Sandy likely to be a multi-billion dollar disaster for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on October 27, 2012

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Hurricane Sandy is holding its own against high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and has regained its Category 1 strength after falling to tropical storm strength early this morning. Sandy is a massive storm, with tropical storm-force winds that span a 660-mile diameter area of ocean from a point even with central Florida northwards to a point off the central North Carolina coast. Twelve-foot high seas cover a diameter of ocean 1,000 miles across. A buoy 150 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida reported sustained winds of 63 mph, gusting to 76 mph, at 9:43 am EDT. Another buoy about 100 miles east of the coast of Georgia reported sustained winds of 69 mph at 11:52 am EDT. Due to the high wind shear and interaction with a trough of low pressure to Sandy's west, the storm has a rather unusual structure, with the strongest winds on the southwest side of the center, but a larger area of tropical storm-force winds to the northeast of the center. Satellite loops show that the low-level center of Sandy is partially exposed to view, with a small clump of heavy thunderstorms near the center. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity is on the storm's west side, in a thick band several hundred miles removed from the center, giving Sandy more the appearance of a subtropical storm rather than a hurricane.


Figure 1. Early afternoon satellite image of Sandy.

Sandy's death toll at 48
Sandy was a brutal storm for the Caribbean, with a total death toll that now stands at 48. The death toll is highest in Haiti, with 34 dead. The toll will likely rise as remote areas cut off from communications are reached. Cuban state media is reporting that eleven people were killed on Cuba, and damage was heavy, with 35,000 homes damaged or destroyed. Cuba is probably the most hurricane-prepared nation in the world, and it is unusual for them to experience such a high death toll in a hurricane. Sandy was Cuba's deadliest hurricane since Category 4 Hurricane Dennis killed sixteen people in 2005. Sandy is also being blamed for 1 death in Jamaica, 1 in the Bahamas, and 1 in Puerto Rico.

Forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is expected to remain a high 30 - 40 knots for the next two days, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure to its west. The high shear should keep Sandy from intensifying the way most hurricanes do--by pulling heat energy out of the ocean. However, a trough of low pressure approaching from the west will inject "baroclinic" energy--the energy one can derive from the atmosphere when warm and cold air masses lie in close proximity to each other. Sandy's drop in central pressure from 969 mb at 5 am to 960 mb at 8 am this morning may be due, in part, to some baroclinic energy helping intensify the storm. This sort of effect helps spread out the storm's strong winds over a wider area of ocean; Sandy's diameter of tropical storm-force winds are predicted to expand from 660 miles to 760 miles by Sunday afternoon. This will increase the total amount of wind energy of the storm, keeping the storm surge threat very high. This morning's 9:30 am EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.3 on a scale of 0 to 6, However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was exceptionally high: 5.2 on a scale of 0 to 6. Sandy's large wind field will drive a damaging storm surge of 3 - 6 feet to the right of where the center makes landfall. These storm surge heights will be among the highest ever recorded along the affected coasts, and will have the potential to cause billions of dollars in damage. The latest set of 00Z (8 pm EDT) and 06Z (2 am EDT) computer model runs have come into better agreement on the timing and landfall location of Sandy. Our two top models, the ECMWF and GFS, both call for landfall between 10 pm Monday night and 4 am Tuesday morning, with the center coming ashore between Delaware and New York City.

A multi-billion dollar disaster likely in the U.S.
I expect Sandy's impacts along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England coasts to cost at least $2 billion in insured damage and lost business, and there is a danger the storm could cost much more. Steve Bowen, meteorologist for insurance broker AON Benfield, put it this way for me this morning: "Given the level of losses associated with Irene last year and the current projections of extended high wind, heavy rainfall, coastal surge and an inland flooding threat for many of the same areas with Sandy, it would not come as a complete surprise to see a multi-billion dollar economic loss." Sandy should bring sustained winds of 50 - 70 mph with gusts over hurricane force to a large section of coast. With most of the trees still in leaf, there will be widespread power outages due to downed trees, and the potential for a billion dollars in wind damage.


Figure 2. Storm surge from Tropical Storm Irene at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island on Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:48 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.13 feet. The storm tide--how high the water got when factoring in both the tide and the storm surge--peaked at 9.5' above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) at 8:42 am. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 3. Predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at The Battery on the south shore of Manhattan, New York City, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFS model, and predicts that the peak storm surge from Sandy will reach 5.5' on Monday night October 29, which is 1.4' higher than Irene's storm surge. This forecast has the peak surge occurring near high tide, bringing the maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--to 10.5', a foot higher than Irene. At this level, water will very likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. Notice: this is not an official NHC storm surge forecast, and the storm surge may be higher or lower than this, depending upon the strength, track, and timing of Sandy.

Sandy's storm surge may flood New York City's subway system, costing billions
Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 400 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its peak winds would ordinarily suggest. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be about 5% higher than typical, increasing the potential for damaging storm surge flooding. Fortunately, Sandy is now predicted to make a fairly rapid approach to the coast, meaning that the storm surge will not affect the coast for multiple high tide cycles. If Sandy hits near New York City, as the GFS model predicts, the storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. However, the town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to the storm surge, and fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. New York was not as lucky on December 12, 1992, when a 990 mb Nor'easter drove an 8-foot storm surge into Battery Park, flooding the NYC subway and the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) train systems in Hoboken New Jersey. FDR Drive in lower Manhattan was flooded with 4 feet of water, which stranded more than 50 cars and required scuba divers to rescue some of the drivers. Mass transit between New Jersey and New York was down for ten days, and the storm did hundreds of millions in damage to the city. The highest water level recorded at the Battery in the past century came in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, which brought a storm surge of 8.36 feet to the Battery and flooded lower Manhattan to West and Cortland Streets. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory, Sandy's storm surge may be higher than Irene's, and has the potential to flood New York City's subway system (Figure 4.) The amount of water will depend critically upon whether or not the peak storm surge arrives at high tide or not. If the peak surge arrives near Monday evening's high tide near 9 pm EDT, a portion of New York City's subway system could flood, resulting in billions of dollars in damage. I give a 30% chance that Sandy's storm surge will end up flooding a portion of the New York City subway system.

An excellent September 2012 article in the New York Times titled, "New York Is Lagging as Seas and Risks Rise, Critics Warn" quoted Dr. Klaus H. Jacob, a research scientist at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, on how lucky New York City got with Hurricane Irene. If the storm surge from Irene had been just one foot higher, "subway tunnels would have flooded, segments of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Drive and roads along the Hudson River would have turned into rivers, and sections of the commuter rail system would have been impassable or bereft of power," he said, and the subway tunnels under the Harlem and East Rivers would have been unusable for nearly a month, or longer, at an economic loss of about $55 billion. Dr. Jacob is an adviser to the city on climate change, and an author of the 2011 state study that laid out the flooding prospects. “We’ve been extremely lucky,” he said. “I’m disappointed that the political process hasn’t recognized that we’re playing Russian roulette.” A substantial portion of New York City's electrical system is underground in flood-prone areas. Consolidated Edison, the utility that supplies electricity to most of the city, estimates that adaptations like installing submersible switches and moving high-voltage transformers above ground level would cost at least $250 million. Lacking the means, it is making gradual adjustments, with about $24 million spent in flood zones since 2007. At a conference I attended this summer in Hoboken on natural hazards on urban coasts, I talked to an official with Consolidated Edison, who was responsible for turning off Lower Manhattan's power if a storm surge floods the subway system. He said that he was ready to throw the switch during Irene, but was glad it turned out not to be needed.


Figure 4. Predicted 5-day rainfall for the period ending Thursday morning, November 1, 2012, at 8am EDT. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 5. Actual rainfall for 2011's Hurricane Irene, which caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. Sandy's rains are predicted to be about 20% less than Irene's. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.



Figure 6. Top: Current soil moisture profiles over the mid-Atlantic show mostly near-average amounts of moisture, with some dry areas in the lowest 30th percentile in recorded history over much of Delaware and Southeastern Maryland. In contrast, soil moisture profiles just before Hurricane Irene arrived, on August 24, 2011 (bottom) ranked in the top 1% in recorded history (dark green colors) over portions of NJ, PA, and NY. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.


Figure 7. A comparison of river levels just before Hurricane Sandy's arrival (left) and just before Hurricane Irene of 2011 (right) shows that river levels were much higher in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast prior to the arrival of Irene. The area of highest concern for river flooding for Sandy is eastern Pennsylvania, where river levels are in the 76 - 90th percentile, and soil moisture is in the 70th percentile. Image credit: USGS.

Sandy's rains
Sandy is expected to dump 5 - 10 inches of rain along the coast near the point the center comes ashore, and 3 - 4 inches several hundred miles inland. Higher isolated rainfall amounts of fifteen inches are likely. Rains of this magnitude are going to cause trouble. If we compare the predicted rainfall amounts for Sandy (Figure 4) with those from Hurricane Irene of 2011 (Figure 5), Sandy's are expected to be about 20% less. Hurricane Irene caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. However, the region most heavily impacted by Irene's heavy rains had very wet soils and very high river levels before Irene arrived, due to heavy rains that occurred in the weeks before the hurricane hit. That is not the case for Sandy; soil moisture is near average over most of the mid-Atlantic, and is in the lowest 30th percentile in recorded history over much of Delaware and Southeastern Maryland (Figure 6.) One region of possible concern is the Susquehanna River Valley in Eastern Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is in the 70th percentile, and river levels are in the 76th - 90th percentile. This area is currently expected to receive 2 - 4 inches of rain (Figure 4), which is not enough to cause catastrophic flooding like occurred for Hurricane Irene. However, it is quite possible that the axis of heaviest rains will shift northwards from this forecast. I expect that river flooding from Sandy will cause less than $1 billion in damage.

Links
To find out if you need to evacuate, please contact your local emergency management office. They will have the latest information. People living in New York City can find their evacuation zone here or use this map. FEMA has information on preparing for hurricanes.

People with disabilities and caregivers seeking information on accessible shelter and transportation can contact portlight.org

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Late Season Tropical Storms that have affected the U.S. north of Hatteras. He also has a post, Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook for New York City.

Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation.
Five-minute video of Hurricane Sandy on Thursday as seen from the International Space Station.

I'll probably leave this post up until late morning Sunday, unless there are some significant changes to report.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Sandy Sea Foam - Marineland FL (Talkingrock)
The amount of sea foam generated by the high sustained winds is impressive as Hurricane Sandy floods the beach at Marineland Florida. You can see the palms in the background straining against the wind.
Hurricane Sandy Sea Foam - Marineland FL
Ormond Beach, Florida (kimshot)
Hurricaine Sandy
Ormond Beach, Florida
Deerfield Beach Fl. Sandy remnants (KFLWESTBOCA)
West coast style waves
Deerfield Beach Fl. Sandy remnants

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1495. FLWeatherFreak91
2:41 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Great storm-sound from the torch cam this morning. I have never heard it sound like this at all, and check it out fairly often.Link

FYI, that cam faces North East.
I'm watching the torch live feed facing manhattan... I guess the cranes on top of one World Trade Center are going to stay up during the storm. Seems unstable lol
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3631
1494. nrtiwlnvragn
2:39 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sandy currently surpasses any other Atlantic storm in recorded history for its storm surge destructive potential value (5.7/6.0) and it has a higher Integrated Kinetc Energy (IKE) value than Hurricane Ike did in 2008.

If this isn't an indication of how destructive Sandy may be, I don't know what is.


In my opinion in this case that product is flawed, as it assumes a tropical cyclone and as the latest HWIND shows the maximum winds are well away from the center. My opinion, just don't believe that Sandy is worse than Katrina.


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11274
1493. Grothar
2:37 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I think GFS dropped it but our friend Grothar will confirm.


It is currently dropped, but I would wait for Sandy to pass out of the way and look at the high pressure if it builds back over Canada and the US.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26889
1492. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:37 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
okay, I heard that it looks like that Sandy is turning north according to the latest recon fix..that was sooner than expected according to the NHC which had her turning North on MONDAY so i wondered if she is going to be turning west sooner as well?


I don't see any turn. In fact, recon shows the center jogged east.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
1491. SSideBrac
2:36 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting plutorising:
SSideBrac, they were all over the news as it was happening last night. before any of the news media picked it up. go wu

Have deleted my entry accordingly :-)
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 314
1490. drivingdutchman
2:35 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
I see some waves overtopping the dunes in NC. What's the tide now at Kill Devil Hills, NC?
Link
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
1489. LesBonsTemps
2:34 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Re 1473. So, if I'm interpreting this correctly, the first significant flooding at the Battery is likely to place as early as the Monday morning high tide around 10 a.m. Then, in the evening high tide, extreme to catastrophic flooding, with a high probability of flooding of parts of the subway systems is likely.
Member Since: August 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 157
1488. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:34 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1487. plutorising
2:33 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
SSideBrac, they were all over the news as it was happening last night. before any of the news media picked it up. go wu
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 80
1486. 2010hurricaneseason
2:33 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Sandy's starting to look like a proper hurricane again.
Member Since: June 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 58
1485. MontanaZephyr
2:32 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting EricSpittle:


Somehow it doesn't :)

Although luckily here in the Southern Tier of NY it isn't looking like we will get the flooding we saw last year. Mainly just Wind, about 36 hours worth of possibly TS force wind. Had a nice talk with the tree out back yesterday, and it promises to fall away from my house.

Thanks again from that lurking guy who has been learning a whole hell of a lot over the last couple of days in this comment section.


One of the big problems with that general area is that not only are the trees not used to this sort of thing, but the houses in general aren't really designed with this in mind either. I am thinking mostly of the windows ... boarding them up approaches the unthinkable in many cases. Some of the older barns may well go down in this too.
Member Since: May 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 441
1484. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:32 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Sandy currently surpasses any other Atlantic storm in recorded history for its storm surge destructive potential value (5.7/6.0) and it has a higher Integrated Kinetc Energy (IKE) value than Hurricane Ike did in 2008.

If this isn't an indication of how destructive Sandy may be, I don't know what is.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
1483. SSideBrac
2:32 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Entry pulled as was a repeat
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 314
1482. Tropicsweatherpr
2:29 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting hunkerdown:
I know and understand Sandy is the current focus, but are any of the models still showing any type of formation in the Caribbean in 10 days or so?


I think GFS dropped it but our friend Grothar will confirm.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14568
1481. Grothar
2:29 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting 900MB:
Cuomo steps , closes subways, rails, etc starting at 7pm tonight.


Smart move.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26889
1480. ncstorm
2:29 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
okay, I heard that it looks like that Sandy is turning north according to the latest recon fix..that was sooner than expected according to the NHC which had her turning North on MONDAY so i wondered if she is going to be turning west sooner as well?

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
1479. beell
2:27 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
A good attempt at a storm resource for specific local areas here-as long as there are active NHC watches and warnings-which removes some of the effectiveness and reach of this product. A few active NWS Wind/Coastal Flood/Inland Flood Hazard feeds for Sandy covering the Mid Atlantic now, but nothing else. A shame.

Straight-forward and easy to navigate. STILL DESIGNATED AS AN "EXPERIMENTAL" PRODUCT!. It needs some work. A time and date stamp for the products would be helpful.

(click image for Hurricane Local Statement - Interactive Text Reader Main Page)

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16879
1478. Dakster
2:25 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting hunkerdown:
I know and understand Sandy is the current focus, but are any of the models still showing any type of formation in the Caribbean in 10 days or so?


There was earlier. Grothar can expound on that as he brought that up a couple of days ago.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10572
1477. EricSpittle
2:25 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Our other home is in the Southern Tier of PA in Bradford county.

Wow, what a small world. As long as the rainfall models the NHC has now are correct the devastating flooding should stay out of your area as well hopefully. I am concerned about this wind through, very rare in this area to have any sort of sustained winds and quite a few trees still have their leaves.
Member Since: October 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
1476. Grothar
2:19 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting EricSpittle:


Somehow it doesn't :)

Although luckily here in the Southern Tier of NY it isn't looking like we will get the flooding we saw last year. Mainly just Wind, about 36 hours worth of possibly TS force wind. Had a nice talk with the tree out back yesterday, and it promises to fall away from my house.

Thanks again from that lurking guy who has been learning a whole hell of a lot over the last couple of days in this comment section.


Our other home is in the Southern Tier of PA in Bradford county.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26889
1475. MontanaZephyr
2:19 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Great storm-sound from the torch cam this morning. I have never heard it sound like this at all, and check it out fairly often.Link

FYI, that cam faces North East.
Member Since: May 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 441
1474. hunkerdown
2:19 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
I know and understand Sandy is the current focus, but are any of the models still showing any type of formation in the Caribbean in 10 days or so?
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
1473. CloudGatherer
2:15 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Um, wow.

This is the latest surge projection for the Battery. When he wrote this update, Dr. Masters gave a catastrophic flooding event a 30% chance of reaching the subways (and, by extension, forcing the shutdown of the power grid in Lower Manhattan and the closure of the steam loops.) But that was only if the 10.5ft forecast verified.

Well, guess what? They're now projecting 11 ft. And the observations are running significantly higher than the forecast right now. Couple that with some fairly impressive wave action, and we've got a brewing catastrophe.
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
1472. Articuno
2:14 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting HurricaneGroupie:


Whoa that is too cool! Any chnce this storm could get back up to a 2?I thought for sure it would be Post tropical by now! Yet what little I know about hurricanes ;I do know that nice eye walls mean a very warm core!!!!

I think there's a chance for it to get back to 2. Anyone think it's possible? But with NHC's conservativeness it's likely not to happen.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2544
1471. EricSpittle
2:14 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Maybe a blue hole will make you feel better.



Somehow it doesn't :)

Although luckily here in the Southern Tier of NY it isn't looking like we will get the flooding we saw last year. Mainly just Wind, about 36 hours worth of possibly TS force wind. Had a nice talk with the tree out back yesterday, and it promises to fall away from my house.

Thanks again from that lurking guy who has been learning a whole hell of a lot over the last couple of days in this comment section.
Member Since: October 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
1470. nrtiwlnvragn
2:13 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Hook, line, sinker,,,,,,,,,


In October 1991, the swordfishing boat Andrea Gail returns to port in Gloucester, Massachusetts with a poor catch. Desperate for money, Captain Billy Tyne (Clooney), convinces the Andrea Gail crew to join him for one more late season fishing expedition. They head out past their usual fishing grounds, leaving a developing thunderstorm behind them. Initially unsuccessful, they head to the Flemish Cap, where their luck improves.


Link
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11274
1469. Articuno
2:13 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's very windy here, more so than yesterday.

The ocean is not happy.

Link

Whoa. I don't see any sand.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2544
1468. aislinnpaps
2:12 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Gov Cuomo on now. If Bloomburg decides evacuation today, transit will be available, but only today. National Guard will be activated. NY airports are not being closed at this time, but most transit in NYC will be.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3160
1467. 900MB
2:11 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Cuomo steps , closes subways, rails, etc starting at 7pm tonight.
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
1466. icmoore
2:11 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
1465. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:09 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #53
TYPHOON SON-TINH (T1223)
21:00 PM JST October 28 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Gulf Of Tonkin

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Son-Tinh (970 hPa) located at 19.9N 106.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 21.6N 107.3E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46173
1464. PalmBayJay
2:09 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Good morning from the Adirondacks of Northern New York. Longtime lurker but always enjoy reading the blog. Last year, I moved from Palm Bay, FL to Lake Placid, NY to assist with my soon to be 97 year old Dad. Definitely not as many hurricanes come up this way (compared to my old home in Florida) but many of the villages around Lake Placid were washed away by Irene last year. This time on the mountain, we are predicted to get some very strong winds, even hurricane forced gusts and likely to lose power. The flood threat is always possible as well. High wind warnings are up here til Tuesday. Thank you Dr. Masters for your wonderful updates and to everyone for their feedback. We will try to stay safe up here and we pray for our neighbors to the south of us who are forecast to get it much worse than we are.
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
1463. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:07 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION BOB02-2012
11:30 AM IST October 28 2012
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, latest satellite imagery and buoy observations indicate that a depression has formed over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal. Depression BOB02-2012 lays near 9.5N 86.0E, or 730 km southeast of Chennai, India 550 km east northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system would intensify into a deep depression and move initially westward towards Tamil Nadu coast.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 7.0N and 13.0N and 85.0E to 89.0E. Broken low/medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection lies over the rest southeast Bay of Bengal between 5.0N to 7.0N and 85.0E to 90.0E. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during past 12 HRS. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -70C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots gusting up to 35 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1004 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center of the depression.

The buoy observation around the center of the depression show 20-25 knot wind in the northern sector and about 15 knots in the southern sector. At 6:00 AM UTC, buoy position near 8.1N 85.5E, reported wind of 18 knots and a mean surface level pressure of 1005 hPa. Buoy located near 11.0N 86.5E reported a mean surface level pressure of 1007.5 hPa with winds of 23 knots. Earlier scatterometry data indicated 25-30 knots wind in the northern sector of the system.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm square around the system center. It is less towards the north of the system. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N and hence provides required poleward outflow for intensification of the system. The low level convergence and relative vorticity have increased during past 24 hrs as well as upper level divergence. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (10-20 knots) around system center. However, it increases towards north Tamil Nadu and adjoining sea areas
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46173
1462. 900MB
2:07 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting stormchaser19:


I think the time to evacuate NYC is over, so many people live there......so this is major problem for mayor Bloomber... This storm is supposed to expand in the next 24 hours, they will start feel TS wind tomorow in the morning

Still time to get people out of the battery but gotta start now!
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
1461. Grothar
2:05 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting EricSpittle:

Every time you post this model run I get closer and closer to believing that instead of a hurricane I will be swallowed by a black hole.


Maybe a blue hole will make you feel better.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26889
1460. aislinnpaps
2:05 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting 900MB:
Bloomberg news conference at 11am (7 hours earlier than scheduled). Will he order evacuations? Last chance to gt it right!


I can understand not trying to evacuate NYC, not that many roads to send people out of there. But I think instead of focusing on the possible water levels, they need to be concentrating on making people understand they may be without electric for a good while. And even when the electric comes back on, their stores aren't going to just have the supplies they need. It isn't just a case of the electric goes out and all is back to normal when it comes back on.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3160
1459. trunkmonkey
2:05 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
I'm looking at the bigger picture here, by the looks of the path, Pennsylvania could get epic flooding, i.e. remember the Johnstown flood? The area had recent heavy rainfalls due the the front that was absorbed into Sandy.
I'm not so worried about the surge, I'm really worried about the flooding and how government will respond, many roads in Pennsylvania, could be washed out do to the topography of the State.
New Jersey and Maryland and West Virginia should be worried too!
If I lived in any of those States, I'd take action NOW!
I'm not a doom and gloomer, but I can read the stars!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 587
1458. Melagoo
2:04 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1604
1457. MrstormX
2:03 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
WRF 939mb landfall





Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1456. CybrTeddy
2:03 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's very windy here, more so than yesterday.

The ocean is not happy.

Link


Well there's a hurricane off your coast, not sure if you knew yet. ;)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24484
1455. aislinnpaps
2:02 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting snotly:
Ah, no worries, just a reenactment of the perfect storm movie. I thought someone would catch it, but speaking of... How do the two storms compare? This almost looks worse than the 1991 Perfect Storm. I wouldn't want to be trying to come into port with this thing coming at me.




I was wondering when I read that...
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3160
1454. 900MB
2:02 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Bloomberg news conference at 11am (7 hours earlier than scheduled). Will he order evacuations? Last chance to gt it right!
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
1453. HurricaneGroupie
2:01 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting barbamz:
High resolution visible loop of the new eye.


Whoa that is too cool! Any chnce this storm could get back up to a 2?I thought for sure it would be Post tropical by now! Yet what little I know about hurricanes ;I do know that nice eye walls mean a very warm core!!!!
Member Since: June 13, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 32
1452. snotly
2:00 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Ah, no worries, just a reenactment of the perfect storm movie. I thought someone would catch it, but speaking of... How do the two storms compare? This almost looks worse than the 1991 Perfect Storm. I wouldn't want to be trying to come into port with this thing coming at me.


Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


how long will it take you to get there?
Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 686
1451. guygee
1:59 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting stormchaser19:


I think the time to evacuate NYC is over, so many people live there......so this is major problem for mayor Bloomber... This storm is supposed to expand in the next 24 hours, they will start feel TS wind tomorow in the morning
Right now he is Mayor Bloomber, but after the storm he will just be mayor Blo.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3174
1450. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:59 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
It's very windy here, more so than yesterday.

The ocean is not happy.

Link
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
1449. will40
1:59 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting HurricaneGroupie:
Does any one know how the Outer Banks are doing?The road has got to be washed out in places allready! I heard that place floods during fullmoon high tides without giant storms just off to its East!!!!!


Highway 12 washed out in places and here is a web cam from Nags HeadLink
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4266
1448. islander101010
1:58 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
shortly upon landfall in se.cuba i believe sandy was a major. just look at the photos from that area. there arent many photos released maybe because the castros are embarrassed by the extreme poverty in that part of cuba
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4891
1447. WeatherNerdPR
1:57 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It didn't look like a hurricane in the Caribbean. It looked like a major hurricane there. :P

It appears it'll be upgraded in the post-season, according to the wording in one of the discussions:
HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

EARLIER THIS MORNING...SANDY MADE LANDFALL JUST WEST OF SANTIAGO DE
CUBA AS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. CUBAN RADAR DATA AND
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED
THAT SANDY HAD A WELL-DEFINED 20-24 N MI DIAMETER EYE WHEN IT MADE
LANDFALL. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 117 KT AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE ESTIMATES OF 91-92 KT. A
BLEND OF THESE DATA YIELDS A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF 99 KT...JUST
BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. THE MAIN REASON WHY SANDY WAS HELD
JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WAS DUE TO THE SUSTAINED 68-KT
WIND AND GUST TO 99 KT THAT OCCURRED AROUND 0517Z. HOWEVER...
STRONGER WINDS MAY HAVE OCCURRED LATER WHEN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE EYEWALL MOVED ONSHORE...WHICH IS THE QUADRANT WHERE
THE 117-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS OBSERVED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
90 KT IS BASED ON WIND DECAY MODELS FOR HURRICANES OVER LAND.

Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1446. EricSpittle
1:57 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Quoting Grothar:

Every time you post this model run I get closer and closer to believing that instead of a hurricane I will be swallowed by a black hole.
Member Since: October 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
1445. gulfbreeze
1:57 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
This is not your normal Hurricane, and it's never been more true DO Not just look at where the center will come ashore. The angle will cause the surge to be bad north of the center in NEW YORK.
Member Since: June 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 925

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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