Sandy remains a hurricane, slowly leaving the Bahamas

By: Angela Fritz , 9:28 PM GMT on October 26, 2012

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Reuters reports that the death toll from Sandy in the Caribbean is now up to 41 people as Hurricane Sandy continues its track toward the U.S. East Coast this afternoon, slowly leaving the Bahamas. States of Emergency have been declared in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and New York. The hurricane is just barely still a Category 1 with surface winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 971 mb. Ocean buoys off the coasts of Florida and the Carolinas are recording sustained winds of around 45 mph this afternoon, with gusts steadily increasing and now up to 60 mph. Sandy's rainfall, which is limited to the north and northeast parts of the storm, is reaching eastern Florida, though most of it is staying offshore.

Satellite loops show an asymmetric Sandy, with almost all of the thunderstorm activity on its north side. The hurricane still has a very clear center of surface circulation which you can see on visible and infrared loops. Though the hurricane is leaving the influence of an upper level low pressure area over western Cuba, water vapor imagery shows a large area of dry air being pulled into the storm from the south, which is leading to the lack of thunderstorm activity and contributing to the weakening that Sandy is experiencing right now. The hurricane's tropical storm-force winds now extend 240 miles from the center, and could grow to 400 miles from the center by the time it reaches the East Coast.


Figure 1. Visible/infrared satellite image of Sandy as it leaves the Bahamas this afternoon. The mid-latitude trough, which Sandy will interact with over the next few days, is seen approaching from the northwest. The cold front associated with this trough is draped from upstate New York south to Louisiana, and appears as a line of clouds draped across the Midwest and South in this image.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy

As a tropical cyclone approaches land, the worst storm surge is almost always where the winds are blowing from ocean to shore, where the wind pushes the water toward and onto the shore. In the case of Sandy's potential track, this region is on the north side of the center. In this morning's GFS scenario, Sandy's center passes over eastern Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. This would result in the highest surge north of New York City: Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and possibly Maine. The ECMWF forecast from this morning is a bit further to the south. It's suggesting Sandy's center will meet land in New Jersey. This scenario opens up New York City, Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southern coastal Mass. to the largest surge. In general, the places that will avoid the largest storm surge are those that are south of where the center of the storm makes landfall. The National Hurricane Center's forecast is similar to the ECMWF, but most importantly, its forecast is also to not focus on the exact point of landfall because of the size of the storm, and that widespread impact is expected.

The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts should be prepared for a storm surge no matter their exact location. A large portion of the coast will feel the impact of up to 60 mph winds and heavy rain. According to the most recent H*Wind analysis from the Hurricane Research Division is that storm surge has a destructive potential of 4.8 out of 6.0, which is a slight increase from previous analyses. Wind damage potential is holding steady around 2.3 out of 6.0. NOAA's HPC is forecasting rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and possibly more in coastal locations close to the core of the storm. Widespread power outages from Maine south to Virginia are likely, due to the combination of long-lived gale-force winds, leaves on trees, and rain that will moisten the soil and possibly increase the chances of falling trees. Snow in the Appalachians is also possible as the intense moisture meets the cold air being pulled south by the mid-latitude trough.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for the Atlantic shows a large area of unusually warm waters up to 9°F above average off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast.

Sandy to feed off near-record warm waters off the mid-Atlantic coast
During September 2012, ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic coast in the 5x10° latitude-longitude box between 35 - 40°N, 65 - 75° W were 2.3°F (1.3°C) above average, according to the UK Met Office. This is the 2nd greatest departure from average for ocean temperatures in this region since reliable ocean temperature measurements began over a century ago (all-time record: 2.0°C above average in September 1947.) These unusually warm waters have persisted into October, and will enable Sandy to pull more energy from the ocean than a typical October hurricane. The warm waters will also help increase Sandy's rains, since more water vapor will evaporate into the air from a warm ocean. I expect Sandy will dump the heaviest October rains on record over a large swath of the mid-Atlantic and New England.

Hurricane rains and climate change
Hurricanes are expected to dump 20% more rain in their cores by the year 2100, according to modeling studies (Knutson et al., 2010). This occurs since a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, which can then condense into heavier rains. Furthermore, the condensation process releases heat energy (latent heat), which invigorates the storm, making its updrafts stronger and creating even more rain. We may already be seeing an increase in rainfall from hurricanes due to a warmer atmosphere. A 2010 study by Kunkel et al. "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that although there is no evidence for a long-term increase in North American mainland land-falling tropical cyclones (which include both hurricanes and tropical storms), the number of heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008. As I discussed in a 2011 post "Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?", an increase in heavy precipitation events in the 21st Century due to climate change is going to be a big problem for a flood control system designed for the 20th Century's climate.


Figure 3. Time series of the 15-yr running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of the tropical cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and the associated 15-yr total of U.S. landfalling hurricanes from Atlantic HURDAT hurricane data base, from 1895 - 2008 (blue). Note the steep rise in heavy precipitation events from tropical cyclones over the past 20 years, which has not been accompanied by a corresponding increase in landfalling hurricanes. Image credit: Kunkel et al., 2010, Geophysical Research Letters.

Angela Fritz and Jeff Masters

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Quoting yonzabam:



Hardly. Winds are expected to be 80 mph tops. It's not the intensity - it's the sheer size of the thing, the large area that will be affected, and the long duration of the storm that are the issues.

It'll be a historic power outage, I think.
The Marketwatch article to which the OP referred makes a pretty good case for a possible worst-case-scenario being NYC's most intense ever. Not necessarily in terms of wind, of course, but primarily from storm surge flooding for an extended period, perhaps lasting as long as three high tides (including the month's largest).

So much depends on timing, of course, as well as Sandy's strength, exact location, and the rest. But if those entirely possible "worst things" come to pass, Sandy will be one for posterity...
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Good morning/evening all. A chilly 44 degrees in my part of Louisiana.

I emailed my sister who lives two hours north of NYC to make sure she is paying attention to Sandy, and that my nephew who lives in NJ is, no answer. So, I already know they are like "We'll be fine, no problems." I get so frustrated sometimes...
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Flood inundation map for NYC



Image of 1992 storm

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
JTWC upgrades Son-Tinh to cat 3.

WTPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 17.5N 108.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 108.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.6N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.7N 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.6N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.3N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.6N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 108.3E.
TYPHOON 24W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARS AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271200Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z
AND 281500Z. //
NNNN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
917. air360 9:17 AM EDT on October 27, 2012

please dont quote the nuthead. Some of us have him on ignore and dont wish to see his post
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Quoting ncstorm:


not to mention they have a lake that sits in the middle of the town..


yah, that too
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I see this storm maintaining its pressure around 960 millibars for the good part of today. Such a unique storm and its only at the latitude of Orlando. It will double in size alone when it moves another 20 degrees further north. That variable combined with fact that the upper level conditions will improve due to baroclinic strengthening and the phasing with the trough will only add to the strength of the storm. Shear will lessen by almost half of what it is experiencing now by tomorrow afternoon. I'd say given the current situation the models have a pretty darn grasp of the storms pressure and winds. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see a 80-90 knot storm with a pressures sub 930 millibars. It's just that kind of beast, a much different one that we are not accustom seeing at all. It would also not surprise me if the surge forecast is adjusted upwards. With pressures that low, over that long of duration, astronomical high tides...10-15 ft surge with waves of 20-40 feet on top of that is definitely within the realm of possibility. That's just my opinion...
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Quoting K8eCane:


Remember Hurricane Fran? You may not be old enough. I still have the newspaper from the day after, and if I could scan it, I would show you a pic from CB


not to mention they have a lake that sits in the middle of the town..
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Quoting K8eCane:


Remember Hurricane Fran? You may not be old enough. I still have the newspaper from the day after, and if I could scan it, I would show you a pic from CB
was 2 years before I was born. But I would still like to see it. :)
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Quoting Articuno:

O_o


Remember Hurricane Fran? You may not be old enough. I still have the newspaper from the day after, and if I could scan it, I would show you a pic from CB
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It's listed by JTWC as a Cat 1 but it's been undergoing RI so the next advisory will bring it up probably to a high end Cat 2 or a Cat 3. Vietnam's in big trouble though, this was supposed to come in as no more than a minimal typhoon, a lot of people will be caught off guard.


This is one of the more lightly-populated areas of the Vietnamese coast, north of Hue/Danang in southern North Vietnam, but the only principal conduit (road/rail) hugs the coast,so ground travel will be completely shut down, more than likely. Also, looks like the principal Chinese tropical resort of Sanya on the SE coast of Hainan Island is getting pounded pretty good.
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Quoting ncstorm:
there is already flooding in Carolina Beach, NC..pic courtesy of WECT TV


O_o
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Quoting LargoFl:
New York faces Most Intense Storm in History according to market watch



Hardly. Winds are expected to be 80 mph tops. It's not the intensity - it's the sheer size of the thing, the large area that will be affected, and the long duration of the storm that are the issues.

It'll be a historic power outage, I think.
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there is already flooding in Carolina Beach, NC..pic courtesy of WECT TV

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Quoting ILwthrfan:


It does look a like a small compact system though, that should minimize the surge to being extreme only in a local area. The flooding from the rainfall however will be epic especially since its circling back around for another turn.

Yep, looks like it's in no hurry to leave. The new advisory actually just came in a little earlier than usual, it's now listed by JTWC at 110kts.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It's listed by JTWC as a Cat 1 but it's been undergoing RI so the next advisory will bring it up probably to a high end Cat 2 or a Cat 3. Vietnam's in big trouble though, this was supposed to come in as no more than a minimal typhoon, a lot of people will be caught off guard.


It does look a like a small compact system though, that should minimize the surge to being extreme only in a local area. The flooding from the rainfall however will be epic especially since its circling back around for another turn.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
what if Sandy's pressure goes 920-940 mg with winds just over 75-80 mph??? could this happen really?



We had two storms with pressure under 950 in Europe last year. I don't remember either of them!
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New York faces Most Intense Storm in History according to market watch
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

One of the planes found 957mb in the center earlier though. Winds don't seem to be coming down, but the pressure did rise which is a general indication of weakening. It's likely just a temporary fluctuation though.


I would argue that she's maintaining strength. Did you notice yesterday that one plane would find something like 955 mb and then another would find 963 mb, in the span of 15 minutes. Maybe it was an aircraft issue.
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Sunny in the upper keys but we are still getting wind WNW 25 gusting to 38 76degrees
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936. NJ2S
Quoting LargoFl:
didnt GRO have a model at 928 or something when she comes ashore?..geez


that would be frightening....Katrina was at 922 at landfall
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Quoting NorthernVADoS:


Just curious, why would that indicate weakening. They found 72 mph surface winds and a pressure of 962 on the latest AF vortex message.

One of the planes found 957mb in the center earlier though. Winds don't seem to be coming down, but the pressure did rise which is a general indication of weakening. It's likely just a temporary fluctuation though.
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what if Sandy's pressure goes 920-940 mg with winds just over 75-80 mph??? could this happen really?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Storm rain totals off the coast of NC are starting to build up - pretty impressive image.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That would seem to indicate some pretty significant weakening in the last hour or so. It's really fluctuating a lot right now.


Just curious, why would that indicate weakening. They found 72 mph surface winds and a pressure of 962 on the latest AF vortex message.
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Quoting breald:


Oh okay, my family is located in the Fall River area. What are local mets saying about the impact of this storm?


YO! breald. Where have you been hiding? You better keep them informed. I have already called my relatives in New Jersey. Some live in Barnegat Bay and some in Morris County. Most live on Long Island. They are beginning to take it seriously now.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
@ headlinenews : MW: NYC may evacuate 375,000 ahead of Hurricane Sandy:Mayor to make decision soon
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Watching the hurricane hunters I think I should have bought stocks in the dropsonde industry. More than 20 have been already used in the missions which are taking place right now. Wonder how many it will be until this mess with Sandy is over?


Dropsonde from wiki
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The new NOAA vortex message confirms Sandy's pressure is rising.

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 962mb (28.41 inHg)
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Quoting ILwthrfan:


Wow that a CAT 3?

It's listed by JTWC as a Cat 1 but it's been undergoing RI so the next advisory will bring it up probably to a high end Cat 2 or a Cat 3. Vietnam's in big trouble though, this was supposed to come in as no more than a minimal typhoon, a lot of people will be caught off guard.
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Quoting Maryland1:


I believe your words were to the effect of "I have never seen anything this large." That got my attention.


Yeah, and when I say things like that, I am talking about "before record keeping began" :)

And you are correct. I have never seen anything quite like this is size moving into the Northeast.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Hello iam trying to use the animated feature from CIMSS with sandy but for some odd reason my labtop keeps saving it as a bitman (BMP) image which is not animated. Also trying to save images from the ssd noaa site and it does the same.

Do you guys have any idea on whats going on?

Thanks
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Quoting K8eCane:


This damn thing IS becoming a freakin EPIC noreaster...I just hope my supplies dont need to last longer. I got as much as I could


I went out yesterday and bought a few extra just in case..this storm is really going extra and beyond
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923. atris
I just beleive that its an subtropical even extropical storm in all but name, the change occurred around 30N the expanding Windfield the loss of cloud tops but its actually irrelevant, as its going to be a really bad storm

Here is an explanation of extropical storms

Link
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
West Pacific:



Wow that a CAT 3? Underground only says 85 mph, it looks a little stronger than that...
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Isn't shear forecast to drop tonight from the 50-60 knots of shear it has presently over it to around 30 knots?
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West Pacific:

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Thank you for sharing this. Given the size of the storm, I'm trying to figure out the likelihood of flights taking off late Sun afternoon -- or if the system will already be impacting the area.

Quoting LargoFl:
..here from the nws...........THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. THE
ADVISORY WILL INCLUDE ALL WATERS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS TROPICAL STORM SANDY TO TRACK
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND MOVING
TOWARD THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
TRACK OF SANDY COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

IMPACTS INCLUDE...

FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN: A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DC-BALTIMORE CORRIDOR WEST TO FREDERICK COUNTY MARYLAND AND INTO
LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM. RISES ON
RIVERS COULD CONTINUE FLOODING POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

DAMAGING WINDS: IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. AT THIS TIME...THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS APPEARS TO BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

COASTAL FLOODING: PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW AND A FULL MOON ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS WEEKEND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT OVER THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
AND MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. GALE
OR STORM WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS FOR
UPDATES ON THE TRACK OF SANDY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IF
SANDY APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

$$
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Quoting THEYGOOFEDAGAIN:
yesterday it was new jersey and nyc lastg night it was south jersey this morning its now maryland where will it be tonight carolina? i know retail sales have been down in the north east but come on dont panic the whole east coast to go spending


You have about 20 posts on this forum and all 20 have been nothing but negativity and criticizing the NHC, people on this forum, and more or less calling people stupid for taking this seriously. Please just go away. You're being an idiot and really annoying. I dont hide people often because i believe everyone should have free speech and an opinion but you are pushing the limit man...geeze
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:

UZNT13 KWBC 271307
XXAA 77137 99288 70765 08086 99963 25604 02516 00838 ///// /////
92351 23607 02520 85090 20611 03017 70756 13424 04504 88999 77999
31313 09608 81252
61616 NOAA2 1418A SANDY OB 27
62626 EYE SPL 2879N07646W 1257 MBL WND 02518 AEV 07450 DLM WND 03
012 962646 WL150 02517 084 REL 2880N07646W 125257 SPG 2879N07646W
125735 =
XXBB 77138 99288 70765 08086 00963 25604 11850 20611 22821 20425
33726 15229 44646 09007
21212 00963 02516 11907 02521 22874 02514 33850 03017 44817 01015
55794 04010 66739 02512 77646 12504
31313 09608 81252
61616 NOAA2 1418A SANDY OB 27
62626 EYE SPL 2879N07646W 1257 MBL WND 02518 AEV 07450 DLM WND 03
012 962646 WL150 02517 084 REL 2880N07646W 125257 SPG 2879N07646W
125735 =


Dropsonde: SLP 963 with 16 kt wind

That would seem to indicate some pretty significant weakening in the last hour or so. It's really fluctuating a lot right now.
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Now, these are not surface winds or pressures. It would relate to pressure at 950mb height.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting ncstorm:
for anyone interested in monitoring the wind speeds of the Buoys on the East Coast

from Henry Margusity
Those winds shown on the Buoys way away from the center are an indication of the wind field spreading out and the danger that is coming.



This damn thing IS becoming a freakin EPIC noreaster...I just hope my supplies dont need to last longer. I got as much as I could
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Quoting breald:


Oh okay, my family is located in the Fall River area. What are local mets saying about the impact of this storm?

They're taking it fairly seriously. It kind of depends on which one you listen to but generally they're expecting 2-5 inches of rain, wind gusts up to 70mph, and moderate coastal flooding with some storm surge. Basically a major, but not completely unprecedented, Nor'easter for this area.
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Quoting breald:


Oh okay, my family is located in the Fall River area. What are local mets saying about the impact of this storm?
...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
EXPERIENCE IMPACTS FROM SANDY FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK
TIME FRAME.

STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS /POSSIBLY HURRICANE FORCE/ WILL RESULT HIGH
SEAS OF 30 FEET ALONG BOTH COASTLINES. STORM SURGES OF AT LEAST 4
FEET WILL RESULT IN SEVERE BEACH EROSION. HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT
THE WATERS RESULTING IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES COMBINED WITH SPRAY
OFF OF HIGH CAPPING WAVES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

$$
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UZNT13 KWBC 271307
XXAA 77137 99288 70765 08086 99963 25604 02516 00838 ///// /////
92351 23607 02520 85090 20611 03017 70756 13424 04504 88999 77999
31313 09608 81252
61616 NOAA2 1418A SANDY OB 27
62626 EYE SPL 2879N07646W 1257 MBL WND 02518 AEV 07450 DLM WND 03
012 962646 WL150 02517 084 REL 2880N07646W 125257 SPG 2879N07646W
125735 =
XXBB 77138 99288 70765 08086 00963 25604 11850 20611 22821 20425
33726 15229 44646 09007
21212 00963 02516 11907 02521 22874 02514 33850 03017 44817 01015
55794 04010 66739 02512 77646 12504
31313 09608 81252
61616 NOAA2 1418A SANDY OB 27
62626 EYE SPL 2879N07646W 1257 MBL WND 02518 AEV 07450 DLM WND 03
012 962646 WL150 02517 084 REL 2880N07646W 125257 SPG 2879N07646W
125735 =


Dropsonde: SLP 963 with 16 kt wind
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14915
for anyone interested in monitoring the wind speeds of the Buoys on the East Coast

from Henry Margusity
Those winds shown on the Buoys way away from the center are an indication of the wind field spreading out and the danger that is coming.

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A few names I have heard for sandy.

The storm that’s really going to suck (950mb)
The extra tropical Hurricane.
The sub tropical hurricane
The perfect storm.
The really big puff of wind.
The big comma, before the blow

The best of all from a friend in NJ.

What storm?
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So far going by some personal weather stations in the area Morehead City, NC has recieved a 41mph gust with winds on average 10-20mph
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906. 900MB
Anyone have a storm surge forecast for NYC/LI for Sandy?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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