Sandy remains a hurricane, slowly leaving the Bahamas

By: Angela Fritz , 9:28 PM GMT on October 26, 2012

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Reuters reports that the death toll from Sandy in the Caribbean is now up to 41 people as Hurricane Sandy continues its track toward the U.S. East Coast this afternoon, slowly leaving the Bahamas. States of Emergency have been declared in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and New York. The hurricane is just barely still a Category 1 with surface winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 971 mb. Ocean buoys off the coasts of Florida and the Carolinas are recording sustained winds of around 45 mph this afternoon, with gusts steadily increasing and now up to 60 mph. Sandy's rainfall, which is limited to the north and northeast parts of the storm, is reaching eastern Florida, though most of it is staying offshore.

Satellite loops show an asymmetric Sandy, with almost all of the thunderstorm activity on its north side. The hurricane still has a very clear center of surface circulation which you can see on visible and infrared loops. Though the hurricane is leaving the influence of an upper level low pressure area over western Cuba, water vapor imagery shows a large area of dry air being pulled into the storm from the south, which is leading to the lack of thunderstorm activity and contributing to the weakening that Sandy is experiencing right now. The hurricane's tropical storm-force winds now extend 240 miles from the center, and could grow to 400 miles from the center by the time it reaches the East Coast.


Figure 1. Visible/infrared satellite image of Sandy as it leaves the Bahamas this afternoon. The mid-latitude trough, which Sandy will interact with over the next few days, is seen approaching from the northwest. The cold front associated with this trough is draped from upstate New York south to Louisiana, and appears as a line of clouds draped across the Midwest and South in this image.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy

As a tropical cyclone approaches land, the worst storm surge is almost always where the winds are blowing from ocean to shore, where the wind pushes the water toward and onto the shore. In the case of Sandy's potential track, this region is on the north side of the center. In this morning's GFS scenario, Sandy's center passes over eastern Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. This would result in the highest surge north of New York City: Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and possibly Maine. The ECMWF forecast from this morning is a bit further to the south. It's suggesting Sandy's center will meet land in New Jersey. This scenario opens up New York City, Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southern coastal Mass. to the largest surge. In general, the places that will avoid the largest storm surge are those that are south of where the center of the storm makes landfall. The National Hurricane Center's forecast is similar to the ECMWF, but most importantly, its forecast is also to not focus on the exact point of landfall because of the size of the storm, and that widespread impact is expected.

The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts should be prepared for a storm surge no matter their exact location. A large portion of the coast will feel the impact of up to 60 mph winds and heavy rain. According to the most recent H*Wind analysis from the Hurricane Research Division is that storm surge has a destructive potential of 4.8 out of 6.0, which is a slight increase from previous analyses. Wind damage potential is holding steady around 2.3 out of 6.0. NOAA's HPC is forecasting rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and possibly more in coastal locations close to the core of the storm. Widespread power outages from Maine south to Virginia are likely, due to the combination of long-lived gale-force winds, leaves on trees, and rain that will moisten the soil and possibly increase the chances of falling trees. Snow in the Appalachians is also possible as the intense moisture meets the cold air being pulled south by the mid-latitude trough.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for the Atlantic shows a large area of unusually warm waters up to 9°F above average off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast.

Sandy to feed off near-record warm waters off the mid-Atlantic coast
During September 2012, ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic coast in the 5x10° latitude-longitude box between 35 - 40°N, 65 - 75° W were 2.3°F (1.3°C) above average, according to the UK Met Office. This is the 2nd greatest departure from average for ocean temperatures in this region since reliable ocean temperature measurements began over a century ago (all-time record: 2.0°C above average in September 1947.) These unusually warm waters have persisted into October, and will enable Sandy to pull more energy from the ocean than a typical October hurricane. The warm waters will also help increase Sandy's rains, since more water vapor will evaporate into the air from a warm ocean. I expect Sandy will dump the heaviest October rains on record over a large swath of the mid-Atlantic and New England.

Hurricane rains and climate change
Hurricanes are expected to dump 20% more rain in their cores by the year 2100, according to modeling studies (Knutson et al., 2010). This occurs since a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, which can then condense into heavier rains. Furthermore, the condensation process releases heat energy (latent heat), which invigorates the storm, making its updrafts stronger and creating even more rain. We may already be seeing an increase in rainfall from hurricanes due to a warmer atmosphere. A 2010 study by Kunkel et al. "Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that although there is no evidence for a long-term increase in North American mainland land-falling tropical cyclones (which include both hurricanes and tropical storms), the number of heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008. As I discussed in a 2011 post "Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?", an increase in heavy precipitation events in the 21st Century due to climate change is going to be a big problem for a flood control system designed for the 20th Century's climate.


Figure 3. Time series of the 15-yr running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of the tropical cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and the associated 15-yr total of U.S. landfalling hurricanes from Atlantic HURDAT hurricane data base, from 1895 - 2008 (blue). Note the steep rise in heavy precipitation events from tropical cyclones over the past 20 years, which has not been accompanied by a corresponding increase in landfalling hurricanes. Image credit: Kunkel et al., 2010, Geophysical Research Letters.

Angela Fritz and Jeff Masters

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Quoting TomballTXPride:
I honestly don't think the NHC will downgrade her back to a TS again, even if conditions aren't technically fully supporting a hurricane. My reasoning is TS Sandy sounds less formidable to the public and also she's expected to strengthen again due to an extra shot of baroclinic energy within the next 24 hours. Just a thought though.
You may be right. Within minutes of this morning's announcement that Sandy was no longer a hurricane, a number of headlines appeared along the lines of, "Sandy Now Just a Tropical Storm", or "Sandy May Be Less Of A Threat", or "Weaker Sandy May be Good News For The Northeast". IOW, the typical it's-all-about-the-headlines-not-the-veracity-of-t he-content stuff that passes for "journalism" these days.
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1205. atris
Quoting Maryland1:


I agree with you. Even if she isn't technically a hurricane, it makes little sense to downgrade her, if the energy is going to make a bigger monster in 20 hours. If she holds close enough, from a public safety standpoint, I am just fine with that.


Completely Agree with you
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Myrtle beach cam Link

Jacksonville Beach Pier cam Link
Looking choppy.

Per the 11am NHC advisory, 12-foot seas from Sandy now cover a diameter of over 1,000 miles. A huge storm.

Goodnight all, Stay safe and prepare for Sandy
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I disagree, if anything the convective structure has taken on a more tropical look than this morning.


I don't think the strength of the storm has changed any, but the structure is continuing to evolve. It's pretty much becoming more hybrid with every passing NOAA update. Though convection is on a downward trend as MAweatherboy1 pointed out, but what REED and CyberTeddy have pointed out is that shear has dropped significantly and you can see this by satellite presentation as Sandy's western flank as improved its outflow and expanded both west and southwest a bit. Also what convection is taking place, be it on a slight downward trend, is now much closely located to the center now versus the last 2 days.

I think we will see Sandy organize more tonight into tomorrow morning as it rides the Gulf Stream waiting for her steroids shot.
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Quoting indianrivguy:
That front is pushing Sandy ENE already

I agree, the NHC mentioned in their last discussion that an eastward/ENE jog was occurring, but I'd call it more than a jog at this point:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8049
Quoting ncstorm:


Hey Wash..looks like the party is still on as planned?
Correct.Still having a good time.

Speaking of parties there was plenty of hurricane parties in the bars yestrday night in downtown D.C.I went to one.Hey I was getting free shots so no complaints here.
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Sandy has the appearance of a subtropical storm, but the winds of a warm-core hurricane. Compare her current appearance to Subtropical Storm Beryl earlier this season:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32865
1199. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
FXCN31 CWHX 271200
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.53 AM ADT
SATURDAY 27 OCTOBER 2012.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT, TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 N
AND LONGITUDE 76.4 W, ABOUT 191 NAUTICAL MILES OR 354 KM NORTHEAST OF
FREEPORT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS (111 KM/H)
AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 969 MB. SANDY IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 9
KNOTS (17 KM/H).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
OCT 27 9.00 AM 29.0N 76.4W 969 60 111
OCT 27 9.00 PM 30.6N 75.0W 969 60 111
OCT 28 9.00 AM 32.3N 73.3W 969 60 111
OCT 28 9.00 PM 34.5N 72.0W 964 65 120
OCT 29 9.00 AM 36.8N 72.6W 960 65 120
OCT 29 9.00 PM 38.9N 74.5W 965 60 111
OCT 30 9.00 AM 40.4N 76.0W 970 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 30 9.00 PM 41.1N 77.0W 975 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 31 9.00 AM 42.0N 77.5W 980 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 31 9.00 PM 43.0N 77.5W 985 35 65 POST-TROPICAL


3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

TROPICAL STORM SANDY HAS INTENSE CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTRE. BUOY B41010 ABOUT 80 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF
THE CENTRE HAS BEEN REPORTING NORTHERLY GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE
FOR THE PAST 5 HOURS NEAR THIS DEEP CONVECTION. SFMR AND DROPSONDE
DATA INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF 55 KNOT WINDS IN THIS CONVECTION TO THE
WEST AS WELL. WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WELL WITHIN THE CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF SANDY'S
CENTRE.
SANDY HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SPEED ESTIMATED AT 9
KNOTS. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT
SANDY HAS WEAKENED TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. HOWEVER, THE WIND
FIELD IS GETTING LARGER AS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT DATA.



B. PROGNOSTIC

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SANDY TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS
DEEP LAYER TROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND CAUSE SANDY TO TAKE A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE US EAST COAST. AT THIS TIME SANDY IS EXPECTED TO
REINTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING. PHASE
SPACE PROGNOSIS INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH SANDY WILL BE RECEIVING
BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST, THE STORM WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
CORE UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND. LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO GO INLAND AS A LARGE POWERFUL CYCLONE WHILE
BECOMING POST-TROPICAL.

ON TUESDAY, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT POST-TROPICAL SANDY WILL
BECOME CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND IN THE
UNITED STATES. POST-TROPICAL SANDY IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL BE GREATLY WEAKENED AND WILL
THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE UPPER LOW.

VERY STRONG WINDS AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS POST-TROPICAL
SANDY APPROACHES. IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY AS A BAND OF RAIN MOVES NORTHWARD
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF SANDY'S CENTRE.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
27/12Z 390 215 180 275 40 50 80 135 0 0 0 0
28/00Z 375 255 235 270 65 105 125 160 0 0 0 0
28/12Z 360 285 285 270 80 110 150 160 0 0 0 0
29/00Z 360 315 300 285 105 110 150 160 50 50 20 30
29/12Z 360 325 255 235 130 130 115 130 50 50 20 30
30/00Z 360 310 165 100 145 145 40 45 0 0 0 0
30/12Z 360 300 200 100 150 150 0 0 0 0 0 0
31/00Z 360 300 200 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
31/12Z 300 300 200 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
01/00Z 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


END/COUTURIER/HATT

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
1198. redux
i live downtown bmore : /

fortunately, im kinda up on a hill...maybe 50 feet above sea level? 4th floor in a hundred year old masonry and steel hotel?
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BDAwx: Remember that although tropical storm force winds extend up to 450miles away from the center, not everywhere between the storm and 450miles will have tropical storm force winds. These winds will probably be in bands far removed from the center.
1117 TropicalAnalystwx13: No. Buoys are showing they literally extend over 400 miles out from the center of Sandy.

I think what BDAwx is referring to is that, simplisticly, the windfield is egg-shaped with the center skewed toward the left* of the "big end" at the bottom*... and not a circle equidistant around the center. Then there is the rest of the surrounding weather (atmospheric conditions) that distorts the basic egg-shape.
Hence the "TropicalStorm-force winds extend up to 450miles from the center."

* left and bottom in relation to the storm's travel-direction with the top being the direction of travel
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1196. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Information Statements
WOCN31 CWHX 271334 CCA
Tropical cyclone information statement corrected by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada
At 10:34 AM ADT Saturday 27 October 2012
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island
New Brunswick
Southern Quebec
Southern Ontario.

For hurricane Sandy.

The next statement will be issued by 3:00 PM ADT.

Based on recent reconnaissance information Sandy has regained
Hurricane strength. Sandy will be reaching the East Coast of
The United States on Monday. A wide range of impacts are
Likely across parts of Eastern Canada.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
1. Summary of basic information at 9.00 AM ADT.

Location: 28.8north 76.8west about 350 kilometres northeast of
Freeport Bahamas.

Maximum sustained winds: 120 km/h.

Present movement: north 17 km/h

Minimum central pressure: 960 MB

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Sandy is currently north of the Bahamas and is moving
north-northeastward. The winds associated with Sandy have
Diminished somewhat since yesterday but remain well in excess of 100
km/h. During the weekend Sandy is forecast to continue to track
north or northeastward while remaining at hurricane strength. Sandy
will gradually lose some of its tropical characteristics during the
next few days. On Monday Sandy is expected to take a turn to the
northwest and begin interacting with an approaching trough from the
west. Current indications are that Sandy will strengthen and move
inland on the United States East Coast late Monday as a very large
and powerful storm. There are various factors influencing the
evolution of the storm. As a result there is still a relatively
High degree of uncertainty in the impacts of the storm.

Based on the current forecast scenario, Southern and Eastern Ontario
and Western Quebec are likely to see the most rainfall from this
system with total amounts by Tuesday evening possibly reaching the
50 to 100 millimetre range which would be typical for post-tropical
weather systems. Heavy rain could also affect parts of the
Maritimes. The precipitation could mix with or turn into snow over
parts of South-Central Ontario and extreme Western Quebec as
temperatures near the freezing mark north and west of the storm.
Most areas will likely also be subject to strong winds with gusts
around 100 km/h possible. Very strong winds will also affect
Central and Western Quebec. Gusty winds can also be expected in the
Maritimes. People living in these areas are urged to pay close
attention to messages from the Canadian Hurricane Centre and local
weather forecasts and possible future warnings throughout
The weekend.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gale force winds are expected to spread to Canadian waters well in
advance of Sandy reaching the United States coastline later on
Monday. Gales are expected on Monday over the Great Lakes, the St
Lawrence seaway and western Maritimes marine waters.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

END/HATT/ROBICHAUD/COUTURIER

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting TomballTXPride:
I honestly don't think the NHC will downgrade her back to a TS again, even if conditions aren't technically fully supporting a hurricane. My reasoning is TS Sandy sounds less formidable to the public and also she's expected to strengthen again due to an extra shot of baroclinic energy within the next 24 hours. Just a thought though.


I agree with you. Even if she isn't technically a hurricane, it makes little sense to downgrade her, if the energy is going to make a bigger monster in 20 hours. If she holds close enough, from a public safety standpoint, I am just fine with that.
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Quoting reedzone:


I disagree.. She looked worse yesterday in my opinion.. Shear has also dropped to 20-30 knots... Dry air seems to be the only thing currently weakening her. The baroclinic process of strengthening to begin in 24 hours. I believe Sandy will remain a Hurricane by 2 p.m.


She looked horrible yesterday. Definitely has become better organized since then.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32865
1193. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
WOCN11 CWTO 271531
Special weather statement
Updated by Environment Canada
At 11:31 AM EDT Saturday 27 October 2012.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Special weather statement for:
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Haliburton
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Algonquin
Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

Wet, windy and wild weather likely beginning late Monday.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==

The remnants of hurricane Sandy will probably arrive late Monday as a
large and powerful post tropical fall storm over Southern Ontario.
It will likely track from the Atlantic ocean across the mid Atlantic
states then take an unusual path towards the Lower Great Lakes.

If the storm curves towards the Eastern Seaboard, which a consensus
of numerous computer weather models suggests, there is little doubt
the Northeastern United States will take the brunt of the storm.
But there is also the potential for significant impacts in Southern
and Eastern Ontario too. Significant rainfall appears likely late
Monday into Tuesday. Strong and gusty winds will also accompany this
storm if it takes this path. The storm will likely weaken later
Tuesday and on Halloween, but it will remain cool, damp and may
Still be somewhat windy for the trick or treaters.

A narrow band of wet snow is possible over the Haliburton Highlands
and the higher ground southwest of Georgian Bay. It may be the first
measurable snowfall of the season if temperatures flirt with the
freezing mark, but it doesn'T appear to be significant at this time.

A complicating factor is the presence of a stalled front now over
Southern Ontario. Post-tropical storms interacting with fronts can
produce significant rainfall. Persistent rain is forecast near this
front for the two or three days leading up to the arrival of Sandy.
It may amount to 20 to 30 mm or more over this period, especially
across Niagara, southcentral Ontario and north to Georgian Bay.
An additional 30 to 50 mm is possible with Sandy with excessive
amounts of 50 to 100 mm not out of the question. The forecast track
would also produce widespread 50 to 70 km/h strong winds likely
across Southern Ontario beginning later Monday. Occasional severe
gusts to 100 km/h are also likely, as well as storm force winds on
the Great Lakes. The combination of sodden ground, strong winds and
some residual leaves on trees will likely lead to areas of power
outages due to fallen limbs and some downed trees on snapped wires.

It is important to put this storm in perspective. The main reason it
is getting considerable press is the forecast intensity by various
weather models, as well as the heavily-populated Northeastern United
States that would feel its greatest impact. Most weather models are
forecasting the storm achieving an unprecedented low central pressure
as it comes ashore late Monday. Generally speaking, the lower the
pressure: the more intense the winds and rain around the storm.
It's possible the models are overdoing the storm strength. But even
if that is true, it may still be a significant and memorable
Fall storm to reckon with.

More information can be found in the WOCN31 CWHX tropical cyclone
information statement updated by the Canadian Hurricane Centre of
Environment Canada.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

END/ASHTON/KUHN/OSPC

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141


Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8049
That front is pushing Sandy ENE already
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Thanks post 1150 it is important that everone  needs to get prepare for the storm.im from pensacola and ivan was not no joke. Im live in alabama now thank god. But anyone that r n d storms path please take it seriously, allthough i would love be in the moutains by now.
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Quoting Articuno:

It's both. You in the baltimore area? I am in pasadena.


Yep, Northeast Baltimore City here.
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Quoting BaltOCane:


Based on my almost 30 years of living in this region and all the storms I've gone through, it's pretty typical for the people here (including myself) to jump on a storm early and buy supplies a bit farther in advance.
it happens every snow storm, and I mean EVERY snow storm (from 2" to 2') and it's been happening with this and Irene last year.
I don't know if it's resorcefulness or panic.

It's both. You in the baltimore area? I am in pasadena.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2556
Quoting Progster:


The predicted "left hook" after 48h is interesting. This doesn't happen too often and when it does, its always a consequence of rapid deepening. When baroclinic storms rapidly deepen, they alter track to head for the lowest heights, which of course are to the left in the longwave upper trough (in the northern hemisphere). Rapid deepening is usually forced not only by jet-level divergence, but also by strong convection. All the forcing elements for rapid deepening are there; the jet, the SST's along Sandy's track, and the increasing baroclinicty of the environment after 48h.

When I was working the marine forecast desk in Environment Canada's office in Nova Scotia, I watched with fascination one night (this was in the early 90's) as an upper trof embedded in the long wave trof to the west, came off the US coast near Norfolk, Va. There was only high-level cloud with this particular shortwave. Within 6 hours, convection blossomed in the divergent area to the NW of the upper trof, (right over the gulf stream), pressures fell rapidly in the area, and a few hours after that the surface cyclone that had rapidly developed did a 180 , bringing 50 kt winds to Norfolk, with basically zero warning. There's the left hook at work. Now, it could be that all the models are suffering from runaway convective feedback, and the deepening and abrupt track change are overdone. But all the elements are there...its going to be a show.

11:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 27

Location: 29.0°N 76.0°W
Moving: NNE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 958 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think Sandy has once again dropped below hurricane status, that area of convection NW of the center has warmed and shrunk considerably. Overall organization has gotten worse:



I disagree, if anything the convective structure has taken on a more tropical look than this morning.
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Quoting Articuno:

Local stores here are already out of stock on a lot of stock, luckily we got supplies early.
The early bird gets the worm.


Based on my almost 30 years of living in this region and all the storms I've gone through, it's pretty typical for the people here (including myself) to jump on a storm early and buy supplies a bit farther in advance.
it happens every snow storm, and I mean EVERY snow storm (from 2" to 2') and it's been happening with this and Irene last year.
I don't know if it's resorcefulness or panic.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think Sandy has once again dropped below hurricane status, that area of convection NW of the center has warmed and shrunk considerably. Overall organization has gotten worse:



I disagree.. She looked worse yesterday in my opinion.. Shear has also dropped to 20-30 knots... Dry air seems to be the only thing currently weakening her. The baroclinic process of strengthening to begin in 24 hours. I believe Sandy will remain a Hurricane by 2 p.m.

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Quoting Doppler22:
Jeff Masters, meteorology director at Weather Underground, estimated there could be more than $1bn (�621m) in damages from Hurricane Sandy.


This is from an article on BBC's website ^^^


Well, since Irene caused $15 billion worth of damage in the US, I think he's probably erring on the cautious side.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think Sandy has once again dropped below hurricane status, that area of convection NW of the center has warmed and shrunk considerably. Overall organization has gotten worse:


honestly it has gotten better.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2556
1180. redux
i was confident i wasn't going to lose power. now im not so sure.

i don't think my relatives will keep power.
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I think the big problem with this one, asides from millions without power obviously, will be water moving in. Such a large slow moving storm, even though a cat 1, can wreak all sorts of havoc as witnessed with Isaac.
Hopefully everyone will heed the warnings and do what they have to do so no loss of life happens!
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1178. LargoFl
aww its not going to be too bad..................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42267
We hope every year for a big storm in the caribbean...and we don't have it!
You are so lucky in the US...Have some fun for us !
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Quoting BaltOCane:


It wouldn't surprise me.

Local stores here are already out of stock on a lot of stock, luckily we got supplies early.
The early bird gets the worm.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2556


Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Quoting 954FtLCane:


whats a newspaper?.... ;-)


touche
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Holy...
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1171. LargoFl
Quoting ncstorm:


okay..so you saying if I mapquest my location to ocean pines, delaware and lets say it makes landfall around that area hypothetically..I would still be receiving tropical force winds if the bottom half of Sandy fills in??..417 miles is the distance...
if the storm developes as they think it is going to..thats a possibility, NHC is now saying at landfall..just the hurricane force winds will be 100 miles out from the center..after THAT..you have the tropical storm force winds...either way..this storm is so unusual in its make-up at the end..no one has ever seen a storm like this and at this point..even the NHC is guessing to a point..we all will know..afterwards..maybe for the next one in years to come
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42267
Quoting BaltOCane:


They get the same newspaper as I do, so I don't know.



whats a newspaper?.... ;-)
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1169. 7544
yeap shes huge and still effecting se fl with strong winds they keep extending the wind adv up to 40 mph for the last 24 hours not any rain tho but will not be the same as she heads up to the north stay safe everyone !
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Quoting LargoFl:
yep those are the folks who will be crying afterwards..why didnt they warn us it was going to be this bad...


They get the same newspaper as I do, so I don't know.

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I think Sandy has once again dropped below hurricane status, that area of convection NW of the center has warmed and shrunk considerably. Overall organization has gotten worse:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8049
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1165. atris
"Hurricane " Sandy with the front about to make contact with her outer bands....
But has the potential to be an extreme weather event
Navy 2km image

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No big changes on the 12z GFS, maybe a tad south of the last couple runs but hard to know for sure because you can't really see anything under the storm:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8049
1163. LargoFl
Quoting BaltOCane:


There are. They live across the street. I waved at them earlier this morning as I was fixing the gutter on the side of the house.
they were just doing yard work.
yep those are the folks who will be crying afterwards..why didnt they warn us it was going to be this bad...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42267
1162. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
Irene was kind enough to leave my power and only a few twigs and branches were snapped leaves were everywhere.Some places were without power but only 3 to the maximum in my neighborhood and since the temps were nice their weren't any complaints.

People here know its coming they just feel as though they are wasting money again.



Hey Wash..looks like the party is still on as planned?
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

And having SST's approximately 9 degrees of climatological average doesn't make us sleep any easier either. :/

Stay safe!


Yep, been posting that Cape May temp for two days. It fascinates me that it is so much higher for this time of the year. Both from a water vapor and as a nice adjunct to the barocline energy.

Grothar said it best. "All the forcing elements are there..."
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Did your family invest in getting rid of the tree?.

Yup.... its not here anymore... and the other HUGE tree we cut down to size
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1157. K8eCane
Quoting K8eCane:


it is according to nhc



that would be really really really good for us in cape fear region
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Bob Ryan ‏@BobRyanABC7
DC 50% chance having winds to 40 mph from #Sandy late Monday-Tuesday Likely N-NW winds Check trees branches north side house @abc7news
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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