Sandy likely to be a multi-billion dollar disaster for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on October 27, 2012

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Hurricane Sandy is holding its own against high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and has regained its Category 1 strength after falling to tropical storm strength early this morning. Sandy is a massive storm, with tropical storm-force winds that span a 660-mile diameter area of ocean from a point even with central Florida northwards to a point off the central North Carolina coast. Twelve-foot high seas cover a diameter of ocean 1,000 miles across. A buoy 150 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida reported sustained winds of 63 mph, gusting to 76 mph, at 9:43 am EDT. Another buoy about 100 miles east of the coast of Georgia reported sustained winds of 69 mph at 11:52 am EDT. Due to the high wind shear and interaction with a trough of low pressure to Sandy's west, the storm has a rather unusual structure, with the strongest winds on the southwest side of the center, but a larger area of tropical storm-force winds to the northeast of the center. Satellite loops show that the low-level center of Sandy is partially exposed to view, with a small clump of heavy thunderstorms near the center. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity is on the storm's west side, in a thick band several hundred miles removed from the center, giving Sandy more the appearance of a subtropical storm rather than a hurricane.


Figure 1. Early afternoon satellite image of Sandy.

Sandy's death toll at 48
Sandy was a brutal storm for the Caribbean, with a total death toll that now stands at 48. The death toll is highest in Haiti, with 34 dead. The toll will likely rise as remote areas cut off from communications are reached. Cuban state media is reporting that eleven people were killed on Cuba, and damage was heavy, with 35,000 homes damaged or destroyed. Cuba is probably the most hurricane-prepared nation in the world, and it is unusual for them to experience such a high death toll in a hurricane. Sandy was Cuba's deadliest hurricane since Category 4 Hurricane Dennis killed sixteen people in 2005. Sandy is also being blamed for 1 death in Jamaica, 1 in the Bahamas, and 1 in Puerto Rico.

Forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is expected to remain a high 30 - 40 knots for the next two days, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure to its west. The high shear should keep Sandy from intensifying the way most hurricanes do--by pulling heat energy out of the ocean. However, a trough of low pressure approaching from the west will inject "baroclinic" energy--the energy one can derive from the atmosphere when warm and cold air masses lie in close proximity to each other. Sandy's drop in central pressure from 969 mb at 5 am to 960 mb at 8 am this morning may be due, in part, to some baroclinic energy helping intensify the storm. This sort of effect helps spread out the storm's strong winds over a wider area of ocean; Sandy's diameter of tropical storm-force winds are predicted to expand from 660 miles to 760 miles by Sunday afternoon. This will increase the total amount of wind energy of the storm, keeping the storm surge threat very high. This morning's 9:30 am EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.3 on a scale of 0 to 6, However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was exceptionally high: 5.2 on a scale of 0 to 6. Sandy's large wind field will drive a damaging storm surge of 3 - 6 feet to the right of where the center makes landfall. These storm surge heights will be among the highest ever recorded along the affected coasts, and will have the potential to cause billions of dollars in damage. The latest set of 00Z (8 pm EDT) and 06Z (2 am EDT) computer model runs have come into better agreement on the timing and landfall location of Sandy. Our two top models, the ECMWF and GFS, both call for landfall between 10 pm Monday night and 4 am Tuesday morning, with the center coming ashore between Delaware and New York City.

A multi-billion dollar disaster likely in the U.S.
I expect Sandy's impacts along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England coasts to cost at least $2 billion in insured damage and lost business, and there is a danger the storm could cost much more. Steve Bowen, meteorologist for insurance broker AON Benfield, put it this way for me this morning: "Given the level of losses associated with Irene last year and the current projections of extended high wind, heavy rainfall, coastal surge and an inland flooding threat for many of the same areas with Sandy, it would not come as a complete surprise to see a multi-billion dollar economic loss." Sandy should bring sustained winds of 50 - 70 mph with gusts over hurricane force to a large section of coast. With most of the trees still in leaf, there will be widespread power outages due to downed trees, and the potential for a billion dollars in wind damage.


Figure 2. Storm surge from Tropical Storm Irene at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island on Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:48 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.13 feet. The storm tide--how high the water got when factoring in both the tide and the storm surge--peaked at 9.5' above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) at 8:42 am. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 3. Predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at The Battery on the south shore of Manhattan, New York City, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFS model, and predicts that the peak storm surge from Sandy will reach 5.5' on Monday night October 29, which is 1.4' higher than Irene's storm surge. This forecast has the peak surge occurring near high tide, bringing the maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--to 10.5', a foot higher than Irene. At this level, water will very likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. Notice: this is not an official NHC storm surge forecast, and the storm surge may be higher or lower than this, depending upon the strength, track, and timing of Sandy.

Sandy's storm surge may flood New York City's subway system, costing billions
Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 400 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its peak winds would ordinarily suggest. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be about 5% higher than typical, increasing the potential for damaging storm surge flooding. Fortunately, Sandy is now predicted to make a fairly rapid approach to the coast, meaning that the storm surge will not affect the coast for multiple high tide cycles. If Sandy hits near New York City, as the GFS model predicts, the storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. However, the town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to the storm surge, and fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. New York was not as lucky on December 12, 1992, when a 990 mb Nor'easter drove an 8-foot storm surge into Battery Park, flooding the NYC subway and the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) train systems in Hoboken New Jersey. FDR Drive in lower Manhattan was flooded with 4 feet of water, which stranded more than 50 cars and required scuba divers to rescue some of the drivers. Mass transit between New Jersey and New York was down for ten days, and the storm did hundreds of millions in damage to the city. The highest water level recorded at the Battery in the past century came in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, which brought a storm surge of 8.36 feet to the Battery and flooded lower Manhattan to West and Cortland Streets. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory, Sandy's storm surge may be higher than Irene's, and has the potential to flood New York City's subway system (Figure 4.) The amount of water will depend critically upon whether or not the peak storm surge arrives at high tide or not. If the peak surge arrives near Monday evening's high tide near 9 pm EDT, a portion of New York City's subway system could flood, resulting in billions of dollars in damage. I give a 30% chance that Sandy's storm surge will end up flooding a portion of the New York City subway system.

An excellent September 2012 article in the New York Times titled, "New York Is Lagging as Seas and Risks Rise, Critics Warn" quoted Dr. Klaus H. Jacob, a research scientist at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, on how lucky New York City got with Hurricane Irene. If the storm surge from Irene had been just one foot higher, "subway tunnels would have flooded, segments of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Drive and roads along the Hudson River would have turned into rivers, and sections of the commuter rail system would have been impassable or bereft of power," he said, and the subway tunnels under the Harlem and East Rivers would have been unusable for nearly a month, or longer, at an economic loss of about $55 billion. Dr. Jacob is an adviser to the city on climate change, and an author of the 2011 state study that laid out the flooding prospects. “We’ve been extremely lucky,” he said. “I’m disappointed that the political process hasn’t recognized that we’re playing Russian roulette.” A substantial portion of New York City's electrical system is underground in flood-prone areas. Consolidated Edison, the utility that supplies electricity to most of the city, estimates that adaptations like installing submersible switches and moving high-voltage transformers above ground level would cost at least $250 million. Lacking the means, it is making gradual adjustments, with about $24 million spent in flood zones since 2007. At a conference I attended this summer in Hoboken on natural hazards on urban coasts, I talked to an official with Consolidated Edison, who was responsible for turning off Lower Manhattan's power if a storm surge floods the subway system. He said that he was ready to throw the switch during Irene, but was glad it turned out not to be needed.


Figure 4. Predicted 5-day rainfall for the period ending Thursday morning, November 1, 2012, at 8am EDT. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 5. Actual rainfall for 2011's Hurricane Irene, which caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. Sandy's rains are predicted to be about 20% less than Irene's. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.



Figure 6. Top: Current soil moisture profiles over the mid-Atlantic show mostly near-average amounts of moisture, with some dry areas in the lowest 30th percentile in recorded history over much of Delaware and Southeastern Maryland. In contrast, soil moisture profiles just before Hurricane Irene arrived, on August 24, 2011 (bottom) ranked in the top 1% in recorded history (dark green colors) over portions of NJ, PA, and NY. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.


Figure 7. A comparison of river levels just before Hurricane Sandy's arrival (left) and just before Hurricane Irene of 2011 (right) shows that river levels were much higher in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast prior to the arrival of Irene. The area of highest concern for river flooding for Sandy is eastern Pennsylvania, where river levels are in the 76 - 90th percentile, and soil moisture is in the 70th percentile. Image credit: USGS.

Sandy's rains
Sandy is expected to dump 5 - 10 inches of rain along the coast near the point the center comes ashore, and 3 - 4 inches several hundred miles inland. Higher isolated rainfall amounts of fifteen inches are likely. Rains of this magnitude are going to cause trouble. If we compare the predicted rainfall amounts for Sandy (Figure 4) with those from Hurricane Irene of 2011 (Figure 5), Sandy's are expected to be about 20% less. Hurricane Irene caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. However, the region most heavily impacted by Irene's heavy rains had very wet soils and very high river levels before Irene arrived, due to heavy rains that occurred in the weeks before the hurricane hit. That is not the case for Sandy; soil moisture is near average over most of the mid-Atlantic, and is in the lowest 30th percentile in recorded history over much of Delaware and Southeastern Maryland (Figure 6.) One region of possible concern is the Susquehanna River Valley in Eastern Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is in the 70th percentile, and river levels are in the 76th - 90th percentile. This area is currently expected to receive 2 - 4 inches of rain (Figure 4), which is not enough to cause catastrophic flooding like occurred for Hurricane Irene. However, it is quite possible that the axis of heaviest rains will shift northwards from this forecast. I expect that river flooding from Sandy will cause less than $1 billion in damage.

Links
To find out if you need to evacuate, please contact your local emergency management office. They will have the latest information. People living in New York City can find their evacuation zone here or use this map. FEMA has information on preparing for hurricanes.

People with disabilities and caregivers seeking information on accessible shelter and transportation can contact portlight.org

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Late Season Tropical Storms that have affected the U.S. north of Hatteras. He also has a post, Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook for New York City.

Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation.
Five-minute video of Hurricane Sandy on Thursday as seen from the International Space Station.

I'll probably leave this post up until late morning Sunday, unless there are some significant changes to report.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Sandy Sea Foam - Marineland FL (Talkingrock)
The amount of sea foam generated by the high sustained winds is impressive as Hurricane Sandy floods the beach at Marineland Florida. You can see the palms in the background straining against the wind.
Hurricane Sandy Sea Foam - Marineland FL
Ormond Beach, Florida (kimshot)
Hurricaine Sandy
Ormond Beach, Florida
Deerfield Beach Fl. Sandy remnants (KFLWESTBOCA)
West coast style waves
Deerfield Beach Fl. Sandy remnants

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This is not your normal Hurricane, and it's never been more true DO Not just look at where the center will come ashore. The angle will cause the surge to be bad north of the center in NEW YORK.
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Quoting snotly:
Dang, the ice-machine just broke on my sword-fishing boat, I gotta get back to market in Gloucester, MA ASAP. I'm off the Flemish Cap, what does the weather look like back state side?

It's nice in MA this morning. Cloudy but mild and just a light breeze. You'll be fine pretty much all day getting in here.
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Quoting snotly:
Dang, the ice-machine just broke on my sword-fishing boat, I gotta get back to market in Gloucester, MA ASAP. I'm off the Flemish Cap, what does the weather look like back state side?


how long will it take you to get there?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9770
1442. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 28031
Quoting TheDewd:
Our very own Dr. Masters on Reuters:

Link


Thanks, Dewd!

Well done, Doc!
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It didn't look like a hurricane in the Caribbean. It looked like a major hurricane there. :P

It was a major hurricane. In my mind it was..
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1439. Grothar
36 hours





72 hours


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 28031
1438. snotly
Dang, the ice-machine just broke on my sword-fishing boat, I gotta get back to market in Gloucester, MA ASAP. I'm off the Flemish Cap, what does the weather look like back state side?
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Does any one know how the Outer Banks are doing?The road has got to be washed out in places allready! I heard that place floods during fullmoon high tides without giant storms just off to its East!!!!!
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Quoting sigh:

It's not a question of evacuating all of NYC. It's a question of the small percentage of residents who live in flood areas walking to a neighbor's apartment or a shelter outside of a flood area. Nobody in NYC has to travel more than a mile to get out of harm's way. Most of them just need to arrange to spend the day a few blocks away.


I think the time to evacuate NYC is over, so many people live there......so this is major problem for mayor Bloomber... This storm is supposed to expand in the next 24 hours, they will start feel TS wind tomorow in the morning
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2178
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Not true they found hurricane winds S/W of the center and so did ship reports!!


Yup. Seems the south side is the strongest, the GFDL and HWRF say that one coming.
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Quoting sigh:

It's not a question of evacuating all of NYC. It's a question of the small percentage of residents who live in flood areas walking to a neighbor's apartment or a shelter outside of a flood area. Nobody in NYC has to travel more than a mile to get out of harm's way. Most of them just need to arrange to spend the day a few blocks away.


Also to consider high rise building with possible wind damage, and being stuck 20 plus floors up with no power. Most high rise windows will blow with debris hitting. I recall our high rise windows here in NOLA. So many people had to stay in hallways for days on end. Not good.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
for once? It definitely looked like a hurricane in the Caribbean....

It didn't look like a hurricane in the Caribbean. It looked like a major hurricane there. :P
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1432. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 28031
1431. BDAwx
Quoting bxstormwatcher:
Link


What sandy looks like from Bermuda Radar


There was a reported tornado in Bermuda around 10am local time.
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Quoting VermontStorms:
Yes, we should all make our own decisions and do our own planning, however, I would ask for compassion for those with less knowledge and fewer resources. Fact is, roughly half the population has IQs under 100 (and probably no one here on WU), and even among the other half, understanding of probabilities is very lacking. While it may seem like a lot of us lurk here on WU< we are still a tiny minority of the population. And when TWC and other "news" entities hype every snow flake like the end of times is coming, it makes it very hard for folks without other sources of information to distinguish when they really should be concerned.

And among all sorts of people, there are many right now who are really struggling, working 2 or 3 jobs and are just too busy and exhausted to spend time stalking every move Sandy makes.

I know many otherwise "smart" people who also misinterpret the "cone of probability" to be the map of the area that will be affected.


Well said. I know some too.
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Quoting gulfbreeze:
Not true they found hurricane winds S/W of the center and so did ship reports!!

A while ago though..
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
for once? It definitely looked like a hurricane in the Caribbean....

I would tend to agree.



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Here is a webcam showing the waves/surge while Sandy is still well offshore.

Link
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Despite the ridiculously low pressure, recon reports indicate Sandy is probably only about a 60-65mph TS right now. We'll have to see if the winds come back up as time goes on.

Not true they found hurricane winds S/W of the center and so did ship reports!!
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1425. aimetti
Quoting barbamz:
High resolution visible loop of the new eye.


wow impressive
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1424. TheDewd
Our very own Dr. Masters on Reuters:

Link
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Quoting LargoFl:
yeah this is bad..thanks




Wonder how the chesapeake bay will fair with the surge?
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1422. BDAwx
this is very interesting, to me nothing sounds like hype, it all sounds like people stressing the life threatening impacts that are forecast to be associated with this hurricane. I have heard terms 'historic', 'megastorm' etc. being thrown around, but nothing that implies that the end of times are associated with this storm - its all about interpretation I guess.

It must take a lot more for the public to think of a storm as a 'megastorm' than for a meteorologist. Because, to me, a storm this size and this powerful, forming under such a rare atmospheric alignment is definitely a megastorm.
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1421. sigh
Quoting Kristina40:
I'm pretty certain it's not even possible to get NYC evacuated before landfall. The logistics of moving millions of people just won't allow for it. That doesn't mean he shouldn't at least advise people it would be a great idea to leave if they can.

It's not a question of evacuating all of NYC. It's a question of the small percentage of residents who live in flood areas walking to a neighbor's apartment or a shelter outside of a flood area. Nobody in NYC has to travel more than a mile to get out of harm's way. Most of them just need to arrange to spend the day a few blocks away.
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1420. barbamz
High resolution visible loop of the new eye.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 72 Comments: 7895
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Sandy actually looks like a hurricane, for once.
for once? It definitely looked like a hurricane in the Caribbean....
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Link


What sandy looks like from Bermuda Radar
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1417. barbamz
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 72 Comments: 7895
sodas do nothing good for the body they are addicting too. beer is better
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Ocracoke Island, NC Highway 12 under water pic.twitter.com/Jafmi7ug
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Quoting medicroc:

My whole damn family has prepared wonderfully for this storm days in advance. Food for the babies, flashlights, everything. Who do I thank, the media, Bloomberg? No the people on this blog. Thank you all, great job


The thing is, it's not like when you buy things, food, water, batteries, etc., that you're wasting money buying things you won't ever need. I always look at it this way, I prepare and if I don't need it, then I've saved some money on grocery bills later on. Should I need it, I'm prepared.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yes, we should all make our own decisions and do our own planning, however, I would ask for compassion for those with less knowledge and fewer resources. Fact is, roughly half the population has IQs under 100 (and probably no one here on WU), and even among the other half, understanding of probabilities is very lacking. While it may seem like a lot of us lurk here on WU< we are still a tiny minority of the population. And when TWC and other "news" entities hype every snow flake like the end of times is coming, it makes it very hard for folks without other sources of information to distinguish when they really should be concerned.

And among all sorts of people, there are many right now who are really struggling, working 2 or 3 jobs and are just too busy and exhausted to spend time stalking every move Sandy makes.

I know many otherwise "smart" people who also misinterpret the "cone of probability" to be the map of the area that will be affected.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Sandy actually looks like a hurricane, for once.


Yeah, and she's really trying to get some sort of eye going it looks like.
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Wish I didn't have to go to work now. Won't be able to check updates until 5 but good luck to everyone and stay safe! I guess I'll see whats new when I get back
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Quoting ncstorm:


I believe Sherwood posted the transcript of what he said yesterday where he did advise people to make decisions and such..you guys want this man to declare panic and hysteria and to wring his hands on national TV..okay..I just dont get the bashing of this man..its easy to sit here and say what you will do but until you are in that position then you have no idea of how to run a metropolitian city..I just hope that people are not sitting there waiting on one man to tell them to leave or not..
There is, of course, a world of difference between calmly discussing the very real life-threatening dangers posed by an imminent (and perhaps unprecedented) storm and "declaring panic and hysteria and wringing his hands on national TV". In the opinions of most people--that is, not just those here in this forum--Bloomberg downplayed, perhaps folishly, the severity of the situation. No one is claiming that the entire city should be evacuated or placed under martial law; we're just saying Bloomberg, as the city's leader, may have chosen words more cautious than, "Please don't go surfing during the storm". That's all.
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Sandy actually looks like a hurricane, for once.
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1408. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR MINOR FLOODING.

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HURRICANE SANDY IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO A POSITION OFF THE
VIRGINIA CAPES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST AND
MOVING TOWARD THE DELAWARE BAY EARLY TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL THEN
TRACK WEST TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.

IMPACTS INCLUDE...

DAMAGING WINDS: A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. PEAK WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH ARE LIKELY. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES.

FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN: A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNT WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE STORM. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW 5 TO 8 INCHES ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES WEST OF INTERSTATE
95. RISES ON RIVERS FROM HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLOODING
TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

COASTAL FLOODING: A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY FOR MINOR FLOODING AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WATER LEVEL ANOMALIES ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC WILL
RANGE BETWEEN ONE TO THREE FEET.

MARINE AREAS...A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. TODAY WIND
GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS...OF
50 KNOTS OR MORE...WILL DEVELOP AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY TO BELOW GALE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...BUT IS MORE LIKELY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50301
Quoting Hurricane12:
I honestly dislike when someone's angry on this blog and uses the "you guys are just irrelevant bloggers who have no idea about the world" argument, if you can even call it that. Well, yes, everyone here is a blogger, but we do have an appreciation for the weather, and you can bet that the least everyone here knows is that even the smallest of cyclones can be extremely dangerous.

My whole damn family has prepared wonderfully for this storm days in advance. Food for the babies, flashlights, everything. Who do I thank, the media, Bloomberg? No the people on this blog. Thank you all, great job
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Good morning, all. All of the NJ transit will be shut down tomorrow. I've tried to contact family in upstate NY, but no answers. But I know what my sister would say, 'that she is fine, my nephew in NJ will be fine. They may pick up a few things just in case...'
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1405. LargoFl
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

There will be major impacts in DC, it will be one of the hardest hit areas, especially with this southward shift in the models.
yeah this is bad..thanks
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50301
SANDY'S COMING!

WE MUST TAKE SPONGEBOB AND DEPLOY HIM ON THE SEAWALL.
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Quoting LargoFl:
..........you guys are better at this than i am..but from this 8am new track solution...does this look like DC will get hit hard with sandy now??

There will be major impacts in DC, it will be one of the hardest hit areas, especially with this southward shift in the models.
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Quoting Velocity23:
Is Sandy trying to build up an eyewall?
Link

Looks like it. Could be a sign of increase in winds.
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1401. LargoFl
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
912 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

ANZ330-335-282115-
/O.CON.KOKX.HF.W.0001.121029T1000Z-121030T1600Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
912 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM
MONDAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATION...LONG ISLAND SOUND.

* WINDS...EAST 40 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 KT.

* SEAS...8 TO 13 FEET.

* TIMING...GALE FORCE WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE
BY LATE TONIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE LIKELY MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BE
LOWERING BY TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 64 KT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. ALL VESSELS
SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...
UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS FOR
SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50301
Latest center pass by the AF plane shows little pressure change:

951.9 mb
(~ 28.11 inHg)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I honestly dislike when someone's angry on this blog and uses the "you guys are just irrelevant bloggers who have no idea about the world" argument, if you can even call it that. Well, yes, everyone here is a blogger, but we do have an appreciation for the weather, and you can bet that the least everyone here knows is that even the smallest of cyclones can be extremely dangerous.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'll take the small drink, popcorn without salt and corn oil, because government knows best!
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Quoting DFWjc:
Could someone explain why this trough can't push Sandy out to sea rather than sucking her into land and merging?

The models show the trough will go into a negative tilt which has the tendency to pull storms back toward it rather than push it out to sea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1396. LargoFl
Quoting 954FtLCane:
lets just evacuate the entire east coast. EVERYONE.... millions upon millions...because we know better on WU than they know about their particular cities.....uggggg....really folks! And lets place them in.....? get them there how?...
I am sure NYC's mayor has thought this out with discussions with the NHC and NWS.
yeah lets get back to weather
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50301
The ATCF just updated to reflect the 951 mb reading taken recently. FWIW, that's three millibars lower than the 954 mb reading taken when Sandy was a high-end cat 2 with 95 knot winds:

AL, 18, 2012102812, , BEST, 0, 321N, 731W, 65, 951, HU, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 150, 0, 1006, 480, 90, 80, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SANDY, D, 12, NEQ, 480, 600, 420, 270
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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