Sandy remains a hurricane, slowly leaving the Bahamas

By: Angela Fritz , 9:28 PM GMT on October 26, 2012

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Reuters reports that the death toll from Sandy in the Caribbean is now up to 41 people as Hurricane Sandy continues its track toward the U.S. East Coast this afternoon, slowly leaving the Bahamas. States of Emergency have been declared in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and New York. The hurricane is just barely still a Category 1 with surface winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 971 mb. Ocean buoys off the coasts of Florida and the Carolinas are recording sustained winds of around 45 mph this afternoon, with gusts steadily increasing and now up to 60 mph. Sandy's rainfall, which is limited to the north and northeast parts of the storm, is reaching eastern Florida, though most of it is staying offshore.

Satellite loops show an asymmetric Sandy, with almost all of the thunderstorm activity on its north side. The hurricane still has a very clear center of surface circulation which you can see on visible and infrared loops. Though the hurricane is leaving the influence of an upper level low pressure area over western Cuba, water vapor imagery shows a large area of dry air being pulled into the storm from the south, which is leading to the lack of thunderstorm activity and contributing to the weakening that Sandy is experiencing right now. The hurricane's tropical storm-force winds now extend 240 miles from the center, and could grow to 400 miles from the center by the time it reaches the East Coast.


Figure 1. Visible/infrared satellite image of Sandy as it leaves the Bahamas this afternoon. The mid-latitude trough, which Sandy will interact with over the next few days, is seen approaching from the northwest. The cold front associated with this trough is draped from upstate New York south to Louisiana, and appears as a line of clouds draped across the Midwest and South in this image.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy

As a tropical cyclone approaches land, the worst storm surge is almost always where the winds are blowing from ocean to shore, where the wind pushes the water toward and onto the shore. In the case of Sandy's potential track, this region is on the north side of the center. In this morning's GFS scenario, Sandy's center passes over eastern Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. This would result in the highest surge north of New York City: Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and possibly Maine. The ECMWF forecast from this morning is a bit further to the south. It's suggesting Sandy's center will meet land in New Jersey. This scenario opens up New York City, Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southern coastal Mass. to the largest surge. In general, the places that will avoid the largest storm surge are those that are south of where the center of the storm makes landfall. The National Hurricane Center's forecast is similar to the ECMWF, but most importantly, its forecast is also to not focus on the exact point of landfall because of the size of the storm, and that widespread impact is expected.

The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts should be prepared for a storm surge no matter their exact location. A large portion of the coast will feel the impact of up to 60 mph winds and heavy rain. According to the most recent H*Wind analysis from the Hurricane Research Division is that storm surge has a destructive potential of 4.8 out of 6.0, which is a slight increase from previous analyses. Wind damage potential is holding steady around 2.3 out of 6.0. NOAA's HPC is forecasting rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and possibly more in coastal locations close to the core of the storm. Widespread power outages from Maine south to Virginia are likely, due to the combination of long-lived gale-force winds, leaves on trees, and rain that will moisten the soil and possibly increase the chances of falling trees. Snow in the Appalachians is also possible as the intense moisture meets the cold air being pulled south by the mid-latitude trough.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for the Atlantic shows a large area of unusually warm waters up to 9°F above average off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast.

Sandy to feed off near-record warm waters off the mid-Atlantic coast
During September 2012, ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic coast in the 5x10° latitude-longitude box between 35 - 40°N, 65 - 75° W were 2.3°F (1.3°C) above average, according to the UK Met Office. This is the 2nd greatest departure from average for ocean temperatures in this region since reliable ocean temperature measurements began over a century ago (all-time record: 2.0°C above average in September 1947.) These unusually warm waters have persisted into October, and will enable Sandy to pull more energy from the ocean than a typical October hurricane. The warm waters will also help increase Sandy's rains, since more water vapor will evaporate into the air from a warm ocean. I expect Sandy will dump the heaviest October rains on record over a large swath of the mid-Atlantic and New England.

Hurricane rains and climate change
Hurricanes are expected to dump 20% more rain in their cores by the year 2100, according to modeling studies (Knutson et al., 2010). This occurs since a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, which can then condense into heavier rains. Furthermore, the condensation process releases heat energy (latent heat), which invigorates the storm, making its updrafts stronger and creating even more rain. We may already be seeing an increase in rainfall from hurricanes due to a warmer atmosphere. A 2010 study by Kunkel et al. "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that although there is no evidence for a long-term increase in North American mainland land-falling tropical cyclones (which include both hurricanes and tropical storms), the number of heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008. As I discussed in a 2011 post "Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?", an increase in heavy precipitation events in the 21st Century due to climate change is going to be a big problem for a flood control system designed for the 20th Century's climate.


Figure 3. Time series of the 15-yr running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of the tropical cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and the associated 15-yr total of U.S. landfalling hurricanes from Atlantic HURDAT hurricane data base, from 1895 - 2008 (blue). Note the steep rise in heavy precipitation events from tropical cyclones over the past 20 years, which has not been accompanied by a corresponding increase in landfalling hurricanes. Image credit: Kunkel et al., 2010, Geophysical Research Letters.

Angela Fritz and Jeff Masters

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Quoting wxmod:
China pollution out of control. MODIS satellite photo today


Yes, we know China has a pollution problem. They have done so for to many years to count. Even at the 2008 Bei-jing Olympics the removal of 1mil cars didn't help much.
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1055. hydrus
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One positive note
Sandy is bringing beautiful weather to Southwest Florida. It's a perfect day (sunny, humidity is down, and temps in the 70s - 80s and a nice northerly breeze)
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1053. LargoFl
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1052. hydrus
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Yes just look at the Satellite Sandy appears to be organizing again rather quickly this morning. Wouldn't rule out it being tropical as the Gulf-stream is going to be feeding this system almost to the end. I would say not good news for those up north IMO. not a meteorologist.
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1050. wxmod
China pollution out of control. MODIS satellite photo today

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1049. LargoFl
Category 1 hurricanes inundate just about all of the immediate south shore of the Island, including the north side of Great South Bay locations and both sides of the north and south forks.
Montauk Highway (RT. 27A) is completely covered by flood waters during a Category 3 hurricane. Therefore, this road would be considered impassable during the storm.
The highest storm surges (Category 4) would occur in the following regions:
Amityville Harbor - 29 feet
Atlantic Beach & Long Beach areas - 24 to 28 feet
South Oyster Bay, Middle Bay, & East Bay areas - 24 to 28 feet
Montauk Point is completely cut off from rest of south fork during a category 1 storm.
Much of the north and south forks are entirely under water during a category 3 hurricane.
A category 4 hurricane inundates the entire towns of: Amityville, Lindenhurst, Babylon, West Islip, East Islip, Bayshore, Gilgo Beach, Cedar Beach, Great South Beach, Fair Harbor, Cherry Grove, Cupsogue, Westhampton Beach, Watermill Beach, Wainscott Beach, Plum Island, Gardiner's Island, Orient, Shelter Island (except for a few high points), Greenport, North Haven, Amagansett Beach, Napeague Beach, Montauk, Woodmere, Valley Stream, Linbrook, Long Beach, Atlantic Beach, Freeport, Merrick, Wantagh, Lido Beach, Jones Beach, and Tobay Beach.
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Quoting hurricane23:
Posting again..

Iam trying to use the animated feature from CIMSS with sandy but for some odd reason my labtop keeps saving it as a bitman (BMP) image which is not animated. Also trying to save images from the ssd noaa site and it does the same.

Any help is much appreciated.



What I know about it:


All animations from CIMSS are saved in this file:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/movie. gif


You could try loading it to an image site such as photobucket, etc and go from there.

Need to be quick though, if anyone else captures an animation on CIMSS it will overwrite what you animated with their selections.
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 271459
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SANDY SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY NEAR THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 76.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...GALE...STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS SANDY HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...
HOWEVER...A LONGER-TERM MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS
FORECAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS
MORNING AND WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450
MILES...725 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA IN THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

FL EAST COAST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...1 TO 2 FT
NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBERMARLE SNDS...3 TO 5 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND DELAWARE BAY...4 TO 8 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BY SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Sandy remains at 75mph in the new advisory, pressure 958mb.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7782
1045. LargoFl
someone asked about storm surge and Long island.................Category 1 hurricanes inundate just about all of the immediate south shore of the Island, including the north side of Great South Bay locations and both sides of the north and south forks.
Montauk Highway (RT. 27A) is completely covered by flood waters during a Category 3 hurricane. Therefore, this road would be considered impassable during the storm.
The highest storm surges (Category 4) would occur in the following regions:
Amityville Harbor - 29 feet
Atlantic Beach & Long Beach areas - 24 to 28 feet
South Oyster Bay, Middle Bay, & East Bay areas - 24 to 28 feet
Montauk Point is completely cut off from rest of south fork during a category 1 storm.
Much of the north and south forks are entirely under water during a category 3 hurricane.
A category 4 hurricane inundates the entire towns of: Amityville, Lindenhurst, Babylon, West Islip, East Islip, Bayshore, Gilgo Beach, Cedar Beach, Great South Beach, Fair Harbor, Cherry Grove, Cupsogue, Westhampton Beach, Watermill Beach, Wainscott Beach, Plum Island, Gardiner's Island, Orient, Shelter Island (except for a few high points), Greenport, North Haven, Amagansett Beach, Napeague Beach, Montauk, Woodmere, Valley Stream, Linbrook, Long Beach, Atlantic Beach, Freeport, Merrick, Wantagh, Lido Beach, Jones Beach, and Tobay Beach.
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anybody underestimating this storm could be making a big mistake. Its not about categories, its about total rainfall and size of this storm. Everyone in its path should stay on the safe side.
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Quoting Carnoustie:
she is staring to look like a hurricane again,not good.


A large one...

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I just looked up the "northeast blizzard of 78" which bombed out off the coast of nj. Turns out that the central pressure was only around 988mb. A midwestern blizzard that took a more northerly track across the midwest, about 10 days before, is also known as the "blizzard of 78". The latter storm had the pressure of 953mb. Of course, when growing up, the northeast blizzard was the biggest snowstorm on record, and the part of MA I am in didn't even get snow from the midwest storm.



Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm no expert on European meteorology, so must admit that I don't know whether 955 mb is usual on that side of the pond. But here in the States, such low pressures in non-tropical storms don't occur "frequently". Here's a list of a few memorable nor'easters and their lowest measured pressures:

2011 Halloween nor'easter: 971 mb
December 2010 North American blizzard: 961 mb
1991 Perfect Storm: 972 mb
Groundhog Day gale of 1976: 957 mb
Great Blizzard of 1888: 982 mb

FWIW, the lowest barometric pressure officially recognized in the Lower 48 outside a hurricane or tornado was 955 mb at Canton, NY, in 1913 and Nantucket in 1932. So if Sandy makes landfall as a non-tropical entity (which it should) with a pressure lower than 955 mb (which some models are calling for) it will definitely fit the description of "incredible"--at least the way some define the word. ;-)

(Of course, even if the storm is at 960, its massive size and wide distribution of winds is going to make it one of the most memorable Northeast U.S. storms ever. I think that's the important part to remember.)
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she is staring to look like a hurricane again,not good.
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1039. guygee
Quoting clamshell:
...Rabid news reporting is not as entertaining as the reporters might think, especially when peoples lives are in the mix, now and in the future. Deny it all they might, they have an obligation to report such news responsibly and in somewhat subdued terms as well.
The large number of apostles and disciples of the late Milton Friedman would argue that their only moral responsibility is to make as large a profit as possible. That concept has been incorporated into the national religion.

I dissent from them and I agree with you.
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Mandatory evacuation ordered for Fire Island (NY) by 2 pm Sunday.
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1037. K8eCane
no advisory yet?
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1036. LargoFl
How many pics are we going to see come next week like this
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Quoting Dakster:


What is that? To bring a change of clean underwear?


LOL.
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Sandy rapid scan.... awesome.......

Link
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Hurricane Sandy's wind field is about 450 miles from the center... that's a large wind field, folks.



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1032. hydrus
78 hours..
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URNT15 KNHC 271444
AF302 1518A SANDY HDOB 34 20121027
143430 2742N 07439W 8429 01345 9848 +157 +148 238073 074 051 002 00
143500 2741N 07437W 8441 01338 9856 +154 +149 238075 076 048 002 00
143530 2739N 07436W 8432 01349 9861 +151 +147 237076 077 048 002 00
143600 2738N 07434W 8427 01356 9863 +149 +145 240082 084 048 001 00
143630 2736N 07433W 8432 01353 9868 +140 +140 241078 083 045 005 05
143700 2736N 07431W 8428 01362 9872 +147 +143 240075 076 /// /// 03
143730 2737N 07428W 8429 01358 9868 +152 +139 234076 077 048 001 03
143800 2739N 07427W 8414 01372 9867 +148 +140 230077 077 048 002 00
143830 2741N 07426W 8428 01352 9859 +154 +141 225074 077 048 002 00
143900 2744N 07425W 8429 01349 9859 +140 +140 225075 076 047 000 01
143930 2747N 07424W 8430 01347 9856 +149 +145 228074 076 048 002 00
144000 2750N 07424W 8426 01348 9855 +140 +140 226071 073 048 001 01
144030 2752N 07423W 8430 01342 9851 +140 +140 225071 072 052 001 01
144100 2755N 07422W 8430 01337 9848 +150 +150 225071 073 050 003 01
144130 2758N 07422W 8430 01337 9838 +162 +155 224069 070 055 001 00
144200 2800N 07421W 8431 01336 9832 +170 +152 224069 070 051 001 03
144230 2803N 07420W 8429 01333 9827 +174 +153 225067 068 051 002 03
144300 2806N 07419W 8433 01327 9826 +173 +155 225066 067 051 001 03
144330 2808N 07419W 8430 01328 9827 +168 +157 225066 066 050 002 00
144400 2811N 07418W 8429 01331 9824 +171 +156 223063 066 049 002 00

Flight level wind: 84 kt (SE quadrant)
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1029. Dakster
Quoting LargoFl:
What People Forget about Land falling Hurricanes......


What is that? To bring a change of clean underwear?
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1028. LargoFl
What People Forget about Land falling Hurricanes......
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Posting again..

Iam trying to use the animated feature from CIMSS with sandy but for some odd reason my labtop keeps saving it as a bitman (BMP) image which is not animated. Also trying to save images from the ssd noaa site and it does the same.

Any help is much appreciated.

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GOES 14 Super Rapid Scan Visible 1 minute images, takes a while to load, at least on my slow *** system.
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URNT12 KWBC 271437
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012
A. 27/14:09:35Z
B. 29 deg 07 min N
076 deg 03 min W
C. NA
D. 63 kt
E. 298 deg 17 nm
F. 019 deg 47 kt
G. 299 deg 100 nm
H. 965
I. 8 C / 3678 m
J. 10 C / 3674
K. 8 / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13 / NA
O. 1 / 2
P. NOAA2 1418A SANDY OB 36
MAX FL WIND 68 KT SW QUAD 12:49:37Z
MAX FL TEMP 11 C 285 / 32 NM FROM FL CNTR
SONDE SPLASH WINDS 080/17 KTS
SFMR WIND MAX INBOUND IN HEAVY PRECIP
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1024. NCWatch
Quoting ncstorm:
for anyone interested in monitoring the wind speeds of the Buoys on the East Coast

from Henry Margusity
Those winds shown on the Buoys way away from the center are an indication of the wind field spreading out and the danger that is coming.



Thanks for the site...very interesting
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Found thanks anyway NRT for responding to message.

www.simuawips.com
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1022. Dakster
Quoting barbamz:


Mission No 16 into Isaac is always showing up on my Google Earth, too. I've deleted it several times, but in vain. Must be some revenant from upcoming Halloween ;-)


It is the haunting of Ms. Hornbaker...
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Stunning image of Sandy overnight from the "visible" Day-Night Band on the NPP satellite.
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Sandy is bringing rain to coastal North Carolina

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Mornin 23,

You would have to be more specific on what that station would have as far as content, right now I would have no idea what station and whether or not I have a link.


Um it was a live AWIPS workstation (Sumu) something it was put together for free to public.
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1018. barbamz
Quoting K8eCane:


That says storm name ISAAC


Mission No 16 into Isaac is always showing up on my Google Earth, too. I've deleted it several times, but in vain. Must be some revenant from upcoming Halloween ;-)
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1017. Wiebel
To those who are posting and looking at SLOSH forecasts:

These model runs lack accuracy because there is not that many data to calibrate them on, on this stretch of coast. They do give an estimate though. This accounts for any surge model!

Judging the size of this system, combined with its forward speed and the large continental shelve I wouldnt be surprised if we get a cat 3 similar surge (although you shouldnt use cats in surge).

I would not be surprised if the highest water marks exceed 10ft, if the system unfolds the way predicted.

The GDACS models highest surge elevation is 2.9m (10ft). Average in the "hitzone" is 6ft.
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Highest flight winds I can find...

Time: 11:19:30Z
Coordinates: 27.6167N 77.9833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.4 mb (~ 24.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,337 meters (~ 4,386 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 985.7 mb (~ 29.11 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 316° at 90 knots (From the NW at ~ 103.5 mph)
Air Temp: 13.0°C* (~ 55.4°F*)
Dew Pt: 13.0°C* (~ 55.4°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 91 knots (~ 104.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 57 knots (~ 65.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 10 mm/hr (~ 0.39 in/h
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Quoting SSideBrac:


First I do not know where you live so cannot comment on whether your time would be better spent preparing than complaining.
Your posts sound all too much like those of a "serial complainer" - and probably one who would be front and centre and loudest in the line if you did not receive adequate warning of a possible crisis.
You epitomise the term "complacency" - so if nothing positive to add, then perhaps do not post!
This system has already killed people and caused significant damage - if some hype prevents one further single death - then let them hype away as far as I am concerned.


Actually, THEYGOOFEDAGAIN is closer to the truth that it might first appear.

I believe that THEYGOOFEDAGAIN is trying to caution everybody to keep the hysteria to a minimum and report the news in more restrained tones.

Calling the storm by such hysterical names like Frankenstorm will only fuel the fires of resentment when folks discover that they spent money they didn't have on things they later find that they really didn't need.

The next time they might hear the warnings and say to themselves...Yeah right, just like last time. Forget about it, I aint gonna buy nothin this time....and then experience a direct hit.

Rabid news reporting is not as entertaining as the reporters might think, especially when peoples lives are in the mix, now and in the future. Deny it all they might, they have an obligation to report such news responsibly and in somewhat subdued terms as well.



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Sandy is still a hurricane according to the first fix.

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph)

The second fix only had 70 mph though...
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Quoting hurricane23:


NRT good morning..

By any chance do you have the link to that free weather station online that was created by a met? Had it bookmarked but somehow erased.

thanks


Mornin 23,

You would have to be more specific on what that station would have as far as content, right now I would have no idea what station and whether or not I have a link.
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Quoting Matt1989:

Bro it's a borderline TS/Hurricane choking on dry air... It's not a category 5 we are talking about here.


There will be extended power outages, maybe not in N Carolina, but certainly further north.
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1011. guygee
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, the list wasn't intended to be comprehensive; I said I was only listing a few. But which 1978 winter storm do you mean? There were a large number that pollution-cooled year...
Right, I was thinking of the January 26, 1978 blizzard. I was living in NE Ohio, and at the height of the storm I went for a drive with four other friends out on some country roads. We were well-dressed, and every time we got stuck we had enough manpower to push ourselves out. We also found a couple in their car trapped and pushed them out too. Irresponsible? Probably. Such is youth and it was fun.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
NWS Mount Holly ‏@NWS_MountHolly
Here is today's briefing package with the latest information about Hurricane Sandy. #njwx #pawx #mdwx #dewx http://ow.ly/eOALz
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Why is that "safe to surmise that operatives in both parties are already asking themselves how the event of the storm can be used"? That seems a tad cynical... I mean, both sides are likely asking how the storm will impact their campaign schedules, and/or how it might influence the election itself. But that's quite a bit different than actively plotting to "use" the storm to gain a political advantage.

My guess: the side currently in power will do its best not to make any missteps lest those mistakes be pounced upon as the current President's "Katrina" (already a meme in some circles), while the other side will be hoping and praying there are missteps by the current administration that can be leveraged to discredit the President. Neither of those seems particularly underhanded; it's just the way the American political system works.


cynical or not...having once been one of those operatives...I can assure you they are all noodling through how to twist this to their respective advantage...

This non-partisan message is brought to you by The Laws of Nature
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1008. ncstorm
from the HPC short range discussion

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
RESULT IN A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN IN ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288
1007. K8eCane
Quoting K8eCane:


That says storm name ISAAC



We are up to the S named storm
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My husband was just activated by the Red Cross to help setting up evacuation shelters.

I am sure most people here realize this but I just wanted to say to everyone in the path of the storm, know where your local shelters are going to be and if you have pets what their policy is going to be, even if you are not in an evacuation zone. You may have to leave your home unexpectedly and don't want to be wandering around in the storm trying to figure out where to go.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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