Sandy likely to be a multi-billion dollar disaster for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on October 27, 2012

Share this Blog
56
+

Hurricane Sandy is holding its own against high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and has regained its Category 1 strength after falling to tropical storm strength early this morning. Sandy is a massive storm, with tropical storm-force winds that span a 660-mile diameter area of ocean from a point even with central Florida northwards to a point off the central North Carolina coast. Twelve-foot high seas cover a diameter of ocean 1,000 miles across. A buoy 150 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida reported sustained winds of 63 mph, gusting to 76 mph, at 9:43 am EDT. Another buoy about 100 miles east of the coast of Georgia reported sustained winds of 69 mph at 11:52 am EDT. Due to the high wind shear and interaction with a trough of low pressure to Sandy's west, the storm has a rather unusual structure, with the strongest winds on the southwest side of the center, but a larger area of tropical storm-force winds to the northeast of the center. Satellite loops show that the low-level center of Sandy is partially exposed to view, with a small clump of heavy thunderstorms near the center. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity is on the storm's west side, in a thick band several hundred miles removed from the center, giving Sandy more the appearance of a subtropical storm rather than a hurricane.


Figure 1. Early afternoon satellite image of Sandy.

Sandy's death toll at 48
Sandy was a brutal storm for the Caribbean, with a total death toll that now stands at 48. The death toll is highest in Haiti, with 34 dead. The toll will likely rise as remote areas cut off from communications are reached. Cuban state media is reporting that eleven people were killed on Cuba, and damage was heavy, with 35,000 homes damaged or destroyed. Cuba is probably the most hurricane-prepared nation in the world, and it is unusual for them to experience such a high death toll in a hurricane. Sandy was Cuba's deadliest hurricane since Category 4 Hurricane Dennis killed sixteen people in 2005. Sandy is also being blamed for 1 death in Jamaica, 1 in the Bahamas, and 1 in Puerto Rico.

Forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is expected to remain a high 30 - 40 knots for the next two days, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure to its west. The high shear should keep Sandy from intensifying the way most hurricanes do--by pulling heat energy out of the ocean. However, a trough of low pressure approaching from the west will inject "baroclinic" energy--the energy one can derive from the atmosphere when warm and cold air masses lie in close proximity to each other. Sandy's drop in central pressure from 969 mb at 5 am to 960 mb at 8 am this morning may be due, in part, to some baroclinic energy helping intensify the storm. This sort of effect helps spread out the storm's strong winds over a wider area of ocean; Sandy's diameter of tropical storm-force winds are predicted to expand from 660 miles to 760 miles by Sunday afternoon. This will increase the total amount of wind energy of the storm, keeping the storm surge threat very high. This morning's 9:30 am EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.3 on a scale of 0 to 6, However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was exceptionally high: 5.2 on a scale of 0 to 6. Sandy's large wind field will drive a damaging storm surge of 3 - 6 feet to the right of where the center makes landfall. These storm surge heights will be among the highest ever recorded along the affected coasts, and will have the potential to cause billions of dollars in damage. The latest set of 00Z (8 pm EDT) and 06Z (2 am EDT) computer model runs have come into better agreement on the timing and landfall location of Sandy. Our two top models, the ECMWF and GFS, both call for landfall between 10 pm Monday night and 4 am Tuesday morning, with the center coming ashore between Delaware and New York City.

A multi-billion dollar disaster likely in the U.S.
I expect Sandy's impacts along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England coasts to cost at least $2 billion in insured damage and lost business, and there is a danger the storm could cost much more. Steve Bowen, meteorologist for insurance broker AON Benfield, put it this way for me this morning: "Given the level of losses associated with Irene last year and the current projections of extended high wind, heavy rainfall, coastal surge and an inland flooding threat for many of the same areas with Sandy, it would not come as a complete surprise to see a multi-billion dollar economic loss." Sandy should bring sustained winds of 50 - 70 mph with gusts over hurricane force to a large section of coast. With most of the trees still in leaf, there will be widespread power outages due to downed trees, and the potential for a billion dollars in wind damage.


Figure 2. Storm surge from Tropical Storm Irene at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island on Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:48 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.13 feet. The storm tide--how high the water got when factoring in both the tide and the storm surge--peaked at 9.5' above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) at 8:42 am. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 3. Predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at The Battery on the south shore of Manhattan, New York City, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFS model, and predicts that the peak storm surge from Sandy will reach 5.5' on Monday night October 29, which is 1.4' higher than Irene's storm surge. This forecast has the peak surge occurring near high tide, bringing the maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--to 10.5', a foot higher than Irene. At this level, water will very likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. Notice: this is not an official NHC storm surge forecast, and the storm surge may be higher or lower than this, depending upon the strength, track, and timing of Sandy.

Sandy's storm surge may flood New York City's subway system, costing billions
Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 400 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its peak winds would ordinarily suggest. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be about 5% higher than typical, increasing the potential for damaging storm surge flooding. Fortunately, Sandy is now predicted to make a fairly rapid approach to the coast, meaning that the storm surge will not affect the coast for multiple high tide cycles. If Sandy hits near New York City, as the GFS model predicts, the storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. However, the town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to the storm surge, and fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. New York was not as lucky on December 12, 1992, when a 990 mb Nor'easter drove an 8-foot storm surge into Battery Park, flooding the NYC subway and the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) train systems in Hoboken New Jersey. FDR Drive in lower Manhattan was flooded with 4 feet of water, which stranded more than 50 cars and required scuba divers to rescue some of the drivers. Mass transit between New Jersey and New York was down for ten days, and the storm did hundreds of millions in damage to the city. The highest water level recorded at the Battery in the past century came in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, which brought a storm surge of 8.36 feet to the Battery and flooded lower Manhattan to West and Cortland Streets. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory, Sandy's storm surge may be higher than Irene's, and has the potential to flood New York City's subway system (Figure 4.) The amount of water will depend critically upon whether or not the peak storm surge arrives at high tide or not. If the peak surge arrives near Monday evening's high tide near 9 pm EDT, a portion of New York City's subway system could flood, resulting in billions of dollars in damage. I give a 30% chance that Sandy's storm surge will end up flooding a portion of the New York City subway system.

An excellent September 2012 article in the New York Times titled, "New York Is Lagging as Seas and Risks Rise, Critics Warn" quoted Dr. Klaus H. Jacob, a research scientist at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, on how lucky New York City got with Hurricane Irene. If the storm surge from Irene had been just one foot higher, "subway tunnels would have flooded, segments of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Drive and roads along the Hudson River would have turned into rivers, and sections of the commuter rail system would have been impassable or bereft of power," he said, and the subway tunnels under the Harlem and East Rivers would have been unusable for nearly a month, or longer, at an economic loss of about $55 billion. Dr. Jacob is an adviser to the city on climate change, and an author of the 2011 state study that laid out the flooding prospects. “We’ve been extremely lucky,” he said. “I’m disappointed that the political process hasn’t recognized that we’re playing Russian roulette.” A substantial portion of New York City's electrical system is underground in flood-prone areas. Consolidated Edison, the utility that supplies electricity to most of the city, estimates that adaptations like installing submersible switches and moving high-voltage transformers above ground level would cost at least $250 million. Lacking the means, it is making gradual adjustments, with about $24 million spent in flood zones since 2007. At a conference I attended this summer in Hoboken on natural hazards on urban coasts, I talked to an official with Consolidated Edison, who was responsible for turning off Lower Manhattan's power if a storm surge floods the subway system. He said that he was ready to throw the switch during Irene, but was glad it turned out not to be needed.


Figure 4. Predicted 5-day rainfall for the period ending Thursday morning, November 1, 2012, at 8am EDT. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 5. Actual rainfall for 2011's Hurricane Irene, which caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. Sandy's rains are predicted to be about 20% less than Irene's. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.



Figure 6. Top: Current soil moisture profiles over the mid-Atlantic show mostly near-average amounts of moisture, with some dry areas in the lowest 30th percentile in recorded history over much of Delaware and Southeastern Maryland. In contrast, soil moisture profiles just before Hurricane Irene arrived, on August 24, 2011 (bottom) ranked in the top 1% in recorded history (dark green colors) over portions of NJ, PA, and NY. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.


Figure 7. A comparison of river levels just before Hurricane Sandy's arrival (left) and just before Hurricane Irene of 2011 (right) shows that river levels were much higher in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast prior to the arrival of Irene. The area of highest concern for river flooding for Sandy is eastern Pennsylvania, where river levels are in the 76 - 90th percentile, and soil moisture is in the 70th percentile. Image credit: USGS.

Sandy's rains
Sandy is expected to dump 5 - 10 inches of rain along the coast near the point the center comes ashore, and 3 - 4 inches several hundred miles inland. Higher isolated rainfall amounts of fifteen inches are likely. Rains of this magnitude are going to cause trouble. If we compare the predicted rainfall amounts for Sandy (Figure 4) with those from Hurricane Irene of 2011 (Figure 5), Sandy's are expected to be about 20% less. Hurricane Irene caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. However, the region most heavily impacted by Irene's heavy rains had very wet soils and very high river levels before Irene arrived, due to heavy rains that occurred in the weeks before the hurricane hit. That is not the case for Sandy; soil moisture is near average over most of the mid-Atlantic, and is in the lowest 30th percentile in recorded history over much of Delaware and Southeastern Maryland (Figure 6.) One region of possible concern is the Susquehanna River Valley in Eastern Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is in the 70th percentile, and river levels are in the 76th - 90th percentile. This area is currently expected to receive 2 - 4 inches of rain (Figure 4), which is not enough to cause catastrophic flooding like occurred for Hurricane Irene. However, it is quite possible that the axis of heaviest rains will shift northwards from this forecast. I expect that river flooding from Sandy will cause less than $1 billion in damage.

Links
To find out if you need to evacuate, please contact your local emergency management office. They will have the latest information. People living in New York City can find their evacuation zone here or use this map. FEMA has information on preparing for hurricanes.

People with disabilities and caregivers seeking information on accessible shelter and transportation can contact portlight.org

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Late Season Tropical Storms that have affected the U.S. north of Hatteras. He also has a post, Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook for New York City.

Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation.
Five-minute video of Hurricane Sandy on Thursday as seen from the International Space Station.

I'll probably leave this post up until late morning Sunday, unless there are some significant changes to report.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Sandy Sea Foam - Marineland FL (Talkingrock)
The amount of sea foam generated by the high sustained winds is impressive as Hurricane Sandy floods the beach at Marineland Florida. You can see the palms in the background straining against the wind.
Hurricane Sandy Sea Foam - Marineland FL
Ormond Beach, Florida (kimshot)
Hurricaine Sandy
Ormond Beach, Florida
Deerfield Beach Fl. Sandy remnants (KFLWESTBOCA)
West coast style waves
Deerfield Beach Fl. Sandy remnants

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 595 - 545

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30Blog Index

595. 900MB
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


New York's next big one is coming. It might not be this one, it might not be for another 50 years or more. But it's coming, and when it does, it'll be a long time before anybody plays down a storm again.


He's made that mistake before with a blizzard here 4 years ago. He didn't suspen parking rules, and I was the only ahole to dig out my car to move it. I got a ticket in another spot I couldnt dig it out of in time. Ticket was dismissed and Bloomie got a beating from the media. He was actually in Bermuda at another one of his homes for the weekend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Extrapolated 959 mbs.



URNT15 KWBC 272306
NOAA2 1718A SANDY HDOB 20 20121027
225700 3024N 07506W 6445 03488 9635 +101 +089 357016 016 026 003 00
225730 3024N 07504W 6438 03494 9628 +103 +088 006014 015 024 003 00
225800 3024N 07501W 6442 03486 9624 +105 +081 012010 011 021 003 03
225830 3024N 07459W 6439 03491 9621 +107 +079 034005 008 021 001 00
225900 3023N 07456W 6438 03487 9620 +106 +082 101004 004 021 000 03
225930 3023N 07454W 6439 03486 9616 +107 +095 111003 003 021 002 00
230000 3023N 07451W 6443 03480 9608 +112 +095 164004 006 023 002 00
230030 3023N 07449W 6441 03482 9613 +109 +096 178007 009 022 002 00
230100 3023N 07446W 6436 03488 9607 +113 +097 182008 009 022 001 00
230130 3023N 07444W 6440 03484 9598 +123 +075 181013 016 023 001 00
230200 3023N 07441W 6437 03487 9592 +127 +067 172013 014 025 000 00
230230 3023N 07439W 6442 03481 9587 +133 +062 179014 016 025 001 00
230300 3023N 07436W 6439 03484 9595 +125 +065 173017 018 026 001 00
230330 3023N 07434W 6441 03483 9605 +115 +093 174021 023 027 000 00
230400 3023N 07431W 6441 03484 9613 +109 +095 182026 026 029 002 00
230430 3024N 07429W 6438 03489 9613 +112 +088 182028 029 033 001 00
230500 3024N 07426W 6443 03486 9616 +111 +081 188030 031 033 003 00
230530 3024N 07424W 6445 03485 9614 +114 +077 190033 034 034 001 00
230600 3024N 07421W 6442 03489 9617 +114 +069 186034 034 035 001 00
230630 3024N 07419W 6441 03490 9620 +112 +071 189034 035 036 001 00

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's curious that should Sandy come ashore below 950 mb, most barometers made for home use -- including the one on my wall -- would be at the very bottom of the scale.
It's like the manufacturers never expected their instruments to see such low pressures.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
First band of tropical storm-force sustained winds is about to move through my area and Wilmington.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 900MB:
Cantore calling out Bloomberg as we speak. Really Bloomberg? School day on Monday, work day on Monday, eh, 80 mph winds and the subway and downtown flooded, no problem!
He must think he got burned when Irene did not impact NYC as much as predicted last year. But he needs to get over it and deal with reality. The city should shut down on Monday to keep people safe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
590. bwat
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


New York's next big one is coming. It might not be this one, it might not be for another 50 years or more. But it's coming, and when it does, it'll be a long time before anybody plays down a storm again.
Murphy's law......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bwat:
"Hello Mr. Bloomberg, this is Sandy calling with your 80 year wake up call......"


New York's next big one is coming. It might not be this one, it might not be for another 50 years or more. But it's coming, and when it does, it'll be a long time before anybody plays down a storm again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Seems that the "Irene event," of last year was a toned down dress rehersal for whats going to be the "Sandy event."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see many quotes of Bloomberg but what were the exact words that Major Bloomberg said?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
586. bwat
Quoting 900MB:
Cantore calling out Bloomberg as we speak. Really Bloomberg? School day on Monday, work day on Monday, eh, 80 mph winds and the subway and downtown flooded, no problem!
"Hello Mr. Bloomberg, this is Sandy calling with your 80 year wake up call......"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sandy has some very intense 850 millibar winds. The purple wind barbs indicate 60-65 knot winds, the blue/purple-ish wind barbs indicate 70-75 knot winds, and the light blue wind barbs indicate 80-85 knot winds. Recon hasn't investigated that area off the South Carolina coastline for some reason, but I really believe they should.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
582. 900MB
Cantore calling out Bloomberg as we speak. Really Bloomberg? School day on Monday, work day on Monday, eh, 80 mph winds and the subway and downtown flooded, no problem!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Slamguitar:


that model makes sandy impact right over nyc
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Slamguitar:

Right in the sweet spot..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
578. bwat
Quoting ncstorm:


Amazing.....even though we here aren't going to get anything hurricane force, we are looking at tropical storm force winds from now, until early Tuesday morning at the earliest! That's over 48 hours of winds between 40-55, maybe gusting to 60 mph! Also with it coming out of the north it is going to blow a lot of water out of the river down by me. If conditions permit, I will take some pics of that and post for you folks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wind gusts

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Here we go again.


What is it doing again?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The temperature inside the center of Sandy has dropped quite a bit from this morning, per recon. Seems like Sandy is really beginning to transition.

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,671m (12,044ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,664m (12,021ft)


I think it was 72 degrees inside the eye this morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Noting:- 560. Sfloridacat5
and
564. Sfloridacat5
1.
We do not know that the Darwin Awards candidate had a surfboard at this stage.
and
2.Why is the yong lady wearing a piece of blue rope attached to her left ankle? Is this to help recover her if she should inadvertantly drowned?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here we go again.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 98E is looking decent. It may actually become a named storm in the East Pacific.



WHXX01 KMIA 272251
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2251 UTC SAT OCT 27 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982012) 20121027 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
121027 1800 121028 0600 121028 1800 121029 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.8N 109.6W 11.5N 111.2W 12.4N 112.5W 13.7N 113.6W
BAMD 10.8N 109.6W 11.4N 110.9W 12.1N 112.3W 12.7N 113.6W
BAMM 10.8N 109.6W 11.3N 111.0W 11.9N 112.3W 12.6N 113.4W
LBAR 10.8N 109.6W 11.4N 110.6W 12.2N 111.7W 13.1N 112.9W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 36KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 36KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
121029 1800 121030 1800 121031 1800 121101 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 114.5W 16.3N 117.0W 17.0N 119.7W 17.1N 121.7W
BAMD 13.1N 114.4W 13.4N 116.0W 13.4N 117.5W 13.2N 118.5W
BAMM 13.1N 114.3W 13.6N 116.1W 13.9N 117.9W 13.8N 119.2W
LBAR 14.2N 113.7W 16.3N 114.1W 19.2N 110.8W 22.8N 105.3W
SHIP 47KTS 49KTS 45KTS 42KTS
DSHP 47KTS 49KTS 45KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 109.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 108.2W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 106.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56089
567. 900MB
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Not a hurricane or tropical storm type surge. Just the surge that one would typically associate with the largest Atlantic tropical cyclone in recorded history. Shouldn't be too bad.


Kind of bizarre on Bloomie's part. He underreacted to a blizzard a few years ago, has overracted to every storm since, but I think he is reverting to old ways.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
566. bwat
Sandy is absolutely blowing my mind.(no pun intended) I'm in NE NC and I remember when Earl made its closest approach to Hatteras, we did not experience the winds that we are experiencing right now with Sandy, and the storm is more than 4 times further away at the moment than Earl was at its closest point. Simply amazing the size of the wind-field.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Not a hurricane or tropical storm type surge. Just the surge that one would typically associate with the largest Atlantic tropical cyclone in recorded history. Shouldn't be too bad.


Can someone provide more detail on the type of data his advisors used to arrive at this conclusion? This just seems odd. Also I don't understand why they don't push that people should consider optional evacuation from the higher risk areas
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting will40:


NHC track splits it right in the middle between the two

Delaware Bay?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
It's hard to imagine a single person that could miss the state and local states of emergencies, the hysteria of their neighbors rushing for supplies....and yet be aware of the NHC warning system, and what it means.


ok?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting 900MB:
Watching Bloomberg news conference. Very calm, e seems to think this will not be as bad as Irene 'not a hurricane or tropical storm- type surge'.


Not a hurricane or tropical storm type surge. Just the surge that one would typically associate with the largest Atlantic tropical cyclone in recorded history. Shouldn't be too bad.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




and not whereing a lifejacket


You definately don't want to wear a life jacket when surfing. When surfing you want to be able to duck dive under the waves. That keeps you from getting slammed by the approaching waves.
A good surfer can duck dive under large waves and come up on the other side while still laying on the board.

But we have no idea the skill level of the surfer. But most surfers would stay out of the water due to the rough and disorganized surf. It's not that the surf is too big, its just very disorganized.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56089
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
The NHC is doing this warning thing wrong. Hurricane warnings should be up and if the storm becomes post-propical they can be discontinued and replaced with high wind warnings and flood warnings or something like that
It's hard to imagine a single person that could miss the state and local states of emergencies, the hysteria of their neighbors rushing for supplies....and yet be aware of the NHC warning system, and what it means.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey, I was just thinking about this storm, and like, whoa man, unreal.

It truly is a historic storm, especially due to its size near election time.
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
Quoting RussianWinter:

For those who think there should be a hurricane warning... what about this graph?


??? what?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
555. 900MB
Watching Bloomberg news conference. Very calm, e seems to think this will not be as bad as Irene 'not a hurricane or tropical storm- type surge'. Guess he isnt reading WU. Seems to think it is heading south, not understanding that the north side of the storm is the dangerous side. Wishing it away?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For those who think there should be a hurricane warning... what about this graph?
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
Invest 98E is looking decent. It may actually become a named storm in the East Pacific.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


well...one of the reasons money is there for...
that is not a valid court excuse.



right now the way they put it it is what it is and nothing we can do about it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


I tell ya Wash..how stupid is that of him and of course someone has to go out there and rescue him..

((Collect the body!))
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


LOL..then he should drink a icey real fast..that will give him a rush but jumping from the pier during a hurricane..LAWD!!!
Probably saw the T.V crews there and did a stunt for attention.Well I hope he's happy.They should arrest him for it after when he gets rescued.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



that takes a lot of hard work too do they would have too call all the NWS that's in the path of this storm and tell them they are going too discontinued the hhurricane warnings then the NWS would have too think fast too re place the hurricane warning with high wind warnings and that takes a lot of time and be for then the storm would all most or all ready be on land and would be too late too do any thing then that's why they are doing high wind watch or warings now then having to do all of that later if sandy be comes post propical


well...one of the reasons money is there for...
that is not a valid court excuse.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
A special advisory should be up from NHC giving the new hurricane watches and warnings for the Mid-Atlantic and New England...they better not do this at the last minute or not do it at all




there wont be A special advisory
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
The NHC is doing this warning thing wrong. Hurricane warnings should be up and if the storm becomes post-propical they can be discontinued and replaced with high wind warnings and flood warnings or something like that



that takes a lot of hard work too do they would have too call all the NWS that's in the path of this storm and tell them they are going too discontinued the hhurricane warnings then the NWS would have too think fast too re place the hurricane warning with high wind warnings and that takes a lot of time and be for then the storm would all most or all ready be on land and would be too late too do any thing then that's why they are doing high wind watch or warings now then having to do all of that later if sandy be comes post propical
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A special advisory should be up from NHC giving the new hurricane watches and warnings for the Mid-Atlantic and New England...they better not do this at the last minute or not do it at all
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873

Viewing: 595 - 545

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
35 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron