Dangerous Hurricane Sandy continues north past North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:58 PM GMT on October 28, 2012

Share this Blog
48
+

Hurricane Sandy has changed little in intensity today, and remains a very large, powerful hurricane. Sandy is going to cause billions of dollars in damage Monday and Tuesday in the Eastern U.S. due to storm surge, high winds, and heavy rains. Sandy is of near record-size, with tropical storm-force winds extending up to 520 miles from its center, covering an area larger than a Texas-and-a-half. This afternoon, Sandy brought winds gusting to 64 mph at Cape Hatteras, NC, 60 mph at Kitty Hawk, NC, and 60 mph at Cape Henry, VA. Sandy's rain is onshore from North Carolina to New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Jacksonville, NC and Suffolk, NC have recorded 2 inches of rain today, Greenville, NC has seen 1.6 inches, and Ahoskie, NC has seen 1.5 inches.

With peak impact still 24 to 36 hours away, water levels are already 2 - 4 feet above normal from Virginia to New York. At 4 pm EDT, Lewes, Delaware was at 3.3 feet above normal, Cape May, New Jersey was at 3.1 feet above normal, Wachapreague, Virginia was at 3.6 feet above normal, and Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel station was at 3.6 feet above normal, up more than half a foot since 10:30am. The National Weather Service in Upton, New York mentioned today that the predicted maximum water level of 11.7 feet at The Battery in New York City, which is expected to occur at 8:13pm ET on Monday, would break the record of 10.5 feet which was set on September 15, 1960 in Hurricane Donna.

In a poignant, powerful Public Information Statement this afternoon, the National Weather Service in New Jersey is begging that people heed warnings, and evacuate if they are asked to. They write, "If you are reluctant [to evacuate], think about your loved ones, think about the emergency responders who will be unable to reach you when you make the panicked phone call to be rescued, think about the rescue/recovery teams who will rescue you if you are injured or recover your remains if you do not survive."


Figure 1. High resolution MODIS visible satellite image of Hurricane Sandy on October 28, 2012.

Intensity and Track Forecast for Sandy
Most of Sandy's heavy thunderstorm activity is on the storm's west side, in a thick band several hundred miles removed from the center, giving Sandy more the appearance of a subtropical storm rather than a hurricane. However, satellite loops show Sandy is steadily looking more tropical, with heavy thunderstorms increasing in areal extent near the center, due to a reduction in wind shear from 35 - 40 knots last night to 20 - 25 knots this afternoon. Wind shear is expected to remain near 20 knots until landfall, and Sandy will be traversing the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. These factors may allow Sandy to intensify by 5 - 10 mph over the next 24 hours. Sandy does not have time to build a complete eyewall and undergo rapid intensification. By Monday afternoon, Sandy will be moving over cool 25°C waters, which should slow down intensification by pulling heat energy our of the ocean. However, the trough of low pressure that will be sucking in Sandy to the northwest towards landfall will strengthen the storm by injecting "baroclinic" energy--the energy one can derive from the atmosphere when warm and cold air masses lie in close proximity to each other. Sandy should have sustained winds at hurricane force, 75 - 80 mph, at landfall. Sandy's central pressure is expected to drop from its current 953 mb to 945 - 950 mb at landfall Monday night. A pressure this low is extremely rare; according to wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt, the lowest pressure ever measured anywhere in the U.S. north of Cape Hatteras, NC, is 946 mb (27.94") measured at the Bellport Coast Guard Station on Long Island, NY on September 21, 1938 during the great "Long Island Express" hurricane. The latest set of 12Z (8 am EDT) computer model runs show a little faster motion for Sandy, bringing the center ashore in New Jersey Monday evening near 8 pm EDT.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at The Battery on the south shore of Manhattan, New York City, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory (green line) and the NYHOPS model from the Stevens Institute of Technology (pink curve), which use a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows. These models have a storm surge of 5 - 6', which brings the maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--to 9.7 - 10.8'. Irene brought a storm tide of 9.5' to The Battery in 2011. At a storm tide of 10.5', water will likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. Notice: these are not an official NHC storm surge forecast.


Figure 3. Predicted and forecast water level for Atlantic City, NJ. The dark red line is the observation, rom the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory (green line) and the NYHOPS model from the Stevens Institute of Technology (pink curve), which use a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows.

Sandy's storm surge a huge threat
This afternoon's 3:30 pm EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.8 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was record high: 5.8 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed since 1969, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy is now forecast to bring a near-record storm surge of 6 - 11 feet to Northern New Jersey and Long Island Sound, including the New York City Harbor. This storm surge has the potential to cause many billions of dollars in damage if it hits near high tide at 9 pm EDT on Monday. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month. This will add another 2 - 3" to water levels. Fortunately, Sandy is now predicted to make a fairly rapid approach to the coast, meaning that the peak storm surge will not affect the coast for multiple high tide cycles. Sandy's storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' and a storm tide of 9.5' above MLLW to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy's storm surge is expected to be at least a foot higher than Irene's. If the peak surge arrives near Monday evening's high tide at 9 pm EDT, a portion of New York City's subway system could flood, resulting in billions of dollars in damage. I give a 50% chance that Sandy's storm surge will end up flooding a portion of the New York City subway system.

Sandy's winds
Sandy will bring sustained winds of tropical storm-force to a 1000-mile swath of coast on Monday and Tuesday. Winds of 55 - 75 mph with gusts over hurricane force will occur along a 500 mile-wide section of coast. With most of the trees still in leaf, there will be widespread power outages due to downed trees, and the potential for several billion dollars in wind damage. A power outage computer model run by Johns Hopkins University predicts that 10 million people will lose power from the storm.

Sandy's rains
Sandy's heavy rains are going to cause major but probably not catastrophic river flooding. If we compare the predicted rainfall amounts for Sandy with those from Hurricane Irene of 2011, Sandy's are expected to be about 30% less. Hurricane Irene caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. However, the region most heavily impacted by Irene's heavy rains had very wet soils and very high river levels before Irene arrived, due to heavy rains that occurred in the weeks before the hurricane hit. That is not the case for Sandy; soil moisture is near average over most of the mid-Atlantic, and is in the lowest 30th percentile in recorded history over much of Delaware and Southeastern Maryland. One region of possible concern is the Susquehanna River Valley in Eastern Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is in the 70th percentile, and river levels are in the 76th - 90th percentile. This area is currently expected to receive 3 - 6 inches of rain, which is probably not enough to cause catastrophic flooding like occurred for Hurricane Irene. I expect that river flooding from Sandy will cause less than $1 billion in damage.

Links for Sandy
To find out if you need to evacuate, please contact your local emergency management office. They will have the latest information. People living in New York City can find their evacuation zone here or use this map. FEMA has information on preparing for hurricanes.

People with disabilities and caregivers seeking information on accessible shelter and transportation can contact portlight.org

Atlantic City beach cam

Statue of Liberty cam

An impressive 1-minute resolution satellite loop of Sandy today is at the CSU RAMMB website.

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Late Season Tropical Storms that have affected the U.S. north of Hatteras. He also has a post, Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

Hurricane Sandy info from NASA.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Storm Surge prediction model from the Stevens Institute of Technology, which use a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows.

Research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook for New York City.

Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation.

We'll have an update on Sandy Monday morning.

Angela Fritz and Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1667 - 1617

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34Blog Index

1667. srqthymesage
6:44 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting goosegirl1:




Mama Earth is grouchy today!
She started getting angry long ago...now she's blowing her top!
Member Since: August 17, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 83
1666. hurricanejunky
5:09 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Franklin (from the NHC) on the Ed Schultz show now!
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2898
1665. US1Mile10
3:49 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Just got a text from my sister in Brooklyn. She said the river is starting to come over the sea wall. She lives down in Redhook.
Member Since: October 10, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
1664. Abacosurf
3:48 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting playapics:


Ironically, the safest place for a ship during a severe storm is "at sea". Makes no sense to get beat up while tied up at berth.

Henry
Knowing the ocean you would have never caught me on that ship at this time. Not a chance.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 361
1663. mikatnight
3:42 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting beell:
Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Probabilities
Chance of Storm Surge >= 8 feet (NGVD-1929) at individual locations
Hurricane Sandy (2012) Advisory 28
For the 77 hours from 05 AM EDT Mon Oct 29 to 10 AM EDT Thu Nov 01




Remember, a storm surge of just 5' can equal a storm tide of over 11'.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
1662. playapics
3:24 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting KarenRei:


The original Bounty was. At least one of the two reconstructions was 180 feet (notably enlarged). Not sure which of the reconstructions this is.


This Nova Scotia built replica of the original "Bounty" completed in 1961 used in the original filming of the 1962 movie "Mutiny on the Bounty" was 80ft in length. She appeared in a number of box office movies since then including all of the three "Pirates of the Carribean" trilogy. She was a masterpiece of construction and I'm proud to say that I walked her decks.
Member Since: August 4, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
1661. Waltanater
3:23 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Not me here in Raleigh. Didn't feel a thing.

M2.9 - 10km S of West Marion, North Carolina
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
1660. KarenRei
3:18 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting playapics:


The HMS Bounty was only 80ft long.



The original Bounty was. At least one of the two reconstructions was 180 feet (notably enlarged). Not sure which of the reconstructions this is.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 940
1659. KarenRei
3:16 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting oracle28:
something tells me this is not going to be a fish storm...


My money is on a landfall just south of Corpus Christi.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 940
1658. playapics
3:16 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting Pirate999:


Very sad. I suspect they thought they could go eastand around the storm but the breadth do sandy caught them. Yes, bad planning. I am surprised that a180' boat flounders in 18' seas and 40mph winds. Not to make light of it but I've been on a 50' sailboat in similar weather (a fast moving cold front and NOT a hurricane) and although it was uncomfortable it was not horrible or overly dangerous. Having never seen the boat, was it made of wood? May have sprung a plank that caused it to take on more water than the pumps could handle.

Very sad for the two lost....


The HMS Bounty was only 80ft long.

Member Since: August 4, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
1657. playapics
3:14 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting skycycle:


Why on Earth would anyone go out with that kind of boat in seas that are so rough? Thoughts go out to the families of the missing, but you have to admit - this is just plain irresponsible!


Ironically, the safest place for a ship during a severe storm is "at sea". Makes no sense to get beat up while tied up at berth.

Henry
Member Since: August 4, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
1656. MadinBoy
3:06 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
October 29, 2012, full moon, the tidal coefficient may be an aggravating factor for the New York area!
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 37
1655. oracle28
3:06 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
something tells me this is not going to be a fish storm...
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
1654. guygee
3:06 PM GMT on October 29, 2012


Convection near the center lighting up.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
1653. MadinBoy
3:06 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
October 29, 2012, full moon, the tidal coefficient may be an aggravating factor for the New York area!
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 37
1652. beell
3:05 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Probabilities
Chance of Storm Surge >= 8 feet (NGVD-1929) at individual locations
Hurricane Sandy (2012) Advisory 28
For the 77 hours from 05 AM EDT Mon Oct 29 to 10 AM EDT Thu Nov 01


Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16647
1651. TropicTraveler
3:01 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting JNCali:

That would not be a fun job.. riding out 40+ foot swells for 36 hours


I've been on a ship around Cape Horn with 40 foot swells for a couple of days. If wasn't all that bad with the swells being smooth and regular. I can't imagine the swells being smooth and regular in a hurricane so wouldn't want to be on that ship.
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 924
1650. Levi32
3:01 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Note on DEMO2 data from NDBC:

"Glider data are not quality controlled by NDBC."

Hopefully its estimates are too high.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
1649. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:59 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
1648. Carnoustie
2:59 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
earthquake's.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/
Member Since: August 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 49
1647. mfaria101
2:56 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting Stormbugn:
Hi everyone. It has been a bit since I lasted posted. I have deployed to Lakehurst, NJ. I am hunkered down riding out the storm in Tom's River. The winds are howling but the rain is relatively light right now. I am from MS so the winds are not an issue but the cold....brrrrr! It makes working in this mess miserable. My heart goes out to the poor people who live here. I will try to post and let everyone know how it is going. Well....as long as tthe internet and the power lasts. My prayers go out to the survivors in the affected areas and just know that we are here to help you through this time! It is heartbreaking to lose everything you own but as long as you live through it, you can rebuild! Take care, be safe, and make good choices.


Thanks you Storm, as a Toms River resident I wish we could give you a warmer welcome. Thank you for all you do and please stay safe out there.
Member Since: May 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
1646. ButteAmerica
2:56 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Hurricane Sandy is switching partners and is now doing the Nor'Easter Bomb Dance.
Time to dig out the 1989 NCAR ERICA study, Experiment of Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones in the Atlantic.
Member Since: October 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
1645. skycycle
2:55 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Bounty photo taken Saturday


Why on Earth would anyone go out with that kind of boat in seas that are so rough? Thoughts go out to the families of the missing, but you have to admit - this is just plain irresponsible!
Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 192
1644. 1Zach1
2:55 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Wind has defiantly picked up in Northern VA outside of DC, no crazy gusts yet but being 10floors up in a building that is completely glass has me less than thrilled. Anyone know the most update projections for winds here on the southern side of the DC-Metro area?
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
1643. Pirate999
2:55 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting MrMixon:


Wow... I just read the story here. Tragic that two are missing and a beautiful ship was lost. Why on earth would they have set sail? Did nobody check the weather first?



Very sad. I suspect they thought they could go eastand around the storm but the breadth do sandy caught them. Yes, bad planning. I am surprised that a180' boat flounders in 18' seas and 40mph winds. Not to make light of it but I've been on a 50' sailboat in similar weather (a fast moving cold front and NOT a hurricane) and although it was uncomfortable it was not horrible or overly dangerous. Having never seen the boat, was it made of wood? May have sprung a plank that caused it to take on more water than the pumps could handle.

Very sad for the two lost....
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 173
1642. muddertracker
2:55 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting frecklespugsley:




Is that an M????
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2348
1641. Hurricane12
2:54 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
From the WUnderground Facebook Page:

Member Since: August 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
1640. mitthbevnuruodo
2:54 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
Sea Surface Temperatures.


That cooler water doesn't span very far before the shoreline. And given the pace she's going now, those combined, the cooler waters probably won't effect her fast enough to weaken her much before landfall
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 842
1639. frecklespugsley
2:54 PM GMT on October 29, 2012


Member Since: February 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
1638. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:54 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1637. LargoFl
2:53 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
HURRICANE SANDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1500 UTC MON OCT 29 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS
OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN
ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 71.5W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 150SW 0NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 200SW 150NW.
34 KT.......420NE 330SE 400SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 995SE 840SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 71.5W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 70.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 39.0N 74.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 60SE 150SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 200SW 150NW.
34 KT...450NE 360SE 360SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 39.9N 76.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 180SE 140SW 60NW.
34 KT...400NE 360SE 240SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 40.4N 77.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...360NE 360SE 200SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 41.5N 77.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 150SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 44.5N 75.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 45.9N 72.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 47.5N 68.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.5N 71.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38512
1636. SyriboTigereyes
2:53 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Oh my God. I woke up late and I am seriously stunned to see her as a 90mph storm. And seeing all the flooding damage already..
Member Since: September 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 141
1635. dogsgomoo
2:53 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
Earthquake in SC?..Can anyone confirm
Today? North Carolina and Arkansas
Member Since: March 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 316
1634. washingtonian115
2:53 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
I'm surprised Sandy is still intensifying.Like what the hell?.Local mets showing winds of 75-possibly 80mph here in the D.C metro area.How is this even possible!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16975
1633. Chicklit
2:53 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
1632. CaicosRetiredSailor
2:53 PM GMT on October 29, 2012


Bounty photo taken Saturday
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6036
1630. Asrock
2:52 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Not me here in Raleigh. Didn't feel a thing.




Nothing felt here in Charleston,SC by me at least
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
1629. JNCali
2:52 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:


I was watching several lastnight. They were ordered out of the harbors. Many looked like they parked in deeper water to ride it out. The site we follow & track them by sailwx.com is down right now.

That would not be a fun job.. riding out 40+ foot swells for 36 hours
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
1628. CybrTeddy
2:51 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Atlantic City, this is getting bad and the storm isn't even at its worst yet.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24029
1627. Methurricanes
2:51 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
A strenthening Sandy could be good for New England, because as storms intensify they tend to wind up and pull in the winds.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 701
1626. Asrock
2:51 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting JNCali:
Not a good sail day... I think some one mentioned a cruise ship heading into this earlier.. I assume they where going to head down to Miami...
Link


We where in Nassau as it came across cuba, we raced NW towards Florida to stay out of the main path of this storm.
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
1625. GeorgiaStormz
2:51 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
SANDY WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULFSTREAM WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS...WHICH
WILL BRING A HALT TO ANY SIGNIFICANT INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
OVERALL INTENSITY OR THE SIZE OF THE EXTREMELY LARGE WIND FIELD
THAT IS NOW MORE THAN 1000 N MI IN DIAMETER. AT THE MOMENT...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
1624. Walshy
2:51 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Appalachian State University in North Carolina this morning. Higher totals in high elevations. Main event yet to come.


Link
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
1623. Hurricane12
2:51 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Now's the time to settle and hunker down, folks.

Stay safe, everyone.
Member Since: August 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
1622. skycycle
2:50 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting plutorising:
i'm still wanting to know what happened to that cruise ship cantore spotted leaving harbor last night in nyc


There she is :)))
Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 192
1621. SouthDadeFish
2:50 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Something to keep an eye on, the latest VDM showed the core really warming up. This is a sign that Sandy is definitely still tropical, and also usually a harbinger that the storm is intensifying. Unsurprisingly, the pressure has continued to fall this morning.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
1620. Bluestorm5
2:50 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
it was in NC..

Earthquakes
Hazards
Learn
Prepare
Monitoring
Research

M2.9 - 10km S of West Marion, North Carolina 2012-10-29 11:49:05 UTC

At 7:49 this morning...

Magnitude 2.9
Date-Time

Monday, October 29, 2012 at 11:49:05 UTC
Monday, October 29, 2012 at 07:49:05 AM at epicenter

Location 35.611°N, 81.999°W
Depth 6.1 km (3.8 miles)
Region NORTH CAROLINA
Distances

6 km (4 miles) SSE (160°) from West Marion, NC
8 km (5 miles) S (176°) from Marion, NC
16 km (10 miles) E (97°) from Old Fort, NC
115 km (72 miles) WNW (293°) from Charlotte, NC
301 km (187 miles) NE (46°) from Atlanta, GA

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 0.5 km (0.3 miles); depth +/- 2.3 km (1.4 miles)
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8009
1619. ncstorm
2:49 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting HurricaneTracker01:
Tropical storm force winds now affecting areas from southern North Carolina all the way to southern Maine. Man, this thing is HUGE. Stay safe everyone in it's path!



I ask this yesterday that when Sandy moved back in that areas that were out of the tropical storm warnings would probably have to be put back under since this is such a large storm..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15300
1618. Chicklit
2:49 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...SANDY FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD SOON...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS PLUS HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.5N 71.5W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


Link to Public Advisory
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
1617. LargoFl
2:49 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
Islip Long island........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38512

Viewing: 1667 - 1617

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
82 °F
Scattered Clouds