Massive Hurricane Sandy building a huge and destructive storm surge

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on October 28, 2012

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Massive and dangerous Hurricane Sandy has grown to record size as it barrels northeastwards along the North Carolina coast at 10 mph. At 8 am EDT, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds extended northeastwards 520 miles from the center, and twelve-foot high seas covered a diameter of ocean 1,030 miles across. Since records of storm size began in 1988, only one tropical storm or hurricane has been larger--Tropical Storm Olga of 2001, which had a 690 mile radius of tropical storm-force winds when it was near Bermuda (note: I earlier reported this was a subtropical storm, as per the original NHC advisory, but it was later re-analyzed as a tropical storm.) Sandy has put an colossal volume of ocean water in motion with its widespread and powerful winds, and the hurricane's massive storm surge is already impacting the coast. A 2' storm surge has been recorded at numerous locations this morning from Virginia to Connecticut, including a 3' surge at Virginia's Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel and Sewells Point at 9 am EDT. Huge, 10 - 15 foot-high battering waves on top of the storm surge have washed over Highway 12 connecting North Carolina's Outer Banks to the mainland at South Nags Head this morning. The highway is now impassable, and has been closed. The coast guard station on Cape Hatteras, NC, recorded sustained winds of 50 mph, gusting to 61 mph, at 5:53 am EDT this morning. In Delaware, the coastal highway Route 1 between Dewey Beach and Bethany Beach has been closed due to high water. Even though Sandy is a minimal Category 1 hurricane, its storm surge is extremely dangerous, and if you are in a low-lying area that is asked to evacuate, I strongly recommend that you leave.


Figure 1. A fright to behold: morning satellite image of massive Hurricane Sandy.

Sandy's death toll now at 65
Sandy was a brutal storm for the Caribbean, the storm's death toll now stands at 65. The death toll is highest in Haiti, with 51 deaths. Prime Minister Laurent Lamothe told the Associated Press that "This is a disaster of major proportions. The whole south is under water." Approximately 8 - 10" of rain (200 - 250 mm) fell in the capital of Port-au-Prince. Eleven people were killed in Cuba, where 35,000 homes were damaged or destroyed. Sandy is also being blamed for 1 death in Jamaica, 1 in Puerto Rico, and 1 in the Bahamas.


Figure 2. A resident carries a metal sheet from a house after heavy rains damaged by Hurricane Sandy in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, Thursday, Oct. 25, 2012. Sandy is being blamed for 51 deaths in Haiti. (AP Photo/Dieu Nalio Chery)


Figure 3. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts from NASA's TRMM satellite show that portions of Haiti received over 12.75" (325 mm) of rain (pink colors) from Hurricane Sandy. The capital of Port-au-Prince received 8 - 10" (200 - 250 mm.) Image credit: NASA.

Intensity and Track Forecast for Sandy
Sandy has a rather unusual structure, with the strongest winds on the southwest side of the center, but a larger area of tropical storm-force winds to the northeast of the center. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity is on the storm's west side, in a thick band several hundred miles removed from the center, giving Sandy more the appearance of a subtropical storm rather than a hurricane. Satellite loops show that the low-level center of Sandy is no longer exposed to view, and heavy thunderstorms are increasing in areal extent near the center, due to a reduction in wind shear from 35 - 40 knots last night to 25 - 30 knots this morning. Wind shear is expected to drop another 5 knots today, which may allow the storm to build an increased amount of heavy thunderstorms near its center and intensify by 5 - 10 mph over the next 24 hours. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters noted this morning that Sandy had a partial eyewall on the west through SE sides of the center, and the storm may be able to build a nearly complete eyewall by Monday morning. By Monday afternoon, though, Sandy will be moving over cool 25°C waters, which should slow down this intensification process. However, the trough of low pressure that will be pulling Sandy to the northwest towards landfall on Monday will strengthen the storm by injecting "baroclinic" energy--the energy one can derive from the atmosphere when warm and cold air masses lie in close proximity to each other. Sandy should have sustained winds at hurricane force, 75 - 80 mph, at landfall. Sandy's central pressure is expected to drop from its current 951 mb to 945 - 950 mb at landfall Monday night. A pressure this low is extremely rare; according to wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt, the lowest pressure ever measured anywhere in the U.S. north of Cape Hatteras, NC, is 946 mb (27.94") measured at the Bellport Coast Guard Station on Long Island, NY on September 21, 1938 during the great "Long Island Express" hurricane. The latest set of 00Z (8 pm EDT) and 06Z (2 am EDT) computer model runs are in agreement that Sandy will make landfall between 10 pm Monday night and 4 am Tuesday morning in New Jersey.


Figure 4. Predicted maximum storm surge from Hurricane Sandy. There is a 10% chance that the storm surge could exceed the heights given here, so most regions will receive a surge lower than this forecast. The greatest surge is expected in the waters surrounding New York City, since the shape of the bays will act to funnel the water to higher levels.

Sandy's storm surge a huge threat
Last night's 9:30 pm EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.6 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was exceptionally high: 5.7 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed between 1969 - 2005, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy is now forecast to bring a near-record storm surge of 6 - 11 feet to Northern New Jersey and Long Island Sound, including the New York City Harbor. While Sandy's storm surge will be nowhere near as destructive as Katrina's, the storm surge does have the potential to cause many billions of dollars in damage if it hits near high tide at 9 pm EDT on Monday. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month. This will add another 2 - 3" to water levels. Fortunately, Sandy is now predicted to make a fairly rapid approach to the coast, meaning that the peak storm surge will not affect the coast for multiple high tide cycles. Sandy's storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy's storm surge is expected to be several feet higher than Irene's. If the peak surge arrives near Monday evening's high tide at 9 pm EDT, a portion of New York City's subway system could flood, resulting in billions of dollars in damage. I give a 50% chance that Sandy's storm surge will end up flooding a portion of the New York City subway system.

An excellent September 2012 article in the New York Times titled, "New York Is Lagging as Seas and Risks Rise, Critics Warn" quoted Dr. Klaus H. Jacob, a research scientist at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, on how lucky New York City got with Hurricane Irene. If the storm surge from Irene had been just one foot higher, "subway tunnels would have flooded, segments of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Drive and roads along the Hudson River would have turned into rivers, and sections of the commuter rail system would have been impassable or bereft of power," he said, and the subway tunnels under the Harlem and East Rivers would have been unusable for nearly a month, or longer, at an economic loss of about $55 billion. Dr. Jacob is an adviser to the city on climate change, and an author of the 2011 state study that laid out the flooding prospects. “We’ve been extremely lucky,” he said. “I’m disappointed that the political process hasn’t recognized that we’re playing Russian roulette.”

Sandy's winds
Sandy will bring sustained winds of tropical storm-force to a 1000-mile swath of coast on Monday and Tuesday. Winds of 55 - 75 mph with gusts over hurricane force will occur along a 500 mile-wide section of coast. With most of the trees still in leaf, there will be widespread power outages due to downed trees, and the potential for several billion dollars in wind damage. A power outage computer model run by Johns Hopkins University predicts that 10 million people will lose power from the storm.

Sandy's rains
Sandy's heavy rains are going to cause major but probably not catastrophic river flooding. If we compare the predicted rainfall amounts for Sandy (Figure 5) with those from Hurricane Irene of 2011 (Figure 6), Sandy's are expected to be about 30% less. Hurricane Irene caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. However, the region most heavily impacted by Irene's heavy rains had very wet soils and very high river levels before Irene arrived, due to heavy rains that occurred in the weeks before the hurricane hit. That is not the case for Sandy; soil moisture is near average over most of the mid-Atlantic, and is in the lowest 30th percentile in recorded history over much of Delaware and Southeastern Maryland. One region of possible concern is the Susquehanna River Valley in Eastern Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is in the 70th percentile, and river levels are in the 76th - 90th percentile. This area is currently expected to receive 3 - 6 inches of rain (Figure 4), which is probably not enough to cause catastrophic flooding like occurred for Hurricane Irene. I expect that river flooding from Sandy will cause less than $1 billion in damage.


Figure 5. Predicted 5-day rainfall for the period ending Friday morning, November 2, 2012, at 8am EDT. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 6. Actual rainfall for 2011's Hurricane Irene, which caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. Sandy's rains are predicted to be about 30% less than Irene's. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Sandy's snows
You can add heavy snow to the list of weather frights coming for the Eastern U.S. from Sandy. A WInter Storm Watch is posted for much of southeastern West Virginia for Sunday night through Monday, when 2 - 6 inches of wet, heavy snow is expected to fall at elevations below 2000 feet. At higher elevation above 3,000 feet, 1 - 2 feet of snow is possible. With high wind gusts of 35 - 45 mph and many trees still in leaf, the affected area can expect plenty of tree damage and power outages. Lesser snows are expected in the mountains of Virginia, Tennessee, and North Carolina.

Sandy's tornado threat is minimal
The severe thunderstorm and tornado threat from Sandy Sunday and Monday looks low, due to minimal instability.

Links for Sandy
To find out if you need to evacuate, please contact your local emergency management office. They will have the latest information. People living in New York City can find their evacuation zone here or use this map. FEMA has information on preparing for hurricanes.

People with disabilities and caregivers seeking information on accessible shelter and transportation can contact portlight.org

Corolla, NC webcam

Atlantic City beach cam

Statue of Liberty cam

An impressive 1-minute resolution satellite loop of Sandy today is at the CSU RAMMB website.

This impressive 1-min GOES loop beginning at dawn Saturday shows Sandy's heavy thunderstorms fighting against high wind shear, and the tilt of the vortex to the northeast with height.

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Late Season Tropical Storms that have affected the U.S. north of Hatteras. He also has a post, Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

3-D "fly-around: of the rain towers of Sandy

Hurricane Sandy info from NASA.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Storm Surge prediction model from the Stevens Institute of Technology, which use a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows.

Research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook for New York City.

Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation.


Figure 7. Tide gauge in Kahului, Maui, Hawaii, showing the 2.5' tsunami that hit at approximately 09 UTC Sunday, October 29, 2012. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Three-foot tsunami his Hawaii after big quake in Canada
A major magnitude 7.7 earthquake hit 25 miles (40 km) south of Sandspit, British Columbia last night at 8:04 pm PDT. The quake generated a tsunami that raced across the Pacific Ocean and struck Hawaii six hours later. The tsunami reached a height of 2.5 feet in Kahului, Maui, 1.2' at Hilo, and 0.5' in Honolulu. The earthquake was Canada's third largest since 1900. The last stronger quake was a magnitude 7.9 that hit in 1958. The other stronger quake was a magnitude 8.1 that hit in 1949, with an epicenter very close to last night's trembler.

I'll have an update on Sandy this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Deerfield Beach Fl. Sandy remnants (KFLWESTBOCA)
Pier getting damaged
Deerfield Beach Fl. Sandy remnants
Taken by RJ LeBleu (rjlebleu)
Vero Beach, Florida Beach erosion from Hurricane Sandy.
Taken by RJ LeBleu

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925. leftlink
12:22 AM GMT on October 29, 2012
moved to new blog
Member Since: December 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 134
924. WeitraLord
12:18 AM GMT on October 29, 2012
Hurrican Sandy LIVE-Page: http://www.qicknews.de/Monitore/sandy.php/ (Tracking, TV-Stream`s, Weather Data, open Chat, Chaser Stream`s...)
Member Since: September 28, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
923. Maryland1
12:17 AM GMT on October 29, 2012
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


I have been seeing boats and ships of all sizes heading out of the harbor all day. I've been wondering "What are they thinking?" I imagine that they should be finding themselves feeling like a rubber duck in a washing machine once they get out of the harbor very far.


Much safer out there, than tied to something that is about be broken. Navy does this all day out of Norfolk, when the big one center on Hampton Roads. But, they must hand out a lot of green pills that were taken off the market a long time ago, before that voyage.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 122
922. ConnecticutWXGuy
11:08 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
New GFS is truly a worst case scenario for southern New England
Member Since: November 17, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 527
921. 21Jake
10:40 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting DFWjc:


Link


Thanks but I was looking for something streaming and that one hasn't updated in almost 4 hours...
Member Since: March 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
920. PedleyCA
10:37 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
found two different ships cams that were mentioned in the blog.

http://www.kroooz-cams.com/caribbean/caribbean1.p hp

http://www.cruise-cams.com/pages/royal_caribbean_ international_explorer_of_the_seas_bow_view_zoom.h tm
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5771
919. SarasotaToo
10:22 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

WTH? I can't believe they'd let that cruise ship leave...maybe I'd understand if they were sailing NE into the Altantic high seas...but they are going right toward the storm if they are headed south of the Bahamas...


Cruise ships reserve the right to change the destination due to bad weather.....I've been on a cruise ship in 40' swells and it's awful.....
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
918. Maineweatherguy20023
10:21 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting charlottefl:


I personally think she will remain fully warm core until landfall, while at the same time stealing energy from the trough to the West, that's basically what's been going on the last 24 hours..

have we forgotten the 10 mph warm core gulf stream boost? or the baroclinic cold-core boost? Check out my wordpress blog for more on this. ill do another update at 8-9.
http://forecasterjack.wordpress.com/
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 263
917. MontanaZephyr
10:13 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

He mentioned that ship was planning to leave this afternoon during a live report earlier today... unbelievable.


I have been seeing boats and ships of all sizes heading out of the harbor all day. I've been wondering "What are they thinking?" I imagine that they should be finding themselves feeling like a rubber duck in a washing machine once they get out of the harbor very far.
Member Since: May 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 438
916. DFWjc
10:07 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting 21Jake:
Anyone have a link to a Battery Park cam? I've been searching but can't find a good one. I think it would be very interesting to watch through the next two days to see if the water goes as high as it is expected..


Link
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
915. mbo1971
10:05 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting goosegirl1:



Canaan Valley and Snowshoe Mountain could get up to 5 feet.


where is that forecast? One I saw for WV mtns siad up to 8" in the high elevations.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
914. Jarhead6012
10:05 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting StormJunkie:
Hey Jarhead, good to see you. Nope, not heading up for this one. Got work to do here.


Got ya, this time I will be feeling some effects from this one. Already have some gusty winds, rain showers and clouds moving out of the northeast and this thing is still how far out to sea?
Member Since: August 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 35
913. sar2401
10:03 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting stormchaser19:




Hmmmm!!!!!!!!!!

Depends on the kind of ship
Quoting plutorising:
i'll bet the cruise ship captain thought they'd be better off away from the docks and in open waters.

Depending on the ship, he's probably right. If it's one of the newer 115,000 ton megaliners, it's much better off at sea, even in 40 foot swells, using active stabilization and computer control of heading and attitude. Staying in port leaves the vessel at risk from a combination of storm surge and battering waves. The US Navy has done the same thing, with carriers, cruisers, and destroyers/frigates being ordered out to sea to ride out the storm away from the hazards of being in port.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 14572
912. 21Jake
10:02 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Anyone have a link to a Battery Park cam? I've been searching but can't find a good one. I think it would be very interesting to watch through the next two days to see if the water goes as high as it is expected..
Member Since: March 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
911. MAweatherboy1
10:00 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
If she's not a hurricane she's at least close. From recon:

63.0 knots (~ 72.4 mph)
Tropical Storm
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7754
910. airmet3
9:58 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting ButteAmerica:
I saw that cruise ship leaving NYC too.
I'm astounded the Coast Guard has not ordered her back. Even if no passengers are aboard, it's suicide for the crew.


They have plenty of time to move north, away from the worst. Yes, it will be a bit rough but these large ships with their technology can handle it (fingers crossed).

Keeping this ship in port is liable to cause millions in damage to ship and the terminal.
Member Since: August 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 170
909. Velocity23
9:58 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Just got off work. Looks like DC is in for a heck of a storm.
Member Since: July 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
908. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
9:58 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
907. NCHurricane2009
9:56 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:



things may not turn out well for that ship

WTH? I can't believe they'd let that cruise ship leave...maybe I'd understand if they were sailing NE into the Altantic high seas...but they are going right toward the storm if they are headed south of the Bahamas...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 468 Comments: 3657
906. muddertracker
9:56 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I don't know if this has been posted or not, but if it has it deserves to be posted again. If you are unsure if you should evacuate or not and live in a mandatory evacuation zone, please read this:

000
NOUS41 KPHI 281841
PNSPHI
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007&g t;010- 012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-291200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
241 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA...

SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION.
THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER
OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE
BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND
WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS
FLOODING.

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

SOME IMPORTANT NOTES...

1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE
AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO.

2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE
OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO
IT AGAIN.

3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT
THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU
MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE
RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR
RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE.


4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR
PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS
ZERO FATALITIES.

5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR
ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE!

$$

NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ

Link


Ever since the Katrina post of 2005...these things have gotten bolder and bolder. I guess it's for the best.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2338
905. StormJunkie
9:56 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:



amd have you evere watch that movie call Poseidon wish was a Cruise ship that overe turn by a 30 to 40 foot wave


That was a fictional movie. The Perfect Storm was based on real events. It was a small fishing vessel and was likely facing 60' or more waves when it sank.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16421
904. washingtonian115
9:55 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting 954FtLCane:

I believe given the effects on Cuba & Haiti she will be retired regardless of what happens from here on out. Just my opinion....
Read post 853.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16898
903. Tazmanian
9:54 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting StormJunkie:


Taz, do you mean to tell me that you have never watched The Perfect Storm?

I think that ship will fair better at sea than it would in port, BUT I would NOT want to be on it.



amd have you evere watch that movie call Poseidon wish was a Cruise ship that overe turn by a 30 to 40 foot wave
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114965
902. wxchaser97
9:53 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
Does it develops Valerie in this run?Oh ok thanks.

The run isn't over yet and not in the time frame that it has developed Valerie before.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
901. StormJunkie
9:53 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Hey Jarhead, good to see you. Nope, not heading up for this one. Got work to do here.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16421
900. MAweatherboy1
9:53 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
Does it develops Valerie in this run?Oh ok thanks.

I don't know, the run's barely started... I don't think it has been though for the last few runs. There's a decent chance Tony was our last named storm this year.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7754
899. ButteAmerica
9:52 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
I saw that cruise ship leaving NYC too.
I'm astounded the Coast Guard has not ordered her back. Even if no passengers are aboard, it's suicide for the crew.
Member Since: October 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
898. wxchaser97
9:52 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting Jarhead6012:


I am in NW Ohio about 80 miles south of Toledo and we are going to be getting the same type of winds, my concern is snow. What kind of snowfall should we be expecting, esp since these winds are going to be coming over the warm lakes.

You could get a couple inches of snow, nothing too bad. I could get an inch or so per the GFS and Euro.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
897. 954FtLCane
9:51 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like Sandy will be a hurricane longer past landfall than originally thought.If she doesn't lose her tropical identity completly she will have a 95% chance of retirement.

I believe given the effects on Cuba & Haiti she will be retired regardless of what happens from here on out. Just my opinion....
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
896. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:51 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
For earlier.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31919
895. StormJunkie
9:51 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:



no it was a Cruise ship that lift new York today heading in too 30 too 40 foot waves


am not sure if that ship will make it ok with out being overe turn


Taz, do you mean to tell me that you have never watched The Perfect Storm?

I think that ship will fair better at sea than it would in port, BUT I would NOT want to be on it.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16421
894. sar2401
9:51 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting Jarhead6012:
Ok IF I understood what I have been reading, this storm is actually getting stronger and may move in farther south than originally thought. What does that mean for those of us in Ohio. We are already feeling some effects of the front that has merged and also have a high wind alert for tomorrow thru tuesday. My concern is snowfall from this monster, esp if the winds come over the warm great lakes.

Moderately high winds and rain appear to be the biggest issue. Sandy is wrapping in enough tropical air into whatever kind of extra-tropical/frontal low that it appears snow will not be a major issue, and Ohio may not see any snow at all. The greatest threats from heavy snow look to be the higher altitude parts of southern PA. WV, western VA, and the highlands of NC. Those are the only places with winter storm watches out so far, and I think this is the correct solution. I have been saying for many days that Sandy will have transported way too much tropical air north for this to turn into "Snowmaggedon". I guess "Frankenstorm" will have to do. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 14572
893. Jarhead6012
9:50 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting StormJunkie:
Same Sandy. Lacking CDO, but that really doesn't matter with this system. The surge is what is going to be the big deal.



Hey Storm, you going to chase this one??
Member Since: August 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 35
892. plutorising
9:50 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
i'll bet the cruise ship captain thought they'd be better off away from the docks and in open waters.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 80
891. wolftribe2009
9:50 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting wolftribe2009:


Ivan 2004


It was the worse hurricane to strike Cuba since Hurricane Flora in 1963
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
890. Tazmanian
9:49 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting stormchaser19:




Hmmmm!!!!!!!!!!



things may not turn out well for that ship
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114965
889. allancalderini
9:49 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
18z GFS looks similar to previous runs, maybe just a hair north:

Does it develops Valerie in this run?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ike caused 7.3 billion in Cuba which was higher than Michelle.
Oh ok thanks.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4253
888. plutorising
9:49 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
yes taz and you just posted it again
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 80
887. stormchaser19
9:48 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting maeko:
Jim Cantore said he just watch a fully loaded cruise ship leave NY for Bahamas in 30' seas!

I really, really hope that is not what that ship is doing!




Hmmmm!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
886. wolftribe2009
9:48 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ike caused 7.3 billion in Cuba which was higher than Michelle.


Ivan 2004
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
885. Tazmanian
9:47 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114965
884. SouthDadeFish
9:46 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
I don't know if this has been posted or not, but if it has it deserves to be posted again. If you are unsure if you should evacuate or not and live in a mandatory evacuation zone, please read this:

000
NOUS41 KPHI 281841
PNSPHI
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010- 012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-291200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
241 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA...

SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION.
THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER
OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE
BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND
WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS
FLOODING.

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

SOME IMPORTANT NOTES...

1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE
AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO.

2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE
OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO
IT AGAIN.

3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT
THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU
MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE
RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR
RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE.


4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR
PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS
ZERO FATALITIES.

5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR
ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE!

$$

NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ

Link
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
883. MAweatherboy1
9:46 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
18z GFS looks similar to previous runs, maybe just a hair north:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7754
882. Tazmanian
9:45 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting Dakster:


What is the name of that ship? (Andrea Gail II?)



no it was a Cruise ship that lift new York today heading in too 30 too 40 foot waves


am not sure if that ship will make it ok with out being overe turn
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114965
881. Jarhead6012
9:44 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Speaking of SE MI, here is the other SE MI blogger. TWC says gusts over 50mph and NWS says over 40mph. There will at least be a wind advisory issued by the NWS. Some areas may even be put under high wind warnings. We will also be getting rain from Sandy.


I am in NW Ohio about 80 miles south of Toledo and we are going to be getting the same type of winds, my concern is snow. What kind of snowfall should we be expecting, esp since these winds are going to be coming over the warm lakes.
Member Since: August 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 35
880. MAweatherboy1
9:44 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Flight level winds as high as 108mph are being reported by recon, but they are not mixing down to the surface at all.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7754
879. LargoFl
9:43 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting goosegirl1:



Canaan Valley and Snowshoe Mountain could get up to 5 feet.
..yes west of penna there is a blizzard warning out
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38223
878. washingtonian115
9:43 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
I thought the worst storm in Cuba was Michelle of 2001.
Ike caused 7.3 billion in Cuba which was higher than Michelle.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16898
877. Dakster
9:43 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:
that ship that lift new York they are heading in too 30 too 40 foot seas I think thing may not turn out well on that ship I think a 40 foot wave can overe turn or sink a ship


What is the name of that ship? (Andrea Gail II?)
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10129
876. goosegirl1
9:41 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting breald:
Boy even WV is getting in on the action. They may get over two feet of snow along with some wind gust which could reach 80 mph. That is going to be another place of power outages.



Canaan Valley and Snowshoe Mountain could get up to 5 feet.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1228
875. CaicosRetiredSailor
9:41 PM GMT on October 28, 2012


Bridgeport Connecticut





Port Jefferson NY
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6011

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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