Sandy likely to be a multi-billion dollar disaster for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on October 27, 2012

Hurricane Sandy is holding its own against high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and has regained its Category 1 strength after falling to tropical storm strength early this morning. Sandy is a massive storm, with tropical storm-force winds that span a 660-mile diameter area of ocean from a point even with central Florida northwards to a point off the central North Carolina coast. Twelve-foot high seas cover a diameter of ocean 1,000 miles across. A buoy 150 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida reported sustained winds of 63 mph, gusting to 76 mph, at 9:43 am EDT. Another buoy about 100 miles east of the coast of Georgia reported sustained winds of 69 mph at 11:52 am EDT. Due to the high wind shear and interaction with a trough of low pressure to Sandy's west, the storm has a rather unusual structure, with the strongest winds on the southwest side of the center, but a larger area of tropical storm-force winds to the northeast of the center. Satellite loops show that the low-level center of Sandy is partially exposed to view, with a small clump of heavy thunderstorms near the center. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity is on the storm's west side, in a thick band several hundred miles removed from the center, giving Sandy more the appearance of a subtropical storm rather than a hurricane.


Figure 1. Early afternoon satellite image of Sandy.

Sandy's death toll at 48
Sandy was a brutal storm for the Caribbean, with a total death toll that now stands at 48. The death toll is highest in Haiti, with 34 dead. The toll will likely rise as remote areas cut off from communications are reached. Cuban state media is reporting that eleven people were killed on Cuba, and damage was heavy, with 35,000 homes damaged or destroyed. Cuba is probably the most hurricane-prepared nation in the world, and it is unusual for them to experience such a high death toll in a hurricane. Sandy was Cuba's deadliest hurricane since Category 4 Hurricane Dennis killed sixteen people in 2005. Sandy is also being blamed for 1 death in Jamaica, 1 in the Bahamas, and 1 in Puerto Rico.

Forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is expected to remain a high 30 - 40 knots for the next two days, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure to its west. The high shear should keep Sandy from intensifying the way most hurricanes do--by pulling heat energy out of the ocean. However, a trough of low pressure approaching from the west will inject "baroclinic" energy--the energy one can derive from the atmosphere when warm and cold air masses lie in close proximity to each other. Sandy's drop in central pressure from 969 mb at 5 am to 960 mb at 8 am this morning may be due, in part, to some baroclinic energy helping intensify the storm. This sort of effect helps spread out the storm's strong winds over a wider area of ocean; Sandy's diameter of tropical storm-force winds are predicted to expand from 660 miles to 760 miles by Sunday afternoon. This will increase the total amount of wind energy of the storm, keeping the storm surge threat very high. This morning's 9:30 am EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.3 on a scale of 0 to 6, However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was exceptionally high: 5.2 on a scale of 0 to 6. Sandy's large wind field will drive a damaging storm surge of 3 - 6 feet to the right of where the center makes landfall. These storm surge heights will be among the highest ever recorded along the affected coasts, and will have the potential to cause billions of dollars in damage. The latest set of 00Z (8 pm EDT) and 06Z (2 am EDT) computer model runs have come into better agreement on the timing and landfall location of Sandy. Our two top models, the ECMWF and GFS, both call for landfall between 10 pm Monday night and 4 am Tuesday morning, with the center coming ashore between Delaware and New York City.

A multi-billion dollar disaster likely in the U.S.
I expect Sandy's impacts along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England coasts to cost at least $2 billion in insured damage and lost business, and there is a danger the storm could cost much more. Steve Bowen, meteorologist for insurance broker AON Benfield, put it this way for me this morning: "Given the level of losses associated with Irene last year and the current projections of extended high wind, heavy rainfall, coastal surge and an inland flooding threat for many of the same areas with Sandy, it would not come as a complete surprise to see a multi-billion dollar economic loss." Sandy should bring sustained winds of 50 - 70 mph with gusts over hurricane force to a large section of coast. With most of the trees still in leaf, there will be widespread power outages due to downed trees, and the potential for a billion dollars in wind damage.


Figure 2. Storm surge from Tropical Storm Irene at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island on Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:48 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.13 feet. The storm tide--how high the water got when factoring in both the tide and the storm surge--peaked at 9.5' above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) at 8:42 am. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 3. Predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at The Battery on the south shore of Manhattan, New York City, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFS model, and predicts that the peak storm surge from Sandy will reach 5.5' on Monday night October 29, which is 1.4' higher than Irene's storm surge. This forecast has the peak surge occurring near high tide, bringing the maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--to 10.5', a foot higher than Irene. At this level, water will very likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. Notice: this is not an official NHC storm surge forecast, and the storm surge may be higher or lower than this, depending upon the strength, track, and timing of Sandy.

Sandy's storm surge may flood New York City's subway system, costing billions
Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 400 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its peak winds would ordinarily suggest. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be about 5% higher than typical, increasing the potential for damaging storm surge flooding. Fortunately, Sandy is now predicted to make a fairly rapid approach to the coast, meaning that the storm surge will not affect the coast for multiple high tide cycles. If Sandy hits near New York City, as the GFS model predicts, the storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. However, the town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to the storm surge, and fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. New York was not as lucky on December 12, 1992, when a 990 mb Nor'easter drove an 8-foot storm surge into Battery Park, flooding the NYC subway and the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) train systems in Hoboken New Jersey. FDR Drive in lower Manhattan was flooded with 4 feet of water, which stranded more than 50 cars and required scuba divers to rescue some of the drivers. Mass transit between New Jersey and New York was down for ten days, and the storm did hundreds of millions in damage to the city. The highest water level recorded at the Battery in the past century came in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, which brought a storm surge of 8.36 feet to the Battery and flooded lower Manhattan to West and Cortland Streets. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory, Sandy's storm surge may be higher than Irene's, and has the potential to flood New York City's subway system (Figure 4.) The amount of water will depend critically upon whether or not the peak storm surge arrives at high tide or not. If the peak surge arrives near Monday evening's high tide near 9 pm EDT, a portion of New York City's subway system could flood, resulting in billions of dollars in damage. I give a 30% chance that Sandy's storm surge will end up flooding a portion of the New York City subway system.

An excellent September 2012 article in the New York Times titled, "New York Is Lagging as Seas and Risks Rise, Critics Warn" quoted Dr. Klaus H. Jacob, a research scientist at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, on how lucky New York City got with Hurricane Irene. If the storm surge from Irene had been just one foot higher, "subway tunnels would have flooded, segments of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Drive and roads along the Hudson River would have turned into rivers, and sections of the commuter rail system would have been impassable or bereft of power," he said, and the subway tunnels under the Harlem and East Rivers would have been unusable for nearly a month, or longer, at an economic loss of about $55 billion. Dr. Jacob is an adviser to the city on climate change, and an author of the 2011 state study that laid out the flooding prospects. “We’ve been extremely lucky,” he said. “I’m disappointed that the political process hasn’t recognized that we’re playing Russian roulette.” A substantial portion of New York City's electrical system is underground in flood-prone areas. Consolidated Edison, the utility that supplies electricity to most of the city, estimates that adaptations like installing submersible switches and moving high-voltage transformers above ground level would cost at least $250 million. Lacking the means, it is making gradual adjustments, with about $24 million spent in flood zones since 2007. At a conference I attended this summer in Hoboken on natural hazards on urban coasts, I talked to an official with Consolidated Edison, who was responsible for turning off Lower Manhattan's power if a storm surge floods the subway system. He said that he was ready to throw the switch during Irene, but was glad it turned out not to be needed.


Figure 4. Predicted 5-day rainfall for the period ending Thursday morning, November 1, 2012, at 8am EDT. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 5. Actual rainfall for 2011's Hurricane Irene, which caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. Sandy's rains are predicted to be about 20% less than Irene's. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.



Figure 6. Top: Current soil moisture profiles over the mid-Atlantic show mostly near-average amounts of moisture, with some dry areas in the lowest 30th percentile in recorded history over much of Delaware and Southeastern Maryland. In contrast, soil moisture profiles just before Hurricane Irene arrived, on August 24, 2011 (bottom) ranked in the top 1% in recorded history (dark green colors) over portions of NJ, PA, and NY. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.


Figure 7. A comparison of river levels just before Hurricane Sandy's arrival (left) and just before Hurricane Irene of 2011 (right) shows that river levels were much higher in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast prior to the arrival of Irene. The area of highest concern for river flooding for Sandy is eastern Pennsylvania, where river levels are in the 76 - 90th percentile, and soil moisture is in the 70th percentile. Image credit: USGS.

Sandy's rains
Sandy is expected to dump 5 - 10 inches of rain along the coast near the point the center comes ashore, and 3 - 4 inches several hundred miles inland. Higher isolated rainfall amounts of fifteen inches are likely. Rains of this magnitude are going to cause trouble. If we compare the predicted rainfall amounts for Sandy (Figure 4) with those from Hurricane Irene of 2011 (Figure 5), Sandy's are expected to be about 20% less. Hurricane Irene caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. However, the region most heavily impacted by Irene's heavy rains had very wet soils and very high river levels before Irene arrived, due to heavy rains that occurred in the weeks before the hurricane hit. That is not the case for Sandy; soil moisture is near average over most of the mid-Atlantic, and is in the lowest 30th percentile in recorded history over much of Delaware and Southeastern Maryland (Figure 6.) One region of possible concern is the Susquehanna River Valley in Eastern Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is in the 70th percentile, and river levels are in the 76th - 90th percentile. This area is currently expected to receive 2 - 4 inches of rain (Figure 4), which is not enough to cause catastrophic flooding like occurred for Hurricane Irene. However, it is quite possible that the axis of heaviest rains will shift northwards from this forecast. I expect that river flooding from Sandy will cause less than $1 billion in damage.

Links
To find out if you need to evacuate, please contact your local emergency management office. They will have the latest information. People living in New York City can find their evacuation zone here or use this map. FEMA has information on preparing for hurricanes.

People with disabilities and caregivers seeking information on accessible shelter and transportation can contact portlight.org

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Late Season Tropical Storms that have affected the U.S. north of Hatteras. He also has a post, Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook for New York City.

Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation.
Five-minute video of Hurricane Sandy on Thursday as seen from the International Space Station.

I'll probably leave this post up until late morning Sunday, unless there are some significant changes to report.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Sandy Sea Foam - Marineland FL (Talkingrock)
The amount of sea foam generated by the high sustained winds is impressive as Hurricane Sandy floods the beach at Marineland Florida. You can see the palms in the background straining against the wind.
Hurricane Sandy Sea Foam - Marineland FL
Ormond Beach, Florida (kimshot)
Hurricaine Sandy
Ormond Beach, Florida
Deerfield Beach Fl. Sandy remnants (KFLWESTBOCA)
West coast style waves
Deerfield Beach Fl. Sandy remnants

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GFS 18Z 36 HRS TO 69 HRS

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Quoting violet312s:


Very true. People are just looking at the track cone and thinking they'll have no impact.


I thought the same thing yesterday when we were put in a TS warning and werent in the cone..that NHC cone map only follows the center of the storm and not the width of the storm..
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GFS 18Z 24 HRS TO 69 HRS

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Quoting washingtonian115:
I see they are still ademant about sending it into the Delemarva.Aren't most models sending it into New Jersey.


NHC track splits it right in the middle between the two
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I see they are still ademant about sending it into the Delemarva.Aren't most models sending it into New Jersey.

Latest GFS has her at 948MB sitting atop Middleton, Edison, NJ area. Yet another doom run for NYC. Better for you in D.C. I guess.
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Quoting PlazaRed:

What system of voting do they use on the East Caost?
Paper or eletroninc? If the power is down, then its going to affect things to some minor percentage until its restored and by then all the other results will be in, hence giving people reasons to vote late who might not have voted in the first place.
As the storm will be over well before election day then there will be massive chaos and clean ups going on all over the East Coast.
I tried to tell some people in the NY area via e-mails about the potential dangers of this storm but they seemed to think I was misled!


I repeat the focus is on Sandy but early voting has started in many states if not all..Im sure if people are aware of an impending storm heading their way in the NE, then they will or have already taken advantage of early voting
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twc have their team out filming costa guard new jersey right now. no twc doing an unreal service. good luck all
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Quoting 954FtLCane:
Beautiful although a windy one down here in SE Fla. The cloud bank looks to be just north of us here in Ft Laud. Good luck

Good words, you guys have had your storms over the past years, eventually, we had to get one. Right now, it is too healthy for us and will get stronger along the way.
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Quoting ncstorm:
I think this says it all

I see they are still ademant about sending it into the Delemarva.Aren't most models sending it into New Jersey.
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Quoting ncstorm:
I think this says it all



Very true. People are just looking at the track cone and thinking they'll have no impact.
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I saw a sign earlier in my downtown (Western CT)
that basically was the same sign they used in Irene
saying Irene, which was crossed out, then said:

SANDY
BE GENTLE

then another sign to the right of that one said:

BETTER SAFE THAN SORRY.


Really taken heed of this storm.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:
who goes out and votes at a higher percentage with bad weather? Democrats or Republicans?

What system of voting do they use on the East Coast?
Paper or eletronic? If the power is down, then its going to affect things to some minor percentage until its restored and by then all the other results will be in, hence giving people reasons to vote late who might not have voted in the first place.
As the storm will be over well before election day then there will be massive chaos and clean ups going on all over the East Coast.
I tried to tell some people in the NY area via e-mails about the potential dangers of this storm but they seemed to think I was misled!
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In looking at the cone of doom and reading between the lines of the NHC 5PM discussion............when they say:
.
.
THE CYCLONE
SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD...THEN WESTWARD AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH. ONCE AGAIN...DRAWING A
STRAIGHT LINE BETWEEN THE 48- AND 72-HOUR FORECAST POINTS DOES NOT
QUITE DEPICT HOW CLOSE THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO COME TO LONG
ISLAND. HAVING SAID THAT...IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO FOCUS ON THE
EXACT TRACK...BOTH BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND BECAUSE THE
IMPACTS ARE GOING TO COVER SUCH A LARGE AREA AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
.
.
.
This implies to me that the thinking is a straight east to west moving center right along the 40th parallel...just raking Long Island and NYC before landing in North Jersey. Unprecedented! This is like an episode of "It Could Happen Tomorrow", except in this case it could happen tomorrow.
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Wow looks like DELMARVA area is the primary location for landfall.
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NOAA plane going to make pass from south to north.


URNT15 KWBC 272136
NOAA2 1718A SANDY HDOB 11 20121027
212700 2911N 07500W 6435 03555 9704 +097 +035 256059 059 040 000 00
212730 2913N 07500W 6434 03553 9707 +094 +015 261062 063 039 000 00
212800 2916N 07500W 6433 03549 9702 +095 +011 262063 064 040 000 00
212830 2918N 07459W 6434 03546 9696 +098 +008 259062 062 040 001 00
212900 2921N 07459W 6435 03542 9693 +096 +020 259061 062 040 000 00
212930 2923N 07459W 6436 03537 9688 +097 +029 258060 061 041 000 00
213000 2925N 07459W 6436 03534 9683 +098 +037 256058 059 042 001 00
213030 2928N 07459W 6436 03530 9677 +097 +047 255055 057 042 001 00
213100 2930N 07459W 6435 03527 9680 +092 +055 252051 052 043 001 00
213130 2933N 07459W 6435 03521 9670 +095 +051 251050 051 044 004 00
213200 2935N 07459W 6436 03518 9658 +102 +044 249052 053 046 004 00
213230 2938N 07459W 6437 03513 9646 +109 +037 249052 054 045 002 00
213300 2940N 07459W 6437 03510 9636 +114 +038 246051 052 045 002 00
213330 2942N 07500W 6437 03506 9626 +118 +049 243052 053 044 002 00
213400 2945N 07500W 6438 03503 9621 +119 +057 237052 053 041 003 00
213430 2947N 07500W 6436 03502 9623 +114 +063 238048 052 036 000 00
213500 2950N 07500W 6437 03498 9619 +115 +064 238045 045 034 000 00
213530 2952N 07500W 6436 03496 9616 +115 +068 235045 046 031 001 00
213600 2954N 07500W 6437 03492 9606 +119 +068 233042 043 032 001 00
213630 2957N 07500W 6437 03490 9599 +122 +070 233039 041 030 001 00
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 16105
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Do you have a link for this?


I found this under the Thurmont, MD scientic forecast discussion here on WU. just look up the Baltimore Maryland
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 134 Comments: 20655
Jim Cantore@JimCantore I completely disagree with NHC not putting up Hurricane warnings for the northeast. #sandy
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14876
.
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Beautiful although a windy one down here in SE Fla. The cloud bank looks to be just north of us here in Ft Laud. Good luck and heed all precautions up north.
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Been a longtime lurker and dont post very often but as a native New Jersyian and Jersey shore resident (Toms River) I have to say I am flabbergasted by how many people I know could care less about this storm. I am amazed at how many people up here just have a complete disregard for the weather and after affects of a system like this. I am well prepared (including booze) and me and my neighbors are all watching out for each other so I am not as worried as I was a few days ago, final preps were finished today and we are secure but I worry about what I will see on the other side of this. I have spent many years praying for my southern neighbors when these systems appear it is sort of unnerving knowing my friends are now praying for me. I will be posting for as long as I can until the wifi goes. Sporadically after that as cell service permits. so far it seems like I am at ground zero here so, cheers guys looks like Its my turn in the barrel, Lol.
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Quoting barbamz:
Loop of the day with Sandy just before sunset.you see the new convection on the northwestern side of her center.

Pretty cool is you zoom it in, you can see the overshooting billowing tops completely cover up the setting sun's shadows on the COC. Quite an image. Enjoy it for a little longer, cuz soon it'll be dark!

Link
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I think this says it all

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Quoting RitaEvac:
I have flipped thru news stations like CNN, FOX, HLN, these nit wits are talking nothing but politics and voting and what not, talking to people, etc.....these degenerate idiotic media stations and who run them have no clue that the headlines are gonna be the storm... ALL FRIGGIN WEEK AHEAD. PERIOD.
but i gotta say Rita that TWC stepping up and being a weather station like the old days
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Quoting RascalNag:
Link

Convection is still happening over the core, and the dry air is being pushed out further and further east of the center it seems. And I'm not totally sure on this, but it looks some some of Sandy's own moisture out to the West is getting sucked into the stream and helping fight off all that dryness. Maybe the beginning of that wrap around leftlink mentioned? May very well be too early to say that though. But I think Sandy is past the worst the environment has to offer.

You're right I think. Shear is decreasing, and will continue to do so. And mid-level 700-500MB moisture content isn't all that bad according to the SHIPS 18Z, so perhaps she fares well with it or she doesn't gulp it into her circulation.
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Quoting Methurricanes:
500pm track, North or South?



little to no change
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Loop of the day with Sandy just before sunset. You see the new convection on the northwestern side of her center.
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500pm track, North or South?
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who goes out and votes at a higher percentage with bad weather? Democrats or Republicans?
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The huge low NE of Sandy diving south has really caught my attention, awesome event unfolding. And cold air mass to the west of Sandy.....one for the books
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Link

Convection is still happening over the core, and the dry air is being pushed out further and further east of the center it seems. And I'm not totally sure on this, but it looks some some of Sandy's own moisture out to the West is getting sucked into the stream and helping fight off all that dryness. Maybe the beginning of that wrap around leftlink mentioned? May very well be too early to say that though. But I think Sandy is past the worst the environment has to offer.
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The only people happy about this are independent adjusters, who are about to make more Christmas money than they have ever seen in the Mid Atlantic and NE.
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Quoting AllyBama:
I am like everyone else in "awe" of the magnitude of this "Frankenstorm". My daughter and her family live in this area and so this mother hen is watching! Here is a quote from the one of the mets in the Baltimore/DC area. Everyone needs to prepare and be alert to changing conditions.

"high winds will be a big issue...with sustained winds ranging
from 30 to as high as 45 miles per hour with gusts to 60 miles per hour. See gridded
forecast for details. Of course...just where winds will crash
down will be dependent on Sandy/S track and how the transition to
an extratropical storm occurs. Also...with forecast 850 hpa 80-110
knots winds advertized in the models...how much/when these winds mix
down is difficult to pin down. These winds are just amazing in
terms of their high speed. I cannot recall ever seeing model
forecasts of such an expansive areal wind field with values so
high for so long a time. We are breaking New Ground here.

"

Do you have a link for this?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


That is one of most amazing storms I have ever seen...just from Satellite representation alone. 93 super storm is first immediate thing that comes to my mind when looking at that right there.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, with an extremely important Presidential election just 10 days away, I wouldn't call covering it "degenerate" and "idiotic". With several 24-hour news channels, I'm sure both stories can be covered. Perhaps not adequately--but covered.


TWC is rightfully on it, which they should, since that is what the channel is called anyway
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Quoting RitaEvac:
I have flipped thru news stations like CNN, FOX, HLN, these nit wits are talking nothing but politics and voting and what not, talking to people, etc.....these degenerate idiotic media stations and who run them have no clue that the headlines are gonna be the storm... ALL FRIGGIN WEEK AHEAD. PERIOD.
Well, with an extremely important Presidential election just 10 days away, I wouldn't call covering it "degenerate" and "idiotic". With several 24-hour news channels, I'm sure both stories can be covered. Perhaps not adequately--but covered.
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Huge low racing south to Sandy's NE as Sandy is plowing north, this is gonna be something to watch, history in the making coming to fruition
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If this storm follows thru and be all it can be, the election WILL be delayed, as millions are gonna be affected.
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Quoting DFWjc:
Link

The big waves are just crashing in Palm Beach...WOW!!!


Same as yesterday.
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Quoting AllyBama:
I am like everyone else in "awe" of the magnitude of this "Frankenstorm". My daughter and her family live in this area and so this mother hen is watching! Here is a quote from the one of the mets in the Baltimore/DC area. Everyone needs to prepare and be alert to changing conditions.

"high winds will be a big issue...with sustained winds ranging
from 30 to as high as 45 miles per hour with gusts to 60 miles per hour. See gridded
forecast for details. Of course...just where winds will crash
down will be dependent on Sandy/S track and how the transition to
an extratropical storm occurs. Also...with forecast 850 hpa 80-110
knots winds advertized in the models...how much/when these winds mix
down is difficult to pin down. These winds are just amazing in
terms of their high speed. I cannot recall ever seeing model
forecasts of such an expansive areal wind field with values so
high for so long a time. We are breaking New Ground here.

"
In the D.C region they have shelters open and somw hotels have even offered to open rooms.Some have already been sold out.
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I have flipped thru news stations like CNN, FOX, HLN, these nit wits are talking nothing but politics and voting and what not, talking to people, etc.....these degenerate idiotic media stations and who run them have no clue that the headlines are gonna be the storm... ALL FRIGGIN WEEK AHEAD. PERIOD.
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"He laid down the boogie...and he played that funky music 'til he....died..."
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Quoting Articuno:

Lol. Bad typo day huh? xD


iPad auto correct getting carried away, more like it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 25342
Look for a LOT of babies born in August of next year name Sandy along the east coast..

Hurricane Babies: Dozens Born in North Carolina, Virginia Hospitals As Irene Made Its Way Up East Coast
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Question: if the portions of the storm over florida interact with the trailing end of the cold front that is over land, is there a potential for the storm to be pulled towards Cape Hatteras?
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hate to sacrifice the fine people from maine but lets get this beast to move north of the models
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Sand is died with Igor for the largest tropical cyclone in terms of diameter in recorded history. If it gets any larger, it will be number one.

Lol. Bad typo day huh? xD
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Sand is died with Igor for the largest tropical cyclone in terms of diameter in recorded history. If it gets any larger, it will be number one.



yep but Igor went out too sea sandy will be hiting land wish I all so think this will be the 1st time evere we had a name storm with TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520
MILES hiting land
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5100 Comments: 117336
What is so deceiving about the cone is the cone expresses the uncertainty of the track, not the impact zones. That's why looking at the wind field and wind probabilities is actually more important given Sandy's size to understand how the storm will impact you.
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Hybrid Sandy's an incredible evolution in past 24 hrs alone, layer analysis shows maintaining warm core from surface to mid levels but the field aloft above 500 mb is anything but typical for a tropical cyclone, being now under an upper trof configuration, yet somewhat still within a broader expanse of an anticyclone... Was amazing transformation to view on water vapor since late yesterday, watching the strong cold frontal trof come across the Gulf, forcing the ULL that had been over W Cuba NEWD to merge with Sandy... hence it's subtropical / extratropical / gale low appearance today and going forward.

As for the blocking high that'll force Hybrid Sandy to turn back - it's yet to develop noticeably, only hint of it is near / SW of Greenland... Waiting on the next evolution in this puzzle, as the large ULL churning SE of Newfoundland in the NW Atlantic will shift over the next 24-48 hrs farther SE, shrink and weaken, and be replaced by the retrograding W / SW-ward building high to set up over Labrador / Newfoundland. Much of this particular "atmospheric oddity" for late October can be attributed to the current strongly negative NAO.

Unlike most E coast hurricanes and Nor'easters paralleling the coast, the solid consensus forecast of a deepening sub-950 mb hybrid storm hooking back to a NW-W trajectory at landfall has far more extreme damage potential... appears, very high probability. Hopefully, all under the threat comprehend the hybrid nature of this storm offering similar characteristics of a subtropical or powerful Nor'easter with large wind field affecting lot of mid-Atlantic / N East, there too will be a concentrated band of strongest winds north / east of low center... and last GFS run indicating landfall into central NJ still keeps worse-case scenario of highest populated area slammed with a minimum 55-80 knot surface winds and significant surge, etc on Monday evening... Based on the trajectory toward landfall and the strengthening hybrid storm structure by then, comparisons to Irene differ quite substantially, so I'd offer caution on such.

Just MHO, but ignore it as over-hype at your peril...
Prayers and best wishes, folks!

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