Sandy likely to be a multi-billion dollar disaster for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on October 27, 2012

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Hurricane Sandy is holding its own against high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and has regained its Category 1 strength after falling to tropical storm strength early this morning. Sandy is a massive storm, with tropical storm-force winds that span a 660-mile diameter area of ocean from a point even with central Florida northwards to a point off the central North Carolina coast. Twelve-foot high seas cover a diameter of ocean 1,000 miles across. A buoy 150 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida reported sustained winds of 63 mph, gusting to 76 mph, at 9:43 am EDT. Another buoy about 100 miles east of the coast of Georgia reported sustained winds of 69 mph at 11:52 am EDT. Due to the high wind shear and interaction with a trough of low pressure to Sandy's west, the storm has a rather unusual structure, with the strongest winds on the southwest side of the center, but a larger area of tropical storm-force winds to the northeast of the center. Satellite loops show that the low-level center of Sandy is partially exposed to view, with a small clump of heavy thunderstorms near the center. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity is on the storm's west side, in a thick band several hundred miles removed from the center, giving Sandy more the appearance of a subtropical storm rather than a hurricane.


Figure 1. Early afternoon satellite image of Sandy.

Sandy's death toll at 48
Sandy was a brutal storm for the Caribbean, with a total death toll that now stands at 48. The death toll is highest in Haiti, with 34 dead. The toll will likely rise as remote areas cut off from communications are reached. Cuban state media is reporting that eleven people were killed on Cuba, and damage was heavy, with 35,000 homes damaged or destroyed. Cuba is probably the most hurricane-prepared nation in the world, and it is unusual for them to experience such a high death toll in a hurricane. Sandy was Cuba's deadliest hurricane since Category 4 Hurricane Dennis killed sixteen people in 2005. Sandy is also being blamed for 1 death in Jamaica, 1 in the Bahamas, and 1 in Puerto Rico.

Forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is expected to remain a high 30 - 40 knots for the next two days, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure to its west. The high shear should keep Sandy from intensifying the way most hurricanes do--by pulling heat energy out of the ocean. However, a trough of low pressure approaching from the west will inject "baroclinic" energy--the energy one can derive from the atmosphere when warm and cold air masses lie in close proximity to each other. Sandy's drop in central pressure from 969 mb at 5 am to 960 mb at 8 am this morning may be due, in part, to some baroclinic energy helping intensify the storm. This sort of effect helps spread out the storm's strong winds over a wider area of ocean; Sandy's diameter of tropical storm-force winds are predicted to expand from 660 miles to 760 miles by Sunday afternoon. This will increase the total amount of wind energy of the storm, keeping the storm surge threat very high. This morning's 9:30 am EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.3 on a scale of 0 to 6, However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was exceptionally high: 5.2 on a scale of 0 to 6. Sandy's large wind field will drive a damaging storm surge of 3 - 6 feet to the right of where the center makes landfall. These storm surge heights will be among the highest ever recorded along the affected coasts, and will have the potential to cause billions of dollars in damage. The latest set of 00Z (8 pm EDT) and 06Z (2 am EDT) computer model runs have come into better agreement on the timing and landfall location of Sandy. Our two top models, the ECMWF and GFS, both call for landfall between 10 pm Monday night and 4 am Tuesday morning, with the center coming ashore between Delaware and New York City.

A multi-billion dollar disaster likely in the U.S.
I expect Sandy's impacts along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England coasts to cost at least $2 billion in insured damage and lost business, and there is a danger the storm could cost much more. Steve Bowen, meteorologist for insurance broker AON Benfield, put it this way for me this morning: "Given the level of losses associated with Irene last year and the current projections of extended high wind, heavy rainfall, coastal surge and an inland flooding threat for many of the same areas with Sandy, it would not come as a complete surprise to see a multi-billion dollar economic loss." Sandy should bring sustained winds of 50 - 70 mph with gusts over hurricane force to a large section of coast. With most of the trees still in leaf, there will be widespread power outages due to downed trees, and the potential for a billion dollars in wind damage.


Figure 2. Storm surge from Tropical Storm Irene at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island on Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:48 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.13 feet. The storm tide--how high the water got when factoring in both the tide and the storm surge--peaked at 9.5' above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) at 8:42 am. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 3. Predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at The Battery on the south shore of Manhattan, New York City, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFS model, and predicts that the peak storm surge from Sandy will reach 5.5' on Monday night October 29, which is 1.4' higher than Irene's storm surge. This forecast has the peak surge occurring near high tide, bringing the maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--to 10.5', a foot higher than Irene. At this level, water will very likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. Notice: this is not an official NHC storm surge forecast, and the storm surge may be higher or lower than this, depending upon the strength, track, and timing of Sandy.

Sandy's storm surge may flood New York City's subway system, costing billions
Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 400 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its peak winds would ordinarily suggest. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be about 5% higher than typical, increasing the potential for damaging storm surge flooding. Fortunately, Sandy is now predicted to make a fairly rapid approach to the coast, meaning that the storm surge will not affect the coast for multiple high tide cycles. If Sandy hits near New York City, as the GFS model predicts, the storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. However, the town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to the storm surge, and fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. New York was not as lucky on December 12, 1992, when a 990 mb Nor'easter drove an 8-foot storm surge into Battery Park, flooding the NYC subway and the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) train systems in Hoboken New Jersey. FDR Drive in lower Manhattan was flooded with 4 feet of water, which stranded more than 50 cars and required scuba divers to rescue some of the drivers. Mass transit between New Jersey and New York was down for ten days, and the storm did hundreds of millions in damage to the city. The highest water level recorded at the Battery in the past century came in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, which brought a storm surge of 8.36 feet to the Battery and flooded lower Manhattan to West and Cortland Streets. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory, Sandy's storm surge may be higher than Irene's, and has the potential to flood New York City's subway system (Figure 4.) The amount of water will depend critically upon whether or not the peak storm surge arrives at high tide or not. If the peak surge arrives near Monday evening's high tide near 9 pm EDT, a portion of New York City's subway system could flood, resulting in billions of dollars in damage. I give a 30% chance that Sandy's storm surge will end up flooding a portion of the New York City subway system.

An excellent September 2012 article in the New York Times titled, "New York Is Lagging as Seas and Risks Rise, Critics Warn" quoted Dr. Klaus H. Jacob, a research scientist at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, on how lucky New York City got with Hurricane Irene. If the storm surge from Irene had been just one foot higher, "subway tunnels would have flooded, segments of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Drive and roads along the Hudson River would have turned into rivers, and sections of the commuter rail system would have been impassable or bereft of power," he said, and the subway tunnels under the Harlem and East Rivers would have been unusable for nearly a month, or longer, at an economic loss of about $55 billion. Dr. Jacob is an adviser to the city on climate change, and an author of the 2011 state study that laid out the flooding prospects. “We’ve been extremely lucky,” he said. “I’m disappointed that the political process hasn’t recognized that we’re playing Russian roulette.” A substantial portion of New York City's electrical system is underground in flood-prone areas. Consolidated Edison, the utility that supplies electricity to most of the city, estimates that adaptations like installing submersible switches and moving high-voltage transformers above ground level would cost at least $250 million. Lacking the means, it is making gradual adjustments, with about $24 million spent in flood zones since 2007. At a conference I attended this summer in Hoboken on natural hazards on urban coasts, I talked to an official with Consolidated Edison, who was responsible for turning off Lower Manhattan's power if a storm surge floods the subway system. He said that he was ready to throw the switch during Irene, but was glad it turned out not to be needed.


Figure 4. Predicted 5-day rainfall for the period ending Thursday morning, November 1, 2012, at 8am EDT. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 5. Actual rainfall for 2011's Hurricane Irene, which caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. Sandy's rains are predicted to be about 20% less than Irene's. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.



Figure 6. Top: Current soil moisture profiles over the mid-Atlantic show mostly near-average amounts of moisture, with some dry areas in the lowest 30th percentile in recorded history over much of Delaware and Southeastern Maryland. In contrast, soil moisture profiles just before Hurricane Irene arrived, on August 24, 2011 (bottom) ranked in the top 1% in recorded history (dark green colors) over portions of NJ, PA, and NY. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.


Figure 7. A comparison of river levels just before Hurricane Sandy's arrival (left) and just before Hurricane Irene of 2011 (right) shows that river levels were much higher in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast prior to the arrival of Irene. The area of highest concern for river flooding for Sandy is eastern Pennsylvania, where river levels are in the 76 - 90th percentile, and soil moisture is in the 70th percentile. Image credit: USGS.

Sandy's rains
Sandy is expected to dump 5 - 10 inches of rain along the coast near the point the center comes ashore, and 3 - 4 inches several hundred miles inland. Higher isolated rainfall amounts of fifteen inches are likely. Rains of this magnitude are going to cause trouble. If we compare the predicted rainfall amounts for Sandy (Figure 4) with those from Hurricane Irene of 2011 (Figure 5), Sandy's are expected to be about 20% less. Hurricane Irene caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. However, the region most heavily impacted by Irene's heavy rains had very wet soils and very high river levels before Irene arrived, due to heavy rains that occurred in the weeks before the hurricane hit. That is not the case for Sandy; soil moisture is near average over most of the mid-Atlantic, and is in the lowest 30th percentile in recorded history over much of Delaware and Southeastern Maryland (Figure 6.) One region of possible concern is the Susquehanna River Valley in Eastern Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is in the 70th percentile, and river levels are in the 76th - 90th percentile. This area is currently expected to receive 2 - 4 inches of rain (Figure 4), which is not enough to cause catastrophic flooding like occurred for Hurricane Irene. However, it is quite possible that the axis of heaviest rains will shift northwards from this forecast. I expect that river flooding from Sandy will cause less than $1 billion in damage.

Links
To find out if you need to evacuate, please contact your local emergency management office. They will have the latest information. People living in New York City can find their evacuation zone here or use this map. FEMA has information on preparing for hurricanes.

People with disabilities and caregivers seeking information on accessible shelter and transportation can contact portlight.org

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Late Season Tropical Storms that have affected the U.S. north of Hatteras. He also has a post, Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook for New York City.

Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation.
Five-minute video of Hurricane Sandy on Thursday as seen from the International Space Station.

I'll probably leave this post up until late morning Sunday, unless there are some significant changes to report.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Sandy Sea Foam - Marineland FL (Talkingrock)
The amount of sea foam generated by the high sustained winds is impressive as Hurricane Sandy floods the beach at Marineland Florida. You can see the palms in the background straining against the wind.
Hurricane Sandy Sea Foam - Marineland FL
Ormond Beach, Florida (kimshot)
Hurricaine Sandy
Ormond Beach, Florida
Deerfield Beach Fl. Sandy remnants (KFLWESTBOCA)
West coast style waves
Deerfield Beach Fl. Sandy remnants

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000
WTNT43 KNHC 280246
TCDAT3

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
SANDY HAS INCREASED DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...DATA FROM AIR
FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION AT 10000-12000 FT IS STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN INNER WIND MAXIMUM NEAR THE CONVECTION.

HOWEVER...THIS HAS NOT YET RESULTED IN ANY INTENSIFICATION...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 65 KT. THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED
PRESSURE IS ABOUT 960 MB.

SANDY HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 040/12. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE
IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. SANDY IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...
STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. AFTER THAT...A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHEASTERN CANADA AND INTERACTION WITH THE U. S. TROUGH SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...NORTHWEST...AND
EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER
INLAND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS. AFTER
LANDFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE U. S. TROUGH TO FORM
A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE AREA...WITH THE RESULTING SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT
TRACK...BOTH BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND BECAUSE THE
IMPACTS ARE GOING TO COVER SUCH A LARGE AREA AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

SANDY REMAINS IN AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE CAUSED BY
A TROUGH TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE
HURRICANE DESPITE SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WHILE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR 36 HOURS...
THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY
THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE DURING THIS TIME...AND IF THAT HAPPENS
SANDY COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
AFTER 36
HOURS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL FORECAST THAT INTERACTION WITH THE
U. S. TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE SOME INTENSIFICATION ALONG WITH
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE COMPLETE BY 48
HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS TRANSITION WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON THE SIZE AND IMPACTS OF THIS LARGE AND VIGOROUS SYSTEM.
AFTER LANDFALL...THE FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO
STEADILY WEAKEN.

AS ALSO NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN ORDER TO AVOID THE RISK
OF A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL
WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH
OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED
THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 30.9N 74.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 32.2N 72.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 34.1N 71.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 36.3N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 38.7N 72.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/0000Z 40.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/0000Z 43.5N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/0000Z 47.5N 75.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
000
WTNT33 KNHC 280245
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SANDY CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
...STRONG WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 74.3W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...ALONG WITH
OTHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEE STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF
SANDY WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND APPROACH THE COAST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL
CYCLONE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520
MILES
...835 KM. NOAA BUOY 41036...LOCATED IN ONSLOW BAY NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
45 MPH...73 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH...97 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...AND THESE
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY AND REACH
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS TO
NEAR HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBERMARLE SNDS...3 TO 5 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND DELAWARE BAY...4 TO 8 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING.
IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO NEW
ENGLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
Quoting MZT:

Yes it was really quite a nice day in central NC, if a bit overcast. I went for a hike up Crowder's mountain (near Gastonia).


And it will end with a few inches of wet snow here. Kind of appropriate. Something for everyone.
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Quoting Maryland1:


NC 12 getting overwashed is just the way it is. One day, Hatteras Island will be a boat in community. In our lifetime. Ocean City, MD has spent years on beach enhancement, fighting the fact they bulldozed the dunes in the 70's. This storm will do some major damage down there, even on the south side.


Hmmmm :/ def one of the big problems with waterfront homes being in demand. There goes natural defences. Manmade sea defenses never seem to work properly one way or another
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Prepared here in Baltimore :-)

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50,000: number of people in Delaware ordered to evacuate.

9: number of U.S. governors who have declared states of emergency.

44: number of Sandy-related deaths tallied so far in Haiti.

200,000: number of homeless in Haiti due to the passage of Sandy.

960 mb: Sandy's current barometric pressure.

450: radius in nautical miles of Sandy's tropical storm-force winds. (For visualization purposes: if the storm were perfectly symmetrical and its center made landfall in Cape May, NJ, winds of tropical storm strength would be felt from Charleston, SC, northward to Kennebunkport, ME.)

7 - 10: the number of days many people in parts of the Northeast may be without power.

65,000,000: approximate number of people who are likely to be directly affected by Sandy (roughly 20% of the U.S. population).
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NAM 00Z 72 HRS LANDFALL

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887. MZT
Quoting Maryland1:
Went for a walk on the Piedmont. We have a huge, beautiful ring around the moon.

Yes it was really quite a nice day in central NC, if a bit overcast. I went for a hike up Crowder's mountain (near Gastonia).
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just a little humor to reduce the stress and tension...

@wxbrad

We all know if #Sandy was bringing 9' of Mt Dew instead of ocean water Bloomberg would be evacuating all of #NYC


ROFL
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Stu Ostro Facebook

The first of countless trees that will be blown down by Sandy ... These reports are from eastern NC, very far from the center of circulation which is well offshore, and indicative of the size and potency of of the storm …

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
913 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

0851 PM TROPICAL STORM 1 ESE SANDY CREEK
10/27/2012 BRUNSWICK NC EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE BLOWN DOWN ON ROAD... NC HWY 87 AT SANDY RUN DRIVE

0424 PM TROPICAL STORM 2 E BOLIVIA
10/27/2012 BRUNSWICK NC EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN BLOCKING ONE LANE OF DANFORTH ROAD.

0125 PM TROPICAL STORM 2 N WILMINGTON
10/27/2012 NEW HANOVER NC 911 CALL CENTER

TREE DOWN ON COLONIAL DRIVE REMOVED BY ROAD CREW
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Quoting AussieStorm:
James Spann  ‏@spann
Totally agree “@JimCantore: I am very concerned about Mayor @MikeBloomberg decision on No evacuations. #Sandy”

...maybe he figures they're Democrats (just joking)
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NAM 00Z 60 HRS

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Quoting pcola57:


35 or 40 less than this mitthbevnuruodo?



Can't see the pic! Though from what it shows on the quote, nearly...is about 35' at mine. they had grit on the roads on my way home...though it just washing away in the rain now anyway LOL That's very cool for there though under hurricane bands!?
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Was just looking at the webcams for some areas along there...can even see the big waves at night in some of them :O


NC 12 getting overwashed is just the way it is. One day, Hatteras Island will be a boat in community. In our lifetime. Ocean City, MD has spent years on beach enhancement, fighting the fact they bulldozed the dunes in the 70's. This storm will do some major damage down there, even on the south side.
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NAM 00Z 51 HRS LANDFALL

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Goodnight Guys..its been a long day..we are supposed to start feeling the worst of the winds through the overnight period into tomorrow..before Sandy gets to NY, she has to go through SC, NC, VA, DC, DE, MD, PA and NJ..a whole bunch of real estate with a whole bunch of people living there..stay safe!!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16899
Just a little humor to reduce the stress and tension...

@wxbrad

We all know if #Sandy was bringing 9' of Mt Dew instead of ocean water Bloomberg would be evacuating all of #NYC
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Quoting AussieStorm:

It was a tweet. I'll try to find info for you.



Brad Panovich @wxbrad
2 areas of over wash on HWY 12 on the #OBX being reported now. Near Nags Head & Rodanthe


I hope this helps....

Link

More than that now.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34206
I'm on the peninsula in Hampton Roads (Norfolk area), we're getting some steady winds and rain, the Back River is starting to flood close by yards and low areas down at Messick Point. Tomorrow morning's high tide (9:29am local) should prove interesting. I'm guessing we'll actually see 2-3' of water around the houses here at that time and for the next 36 hours after as the tides shift in and out.

I've been to NYC, met a lot of good people. I hope they are ready for this and it's not as bad as the worst case scenarios are predicting.
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NAM 00Z 36HR TO 60 HR

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NAM 00Z 12HR TO 60 HR

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Quoting AussieStorm:

It was a tweet. I'll try to find info for you.



Brad Panovich ‏@wxbrad
2 areas of over wash on HWY 12 on the #OBX being reported now. Near Nags Head & Rodanthe


Was just looking at the webcams for some areas along there...can even see the big waves at night in some of them :O
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Just want to remind you lot, that this is a Summer Hurricane blog, not politics, not global warming. Leave the pollys out of it and do your global warming stuff in the winter.

We have lives in the balance here and you are freaking bickering about stuff that won't matter in the long run when people are dead from the storm at hand.
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Who needs a Fl or SC landfall when they're getting the full brunt as it is! Geesh! Is about the same weather here right now in N Wales, except probably 35 or 40' colder LOL


35 or 40 less than this mitthbevnuruodo?

Edit:sorry image didn't make it..will try again..
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Convection fully covers the city.



What city?
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The intrusion and rejection of dry air...

WV Loop

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Quoting CloudGatherer:
Let me be perfectly clear. New York City isn't below sea level. There's no bathtub that'll flood and fill when levees are breached. If there's disorder, there are 34,500 cops in NYC, as compared to 1,400 in New Orleans. The case of New Orleans has almost no bearing on the present situation.


Your are correct. Bloomberg should have been more concerned, but apples aren't oranges. And Jimmy is a midget who took some steroids to get bigger.
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Quoting Maryland1:


Aussie: Please link that, I have people down there.

It was a tweet. I'll try to find info for you.



Brad Panovich @wxbrad
2 areas of over wash on HWY 12 on the #OBX being reported now. Near Nags Head & Rodanthe


I hope this helps....

Link
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Quoting mfaria101:
The scary thing about bloombergs statements from a new jersey perspective is the time it takes to commute in to the city from here where a LOT of people who work in NYC live. if he pulls the plug on monday too late a lot of people are going to be stranded in the city while mass transit shuts down and the streets become unhealthy. its a bad call on his part and one i'll be he changes before monday rolls around
Don't confuse his words with his actions. If the storm remains on its present track, the city will shut down all mass transit, beginning at 7pm on Sunday, to avert precisely the scenario you describe. There's no actual need to close it down that early - they just want to make sure that no one comes into the city via transit on Monday morning who's counting on getting back home.

The press conference is aimed at keeping the public calm. But it doesn't mean the city isn't preparing.
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
Quoting AussieStorm:
James Spann  ‏@spann
Totally agree “@JimCantore: I am very concerned about Mayor @MikeBloomberg decision on No evacuations. #Sandy”


so glad that James Spann is a weatherman here in AL! he is awesome and do whatever it takes to get the word out.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Who needs a Fl or SC landfall when they're getting the full brunt as it is! Geesh! Is about the same weather here right now in N Wales, except probably 35 or 40' colder LOL
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It does seem odd that the Mid-Atlantic is the only place not displaying a hurricane statement (local or otherwise) on the East Coast.

Is that artifact?

http://www.wunderground.com/severe.asp










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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


A LA mayor wished he had evacuated his people from a city (~5,000 people) by New Orleans that got flooded from Isaac. He admitted that was a terrible mistake that killed people.
What does that tell you about Bloomer's decision and here we are taking about nearly 10,000,000 people..

sorry to bring this up again but it applies to it anyway.... The Italian court....
Let me be perfectly clear. New York City isn't below sea level. There's no bathtub that'll flood and fill when levees are breached. If there's disorder, there are 34,500 cops in NYC, as compared to 1,400 in New Orleans. The case of New Orleans has almost no bearing on the present situation.
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
Regardless of mayoral politicking or, cold clinical city management (whatever it was meant to be or, will be passed off as) and my Brit attitude to being labelled - I wish safety and security to all in NYC and the rest of the areas, up and down the Eastern Seaboard, that may be impacted by Sandy.

Just ensure that "you and yours" are safe! Do what YOU think is necessary.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
James Spann  ‏@spann
Totally agree “@JimCantore: I am very concerned about Mayor @MikeBloomberg decision on No evacuations. #Sandy”


Jim Cantore is adding fuel to the fire..he needs to stop and stick to forecasting the weather and leave the emergency management to the officals..TWC got a lot to lose if they are overhyping the damage for NY..the storm hasnt even turned west for goodness sake..Im sure there are shelters or will be shelters open in NY for those who need it..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16899
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


A LA mayor wished he had evacuated his people from a city (~5,000 people) by New Orleans that got flooded from Isaac. He admitted that was a terrible mistake that killed people.
What does that tell you about Bloomer's decision and here we are taking about nearly 10,000,000 people..

sorry to bring this up again but it applies to it anyway.... The Italian court....


Haven't heard anything on that pending prosecution...
It may be settled and I'm not aware of it but that would be set a precedence that is ridicules IMO..

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The scary thing about bloombergs statements from a new jersey perspective is the time it takes to commute in to the city from here where a LOT of people who work in NYC live. if he pulls the plug on monday too late a lot of people are going to be stranded in the city while mass transit shuts down and the streets become unhealthy. its a bad call on his part and one i'll be he changes before monday rolls around
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Rain is beginning to pile up for Coastal North Carolina:



And check out the precipitation bands on Jacksonville radar:

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All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for HurricaneSandy @ 28Oct.12am

HNC-CapeHatteras :: MYR-MyrtleBeach :: GGE-Georgetown :: MHH-GreatAbaco

The southernmost dot on the longest line is H.Sandy's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through H.Sandy's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to an inhabited coastline
27Oct.12am: H.Sandy had been headed for passage over MyrtleBeach (right,MYRblob)
27Oct.06am: H.Sandy had been headed for passage 102miles(165kilometres)ESEast of CapeHatteras (right,HNCdumbell,outside)
27Oct.12pm: H.Sandy had been headed for passage 100miles(162kilometres)ESEast of CapeHatteras
(right,HNCdumbell,inside)
27Oct.06pm: H.Sandy had been headed for passage 244miles(393kilometres)SEast of CapeHatteras (unconnected, unlabled dot above the straightline)
28Oct.12am: H.Sandy had been heading for passage 274miles(441kilometres)SEast of CapeHatteras

Click this link to the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map with more info
And the previous mapping for comparison
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Water level at Ocean City inlet now 1.5 feet above mean high tide level.


Aussie: Please link that, I have people down there.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


All I will say.. If people had storm surge flooding from Irene, they should evac for Sandy.
Which is perfectly sensible.

But we should differentiate between what people should do, and what the mayor should be saying. His keep calm and carry on shtick is carefully calculated, and in no way prevents people from taking steps to protect themselves.

New York City isn't New Orleans. If the flood walls by the Battery are overtopped - and I think it's likely they will be - there are no instantly catastrophic consequences. It'd take something like a worst-case scenario to start taking down the power grid, steam lines, and subways in the lower part of the city. If that happens, there's still little direct risk to residents. (We're talking about tall buildings. When the water rises past the first floor, you walk up to the second - or the fifty-second.) It'll be possible to reach those areas and evacuate them in an orderly fashion, and there are plans to do so.

The real risk is to the rest of us. If there's a significant disruption to the financial district, and massive damage, we'll all be paying it in insurance premiums for the enormous payouts, and in slower growth from disrupted markets and grumpy bankers.
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
Convection fully covers the center.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34206
Water level at Ocean City inlet now 1.5 feet above mean high tide level.
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Went for a walk on the Piedmont. We have a huge, beautiful ring around the moon. Shows on, both in country meterology and schooled. Thanks to all here for their guidance.
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James Spann  ‏@spann
Totally agree “@JimCantore: I am very concerned about Mayor @MikeBloomberg decision on No evacuations. #Sandy”
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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