Tropical Storm Gamma next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on November 10, 2005

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The tropics remain quiet today. Strong westerly winds blowing across the Caribbean are creating up to 80 knots of shear, making tropical storm development very unlikely for the next two or three days. However, all of the models are forecasting that these strong winds will relax and shear values will drop dramatically across the central Caribbean by Tuesday. The persistent area of low pressure and storminess that has affected the ocean areas between Panama and Nicaragua the past three weeks will expand. The GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models all indicate that a tropical storm may form in the south central Caribbean by the middle of next week.


Figure 1. GFS model forecast seven days from now, showing a tropical storm with copious rainfall (bright green colors) forming in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

It is highly uncertain what land areas might be at risk if such a development does occur. The three main possibilities would be:

1) A track like Hurricane Beta into Nicaragua.

2) A track like Hurricane Michelle in 2001, which struck southern Cuba then passed northeastwards through the Bahamas.

3) A track like "Wrong-Way Lenny" of 1999, the only hurricane ever recorded that took an extended west-to-east path through the Caribbean.

Anything that works its way far enough north is going to get picked up and quickly recurved northeastward by one of the many troughs of low pressure migrating across North America. This means that except for a low threat to South Florida, the U.S. would not be at risk. Additionally, given that there has only ever been one storm knicknamed "Wrong-Way", the eastern Caribbean would probably not be at risk, either. I'll be able to spend my vacation in Puerto Rico next week at the beach, instead of taking shelter at the Internet Cafe and writing blog entries. The primary area at risk would be Nicaragua, Honduras, Cuba, Hispanolia, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands.

I'll be back with an update tomorrow morning. Remember that the computer models are rather poor at forecasting tropical storm development, and nothing at all may develop next week. But given that this is the Hurricane Season of 2005, I'd give at least 50/50 odds we'll see a Tropical Storm Gamma by late next week in the central Caribbean.

Jeff Masters

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46. LpAngelRob
2:24 PM GMT on November 11, 2005
Re: First Posts

I don't know. They're annoying. Just mark it as spam and hope that some moderator ever gets around to deleting them. :-)
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 41
45. billsfaninsofla
3:07 AM GMT on November 11, 2005
dinky....I'm in Wilton Manors....same here, some type of tornadic activity or a vortese (sp?) ..must gave come through, lifted grapefruit tree on top of house, ripped flat deck off, landing it 4 doors down in their pool....pulled up dozens of barrel tiles, roofer here today he's seen barrel tile make it 80 years..I'm tired of waiting for insurance to reply, we have to give someone a deposit to get on a list! I heard a strange story...maybe you saw it, a family in Oakland Park, when they turned on a stove a lamp went on, a bathroom light, something else lit up...... hang in there Dinky......have you had insurance come out yet and if you need a mold inspector let me know.I can recommend someone...has it really only been 2 1/2 weeks?
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5576
44. dinky
1:36 AM GMT on November 11, 2005
stormman,
i met some people while in the hotel wiht wilma and mentioned that we were thinking of texas and she was from rockwall she says shes never had a tornadoe. are there any links that state exact location ect of tornadoes so i can see the best areas?
43. StormMan
1:21 AM GMT on November 11, 2005
Dinky,

Better re-think Rockwall, TX, I lived there once upon a time and we had a waterspout/tornado rip things up quite a bit, I remember 25' boats flying in the air...we lived just up the hill from Lake Ray Hubbard. Tornados occur there with some frequency.

You might consider San Antonio which has tornados occasionally but not too bad.

-StormMan
Member Since: August 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 61
42. dinky
12:32 AM GMT on November 11, 2005
billsfaninsofla: We are in Davie off Hiatus and 84. We are in a manufactured home. bought it 6 months ago. As far as temp housing Yeah right, we tarped up and ripped out all the wet insulation and carpet and closed off the worst rooms with bags and tape and are sitting on the floor of the playroom.kitchen area. my kids rooms were soso my sons had minor damage my daughters ceiling started falling down so we dont let her go in there only to get something quick and our room did the best a bit of the ceiling started to go and funny enough the bathroom light was loosened and is all cracked around the rim and didnt work for the first few days but now it does? But there is no temp housing to be had so we are making the best of it here. If we even saw a mild tropical storm here at this point i might as well kiss it all goodbye because the tarp will only hold on so long and once thats off forget it. so, i pray for that not to happen. My neighbor stayed and said a mini tornadoe came thru here and he watched it take my house then he left:) Where exactly are you?
41. newinfl
10:24 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
Just a note regarding the insureance claim. If you ahve damage report it as Flordia now has a yearly hurricand deductible. If you did not have enough damage during one storm the amount will add toward your ded. for the next storm within the same year.
Member Since: August 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
40. rwdobson
10:01 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
The Hurricanes may suck, but they did knock Va Tech from the ranks of the unbeaten last week....
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
39. seflagamma
10:01 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
Greetings everyone,
Just checking in, mostly lurking when I get a chance, but I must comment on Dr Master's post!
PLEASE NO Hurricane Gamma!!Hope the models are kidding.

Our Ins. co.told us we will not be a priority and we are ok with that; people with structure damage really need help first. Our deductable is so very high that unless you have a lot more damage than the deductable your are better off not filing a claim at all around here.
We have the "FEMA Blue Tarps" all over our neighborhood for those that did not replaced their roofs recently.
We did find a company replacing fences and we got on his list. Hope to get him the weekend of 11/20th. Very tired of sitting in my patio (that use to be screened in") and being able to read my neighbor behind me's cereal box as they eat breakfast! Plus see the lights from 2 streets over because there are no fences anywhere! For safety we must get something up soon because of our open pool and our dog!
Good to see everyone is taking things in stride and with a sense of humor, for the most part! LOL.. Let's all do a chant in unison "NO MORE STORMS IN FLORIDA THIS YEAR!"
Gamma
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40917
38. caneman
9:35 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
Hurricanes suck.

Period.
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 100
37. billsfaninsofla
9:18 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
Dinky.. where are you? We're in a similar situation.. half of our living room , all of kitchen/dining room area, back Fla room, all that wood is wet, moldy etc.. we figure it will all have to be removed. The kids bedrooms and their bathroom are the only rooms we don't see water damage in. We have nowhere to go.. and just try to get temporary housing in Fort Lauderdale area??? ha, ha..
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5576
36. SWFLKR
9:00 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
Everyone waiting for their insurance adjuster for Wilma damage keep on them constantly. We waited 5 weeks for our adjustor which wasn't bad compared to many. But he tried to screw us over so bad. Tried to say cracks and dents were normal part of settlement in a home built on a concrete slab. Um sure good try. Our house was shaking so bad that when the water and power came back on we had a leaks in the kitchen sink and toilet. The hot water heater had fried from a power surge. They tried to get out of that. Said therre was no way a concrete newer home could shake bad enough to break plumbing. Well last I looked hurricane shutters were suppose to break in pieces and fall off either but they did during Charley. So I would assume a loose toilet pipe and sink pipe would be logical. Makes you sick paying for insurance for years and never using it and bam you need it and what do you get. We got our new updated policy for renewal right after Charley will all types of changes. For example they have a cap on how much they pay for water damage and mold removal. Well when you have roof missing and no garage door and windows how do you keep the rain out during rainy season in August. Plus we have been told if we file another claim we will either be cancelled or rates increased for 2 yrs for any claim. Along with the FPL rate hikes and Florida cost of living is just plain too high we are moving out of the state in year or two, tops. I will miss the winter weather in Florida but its not worth it anymore and we just can't afford it much longer. Zanax will have to be in the hurricane kit along with the vodka next year LOL Oh we have a hole in our refrigerator on the bottom plastic part from a bottle of carbonated flavered water blowing up in there and falling during Charley,just amazing.
35. rwdobson
8:53 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
I think frederick seemed so bad b/c we were in a period of light tropical activity, so it really stood out in people's memories. i was living in montgomery at the time. back then, a hurricane was a once every 5 or 10 years thing, not like the last few years.
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
34. Pensacola21
8:47 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
That's about right DCW..
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
33. dcw
8:44 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
Assuming the rest of Nov. follows the pattern set by this season:

Gamma = Cape Verdes cat 5 which hits the Virgin Islands.
Delta = Caribbean Wilma/Gibert-breaking which hits Cuba.
Epsilon = Major hurricane off the coast of Maine

^^^^ The above is a joke ^^^^
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
32. Pensacola21
8:40 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
I'm glad his house fared well.. Ivan was the worst ever for us..

My mother lives here now and went through Ivan, but she says the worst hurricane she ever went through was Fredrick back in the 70's. She lived in Mobile,AL when Fredrick hit and she says that Ivan wasn't near as bad.

(Please excuse my poor typing and grammar today... I was looking over my last few blogs and ughhh! LOL)
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
31. rwdobson
8:35 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
My cousin has a house east of you, 21, closer to Ft. Walton. Opal and Ivan were the worst for his place. The house itself has always been fine, not so for the dock.
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
30. Pensacola21
8:07 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
I'd rather have it head on than a little west of us... That's what happened with Ivan - he went in to Gulf Shores..
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
29. Pensacola21
8:05 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
LOL RW- I'm just about on the AL line..
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
28. rwdobson
8:03 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
South Floridians, don't worry. The psychic says this one is headed for Alabama....
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
27. stormydee
7:44 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
well, ill talk to everyone tomorrow...have a great night! :-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
26. stormydee
7:36 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
hey 65, figured u were at the beach enjoying this weather...or was it a free lunch? LOL :-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
25. weatherdude65
7:09 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
afternoon all....
24. dinky
7:00 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
Thanks for the laughs guys, i needed that. Still awaiting payment from Ivan??? My insurance adjuster , when he shows up better have an extra room in his home ofr a family of 5 and two dogs, we lost our entire living room, dining room, portch, car port and damage to the rest. I still feel lucky because i still have one room and a kitchen to live in while i wait and some others dont. But yes, it gets annoying after a while. I think if another storm hit i might as well just drive directly to tx and stay there. I hear that rockwall , tx is great no tornadoes there or hurricanes mild winters and less humidity, not to mention 3 and 4 bedroom homes going for 80k-115k imagine being able to touch realestate somewhere in a nice area? My heart is in south florida. We will see. But back to the topic at hand, i see that little disturbance next to the bahamas when you put it in motion can you tell which way its movement is or is it to early? Hang in there to all , this too shall pass ( Eventually i hope )
23. billsfaninsofla
7:00 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
thanks Skye for the suggestions and links....
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5576
22. stormydee
6:54 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
no...no....no...
back off mama, we said go to sleep!
You better, or your gonna take a time out! (Called winter)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
21. WeatherGuy17050
6:41 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
I just do not understand what the big deal is with being "First" in these posts,can someone explain to me why people are proud to post first? Anyway I live in the Northeast in the Harrisburg Pa area so - I'm wishing for a mild winter and was hoping Dr.Masters will continue this blog as the winter comes online and we move off the hurricane season.
20. Pensacola21
6:25 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
My in-laws are still waiting for the insurance company to pay up from Ivan.. They still have a blue roof..
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
19. squeak
6:20 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
In a week, maps showing Katrina's surge level will be made available to the public online at FEMA.
18. Pensacola21
6:19 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
LOL Snowboy..
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
17. Skyepony (Mod)
6:19 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
*The gfs

Bills i feel for ya'll. I have friends & family with citizens, they were pretty slow last year. You need to keep in close contact with the insurance company, immediatly report unnoticed damage. People, look at your attics, you could be missing insulation or it's easily tossed around. Duct work is easily damaged but ya got to look close at it. Ours needed resealed at the joints. Parts had collaped inside, take off your vents use mirrors and look. Then recaulk the edges of the vent holes before you put them back on. Recaulk your whole house. The wind gets in your attic, especially if you lost soffit, pushes at every crack & widens it. ~ Back to the insurance WRITE EVERYTHING DOWN. The best of luck to ya'll.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 38206
16. snowboy
6:18 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
pensacola21 - maybe from another planet?
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
15. mouseybabe
6:12 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
dinky,

better check your local news... the price you'll pay is an FPL increase of 19.8% for fuel plus an additional Wilma hike, plus that 11% "fine" we insurance customers will be forced to pay for the greed of the insurance compaines who shelled out nice dividends to investors rather than saving for a rainy day...

so when the Wilma hike hits, it'll be the fourth one in about a year...

just an aside...i worked construction back in '73 laying underground pvc pipes for the utilities for Coral Springs...my foreman told us that FPL was going to bury cables every year until they were all underground...think how different things would be now if they had done so...

gotta go try to force home depot to take back the generator that was supposed to be 5500W but stalled if it had to power more than a 60W light bulb! they say they won't take it back because i put oil and gas in it...maybe psychic helane could have told me it wouldn't work properly, but i had to crank it up to know...

and this is paradise?
14. Skyepony (Mod)
6:07 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
The gfs (scroll right hit forward)~ so this this is why Tom Terry was so adimite the tropics would remain quiet at noon. Snowbirds come on, hurricane season is done! Nagaps shows the development off the tail of a cold front. The ukmet shows the development happening much more east ~ enough to possibly make Dr Master's trip a storm chasing event.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 38206
13. billsfaninsofla
5:39 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
Dinky.. I hear you and echo your sentiments. From what I'm hearing I'm lucky because I have had an adjustor from Citizens already out. However, the damage is growing and is much worse than the day he was out. We haven't heard a word from insurance since. I can't imagine facing the prospect of another storm. No way... although the roof is tarped and seemingly secure, no way the tarps could hold up to any type of tropical system. Just a threat of a storm possibly coming here, I can't imagine what this area would be like.
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5576
12. Pensacola21
5:36 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
Anyway, back to work for me..

See you guys later :-)
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
11. Pensacola21
5:35 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
I wouldn't rule out anything this year. Especially if I lived in SFL.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
10. Pensacola21
5:33 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
Caneman - Tell it like it is!!!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
9. Pensacola21
5:31 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
Snowboy - I think he is from another country?
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
8. caneman
5:26 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
Just say NO to tropical blobs, storms, ULL, and other assorted tropical stuff.

Tis time to MOVE on mother nature. We've had enough!

Death to all Tropical Blobs.
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 100
7. snowboy
5:15 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
8888888889gg - if you'd like a meaningful response to your posts then they need to be more or less coherent
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
6. StormMan
4:41 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
Hey dinky,

try this link:

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&modelrun=0&map=SURPRE&time=24&model=GFS&domain=CA

-StormMan
Member Since: August 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 61
5. 8888888889gg
3:53 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
any one thinking of moveing out of FL or the gulf this year like to may be ca or wa or NY or ak or oergon and if you like to move there you di not have to play taxs up there so if you get a soade like for 1.00 that it that all you have to give them is that cool ca is nic you do not have hurricane hmmm TX OK KS give me a e mail when evere you are all on her
4. dinky
3:37 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
IT seems that South Fl might be spared if it did develop?? At least that is what I have been reading. I dont think anybody ever really knows until its unavoidable. Living in South Florida myself I can tell you that even a swipe of another storm not only would turn us upside sown considering most of us are now sporting the blue roof look due to tarps and debris is everywhere but the insurance compaines are still no where to be found. So all in all I think the sanity level of South Floridians would be pushed over the top at the threat of yet another storm. I keep telling my self that is the preice I pay for living here. Many of my friends and neighbors have vowed to move out if we are hit again this season. Otherwise it wouldnt suprise me as this is 2005 season and anything goes. Can soemone tell me where i can get a link to show these model runs?? I can get to the GFDL and such but on the left you have to choose a disturbance to look at and if there isnt one what do you do? Thanks for any info.
3. HelenWheels
3:21 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
First with a real comment. So there.

I'm hoping that we can make it through the end of this record-breaking hurricane season with no more storms. I'm praying that the tropics remain quiet, and this forming storm doesn't strengthen. The surface temperature seems to be cooling a bit, but still warm enough to give a boost to anything forming in the south. I have friends in Southern Florida that are DONE with hurricanes this year, so I'll keep my fingers crossed.
2. billsfaninsofla
3:17 PM GMT on November 10, 2005
oh, geez... a track even similar to Michelle may push South Floridians over the edge...
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5576

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.