Sandy remains a hurricane, slowly leaving the Bahamas

By: Angela Fritz , 9:28 PM GMT on October 26, 2012

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Reuters reports that the death toll from Sandy in the Caribbean is now up to 41 people as Hurricane Sandy continues its track toward the U.S. East Coast this afternoon, slowly leaving the Bahamas. States of Emergency have been declared in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and New York. The hurricane is just barely still a Category 1 with surface winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 971 mb. Ocean buoys off the coasts of Florida and the Carolinas are recording sustained winds of around 45 mph this afternoon, with gusts steadily increasing and now up to 60 mph. Sandy's rainfall, which is limited to the north and northeast parts of the storm, is reaching eastern Florida, though most of it is staying offshore.

Satellite loops show an asymmetric Sandy, with almost all of the thunderstorm activity on its north side. The hurricane still has a very clear center of surface circulation which you can see on visible and infrared loops. Though the hurricane is leaving the influence of an upper level low pressure area over western Cuba, water vapor imagery shows a large area of dry air being pulled into the storm from the south, which is leading to the lack of thunderstorm activity and contributing to the weakening that Sandy is experiencing right now. The hurricane's tropical storm-force winds now extend 240 miles from the center, and could grow to 400 miles from the center by the time it reaches the East Coast.


Figure 1. Visible/infrared satellite image of Sandy as it leaves the Bahamas this afternoon. The mid-latitude trough, which Sandy will interact with over the next few days, is seen approaching from the northwest. The cold front associated with this trough is draped from upstate New York south to Louisiana, and appears as a line of clouds draped across the Midwest and South in this image.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy

As a tropical cyclone approaches land, the worst storm surge is almost always where the winds are blowing from ocean to shore, where the wind pushes the water toward and onto the shore. In the case of Sandy's potential track, this region is on the north side of the center. In this morning's GFS scenario, Sandy's center passes over eastern Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. This would result in the highest surge north of New York City: Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and possibly Maine. The ECMWF forecast from this morning is a bit further to the south. It's suggesting Sandy's center will meet land in New Jersey. This scenario opens up New York City, Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southern coastal Mass. to the largest surge. In general, the places that will avoid the largest storm surge are those that are south of where the center of the storm makes landfall. The National Hurricane Center's forecast is similar to the ECMWF, but most importantly, its forecast is also to not focus on the exact point of landfall because of the size of the storm, and that widespread impact is expected.

The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts should be prepared for a storm surge no matter their exact location. A large portion of the coast will feel the impact of up to 60 mph winds and heavy rain. According to the most recent H*Wind analysis from the Hurricane Research Division is that storm surge has a destructive potential of 4.8 out of 6.0, which is a slight increase from previous analyses. Wind damage potential is holding steady around 2.3 out of 6.0. NOAA's HPC is forecasting rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and possibly more in coastal locations close to the core of the storm. Widespread power outages from Maine south to Virginia are likely, due to the combination of long-lived gale-force winds, leaves on trees, and rain that will moisten the soil and possibly increase the chances of falling trees. Snow in the Appalachians is also possible as the intense moisture meets the cold air being pulled south by the mid-latitude trough.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for the Atlantic shows a large area of unusually warm waters up to 9°F above average off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast.

Sandy to feed off near-record warm waters off the mid-Atlantic coast
During September 2012, ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic coast in the 5x10° latitude-longitude box between 35 - 40°N, 65 - 75° W were 2.3°F (1.3°C) above average, according to the UK Met Office. This is the 2nd greatest departure from average for ocean temperatures in this region since reliable ocean temperature measurements began over a century ago (all-time record: 2.0°C above average in September 1947.) These unusually warm waters have persisted into October, and will enable Sandy to pull more energy from the ocean than a typical October hurricane. The warm waters will also help increase Sandy's rains, since more water vapor will evaporate into the air from a warm ocean. I expect Sandy will dump the heaviest October rains on record over a large swath of the mid-Atlantic and New England.

Hurricane rains and climate change
Hurricanes are expected to dump 20% more rain in their cores by the year 2100, according to modeling studies (Knutson et al., 2010). This occurs since a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, which can then condense into heavier rains. Furthermore, the condensation process releases heat energy (latent heat), which invigorates the storm, making its updrafts stronger and creating even more rain. We may already be seeing an increase in rainfall from hurricanes due to a warmer atmosphere. A 2010 study by Kunkel et al. "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that although there is no evidence for a long-term increase in North American mainland land-falling tropical cyclones (which include both hurricanes and tropical storms), the number of heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008. As I discussed in a 2011 post "Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?", an increase in heavy precipitation events in the 21st Century due to climate change is going to be a big problem for a flood control system designed for the 20th Century's climate.


Figure 3. Time series of the 15-yr running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of the tropical cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and the associated 15-yr total of U.S. landfalling hurricanes from Atlantic HURDAT hurricane data base, from 1895 - 2008 (blue). Note the steep rise in heavy precipitation events from tropical cyclones over the past 20 years, which has not been accompanied by a corresponding increase in landfalling hurricanes. Image credit: Kunkel et al., 2010, Geophysical Research Letters.

Angela Fritz and Jeff Masters

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My husband was just activated by the Red Cross to help setting up evacuation shelters.

I am sure most people here realize this but I just wanted to say to everyone in the path of the storm, know where your local shelters are going to be and if you have pets what their policy is going to be, even if you are not in an evacuation zone. You may have to leave your home unexpectedly and don't want to be wandering around in the storm trying to figure out where to go.
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979 ncstorm: LOL..the Dare County Emergency official is just busting TWC bubble... he was saying this storm is not on the level of Irene... the more the reporter tried to doom the situation, the more he kept saying the outerbanks will be okay.

He should quit worrying about hurting the tourism business, and worry about the people living there.
A center passage ~40miles offshore of a storm with a 450mile-max.radius TropicalStorm-force windfield ain't gonna be an experience that's gonna make folks wanna recommend OBX to their friends.

All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for HurricaneSandy @ 27Oct.12pm
Since the previous mapping, 27Oct.6am's StormStatus has been re-evaluated&altered from TropicalStorm to Hurricane
28.1n76.9 has been re-evaluated&altered
28.1n77.0w-28.8n76.8w are now the most recent positions

MYR-MyrtleBeach :: GGE-Georgetown :: MHH-GreatAbaco

The southernmost dot on the longest line is H.Sandy's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through H.Sandy's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to an inhabited coastline
26Oct.06pm: H.Sandy had been headed for passage midway between CapeRomainHarbor and YawkeySouthIslandReserve (bottom,GGEdumbbell)
27Oct.12am: H.Sandy had been headed for passage over MyrtleBeach (right,MYRblob)
27Oct.06am: H.Sandy had been headed for passage 40.1miles(64.5kilometres)ESEast of CapeHatteras (right,straightline-top blob)
27Oct.12pm: H.Sandy had been heading for passage 38.4miles(61.9kilometres)ESEast of CapeHatteras

Click this link to the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map with more info
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1004. breald
I know protecting human life is very important during a major weather event, but don't forget about your pets.
Link
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1003. K8eCane
Quoting Maryland1:


That says storm name ISAAC
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KBIX)
Disseminated Through: Keesler AFB, backup for KNHC (TPC/NHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 03:05Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 16
Observation Number: 22

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Sunday, 1:26Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 28.7N 86.0W
Location: 104 miles (167 km) between the S and SSW (191°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,930 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 30° at 22 knots (From the NNE at ~ 25.3 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -24°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -30°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Clear
D-value: 48 geopotential meters

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Mission Status: Concluded (Last Report)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

Signing off with my last recco - God Bless all past Hurricane Hunters and Gods Speed to all those who carry on.
It has been a wonderful ride Christa Clynch Hornbaker -
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 122
BEC scrambles to restore power

Royston Jones Jr.
Guardian Staff Reporter
royston@nasguard.com

Published: Oct 27, 2012


The majority of New Providence customers without power will have their electricity supplies restored by today, General Manager of the Bahamas Electricity Company (BEC) Kevin Basden said yesterday.

Basden said 50 percent of BEC's customers in New Providence had no electricity yesterday afternoon.

At a press conference at the National Emergency Management Agency's (NEMA) emergency center, Basden told reporters that power outages were a result of lines clashing in high winds and downed poles.

Crews began to replace poles and overhead lines, in an effort to restore power in most of the affected areas, he said.

"We restored the bigger set of areas first to [return power] to as many customers, and our transmission systems are in fact intact; we have that back in, and a number of our primary sub-stations have already been restored," he said.
"The work continues. We anticipate getting most customers back up by this evening (Friday), but it would be premature to give a completion time as further assessments followed by repairs are still necessary."
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Brad Panovich ‏@wxbrad
Water height time series for lower Manhattan based on modeling. http://twitpic.com/b7vjuh #Sandy #NYCwx #NYC

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Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KBIX)
Disseminated Through: Keesler AFB, backup for KNHC (TPC/NHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 03:05Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 16
Observation Number: 22

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Sunday, 1:26Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 28.7N 86.0W
Location: 104 miles (167 km) between the S and SSW (191°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,930 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 30° at 22 knots (From the NNE at ~ 25.3 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -24°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -30°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Clear
D-value: 48 geopotential meters

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Mission Status: Concluded (Last Report)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

Signing off with my last recco - God Bless all past Hurricane Hunters and Gods Speed to all those who carry on.
It has been a wonderful ride Christa Clynch Hornbaker -
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998. beell
...
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Quoting Gustavike:
Anyone know where the file of this map:
Several sources, I usually get them from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.
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I believe Sandy is currently at its weakest she is going to get until landfall. This satellite picture has me in awe...
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Quoting leftlink:
i think you missed the biggest coastal winter storm, the one which "bombed out just SE of new jersey in 1978, and sat off of nantucket on February 6:

953 mb





Ahhh...the blizzard of 1978, I remember it well.
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Quoting SSideBrac:


First I do not know where you live so cannot comment on whether your time would be better spent preparing than complaining.
Your posts sound all too much like those of a "serial complainer" - and probably one who would be front and centre and loudest in the line if you did not receive adequate warning of a possible crisis.
You epitomise the term "complacency" - so if nothing positive to add, then perhaps do not post!
This system has already killed people and caused significant damage - if some hype prevents one further single death - then let them hype away as far as I am concerned.

Your just feeding them, leave them alone, don't quote them and they will sooner or later disappear.


Alabama power companies headed east on I-20 to tackle Sandy.

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Quoting ILwthrfan:
I see this storm maintaining its pressure around 960 millibars for the good part of today. Such a unique storm and its only at the latitude of Orlando. It will double in size alone when it moves another 20 degrees further north. That variable combined with fact that the upper level conditions will improve due to baroclinic strengthening and the phasing with the trough will only add to the strength of the storm. Shear will lessen by almost half of what it is experiencing now by tomorrow afternoon. I'd say given the current situation the models have a pretty darn grasp of the storms pressure and winds. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see a 80-90 knot storm with a pressures sub 930 millibars. It's just that kind of beast, a much different one that we are not accustom seeing at all. It would also not surprise me if the surge forecast adjusted upwards. With pressures that low, over that long of duration, astronomical high tides...10-15 ft surge with waves of 20-40 feet on top of that is definitely within the realm of possibility. That's just my opinion...



Bingo. You win on what has been bothering me since I starting looking at the water temps along the way.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 122
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
I remember earlier in the week models showing more intense convection on the western side of the storm, HWIND now verifies that:




NRT good morning..

By any chance do you have the link to that free weather station online that was created by a met? Had it bookmarked but somehow erased.

thanks
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Quoting ncstorm:


I went out yesterday and bought a few extra just in case..this storm is really going extra and beyond

Bro it's a borderline TS/Hurricane choking on dry air... It's not a category 5 we are talking about here.
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Quoting MontanaZephyr:
I'm not the first to bring up the issue of what this storm's impact might be on the election ... but the more I think about it, the more likely it seems. I think it is safe to surmise that operatives in both parties are already asking themselves how the event of the storm can be used, and the potential is there that this storm could do for this election what Florida did for the 2000 election.

It's going to be a messy week.
Why is that "safe to surmise that operatives in both parties are already asking themselves how the event of the storm can be used"? That seems a tad cynical... I mean, both sides are likely asking how the storm will impact their campaign schedules, and/or how it might influence the election itself. But that's quite a bit different than actively plotting to "use" the storm to gain a political advantage.

My guess: the side currently in power will do its best not to make any missteps lest those mistakes be pounced upon as the current President's "Katrina" (already a meme in some circles), while the other side will be hoping and praying there are missteps by the current administration that can be leveraged to discredit the President. Neither of those seems particularly underhanded; it's just the way the American political system works.
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Quoting Grothar:


YO! breald. Where have you been hiding? You better keep them informed. I have already called my relatives in New Jersey. Some live in Barnegat Bay and some in Morris County. Most live on Long Island. They are beginning to take it seriously now.


Hey Grothar, the place where my parents like made everyone take their patio furniture in. I hope the majority are listening to what the local authorities are saying. But you know how those Yankees are, very stubborn...LOL
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988. beell
Extratropical Water Level Forecast
NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory


Click a region/station. Black line on graph represents forecast of the 5 day average predicted tide plus predicted surge for the selected station.
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Quoting ncstorm:


I was laughing throughout that whole interview..Stephanie Abrams keeps saying this is worst than Irene when they go to her in Delaware but dang if that Dare County official just didnt put a needle in that bubble..

Lol. It's always funny when TWC gets trolled.

(oh wait we are TWC o_o)
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2179


NASA Satellites See Sandy Become a Hurricane Again and Strong Winds Expand
- Sandy weakened to a Tropical Storm and strengthened back into a hurricane early on Saturday Oct. 26, and its pressure was dropping, meaning that the storm is intensifying as it becomes an extra-tropical storm. NASA's TRMM satellite identified heavy rain falling within the system and NOAA's GOES satellites provided a picture of Sandy's massive size.

NASA's TRMM satellite identified a huge span of moderate rainfall with heaviest rains happening north and east of Sandy's center. NOAA's GOES satellite imagery clearly shows the extent of Sandy's massive cloud cover and the long line of clouds associated with the cold front that stretches from Maine to the Gulf coast.

Sandy continues to merge with a cold front and is creating a monster storm with a massive reach. The combination is expected to bring heavy rainfall and tropical-storm-force sustained winds for a couple of days to the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern U.S. beginning late Sunday. Sandy is truly the "bride of Frankenstorm" because the storm's circulation is over 2,000 miles and the wind field of tropical-storm-force winds is hundreds of miles in diameter. The Weather Channel cited a concern for power outages from Maine to Virginia as a result of this storm.
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Impressive.

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Quoting leftlink:
i think you missed the biggest coastal winter storm, the one which "bombed out just SE of new jersey in 1978, and sat off of nantucket on February 6:

953 mb
Well, the list wasn't intended to be comprehensive; I said I was only listing a few. But which 1978 winter storm do you mean? There were a large number that pollution-cooled year...
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


For the outerbanks this isnt even close to Irene...lol


I was laughing throughout that whole interview..Stephanie Abrams keeps saying this is worst than Irene when they go to her in Delaware but dang if that Dare County official just didnt put a needle in that bubble..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13460
I'm not the first to bring up the issue of what this storm's impact might be on the election ... but the more I think about it, the more likely it seems. I think it is safe to surmise that operatives in both parties are already asking themselves how the event of the storm can be used, and the potential is there that this storm could do for this election what Florida did for the 2000 election.

It's going to be a messy week.
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Quoting ncstorm:
LOL..the Dare County Emergency official is just busting TWC bubble..he was saying this storm is not on the level of Irene..the more the reporter tried to doom the situation, the more he kept saying the outerbanks will be okay..


For the outerbanks this isnt even close to Irene...lol
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Quoting ncstorm:
LOL..the Dare County Emergency official is just busting TWC bubble..he was saying this storm is not on the level of Irene..the more the reporter tried to doom the situation, the more he kept saying the outerbanks will be ok
LMAO.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2179
LOL..the Dare County Emergency official is just busting TWC bubble..he was saying this storm is not on the level of Irene..the more the reporter tried to doom the situation, the more he kept saying the outerbanks will be okay..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13460
Quoting LargoFl:
winds gusting pretty good by me now, some good sized branches down in the street..
aaaaarghh!!!!! It's like I live in the Grand Canyon or something.... I haven't had a gust over 20 mph and Pinellas is getting blown away!
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i think you missed the biggest coastal winter storm, .... oops I had the wrong storm., let me redo this reply.


Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm no expert on European meteorology, so must admit that I don't know whether 955 mb is usual on that side of the pond. But here in the States, such low pressures in non-tropical storms don't occur "frequently". Here's a list of a few memorable nor'easters and their lowest measured pressures:

2011 Halloween nor'easter: 971 mb
December 2010 North American blizzard: 961 mb
1991 Perfect Storm: 972 mb
Groundhog Day gale of 1976: 957 mb
Great Blizzard of 1888: 982 mb

FWIW, the lowest barometric pressure officially recognized in the Lower 48 outside a hurricane or tornado was 955 mb at Canton, NY, in 1913 and Nantucket in 1932. So if Sandy makes landfall as a non-tropical entity (which it should) with a pressure lower than 955 mb (which some models are calling for) it will definitely fit the description of "incredible"--at least the way some define the word. ;-)

(Of course, even if the storm is at 960, its massive size and wide distribution of winds is going to make it one of the most memorable Northeast U.S. storms ever. I think that's the important part to remember.)
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Appears tides on the east coast are currently running up to 2 feet above normal.

Sample




Image for link:

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Quoting SSideBrac:


First I do not know where you live so cannot comment on whether your time would be better spent preparing than complaining.
Your posts sound all too much like those of a "serial complainer" - and probably one who would be front and centre and loudest in the line if you did not receive adequate warning of a possible crisis.
You epitomise the term "complacency" - so if nothing positive to add, then perhaps do not post!
This system has already killed people and caused significant damage - if some hype prevents one further single death - then let them hype away as far as I am concerned.
It's just a troll; ignore it, and it'll have no choice but to hop the short bus back to its hiding space under the bridge...
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning/evening all. A chilly 44 degrees in my part of Louisiana.

I emailed my sister who lives two hours north of NYC to make sure she is paying attention to Sandy, and that my nephew who lives in NJ is, no answer. So, I already know they are like "We'll be fine, no problems." I get so frustrated sometimes...


I also just got off the phone with my sister and I can tell you if we were face to face I would have choked her. I asked her if she had everything she needed and she said "No, I am going to run out tomorrow and grab some things." UGH........Sometimes I dont know how someone so smart can be so dumb!!

We also live 2 hours NW of NYC. Close to the NY, NJ, PA border.
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10m Euro Wind map
48 hours


72 hours


96 hours



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13460
Some very, very dry air around Sandy at the moment. Dry air actually helps extra-tropical systems to rapidly strengthen, and to me, Sandy's inner core is like a hurricane, but its structure is like an extra-tropical system. Wonder what effect it will have.

Link
Link
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I suppose I should say core rather than circulation, since you can still see a lot of the whole bit. Just not the center.
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Wind shear has really been dropping, especially to Sandy's South.

She's also just about got her circulation covered, at least for now. Still looks pretty ugly though.
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Quoting THEYGOOFEDAGAIN:
yesterday it was new jersey and nyc lastg night it was south jersey this morning its now maryland where will it be tonight carolina? i know retail sales have been down in the north east but come on dont panic the whole east coast to go spending


First I do not know where you live so cannot comment on whether your time would be better spent preparing than complaining.
Your posts sound all too much like those of a "serial complainer" - and probably one who would be front and centre and loudest in the line if you did not receive adequate warning of a possible crisis.
You epitomise the term "complacency" - so if nothing positive to add, then perhaps do not post!
This system has already killed people and caused significant damage - if some hype prevents one further single death - then let them hype away as far as I am concerned.
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I remember earlier in the week models showing more intense convection on the western side of the storm, HWIND now verifies that:


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winds gusting pretty good by me now, some good sized branches down in the street..
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Sandy may have many tricks up her sleeve when it comes to intensity..
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2179
Im just glad we wont be getting Sandy in our Virginia.
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TROPICAL STORM SANDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
0900 UTC SAT OCT 27 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO SAINT AUGUSTINE
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF SAINT AUGUSTINE TO
FERNANDINA BEACH
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...GALE...STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 76.7W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 70SW 130NW.
34 KT.......390NE 200SE 170SW 280NW.
12 FT SEAS..510NE 600SE 300SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 76.7W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 76.9W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 29.8N 75.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 100SW 150NW.
34 KT...390NE 240SE 200SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 31.4N 74.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 120SE 150SW 170NW.
34 KT...360NE 270SE 270SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 33.2N 72.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 150SW 150NW.
34 KT...360NE 300SE 300SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 35.7N 71.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 150SW 170NW.
34 KT...360NE 330SE 300SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 40.0N 75.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...360NE 300SE 120SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 41.5N 77.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 43.5N 77.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 76.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Good Morning. Amazing and massive system again this morning. Starting to fill in on the Western flank parallel to the Eastern Seaboard and structure improving in the short-term.

Folks in the mid-Atlantic and NE are keeping a eye on it; have to actually thank TWC and all the major media outlets for staying on top of this one and getting the word out.

Now it's up the folks in the path to stock up on supplies, food, and "blankets" in case power is lost and you rely on electricity for heat in the aftermath/cooldown.

Folks should really make sure your Elder friends and family are watched over and checked on during the duration of the event.
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Quoting Grothar:
Flood inundation map for NYC



Image of 1992 storm

yes they said they could get..3-6 feet of water down in the subways whew
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Quoting yonzabam:



Hardly. Winds are expected to be 80 mph tops. It's not the intensity - it's the sheer size of the thing, the large area that will be affected, and the long duration of the storm that are the issues.

It'll be a historic power outage, I think.
The Marketwatch article to which the OP referred makes a pretty good case for a possible worst-case-scenario being NYC's most intense ever. Not necessarily in terms of wind, of course, but primarily from storm surge flooding for an extended period, perhaps lasting as long as three high tides (including the month's largest).

So much depends on timing, of course, as well as Sandy's strength, exact location, and the rest. But if those entirely possible "worst things" come to pass, Sandy will be one for posterity...
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.