking information on accessible shelter and transportation can contact portlight.org

Atlantic City beach cam

Ocean City, MD webcam

Statue of Liberty cam

An impressive 1-minute resolution satellite loop of Sandy today is at the CSU RAMMB website.

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Late Season Tropical Storms that have affected the U.S. north of Hatteras. He also has a post, Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

Hurricane Sandy info from NASA.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Storm Surge prediction model from the Stevens Institute of Technology, which use a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows.

Research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook for New York City.

Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Sandy 1 (gwegret)

Post-Hurricane Sandy waves pound the Deerfield Beach, FL fishing pier!

Hurricane Sandy Long Neck Delaware (mal247)

On Rehoboth Bay

Categories: Hurricane

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1501. charlottefl 10:44 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Stu Ostro ‏@StuOstro Extreme, rapid rise in surge level at Kings Point NY gauge on western end of LI Sound #Sandy pic.twitter.com/90mc2yg9 Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672

1502. AussieStorm 10:44 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting leftlink: 10.81 feet at 6:06pm at Sandy Hook, the time of the measurement is available at the hydrologic prediction page. 11.28ft now Link Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13359

1503. charlottefl 10:44 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
10.55' at the battery now Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672

1504. oceanspringsMS 10:45 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting NoloContendere: The incompetence in Katrina was the Governor, the New Orleans Mayor, and a boat load of other corrupt local officials in Louisiana. Katrina hit Mississippi far worse than New Orleans, but the elected officials there did a far better job. Amazing how some of you chuckleheads are still bleating on about the "incompetence" you fantasized was happening at the federal level. I'll bet you still believe there was cannibalism going on in the Dome. Snicker. I was there and you are wrong. Are you a Bush apologist? FEMA's response was late and weak. On the upside, however, I do think they have learned from their mistakes, based on their response to storms in the last six years Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 57

1505. eyesontheweather 10:45 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting Dakster: Yes a movie ship sunk and it looks like two people could have drowned. The Name of the ship is the Boubty. It was made for the movie. It has been converted to a comercial fishing vessal. The 15th person was found and is a neice of a friend of mine. Wonder what "unresposive" means Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 613

1506. AussieStorm 10:46 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting charlottefl: Stu Ostro ‏@StuOstro Extreme, rapid rise in surge level at Kings Point NY gauge on western end of LI Sound #Sandy pic.twitter.com/90mc2yg9 Kings point now at 11.73ft Link Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13359

1507. leftlink 10:46 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
moved to new blog Member Since: December 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 100

1508. NoloContendere 10:47 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Since you were there, I'm sure you're aware of the hospital ship that followed Katrina in and did rescues, right? And you're aware that some of the roads and bridges to NO were cut, right? Or that an early federal response required the idiot Governor to do something, right? And that Bush called said idiot Governor several times pleading with her to invoke federal aid in advance, right? As did the other Governors in the area. There's a multi state mutual aid pact, but the afore mentioned idiot Governor couldn't manage to join in. But go ahead and whine about Bush all you like. Quoting DataNerd: Scuse me but I recognize large amounts of the problem were local officials. I live in Texas and was in NO for Katrina so believe me I know. However, there were federal problems. The Fema head was a moron and Bush delayed sending in federal troops by two days, that was a bad decision. But I am not going to start politics on here, lets pay attention to the crisis at hand instead of one long past. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 43

1509. 1900hurricane 10:47 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
If this barometer is accurate, its 945.5 mb reading means that the Long Island Express's record for lowest pressure north of Cape Hatteras has been broken. That one was 946 mb. Link Edited to add the link Member Since:* August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10369

1510. vanwx 10:48 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I have no idea why she would say that. The ideais that the longer it parks off shore the larger the surge. Member Since: February 6, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 124

1511. charlottefl 10:49 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Battery now at 10.69' Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672

1512. BahaHurican 10:50 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Evening everyone. Bush was an angel. The storms are the devil... .... but SERiously... This is looking pretty bad for the east coast from VA to MA, at least in terms of storm surge damage if nothing else. The wind reports near the centre also suggest a lot of damage from downed trees can be expected. Not very happy-making at all... Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17676

1513. Hurricane12 10:51 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting charlottefl: Battery now at 10.69' Isn't Jim Cantore in Batty Park? Member Since: August 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 115

1514. ConnecticutWXGuy 10:52 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Looks like it stalled out right at the coast according to radar, anyone else seeing this? Maybe in the midst of a little loop or something Member Since: November 17, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 521

1515. charlottefl 10:52 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting Hurricane12: Isn't Jim Cantore in Batty Park? He was supposed to be haven't seen any post though. I do know the East river is over it's banks now.. Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672

1517. CaicosRetiredSailor 10:55 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!!!?!!!! NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!!!?!!!! Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5137

1518. charlottefl 10:55 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
South Street is under water. Transformers are blowing at the South st sea port... Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2672

1519. EricSpittle 10:56 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
11.09' at sandy hook now, this is a terrifying storm and doesn't look to be letting up surge wise. Wind here in Binghamton, NY now getting more sustained and heavier, my educated guess is 10-20 sustained with gusts in the 40s locally, but i do not have an anenometer. Member Since: October 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 122

1520. cornchucker 10:58 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Transformer explosions being heard from South Ferry subway station here in lower Manhattan. Member Since: August 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 29

1521. twoclippedwings 10:58 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting stormchaser19: Oh mother of ....Lynn, Massachussetts Looks like Shore Dr, Winthrop MA to me, lived there several years. Great photo. Member Since: September 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

1522. Greyelf 11:03 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Yeesh ....94 mph in NYC? I sure hope that busted crane hangs on. And, Msdrown, NBC Nightly News just had a story on the sunk ship. It was a replica ship called Bounty last used in the last Pirates of the Carribean movie. It lost all power and started to take on water, ultimately sinking. No clue why it was even out on the water. Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 18 Comments: 838

1523. 2ifbyC 11:11 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Maybe someday you'll be on vacation in a country whose language you don't speak, in the middle of a climate crisis, like a super-hurricane, and you'll see what's it like to try and set up a survival scenario. (Sorry, I'll be in the doghouse now for ranting...) First off, I'd be there legally! Second, if I didn't have the personality to garner local help, then I wouldn't go back there, given I survived. If they didn't have 'dial 2 for English' could I go to their Supreme Court with a gripe? (Ya got room for me in your doghouse?) Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 246

1524. EricSpittle 11:12 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
11.35' in Sandy Hook as of 30 mimutes ago, keeps climbing it seems. Surely this storm was overhyped right? Record was 10.1 ft. Hope everyone on the coast is being safe tonight, good luck all. Member Since: October 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 122

1525. MZT 11:13 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5: It was raining in my area of Raleigh (SE side) earlier, but it haven't done so since about 8 am in the morning. One thing for sure is that the weather felt COLD today and the heavy winds isn't helping. It's a breezy, chilly mist here in Charlotte. Feels like a winter storm. I bet the mountains will get socked with snow tonight. Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 775

1526. EricSpittle 11:18 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
11.69' now, basically a third of a foot in 15 minutes. Member Since: October 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 122

1528. MZT 11:21 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Finally heading to the new blog... :-P Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 775

1529. Hurricane12 11:23 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting charlottefl: He was supposed to be haven't seen any post though. I do know the East river is over it's banks now.. Yeah, I haven't seen any reports from him, either. I meant Battery Park, by the way. Totally missed my mistake, lol. :p Member Since: August 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 115

1530. aspectre 12:15 AM GMT on October 30, 2012
According to the NationalHurricaneCenter's IntermediateAdvisory... 8:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 29 Location: 39.4N 74.5W Moving: WNW at 23 mph Min pressure: 946 mb Max sustained: 80 mph 31E-EagleswoodTownship :: AIY-AtlanticCity :: WAL-WallopsIsland ....PostTropicalHurricaneSandy made landfall on AtlanticCity Click this link to the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map with more info And the previous mapping for comparison Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

1531. MercForHire 12:43 AM GMT on October 30, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian: I think new York got vary lucky cant say for that DC When did Sandy end? Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 139

1532. bluheelrtx 1:53 AM GMT on October 30, 2012
Quoting Hurricane12: Yeah, I haven't seen any reports from him, either. I meant Battery Park, by the way. Totally missed my mistake, lol. :p It was funnier before. Member Since: November 8, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 220

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